Iran War 2026

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Whoever is trying to save JD Vance's 2028 chances is really starting to leak stuff. Reports today that Vance doesn't believe the information about the Iran war that the Pentagon (Hegseth) is feeding them.

Peter Thiel

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Peter Thiel

No doubt

It sounds like there's some pressure to try to get Hegseth removed too.

[RainMaker]

I think Hegseth gets tossed under the bus at some point for the failures in Iran. But he also doesn't really have that much power. Trump calls the shots on the big stuff and Feinberg is the guy doing the actual leg work at DoD. Hegseth has always just been a figurehead for Fox News boomers to blow their load over.

[JPhillips]

Oil over 100?

Time for Trump to tweet that the Iranians are begging him for peace.

Every damned time.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Don't worry, they moved everyone off base to hotels to use the civilians as human shields.

And hey, I wasn't the one who started the war and I'm not in charge of the military with a trillion dollar budget that let a near 70 year old plane pierce through our air defense like hot butter. Take it up with them.

Try to justify it any way you want. You still come off as a piece of shit.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Try to justify it any way you want. You still come off as a piece of shit.

I ain't the one blowing up schools for an 80 year old pedophile.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I ain't the one blowing up schools for an 80 year old pedophile.

Then the "LMAO" was directed at "the civilians as human shields"? Got it.

Still, just a piece of shit.

[JPhillips]

Watching the Gas Buddy guy go nuts as today is the day when gas prices have exploded. 50-70 cent increases in the Midwest, with more to come, according to him.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Watching the Gas Buddy guy go nuts as today is the day when gas prices have exploded. 50-70 cent increases in the Midwest, with more to come, according to him.

I've read analysts that have said gas prices may never go down to where they were before this. Similar to covid, reliability with shipping is actually favored over efficiency and the Straight of Hormuz will never be considered reliable again.

The administration is also running out of levers to pull for gas prices and we're starting to feel the 14 million or so barrels a day removed from the market.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Then the "LMAO" was directed at "the civilians as human shields"? Got it.

Still, just a piece of shit.

No, it was directed at the fact we spend a trillion dollars a year for a military that can't even stop a 60 year old plane from bombing our base. As the country withers away so that we can financially support defense contractors and a foreign country, all you can do is laugh at the sheer incompetence of it all.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I've read analysts that have said gas prices may never go down to where they were before this. Similar to covid, reliability with shipping is actually favored over efficiency and the Straight of Hormuz will never be considered reliable again.

The administration is also running out of levers to pull for gas prices and we're starting to feel the 14 million or so barrels a day removed from the market.

They've already been trying to keep the prices down by having the Treasury short it. Worked for a little while but you can't do that forever.

And yeah, it could be a long time before prices come down. Those refineries don't just start up overnight and billions in infrastructure have been destroyed. I saw some analyst state that even if the war ended today, it would be at minimum of 3 years before even sniffing the prices we had. Not to mention the dollar continuing to lose value.

One thing that isn't talked enough about is that fertilizer prices are skyrocketing. That's going to make food even more expensive.

[albionmoonlight]

Not that the group of humans that pretends to be a Congress will care, but whatever legal justification existed for the war expired yesterday.

[Atocep]

The inventory math is brutal. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that in Iran alone, the United States burned through 45% of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile, half of its THAAD interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot PAC-3 inventory, roughly 30% of its Tomahawks, and more than 20% of its long-range JASSMs.

That is just one war. Add Ukraine, where, since 2022, the United States has shipped roughly one-third of its Javelin inventory, one-quarter of its Stinger stockpile, more than two million 155mm artillery rounds, and thousands of GMLRS rockets. The combined drain is what the Pentagon’s own internal assessments now describe as a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition.

We can't build more of most of these without China lifting its restrictions on rare earth metals. Trump continues to be a gift for China.

[JPhillips]

I read that the admin is saying the war is over for purposes of the War Powers Act. That's absurd, just for the blockade if nothing else, but the GOP Congress won't care, so everything's fine, I guess.

[flere-imsaho]

If you had come up with a plan for the United States to dismantle/destroy itself, would it have worked as well as the first two years of the second Trump Administration?

Putin must be continually gobsmacked at how this worked out beyond his wildest dreams and Xi must be just delighted that Russia's ploy with Trump has worked out so much to his own benefit.

[RainMaker]

So what happened to that pilot we totally saved inside Iran?

[Lathum]

Iranian media reporting the hit a US Naval ship with two missels. Weird since I thought we were in a ceasefire which is why Trump doesn't need congressional approval.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Iranian media reporting the hit a US Naval ship with two missels. Weird since I thought we were in a ceasefire which is why Trump doesn't need congressional approval.

The US is denying that a ship was hit of course.

[Lathum]

The flow of information from this war is consistent with the first Trump administrations information regarding COVID. Just can’t believe anything they say and constant lies and contradicting.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Iranian media reporting the hit a US Naval ship with two missels. Weird since I thought we were in a ceasefire which is why Trump doesn't need congressional approval.

It didn't happen. But I'm sure a laundry fire will require the ship to need massive repairs in a couple of days.

[RainMaker]

When you've lost the Saudis.....

���������� BREAKING: Saudi Arabia refused U.S. access to its bases and airspace for Project Freedom, forcing Trump's suspension of the operation...

Per NBC News citing two U.S. officials, Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom on social media Sunday afternoon… https://t.co/iB0x3Od7dd pic.twitter.com/rtIydg6FOu

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 6, 2026

[RainMaker]

Also looks like Kuwait said no too. Not a lot of options left.

[GrantDawg]

What exactly did he expect would happen when he started mocking MBS?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What exactly did he expect would happen when he started mocking MBS?

Having expectations requires a certain amount of thought and well...

[RainMaker]

I think it has more to do with them not wanting to have their infrastructure targeted by Iran like the UAE is dealing with.

Genuinely don't know where the U.S. goes from here. It'd be stupid for Iran to give up any kind of nuclear ambitions and you can't trust the U.S. at all. Removing sanctions seems like the bare minimum for them to accept but the longer the hold out, the worse it gets on the global economy. We're a month away from $7 gas.

[JPhillips]

The thought is that we're trying to push Iran to a point where they have run out of oil storage and need to cap wells. The problem is that a lot of experts think the Iranians can hold out for three or four months. Can you imagine how bad things will get politically for the GOP if this is still going on into the Fall?

[miami_fan]

It would never happen here, but wars like this would be enough to encourage a military coup in some nations.

[cuervo72]

“The possibilities for the Iranians to ‘MacGyver’ their way around Trump's blockade are endless because the country has thousands of miles of land border to work with,” Kelanic added.

Iran Is Using Alternative Routes To Bypass US Naval Blockade

I mean...it's not like Iran is in the middle of an ocean. Seems like they'd have options to get oil to Russia, China, other Asian parts. It may not be as convenient or quick as tankers, but you'd think they could get it out.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The thought is that we're trying to push Iran to a point where they have run out of oil storage and need to cap wells. The problem is that a lot of experts think the Iranians can hold out for three or four months. Can you imagine how bad things will get politically for the GOP if this is still going on into the Fall?

They've been heavily sanctioned by the West for like 50 years. They can hold out longer. Once gas hits $7 in the States, civil unrest begins.

[Lathum]

It's obvious Iran has had contingency plans in place for a long time for this scenario and are three steps ahead of our administration. It becomes more and more obvious every day that this administration has no strategy for getting us out of this, and anyone who could pull it off either quit or was jettisoned long ago in favor of yes men who are telling Trump how awesome it is going.

Maybe $7 gas on July 4th weekend will change things but I doubt it.

[JPhillips]

We bombed Iran today, but also made clear that this doesn't mean the war is restarting. Sure would be nice if the GOP gave a damn.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Maybe $7 gas on July 4th weekend will change things but I doubt it.

When you say that $7 gas will change things, I assume you are talking about policy changes within the administration. I know that $4.50/gal has caused the population to grumble but not necessarily demand or expect a change.

A few things are clear to me and probably have the case for a few decades now. It is probably time for the U.S. government and more importantly the U.S. population to factor them into any future military action.

1. I think the U.S. population has about 30 days of tolerance for military action max. Of course the preference is what happened in Venezuela but if it is going longer than that, it must be military action with only good news. I think the only exception would be the response to another 9/11.

2. You can cut that tolerance time by at least half if it means there is an actual financial cost to the population. Human cost in terms of military casualties will probably cut the tolerance by about 25% or so but the financial costs is much more important to the U.S population.

3. As long as the U.S. continues to view foreign policy in terms of only the Dept. of Defense, or only the State Department etc. and not a collective of the entire U.S. government, we are going to continue to have incomplete and/or failing results in our foreign policy.

I am sure there are more but those are the ones that are pretty obvious to me.

[PilotMan]

Cease fire still on, right? We still riding the excursion?


I love that those shots were totally unprovoked and totally unexpected. We had to defend ourselves!


The functional equivalent of calling not it when a parent asks what happened.

[GrantDawg]

SA and Kuwait are back to letting the US use their airspace. It does look like things are about to fire off again.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

When you say that $7 gas will change things, I assume you are talking about policy changes within the administration. I know that $4.50/gal has caused the population to grumble but not necessarily demand or expect a change.

.

More members of the GOP actually holding Trump and the administration accountable for the damage they are causing.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Cease fire still on, right? We still riding the excursion?


I love that those shots were totally unprovoked and totally unexpected. We had to defend ourselves!


The functional equivalent of calling not it when a parent asks what happened.

Yea it’s a great ceasefire. Iran has attacked us 10+ times and seized tankers, and launched attacks at tankers, and absolutely destroyed UAE while we are attacking their boats and apparently their land too. It’s the most ceasefire a ceasefire has ever ceasefired.

[flere-imsaho]

@miami_fan: nice post, agree with your 3 points.

I've given up trying to figure out what moves this administration besides Trump's addled ideas, and also he apparently cares about the stock market. The only way Trump cares about gas prices is if/when people loudly blame him for it, which presumably will happen.

I would imagine, however, that the real problem for the GOP is if gas is at the current level or higher come the summer when people start taking trips. Even if gas prices then go down by November, that's the sort of thing even low-information voters remember.

This all might just be cope from me, however.

[RainMaker]

Americans will grumble about expensive gas for a short period of time but I don't think they would be fine with it long term. Once it sits high for a long period of time, everything goes up. Everything that requires shipping or transport goes up in price. It brings massive inflation.

30% of the country would sacrifice their child for him but I think 70% of the country will be pretty upset.

[Lathum]

Food prices are also going to spike as we see shortages from a combination of farmers using less fields due to fertilizer prices and lack of labor to work those fields.

People will remember paying $6 for a pint of blueberries.

[RainMaker]

Construction prices go up, home prices go up, energy prices go up, everything goes up. The economy is sort of built around really cheap oil.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

People will remember paying $6 for a pint of blueberries.

Just had a friend complaining about $6 blueberries.

[flere-imsaho]

Well, probably because they're shipped from Peru or something.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

@miami_fan: nice post, agree with your 3 points.

I've given up trying to figure out what moves this administration besides Trump's addled ideas, and also he apparently cares about the stock market. The only way Trump cares about gas prices is if/when people loudly blame him for it, which presumably will happen.

I would imagine, however, that the real problem for the GOP is if gas is at the current level or higher come the summer when people start taking trips. Even if gas prices then go down by November, that's the sort of thing even low-information voters remember.

This all might just be cope from me, however.

Gas will eventually become cheaper though it may not go back to the prices they before the war. But, if we are being honest with ourselves, we would all acknowledge that gas prices probably should be around $7/gal already and the only reason they are not is because the government suppresses the price because we have been conditioned to gas prices being cheap. Don't get me wrong. I am not advocating for the $7/gal gas. I am just acknowledging that without that suppression, gas would be significantly more expensive than what we are used to. It is also inconsistent with all our free market rhetoric. Oh and none of that acknowledges the other energy costs that we have that continue to rise in the background so when we cheer about getting back to something closer to $3 per gallon at the pump, $500+ electric and natural gas bill are becoming more and more the norm.

The thing is my post wasn't about the specifics of this war. My post from a frustration I have with us as citizens, as voters and the government we elected in this case when it comes to military action. Any major military success we have had as a country historically has required a certain amount of "belly" and tolerance in all forms from the folks back home. We need to accept what those amounts are and proceed accordingly when it comes to military action. That means clear justifications, objectives, cost etc. IMO.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I've read analysts that have said gas prices may never go down to where they were before this. Similar to covid, reliability with shipping is actually favored over efficiency and the Straight of Hormuz will never be considered reliable again.

The administration is also running out of levers to pull for gas prices and we're starting to feel the 14 million or so barrels a day removed from the market.

One excuse will be as good as another to gouge once things settle down.
Look at groceries post covid as a prime example.

[JPhillips]

This is a VEEP plan. WTF?

Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.

It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.

[albionmoonlight]

I had no idea Ahmadinejad was still alive

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This is a VEEP plan. WTF?

The plan is so crazy in the NYT article. They bombed the compound he was being held in to free him but injured him in the process and he, probably smartly, decided being President of Iran didn't sound so good anymore and now there's no backup plan.

This war has accomplished absolutely fuck all except raise prices and kill some of our soldiers.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The plan is so crazy in the NYT article. They bombed the compound he was being held in to free him but injured him in the process and he, probably smartly, decided being President of Iran didn't sound so good anymore and now there's no backup plan.

This war has accomplished absolutely fuck all except raise prices and kill some of our soldiers.

Its accomplishments are way worse than fuck all. It’s proven to Iran that we can’t control them and at the same time they can control the strait. Iran has never been in a stronger position.

[GrantDawg]

Iran has shut down the airspace over the north half of the country. Attacks are expected to start very soon.

[RainMaker]

Holiday weekend when the markets are closed. Let me guess, we will have reports of a potential deal on Monday night.