Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

On paper, we seemed solid... +160 in total points. But we only manage to go 9-7. Good enough for the division title, thankfully, but as a 3-4 seed we'll have to swim upstream. Might need a fish tube solution here.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2099

Notes:
-QB Gelenaw finally gets his 1,000 yard rushing season
-RBs oddly reverted to being terrible, not sure why
-No standouts in the receiver group, all around 7-8 ypt
-One OL with 28 penalties, wtf
-Defense played really well all around, no huge stat grabbers

[JustinSmith94]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

-One OL with 28 penalties, wtf

Is there somewhere in the stats you can see this or is this part of some external service? Because I've been tracking all my player's penalties in Excel for lack of a better method

[QuikSand]

...one and out in the playoffs, dang.

Two retirements, both at TE, including our TE1 and our chemistry leader. Surmountable, but nit ideal.

[QuikSand]

...one and out in the playoffs, dang.

Two retirements, both at TE, including our TE1 and our chemistry leader. Surmountable, but not ideal.

[QuikSand]

Early offseason update - not a ton to report.

I traded out of our pick at 1.26, getting a 1st next year (likely in the latest third) and a swap - this year's 2nd for next year's 3rd. With 2 picks in the late 2nd, it looks like we might be looking at several of the guys from my top handful for the first round (including, as it approaches, a guy who was in a coinflip to be taken at 1.26) so that could work out well for a bad-fit draft for us, chem-wise.

In free agency, I grab a good-enough-to-play 4th year WR, and I'm semi-optimistic that we have a useful group going forward at that position. Ideally, we can find a true WR1 to build around -- if so, our "seven dwarves" skirting in the WR2-3-4-5 roles should be okay once they all have some cohesion benefits. (link)

-Honestly no reason to think the team is going to look very different this year than the last two - nobody left in free agency who looks thrilling. There's a big money guy on the trade block who would be a good fit, but the owner and I seem far apart on compensation so i'm not optimistic -- this is a guy in that "high quality player but at a very high, market-value base salary" situation that is the most prone, in my view, to people seeing his valuation differently. I do have cap space to give, at least right now, so we'll see.

-I am a bit reluctant to detail too much here, as my team has become a victim of a bit of free agent sniping, so I'll have more input once we've got things more in hand (sorry, so it goes)

[QuikSand]

So, downside always lurks here - I worked on a stage file, wasn't finished, and apparently left my desktop before submitting it. So, I missed a stage. (Now looking at website) Not a huge miss... I managed to sign a veteran DL who provides an alternative leader for our D7 group. He was intended to serve as a Plan B in case we couldn't sign DE Don Shields, but he also re-signed this stage, lessening that urgency. In the never-sent file, I also put in offers on a couple decent veterans who would have clicked with the new guy, rather than Shields. Alas, the plan failed to come together, and I will have to decide fairly soon which way we go here (Shields is a 7-8 guy, Musterer is an 8-9 guy... so same group, but a different mix if hit/neutral among the 7-8 and 8-9 crowd)

In the draft, I end up dealing down a few clicks in round 2 to grab an extra 4th rounder. So, our top three picks are on the books:

2.24 C Ezekiel Castillo - big bars guy, with two apparent flaws, a below-cutoff bench and a med static bar in blocking strength... I guess that points to him fading, but for a late 2nd rounder, and a potential affinity fit, I'm rolling the dice.. I posted a query about him in the draft thread but to no avail... mysteries abound

2.32 CB Oliver Herndon - a "do-it-all" DB we hope can graduate into a role as CB3/4 and KR

3.24 TE Diego McKnight - major need position at receiving TE and both free agency and the draft are really thin... he looks like a no-block guy with legit receiving skills, and I'd take that for the short term, could get quick action in multi-WR sets right away if he pans out

From here, I would like to add some depth at DE, but that is sooooo hard to find later in the draft. More likely we continue to grab the fairly interesting guys at DB, LB, WR, RB per usual.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JustinSmith94

Is there somewhere in the stats you can see this or is this part of some external service? Because I've been tracking all my player's penalties in Excel for lack of a better method

It's on one of Ben's stat pages... not compiled or easily accessible in-game. Because, you know, who would want to know that sort of thing? *sigh*

[QuikSand]

So, free agency wraps up, and we tie up a few loose ends, including starting C Hucke and a few other useful pieces. That's good. Didn't miss out on anyone. No holdouts, a few contract extensions, good stage mostly quiet.

Our draft evaluation... what the what? I dealt out of the first round (for an extra 2nd) and still got rated the 4th best overall by BenBot. Whoa.

My initial assessment:

RB Phelps was an afterthought pick, but looks like he might deserve a role, highly developed and in the right places

TE McKnight looks like what I wanted, a viable receiving option at TE, he'll compete for a place at the bottom of the TE queue, I prefer more well-rounded guys and landed a solid FA this stage

C Castillo looks good, not great (no longer max ratings), but might well be on track to grab the starting C job in a year or two - basically the high end outcome for the risky 2nd round pick

DT Grubbs looks like a marginal factor pass rusher, meh

CB Herndon - bingo, looks like a very serious contributor, a do-it-all DB who might get to 80+ in bump... excellent hit for the 2nd round

CB DeWolf looks like a rotation guy, good enough to fit in here or there, probably at SS, solid 4th round find

So...I'm not overwhelmed but this is a very good haul assuming we dealt for a future 1st here. Got a maxed-out long snapper at the end, too, as a topper.

[QuikSand]

Quick follow-up thought here. It seems like a smart play by the savvy FOF types is to get yourself a decent young RB, pay him peanuts through his rookie contract, and then move on to reload rather than re-up. Decent young RBs are a dime a dozen, most of the time just don't bother with a full-price guy.

Maybe I just landed that guy in Phelps. He's got three good ratings (breakaway 69, hole rec 63/70, and endurance 66/75) and will be dirt cheap for four years. In this offense, he could be our 200-1100-6 guy for a trifle above minsal, and I would be totally cool with that.

[QuikSand]

Today is final stage before the regular seasons. So, notes on the decisions here and the season ahead. It's QB Gelenaw's 12th year, he ought to start fading soon, but I'd like to keep in the top tier while he's still around.

-Rookie class - we did indeed get three serious hits in CB Herndon, RB Phelps, and C Castillo. The first two bumped in preseason, Castillo basically held, and all three look like long term meaningful assets - like a future CB2, RB1/2, and OL1/2 caliber, to me. That is a great draft, setting aside everything else.

-Rookie DT Grubbs looks like a fringe guy on talent alone, but he's got a chem mix that might make him attractive as a future group leader. But how do I find 8 starts for this one trick pony pass rusher, in a one-shot league?

-Not much exciting elsewhere on the roster, biggest impact in free agency was a swap at ILB (yawn) driven by chemistry problem (wrong guy took the group lead) but offset by a good veteran fit to replace him

-Contract extensions go out to CB Hakim (our CB1 and group leader) and a few other marginals... I'm in "maintain" mode mostly, so willing to overpay to ensure come cohesion building for the short term...one Gelenaw retires we will likely switch gears dramatically (though this team might be a good candidate for rent-a-vet QB then)

I'd guess we're a 10 win team, and a decent but not heavy pick to make postseason noise. We'll see if the backfield running game returns to being an asset, that would really help. Secondary is great, pass rush is solid, we shoudl be fine but not great.

[QuikSand]

So, a nice 12-4 season is great, but getting edged out for the division and being obliged to go on the road as a wild card is teh suk.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2100

-Gelenaw threw it a lot less than I expected - game scripts? 1,000+ rushing again, and 2nd team All Pro
-RB ground game was mediocre, both guys over 4 but under 4.5 ypc
-RB Keller needs to come out in passing situations, he's terrible
-Pass rush was good (3rd overall in PR%), Pass D overall decent but thin on Ints

Not exactly what I expected, but have to be happy with 12 wins, and just curse the bad luck to be in a tough division where that wasn't enough. Alas.

[QuikSand]

We win in the wild card round, then go to visit 12-4 Cleveland, Our division rivals beat us 20-14 and go on to win it all. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

New offseason, okay.

First stage - big mistake, my fault. I put in an offer for DE A.J. Baxter, who is declining but still very solid. I've got lots of cap space, but decided (for whatever reason) to go bonus heavy but bottom line light... and I got beaten out by AVAILABLE. The one thing you have to know playing FOF against any teams under AI control is: you've got to beat AVAILABLE. I didn't. Dammit.

So, we are suddenly perilously thin at DL. Pugh is probably coming back, we have 10th year Ike McKenzie who is okay but nothing special, and then two mid-career DTs (who could rotate outside if needed). And young DT Grubbs, whose 39/89 PRTech rating is tempting to give him some playing time in the pass rush, regardless. So, we will likely be looking for a veteran, even a patch-over type guy, just to maintain some semblance of pass rush this year.

We sit with picks 1.26 and 1.27... no trade talk yet in this league, so I'll likely end up with some BPA types to plug holes. Will take a closer look at the DL class now, though that was on the radar anyway.

[QuikSand]

1.26 is pass rusher

1.27 dealt for a 1st next year, likely late

[QuikSand]

Next free agency steps go nicely - I up my offer to DE Pugh from $24m to $26m, and I get him -- outbidding a $25m offer from elsewhere that tried to top my initial bid. So, that worked out perfectly.

Then, we get the guy I rated as the top defender in the draft - LB Rico Rison. He's a solid all-around LB but my plan is to move him to DE, or at least play him there primarily, and hope he can become the centerpiece of our pass rush for a while. I wasn't sure what to bid - there was an early offer of $35m/yr for him, another team went after him with $43m/yr, but I got him for $47m/yr. This game-within-a-game of guessing what real people might bid for obvious targets is honestly one of my favorite parts of this game at this point.

Incidentally, Rison is NOT an affinity fit (gasp) but needs prevailed here.

[QuikSand]

A couple more notes of modest interest.

I put in a couple throwaway offers to big-bars running backs... I am reluctant to really commit there (since I don't fully understand what makes a RB any good) but was willing to use some cap space to try out a guy here or there. Both got legit offers and rebuffed my base-only contracts.

But in other RB news, a good subtle development for us - young RB Jaylen Phelps (last year's nice "creeper" and decent RB2) also has (I just noticed) great personality ratings to become a long term leader for us - he's a 6/7 guy with 98 leadership and 92 personality. So, given that my whole structure is built around having a QB in the 4/5 group, that could be a long term asset - I will get him starts this season and hopefully keep him around for a decade, whether he's getting the workload or not, that saves us a roster spot (currently held by a useless gimp).

[QuikSand]

In later free agency, I lose LB Heath Kerr to AVAILABLE. Knew it could happen, still miffed. He's a two-down guy (run stopper) but a good chem and cohesion plus, and that's what this team is built on. We will trot out new signee Omar Dow take most of that playing time.

I also missed out on 3rd year LB Logan Foreman - but I'm okay with that. We are likely switching to an 8-9 group leader soon, he would no longer be an affinity guy, and he's not a huge enough talent to stick without chemistry benefits.

I've got 2 1/2 playable ILBs, one very good SLB, and two more solid veterans on the outside. For a zero injury league, we're fine.

- - -

Draft picks:

2.26 - highly rated, lousy-bars DL - BPA and maybe he'll be okay
3.25 - traded in deal last season
4.27 - low RR but big BPR/GD bars WR, scouted as overrated, meh
5.26 - punter
6.16 - stab in the dark DT
6.25 - TE with good pass blocking, special teams, meh
7.27 - best WR left, nothing special

Should have shopped these picks, just didn't have much to like in this draft. Anticipating a pretty low BenBot assessment.

[QuikSand]

So, the BenBot assessment is cheerier than I had figured... my draft rated #19 overall. Not great, but we were in the 26 slot, and dealt away our 3rd round pick... so, we did okay with a weak hand dealt to us. I'm fine with that.

My assessment, based on the after-draft sneak peek: DE Tuhoski will be good enough to play long term at least at rotation-level, DT Starks will be a decent rotation caliber DT but not a re-sign for real money guy, WR Woods makes the team as WR5 or so, and TE Lorz is on the bubble. Meh.

[QuikSand]

Ugh, I did it again, apparently... had a file all prepared, but must have failed to submit it. And so, the AI goes in and cuts all my affinity leaders. A mess. Hate this.

[QuikSand]

So, I manage to clean up my mess, but with a cost. I re-sign all my affinity leaders, but that means they all have to be active for the regular season. And, I couldn't even access my offensive roles page, because of my thinned-out roster. Just a screwup.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2101

So, we end up 9-6-1, that tie with Cleveland gives them the division title on a tiebreaker, ugh.

Takeaways:
-Gelenaw puts in his workmanlike season, 4500/35/17 passing but only 767 yards rushing
-RB Phelps has become a workhorse back for us, 1700 total yards on 5.75 ypc yay
-C Castillo (2nd year, 2nd rounder, 75/75) gets lineman of the year from the BenBot numbers
-DE Rison steps right in as the centerpiece pass rusher, with 16 sacks - but our pass rush overall a shade low at 21.2% (I'd prefer 24%)
-ILB Omar Dow played a ton as the new face at ILB, gave up 40 receptions but posted 11 PDs... mixed bag, he's not a star
-We really lack playmakers on defense - nobody with even 5 picks, we were only +2 in turnovers

So yeah, a 9-10 win team is about right given the stats, I reckon. I didn't get to align roster slots the way I would have preferred, but fortunately the setup got the ball to the right targets, more or less.

We're a good, but not great, team, at this point. I think the window for Gelenaw getting a title may have closed. We have used up some cap space, and I fear we won't have a "go for it" move out there for next season, so it will come down to an improbably wild card run this year, or something similar in out years, as we don't look like by week material to me.

[Chas in Cinti]

Man, that's tough... Gelenaw has had a heck of a career... especially when I certainly never got the idea (in the beginning) that you felt you had "the guy"...

[QuikSand]

You're right, Chas...I drafted Gelenaw mostly for lack of another play to make with that mid-1st rounder. Had there been another shiny object pass rusher or whatnot, I likely would have skipped him. I am not confident about drafting generally, and definitely with QB and RB. If a guy hasn't been drafted in the top several picks at QB, I just naturally assume that the spreadsheet wizards have uncorked a problem with the guy, and he's flawed. Anyway, I'm glad it worked out well with this guy - having a great rushing QB has been interesting to build around. (I confess I still do not understand why some seasons my backs run very efficiently, and others they don't - that seems like a hallmark of the Gelenaw era)

[QuikSand]

Ben's Falcons win the title, good for him.

We have two retirements - DE Pugh and Shields. Pugh was the fill-in guy tiding us over, so we will really need to come up with a legit complementary pass rusher this offseason. Pugh has been a great chem leader, and I will have to do some rebuilding now, as I suspect our replacement will be from a different sign within the three-sign group, meaning some of our current fits will become neutral, and I will have to re-evaulate their place.

Among our current D7 players, here's the chemistry mix:
Ps Yr Name Ldr/Pers AffGrp
DE 11 McKenzie 16/72 11-12
DE 6 Rison (not connected)
DE 2 Tuholski 23/96 8-9
DE 2 Starks 10/58 11-12
DT 8 Dunn 44/0 8-9
DT 5 Luke 58/84 11-12
LB 9 Delcorio 53/94 8-9
LB 7 Trimble 2/54 11-12
LB 8 Dow 28/64 8-9
LB 6 Shaw 31/58 11-12
LB 9 Voetberg 20/22 8-9
LB 9 Hodge 20/68 11-12
LB 6 Dorsch 49-90 11-12

So... obviously we are built around a 7-8 leader. If we can replace him then this is easy enough, but if not... the guys I expect to still be important after three or four more years here are, in order, Shaw 11-12, Dorsch 11-12, and Tuholski 8-9. Fortunately, all these guys are pretty weak as leaders, so I might not have to struggle that badly to stay with a 7-8 leader for the immediate future.

[QuikSand]

Okay, league on hiatus for a week, so Ive got time to cogitate.

To compete right away:

-WR1... we used Sierra, a 45/45 guy with no standout skills as our top guy last year... he was good for 7 ypt, but we need an 8.5 ypt guy to make this offense really hum. There are a few solid (not spectacular) guys in free agency, but no true fits for our chemistry system, one has a red flag. So, no obvious play here, without a trade. I'm open to dealing for somebody, but the real hope will be to land a top WR target in the draft - we have picks 20 and 21, and would be open to dealing up for a build-around target hog.

-Pass rushers. Rison is excellent. Tuholski should start this year, and ought to be fine. I'll try to re-sign McKenzie, but he's really just a rotation-caliber guy with excellent cohesion and chemistry - valuable, but in a generic way. Free agency has no great fits, but we might grab a journeyman to get into a three-man rotation right away with the top two. Plan B for early draft picks is to grab a pass rusher, as is apparently in my DNA coding (if you've read this thread).

-RB1/2, so Phelps looks like the real thing, I guess? 5.75 ypc last season for 1,356 yards and productive in the air game - I guess we're set. Keller is a great fit at RB2, but if I get outbid for him in the open market, we will try to find another good fit here for 50-100 carries and/or a 3rd down role. I don't like investing serious daft capital at RB, so ideally it would be a cheap veteran or a later-round splash.

-QB2. I have a good-chem backup guy, and in a no-injury league that is fine. We have options there, but nothing that would help us if Gelenaw retires after this season. So, I'll be on the lookout for a rookie at QB who could step in, hopefully gain some cohesion, and become a viable starter after a couple of years - hopefully we have that long to groom someone.

-DB. We are fine on paper, but I do have three of my safety rotation in free agency. If we get cleaned out there, then this becomes a short term priority. Long term, I really only have two young guys (Herndon is a CB1, DeWolf is a S3/4 both 3rd year) who look like long term assets, so landing a guy here with eye toward a long term role would be in play. A ballhawking safety could be a nice addition, thinking a couple seasons down the road - and I'm generally open to playing guys there with limited skills, so I'll hope to get a "good fit" guy in round two or three.

OL - Right now, I am locked in with starters, left to right: Woolford (4th, 76) G Bernhardt (6th, 41) Castillo (3rd, 75) Dielman (4th, 72) Darche (10th, 46) and I feel no real urgency here. It's obviously a candidate for a BPA pick, but here I am totally fine going with chemistry and cohesion as the guiding principles... I expect to keep Bernhardt in as the starter for that reason. If a great-fit tackle pops up as my BPA in the first couple rounds of the draft, I wouldn't skip a good WR to get him, but it's not out of the question.

TE. So, I have Noah Browning on a fat contract this year, but he'd be very expensive to extend, and he's a non-chem fit so... that's an open question. Peters (8th, 48) is the guy most likely to be our starter next season, leaving fill-in guys like Badgro and Lorz underneath, but not in the "important asset" level. Another position where I'm fine using journeymen, but if the right guy lands in the draft, could be a target literally anywhere. A middle round blocking-first and special-teamer would be fabulous, I love having a guy like that as my TE2/3.

LB. I'm basically one guy short of a full complement here. I have had not trouble finding role players at LB, and expect I can do that forever, but I will be bidding to retain 9th year guy Eddie Hodge for chem/coh. In a perfect draft, I might not target this position other than for depth, but being realistic - fairly often in the 20s LBs start to look like the BPA, and that could be a fall-back. Best case, we grab a good-affinity rotation-caliber run-stopper with some special teams skills in the 4th/5th round or so.

So, that's my thinking overall. I would like to come out of this offseason thinking we could reclaim the division, have a shot at a bye week, and make a push as a legit contender. Window seems like it's closing. But the free agent class doesn't have another Rico Rison who would step right into my top needs, and I will end up occupying a fair amount of a fairly good cap situation just re-signing my own guys and extending my walk year centerpieces. I think it's 50/50 whether my candid assessment after the offseason is more mediocrity or take-a-shot.

[QuikSand]

Interesting (to me, at least, and if you are for whatever reason reading this fine print crap, then likely to you) I have a situation at OL worth noting. G Dielman is a build-around guy I want to extend this year, but he's a major chemistry guy at 78/92 in the 6-7 group. What does that mean? He will take over our leadership mantle soon - he actually has it now, but I expect to replace him via free agency. So, my longer-term thinking should revolve around a 6-7 leader, not a 2-3 leader. So, that puts OL more in play than I had been thinking - and it's sticky, since C Castillo is our other obvious build-around guy, and he is also a 6-7 guy. I might find myself in the business of searching for a unicorn at some point - a guy good enough to override Dielman as leader. But getting a 4-5 guy or two to develop in this draft sounds like a wise play, now.

[Chas in Cinti]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

(if you've read this thread)

Or any other dynasty, on any other version of the board, for any other version of the game... that you've written over the last 2 decades...

Not that I've read them all or anything...

[QuikSand]

Wish my mom still lived in Middletown... I'd go out of my way to swing by Cinti to buy you a well-deserved beer.

[QuikSand]

So... during our week off, we make some big news. I look at my roster, and figure I really don't want to be adding lots of long term prospects, and give some thought to trading up in the draft... and lo and behold, we end up with the 1.1 pick in the draft. It takes two entire drafts to do it (including three 1sts) but I get what looks like a future stud WR, and hopefully a quick impact-maker.

400 Bad Request

Yay! Yay?

[QuikSand]

So, basically... I should be doing stuff like this all the time, right? An honest assessment of me as a GM would probably be:

-Average or slightly better at gameplanning
-Below average, at least way below the top tier, in drafting
-Very good at managing contracts and free agency

A look back at my drafts from this league, or any of mine where I emphasize chemistry, would find that I am not getting as much from my rookie drafts as other people. The number of 3rd-4th-5th round picks that I end up cutting within the first two seasons is way too high. Sure, I get long term assets here and there, but all told I would be better if I could efficiently translate that equity into some other capital than risky young players. If every year I traded mt picks in rounds 2-7 all for one under-market veteran player I'd likely be better off.

A subtle part of this, not to be overlooked, is that after the draft I can look at the rookie class that remains and see their chemistry numbers. So, I'm less likely to be bringing aboard nice assets that are doomed, for me, by bad numbers (high Leadership / low Personality - that sort of bad combo). With a little work (no, the game makes you work for it, naturally) I can see who is coming into the league who would either be great chem fits given some starts, or who might eventually be great chem leaders. In that respect, an undrafted rookie is really a better asset to me in some cases than a late round draft pick.

It's fun to draft. It's sub-optimal for me. I should realign my thinking more. 4th round picks, who come along with a guaranteed first year of chemistry effects, might make sense for me on defense, but all told, making moves like this -- fewer picks, only at the top or maybe in the 4th, is my sweet spot.

[QuikSand]

So, after mortgaging two year's draft for one WR...

Welcome our newest free agent splurge: WR Xavier Guthrie

Okay, Guthrie comes off a nearly 1600 yard season. The rookie looks like a stud in the making (he'd better be). We might have just flipped the switch on this passing attack... instead of a gaggle of WR2s, now we might have two WR1s. Good problem to have, I guess.

We will be crowded at WR, that will mean some cuts. Stay tuned.

We will be filling up the rest of the roster with cheap vets, guys who otherwise might have been pushed out to make room for 6th round draft picks, but this year - well, at least they can stick around for a chemistry plus.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally... I have to make a note here.

We are married to WR Guthrie for 3 years, with that huge signing bonus. And our rookie WR Bailey, well we hope that's a long term thing too. I was willing to move on both of them despite them not being chemistry fits - just going after star caliber talent.

But:

Guthrie DOB 2074-1-19
Bailey DOB 2077-10-08

...I could see some handsome tight end walking into the bar right about now, with a solid February birthday and this could turn into a pretty hot Galveston porn show.

What I mean is... I know myself well enough that I am pretty likely to turn this WR chemistry group over to the 9-10/12-1/1-2 group before too long. Probably not this year, but maybe once Gelenaw walks.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, basically... I should be doing stuff like this all the time, right? An honest assessment of me as a GM would probably be:

-Average or slightly better at gameplanning
-Below average, at least way below the top tier, in drafting
-Very good at managing contracts and free agency

(i hope you don't mind my takes on your thread quik)


what's missing here is 'excellent at building and managing a chemistry-heavy roster'

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

A look back at my drafts from this league, or any of mine where I emphasize chemistry, would find that I am not getting as much from my rookie drafts as other people. The number of 3rd-4th-5th round picks that I end up cutting within the first two seasons is way too high. Sure, I get long term assets here and there, but all told I would be better if I could efficiently translate that equity into some other capital than risky young players. If every year I traded mt picks in rounds 2-7 all for one under-market veteran player I'd likely be better off.

yep, your last point is exactly what i figured out after some time. i'm better off trading picks than hoping to draft chemistry fits. a 3rd or 4th round pick have some value to me on offense due to the auto chemistry and the guy being able to start in one formation. however anything after mid round 2 has close to nil value to me these days.


the drawback is what you mentioned above -- drafting is fun, so being out of the draft sucks somewhat.

[QuikSand]

Thanks for the feedback and flattery, tzach.

Not much to report here... ofseason has run its course. I just sent in my file for the preseason games - planning to use new signing Guthrie as the FL, Rookie Bailey as the SE, and veteran Foreman in the slot (where we go a lot from 11 formation). If we stick with that for the regular season, I could see them with something like 1200,900,700 receiving yards, respectively. I'd be fine with that - last year we had lower-skilled players hauling in 1100,900,600. Would like to bump up our ypa by way of dudes who can make some plays.

[QuikSand]

File sent in for the season. Rookie WR faded a bit, notably in RR (damn), so now he looks like a nice wingman WR2 and KR/PR guy... not really a mortgage-the-future type. So, turns out, that's a good for alongside my mortgage-the-cap move to land Guthrie. By next season, they'll likely be around the 4th or 5th best pair of receivers in the league, which is good. This year, Bailey ought to have some growing pains, but we'll hope the pass attack takes a solid step forward. For context, last year's WR1 was a cut this year - I just didn't see him getting onto the field much to harness his cohesion effects.

[QuikSand]

2102 season: 11-5, #3 seed
GML: Baltimore Ravens 2102

Takeaways:
-Passing attack did what I wanted... jumped from roughly 7 ypa to 8
-Not gonna bitch too much about RB efficiency but it's meh again
(Look at the Phelps card - what gives year to year here? Mostly same surroundings)
-So, I didn't balance targets the way I had expected... Foreman was #1 not #3
-DE Rison was a monster with 20.5 sacks! Team PR% only 19.2 though, ugh
-Pass D was weak, our 7.22ypa allowed was near worst... ugh

We basically look like a standard "pretty good" team. The dual threat QB papers over for offense being only a big better than average. The defense just didn't play that well, especially against the pass - lack of pass rush undermines everything for us. 11-5 is fair, and we look like a team that can win at home but then get outclassed on the road on the playoffs.

[QuikSand]

...quick add-on thought. This team might have a real shot next year. If either DE Tuholski or a replacement pickup can help us complement Rison in the passing game, I think we can tinker with the WR setup and get both Guthrie and Bailey to 150 high-value targets, and that should be enough to make this team a serious contender. IF, that is, QB Gelenaw comes back and doesn't take a major ratings dive.

[QuikSand]

also, this happened (again) in this league

over time, people just beat any game... in a no-injury league, why not pump your stud WR with 400 targets, if the opposition only has a modestly effective "double team top WR" switch available to it, and even that's only in use a part of the time...

[Pyser]

so ready to go back to gm-only and let the game "coach"

[QuikSand]

No, I’m ok playing in a “beatable” environment. I enjoy what I’m doing w FOF at this point, and being competitive is part of that. I apparently don’t need to be...dominant...to enjoy it. I’ve made my peace.

[QuikSand]

...oh, and we outplayed expectations in the postseason. Won two games, lost in the AFC title game by only a TD. So, that’s cool, I guess. Might have missed “our chance” there, though...got a home game in the conference championship (someone else pulled the upset), but blew it.

[QuikSand]

Biggest news... Gelenaw is back. Only retirements are DE McKenzie, a 1st round DE who became a journeyman cohesion guy, and our venerable kicker. Jimmie Goodwin ends up in the conversation for best kickers in league history...our Ravens selected him as a homer pick out of Maryland, and he stuck for 16 seasons...87% on FGs is pretty solid.

So, we have no draft picks, and will be looking mostly to maintain. If our top WRs just settle in and improve in our system we could bump up to maybe 8.5 ypa where our passing game becomes a legit asset. I’ll tinker with the defense too, but overall... we could be a legit threat. Buckle up!

[QuikSand]

So, let's have a look at the season ahead. No draft, no reason to worry there... it's conceivable but unlikely that I study enough to move in to get picks. More likely I just build the roster this season from free agents. We've got nearly $100m in cap space - sounds like a ton, but this is a fast-moving league, that's only about 16%. So, we won't have the capacity to really go nuts here.

A note - while I really like doing this thread, and it has definitely accomplished the goal of keeping me interested in this league, there's a downside. I just don't feel I can write, here and now, stuff like "I really need to re-sign this guy, he's critical to us, so I'm putting in a bonus heavy offer of $14m per year, even though he's only asking for $8m." Honestly, me saying that stuff as it happens, as I'm thinking about it, would be the most useful depth of this sort of thread... but it's a MP league, people occasionally wander in and out of here, and the last thing I need is more interference with my plans. In this league I have already seen a conference contender swoop in to target one of my standard low-talent, high-cohesion, high-chemistry guys... guys who are worth a lot to me, but not much to anyone else. When a rival moves in, offers such a guy a huge one year no-bonus deal, signs him and then quickly releases him back to the wild... the only real effect is denying my team its cohesion edge. (That player was off my roster for 15 minutes, but has forgotten the names of all his former friends and the entire playbook, got it) Anyway... with my example above, I don't need to enable someone out there to see my bid and say "okay, if I want that cat, it's apparently gonna take $16m/yr rather than $10m... good to know." I suppose I could engage in codebreaker-style subterfuge, but staying quiet about specifics seems like the right play. So, to my man Chas or anyone else out there following along... sorry the deep deets won't be forthcoming here.

However, I appear to be in a typing mood, and am taking a break from work, so... I'm fixin' to get into it a bit here.

[QuikSand]

Where's the cap, really?

96.6 room under cap, initially
----- then subtract anticipated costs:
20 renegotiate DE Rico Rison, that experiment worked
25 extend C Castillo, he's the real deal, have to keep him
15 extend RB Phelps, he's been great and is a great chem leader too
-----
~36M

If that's our usable cap space, that's really not a lot to work with.

And, big issue here... that leaves QB Gelenaw out in the cold for next year. Increases his chances of retiring, for certain. But he wants a $50m bump this year just to sign on for next year for a $78m cap hit. I mean... well, that's tot completely unreasonable, given he's still a top-5 guy, but this team has decided to invest our cap space all over, and we just can't swing it. So, I'm embedding my working plan to lat Gelenaw go after this season. WINDOW CLOSING PEOPLE

So, looking at my "save if release" column, there are a couple opportunities out there. LB Hodge is a 10th year guy on a cut-friendly $20m deal. DT Luke will come down off his FA windfall number from last year. WR Luther Spencer is the guy I have in mind for WR3 duties, but he'd save us $13m if cut, he's nothing that special. CB Irv Hardin has faded to 45/45 (but great bar distribution and great chem/coh) and would be a $12m savings.

So... we have options to make this season work, if we're basically in neutral.

But, what do we want/need to do in free agency?

Ideally:
30 Re-sign WR Foreman (no clue what the market will be for a solid 8th year WR)
8 Re-sign TE Peters for continuity (we won't be able to afford Browning)
8 Re-sign T Darche (decent guess at what that would take)

So... that's around $45m just to get back some of the guys who were on the team last season... not improving anywhere. Assuming I can fill in the rest of the roster with odds and ends for minsal or thereabouts... geez, we're broke.

Shortest way to look at this is probably the WR3 spot is either going to be Foreman through free agency for $25-40m, or it's going to be Spencer (on team already) for about $10m, after we re-negotiate. We probably can't carry both guys - we'll just rely on Lofton and Woods as overflow guys in a no-injury league.

That leaves us, even if we do re-up with Peters, just perilously thin at TE. Gotta accept that. We might find some $6-8m journeyman to stick in there for a season or two, but we won't be able to sign a guy like 61/61 Browning this year. Honestly, I didn't even use him a lot last season, so it's not like we are dropping a major puzzle piece... but as a collector of big red bars and happy faces, it's tough replacing a high quality player with a (likely) mediocre limited-skills Plan C type.

OT is another variable. Darche is okay, and good for chem, but nothing special in ratings nor results. If we find a suitable, younger, replacement, he could go. I can't outbid someone for a 65/65 semi-stud, but would be open to spending $5-10m on a long term asset there, instead of just paying up what Darche demands and nobody else would be willing to pay him.

I think a perfect offseason would look like this, for us:
-re-sign WR Foreman, damn the cost, WR is important
-re-sign TE Peters at a reasonable price (not a star, but continuity)
-replace/re-sign T Darche affordably
-luck into decent free agents at TE, LB, CB
-have enough $ to rent a quality free agent kicker
-pick up a cheap QB2 good enough to start next year

That is not a terribly exciting game plan, but it's more or less where we are, I think.

[QuikSand]

You know what, on closer inspection...

TE Hayden Peters is a sack of monkey shit

That career 6ypt, and last season's abysmal 4.2ypt, are partially gameplanning, but probably connected to that void in "route running." I'll try to find a passable option in free agency, and give up the cohesion hit.

[QuikSand]

Another side note: this fuckin' guy right here

Case study in how I play this game, all wrapped into that dude's player page.

I have no draft picks past 1.1, so I fill up my roster via free agency, per usual. For me, looking at after-draft rookies has a HUGE advantage, that I can (with a little work) see their personality traits. This guy was a decenty-rated C, but who has the FANTASTIC combo of 17Ldr/96Pers in a sign that fits with my scheme. Exactly the sort of guy we try to sign after a draft to kick the tires. Turns out, he not only looks pretty good initially, but he gets a solid bump in preseason...a great sign that he's rosterable long term. So, we get him some "starts" to make chemistry click, and now he's a guy who is perfectly happy being my OL6, contributes toward monster chemistry, and in a pinch could be playable at C/G, I think. That pinch doesn't come via injury in this league, but it could come via a cap crunch. Anyway, unless he gets too big for his britches and wants to be a key starter at some point, this guy likely sits on my roster as OL5/6/7 forever, happily contributing to our chemistry, and milking a football minimum salary that makes the real life version of me green with envy. LOVE HIM.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, it's been a while since I shared a look at the roster:

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Attitude Advisory
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Noted Playing Time    Chemistry  
Gelenaw, Shane          114 QB          MN          3 Affinities wit  
Polko, Phillip          106 QB                      3 Affinities wit  
Keller, Anthony         244 RB                      Exceptional Affi  
Phelps, Jaylen          226 RB                      Backfield Leader  
Marrero, Bob            338 FB                      Exceptional Affi  
Peters, Hayden          448 TE          MN          Exceptional Affi  
Browning, Noah          445 TE                        
Lorz, Mike              449 TE                      Potential Affini  
Soward, Tyler           584 FL                      Receivers Leader  
Foreman, Dustin         580 FL                        
Guthrie, Xavier         517 FL          MN            
Spencer, Luther         586 FL                      Exceptional Affi  
Brock, Mitchell         582 SE                      Strong Affinity   
Lofton, Kody            587 SE                        
Ramsey, Damien          585 SE                      Strong Affinity   
Woods, Eduardo          581 SE                      Potential Affini  
Bailey, Mercury         518 SE                        
Pierzina, Sergio        651 C           MN          Offensive Line L  
Castillo, Ezekiel       658 C                       Exceptional Affi  
Aydelotte, Myles        656 C                       Exceptional Affi  
Bernhardt, Ralph        771 LG                      Affinity          
Dielman, Trenton        778 RG                      Exceptional Affi  
Dill, Gilbert           764 RG                      Exceptional Affi  
Woolford, Willie        877 LT                      Exceptional Affi  
Darche, Quentin         868 RT                      Exceptional Affi  
Barnes, Andre           904 P                         
Chickson, Sam           1174LDE                     Defensive Front   
Starks, Pat             1192LDE                     Affinity          
Rison, Rico             1109RDE                       
Tuholski, Ramon         1193RDE                     Exceptional Affi  
Dunn, Bucky             1295NT                        
Luke, Darryl            1297NT                      Strong Affinity   
Gaus, Adrian            1294NT                      Exceptional Affi  
Trimble, Hayden         1357SILB                    Mild Affinity     
Dow, Omar               1353WILB                    Affinity          
Marsh, Bennett          1352WILB                    Potential Affini  
Shaw, Corey             1405SLB                     Affinity          
Voetberg, Bucky         1415WLB                       
Hodge, Eddie            1450WLB                     Affinity          
Dorsch, Marquis         1454WLB                     Exceptional Affi  
Gribble, Ben            1523LCB                     Exceptional Affi  
Hakim, Noah             1520RCB         MN          Secondary Leader  
Hardin, Irv             1525RCB                     Exceptional Affi  
Herndon, Oliver         1533RCB                       
Flylum, Robert          1636SS                      Exceptional Affi  
DiMatteo, Doug          1643SS                        
DeWolf, Wade            1641SS                      Affinity          
Collins, Warren         1640FS                      Affinity          
Urban, Lee              1629FS                      Mild Affinity     
Griffin, Ronnie         469 LS                        

We are, as you might notice, kinda into chemistry.

Who's here without an affinity? Top receivers, stud DE, two quality DBs who got phased out when we shifted leadership there but are too good to cut. That's it.

And... in case you didn't notice, let's look at that OL group:

Pierzina, Sergio        651 C           MN          Offensive Line L  
Castillo, Ezekiel       658 C                       Exceptional Affi  
Aydelotte, Myles        656 C                       Exceptional Affi  
Bernhardt, Ralph        771 LG                      Affinity          
Dielman, Trenton        778 RG                      Exceptional Affi  
Dill, Gilbert           764 RG                      Exceptional Affi  
Woolford, Willie        877 LT                      Exceptional Affi  
Darche, Quentin         868 RT                      Exceptional Affi  

"Click."

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

In this league I have already seen a conference contender swoop in to target one of my standard low-talent, high-cohesion, high-chemistry guys... guys who are worth a lot to me, but not much to anyone else. When a rival moves in, offers such a guy a huge one year no-bonus deal, signs him and then quickly releases him back to the wild... the only real effect is denying my team its cohesion edge.

That was me, and it was cold, but so was this (you arent the only one who cares about cohesion): http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=66095

[QuikSand]

The GML is, I think, the purest "wild wild west" setup in MP FOF. The no-injuries, no week-to-week-gameplanning setup is part of it, and that helps the league drift toward laissez-faire. I'll just take that at face value, and assume it's part of the landscape. If I allow myself to get stung, it's on me. Squirrel used to murder me back when he and I were competing within the same chemistry groups, that was the absolute worst. It happens, I just need to factor it in.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Pyser

it was cold, but so was this

Well... it's my standard m.o. to look for free agents with a variety of approaches in mind. Among them is the no-bonus, "team-option" contract, especially for guys who don't fit my chemistry, or who are late in their career, or where I don't know that I'll have the cap space to keep them but I need options.

In that offseason, just a couple stages before this, I had lamented as "foolish and stupid" that I had allowed a WR of mine to walk to a new offer, as I had forgotten to tender an offer to him in his preferred stage. That after listing WR among my target improvemnt areas a couple days earlier.

In this guy's case... yeah, I sign him to a 1yr $19m offer, all salary. Old guy, ratings fading, but comes off a 12 TD season.

In the same game stage, I manage to outbid opposition and get another free agent player with a $105m signing bonus. So, that had to tighten my cap situation, I haven't pieced together all the details...

Then, in the next day's game stage, I extend my superstar DE for a league-topping salary, and manage to sign a different, cheaper wide free agent receiver. He was younger then your guy, I paid him 2yr/$16m, also I'm guessing on a low-bonus deal.

So then, in the next game stage, I release the older no-bonus WR. Your guy. Not sure how they compared in immediate talent, but the cheaper deal with a chance to extend got held, while the more expensive pure rental got dropped. I don't recall all the circumstances, but I do know that even when I'm trying to aggressively target free agents with hopes of getting the, I frequently am making Plan B and Plan C arrangements in case that doesn't work out. I rarely trap myself with bonus in doing so.. a 1yr fat base salary is just the sort of thing I do there.

Cold? Sure. I routinely put out a lot of trial offers that wouldn't make any sense in the NFL, but that work in FOF. It's not my only move, but it's one I like a lot and use more than pretty much anyone, as nearly as I can tell. And if/when it leaves some fake players to the clean-up-the-junk phase with a minsal contract in the end... no skin off my ass, really.

So, just for context, this wasn't a simple catch-and-release deal. It was more of a catch, then see lots of other stuff change mainly in good ways, and then release. But cold, granted.