POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[GrantDawg]

The other big thing I heard brought up today was we are in a situation where an October surprise couldn't definitely determine the outcome, and you have to think that could only mean a Harris loss. After everything that is out there about Trump, I can't even imagine any "surprise" about him that would affect his votes. War in the Middle East is the most obvious, but something like a major terror attack or a personal scandal that breaks could spell doom.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The biggest shocker today are new Quinnipiac polls that have Trump +2 in Wisconsin and +4 in Michigan. Last month, they had Harris +1 in Wisconsin and Harris +5 in Michigan.

And for the first time since the debate, Trump has regained a slight lead in the betting markets.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Kshama Sawant has been working for Jill Stein in Michigan. It's really the only state Stein is putting effort into because they feel if Stein keeps Kamala from winning Michigan then she doesn't have a path to the Presidency. That's from Sawant's mouth.

Sawant is a former Seattle City Council member that was a disaster. She had multiple corruption allegations, used city funds to advertise against ballot initiatives, then when caught complained that she had too many regulations to follow while corporations are free to spend as much as they want.

As a city council member she encouraged disruptive protests to shut down city services, said the state should seize Microsoft, Boeing, etc because they should be owned by the public. She pushed for the city to seize certain apartment complexes in the city because they're in beautiful areas and anything beautiful should be owned by the public.

Eventually, she barely survived a recall and then decided not to run again. Every group she ends up aligning with gets tired of her so she bounces around quite a bit. She's essentially the far left boogeyman that the right has made AOC and company out to be.

[JPhillips]

I don't at all believe there's been an 8 point swing in MI over the last three weeks. The Q poll's methodology allows for some big shifts from poll to poll. Throw it in the average, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.

[Lathum]

What drives me nuts is the double standard. I hear a lot of people saying they need to know more about Harrises policies and how she is going to implement that. That the whole just not being Trump isn't good enough.

It is maddening because while she is actually discussing what she wants to do in a coherent manner Trump is literally repeating Nazi talking points word for word. We saw 4 years of Trump and the empty promises and total lack of any level of organization but god forbid Harris doesn't do a deep dive into the economic ramifications of her policies.

I still have to think at the end of the day the undecideds who hold these views break for her. I think people are just so tired of Trump and the never ending circus he brings. IF we elect his then we aren't the country I thought we were and i will fear for my daughter. and gay son

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The other big thing I heard brought up today was we are in a situation where an October surprise couldn't definitely determine the outcome, and you have to think that could only mean a Harris loss. After everything that is out there about Trump, I can't even imagine any "surprise" about him that would affect his votes. War in the Middle East is the most obvious, but something like a major terror attack or a personal scandal that breaks could spell doom.

Allan Lichtman who does the 13 keys that have correctly predicted 9/10 elections the only loss being 2000 claims there is no such thing as an October surprise and doesn't factor them in to his method. He has Harris winning.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

What drives me nuts is the double standard. I hear a lot of people saying they need to know more about Harrises policies and how she is going to implement that. That the whole just not being Trump isn't good enough.

It is maddening because while she is actually discussing what she wants to do in a coherent manner Trump is literally repeating Nazi talking points word for word. We saw 4 years of Trump and the empty promises and total lack of any level of organization but god forbid Harris doesn't do a deep dive into the economic ramifications of her policies.

I still have to think at the end of the day the undecideds who hold these views break for her. I think people are just so tired of Trump and the never ending circus he brings. IF we elect his then we aren't the country I thought we were and i will fear for my daughter. and gay son

Another thing Trump said that would end the Harris campaign.

Trump: I'm not sure that I've ever even heard of a Category Five hurricane. I don't know that I've ever even heard the term

[Lathum]

Yeah. I heard that and it makes me nuts because it is one of those things that should at the very least should call in to question if this is the person you want at the helm of a disaster, but instead it is just Trump being Trump. His insanity and downright stupidity have been completely normalized.

[GrantDawg]

Tim Waltz is playing WOW on Twitch tonight.

Edit: Actually it was less cool. They broadcast a rally while a WOW player played and provided commentary.

[JPhillips]

Dems in NC filed a bill to give people in western NC a few more days to register and turn in absentee ballots. Every GOPer voted against it, killing the bill.

Then they'll complain like hell if NC goes blue.

[albionmoonlight]

Very anecdotal, but I was driving through rural Eastern NC yesterday, and I saw a fair amount of Harris/Walz signs. Of course, a lot of Trump signs, too, but I expected that. But in 2016 and 2020, there were only Trump signs out there. Now it was about 50/50.

That could mean nothing more than the fact that Harris decided to focus more on getting signs out to people. But the fact that people in rural NC are even willing to be public about supporting a Dem does seems like a bit of a shift.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Dems in NC filed a bill to give people in western NC a few more days to register and turn in absentee ballots. Every GOPer voted against it, killing the bill.

Then they'll complain like hell if NC goes blue.

Not entirely true.

There was a bipartisan bill to loosing voting restrictions in the western counties (all very pro-Trump but for Asheville) that passed (or maybe it was the board of elections and not the legislature, but it passed and was bipartisan).

The Dems wanted to expand that to the entire state on the theory that people in other parts of the state are still affected by going out west to help family, etc. And THAT was struck down by the GOP on party lines.

So bipartisan to help Trump counties. Partisan to help everyone else.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Very anecdotal, but I was driving through rural Eastern NC yesterday, and I saw a fair amount of Harris/Walz signs. Of course, a lot of Trump signs, too, but I expected that. But in 2016 and 2020, there were only Trump signs out there. Now it was about 50/50.

That could mean nothing more than the fact that Harris decided to focus more on getting signs out to people. But the fact that people in rural NC are even willing to be public about supporting a Dem does seems like a bit of a shift.

Kentucky is in the bag for trump, however this year, there are far, far fewer trump signs and many, many more Harris signs in NKY. My wife and I had the same conversation. Energy is way down for trump.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Kentucky is in the bag for trump, however this year, there are far, far fewer trump signs and many, many more Harris signs in NKY. My wife and I had the same conversation. Energy is way down for trump.

Only 1 Trump flag in my neighborhood and it is flying in the persons back yard, nothing at all on the front of peoples houses that I have seen, it's kinda nice. AZ is still gonna go down to the wire though.

[Ghost Econ]

Yeah, my neighborhood has about 7-10 Harris signs, no Trump signs. But if you go towards the suburbs you start seeing more Trump signs.

On a street we take to get to church, there's a house that put out a Trump sign. The house across the street then put out a Harris sign. The Trump house has since been accumulating tacky MAGA shit and draping it all over the house. I guess they have to overcompensate for their neighbor.

[JPhillips]

Getting really hard to see how Dems retain the Senate. Tester looks cooked.

[Ksyrup]

Agree on the fewer number of Trump signs this year, although our city is bluer than most in KY. I still don't think it means that much though. The stigma of voting Dem in a national contest is too much to overcome. I just think it's a recognition that people don't want to be so outwardly associated with Trump anymore because it's embarrassing and they feel like people hold it against them. They might even be having second thoughts about another 4 years of Trump. But they can't or won't bring themselves to vote for Harris.

We drove up to rural north-central KY meet our daughter to do a pet drop-off (we watched their dog while they were in DC for the Browns game), and at exit 59 on I-75, there is a Shell gas station with dozens and dozens of pro-Trump signs all over the grass right on the road. I mean, overkill is too light a word for it. The biggest sign proclaims it to be a Trump supporting station. We didn't need gas but there's no way in hell I would have pulled in there. I would have paid 20 cents more a gallon to get gas across the street.

[Thomkal]

Horry County here is pretty red meat, and the Democratic Party doesn't seem to think they need to put signs up for Harris and any Dem in the last few elections.



I noticed the same houses in my neighborhood that had Trump signs in the last election have them up against and the fewer Harris/Dem signs in the same place too. I don't want to deal with any MAGA bullshit so we are not putting up signs.



Oh and I got my absentee ballot yesterday-woot!

[Atocep]

We live in a conservative pocket of Washington. No way I'd out signs even though our neighbors are pretty nice. I joked with my wife about putting a Taylor Swift for president sign out but she wasn't going for it.

I didn't get her to go with getting a Roll for Inititive welcome matt so I'm calling that a win.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm debating on whether to take a job where my boss would be very MAGA, like conspiracy based on his Twitter. Like, it's impossible to not work for a Republican in SC, but I have my limits

[Kodos]

Sounds like a "Nope!" to me.

[Lathum]

I live in a very red section of Jersey and I’ve seen way more signs this time around for Trump. Very few for Harris and no way I’ll put one up. I live in a very nice area but it only takes one crazy person.

[Lathum]

So I just had to drive to my in laws, about 15 minutes away. I take pretty much one road that is a county road with a lot of houses on it. I saw some Trump signs but what struck me was I saw a lot of houses with down ballot republicans but not Trump signs.

[Ben E Lou]

We live in literally the last neighborhood to the north and west of downtown that is still in the city limits--if you leave our neighborhood using either the north or west entrance, once you cross the street you're in another municipality. Culturally, those two streets to our north and west are as close to an absolute dividing line between "the suburbs" and "the country" as you could ever get. A half mile in one direction from our home, you're talking horses and cows eating grass 15 feet from the road. A couple miles in the other, and you're sitting in the Starbucks in a giant shopping area. Our precinct ends at the city limit, and in the past it has been light pink. It's heavily college-educated whites, so *this* year, my guess is that for POTUS it'll be super-light blue. (Last I checked, Harris had taken a tiny lead with college-educated whites and could be the first Dem in a long time to win with that group overall.) In NC you can register as R, D, or I, and last I checked, my street was like 50% R, 30% D, 20% I. But with the rise of Trumpism, the precinct votes much more blue than those numbers would indicate. (Heck, my wife is one of those still registered as a Republican but who is so irritated with them right now that she might vote a straight D ticket.) As has been the case in the past, in our neighborhood there are extremely few signs for either side, and more for downballot candidates than President. Based on the neighbors I know well and the turnout numbers I've looked at, this immediate area overall tilts heavily toward people who will definitely vote in the election, (IIRC the turnout numbers I saw for 2020 were close to 90%,) but who aren't enthusiastic enough about either POTUS candidate to put up a sign.


As far as signs elsewhere, a major difference for me personally between 2020 and 2024 is that I drive (and run) to the north and west almost infinitely more now than I did in 2020--as in I went in those directions like one or twice per year then, but am close to averaging 7 days a week now out there now. The "country" section is FAR more peppered with yard signage than our neighborhood. Heavily Trump, but more Harris than I'd expect. Even though I see more than a dozen Trump signs in the 8-minute drive to the gym, there's only ONE Robinson sign at any of those homes, even before Minisoldrgate. They have their limits, I guess. (Seriously, even out there in the "country" I see more Stein signs than Robinson ones.)

[Swaggs]

Apparently a tax credit for car loans is Trump's newest policy.

[Swaggs]

My county was close to 50-50 in 2020, with Trump winning by a few thousand. I will guess that Harris will win it this time by the slightest of margins and it will probably be the only blue county in the state. Around town, we see more signs for the (apparently highly contested) sheriff's race than anything else, but also far more down ballot signs than president/governor/US Senate.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Apparently a tax credit for car loans is Trump's newest policy.

Gotta wonder if the GOP has completely abandoned all principles or if they re just willing to lie as much as possible.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Apparently a tax credit for car loans is Trump's newest policy.

The maddening thing is no one will hold his feet to the fire about the logistics of this the way they would Harris.

[JPhillips]

In NE a law was supposed to go into effect in July that would have allowed past felons to vote. The GOP AG and Sec. of State decided it wouldn't be implemented. The case went to the NE Supreme Court, but they keep delaying the ruling and now they probably won't rule before the deadline for registration, making it impossible for these people to vote even if they win the case.

[JPhillips]

dola

More of Trump's brain running at peak efficiency.

"I have more complaints on grocery. The word grocery. You know, it's sorta simple word, but it sorta means like everything you eat. The stomach is speaking. It always does. And, uh, I have more complaints about that. Bacon and things going up."

[cartman]

He was asked a question about his parenting style, which he answered with an 8 minute meandering word salad that ended with him saying all drug dealers should be put to death.

[GrantDawg]

Listen to the full Stern interview as well as the Call Me Daddy interview. Harris did a good job with both. The funny thing that really struck me was at the very beginning of the Stern interview, Howard started to tell a story about his mom, but then stopped himself and said "no, wait. We are here to talk about you" and she made him stop and tell the story. Just that little thing was just such a juxtaposition versus Trump, who there would be zero chance he would want to here a story about anybodies mother more than talking about himself.