If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[Flasch186]

Let me guess

Republican?

The projection is an incredible new tool found only in the last 5 years or so


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[stevew]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

More voter fraud.

Former NC congressman registered to vote in home where he purportedly never stayed :: WRAL.com

Trump's friggin Chief of Staff and advisor. Not just some random Congressman.

[Ksyrup]

worst. verdict. ever. pic.twitter.com/3VGFUYn9fu

— Dang Laser (@youranalogbuddy) March 8, 2022

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Any reason why he didn't take a plea? I mean there were photos and videos of him committing the crime. Plus him bragging about it after. The guys own son testified against him (this is the guy who threatened to murder his kids if they snitched).

[NobodyHere]

Do we know if he was offered one?

Like you said, it was pretty simple case for the prosecutors.

[albionmoonlight]

A defendant can always plead guilty. And, in federal court, it does have a small effect on your likely sentence regardless of whether it is part of a deal or not (it is formally called "acceptance of responsibility.").

But if there was no offer on the table beyond that, I can see why a defendant would roll the dice with trial--especially in a politically charged case like this one that might get some jury nullification.

[stevew]

All of these guys are getting pardoned in January of 2025 anyways.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

All of these guys are getting pardoned in January of 2025 anyways.

You really think most of them will get sentences that long anyway?

[stevew]

Whomever is left is getting out.

[Lathum]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/polit...ict/index.html

These people should be shot for treason. That's how they think. Is it not?

[stevew]

The guy I referenced a few pages back supposedly killed himself cause he was looking at around 5-7 years cause he threw a flag pole like a spear at cops. Of course that was left out of his obit.

[Lathum]

Sentencing for this clown is June 8th. Will be interesting to see what he gets and if it spurns others to take plea deals.

[RainMaker]

Registered in 2 states and voting in both for different elections.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/u...-carolina.html

[RainMaker]

Interesting decision.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...eath-rcna19433

[albionmoonlight]

There was a lot to say about Trump's presidency. But one thing that was well known and that he wasn't shy about was his connection to Russia. And, in addition, he was impeached for threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine. One can argue over whether that was an impeachable offense or not, but it seems like if the average voter has a vague sense of what Trump foreign policy was, it would be some mush of (1) Build the Wall; (2) Pro-Russia; and (3) withholding military aid to Ukraine.

How the hell have other GOP contenders not jumped on him for this? World events and current public opinion could not have played out worse for him. Are they waiting for after the mid-terms?

[Lathum]

As long as Trump controls 35-40% of the base, and TBH he may have more from my observations, no one is going to challenge him and get primaried. I think they are all waiting around to see what he will do. If he doesn't run the race is on. If he does they fall in line and hope for his blessing in 2028 assuming the constitution doesn't get rewritten.

DeSantis is the only one I can see mounting a challenge, but that dude has some problems of his own with this don't say gay bill.

[albionmoonlight]

And I guess it seems to me like the other GOP contenders are taking the fact that Trump controls 40% of the base as this immutable law of nature., when it really isn’t. If they start attacking him (and Lord knows there are a lot of grounds to attack him on) they can start to shrink that number. Primary voters are much more malleable than general election voters.

[JPhillips]

But some of the ones that attack him will be consumed in the fire and nobody with any ambition is willing to take that risk.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

There was a lot to say about Trump's presidency. But one thing that was well known and that he wasn't shy about was his connection to Russia. And, in addition, he was impeached for threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine. One can argue over whether that was an impeachable offense or not, but it seems like if the average voter has a vague sense of what Trump foreign policy was, it would be some mush of (1) Build the Wall; (2) Pro-Russia; and (3) withholding military aid to Ukraine.

How the hell have other GOP contenders not jumped on him for this? World events and current public opinion could not have played out worse for him. Are they waiting for after the mid-terms?

Do Republicans really care about the Russia issue? I mean I know where the polling is, but it doesn't mean any would base their vote on it.

There still seems to be a lot of support for Russia at the top of the party. Influential people like Carlson have come out openly rooting for Russia to succeed.

It could be a liability if things get really bad in the area. But I do think that base likes Putin and buys into the propaganda quite easily.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

And I guess it seems to me like the other GOP contenders are taking the fact that Trump controls 40% of the base as this immutable law of nature., when it really isn’t. If they start attacking him (and Lord knows there are a lot of grounds to attack him on) they can start to shrink that number. Primary voters are much more malleable than general election voters.

I think it is an immutable law of nature. What do you honestly think at this point they could attack him on that would shrink that base?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think it is an immutable law of nature. What do you honestly think at this point they could attack him on that would shrink that base?

(1) Donald J. Trump Pays Court-Ordered $2 Million For Illegally Using Trump Foundation FundsÂ* | New York State Attorney General

"You agreed that your charities are so corrupt that you had to shut them down and agree to not start a new one. Now, now, Donnie, before you start, I'm sure you're gonna start whining that that was a witch hunt and that you didn't do anything wrong. Then why did you sign the paper? Why did you settle? Why didn't you fight? You're supposed to be such a tough guy. But as soon as anyone challenged you, you cried like a little baby and asked what you could sign to make the mean lady go away. Here's some news, Donnie: When Putin starts pushing you around, there won't be any paper he lets you sign to make it go away."

(2) Trump touts five-word memory test as showing he is 'cognitively there' | CTV News

"'Person, woman, man, camera, TV.' You were so proud of that, remember? You went strutting around acting like you won a gold medal. We all had to keep from laughing in your face. But, man, we laughed behind your back. That's a senility test, Donnie. They made you take a senility test, and you were so stupid that not only did you not realize it, you bragged about it. And we expect you to negotiate against Xi? And Putin? With 'person, woman, man, camera, TV?' Really? That's going to keep our farmers from getting destroyed in trade negotiations? China is licking its chops waiting for you to come back to the table and sell them what's left of America."

(3) Trump’s border wall reportedly in severe disrepair in Arizona | Donald Trump | The Guardian

"'Build the Wall! Make Mexico pay for it!' Y'all remember that? I do. Hey, Donnie, where's the check? Did you deposit it with one of your charities? Because I ain't never seen it. Mexico didn't pay for it. We did. And apparently the wall ain't there no more. You know why? It rained. I'm not kidding. Apparently it rained, and the wall fell down. Your dad was a great builder. He is looking down from Heaven at you with shame. You couldn't build a wall. A wall! Lord help us if you ever promise to build a roof."

(4) Eric Trump in 2014: 'We have all the funding we need out of Russia' | TheHill

"So remember when y'all were all bragging about having all the money you need from Russia? So you don't even need any American money? Well, Russia is broke. Where you gonna go for money now? Who you gonna sell us to, next? China? Saudi Arabia? North Korea? Maybe if you and your kids stopped losing hundreds of millions of dollars at a time, you wouldn't need to keep making deals where you sell us out to pull your bacon out of the fire."

(5) 2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

"You lost. And you will lose again. Biden is so beatable. And you are the one guy who is thinking of running who can't beat him. Have you seen how old Justice Thomas is? Justice Alito? We finally have some real conservatives on the Supreme Court. We cannot afford to let Biden take that away from us. You run against Biden; you lose; you complain; and the Supreme Court gets a 5-4 liberal Democrat majority. We need to win; this election is more important than your ego."

(6) GOP Strategists Blame Trump For Georgia Senate Losses : NPR

"Speaking of the courts, we'd have a Senate majority if if weren't for you. Every single liberal Democrat judge that Biden has appointed? They would have had to go through Mitch McConnell. But you had to screw all that up. Why should we lose the Senate again? Do we really need Chuck Schumer deciding who should be a federal judge?"

[albionmoonlight]

The point is, you do not attack him in the same way that liberals would attack him. I agree that those attacks only harden his base. You attack him for being weak. And pathetic. I think those attacks could resonate.

[Lathum]

I appreciate you taking the time to lay that our but I don't think it moves the needle one bit with Trump voters. I am talking the die hard base, not the people who hold their nose and vote him.

You are starting from a place of these people being rational actors and they aren't. They are cult members and nothing is going to take them off their demigod.

[GrantDawg]

I agree. That base is hard cement. To admit now that he is weak would be admitting that they were wrong. Everything about them says they are like their leader. They would never admit to being wrong about anything.

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[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I agree. That base is hard cement.

And, to add on, he doesn't even need to control a majority of the GOP vote to have a stranglehold on the GOP. Even 20% probably does it, because Trump telling his 20% to stay home is enough to sink almost any GOP Senator, a lot of Reps, and of course a POTUS candidate. Not that it necessarily needs to come down to that. This fear alone does two things: 1) encourages current GOP politicians to toe the line / kiss the ring and 2) encourages even further-right candidates to try and primary those folks.

[RainMaker]

This is a new one.

HAPPENING NOW: In-court drama as #CapitolRiot Lucas Denney tries to plead guilty to indictment that government is now saying could be dismissed. Earlier: https://t.co/2BChnSimZl

— Josh Gerstein (@joshgerstein) March 14, 2022

[Ksyrup]

The "political prisoner" folks are going to have a field day with that one.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

And, to add on, he doesn't even need to control a majority of the GOP vote to have a stranglehold on the GOP. Even 20% probably does it, because Trump telling his 20% to stay home is enough to sink almost any GOP Senator, a lot of Reps, and of course a POTUS candidate. Not that it necessarily needs to come down to that. This fear alone does two things: 1) encourages current GOP politicians to toe the line / kiss the ring and 2) encourages even further-right candidates to try and primary those folks.

The Georgia primaries are going to be a good gauge of Trump's strength. Not so much in the Senate where being a former Heisman winner from the state school basically assures Walker an easy win, but Kemp is so far holding a big lead on David Perdue who Trump talked into running against Kemp. Perdue was very popular in the GOP, and with Trump's endorsement I really expected a better showing than he has so far given. If Kemp wins, it might be a sign that Trump's base can be overcome and maybe give a backbone to some of these lily-livered Republicans. Especially if Kemp wins without6 a run-off, which is what the last Fox poll was showing as possible.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The Georgia primaries are going to be a good gauge of Trump's strength. Not so much in the Senate where being a former Heisman winner from the state school basically assures Walker an easy win, but Kemp is so far holding a big lead on David Perdue who Trump talked into running against Kemp. Perdue was very popular in the GOP, and with Trump's endorsement I really expected a better showing than he has so far given. If Kemp wins, it might be a sign that Trump's base can be overcome and maybe give a backbone to some of these lily-livered Republicans. Especially if Kemp wins without6 a run-off, which is what the last Fox poll was showing as possible.

I agree completely, though it is still telling (and sad) that the anti-Trump candidate in the race is actually very pro-Trump. He just wasn't willing to brazenly lie and cheat for Trump.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I agree completely, though it is still telling (and sad) that the anti-Trump candidate in the race is actually very pro-Trump. He just wasn't willing to brazenly lie and cheat for Trump.

True, but I think a Kemp win would be a solid example for others in the GOP that you don't have to follow Trump on everything. It could also quite possibly be a "win a battle, lose the war" for Kemp. Even with the voter suppression laws and such, if the more ardent Trump base stays home or refuses to vote for Kemp in the general, Stacy Abrams wins by a landslide. Heck, I am probably voting GOP ballot in the primary to help make sure he wins.

[Ksyrup]

On the Kemp/Trump thing...

New Poll for GA Governor’s Race: American Viewpoint Poll -
GA GOVERNOR GOP PRIMARY:

Brian Kemp 51% (+15)
David Perdue 36%

President Trump Favorability GA
Favorable 88%
Unfavorable 11%

03/11/2022 https://t.co/e7Qnore7Nw

— Inside Georgia Politics (@insidegapol) March 15, 2022

[NobodyHere]

GOP Senate Candidate Herschel Walker Suggests Evolution Isn't Real Because 'There Are Still Apes'

[Lathum]

He will still win because he was good at football and most of the GOP voters will think he has a good point...

[RainMaker]

My goodness. https://t.co/zw91ZQXIQa pic.twitter.com/llQwJRgXmx

— Adam Weinstein (@AdamWeinstein) March 16, 2022

[JPhillips]

Everything going as planned for the white nationalist prty.

"In Harris County, which includes Houston and is the state’s most populous county, areas with large Black populations were 44 percent more likely to have ballots rejected than heavily white areas."

[Ksyrup]

Here's a funny moment from the concert I went to last night. The band is from Norway. Near the end of the show, the lead singer announced they had one more song and of course the crowd started yelling for more. So he stopped, said "I'm going to try this again" and repeated that this is the last song. More yelling. So he said, "Look, making more noise is not going to change the fact that this is the last song. A fact is still a fact even if you refuse to believe it." Then he paused and said, "I understand you have trouble with that concept in the US, so it's all good."

The crowd roared laughing (despite the fact that we were in Tennessee), and it was a perfectly timed, spontaneous line, but that's a sad and appropriate commentary on our country right now - an international punchline.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I appreciate you taking the time to lay that our but I don't think it moves the needle one bit with Trump voters. I am talking the die hard base, not the people who hold their nose and vote him.

You are starting from a place of these people being rational actors and they aren't. They are cult members and nothing is going to take them off their demigod.

psssst that base is LITERALLY dying off. Google "Herman Cain Award" sometime or check out facebook, twitter, and reddit groups of same...

[Toddzilla]

It's nigh time the SDNY tells the Trump kids that they have one slot open and one slot only for full-immunity testimony regarding the Trump Foundation and watch them fall all over themselves to be first in line.

[Atocep]

How White Victimhood Fuels Republican Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Interesting article from 538. The key takeaway is:

At the end of Obama's Presidency 54% of Republicans believed discrimination against white people was at least as bad as discrimination against blacks and other minorities. At the end of Trump's Presidency that number was up to 73%. Meanwhile, the percentage for dems and independents has largely been trending downward for the last 10+ years.

[GrantDawg]

My boss once told me he just thinks Democrats hate white people. Anything that supports non-white people takes away from white people in their minds.

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[BYU 14]

Only the best people, ladies and gentlemen, meet Kid Rock, foreign Policy advisor

Kid Rock: Trump asked for advice on ISIS, North Korea

[sterlingice]

More from the "all the best people" category

Trump aide Manafort removed from plane for revoked passport

Like stuff out of a movie, Manafort tries to flee the country to Dubai with a revoked passport.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Trump revoked his endorsement of Mo Brooks, who is currently running third in Alabama's GOP Primary.

If a Trump-endorsed guy was running third among Alabama Republicans, that's gotta be a signal of something, right?

[Ksyrup]

You could take that as a positive, or you could take it that the movement has so outgrown its originator that a whole new set of crazies have supplanted him. I say that not knowing anything about the #1 and 2 candidates, but more as a general observation of the GOP as a whole.

[Ksyrup]

Which came first, the chicken or the chickenshit?

������BREAKING: Congressman Mo Brooks says in a new statement: “Donald Trump asked me to rescind the 2020 elections, immediately remove Joe Biden from the White House, immediately put President Trump back in the White House, and hold a new special election for the presidency."

— Spiro Agnew’s Ghost ������������ (@SpiroAgnewGhost) March 23, 2022

[Ksyrup]

These people have to be faking this level of stupidity for the PR, right?

As allergy season gets underway, I encourage everyone to take their allergy medicines so that my allergy medicines can work.

You know, it doesn’t work unless everyone takes it.

��

— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) March 23, 2022

[RainMaker]

Charlie Kirk: Ketanji Brown Jackson “is what your country looks like on critical race theory”https://t.co/d1P5USeQKP pic.twitter.com/5vFgE9kAQ4

— Jason Campbell (@JasonSCampbell) March 23, 2022

[flere-imsaho]

Charlie Kirk is what your country looks like on huffing paint.

[RainMaker]

Per NYT, a top prosecutor who investigated Trump said the former president was “guilty of numerous felony violations” and that it was “a grave failure of justice” for the Manhattan DA to stop pursuing an indictment.https://t.co/QNVeMCnP36 pic.twitter.com/bTJRpyJflL

— Jan Wolfe (@JanNWolfe) March 23, 2022

[Ksyrup]

It appears the takeaway from the various would-be prosecutions, whether it's a NY DA or Garland, is that somehow taking down a former president would forever alter our country - that prosecuting such an important national political figure would inevitably lead to a string of never-ending political prosecutions as revenge. Kind of a political version of gang wars.

That's all I can take from so many people in a position to do the right (and obvious) thing just sitting back and doing nothing while pretending to do something.

Trump knew exactly what he could do and that he would get away with it.