Werewolf XLVI Willy Wonka the game thread!!!! BAD GUYS WIN!!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I saw his post this morning when I woke up around 6am, and the only change as best I can tell is that he simply colored it red. (It wasn't red before when I looked at it).

My guess from this result is either one of two things happened:

1) Bodyguard blocked the attack
2) Sympathizer was attacked and converted last night.

I'm hoping it is #1, but my guess is either of these could have led us to the result we saw.

Oh, now I see what MrW was saying about a sympathizer hit. But still -- why the early reveal? I guess maybe Lathum just wasn't going to be around at this time?

Hey -- isn't sal the bodyguard? Sal -- did you block an attack?

[DaddyTorgo]

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

why the early reveal? I guess maybe Lathum just wasn't going to be around at this time?

maybe lathum sleepy-sleepy?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

Out of curiosity, what track were we on today? I'm not sure where to begin.

I'm leaving in about 15 minutes to drive 2 hours to see my daughter graduate kindergarten, then driving 2 hours back, so I'll likely not be here during most of the day. I don't have really a good feel on anyone right now. We saw how good my gut instinct was on Barkeep. I feel the same way about Passacaglia, where he just doesn't sit right with me, as well as Mr.W right now.

I feel ok about Render, feel ok about Daddytorgo, and have no feel one way or another about Bullet right now. guess since I messed up yesterday I'll wait and see what others bring today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

I don't think looking at potential conversion candidates will be useful. We might as well go with what we know, rather than guess about who might have converted.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Out of curiosity, what track were we on today? I'm not sure where to begin.

I'm leaving in about 15 minutes to drive 2 hours to see my daughter graduate kindergarten, then driving 2 hours back, so I'll likely not be here during most of the day. I don't have really a good feel on anyone right now. We saw how good my gut instinct was on Barkeep. I feel the same way about Passacaglia, where he just doesn't sit right with me, as well as Mr.W right now.

I feel ok about Render, feel ok about Daddytorgo, and have no feel one way or another about Bullet right now. guess since I messed up yesterday I'll wait and see what others bring today.

I'm not really sure what track we were on either. I guess the Barkeep/RendeR type track is sort of what I was thinking. Might make sense to think about who the sympathizer could be or something though?

I know I said "targeted for conversion" above, and that's not how the sympathizer mechanic works, but you get the idea. Not sure how helpful an idea it was, what with there being no element of choice to it it's probably useless. I dunno. Blame that on me not having finished my first cup of coffee.

I don't necessarily want you to summarize why you feel good about RendeR Alan as I know you have to leave in a second. Hopefully I get a chance to go back and read through posts and see if I can come up with the reason why, especially since he's been voting me for like...everyday so far. But I guess that's enough to turn my attention elsewhere for the moment.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'd count a sympathizer hit (if one occurred) as luck with the wolves just trying to remove someone.

[Passacaglia]

The problem is -- how do we look at RendeR? What is there to look at?

[Lathum]

don't take the early post or the edit as anything interesting. We ere having storms and I was worried we could lose power so I wanted to post. During the storms my dog woke me up and I checked the thread and realized I hadn't shaded the post red.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The problem is -- how do we look at RendeR? What is there to look at?

that's what worries me and befuddles me. makes a vote for him easier to stomach than a vote for most others.

[Passacaglia]

DT, you have any thoughts on Wednesday? Other than RendeR, he's the one I'm having most trouble reading.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

DT, you have any thoughts on Wednesday? Other than RendeR, he's the one I'm having most trouble reading.

Wednesday at least has contributed some analysis on different things. TBH I havn't really given it much of a look...I will do so today and see if I can't get some sort of a read on him.

It seems at first glance though that he's playing a typical Wednesday game. I do recall liking some of his analysis the other day, which pieces of it I couldn't tell you without looking back (and i'm trying to deal with the nightmare of migrating our mailboxes to a hosted exchange solution right now so i can't look back right).

like i said, i'm not sure why alan trusts render, I want to go back and look at that a little and see if I can figure that out.

[LoneStarGirl]

I dont know why we aren't focusing on Alant. He is the one that led the brigade against Barkeep. Didn't Barkeep say when he dies make sure we look at Alant? Or did he say somebody else?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I dont know why we aren't focusing on Alant. He is the one that led the brigade against Barkeep. Didn't Barkeep say when he dies make sure we look at Alant? Or did he say somebody else?

valid point. we have been largely spectacularly unsuccessful this game. perhaps he is steering us away from things? maybe not...but maybe. it's at least worth a thought.

we all have short memories...people always say "look at so-and-so" and we all never do.

[DaddyTorgo]

at this point i feel like...with a likely conversion (we assume) everything is worth a shot. hell, you could have been converted LSG. Alan could have been converted. Really anyone. Which to some degree puts us back at square 1 I guess?

Yesterday I wouldn't have said that Alan was bad. But after the night...who knows. I don't have a read on him yet. Everyone goes back to square 1 in my book at this point, which is why conversions are so difficult (again, assuming we had one and not a BG block).

[Passacaglia]

To be fari, barkeep mentioned a whole slew of folks -- AlanT, DT, and RendeR. I guess my thought was that we're all kind of aware of Alan, but taking our time with him, since he said he's going to be out for a while.

[Lathum]

I won't be home until close to the deadline if someone is able to keep track of votes that would be great.

Also any ideas for weekend play are welcome. I can play through since I don't work tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

hahaha

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

hahaha

[bulletsponge]

ok i just caught up. it seems nothing is happening. thats more worrisom than if something did happen

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, we didn't really learn anything new about day 1 or day 2 votes from knowing that Barkeep is a good guy. He was the first onto CR on day 1, the only one (besides cronin) to vote for saldana on day 2, and nobody voted for him on either day.

[Passacaglia]

I don't agree that we don't learn anything -- I think we have to start looking at Alan -- he already made some odd moves before yesterday, then yesterday's result has to cast more suspicion on him.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't agree that we don't learn anything -- I think we have to start looking at Alan -- he already made some odd moves before yesterday, then yesterday's result has to cast more suspicion on him.

like what? sorry i have bad short term memory

[LoneStarGirl]

I agree on the Alant thing. I dont know when I will be back tonight after dinner and a movie so I am going to go ahead and vote now.

vote Alant

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

like what? sorry i have bad short term memory

The biggest thing is that he got things going on Barkeep yesterday, who turned out to be good. Not necessarily a wolf move -- I think it's too early in the game for Alan as a wolf to lead the charge on someone early in the day. Although, he's been on my radar since his vote for saldana at the end of Day 1 -- seems like it could have been a throw-away vote, knowing that he's free to vote for a wolf. That's not a lot to go on, but I don't have more on anyone else -- I've got BS, DT, and LSG in my circle of trust, and the rest I just don't have much read on.

I see Alan has a vote on him already, so I'm going to nominate another candidate. If I come back in the evening, I'm willing to change my vote based on what happens.

VOTE RENDER

[Alan T]

I am going out to the movies tonight. If people want to vote me for being wrong, then I understand.

My gut feel was wrong yesterday, but don't really have anything else to go on so I will rely on it again today.

Vote Passacaglia

[bulletsponge]

man im confused. whos bandwagon should i jump on?
well i think LSG is most likely a GTW, so shes less likely to intentionaly target a villager. also i dont trust alan T

Vots Alan T

[bulletsponge]

dola thats Vote Alan T

[RendeR]

I'll turn into a chocolate sheep and vote with the majority:

VOTE ALAN T

[DaddyTorgo]

back from work and finally online and all. Catching up now. placeholder.

[DaddyTorgo]

not too much to catch up on. Gonna summarize a vote count

Render - (1) Pass
Alan T - (3) LSG, Bullet, Render
Pass - (1) Alan

TO VOTE: Mr. W, DT

I need to think...need to go and do some post-analysis

[Mr. Wednesday]

I can't really blame Alan too much for starting things on Barkeep yesterday... he's active, and he plays hunches on people. The odds say that those are going to be wrong more than they're right, particularly when we don't have a lot of information.

However, as I noted yesterday, my defense of his voting record was not as strong as I expected, and I don't have a whole lot to go on. So I will join with the pack and,

VOTE Alan T

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE RENDER

I've been dancing around it for days, and now finally I have some support. Dunno if it will be enough, but it's the vote I'm most comfortable with. He's been strange all game to me.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

not too much to catch up on. Gonna summarize a vote count

Render - (1) Pass
Alan T - (3) LSG, Bullet, Render
Pass - (1) Alan

TO VOTE: Mr. W, DT

I need to think...need to go and do some post-analysis

Render - (2) Pass, DT
Alan T - (4) LSG, bullet, RendeR, Mr. W
Pass - (1) Alan T

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just noticed, we've got four votes on Alan, which given the distribution of people looks a little suspicious. If anybody is up for shifting the vote, I'm on board with you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I should say, given the possible wolf/villager numbers, looks a little suspicious.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, I'm not going to move my vote to RendeR right now, because I don't want a tie.

[DaddyTorgo]

well i'm around, but i'm no help obviously.

[Alan T]

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Alan T

Don't take this vote the wrong way. In no way am I "giving up" the game so to speak. I hate it when people self vote out of anger or frustration, I think it is unsporting. This vote is none of those things. I fully accept my fate for being wrong for yesterday. I however am just a normal golden ticket winner, and we don't lose a special role with me dead. Like it's been said before, I play my game based on hunches, sometimes wrong, sometimes right. My hunch is that render is more important to keep around, and I don't think the vote should switch to him from me even if people felt it was a good idea.

I'm sad no one else decided to vote a different direction, but at this point, I'll risk my game on my hunch that he is good.

[Alan T]

I see that things are really exciting here tonight!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Alan T

Don't take this vote the wrong way. In no way am I "giving up" the game so to speak. I hate it when people self vote out of anger or frustration, I think it is unsporting. This vote is none of those things. I fully accept my fate for being wrong for yesterday. I however am just a normal golden ticket winner, and we don't lose a special role with me dead. Like it's been said before, I play my game based on hunches, sometimes wrong, sometimes right. My hunch is that render is more important to keep around, and I don't think the vote should switch to him from me even if people felt it was a good idea.

I'm sad no one else decided to vote a different direction, but at this point, I'll risk my game on my hunch that he is good.

sorry alan. If my vote could change things...I think I had puzzled together earlier the whole render+you thing. I'm probably still wrong about it. But I wanted to hear more from you about why you trusted him and thought he was good and when I didn't (which was fine...RL intrudes we all know) I went ahead in that direction, as RendeR's play has still bee weird to me. I don't know that there's a way I can change my vote for the better...but if there is...I'm open now that you have confirmed my general line of thinking.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, I made an offer.

The problem I'm seeing at the moment is, if you and I both go to RendeR, you're saved, but we're back in the same situation that has me worried now, with four votes on one person.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and right now, we don't have enough people to do anything more than force a tie on someone else, which is something I prefer not to do.

[DaddyTorgo]

and render is not the direction to go either, according to alan. not a direction he'd support Mr. W

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE COUNT FOR LATHUM

Alan (5) - LsG, bullet, RendeR, Mr. W, Alan T
RendeR (2) - Pass, DT

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

sorry alan. If my vote could change things...I think I had puzzled together earlier the whole render+you thing. I'm probably still wrong about it. But I wanted to hear more from you about why you trusted him and thought he was good and when I didn't (which was fine...RL intrudes we all know) I went ahead in that direction, as RendeR's play has still bee weird to me. I don't know that there's a way I can change my vote for the better...but if there is...I'm open now that you have confirmed my general line of thinking.

I will be happy to explain after game the reasons I have for feeling Render is good. Right now I would rather not, and heck I might be completely wrong/fooled here.

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Well, I made an offer.

The problem I'm seeing at the moment is, if you and I both go to RendeR, you're saved, but we're back in the same situation that has me worried now, with four votes on one person.

You see, but thats not what I want. I would rather be voted out than him. My preference would have been for people to have voted for someone else, but everyone hopped on the "Easy" target, being me due to my mistake yesterday. When we do that, both yesterday and today it makes it easy for the wolves to blend in.

[DaddyTorgo]

in light of what you implied Alan...to prevent any type of wolf-trickery

UNVOTE RENDER

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You see, but thats not what I want. I would rather be voted out than him.

At this point, I'm not really happy with either of you, for reasons I stated, but nothing's changing unless there's a late appearance from pass, LSG, or bulletsponge.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

At this point, I'm not really happy with either of you, for reasons I stated, but nothing's changing unless there's a late appearance from pass, LSG, or bulletsponge.

Thats a pretty easy statement to make when you've been sitting back and letting others make the mistakes the entire game. I'm not sure who the last wolves are, but my guess is you and Passacaglia, and possibly Bulletsponge.

A small part of me thinks LSG might be the sympathizer and was converted last night due to her leading the charge on me, but the more I think about it, the more I realize she does that somewhat often in these games to me and has always been wrong. She likely is just guessing wrong about me the way I did about Barkeep yesterday.