Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[path12]

OK, I'm back from a delightful evening at the track with friends and family. A couple of winning bets are the only thing that could have made it better. Sorry for the delay.

I would have done the nightfall but ended up away from my desk in meetings this afternoon.

Final vote totals:

st.cronin (3) -- DaddyTorgo (324), Chief Rum (348), hoopsguy (351)
DaddyTorgo (2) -- st.cronin (323), ntndeacon (342)

Flavor, schmavor. st.cronin was killed quickly and transformed before your eyes!

ST.CRONIN WAS A WOLF.

NIGHT 3 WILL BE PROCESSED WHEN ALL ORDERS RECEIVED OR 6PM EASTERN TOMORROW.

I am leaning towards a long weekend day, but will honor nightfall votes, so the pace will be up to you guys -- I'll be around for the most part.

[DaddyTorgo]

WOOT!! THAT'S FRIGGIN HOT!!! CRONIN WAS A WOLFISH BASTARD!

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...so we have till 6pm tomorrow for night if we want it guys.

Path...i think the guys may have already sent in their night orders, so i'm going to hold off on sending mine in purposely because in light of cronin being a wolf i'd like to discuss with the guys (assuming they're around tomorrow) what they want to do scans-wise.

[Chief Rum]

I felt all along this was the right way about it. 1/16 is an awfully small chance for cronin to have been good.

I'm open to suggestion on a scanning plan, but I'll remind you I don't think this does much to change my belief you are the prime suspect for the last wolf.

I think we have two clear groupings here.

Group A (wolfish)

DT (very wolfish evidence-wise)
NTN (somewhat wolfish)

Group B (not wolfish/lightly cleared)

CR
hoops

I think Group B should scan Group A and A should scan B. Does that make sense?

NTN has already scanned me, so I would guess he should scan hoops, while you should scan me. On our end, I should scan NTN and hoops DT. I haven't scanned NTN, so that works for me. Not sure if hoops has scanned you. If he has, I'm not sure if there is a way to switch things around so that we don't have a "head to head" set of scans or repeat scans and still keep it to the groupings.

But, anyway, that's what I am throwing out there.

[Chief Rum]

And BTW, on the assumption we would not see a morning sim, I had not sent in night orders either, so I am not locked into anything. I will wait to discuss as well, although it would be nice to hash out a plan fairly early tomorrow if possible.

[DaddyTorgo]

CR...i'm not the other wolf. i've said that all along. Evidence be-dammed. There's only one scan I believe that shows me as a wolf. That's 25% chance that it was wrong. That's still a fairly decent shot that it was wrong. Given, we only have the same evidence that ntn is wrong (i believe). But he has been much more classically "laying back" while cronin played a louder, more involved wolf.

i'm not a wolf. I know that for a fact. I will for sure be up to watch the nfl draft, so we can hash out a plan early tomorrow and nightfall and hopefully get this game over with by dinnertime tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

CR, I'm really not sure how much coordination needs to happen on these scans to be honest if our assumptions are correct:

- one of us is dead come morning (assuming we are both students)
- so coordinating our scans becomes meaningless
- the wolf out of DT/NTN is almost certain to say that they scanned the other and they are a wolf, which will either support or refute or findings depending on if we hit our 75%

I'll scan NTN and hope to be around to report my results. He came up student for me yesterday and the same 1 in 16 that was in play with Cronin would have to come up again for him to be falsely viewed twice.

Chief, you scan DT and hope to be around to report your results. He came up wolf for you yesterday and the same 1 in 16 that was in play with Cronin would have to come up again for him to be falsely viewed twice.

We've already said that we are willing to take our chances on 1 in 16 (although it would really be 1 in 4 at this point, with the first 1 in 4 out of the way, if true) to lose the game. The only way this plan doesn't work is if the last wolf leaves both Chief and I alive to create doubt about our "relatively non-scanned" status. Would take big stones to go down that path.

And I'm willing to concede the game if I'm wrong about Chief. After missing on Day 1 we had to make some assumptions along the way and this is the one I've made, for better or worse.

[st.cronin]

boooooooooooo I don't like that result

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm a student, so I will scan whoever you guys think I should scan.

[hoopsguy]

DT, just pick the person you think is most likely to be a wolf out of the bunch. I really don't think there is a clear-cut "winning" strategy at this point. Hopefully the 75% works out correctly for the students around to report on Day 4.

[DaddyTorgo]

really doesn't matter anyways, as I suspect I have very little traction. If I come back and say that either you or CR is a wolf I seriously doubt ntn is going to believe me.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...i sent in a scan action. I'm going to not say who it is right now, because I don't want the wolves knocking that person off and making the scan worthless.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[ntndeacon]

i really think that both hoops and Chief should pick the same person. that way the wolf won't be able to stop the scan of whomever it is.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

okay...i sent in a scan action. I'm going to not say who it is right now, because I don't want the wolves knocking that person off and making the scan worthless.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

oh I am quite sure your "scan " wont be worthless, since you direct who gets killed.

[ntndeacon]

I have no problem telling who iscanned. I am scanning the only person I KNOW will be here after 6....DaddyTorgio.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I'm sending in my scan order right now.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[path12]

This is exhausting. Once again you fall fast asleep after the exertions of scanning. And once again when you awake, you find one of your own torn to shreds where they sat......this time it is hoopsguy.

HOOPSGUY WAS A STUDENT.

DAY 4 HAS BEGUN. DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN SUNDAY. NIGHTFALL WILL BE EARLIER IF A MAJORITY VOTES FOR IT.

[DaddyTorgo]

dammit. I scanned hoops. He came back student.

shoulda picked CR!

[DaddyTorgo]

ntn...i'm not a wolf.

Pretty convienent that you've been all over me and now you're the one to scan me and i'm sure you'll say I came back wolf so you can get CR to off me with you so you can win hmm?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

dammit. I scanned hoops. He came back student.

shoulda picked CR!

Why, so you could report me a student, too? Or would instead say I'm a wolf to save yourself? You came back wolf to me again.

VOTE DADDYTORGO

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not a wolf!!!

ntn...please tell me I came back a student to you. Then we'll know that it's chief rum who's the dirty wolf

[DaddyTorgo]

I honestly felt like whoever between CR+hoops was still alive was likely the last wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm gonna pull my damm hair out. If you're not a wolf...believe me dammit!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I honestly felt like whoever between CR+hoops was still alive was likely the last wolf.

But one of us had to live no matter what? What if neither of us was a wolf (as in now)? I'm not sure how your reasoning makes any sense.

NTN, I hope you come on soon. You already know I'm a student. If I somehow rolled up wolf twice wrongly on DT (and we know the low odds of that), then us villagers are screwed and you're going to win. But I am guessing my rolls aren't wrong, and DT is our guy.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But one of us had to live no matter what? What if neither of us was a wolf (as in now)? I'm not sure how your reasoning makes any sense.

NTN, I hope you come on soon. You already know I'm a student. If I somehow rolled up wolf twice wrongly on DT (and we know the low odds of that), then us villagers are screwed and you're going to win. But I am guessing my rolls aren't wrong, and DT is our guy.

YOUR ROLLS ARE WRONG CHIEF!!!

[DaddyTorgo]

I dunno how it made sense either. I just know that either you or ntn is the last wolf. So I have a 50% chance of picking the last wolf. But I have like next to no chance of convincing you guys of that, so I guess it doesn't really matter

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

YOUR ROLLS ARE WRONG CHIEF!!!

DT, I'm sorry, but I have to go with what I am seeing with my scans. If I am wrong, then we got royally screwed with random.org. It wouldn't be the first time, unfortunately. All I can say is what I am seeing.

So if you're not a wolf, we're goners. But the evidence against you is much moire compelling than against NTN.

[DaddyTorgo]

trying to stir crap up and throw things at the wall and see if something makes sense.

you're not getting a nightfall vote out of me. if the other student is insistent on losing this game for us, i'm going to make them wait dammit.

you submit that you're a student CR? will you state that conclusively...that your victory conditions will only be fulfilled if the students win?

what about you ntn? will you state that you are a student and your victory conditions will be met if the students win?

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not a wolf chief! so you're the one screwing us.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

trying to stir crap up and throw things at the wall and see if something makes sense.

you're not getting a nightfall vote out of me. if the other student is insistent on losing this game for us, i'm going to make them wait dammit.

you submit that you're a student CR? will you state that conclusively...that your victory conditions will only be fulfilled if the students win?

what about you ntn? will you state that you are a student and your victory conditions will be met if the students win?

Nice, so make us all wait? To what end? A new game is starting on Monday. Why drag this out? To satisfy your own pique? Come on, DT, you're better than that.

I will say your desperation gives me a little doubt. It's hard to fake that, But I have also seen wolves whoa re desperate. Even in this game, st. cronin made some compelling statements, IMO, before going down as a wolf after all. Some people are good at that, and I don't know that I could discount you pulling that off.

And that's if I choose to ignore my scans, which say you're a wolf (twice) and NTN is a student.

As for your question to me, yes, if the students win, I win. Although I don't know what good asking does. How many ways can you ask "Are you a wolf?" for it do any good? If a wolf has been lyingg (and I assume he has), why would he suddenly come clean now?

This only makes me feel more secure in my vote. My scans say wolf. My scans also say the only other person besides me is a student. And you're doing anything and everything to extend the game and create doubt. I certainly hope ntn sees through this.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'm not a wolf chief! so you're the one screwing us.

How am I screwing you? I can only report what I am told.

[DaddyTorgo]

why drag it out? because I don't want to lose! I havn't been down to the end as a last-villager like this before!! with the chance to win it or lose it for the good guys

[DaddyTorgo]

well either you're the wolf then and lying about your ntn scan or your two scans of me, or you got really unlucky with your 2 scans of me, because i'm a student

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why drag it out? because I don't want to lose! I havn't been down to the end as a last-villager like this before!! with the chance to win it or lose it for the good guys

Well, okay, I guess I can see being excited about that. I still think you shouldn't keep us all waiting.

I'm going to wait on NTN and we'll see where things stand.

[DaddyTorgo]

I won't REALLY keep you all waiting. I just wasn't planning on rolling over and losing things without a fight.

ntn said he was gonna scan me, right? dollars to donuts he comes back saying i'm a wolf.

I guess at that point I have to trust my scan of ntn personally. Because really either of you could be making the wolf-play at that point.

[DaddyTorgo]

but I don't guess it'll matter much. Grrrr...this is frustrating

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I love proving Alan wrong.

[DaddyTorgo]

chief...don't you find it wolfy that ntn hasn't even checked in yet? please tell me you do

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE NTNDEACON

I find it more wolfy that he hasn't checked in here on the last day then I do that I came up as a wolf twice to chief when I know that i'm good.

but i'll be around all night

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

chief...don't you find it wolfy that ntn hasn't even checked in yet? please tell me you do

Tough to say just yet. I am surprised he hasn't shown up yet, but it's the weekend. Who knows what is going on? Hopefully we will see him soon.

[DaddyTorgo]

I thought today was the last day...didn't realize our deadline was tomorrow night. But still...it's weird

[Chief Rum]

Wow, I am gone for 6-7 hours and no new posts? Where are you, ntn? I was hoping we would have some sort of consensus and get the game over with. Oh well...

[DaddyTorgo]

interesting hmm chief?

[DaddyTorgo]

so what'd you see ntn? the truth? or a lie?

[DaddyTorgo]

takin you a while to figure out which way you want to lie ntn?

[ntndeacon]

What I was doing was going back and rereading the whole game. Since for the second day in a row I have gotten a different result than I thought Iwould get. My scan came back that DT was a student.

[ntndeacon]

as to where Iwas ...

This morning islept in. Then went eat brunch...Then went to a baby shower that lasted all evening. fun times were had by all.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...sounds like a fun day.

ntn...do you think chief could be our last wolf then? i'm 100% certain that one of you two is the wolf, but i only have that one scan on the two of you and that came back with you as a wolf. But i'm willing to entertain the idea it might have been wrong.

chief has been underscanned...what do you think? is he playing us? you just reread the whole game

[DaddyTorgo]

UNVOTE NTN

i don't want any funny-business going on here with the game ending accidently