The Trump Presidency – 2016

[cuervo72]

Probably not - the father was lauding the administration for bringing him back, where the old one hadn't.

[Edward64]

I'm sorry. Any US citizen going into NK has had fair warning for a while now. US foreign policy should not be held hostage to a bad decision to go (regardless if they are really guilty or not).

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The GOP is going to reluctantly stick with Trump. The investigation is going to be a massive distraction to him and unless there is really a smoking gun, Trump is going to be with us at least for the next 3 years.

Trump has shown he will lie, deflect, and distract. The ultimate deflection and distraction is going to be some conflict (likely with our favorite crazy kid in NK) and he knows the US will rally behind him.

It's like Team45 was sitting back saying "if only some politically and racially divisive thing could come along and create a massive distraction to get all the easy marks fired up for a while..."

[kingfc22]

"The President's tweets are official statements".....

"The President's tweets are incomplete due to Twitter's character limitations"

This f'n circus just doesn't stop.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

"The President's tweets are official statements".....

"The President's tweets are incomplete due to Twitter's character limitations"

This f'n circus just doesn't stop.

Holy crap. This exchange between Chris Wallace and Trump's lawyer is absolutely incredible. pic.twitter.com/Wem33Lc1VK

— David Mack (@davidmackau) June 18, 2017

[bob]

Since this is the political catchall thread...

Supposedly the Ossoff campaign has spent over $23 million already, making this the most expensive congressional race ever. Is it really worth it for the dems to win one seat that they are going to have to run for again next year when they don't have that kind of money to spend? Presumably they don't have unlimited money, right?

[JPhillips]

In the general, no, but in this primary that money isn't going to go into other races. People want to give to this race, not to a party account for future expenditures.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bob

Since this is the political catchall thread...

Supposedly the Ossoff campaign has spent over $23 million already, making this the most expensive congressional race ever. Is it really worth it for the dems to win one seat that they are going to have to run for again next year when they don't have that kind of money to spend? Presumably they don't have unlimited money, right?

It seems to be a case where being the only thing going has weighed heavily.

The maddening thing for most residents in the Atlanta viewing area is the insane amount of ads combined with the fact that the majority of viewers in the market can't even legally vote in the race.

There's been so much money available for advertising for this that I happen to know that at least one (if not both, I haven't verified that) campaign has been running cable spots -- which are sold by "zone", approximating countys -- in areas that have zero voters involved.

They literally have so much cash that they're having problems spending it all.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It seems to be a case where being the only thing going has weighed heavily.

The maddening thing for most residents in the Atlanta viewing area is the insane amount of ads combined with the fact that the majority of viewers in the market can't even legally vote in the race.

There's been so much money available for advertising for this that I happen to know that at least one (if not both, I haven't verified that) campaign has been running cable spots -- which are sold by "zone", approximating countys -- in areas that have zero voters involved.

They literally have so much cash that they're having problems spending it all.

I haven't lived in the Atlanta area in over 11 years, but my social media feed has been peppered with people complaining about how bad the candidates are and how annoying the ads have been.

[miked]

I am firmly in the 5th (or wherever Hank Johnson is) and I see nothing but Ossoff and a few Handel signs all over my neighborhood. The lines are drawn a little funky around me, so there could be somebody in the Oak Grove area that is in the 6th, but the district lines are silly.

I did see somebody with a funny, Get your Ossoff my lawn sign though. I can't believe anyone would believe Karen Handel is fit for any office, but I guess she has the right letter next to her name.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I haven't lived in the Atlanta area in over 11 years, but my social media feed has been peppered with people complaining about how bad the candidates are and how annoying the ads have been.

It is, kind of ironically, the one thing that seems to be crossing party lines. This has been insanity. It's so bad that we've started using apps (for the NHL playoffs) to avoid the local ads, my wife even abandoned a show last night & switched to QVC just to get away from the onslaught.

I've always steadfastly opposed limits on campaign spending but this race (combined with an absurd spending on a state house race a couple years ago) has me re-thinking that position somewhat, on the grounds of cruel & unusual punishment for innocent voters.

[ISiddiqui]

It's quite bad, but even worse for folks that live in the district. I have coworkers that live in the 6th and they tell of basically wave after wave of volunteers knocking on doors.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It's quite bad, but even worse for folks that live in the district. I have coworkers that live in the 6th and they tell of basically wave after wave of volunteers knocking on doors.

Heh. I actually saw a (D) in the district mention on social media that they were going to put an NRA sticker on their front door just to try to ward off the doorknockers.

[ISiddiqui]

Ah, but then you'd get the Handel ones (yep, there are both parties knocking).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Heh. I actually saw a (D) in the district mention on social media that they were going to put an NRA sticker on their front door just to try to ward off the doorknockers.

Though that does remind me - off topic - I'm sure I've made a fellow driver in Atlanta blow their minds due to my bumper magnets. I have 3 of them - a Hillary Clinton magnet, an Atlanta United magnet, and a #78 Martin Truex, Jr. magnet. I'm just curious as to which folks are more puzzled - the liberals wondering about the NASCAR magnet or the conservatives wondering about the Hillary magnet?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Though that does remind me - off topic - I'm sure I've made a fellow driver in Atlanta blow their minds due to my bumper magnets. I have 3 of them - a Hillary Clinton magnet, an Atlanta United magnet, and a #78 Martin Truex, Jr. magnet. I'm just curious as to which folks are more puzzled - the liberals wondering about the NASCAR magnet or the conservatives wondering about the Hillary magnet?

The latter.

The former has no clue who Martin Truex, Jr is

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The latter.

The former has no clue who Martin Truex, Jr is

But they see a number and usually put 2 and 2 together. A friend of ours came by and saw my car and asked my gf "So Imran is a NASCAR fan now?" I'm positive he has no clue about any driver in NASCAR (well perhaps with the exception of Junior... but everyone has heard of him).

[lungs]

Can I come out of the closet as a liberal NASCAR fan? I started gambling on it a few years ago and next thing you know, I'm kind of enjoying it. But I'm a farmer and live in the country so I was a bit predisposed......

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lungs

Can I come out of the closet as a liberal NASCAR fan? I started gambling on it a few years ago and next thing you know, I'm kind of enjoying it. But I'm a farmer and live in the country so I was a bit predisposed......

I hear there are a few of us around, but not all that many apparently . The guy who introduced the sport to me (and indicated that Truex would be a fine driver for me to follow due to our shared New Jersey roots) is a left-of-center person as well. Though he is from the suburbs of Atlanta.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I hear there are a few of us around, but not all that many apparently . The guy who introduced the sport to me (and indicated that Truex would be a fine driver for me to follow due to our shared New Jersey roots) is a left-of-center person as well. Though he is from the suburbs of Atlanta.

I'm in a NASCAR pool at a local bowling alley. Given some of the racial attitudes among a few members, I'd love to see Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace do well

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lungs

I'm in a NASCAR pool at a local bowling alley. Given some of the racial attitudes among a few members, I'd love to see Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace do well

You and me both, brother! Kyle Larson being half-Japanese is kind of fun as well.

[bob]

I could probably wall paper a room or two with the number of flyers I have received in the mail for the election in the past month. Ready for it to be over.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Was watching Charlie Rose early this morning and he had a former Intelligence director on there. He was talking about the middle east and the biggest threat right now that isn't really being talked about, and that's what happens as Syria gets tighter and tighter.

He mentioned that the US took out some Syrian fighters recently because they got too close to a training area for US fighters and allies. That Russia recently attacked US allies that got too close to their staging areas. This is going to continue to escalate and there's really no plan for what the next phase is.

It really has the seeds for something much bigger when its US and allies v. Russia/Syria assuming that the big battle Raqqa ends without any sort of plan, what's the next step, because this is how real wars start.

This incident with the Syrian fighter jet is yet another example. The Russians are pulling back and throwing out warnings. It's not big news right now, but it's the bedrock for something else than we've see before in this conflict. It's a path to a bad place.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I wonder if that kid coming home from N.Korea in a coma with what it looks like permanent brain damage will be the final thing that sparks a war.

He has now died.

[Thomkal]

Looks like Trump has gone to DEFCON2 with the media. Spicer held the daily press briefing with no audio/video allowed.

CNN's Jim Acosta unloads on White House over off-camera briefings - Jun. 19, 2017

[JediKooter]

Aaaaand Spicy's gone.

[PilotMan]

Guess that makes Huckabee-Sanders next man up?

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Guess that makes Huckabee-Sanders next man up?

She is probably the lucky winner indeed.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Looks like Trump has gone to DEFCON2 with the media. Spicer held the daily press briefing with no audio/video allowed.

CNN's Jim Acosta unloads on White House over off-camera briefings - Jun. 19, 2017

Good for him, man. This isn't North Korea.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Looks like Trump has gone to DEFCON2 with the media. Spicer held the daily press briefing with no audio/video allowed.

CNN's Jim Acosta unloads on White House over off-camera briefings - Jun. 19, 2017

And the media is going right along with it. There's no law saying that they have to attend these no recording briefings. But they will. They will piss and moan about it. But they won't actually do something that could change it.

[larrymcg421]

Not feeling good about Ossoff's chances tonight. The PredictIt money has shifted against him the past few days and now has him at only .47

[JPhillips]

I'm very confident in a Handel victory as tribalism matters most of all in American politics. A district that's traditionally so Republican is very unlikely to elect a Dem.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm very confident in a Handel victory as tribalism matters most of all in American politics. A district that's traditionally so Republican is very unlikely to elect a Dem.

Eh, that's a very lukewarm district at this point. I'd be surprised if Asshat managed to screw it up honestly, Handel isn't exactly what you'd call an inspiring candidate.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, that's a very lukewarm district at this point. I'd be surprised if Asshat managed to screw it up honestly, Handel isn't exactly what you'd call an inspiring candidate.

It's still a very Republican district. Trump is just a bad fit for it. Price won re-election by 23 points while Trump only won it by 1 pt.

[digamma]

To state the obvious, it all comes down to who can turn out their supporters. Ossoff's base is definitely more motivated, but I don't think he wins on his base. I'll be interested to see what the fall off in voters is from the special election. I didn't look it up, but isn't it usually 40% or so?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, that's a very lukewarm district at this point. I'd be surprised if Asshat managed to screw it up honestly, Handel isn't exactly what you'd call an inspiring candidate.

It has been overwhelmingly GOP since Carter in House and Presidential elections with the notable exception of Trump/Clinton. Maybe that matters more than partisan history, but I doubt it.

edit: You have a lot of people that consider themselves life-long Republicans that will have to vote for a Dem for an Ossoff victory. That could happen, but it's unlikely.

[JPhillips]

The Senate process on the healthcare bill is going to cause immense damage to our system. Once norms are broken they are very difficult to restore. Secret legislation with very short voting windows is going to become the new norm for both parties.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by digamma

To state the obvious, it all comes down to who can turn out their supporters. Ossoff's base is definitely more motivated, but I don't think he wins on his base. I'll be interested to see what the fall off in voters is from the special election. I didn't look it up, but isn't it usually 40% or so?

Bad news for the Dems today. It's been raining all day. It's not pouring at least.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

edit: You have a lot of people that consider themselves life-long Republicans that will have to vote for a Dem for an Ossoff victory. That could happen, but it's unlikely.

It's a very lightweight fluffy set of Republicans though. These are not, generally, Reagan Repubs. More Goldwatery. For them to make the jump isn't really much of a switch.

(Hell, as lousy a candidate as Handel is, she wouldn't have been a leap for probably 1/3rd of Ds either)

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Bad news for the Dems today. It's been raining all day. It's not pouring at least.

District under a flash-flood warning until right after the polls close-mostly affecting Democratic parts of the district-how did the R's arrange that with God?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

To state the obvious, it all comes down to who can turn out their supporters. Ossoff's base is definitely more motivated, but I don't think he wins on his base. I'll be interested to see what the fall off in voters is from the special election. I didn't look it up, but isn't it usually 40% or so?

There probably will be an increase in voters for the runoff. 140k have already voted early. Total voters last round was 193k.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

District under a flash-flood warning until right after the polls close-mostly affecting Democratic parts of the district-how did the R's arrange that with God?

And now it's pouring in downtown Atlanta... has been for a few hours.

I think this gives it to Handel.

[Easy Mac]

If that's you're excuse for not voting, then you deserve what you're stuck with.

[ISiddiqui]

Welcome to the reality of GOTV?

[Jas_lov]

Wouldn't the bad weather be more likely to hurt Handel? Her base is older and not as motivated. And I thought Ossoff banked a lead in the early vote.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Wouldn't the bad weather be more likely to hurt Handel? Her base is older and not as motivated. And I thought Ossoff banked a lead in the early vote.

The bad weather is worst in the Democratic areas of the district. Although some Republicans have tweeted concern that 400 north will be jammed for those GOPers coming home from work to get to their polling place.

[ISiddiqui]

Well usual thinking is that less turnout benefits the Republicans while more turnout benefits the Democrats - because the general Republican base (old, rich, etc) is more willing to vote regardless

[JonInMiddleGA]

The impact of the weather may be overstated here. This is a district that does not rely as heavily as most for black voters to supply the core (D) votes. Black voters & lower income voters (which often have significant overlay) are the demographic groups that seem to generally be most impacted in turnout by rain/snow.

[Thomkal]

So South Carolina has become an interesting contest all of a sudden-Democrat was ahead until just recently-now falling behind quickly. Georgia still too close to call at this point with Handel very slightly ahead.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt has Handel at .89 cents right now.