04-02-2007, 04:04 PM | #401 |
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Don't forget, too, there are families with kids who were 5-7 years old when the original Halo came out and they are now old enough that they will be pestering their parents for an Xbox 360 so they can play Halo 3.
It's not just about the existing fanbase of the franchise, but that there will be opportunity for growth there. It's not that the PlayStation exclusives like FF and MGS aren't system sellers, but anecdotally I don't see at work anywhere near the number of kids begging their parents to buy them FF XII or MGS3 that I see begging for Halo and Halo 2. All three titles are system sellers, but there's a definite nag factor in the Halo series that will help land 360's in previously non-Xbox homes when Halo 3 comes out. |
04-02-2007, 07:04 PM | #402 | |
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Exactly. I know 2 families personally that will be taking the 360 plunge for their kids when Halo 3 comes out. There has historically been a spike in sales in the Xbox when Halo has come out. Anyone who denies that the Halo series is a system seller is not being realistic. |
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04-03-2007, 10:15 AM | #403 |
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That's a very warped version of what I stated. I never questioned the sales value of the Halo franchise. My only point is that I think that a lot of people who will buy Halo already have a 360. I'm hoping there are no price cuts around the holidays so we can see the true sales value of Halo. With a price cut, the motives of the consumers become somewhat harder to figure out. MLB 07 is not a 'system seller' per se, but I wouldn't be surprised to see extra units move over the few weeks after its release. Maybe the unit sales jump from 20K to 50K for a few weeks or something small like that. But it will be nothing when compared to the true system-sellers like FF, MGS and KH on the PS3 side. |
04-03-2007, 10:17 AM | #404 | |
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Any numbers on that spike? Just curious what kind of numbers it has done from a console standpoint previously. Halo 2 spike numbers would probably be the best example. |
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04-03-2007, 10:26 AM | #405 | |
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That's because kids don't buy those games. The thought that kids somehow drive the next-gen market is pretty archaic. The average age of a gamer is now approaching 30 years old and continues to steadily rise. Adults gamers make up the majority of the market. FF and MGS are made to appeal to adult gamers. Ever seen the pictures of FF, MGS and KH release crowds in Japan? They're filled with mostly 20 and 30-something men and women. A lot of people also forget that FF and KH are huge in the female gamer market. Also, just curious which retail chain you work for. |
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04-03-2007, 10:56 AM | #406 |
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He works at Best Buy.
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04-03-2007, 11:41 AM | #407 | |
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In November of '04 Microsoft reported they doubled their sales of Xbox systems from the previous month and I'd say its a safe bet they did even better in December. Halo 3 will be a much bigger system seller than you're giving it credit for. Halo 2 sold 2.4 million copies in its first 24 hours and was the fastest selling game ever in the UK. NPD had it as the #2 selling game that year despite it only being available for a little over a month and a half. |
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04-03-2007, 12:16 PM | #408 | |
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That'll be an interesting spot to watch. I knew the software sales were pretty high. I went over to the vgcharts.org and did some looking around. It looks like Halo 2 spiked the total number of consoles by about 1.5 million (they sold 4.5M units in 2004). I would guess that MS would be happy with a similar spike in console sales. |
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04-03-2007, 12:19 PM | #409 |
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04-03-2007, 12:33 PM | #410 | |
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What Kodos said. But the thing is, "average age" is one of the worst metrics to use, because if you get a 45-year-old who plays games and a couple 10-year-olds, you've got an average age of about 22, but 2/3 of that market isn't even growing pubes yet. Additionally, you're trying to extrapolate from the demographics of release crowds in Japan to the demographics of game buyers domestically. Go hang out at Best Buy - or EBgames - for an afternoon, if you can swing it. Watch how many customers come through the door and what age bracket they fall into. I guarantee that while you will see some older teens and young adult males, that you will see a LOT of kids chaperoned by their parents. That doesn't mean they're necessarily going to buy a new system while they're there, but the kids will nag the parents. It's not all overt - "I want an Oompa Loompa NOW, Daddy!" - but it does happen. At Best Buy, kid goes and drags Mom over from the CD rack to check out this way cool awesome game he's playing. Why? Because if he can make Mom look, he has a chance of convincing Mom to buy. And the Halo franchise has been like that. It isn't kids grabbing a game off the shelf and then working Mom or Dad over in line, it's kids bringing Mom or Dad into the gaming area, pointing to the game, and then telling them how the ratings don't matter because "it's fine, I played it at Johnny's house!" You see this with GTA and other M-rated titles as well, as far as system-selling games go, it seems like you have two crowds. The folks who are old enough to buy their own game systems, who'll come in and buy their FF or KH or MGS or Halo or whatever. Then you've got the kids who are either picking things out because Mom and Dad said "let's get a new game system," or the kids who are focusing on that one game they desperately want - lately it's been Gears of War, and I expect it to be Halo 3 later - and then begging, pleading, or nagging Mom and Dad (sometimes across multiple visits) until they break down. Halo 3 will sell systems, and pre-teen kids will be a big part of why. Yes, your fanatic who has the cash to drop probably already has an Xbox 360...but you're underestimating how impactful the younger set will be in the sale of that game. Will it double the installed base? Nope. Will Microsoft go from moving ~400,000 units the month before Halo 3 to 1.5 million or so upon its release? Probably. |
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04-03-2007, 01:01 PM | #411 | |
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As far as the age thing, you can argue semantics, but it's quite obvious from the sales figures that the gaming population is getting older. Kudos for fitting the word 'pubes' into the conversation though. As I said in the previous post, after looking at the Halo 2 spike of roughly 1.5M for the year, you second comment seems relatively reasonable. In regards to the Japan market, while MS is all but dead over there, Sony makes a mint in Japan. It's very relavant to discuss those games and their worldwide appeal because Sony makes money no matter what the country. The 360 is fighting the console war with one hand behind their back at this point because they're really only selling in 2 of the 3 major world video game markets. They've really got to make some headway and it's got to be from the software perspective. Fighting a tech war by releasing something like the Elite unit doesn't help them. They've got to keep playing to the 'more software is better' sales pitch. That's their main advantage and they need to exploit it at a much higher level than they are now. Also, in regards to major retailers like Best Buy, Circuit City or Gamestop, I would argue that most older gamers are a bit more price savvy than kids dragging parents into stores. I, along with most of my friends, usually buy off the internet. It doesn't take much digging to find an online store that you can save $5-10 off a new release. I rarely buy for full price, therefore, I rarely enter the retail places you're discussing unless there's a good deal I see in the weekly flyer. Last edited by Mizzou B-ball fan : 04-03-2007 at 01:04 PM. |
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04-03-2007, 01:12 PM | #412 | |||||
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But as they get older, the priorities with the hobby change. You might still play games at 35 or 40, but not to the same extent and not in the same way you did at 14. Quote:
Yep. If the price drops at the same time (assuming a Christmasy price drop), you might actually have two factors fueling sales. But we'll have to wait and see about that. Quote:
But it's not as relevant to whether or not Halo 3 is going to sell systems in the markets in which Microsoft does well. That's my point. The Japanese gaming demographic is very different from the US, and comparing how they behave and which games they buy to the situations in the US and Europe is problematic at best. Quote:
I think that's mostly aimed at the people who are serious videophiles and haven't bought a system yet. It's not aimed at the mass market. They're trying to convert the people who've spent $5000 on a TV and are in the market for a sweet gaming machine to hook up to it. As time goes on, those sort of technological proselytizers become less important, but they still have an impact. Getting your machine into the homes and hands of those who spend serious money on home theater equipment is still going to be a long-term positive effect for your product. Quote:
Agreed, older gamers are more price-savvy. But how many older gamers buy both machine and game online? Chances are, they come into the store to pick up the machine so they have it to play right NOW, and they do their game buying online where they can, as you say, save $5-10/pop. So even that is going to be tough to analyze properly in terms of the 'why?' on console purchases. Was it Halo 3? Was it something else? Were they just ready? Hard to say if the software isn't sold at the same time. With kids, OTOH, everything happens on the spot...and you better believe they have an impact on sales when there's a major "Everybody's gonna have it but me!" release. |
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04-03-2007, 01:58 PM | #413 | |
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I get the feeling I didn't make my point adequately. I was only responding to the point concerning the 'kid frenzy' where they bring in their parents to buy things and your point that it doesn't happen with FF, MGS and KH. I made the point about Japan, but it applies in the US. I agree that it has no relation to Halo. In some regards, the buying frenzy is even crazier in Japan. As I said previously, Square expects the FF PS3 game to move 3 million units in Japan alone. That would dwarf our 1.5M guess on 360's moved by Halo. That also doesn't include sales that will occur in America and Europe. You could easily see 4 million units moved worldwide when FF is released (mostly in Japan, but it all counts). MS doesn't have that 3rd region to get a sales boost. |
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04-03-2007, 02:07 PM | #414 |
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Keep in mind that Halo 2 was the second Halo game available for the Xbox. The original Halo was a huge system seller and even with all of those systems already sold, Halo 2 was a second wave system seller. With Halo 3 being the first of the franchise for the 360, I would expect it to cause a huge boost in 360 sales.
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04-03-2007, 02:19 PM | #415 | |
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Yes, but the 360 is over 18 months into its life cycle. Halo was an early title. Halo 2 was a mid to late life cycle title, hence the reason it's probably a better comparison. It was more hyped than the original ever was. |
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04-03-2007, 02:30 PM | #416 | |
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The excitement seems over for the Ps3 in Europe:
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The main problem i see is the lack of games. There are jokes in Spanish console forums about why did Sony release the Ps3 with the sixaxis when the blueray controler was all that you need to watch movies because there are no games to play. Look at the future game releases in Europe (day:month format) and cry: 26.04. Madden NFL 2007 24.05. NBA Street Homecourt 14.06. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 28.06. Marvel: Ultimate Alliance xx.06. Folks Soul xx.07. Wangan Midnight xx.07. Hot Shots Golf 7
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04-03-2007, 04:15 PM | #417 |
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Icy beat me to it.
They didn't sell out of launch allocation, that's an indication that demand has been met.
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04-04-2007, 06:47 AM | #418 | |
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I'm not sure why you're surprised by this. There's never been a major launch in Europe where they actually had enough supply to meet demand. Second week numbers usually don't drop as much because there are still consumers in the following weeks that were unable to get consoles in the launch week. This is yet another situation where consumer and media reactions are actually encouraging restricted supply in future releases to create an artificial demand that simply isn't there. The numbers from the first two weeks of the PS3 release dwarf any other console other than PSP. Another damned if you do, damned if you don't situation that people are throwing on top of Sony. |
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04-04-2007, 08:25 AM | #419 |
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Here is the problem with the conspiracy theory and your "damned if they do, damned if they don't" proposal:
It is IMPOSSIBLE to meet launch demand unless you are making consoles for a LONG time before launch. In which case you go a long time without making any money. The console makers have the assembly lines running full steam months ahead of the launch, and typically still can't meet demand. Microsoft ran into some well-publicized issues with a third fab and some of the suppliers that cut into their supply a bit, but this meant it was longer before the post-launch consoles hit shelves rather than there being a shortage on the day of launch. The problem is not a restricted supply (there is only a finite number you can make, and you don't want to have a whole bunch of extra fabs that only produce for a couple of months to meet launch demand that you then have to close for post-launch), it's a huge demand at launch time (typically). Sony's problem is not enough people were excited enough to pick it up at launch (unlike the Wii or 360), or even in the short window afterward when there were consoles just sitting around. Heck, even in America where there was a huge launch demand and consoles all over eBay, we had stories all over this forum of people RETURNING their PS3s after making the impulse by on launch day. They weren't trying eBay or other methods to make a profit, they were just returning them to the stores as not worth the value. Sony's fundamental problem is lack of demand, pure and simple. The European numbers show that the hardcore Playstation people got theirs on launch day, and no one else is interested at the current price point / title selection.
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04-04-2007, 08:38 AM | #420 | |
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Yet they sold more on launch day that any other console......ever. And they still sold 30,000 units in the second week, which is nothing to scoff at either. It's just dwarfed by the launch numbers. The '82% drop!' title is nothing more than a nice play on percentages, but they now have an installed base of over 200,000 units in the UK alone in 10 days and will likely passed 1M units by the end of April (www.vgcharts.org hasn't updated for this week, so we don't have firm numbers yet to project). That's big no matter how you want to filet that fish. Title selection is somewhat of a problem, though there will be plenty more titles by the holiday season and, unless you're one of those people who buys a ton of games, there's enough quality titles to keep the users busy. |
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04-04-2007, 09:29 AM | #421 | |
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I'm starting to wonder why do you seem to defend Sony this way, you really look their PR. I think this forum is one of the less biased sites and that is why most of us love to read reviews here, we all are huge games fans but not fanboys of any brand, company, etc. I think that most of us are being or trying to be really objective, posting stats etc and commenting them, both criticizing and praising both consoles, but you are answering to each post one by one, like if you had some things to explain and to convince each one of us instead of commenting the overall situation. Anyway nothing against you, just that you seem a bit defensive like if we wanted the Ps3 to fail or something and that if your life depends from it. Ok, back to trying to be objective again. I have owned the 360 and loved it, but hated the region code thing and ended selling it, i'm going to end probably buying a PS3 as are region free and because probably they will end winning the console war in Spain, and i think it's better to be a sheep in this case as at least for me, if the PS3 wins the war here, more games will be available for me etc. But the true is that right now, at least in Europe, there are no games for the PS3, and the ones available are some that have been already available for the 360 since months ago, and in most of the cases are worse quallity ports. Look at one future release: 26.04. Madden NFL 2007 Come on, we are closer to the 2008 season than to the past 2007 season, you can't expect Madden 2007 to drive your future sales here, this game should have been available since release day as anyway it's an old game. There are more examples of this, like NBA2k7, Marvel Ultimate Alliance etc. The high price (remember, $800 for us) and the lack of games are the main reason of the PS3 not being the monster it could have been with better planning from Sony. This is how Sony could have won already the war in Europe (or at least in Spain that i know better): - Having the same price than in USA, if the PS3 there is $600, it should cost us around 500€ after the conversion, not $800. Why should we pay more for the same item when your costs are the same? If the Euro is stronger, better or worse for us, but it's the bank who should make the conversion, not Sony. That is why i also criticized SI Games past year when they released OOTP2006 more expensive for Europeans. - Not selling us a worse console at higher price. They removed the PS2 hardware chip from the European console, removing most of the compatibility with PS2 games as the software emulation is really bad (choppy gameplay, lots of games freezing the console etc). - Not including the damn BR. As HD is not a reality in Europe yet, not any channel in TV is broadcasted in HD, the price of the HD ready TV's is huge etc. When i discussed this with some friends, they all asked? blue what?? and i have seen the same asked in some forums. Remember in Europe we are around 1 or 2 years behind USA/Japan so why do we need a BR player?? Because it will be the future in 3 or 4 years? well then release it as an extra in 3 or 4 years. - Making deals with the game developers to have their European version of games ready for the launch day, as most of people buys a console to play games, with no games, no consoles sold. (This is really damaging the PS3 after the release day excitement). And i'm not saying all that because i have anything against Sony, but because i frequent a lot of Spanish gaming forums and those are the general feelings, i would copy & paste from there but it's in Spanish language. Sony thought they had the war won and relaxed too much and now they are paying for it. Of course it doesn't mean they won't be the top sellers here in some years, as for sure they will be and here is why: - No adds at all in Spanish TV about the 360 since GOW was released some months ago vs tons of PS3 adds in TV right now. - No brand name for Xbox in Spain while Playstation is the console here. When a person talks about playing a console, they talk about playing "la play" (the Play) like if there wasn't any other console in the market, in fact most of people doesn't know what a 360 or Wii is unless they are serious gamers. - You enter a big supermarket, close to the entrance, you see a huge Sony stand with a Ps3 and a 32" Full HD Sony Bravia TV and like 10 kids playing Motorstorm. Somewhere hidden in the electronics area, you see a 360 plugged in a cheap TFT monitor and turned off. That is for sure Microsoft fault, with the same PR that Sony does in Spain, Microsoft could have take the chance to become huge here and they didn't so once the games start to be released and after a possible price drop for the next Christmas campaign, PS3 will win the war here for sure.
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04-04-2007, 11:07 AM | #422 | |
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I've said numerous times in this thread that if you solely want a gaming machine in the U.S., the 360 is the choice at this point (Europe obviously has region issues with the 360). I also have stated that the Wii is a great machine for those that love the Nintendo first-party titles (which that is a lot of people). I've also been extremely critical of the Sony executive team, to the point where I called them 'jackasses'. I've also been very critical of some of their early releases. I may be a happy PS3 owner, but I'm not oblivious to what the other systems having going for them or to the problems that Sony has in some situations. I would note that importing a PS3 for a European gamer is a viable option now. Sony cut down on the importing while the PS3 was not available in Europe, but it's now perfectly legal to purchase units from importers like PlayAsia or North American retailers. You can get the console much cheaper as long as you find a reasonable shipping cost. It's an option that you should at least take a look at if you do want a PS3 in Europe and find the cost to be too high. Last edited by Mizzou B-ball fan : 04-04-2007 at 11:08 AM. |
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04-04-2007, 11:13 AM | #423 |
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Here you go, Icy. British retailer (WH Smith) has a sale on PS3's through April 10th......
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/26423/WH-S...shes-PS3-price |
04-04-2007, 11:31 AM | #424 | |
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Yes, they are "slashing" the price and offering a "significant price cut" of 25 pounds. Not mocking Mizzou here, just having fun with the ad. |
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04-04-2007, 12:32 PM | #425 |
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Today, we have a Microsoft executive doing his best impression of Phil Harrison. Do these executives seriously think before they speak????? Evidently he hasn't bought a 120GB HDD recently.........
http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/04/mi...box-hdd-price/ Aaron Greenberg, Microsoft's group product manager, told Game Theory yesterday that the 120GB external drive for the Xbox 360 is not overpriced at $179. Said Greenberg, "If you compare what we are offering with a real plug-and-play drive the closest thing would be to take a 120-gig self-powered external PC drive, and in that case we are seeing those retail at anywhere from $160 to $200 for comparable laptop-sized external hard drives." Uhhhhh, you can get one for $80-90 right now, Aaron. This comment is about as dumb as the one where the Sony executive offered $1200 if you could find a PS3 in stock in North America. |
04-04-2007, 02:12 PM | #426 | |
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Link please (to a comparable laptop-sized self-powered 120 GB external hard drive). I haven't found a 150GB+ external HD for backup purposes that I was willing to buy for less than $150, although they have been getting closer to $100. If you can link to one, I might buy one... Edit: Never mind, found one: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16822136059 $95 for 120GB 2.5" no-power-supply-needed drive. You are correct, Microsoft needs to go shopping. Edit Again: Well, he did say retail.
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04-04-2007, 02:20 PM | #427 | ||
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Wow. Where are you getting that "1M units by the end of April"? The launch day in the UK went well for them - one of the few really bright spots they've had with the PS3 launches so far - but that's one day, and the subsequent week didn't even sell out the remaining stock. Just 30k units moved. As you say, nothing to scoff at, but in order to go from 200k to 1M by the end of April, that assumes that you're going to see roughly a 7x increase in sales over last week each of the next 3-4 weeks. I don't see it. Quote:
I see some in the $120 range, but I haven't seen any as low as $80-90. That said, yeah, it's overpriced, and yeah, it would've been better for Microsoft not to say anything at all than something easily dismissed. Can't argue with that. |
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04-04-2007, 02:21 PM | #428 |
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I hope this mild disagreement continues until the end of time!
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04-04-2007, 02:36 PM | #429 |
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04-04-2007, 03:04 PM | #430 | |
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The 200K number is UK only. The overall sales in Europe are around 700K at this point. With a rough sales number over the next 5 weeks around 50K (which is what they sold this week), I suppose it would only be 950K instead of 1M, so if you want to quibble over 50K, that's fine. As far as the HDD prices, there are several sites linked in the article with sub $100 prices, as low as $80 in some cases. They're ridiculously cheap and will likely be more in the $60-70 price range by the end of summer. |
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04-04-2007, 03:12 PM | #431 |
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This thread needs to be identified as a political thread.
Both sides keep pointing out why their side is better than the other side isn't. |
04-04-2007, 03:19 PM | #432 |
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04-04-2007, 03:20 PM | #433 | |
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Yeah, retail is not buying the product at newegg. Retail is finding it at bestbuy, circuitcity, etc. Where the tech unsavvy shop. |
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04-04-2007, 03:29 PM | #434 | |
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As somebody who doesn't give a rat's ass about consoles, I continue to be amazed by the blind loyalty I see in this thread. It's amazing, really. Some of these posts truly defy logic. |
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04-04-2007, 03:37 PM | #435 |
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04-04-2007, 03:50 PM | #436 | |
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That's the discrepancy, then. I read that assertion as saying that there would be a 1M installed base in the UK by the end of April, and I think you'll agree there is no chance in hell of THAT happening. Europe? Okay, I can see that. |
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04-04-2007, 03:56 PM | #437 |
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04-04-2007, 05:15 PM | #438 | |
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That's a very nice out for the exec, but it's idiotic to imply that technology isn't available for anything less than retail. Any person that has any basic knowledge regarding technology knows it can be had for far less. You're really stretching here. If you actually believe that he planned in advance to say the word 'retail' in his statement to hopefully sneak that comment by, I'll believe you. That would make him 'Captain Half-Truth' because he knowingly made a comment that he knew wasn't completely true. Either way, it was a very poor choice of words. |
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04-04-2007, 05:19 PM | #439 |
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wow
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04-04-2007, 05:28 PM | #440 | |
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I think he said 'retail' because most people buy retail. Anybody know of a good site to test this assertion? |
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04-04-2007, 08:43 PM | #441 | |
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I'm really stretching. That's funny. |
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04-04-2007, 08:56 PM | #442 |
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I don't get it. The external 120GB drive for the XBox 360 is retailing at $179, and it's wrong for him to compare it to the retail price of comparable external hard drives for laptops?
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04-04-2007, 08:59 PM | #443 | |
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04-04-2007, 09:18 PM | #444 |
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I don't think this word retail means what you think it means.
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04-04-2007, 11:46 PM | #445 |
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You guys need to realise that there is absolutely no point in arguing this with Mizzou.
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04-05-2007, 12:36 AM | #446 |
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[controversial]I AM OF THE OPINION THAT THE LAUNCH AND SUBSEQUENT SALES OF THE PS3 HAVE PERHAPS NOT BEEN AS GOOD AS SONY MIGHT HAVE EXPECTED.[/controversial]
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04-05-2007, 06:31 AM | #447 | |
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Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
So you seriously think he intentionally said 'retail' because he knew that they sold for far less elsewhere and he wanted to make sure that the discussion only involved the retail price? OK, we'll assume that's correct for sake of argument. Assuming that he's only talking retail, are we to assume that the 120GB HDD for the 360 will be available for $80-90 at places like Newegg? Because it's the same thing, right? This executive made an absolutely idiotic blunder. I will say that there he should quickly employ a couple of FOF posters for damage control purposes. My guess is that you all could do a better job at his job than he can. |
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04-05-2007, 06:42 AM | #448 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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I think the funniest thing in the history of ever would be to see Mizzou B-Ball's reaction to an announcement that EA bought the gaming arm of Sony.
In regards to pricing, if you can show me any statement by any exec in the consumer space that references anything other than MSRP when describing their pricing or comparing to other products pricing, I'm all ears.
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
04-05-2007, 06:55 AM | #449 |
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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04-05-2007, 08:26 AM | #450 |
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