Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[Barkeep49]

Ok ardent that sounds good enough to me. While hoops analaysis is very self serving I'm going to agree that mckerny isn't a poor lynch.

Unvote Ardent
Vote mckerny

Just so all of you know I committed several moving violations in order to carve out 10 minutes so I could get a better vote in. I am not officially, without a chance of coming back, gone for the day to see my brother graduate high school and then to celebrate the same.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1. Has the tie-breaker rule changes from the start of the game until now?

My role implies that the voting rules could change during the course of this game, and that I will be the one who "announces" the change. This could be tie-breaking stuff, or it could be other formulas. I'm just guessing what some of those changes could be: Perhaps if the wolf boss is lynched, those people's votes don't count, or count for 1/2? I don't know for sure that it's a change to the tiebreaker.

I will say this: When the rules change, I will let you all know.

[Alan T]

Hi guys, just got in town. got several pages to catch up here. So am reading now. Probably will take me a bit, but I'll see whats up before deadline tonight

[SirFozzie]

Glad to hear. Now if dubb would just show up.

[hoopsguy]

OK, looks like there is unsecure wireless at my auto dealer so I'll be able to play along for the next hour or two ...

AlanT, welcome to the party.

Cronin - based on your role I think that you become a pretty low-priority target for the humans going forward ... nice for you. Information on how the ties work is useful for both sides.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, looks like there is unsecure wireless at my auto dealer so I'll be able to play along for the next hour or two ...

AlanT, welcome to the party.

Cronin - based on your role I think that you become a pretty low-priority target for the humans going forward ... nice for you. Information on how the ties work is useful for both sides.

Unless one side already knows.

-Anxiety

[Blade6119]

So day one i was saved and voted for the person...now the exact same scenario is happening with hoops...very interesting(only difference is i didnt want to vote tangle, hoopsguy pushed for tangle

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, Post #400:

There is definitely something "non-wolf-friendly" about your play, though. Talking strategy early in the night is, in fact, a BAD idea for the wolves, and yet you were trying to draw people out.

I guess I need to understand what you mean by "draw people out". The whole game is about identifying your enemies. So I think that it is very "wolf friendly" to try and draw out henchmen/wizards. I didn't see a reason to let three days over Memorial Day go by without any posting.

There was another method to my madness, for what it is worth. By putting out the idea of targeting quiet players, I was looking to see if any players would respond by deviating from their "normal" posting habits. Specifically, guys who don't post often that are closer to the top of the posting totals might be guys who responded to what I put out there.

I'm just about always looking for some kind of edge in this game, within the confines of the rules. And I feel the best way to get an edge is to apply some level of pressure on people. So the "Night 0" conversation represented my efforts to accomplish that while responding to recent game trends that felt to me like the werewolf version of a four-corners offense (under-the-radar, to the point of taking days off, wolves).

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Unless one side already knows.

-Anxiety

Knowing Sir Fozzie, both sides know far more then the are letting on about. Id imagine as the game winds down, quite a bit will be revealed, and quite a lot will be suprising

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, Post #400:


I guess I need to understand what you mean by "draw people out". The whole game is about identifying your enemies. So I think that it is very "wolf friendly" to try and draw out henchmen/wizards. I didn't see a reason to let three days over Memorial Day go by without any posting.

There was another method to my madness, for what it is worth. By putting out the idea of targeting quiet players, I was looking to see if any players would respond by deviating from their "normal" posting habits. Specifically, guys who don't post often that are closer to the top of the posting totals might be guys who responded to what I put out there.

I'm just about always looking for some kind of edge in this game, within the confines of the rules. And I feel the best way to get an edge is to apply some level of pressure on people. So the "Night 0" conversation represented my efforts to accomplish that while responding to recent game trends that felt to me like the werewolf version of a four-corners offense (under-the-radar, to the point of taking days off, wolves).

LOL, i did just the opposite. Everyone agrees to target the quiet players so i try to go quiet. I have admittedly failed at that, but i find it hilarious i state bascially im trying to throw myself under the bus

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Unless one side already knows.

-Anxiety

That's an interesting thought.

While the role as I've described would appear to make a low-priority target for the wizzes, in reality any player not in danger of someday being lynched makes a tempting target. The best way for the henchmen to move the game is to have a large number of possible lynch candidates. Not that I'm asking for protection, or anything.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I didn't start the day wanting to target mckerney. I suppose I've warmed up to the idea a little bit by now after reviewing the people who voted for you yesterday, but I haven't yet moved my vote to him ...


In terms of the Tangle vote, there were a couple of players out there where I would have been willing to move my vote if they got sufficient traction. But I wasn't going to move it from Tangle over to you in the last hour (for better or for worse ...)

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The best way for the henchmen to move the game is to have a large number of possible lynch candidates. Not that I'm asking for protection, or anything.

Or to claim a role we dont see as volitile enough to test, and not dangerous enough were we assume the bas guys would target them. Im just saying, if your bad this a wonderful role reveal(especially since you have basically said you might give us info at a later date, and have back-tracked that it will be about the tie-breaker after hoops pointed out fozzie's comments on ties

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, I didn't start the day wanting to target mckerney. I suppose I've warmed up to the idea a little bit by now after reviewing the people who voted for you yesterday, but I haven't yet moved my vote to him ...


In terms of the Tangle vote, there were a couple of players out there where I would have been willing to move my vote if they got sufficient traction. But I wasn't going to move it from Tangle over to you in the last hour (for better or for worse ...)

You started on tangle, im well aware of that fact. I didnt want to move it to tyrith for tangle i nthe last hour either yesterday when he asked(for better or worse).

[hoopsguy]

Blade, are you planning to leave your vote on AlanT now that he is back in the mix? I don't think that we are necessarily locked into a mckerney/hoopsguy showdown at this point, but we are starting to approach it. And at this point the reason you cited for voting him is out the window ...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, Post #400:


I guess I need to understand what you mean by "draw people out". The whole game is about identifying your enemies. So I think that it is very "wolf friendly" to try and draw out henchmen/wizards. I didn't see a reason to let three days over Memorial Day go by without any posting.

There was another method to my madness, for what it is worth. By putting out the idea of targeting quiet players, I was looking to see if any players would respond by deviating from their "normal" posting habits. Specifically, guys who don't post often that are closer to the top of the posting totals might be guys who responded to what I put out there.

I'm just about always looking for some kind of edge in this game, within the confines of the rules. And I feel the best way to get an edge is to apply some level of pressure on people. So the "Night 0" conversation represented my efforts to accomplish that while responding to recent game trends that felt to me like the werewolf version of a four-corners offense (under-the-radar, to the point of taking days off, wolves).

As you should know, and as has been pointed out in numerous games, discussing strategy while night moves are in progress can easily be disastrous for the uninformed majority. The one exception to that was Schmidty's game, with all it's conversions.

Look, as Blade pointed out, I'm usually totally off base with my thinking in these games. But I think I've gotten better. What I'm saying must make some sense, as there are now several votes on you.

[Alan T]

Ok, Tried to read through all the pages I missed. I didnt do the best or most thorough job of analyzing every point, but tried my best to look at trends and how people were reacting/responding to things...

Here are what I noticed about day 1:

- Early voting trend towards Tyrith seemingly based on his performance from last game.
- Tyrith's lead disappeared due to a run on Blade (Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)) .. More on this in a little bit.
- a late run on Tanglewood saves Blade (Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254))

Now generally when 2 people end up in a close match at the end of day1, I tend to think neither of which are the bad guys. (not sure what term to use here since some people seem caught up on the catching people in the wolf nameslip).
We saw that Tanglewood was not against us, and I would tend to believe usually that would also mean Blade is not either. Looking at who exactly voted for Blade, we see 2 of our dead, and 2 others (st. cronin and mckerney). The puzzling thing to me about their votes is people were agressively going after Blade's playing style even though he said waaay before roles were released that he was doing this. So while Blade might be a bad guy, I didnt see any real strong proof for me that he was. If Blade is bad, it would make me question a bit more Hoops, Tyrith and Saldana, but as of now I do not think he is at all.

Now my day 2 voting observations so far:

-Lathum seems to really be after Mckerney. His day 1 vote to me felt that he was pushing a bit too much to make me comfortable. However now on day 2, the pairing up of Mckerney and Cronin makes me a little uncomfortable, so maybe Lathum is onto something here.
-Several people jumped on Hoops based on what Cronin said. It looks like Cronin gave us a role reveal that doesnt really exactly explain why such a definite feeling that hoops is bad. However once again Mckerney is there anxious to jump on with little explanation at first.
- No one has really questions Cronin or his role reveal as no one has voted for him yet. Right now it feels to me on day 2, Cronin is trying to push the group a bit too much for my tastes. Either he knows more about Hoops than he is letting on to or something else is his motivation.

That said, I guess where there is smoke, there is fire.. and for now Mckerney's name is popping up all over my suspiscion lists. I am going to join Lathum for now and put a second vote on him.

VOTE MCKERNEY

one last comment in response to one of blade's posts.. yea its not like me to be in a game that I dont plan on participating in. Now that I am back in town, I plan on fully being active (at least until my customary day 3 lynch that always takes me out) Just to calm any fears, I did post on day 1 asking when it would start and such because I wouldn't be back till Wednesday. I'm back though, so looking to have some fun. I'll probably be going back through the last few pages to see what all I didnt pick up on my first time through now.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Or to claim a role we dont see as volitile enough to test, and not dangerous enough were we assume the bas guys would target them. Im just saying, if your bad this a wonderful role reveal(especially since you have basically said you might give us info at a later date, and have back-tracked that it will be about the tie-breaker after hoops pointed out fozzie's comments on ties

Well, without getting into exact quotes, the description of my role referenced the rules of voting, which it didn't even occur to me that it might mean something other than tiebreakers. It's possible that's all it is; that there is a backup tiebreaker when the wolf boss dies, and it will be revealed to me somehow.

[Schmidty]

Vote mckerney

I still don't know who to vote for, regardless of all of the "analysis". After today, I think there will be a lot more to go on.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

- No one has really questions Cronin or his role reveal as no one has voted for him yet. Right now it feels to me on day 2, Cronin is trying to push the group a bit too much for my tastes. Either he knows more about Hoops than he is letting on to or something else is his motivation.

HAHAHA, beat ya to it lol

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Or to claim a role we dont see as volitile enough to test, and not dangerous enough were we assume the bas guys would target them. Im just saying, if your bad this a wonderful role reveal(especially since you have basically said you might give us info at a later date, and have back-tracked that it will be about the tie-breaker after hoops pointed out fozzie's comments on ties

[hoopsguy]

I'm trying to make sense of the mckerney bandwagon right now. I'm hoping it is the result of wolves realizing that I'm probably a wolf, because that is the best-case scenario. Well, best case is actually that the wolves already having vote(s) committed to me, making it hard for them to change them late in the day without drawing attention.

A worse-case scenario is that mckerney is another wolf and we have a wolf vs wolf showdown that is playing out nicely for Team Wizard.

[st.cronin]

I don't have any thoughts on McKerney.

[path12]

So let me get this straight. The case against mckerney is:

a) He's quiet.
b) I don't know.

Why exactly is he being voted? I also find it rather ominous that there has been nobody show up to defend him at all.

This is likely to change, I'm suspicious of hoops but I don't know that I'm suspicious enough to vote for him right now -- if he's on our side he's a huge help. So in the meantime, one of the tangle voters:

Vote Tyrith (again).

I haven't had time to look over today in detail, so this is probably more of a placeholder. I would love to get some more reasoning on mck though. I'm out soon but will be back before lynch.

[path12]

Cross posts are funny.

[st.cronin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't mccerney one of hoopsguy's original suspects?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, the "orignal suspects" from Night 0 were Tanglewood, Tyrith, and mckerney. They were the three that had not checked into the thread at the time I posted and all three have reputations for being less frequent posters.

That said, I don't feel that I have vigorously pursued that agenda today. My vote for Tyrith was based on the Tanglewood vote from yesterday, after evaluating the four candidates. We haven't seen much discussion emerge from that train of thought. I've posted on mckerney today as he became a suspect brought up by other people but have not changed my vote.

[hoopsguy]

Hoopsguy - Cronin (350), Anxiety (368), mckerney (382)
Tyrith - Hoopsguy (363), Path (423)
AlanT - Blade (367)
mckerney - Lathum (393), Tyrith (396), Barkeep (401), AlanT (417), Schmidty (419)

Not voted: Saldana, Ardent, Dubb

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

So let me get this straight. The case against mckerney is:

a) He's quiet.
b) I don't know.

Why exactly is he being voted? I also find it rather ominous that there has been nobody show up to defend him at all.

I know my post was rather long.. had many thoughts I was trying to sort out. My reasoning for mckerney is it seems to me two days in a row he's jumped on fairly early to bandwagon voting without giving any real good reasoning. I tried to give my thoughts on other's voting patterns and habits so far. The big two I was not entirely sure on was Cronin and Mckerney. I didn't really feel I would be putting much weight behind a vote on cronin since it would be a solo vote, so this felt more helpful for the wolves to try to sort out who is actually on our side here. Putting pressure on those who are trying to make a runaway vote for Hoops also i think is a good thing. It means people's votes actually do matter and its much more obvious when people are trying to throw away votes to hide them this way.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, the "orignal suspects" from Night 0 were Tanglewood, Tyrith, and mckerney. They were the three that had not checked into the thread at the time I posted and all three have reputations for being less frequent posters.

That said, I don't feel that I have vigorously pursued that agenda today. My vote for Tyrith was based on the Tanglewood vote from yesterday, after evaluating the four candidates. We haven't seen much discussion emerge from that train of thought. I've posted on mckerney today as he became a suspect brought up by other people but have not changed my vote.

Well, it was also after roles had been sent out. So, assuming you're either the wiz or his henchman, it would be quite canny to start the ball rolling on THREE different good guys. One of them we already know was good; we'll know soon enough if another was.

[saldana]

sorry i have been off the board all day until now...

although i am a vanilla wolf, part of my role gives me every reason to suspect that cronin is exactly what he says he is, and that the tie breaker rules are subject to change throughout the game, so take this as a supporting post for his reveal being on the level.

however, i also dont take the fact that i believe his reveal to necesarily mean i support his accusation of hoops. again, until i have some good evidence to vote out one of the best players in the game, i wont follow a stab in the dark

vote mckerney

i really dont like the way he piles on with no explanation...never the first vote, never the last vote...he seems to want to blend in way too badly.

[SirFozzie]

BTW, if you guys know anyone who wants to play, let me know. Dubb's on his way out if he doesn't vote in the next two hours

[Abe Sargent]

I still feel like hoopsguy is pushing a bit more than he has too. Maybe its because his name is under the gun, who knows. I still like him as a suspect right now, and I'm keeping my vote on him.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, if I was playing that way I would start the ball rolling on two good guys and one bad guy. Just ask the guys who have played "wolf" with me in the past ... I certainly am not shy about targeting a teammate in my posts if I think I can get away with it to use as future ammunition if/when things go wrong.

That said, I don't know how much value playing the "what would you do if you were on the other side" game really helps at this point. I'm not sure if I should be flattered that you can't discern between my wolf/villager game or disturbed that you think I'm equally destructive to the uninformed majority regardless of role

[Swaggs]

You guys need to try and stretch this game out for another week. I want to play in the next one, but will be out of town next week.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Alan T

(not sure what term to use here since some people seem caught up on the catching people in the wolf nameslip).

That's why I've decided I am going to start using antagonists.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Hoopsguy - Cronin (350), Anxiety (368), mckerney (382)
Tyrith - Hoopsguy (363), Path (423)
AlanT - Blade (367)
mckerney - Lathum (393), Tyrith (396), Barkeep (401), AlanT (417), Schmidty (419), saldana (430)

Not voted: Ardent, Dubb

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, if I was playing that way I would start the ball rolling on two good guys and one bad guy. Just ask the guys who have played "wolf" with me in the past ... I certainly am not shy about targeting a teammate in my posts if I think I can get away with it to use as future ammunition if/when things go wrong.

That said, I don't know how much value playing the "what would you do if you were on the other side" game really helps at this point. I'm not sure if I should be flattered that you can't discern between my wolf/villager game or disturbed that you think I'm equally destructive to the uninformed majority regardless of role

I agree, and assuming Mac gets lynched and is revealed as a wolf, I encourage our seer (if there is one) to scan Tyrith.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I agree, and assuming Mac gets lynched and is revealed as a wolf, I encourage our seer (if there is one) to scan Tyrith.

I think their are far better targets then tyrith...FAR better

[Alan T]

Cronin why are you after Tyrith the way you are? From what I can see its mostly people who got burned by him last game. Did he do something suspicious this game that I missed?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Cronin why are you after Tyrith the way you are? From what I can see its mostly people who got burned by him last game. Did he do something suspicious this game that I missed?

I'm not after Tyrith. I'm just pointing out that hoops listed 3 people as possible targets. Now, if hoops is a wiz, then the safe play is to include at least one human in that group. We know tangle was a wolf, and mac is on his way to being tested today. That leaves Tyrith. On the other hand, if hoops was a wolf, chances are that, just by random chance, he picked one wiz. Either way, that's all I'm saying - that chances are one of those names is bad.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm not after Tyrith. I'm just pointing out that hoops listed 3 people as possible targets. Now, if hoops is a wiz, then the safe play is to include at least one human in that group. We know tangle was a wolf, and mac is on his way to being tested today. That leaves Tyrith. On the other hand, if hoops was a wolf, chances are that, just by random chance, he picked one wiz. Either way, that's all I'm saying - that chances are one of those names is bad.

You present your own counter-point not 10 posts before. Either hoops is bad and all 3 are good, or if hoops is good he has like a 1/5 chance of hitting a bad guy..not great odds to me...i would much rather have some of my higher suspects be tested tonight then tyrith

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, it was also after roles had been sent out. So, assuming you're either the wiz or his henchman, it would be quite canny to start the ball rolling on THREE different good guys. One of them we already know was good; we'll know soon enough if another was.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Now, if hoops is a wiz, then the safe play is to include at least one human in that group.

On night 0 its not, but after night 0 maybe...for the time, as a wizard, i wouldnt mention my fellow wiz's one way or another

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Cronin why are you after Tyrith the way you are? From what I can see its mostly people who got burned by him last game. Did he do something suspicious this game that I missed?

Replace tyrith with blade and hoops already just this game...its how he plays, its how i usually play. Were both usually wrong, but when were right, were RIGHT...our suspects change every hour, and we play to whatever advantages we can get in support. Suspecting someone when it is clear they wont die is useless..keep it to yourself, but for the time being try someone else. He obviously doesnt want mckerny dead, so he is trying new avenues

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, are you planning to leave your vote on AlanT now that he is back in the mix? I don't think that we are necessarily locked into a mckerney/hoopsguy showdown at this point, but we are starting to approach it. And at this point the reason you cited for voting him is out the window ...

Yes, my point remains valid. It wasnt that he wasnt here, its that he missed the vote. If you or i missed a vote it throws up a flag, same for alan. His absence scares me

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Replace tyrith with blade and hoops already just this game...its how he plays, its how i usually play. Were both usually wrong, but when were right, were RIGHT...our suspects change every hour, and we play to whatever advantages we can get in support. Suspecting someone when it is clear they wont die is useless..keep it to yourself, but for the time being try someone else. He obviously doesnt want mckerny dead, so he is trying new avenues

I actually don't have any feeling either way on mckerny. Blade, Tyrith, Anxiety and saldana have all posted today in a way that makes me feel they are properly wolfish. But, I suspect everybody at least a little bit at this point.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Yes, my point remains valid. It wasnt that he wasnt here, its that he missed the vote. If you or i missed a vote it throws up a flag, same for alan. His absence scares me

Even though well before roles were handed out, I made a statement I would be traveling, and if we moved the game up to last thursday/friday start then I would feel I would have to step out since I would miss too much of the game? I hated missing 1 day as it was, but tried to do everything I could to make the statement that I would e gone before hand.

[Alan T]

Dola... looked up the posts. #5, 10, 30, 57 all stating I wasn't going to be able to check in till today. Hope that clears things up for ya. I have no problem with people coming after me for things in my control such as my thoughts, voting patterns or beliefs. But unfortunatly missing yesterday was indeed out of my control

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Even though well before roles were handed out, I made a statement I would be traveling, and if we moved the game up to last thursday/friday start then I would feel I would have to step out since I would miss too much of the game? I hated missing 1 day as it was, but tried to do everything I could to make the statement that I would e gone before hand.

Alan, while i appreciate you responding to my concerns(often with some players they ignore them), realize my vote has no effect on the outcome of this vote and will likely have no effect on this game. It is more a statement vote(especially with dubb dropping out). Im glad your back, in this game and WW in general. I love playing with ya, and dont take that vote personally. I wanted to pick a person who didnt vote, and knowing dubb and his mental state in regards to WW, i picked you. No harm no foul, but thank you again for replying in a timely and respectful mannor.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I still feel like hoopsguy is pushing a bit more than he has too. Maybe its because his name is under the gun, who knows. I still like him as a suspect right now, and I'm keeping my vote on him.

-Anxiety

You know what? I feel the same way. Good or bad, hoops always has a silver tongue, and (no offense to him), I really never trust him. This is purely a gut-feeling thing, but so was the start of the mckerney thing. mckerney doesn't scare me nearly as much as hoops. Sometimes he reminds me of a diplomatic cattle-herder.

By the way hoops, I saw you mention this above, but I don't give a crap about putting my neck on the line and changing within the final hour. I do what I see and what I feel. I see you dominating the discussion with your own slant (yet again), and my gut tell me to be wary of you silky words. My butt could be on the line after this, but what's WW without someone taking a chance:

Unvote mckerney

Vote hoopsguy


Nothing personal, of course. You're the master of WW.

[st.cronin]

Wow, Schmidty with the Testicular Play.