Werewolf CXXX - Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book - SEEONEE WOLF PACK WINS!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Answering my own (rhetorical) question...they know Zinto and I are good, so rather than guarantee my demise, they setup the tie and hope to get another villager with the mechanic (bummer for them here). The tie makes it look like I was saved, since I was the one in the lead and was the biggest benefactor of the tie. But we already know all this. Just getting it all straight in my head.

But why would they bother? If they knew itw as villager-villager, why waste a special ability just to catch a different villager?

I'd like to also point out that Lathum's vote on JAG was the last vote of the day. That may have impacted the tie breaker mechanic as well.

[EagleFan]

Lets at least have two (or three if it becomes that) main candidates.

[EagleFan]

Out for the afternoon with meetings, will check back in tonight.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can't speak for him, but I'm deliberately putting the cart before the horse. The philosophy I've tried to use the last few games as a villager, is to avoid recycling the same candidates over and over. We lose a lot of games by running around the same three for four days before finding out we were just chasing villagers.

So I think we look at what's suspicious in the voting and bark up that tree. Statistically we get a better chance of having a wolf show up in the voting record, and it gives us several avenues to follow as more information comes to light.

Well that at least makes some semblance of sense.. not a ton mind you, but some

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Telle

This makes no sense. If you think PF is a wolf, then vote for him. You're basically saying "well if player X is a wolf then player Y could be a wolf too, so I'm going to ignore player X and vote for player Y." You're going from speculation to speculation based on speculation. And quite frankly, the fact that Autumn agreed with your line of thinking is just baffling.

Now, if we end up lynching PackerFanatic and if he's a wolf, then by all means follow the clues to J23 being a likely candidate for the next lynch. But it looks to me like you're putting the cart before the horse here.

So we all jump on PF, and what does that tell us? Without trying to sound like too much of a DB, I hardly see a bunch of great analysis being thrown around elsewhere today.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - yeah what Autumn said. We gain nothing by having a runaway on PF today, how does it hurt to put other options out there and try to get some votes moving around?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So we all jump on PF, and what does that tell us? Without trying to sound like too much of a DB, I hardly see a bunch of great analysis being thrown around elsewhere today.

I didn't say we should all jump on PF. But I think jumping on J23 makes even less sense.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Heh, we're doing this again, Lathum? lol

Well, I was correct last time, so maybe there is something to it?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

DOLA - yeah what Autumn said. We gain nothing by having a runaway on PF today, how does it hurt to put other options out there and try to get some votes moving around?

It doesn't hurt to put out other options. I'm just saying you're going from a "maybe" to a "maybe if the first maybe was correct". It doesn't make a lot of sense.

[bhlloy]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I find it very strange that you've latched onto this. There are speculative and "if this then this" votes all the time in WW. It would be a pretty damn boring game with a lot of runaways if we all voted the obvious way every single time.

[J23]

I still don't understand how I'm a good 2nd candidate to PF if the arguement against me is that I am protecting a fellow wolf in PF. It's two sides of the same arguement which still doesn't tell us much.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

And with the way the wolves worked the night, they were definitely trying to paint me bad. Why, I am not really sure.

Do you mean by night-killing Danny? I don't see how that has anything to do with you.

Or do you mean by creating a tie? Because without that tie you were lynched Day 1.

I don't understand these arguments. Personally, I don't want you talking less, I want you talking more to explain how your coming up with this logic because it seems really backwards to me.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

We'll have to agree to disagree. I find it very strange that you've latched onto this. There are speculative and "if this then this" votes all the time in WW. It would be a pretty damn boring game with a lot of runaways if we all voted the obvious way every single time.

I haven't "latched onto this". I merely pointed out something that I found to be nonsensical, and then replied to responses.

And when is there ever an "obvious" vote short of a seer coming out and proclaiming someone a wolf? I'm not saying that PF is a great candidate.. but if it's a case of "if PF is a wolf then maybe J23 is too", then it just doesn't make much sense to go for the less likely of the two.

[bhlloy]

That's probably a fair point. But I'm still waiting for those people who think it's such a terrible idea to tell us where else we should be looking today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well, I was correct last time, so maybe there is something to it?

Wait, no, I think I was right last time, about you!

[hoopsguy]

PF, I caught up and see that you expanded on the Danny nightkill thing. Just didn't want you to feel like I (or others, not sure where thought came from) was trying to discourage you from talking in the thread when asking for feedback on your posts. I always want more posts, not fewer. It makes for more interesting games and should (in theory) help the villagers more than the wolves.

[Lathum]

I don't think PF is the way to go today. He would have been a logical scan last night and I think his allegence will eventually come out. I also think he has to know he is going to be in some heat today, and if for no other reason than causing controversy I think he would have had some sort of reveal planned out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wait, no, I think I was right last time, about you!

well, ipso facto I was right about you! Just because I was a wolf doesn't change the fact I knew you weren't on my side!!

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That's probably a fair point. But I'm still waiting for those people who think it's such a terrible idea to tell us where else we should be looking today.

Well, the person I wanted to look at today is Mckerney, who was in the running for the lynch last night up until 9:30 where all pressure disappeared.

vote mckerney

[Telle]

I don't suppose anyone has a play-by-play analysis of the votes for about the last hour last night? The way I make my spreadsheet doesn't lend itself to that kind of breakdown easily.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It seems people are fairly set on looking at the results as "wolves forced a tie." But I'm not sure we can assume that at all. I think it's just as valid to look at it as "wolves trying to prevent a PF lynch." We have no idea when the order was sent in. It may have been early enough before deadline that they were worried about a lynch. It turns out to be a tie, which screws them, but then they get to sit back and sigh in relief as the village makes false assumptions, particularly if they're ones that clear PF.

I'm not going to vote PF, for reasons stated earlier, but I sure hope we get a scan of him.

The more I think about it the more I'm considering it could be a move to save PF, but I also think they could have done a much better job of it than to force a tie while he was ahead by 2 votes.

I still think it is most likely they were hoping the could kill 2 villagers with the day one lynch abd leave us with 3 dead villagers and nothing to go on.

[J23]

Is this what you're looking for Telle?

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sun 11:43 #71 Autumn votes Lathum (1)
Sun 14:28 #76 Thomkal votes Danny (1)
Sun 14:38 #77 Narcizo votes EagleFan (1)
Sun 17:05 #81 bhlloy votes Zinto (1)
Sun 19:05 #86 EagleFan votes Autumn (1)
Sun 20:47 #93 PackerFanatic votes Autumn (2)

09:43 #96 J23 votes Eaglefan (2)
10:49 #98 Thomkal unvotes Danny (0)
10:49 #98 Thomkal votes J23 (1)
11:45 #113 MrBug votes JAG (1)
11:55 #116 EagleFan unvotes Autumn (1)
11:55 #116 EagleFan votes J23 (2)
12:47 #118 Danny votes J23 (3)

14:23 #128 Zinto votes Mau (1)
14:32 #129 Danny unvotes J23 (2)
14:36 #133 Mau votes zinto (2)
14:36 #135 Danny votes PackerFanatic (1)
15:38 #136 Narcizo unvotes EagleFan (1)
15:38 #136 Narcizo votes PackerFanatic (2)
16:13 #141 Zinto unvotes Mau (0)
16:26 #143 JAG votes mckerney (1)
17:17 #145 Zinto votes mckerney (2)

17:35 #149 Jackal votes zinto (3)
17:53 #153 mckerney votes zinto (4)
18:08 #157 Autumn unvotes Lathum (0)
18:08 #157 Autumn votes JAG (2)
18:23 #159 Darth Vilus votes mckerney (3)
18:39 #160 Dwardzala votes PackerFanatic (3)

19:09 #172 EagleFan unvotes J23 (1)
19:09 #172 EagleFan votes mckerney (4)
19:25 #177 Lathum votes PackerFanatic (4)
19:36 #182 Hoopsguy votes PackerFanatic (5)
19:57 #190 Packer unvotes Autumn (0)
19:57 #190 Packer votes mckerney (5)
20:02 #191 DaddyTorgo votes Zinto (5)

20:23 #194 Autumn unvotes JAG (1)
20:23 #194 Autumn votes Zinto (6)
20:46 #196 DaddyTorgo unvotes Zinto (5)
20:49 #197 Telle votes Packer (6)
21:02 #207 mckerney unvotes Zinto (4)
21:02 #207 mckerney votes Packer (7)
21:08 #209 Lathum unvotes Packer (6)
21:08 #209 Lathum votes bhlloy (1)

21:30 #217 EagleFan unvotes mckerney (4)
21:31 #218 J23 unvotes EagleFan (0)
21:31 #218 J23 votes Zinto (5)
21:33 #220 Packer unvotes mckerney (3)
21:33 #220 Packer votes Zinto (6)
21:33 #221 Eaglefan votes Zinto (7)
21:41 #227 mckerney unvotes Packer (5)
21:41 #227 mckerney votes JAG (2)
21:42 #229 DaddyTorgo votes mckerney (4)
21:47 #239 EagleFan unvotes Zinto (6)
21:47 #239 EagleFan votes Packer (6)
21:53 #246 JAG unvotes mckerney (3)
21:53 #246 JAG votes Packer (7)
21:55 #249 Zinto unvotes mckerney (2)
21:55 #249 Zinto votes Packer (8)
22:00 #256 Lathum unvotes bhlloy (0)
22:00 #256 Lathum votes JAG (3)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

The more I think about it the more I'm considering it could be a move to save PF, but I also think they could have done a much better job of it than to force a tie while he was ahead by 2 votes.

I still think it is most likely they were hoping the could kill 2 villagers with the day one lynch abd leave us with 3 dead villagers and nothing to go on.

Wolves generally don't have as much pull as we estimate in votes. For example, we don't know how many of the wolves had voted earlier in teh day and were no longer online. And the very last thing a wolf wants to do is make a big move at the end of the day.

I still hold also that they have been simply hoping to stop a PF lynch. Orchestrating a tie seems both too risky and too difficult to be the most likely wolf move.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by J23

Is this what you're looking for Telle?

Not quite.. but I think that'll help. Just trying to wrap my brain around what exactly went down last night.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

unvote mrbug

vote J23

Why the switch without any reasoning? You seemed pretty confident in voting for me and possibly Thomkal for our votes on JAG last night, did something change?

[Telle]

I'm interested in hearing from DaddyTorgo. He placed his vote on mckerney after momentum was moving away from there.. and didn't move it to one of the two leading candidates when it was obvious there was no longer support for a mckerney vote.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wolves generally don't have as much pull as we estimate in votes. For example, we don't know how many of the wolves had voted earlier in teh day and were no longer online. And the very last thing a wolf wants to do is make a big move at the end of the day.

I still hold also that they have been simply hoping to stop a PF lynch. Orchestrating a tie seems both too risky and too difficult to be the most likely wolf move.

The one thing that is bothering me about this line of reasoning is JAG voting PF to make it 7-6, it looks like there was plenty they could have done.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

invite zinto

We can add this to all those other funny phone misspelling lists.

[Telle]

Votes as of post #428:

1 - dwardzala - Narcizo (322)
3 - PackerFanatic - mauboy (335), dwardzala (361), hoopsguy (378)
3 - J23 - bhlloy (364), Autumn (368), EagleFan (400)
1 - Autumn - Lathum (389)
1 - mckerney - J23 (419)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

The one thing that is bothering me about this line of reasoning is JAG voting PF to make it 7-6, it looks like there was plenty they could have done.

Yes, but given that they have the hypnotist, they can have JAG vote there and really move his vote elsewhere. If Zinto hadn't come back and moved, Zinto would have been lynched and JAG would be able to say he hadn't voted him.

Just playing devil's advocate here. I agree that it would seem wiser, if PF was a wolf, to have JAG vote Zinto also and get a double margin, especially knowing Zinto could still move his vote.

I can't see a case where the wolves were trying to make a tie though. That's just rather wild play on day one.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well, ipso facto I was right about you! Just because I was a wolf doesn't change the fact I knew you weren't on my side!!

Everyone please note this. This kind of rhetoric is why Lathum makes a great wolf.

[MrBug708]

EF move was kind of odd, so for now, I'll put my vote on him until I hear his reasons for switching his vote without any reason why.

vote - EagleFan

[Narcizo]

Having a hard time deciding where to vote in the next two hours I have left to me. I doubt the vote on dwardzala is going to achieve any traction because he hasn't said anything so we've got nothing to get suspicious about. Pretty much the same with Darth Vilus and mauboy.

I kind of follow J23's argument - can anyone tell me the case against him. If it's solely based on Packer being a wolf then it doesn't make much sense to run him off against Packer.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Autumn

But why would they bother? If they knew itw as villager-villager, why waste a special ability just to catch a different villager?

Because they knew if they tied it up, it would like they were trying to save me (which it does). Plus they do get to use that hypnotist ability twice, so maybe they felt it a good play to cause confusion early.

[Autumn]

As far as I'm concerned, it's totally based on his fairly key vote down the stretch. Combined with the fact that he's a guy I have a hard time getting a read on, so I hope a little heat will get him talking.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, the person I wanted to look at today is Mckerney, who was in the running for the lynch last night up until 9:30 where all pressure disappeared.

vote mckerney

I tried bringing this up earlier as well. Plus his vote off of me over to JAG seems suspicious.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

As far as I'm concerned, it's totally based on his fairly key vote down the stretch. Combined with the fact that he's a guy I have a hard time getting a read on, so I hope a little heat will get him talking.

I'm assuming that you're refering to me. I've been trying to be more vocal (as my schedule can allow) after being anything but last game, and hardly think I'm the quiet one this game that you should be worrying about.

[hoopsguy]

Any kind of votes on JAG by online wolves (traditional sense) seem kind of toxic to me.

Early - they don't want to potentially start a run on the cunning wolf
Late - if there is any sense of tie-breaker strategy then why raise him up?

I know that the wolves don't operate with perfect logic, but this is enough for me to give JAG votes a pass for a day or two barring any role-specific information coming to light.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Zinto,

CF specifically said he would use players names and situations in his writeups, but that it meant nothing-it's only flavor (and good roleplaying flavor at that.) Nothing should be read into what he says here.

Correct. Nothing but prose. I'm writing the scenes based on what the results are or if a random idea catches my fancy, not connecting it to anything anyone says.

[J23]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I tried bringing this up earlier as well. Plus his vote off of me over to JAG seems suspicious.

Yeah, I thought about that vote too, but I'm not sure how to read it. I'm not sure the wolves would have been going for a tie, which is essentially what him moving onto JAG and JAG moving onto you did given the hypnotist move (and I'm fairly sure that the wolves would have known about the vote switch and manuevered accordingly). That makes him look a bit less of a wolf.

I also was wondering if both you and he could both be wolves with him moving off of you and onto the cunning to have a good vote in his history to rely on if JAG got exposed at some point.

The whole thing felt off, so I was hoping to get some discussion at least.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Any kind of votes on JAG by online wolves (traditional sense) seem kind of toxic to me.

Early - they don't want to potentially start a run on the cunning wolf
Late - if there is any sense of tie-breaker strategy then why raise him up?

I know that the wolves don't operate with perfect logic, but this is enough for me to give JAG votes a pass for a day or two barring any role-specific information coming to light.

+1

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Plus his vote off of me over to JAG seems suspicious.

Autumn's right - this game is wonderful. You're saying that someone moving their vote off of you (as a villager) onto the cunning wolf is suspicious? That this is a game where that could even be considered as making sense just makes me feel warm and fuzzy on the inside.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

+1

Ummm... haven't you been chasing Autumn all day and have a vote on him?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ummm... haven't you been chasing Autumn all day and have a vote on him?

Yeah, I want to hear this answer.

[Darth Vilus]

Sorry to vote and run guys but im actually running late for work. I was supposed to wake up earlier so id have time to contribute but I slept through my alarm. My apologies

[Darth Vilus]

Vote PF

it looked like there was a little movement yesterday to help save him. that's really all im going on

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Autumn's right - this game is wonderful. You're saying that someone moving their vote off of you (as a villager) onto the cunning wolf is suspicious? That this is a game where that could even be considered as making sense just makes me feel warm and fuzzy on the inside.

Haha - hey I can't help that it just rubs me the wrong way! The timing of it seems too perfect - especially after he had so much heat and then suddenly none.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ummm... haven't you been chasing Autumn all day and have a vote on him?

well of course I do. I was +1ing the fact that I voted JAG.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I know that the wolves don't operate with perfect logic, but this is enough for me to give JAG votes a pass for a day or two barring any role-specific information coming to light.

Ok Hoops - I know you're a firm believer in avoiding runaway votes - who do you think is a good vote other than Packer today? Because at the moment I think it's looking really hard to avoid a runaway - with voting J23 as a sort of Packer-lite option not looking particularly useful from an information-gathering point of view.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well of course I do. I was +1ing the fact that I voted JAG.

I think you missed the fact that Autumn had voted JAG earlier in the day.