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Old 03-23-2010, 04:22 PM   #401
CrimsonFox
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntndeacon View Post
that is because ntn had a choral practice and could not get back in time.

then why did you not change your vote to EF before you left as self preservation
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:32 PM   #402
dubb93
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
but how reliable are the seer and the follower. Anyone they can clear D1-3 are still suspect if there are no night kills.

I mean I get what you are saying but let's not beat the seer and follower into the ground. That is something a wolf would want us to do.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:33 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post

If I were a servant, if Hoops didn't start with me, I'd definitely want to convert him day 1. Just sayin.

If I was on the side of no good there is a 0% chance I would convert hoops if I was given a choice. Hoops is a huge lynch target, and leaving hoops alive is just as good as a night kill. I have used that strategy many times.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:35 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
If I was on the side of no good there is a 0% chance I would convert hoops if I was given a choice. Hoops is a huge lynch target, and leaving hoops alive is just as good as a night kill. I have used that strategy many times.


okay then, who ELSE is good as a villager and would be equally good to have on the wolf side?
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:38 PM   #405
dubb93
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Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
okay then, who ELSE is good as a villager and would be equally good to have on the wolf side?

No offense to Hoops, but his greatness is greatly exaggerated. I would have taken someone safe. Someone like CR or someone who voted NTN. Someone like Jackal or Autumn.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:39 PM   #406
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Those would have been if I was playing the smart game. For personal reasons Iwould have converted Poli.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:45 PM   #407
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
I'm not causing confusion so give me a pass. I took a break that I badly needed. Now I'm back and I'm more into it.

I figured it was something more like this, I'm glad your back as I think you are a valuable asset to the game. Just thinking out loud and tucking stuff away for later.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:48 PM   #408
Thomkal
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Great analysis there Dubb. Of those you mentioned, my top 3 suspects would be in no particular order:

1-Chief Rum-says he has/had an item that might interfere with an evil, but yet isn't killed for it-could be converted. Of course he could be lying about ever having such an item too for all we know.

2-Henry-says he has a theory about his item and tries to test it-says the test failed. Until we know what that item and his test was-there's no way to prove it and could be all made up.

3-Darth Vilus-for saying no one should be giving away any information so soon. I think its paramount we get out as much information as we can early on before more conversions can take place. Because any information that comes out becomes less and less reliable after conversions take place.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:50 PM   #409
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
If I was on the side of no good there is a 0% chance I would convert hoops if I was given a choice. Hoops is a huge lynch target, and leaving hoops alive is just as good as a night kill. I have used that strategy many times.

I agree with this as well. Hoops would be the last person I would convert unless I was going to out him to gain trust later in the game.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:51 PM   #410
Lathum
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Vote Chief Rum


He is known to be a very good villager. Combine that and his schedule he tends to get passes longer than others. He would be a prime candidate for conversion.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:54 PM   #411
ntndeacon
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Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
then why did you not change your vote to EF before you left as self preservation

fair question.
I had a little time before I had to go, but Igot distracted, with dinner and tv. then it got too late. so I forgot to come back on and look.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:56 PM   #412
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I know I'm going in several directions but before I forget, the early votes bug me, especially the pile on EF and I want to look more closely at that.

EF- J23 (129 ) X ntn (138) Telle (170) hoopsguy (189)
ntn - EF (131) Jackal (151)
single votes at this point: pb- poli (93) Autumn- DV (178) Danny - dubb (183) Telle - CF (185) j23 - ntn (184)

telle 176 - throws vote #3 out making it 3-2, avoids telling why, then when asked, gives a bad reason. reminds me of a few games ago.

ntn 184 - he gives a reason for changing his vote, agreeing with autumn, but then votes randomly (so he says) off of the favorite for a weird reason

j23 129 - Not a lot of feel here as he was the first EF vote. Not a great reason but not really suspicious.

hoops 189 - after ntn jumps ship, makes it 3-2 again. was ntn saving hoops' seat? :P


Aside from the weirdness of ntn's jump I am very suspicious of telle/hoops.
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Old 03-23-2010, 04:57 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
I mean I get what you are saying but let's not beat the seer and follower into the ground. That is something a wolf would want us to do.

I agree, I mean only one person has been converted so far we think. Odds are that that person is not the seer, unless the Servants were very lucky. This leads me to asking the seer and other roled lightbringers to not hold back if/when you get information we regular lightbringers can act on. I know the benefits that you can get from holding back this information, but this does not seem to be the game to risk it given the strong conversion factor.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:01 PM   #414
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It scares me when several people start to have similar ideas that i do. either the thing I saw was very clear and probably a red herring, or an attempt to make something of seeming value to obfuscate the real villians. Only rarely does it turn out in our favor.

I say this because I too was looking at CR and henry. before I go that route now I do want to consider other alternatives first.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:05 PM   #415
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
CR

*CR starts the game by saying his participation will be limited.
*Claims to be a "Normal Lightbringer."
*Says he has an item that will interfere with an "evil role" mentioned in the writeup.
*Says his item would have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role.
*Says his item is not a weapon.
*Engaged Abe in a back and forth about what would happen if an item was passed to a role that does not exist.
*Votes J23 because he doesn't like a question J23 asked of Abe. CR says:



In regards to



*CR States he passed his item to someone he thinks would use it better than he could.
*CR seems to think the sheriff now has the Colt that was taken from EF during his lynch.

Good work done here, dubb, but some clarifications.

You have characterized what I was saying with lots of "will"s and "does", but I was believe I was pretty clear that what I was talking was more "could"s and "mights". I did not receive any instructions with my item, so any thoughts on its use is entirely my best guess based on what the item is.

I don't know if it will affect the "evil role" I am guessing is in this game, based on the writeup. I don't know if the item would have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role. I don't even know that it's not a weapon--just certainly not an item I would normally label as a weapon in its normal use.

I also do not necessarily think the Colt Peacemaker is in the game still nor do I presume the Sheriff has it. I was merely throwing out the possibility, as I do not believe Abe's writeup conclusively removed it from the game, and reasoning that the Sheriff might have ended up with it is based purely on a read of Abe's statement "confiscated for investigation".

I did indeed pass the item to the role I intended and did not receive it back, so I presume that role is indeed in the game.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:06 PM   #416
J23
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vote Chief Rum

With a little backup of my suspicions, I feel better making this vote. I was worried it was just me looking for a reason since he put a vote on me yesterday.

Leaving work now, not sure if I'll get a chance to get on before I head out for my b-day tonight. I definately won't be able to be around at/near deadline.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:07 PM   #417
ntndeacon
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I think that that Peacemaker is no longer in the game. I think that either there could be another or another could be made.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:09 PM   #418
J23
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And as soon as I vote CR shows up with a bit more clarity. I'll try to re-look at this stuff when I get home.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:12 PM   #419
henry296
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My item did not come with any description, so I tried to infere some of its power. The name of the item made me think about the lover role. I passed it to a specific individual. I more than willing to disclose more information if necessary.

As for the vote tonight, I won't vote for DV, given his statement that he will be out until later. Also, I think ntn is ok given the lack of movement last night. Therefore, I'm going to put a placeholder vote out there in case I get tied up later tonight. Honestly, however, this is not based on a "facts" but I also don't think we need another random candidate right now.

Vote Chief Rum
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:13 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
I mean I get what you are saying but let's not beat the seer and follower into the ground. That is something a wolf would want us to do.
I agree. I think our CoT looks different, but the seer is more, not less, important the way this game is structured.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:13 PM   #421
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Since CR is implying that I took him out of context let me find the two posts in question and I will also add my interpretation.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:13 PM   #422
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Just to be clear:
CR is a good villager ergo we convert him, is the logic behind the vote?

Can't say I'm a fan of voting off good villagers.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:14 PM   #423
Chief Rum
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BTW, I don't have any issue with the good analysis that puts me down as suspicious. I have no way to prove otherwise. My vote yesterday was weak, but I didn't have the luxury of being around later to consider deadline vote changes. Day One votes are what they are--I even said at the time I was reaching on J23, because I didn't have any standout reason against too many people.

And when you get right down to it, none of us had good reasons, and none of us have lynched a wolf, so it seems silly to focus on my "weak" reason when few if any of the rest of you had any good reason either.

That said, you lose nothing in lynching me (besides a villager), as I have no role. I have to acknowledge I am indeed a candidate for conversion, so it might be best for the village to remove me altogether. My participation is necessarily low, so I am not able to contribute as much as normal. So lynching me is not a bad idea. I don't advocate it of course, but I don't blame anyone voting for me.

I will only point out that lynching non-EF/NTN voters is based on the rpesumption of NTN's innocence, which perhaps should be verified (although I think he's a villager, too--he is targeted quickly on Day One way too often).
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:15 PM   #424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Just to be clear:
CR is a good villager ergo we convert him, is the logic behind the vote?

Can't say I'm a fan of voting off good villagers.

There is a lot more to it than that, don't make it sound so one dimensional.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:15 PM   #425
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
Since CR is implying that I took him out of context let me find the two posts in question and I will also add my interpretation.

So we take your interpretation of what I meant over what I meant? lol...okay.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:16 PM   #426
dubb93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CR
With all the Lightbringer roles, I half expected to get one, but no, I am a normal Lightbringer.

I did receive an item (of course), and I don't know what it does. I can take a reasonable guess that, with as many times as a particular evil "role" was mentioned in the writeup, that if that role does indeed exist, my item will get in the way of it doing its thing.

I can also surmise from the item I have received that it might have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role, but I am undecided on if I should pass it.

My interpretation -

*Says he has an item that will interfere with an "evil role" mentioned in the writeup.
*Says his item would have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum
Are we so sure the Colt is lost? The above statement in yesterdaay's lynch writeup doesn't necessarily say it's gone forever. In fact, it's possible that "confiscate as evidence" means it's with the Sheriff now.

My interpretation -

*CR seems to think the sheriff now has the Colt that was taken from EF during his lynch.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:17 PM   #427
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So we take your interpretation of what I meant over what I meant? lol...okay.

Look at my post. I think you will find it fair. I'm not trying to railroad you here. I was just calling it as I saw it.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:18 PM   #428
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I'm going with my hunch. Between Telle and Hoops,

VOTE TELLE
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:18 PM   #429
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Well failing a better candidate, 424 is making me lean towards CR. Someone who says they're an OK lynch target seems like an OK lynch target to me.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:19 PM   #430
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There is a lot more to it than that, don't make it sound so one dimensional.
The more to it being dubb's analysis?
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:20 PM   #431
dubb93
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I think someone other than myself should do what I did with the third party voters and do it for the EF votes. And then a third person should snag the NTN voters.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:21 PM   #432
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I would do it but I'm not going to have time to get it done before I have to go out to eat.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:27 PM   #433
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Originally Posted by henry296 View Post
As for the vote tonight, I won't vote for DV, given his statement that he will be out until later.

You are either being really nice or this is really good wolf cover. I wouldn't mind seeing either Henry or DV involved in the runoff tonight.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:27 PM   #434
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Poor dola etiquette above, I apologize in advance.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:28 PM   #435
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post

My quote in italics:

With all the Lightbringer roles, I half expected to get one, but no, I am a normal Lightbringer.

I did receive an item (of course), and I don't know what it does. I can take a reasonable guess that, with as many times as a particular evil "role" was mentioned in the writeup, that if that role does indeed exist, my item will get in the way of it doing its thing.

I can also surmise from the item I have received that it might have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role, but I am undecided on if I should pass it.


My interpretation -

*Says he has an item that will interfere with an "evil role" mentioned in the writeup.
*Says his item would have more power in the hands of a particular Lightbringer role.

***

My quote in italics:

Are we so sure the Colt is lost? The above statement in yesterdaay's lynch writeup doesn't necessarily say it's gone forever. In fact, it's possible that "confiscate as evidence" means it's with the Sheriff now.


My interpretation -

*CR seems to think the sheriff now has the Colt that was taken from EF during his lynch.

I bolded the key parts you have glazed over, dubb. For what reasons you may have, you seem to want to make it seem like I am speaking with far my conviction and certainty than I actually am. IMO, that misrepresentation makes me appear far more knowledgeable than I actually am.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:29 PM   #436
Chief Rum
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Whoops, forgot quotes italicize everything. My original quotes above are between the "my quotes in italics" and dubb's "my interpretation".
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:32 PM   #437
Chief Rum
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Well failing a better candidate, 424 is making me lean towards CR. Someone who says they're an OK lynch target seems like an OK lynch target to me.

I am saying it's not unreasonable to consider lynching me, given the circumstances and analysis that is out there, and I don't hold anyone accountable for that decision. Also, for a negative decision for the village, it is the least painful decision (no role, no item, no special knowledge, limited participation).

All that said, it IS a negative village decision. I am just a villager. You don't lynch a wolf by lynching me today.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:33 PM   #438
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Those would have been if I was playing the smart game. For personal reasons Iwould have converted Poli.

This is how I *know* Dubb is not a wolf. You're my boy, blue. Screw you for the red dress comment, though.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:33 PM   #439
J23
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unvote CR

While it's certainly not the worst thing to lynch a VV that gave away his item, I'm not sure we learn very much if we do in fact lynch him tonight
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:34 PM   #440
Chief Rum
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Okay, I have to get back to work. I'll check in a little later. I am home tonight at least, so I should eb around for deadline (although I'll be drafting in the WW baseball league at the same time).
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:37 PM   #441
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You are either being really nice or this is really good wolf cover. I wouldn't mind seeing either Henry or DV involved in the runoff tonight.

Note this is the second "follow the leader" vote from henry. Yes I know that's up to interpretation but it's just on my radar.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:40 PM   #442
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Well lets test the Henry thing. I'm going to be heading out, and my vote WAS going to go on DV, but I think with Henry saying he won't vote him that I am going to change my vote to Henry since he was already on my radar.

Vote Henry

If I make it back before deadline I would be willing to re-evaluate my vote.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:41 PM   #443
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unvote CR

While it's certainly not the worst thing to lynch a VV that gave away his item, I'm not sure we learn very much if we do in fact lynch him tonight
See to me CR's move could easily be a "Please don't throw me in that briar patch" sort of move.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:42 PM   #444
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I can see not voting for someone that won't be around at deadline since they won't get a chance to reveal if a run starts on them.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:44 PM   #445
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I can see not voting for someone that won't be around at deadline since they won't get a chance to reveal if a run starts on them.

The thing is though that DV appeared on 3 different peoples posted distrust list. I think he was the the only common denominator on the three. The three being Thomkal, Lathum, and myself.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:44 PM   #446
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In general I think revealing your availability to be foolish.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:45 PM   #447
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The thing is though that DV appeared on 3 different peoples posted distrust list. I think he was the the only common denominator on the three. The three being Thomkal, Lathum, and myself.
Weren't you using similar logic though?
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:46 PM   #448
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See to me CR's move could easily be a "Please don't throw me in that briar patch" sort of move.

I definately considered that. I'm going back and forth right now between trying to hunt for a wolf w/ a vote on a gut call, or a vote on ntn to give some potential history to last night's vote as Autumn pointed out earlier today.
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:46 PM   #449
dubb93
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Weren't you using similar logic though?

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Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 03-23-2010, 05:47 PM   #450
dubb93
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Weren't you using similar logic though?

If you are talking about availability then no. Please if you think I am the best lynch candidate today then vote me no matter if I am around or not. You would be foolish for voting me, but do what you must.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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