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Old 12-04-2013, 10:33 AM   #401
Ronnie Dobbs3
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Originally Posted by BishopMVP View Post
but I feel comfortable projecting him at 20+

Not sure how you can comfortably project that when he has only exceeded 9 HRs once in his career. Possible? Sure. Comfortably projected? Ehhhhhhhhh.
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Old 12-04-2013, 10:43 AM   #402
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They don't? Speed guys generally hold on to their value much better than other types of players. The oft injured charge - well, he was fallen on for two of those long injuries.

As a guy who has owned Ellsbury the past two seasons and three of the last four, this is misleading. He's fragile as fuck. I had to make play time decisions on him daily. He's the MLB version of the NFL player who is Questionable on the injury report every week, only he has done it for two years now.

The Yankees are morons to give this guy that money for that long.
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Old 12-04-2013, 10:52 AM   #403
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I'm just curious...why?

I like Ellsbury's versatility - he's a better fielder, base stealer and a leadoff hitter - all are very valuable.

But there are other factors, durability being a big one. Ellsbury has played in 384 games the last 4 years, Cano has played in 720 - in other words, over the last 4 years the team with Cano has gotten a great player twice as often as the team with Ellsbury. That's huge. Then you have to factor in the style of their games. Ellsbury's 2011 year with 32 homers looks like a outlier - he's never hit more than 9 in any other year. That's a Brady Anderson-sized statistical anomaly. So it is fair to summarize him as a speed guy who is often injured. Guys like that don't tend to do well in their 30s. Cano is a .300 / 30hr hitter and the track record for those guys tends to be significantly better as they go deep into their careers.

It will be interesting to see how much money Cano ends up with. The Yankees are giving Ellsbury $21m a year. I think Cano will end up around 8 years for $200m ($25m a year). At those rates, I think Cano is the better long-term buy.

Of course, I don't think any player is worth that much money unless the player is Pedro Martinez, Barry Bonds (with or without roids) or someone like that.

Exactly. That's why I'd rather the Yankees end up with Ellsbury rather than Cano.

Maybe my initial post wasn't clear that that's what I was talking about?

Aah - someone already covered that.
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Old 12-04-2013, 10:56 AM   #404
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I don't know if he'll hit 32 HR's, but I feel comfortable projecting him at 20+. He's coming off a shoulder injury and showed greatly improved power in the 2nd half, plus he fits perfectly with that short RF porch in Yankee Stadium.


We talking Ellsbury here, or Choo? You randomly said Choo in your post.

If we're talking Ells...I'm and curious. Projecting him at 20+ how soon, and for how many years? That's something I might be tempted to wager a bottle of scotch on.
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Old 12-04-2013, 11:02 AM   #405
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Here's Ellsbury's Fenway hits over Yankee stadium. He looks like he'd gain a handful.
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Old 12-04-2013, 11:14 AM   #406
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Sounds like the Beltran to KC rumors are heating up again. He came to town on Monday and is still here this morning. Tim Kurkjian reported on ESPN Radio that multiple GM's have told him that they believe Beltran is KC's to lose.

At 3/$48M plus a draft pick for a 37yo Carlos Beltran- oof. That's just too much.

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Old 12-04-2013, 11:22 AM   #407
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Exactly. That's why I'd rather the Yankees end up with Ellsbury rather than Cano.

Maybe my initial post wasn't clear that that's what I was talking about?

Aah - someone already covered that.

Yeah, we just ended up violently agreeing.

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Old 12-04-2013, 11:38 AM   #408
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At 3/$48M plus a draft pick for a 37yo Carlos Beltran- oof. That's just too much.

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I think there's been some confusion on the offer. Kurkjian even mentioned on his interview this morning that another team was offering that much, not necessarily the Royals. However, he said that even a lower offer doesn't necessarily eliminate the Royals. He mentioned that he would be shocked to see Beltran go to the Mariners. He said Carlos likes to take day trips down to Puerto Rico to go to his baseball academy. He said for that reason, anywhere west of KC is likely out because a day trip from that distance wouldn't work.
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Old 12-04-2013, 11:45 AM   #409
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Not sure how you can comfortably project that when he has only exceeded 9 HRs once in his career. Possible? Sure. Comfortably projected? Ehhhhhhhhh.
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Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo View Post
We talking Ellsbury here, or Choo? You randomly said Choo in your post.

If we're talking Ells...I'm and curious. Projecting him at 20+ how soon, and for how many years? That's something I might be tempted to wager a bottle of scotch on.
Ells. I just had Choo on my mind because I saw people tying him to the Ellsbury contract.

He came off a power-sapping injury and hit 1 HR in his first 342 AB's, and 8 of his 9 HR's last year in his last 235 AB's from July 4th on. Toss in the extra 5-6 from the short porch (and that's before considering whether he'll swing for that fence a little more) and you've got over 20 even assuming no more returning power.

Assuming healthyish seasons (let's use 130 games as a cut-off there) I like him going for 20+ in at least 2 of the next 3 years.
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Old 12-04-2013, 12:02 PM   #410
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Well, you may be right, but you are taking a SSS and treating it as gospel going forward, ignoring a much larger sample that says the opposite.
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Old 12-04-2013, 12:35 PM   #411
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Here's Ellsbury's Fenway hits over Yankee stadium. He looks like he'd gain a handful.

In a vacuum maybe - that obviously doesn't account for pitchers realizing that and pitching him differently.
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Old 12-04-2013, 12:38 PM   #412
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Well, you may be right, but you are taking a SSS and treating it as gospel going forward, ignoring a much larger sample that says the opposite.
This article does a pretty good job breaking down the two schools of thought. One that 2011 was a complete fluke Brady Anderson year and he'll never hit more than 10, and the other that (while 2011 was still an outlier) he was showing increased power as he hit his prime before suffering a shoulder injury, and only recently regained full strength in it. Keep in mind, I had no problem with the Red Sox moving on given the circumstances ($/years/JBJ/questionable durability), and I'm completely rooting for your side in this argument to be proven right, but I do see him putting up some monster seasons the next few years.
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Old 12-04-2013, 02:38 PM   #413
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Again, it's possible, but even that article is of the "if you look at it from the side with the perfect amount of light" kind of a thing. I don't think it's likely he becomes a 20+ HR guy for the next few seasons. I'm not rooting for anything, I just don't see how confidently predicting something based on next to nothing is sensible. Is it possible that he's really a decent to good power hitter and we just keep seeing injuries stopping him from being that? Sure. I wouldn't bet on it.

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Old 12-04-2013, 03:37 PM   #414
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I'm not rooting for anything, I just don't see how confidently predicting something based on next to nothing is sensible.
I mean, he did hit 32 home runs in a season - I'd argue that's more than nothing. I'm not projecting Carl Crawford to suddenly develop power he's never shown, or even a guy like Cecchini to (who most scouts think will). There are some weird power surges - Wade Boggs hit 24 one year (although he claims he swung for the fences that year to prove he could ), and Brady Anderson hit 50, but even Brady hit 18 or more the next 4 years. Barring injuries, how many guys have ever hit 32 in a season and then never hit even 1/3 of that again?

(And I think we both agree Yankee Stadium isn't 1995 Coors, but it will add a few, so I'm really projecting him to jump from 9 to 15.)

As for the rooting angle, just imagine how unhinged the local media will be in June if JBJ is hitting .220 while Jacoby is at .300 with 10+ HR and the Yankees are in first place. For the sake of my own sanity, I'm hoping that's not the case.
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Old 12-04-2013, 03:43 PM   #415
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This article does a pretty good job breaking down the two schools of thought. One that 2011 was a complete fluke Brady Anderson year and he'll never hit more than 10, and the other that (while 2011 was still an outlier) he was showing increased power as he hit his prime before suffering a shoulder injury, and only recently regained full strength in it. Keep in mind, I had no problem with the Red Sox moving on given the circumstances ($/years/JBJ/questionable durability), and I'm completely rooting for your side in this argument to be proven right, but I do see him putting up some monster seasons the next few years.

It is probably one of them things with Ellsbury where he is a lot like Joe Mauer. They can probably hit more home runs in favor of lower average but they havent decided to make that adjustment. I think I remember hearing that Wade Boggs hit more home runs than anyone during batting practice but once the game started his natural instincts took over where getting on base was the top priority.

Ellsbury probably just got on the groove that one summer and felt confident enough to consistently swing for the fences. Now he is back to playing the way his natural talent makes him feel comfortable.

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Old 12-04-2013, 04:01 PM   #416
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Ells also isnt a natural pull happy hitter so unless he is looking for a pitch he has to go out of his natural swing to pull the ball. That is also the issue in his power. He doesnt have enough power to hit them out to center and left on a regular basis.

Mauer is the exact same way. He really has to gear up and look for a pitch to pull it.
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:57 PM   #417
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Barring injuries, how many guys have ever hit 32 in a season and then never hit even 1/3 of that again?

Larry Sheets came really close (31 in 1987).
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Old 12-04-2013, 10:25 PM   #418
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Larry Sheets came really close (31 in 1987).
What a weird career there - Larry Sheets Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com . 17 and 18 HR's in half a season's worth of AB's as a lefty platoon guy his 1st two years, that great 1987 where he even crushed lefty pitching, and then completely fell off the map. Joe Charbonneau's another one of those guys - 24 HR's and RoY, less than 200 AB's after that.
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Old 12-04-2013, 10:37 PM   #419
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Rick Wilkins hit 30 with a .303/.376/.561 line and then never hit more than 8 homeruns in a season after that.
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Old 12-05-2013, 07:33 AM   #420
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Joe Charbonneau's another one of those guys - 24 HR's and RoY, less than 200 AB's after that.

Charbonneau injured his back during a slide and never really recovered, so he has that injury excuse.
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Old 12-05-2013, 09:44 AM   #421
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This article does a pretty good job breaking down the two schools of thought. One that 2011 was a complete fluke Brady Anderson year and he'll never hit more than 10, and the other that (while 2011 was still an outlier) he was showing increased power as he hit his prime before suffering a shoulder injury, and only recently regained full strength in it. Keep in mind, I had no problem with the Red Sox moving on given the circumstances ($/years/JBJ/questionable durability), and I'm completely rooting for your side in this argument to be proven right, but I do see him putting up some monster seasons the next few years.

Brady Anderson fluked his way into 50, but he wasn't completely devoid of power going forward, either. From '97-'00, he was right around 18-25 every year.
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Old 12-05-2013, 10:11 AM   #422
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Rick Wilkins hit 30 with a .303/.376/.561 line and then never hit more than 8 homeruns in a season after that.
I remember watching him. He was a part-time catcher who feasted on rightys at Wrigley. He only had over 400 ABs twice in his career - once he hit 30 and the other 14. He did have a lot of 150-200 AB seasons with 7-8 HRs though. He just never played good enough D to land a fulltime gig. If you pro-rate most of his seasons to 500+ ABs, he would probably have hit 17-25 HR. So, one full season at 30 isn't that crazy.
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Old 12-05-2013, 10:12 AM   #423
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Put away the Beltran to Royals stories:

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The Royals acquire OF Norichika Aoki from Brewers for LHP Will Smith.
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Old 12-05-2013, 11:56 AM   #424
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I hope this ends the pursuit of Beltran for stupid money for a 37yo. I don't know how to react to this- the Royals made a potentially non-sucky trade. Will Smith showed upside as a starter last year in AAA but never really given a chance in KC. But his track record before last year wasn't great and his K numbers spiked last year. So it's not a bad gamble for Milwaukee. But Aoki seems pretty good now and Smith was being underutilized as a reliever so it seems like an actual good deal for Dayton Moore. I'm confused.

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Old 12-05-2013, 11:58 AM   #425
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These trades are making me sad that the Giants aren't in on them. I would have loved to see Aoki in the San Francisco outfield.
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Old 12-05-2013, 12:17 PM   #426
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I read speculation earlier that the trade doesn't necessarily close the door on the Royals' interest in Beltran. Will look for a link.

edit: Rosenthal on Twitter...

Royals acquisition of Aoki does not change anything in their pursuit of Beltran. They still want him.

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Old 12-05-2013, 12:17 PM   #427
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Aoki is a nice player and he's not making any money. He'd be a lot better if he could play CF but he's pretty stretched there. He does play a fine RF, has a good arm. He dipped quite a bit in slugging percentage last year and when playing a power position like RF you'll have to make that power up somewhere else.

My tendency is to think this is a somewhat fair exchange if Smith can make it as a starter and I really don't have much of a feel whether that's going to happen based on the numbers. I do think he'll make a fine reliever but I would have hoped for a better return on Aoki than a reliever.

At least it wasn't Aoki for Ike Davis.
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Old 12-05-2013, 12:19 PM   #428
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I read speculation earlier that the trade doesn't necessarily close the door on the Royals' interest in Beltran. Will look for a link.

Rosenthal has tweeted it for what that's worth:

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal2h
#Royals’ acquisition of Aoki does not change anything in their pursuit of Beltran. They still want him.

I'm just going to pretend it won't happen because of how bad an idea it is at the money they would have to pay him

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Old 12-05-2013, 12:41 PM   #429
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Will Smith... another former Angels farmhand who could have helped the current pitching staff. Skaggs... Corbin... even Wacha... ugh.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:02 PM   #430
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Tanaka might not be posted this offseason.

Masahiro Tanaka may not be made available to MLB teams by Rakuten Golden Eagles - ESPN
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Old 12-05-2013, 03:42 PM   #431
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1 year 10M with a 9 or 10M players option for Wilson? hes not even a closer..... LA has so much money they are just stupid
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Old 12-05-2013, 03:57 PM   #432
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1 year 10M with a 9 or 10M players option for Wilson? hes not even a closer..... LA has so much money they are just stupid

to be fair, he really settled the back end last year, and don't think that he won't be right there if Jansen struggles, which he has. The team had some major back end issues early in the year so I can't really fault them for being aggressive.
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Old 12-05-2013, 04:17 PM   #433
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Someone needs to sign Beltran. Cards really want that compensation pick.
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:21 PM   #434
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You have to wonder if some of this isn't just posturing to get an exemption for Tanaka before the new limit on posting fees comes into effect. I don't know how much has been going on behind the scenes, but it does seem kind of ludicrous to be changing the rules during the offseason when teams have already set up their shopping plans.
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:26 PM   #435
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If it's posturing, it'll fail. There are maybe two teams who would be interested enough in Tanaka to be willing to carve out an exemption like that. Not nearly enough teams to vote *for* that exemption to get him over here.
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:38 PM   #436
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If it's posturing, it'll fail. There are maybe two teams who would be interested enough in Tanaka to be willing to carve out an exemption like that. Not nearly enough teams to vote *for* that exemption to get him over here.
If you call it an "exemption" it does sound unlikely. But since these rules aren't even finalized I could see MLB "delaying their implementation" and effectively grandfathering in Tanaka. Idk what other players timelines are, but Daisuke appears to have been posted on November 14th (or, actually, the Red Sox "won" the bidding for him that day, so he had to have been posted earlier) with the process finalized and contract signed on December 13th. Since the winter meetings are starting soon and there's still the 30-day negotiating period, there needs to be some resolution soon one way or the other.

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Old 12-06-2013, 07:31 AM   #437
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1 year 10M with a 9 or 10M players option for Wilson? hes not even a closer..... LA has so much money they are just stupid
Meanwhile, Red Sox sign Mujica for 2 years, $9.5m. Love the signing and fits their bullpen philosophy perfectly - Mujica, Koji, Tazawa, and Badenhop ranked #1, #3, #7, and #12 in lowest walk rates of 135 qualified MLB RP in 2013.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:45 AM   #438
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http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...icle-1.1539636

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Robinson Cano's chances of landing in Seattle have apparently ended on a sour note.

According to two sources briefed on the situation, negotiations between the free agent second baseman's lone stalking horse — the Mariners — and Cano's camp — led by rapper-turned super-agent Jay Z and CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen — collapsed after Jay Z apparently overplayed his hand in a negotiating session with the Mariners Thursday.

Cano and his camp arrived in Seattle with what sources described as basically an eight-year deal for $200 million in hand and the assurances that Seattle would go to nine years and $225 million. But when Jay Z then upped the ante to 10 years for $252 million, Mariners president Howard Lincoln apparently "exploded," according to one of the sources, and ended the meeting.

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Old 12-06-2013, 08:14 AM   #439
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Maybe this will end Jay Z's ridiculous attempts to be a sports agent?
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Old 12-06-2013, 08:19 AM   #440
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Maybe this will end Jay Z's ridiculous attempts to be a sports agent?

He'll probably keep trying, but maybe it gives a little pause to the clients looking at him.
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Old 12-06-2013, 08:28 AM   #441
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He'll probably keep trying, but maybe it gives a little pause to the clients looking at him.

Yeah, that's basically what I meant.
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:08 AM   #442
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Looks like Cano 10 year 240 in seattle is a done deal...
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:12 AM   #443
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10 years for a 31 year old? Holy crap...
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:16 AM   #444
cartman
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Jay Z must have channeled Suge Knight.
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:19 AM   #445
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Jay Z must have channeled Suge Knight.

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Old 12-06-2013, 10:36 AM   #446
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I don't believe the details most of these reports, but I'd like to believe the M's owner "exploded" at 10 years/$252 million, but then when Jay Z "backed down" to 10 years/$240 million, he rushed to grab his checkbook.

Last edited by molson : 12-06-2013 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 12-06-2013, 10:42 AM   #447
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Mets and Granderson agreed to a 4 year deal. Not sure of the $, I remember seeing $17 million yesterday and couldn't believe that.

edit: Rosenthal says $15MM per. Yuck.

Last edited by Logan : 12-06-2013 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 12-06-2013, 11:01 AM   #448
ISiddiqui
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Mets and Granderson agreed to a 4 year deal. Not sure of the $, I remember seeing $17 million yesterday and couldn't believe that.

edit: Rosenthal says $15MM per. Yuck.

Hmmmm... I mean the Mets can afford it, but Granderson's 2012 and 2013 are very worrisome.
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Old 12-06-2013, 11:32 AM   #449
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Have any giant contracts in baseball ever really worked out?
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Old 12-06-2013, 11:33 AM   #450
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Compared to recent mega-contracts Jacoby Ellsbury's $153 million deal makes sense - MLB - ESPN

yes
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