COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[JPhillips]

I just saw it referenced this morning.

edit: I saw @7% tonight.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Somewhat similar announcements here from June 1st and onwards. Some leeway starting next Monday. I'm afraid it'll be a disaster and people will just act like we're all out of the lockdown starting tomorrow.

So, June 1st plans were comfirmed last Tuesday. June 1st.
But you know what, people really can't wait for another 10 more days, got all excited on their first day off (today) and get a "let's go to the beach because it's 25 C outside" vibe.

Thankfully, when you're stuck in a traffic jam (how stupid can people be, they should have realized a lot of facilities like parking lots and public toilets are still closed), you can't infect anybody but the others with you inside the car, right?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I just saw it referenced this morning.

edit: I saw @7% tonight.

Here is a writeup: Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows | World news | The Guardian

I must admit this does seem low, but if anything the sample (blood donors 20-64 years old) would skew toward more active people and exclude those sheltered by design or choice.
I think if anything this shows that the biggest drivers for infections are not random short contacts or even stuff like Restaurants or Cafés but really mainly events, clubs/similar and workplaces. All of which were shut down or reduced in Sweden as well (lots of production slowed and more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe).

Would be good to get a study on kids, seeing schools etc stayed open this would be a great oportunity to get insight here and see how the numbers match up.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

Here is a writeup: Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows | World news | The Guardian

I must admit this does seem low, but if anything the sample (blood donors 20-64 years old) would skew toward more active people and exclude those sheltered by design or choice.
I think if anything this shows that the biggest drivers for infections are not random short contacts or even stuff like Restaurants or Cafés but really mainly events, clubs/similar and workplaces. All of which were shut down or reduced in Sweden as well (lots of production slowed and more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe).

Would be good to get a study on kids, seeing schools etc stayed open this would be a great oportunity to get insight here and see how the numbers match up.

Reminded me I saw this article yesterday which suggested the same

‘Superspreader’ events may be responsible for 80 per cent or more of all coronavirus cases

[Brian Swartz]

Michigan continues to gradually take partial steps; the northern parts of the state have restaurants etc. at 50% capacity and statewide auto dealerships/retail outlets can start appointment-only resumption next Tuesday. I think Whitmer is doing a fairly reasonably job of trying to thread the needle on this, I don't really know if it's too fast, too slow, or just right but it's clearly got thought behind it.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Michigan continues to gradually take partial steps; the northern parts of the state have restaurants etc. at 50% capacity and statewide auto dealerships/retail outlets can start appointment-only resumption next Tuesday. I think Whitmer is doing a fairly reasonably job of trying to thread the needle on this, I don't really know if it's too fast, too slow, or just right but it's clearly got thought behind it.

I like the approach of acknowledging that different parts of the state might have different needs. Detroit is not the same as Northern Michigan.

[ISiddiqui]

Well it seems this week was pretty bad for Georgia. Looks like yesterday had 78 deaths reported, which is the 2md highest daily death total? And cases are up this week as well.

Shit

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well it seems this week was pretty bad for Georgia. Looks like yesterday had 78 deaths reported, which is the 2md highest daily death total? And cases are up this week as well.

Shit

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

been about what, 2 weeks since they reopened?

[ISiddiqui]

Closer to a month when the original reopening was. But things kind of slow rolled opened. A lot of places probably didn't open until 2-3 weeks ago.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[miked]

Not too mention that they are using tests that do not measure the active virus to inflate their test counts...

[Edward64]

Not a home run but a good step in the right direction. Official results are in for remdesivir.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/healt...udy/index.html

Researchers have finally published the data that led the federal government to recommend the use of the antiviral drug remdesivir in very ill coronavirus patients, and they say the drug alone will not be enough to help patients.

The data, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, show the drug shortened the course of illness from an average of 15 days to about 11 days.

"Preliminary results of this trial suggest that a 10-day course of remdesivir was superior to placebo in the treatment of hospitalized patients with Covid-19," the researchers wrote. But it was not a cure and it did not act quickly.
:
The team tested 1,063 patients. They found those who got the infused drug recovered after an average of 11 days. Those who got placebo treatment took 15 days on average to recover. As previously reported, 7% of patients who got remdesivir died, compare to 11.9% given placebo infusions. But those results were not statistically significant.

Patients who needed oxygen appeared to benefit the most from the drug, the researchers reported.

"These findings support the use of remdesivir in this population, with the largest benefit observed among individuals who required oxygen supplementation but were not mechanically ventilated," Gilead Sciences, which makes the drug, said in a statement.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Reminded me I saw this article yesterday which suggested the same

‘Superspreader’ events may be responsible for 80 per cent or more of all coronavirus cases

It honestly feels like if we just avoided those superspreader events and wore some masks while out, we could return to a somewhat normal way of life.

[thesloppy]

I live in an area with probably 3-dozen bars within a mile. They're all relatively tiny on their own, probably none with a capacity of more than 150 people, but on the weekends it seems like it might be close to a small-stadium-full-of-people that are shuffling in and out of the same small spaces.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It honestly feels like if we just avoided those superspreader events and wore some masks while out, we could return to a somewhat normal way of life.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/us/ar...rus/index.html

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It honestly feels like if we just avoided those superspreader events and wore some masks while out, we could return to a somewhat normal way of life.

you mean events like partying on florida beaches or attending superchurches or going for a drink in a crowded bar or attending a protest with guns?
Yeah it sure feels like you're right. Go figure

[QuikSand]

Images from Ocean City MD are all over my twitter feed, I assume many places if it's not this one, it's something comparable. I suspect there's a lot of intriguing psychology at work here.

A look at the Ocean City, Maryland boardwalk this afternoon. The sunny weather brought out the people. Masks are encouraged but not required. @wjz #memorialdayweekend2020 pic.twitter.com/rK3gCfoZNB

— Mike Hellgren (@HellgrenWJZ) May 23, 2020

In MD, we are still pretty heavily ravaged by the virus and its effects (still 300 a week dead, state of 6 million) but primarily in our crowded urban/suburban areas. About 10 days ago, our GOP Governor, getting -very- high marks for being fairly aggressive on shut-down and overall handling of this situation, decided to authorize the first stage of re-opening. He deferred to each county on whether it was ready to go based on its caseload, though, and the six or seven with the most cases (and around 80% of the state population) decided they were not ready.

Regardless, when the Governor makes a big announcement that "Maryland is re-opening" that sends a clearer message than the potpourri of local standards - in my county there's a whole online checklist of things that have been relaxed (some) and not yet (most). Notable in this is the Governor retracting some of the easy to remember requirements... stay-at-home became safer-at-home, and wear-a-mask for lots of venues became please-wear-a-mask.

The takeaway? Several things, but probably most visibly our residents from high-virus areas seemingly just packed up and headed to the beach, where they are (by the coverage, it seems) just jamming the boardwalk and public areas with virtually no spacing and no masks. It's not completely business as usual, but it's definitely a bigger spreading threat than what they've got going on where they live, and where they will return by Tuesday.

Anyway... my thinking here is:

-the crowd there doesn't look like a MAGA crowd, it seems like a normal crowded beach day... so this doesn't feel like a demonstration or rebellion of just one political type

-the message "we're going to open up" is just easier to digest than "check for local details and pleased don't overdo it"

-there's further evidence of the latter, where I'm seeing big crowds on the nearby paved trail, which for weeks had been a reliable place to get out for a walk/ride... nearly all the masks have disappeared overnight, non-distanced groups seemingly re-formed right after the Gov's announcement, and it basically feels borderline unsafe to us (as still-concerned weirdos)

[CrimsonFox]

OMG we are so screwed

[thesloppy]

Scott Pasmore on Twitter: "No covid concerns at the lake of the ozarks😳 #loto… "

[QuikSand]

Yeah, on the back end of this switch seems to be an implied chain of custody where the message just gets semi-deliberately lost. "Re open, but with appropriate safety, spacing, and coverage standards" and then the government washes its hands, the business puts up its sign telling the patrons to follow the rules and washes its hands, and then the customers pile in, ignore everything, and presumably don't even wash their hands. Pols get good polls, biz gets its money, customers get their transmissions, Darwin gets his way.

[Lathum]

We really are fucked as a nation

No covid concerns at the lake of the ozarks�� #loto pic.twitter.com/Yrb4UNM64u

— Scott Pasmore (@scottpasmoretv) May 24, 2020

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Lathum

We really are fucked as a species

fixed that for ya.

[Edward64]

I was at Home Depot this morning. Not a lot of people but was disappointed to see 2 adults without masks and a mother (with mask) but kid sitting in the cart without a mask.

All for opening up but com'on, how hard is it to practice social distancing and wearing a damn mask for a little while longer.

Guess I shouldn't complain, no neighborhood pool parties that's been reported so far.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

you mean events like partying on florida beaches or attending superchurches or going for a drink in a crowded bar or attending a protest with guns?
Yeah it sure feels like you're right. Go figure

Let's toss in jewish funerals, block parties in NY or birthday party in CA.

But yeah, how freaking hard is it to do this gradually.

[tarcone]

A hairstylist in Springfield, MO saw 84 clients from May 12 to May 20. Now is sick with Covid. And a co-worker of the stylist, who saw 54 clients, has tested positive. Both saw their clients when symptomatic.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I actually counted on Saturday, cause I knew what my general impression of the mask ratio was from the past week but I wanted to see how a legit count of what I saw would match up.

I had to make three stops: gas & smokes, then two in-store orders for takeaway food. My counting rule was "people in cars don't count, only those I see having a personal interaction of some sort"

At the end of the sequence I saw 2 masks on 19 people, one of those people was clearly over 65. That was almost eerily spot on to the "less than 10% of those under 60" comment I'd made on Facebook a day or two before.

Now, as much as I love being right like that, I will add a footnote. Moments after I mentally closed the book on counting (got in my car to leave the last restaurant) I did a family of 3 (mom & two teen daughters) heading toward the door, all masked, which would have kicked it up to 5/22 total. (or 4/21 under 60)

It's not a situation where people have suddenly stopped wearing them here, those numbers are very consistent with what I've seen throughout the entire scenario.

I'll also note that there seems to be a very significant amount of location-by-location to it. My kid noted that it was roughly 50/50 when he ended up spending some time at a major Atlanta shopping mall last week (Lenox, for those who know the area), though he didn't have a take on the age variable. Still, that mall doesn't do the older traffic it might have years ago so I'd say the percentage wouldn't change much if you eliminated 60+.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I actually counted on Saturday, cause I knew what my general impression of the mask ratio was from the past week but I wanted to see how a legit count of what I saw would match up.

I had to make three stops: gas & smokes, then two in-store orders for takeaway food. My counting rule was "people in cars don't count, only those I see having a personal interaction of some sort"

At the end of the sequence I saw 2 masks on 19 people, one of those people was clearly over 65. That was almost eerily spot on to the "less than 10% of those under 60" comment I'd made on Facebook a day or two before.

Now, as much as I love being right like that, I will add a footnote. Moments after I mentally closed the book on counting (got in my car to leave the last restaurant) I did a family of 3 (mom & two teen daughters) heading toward the door, all masked, which would have kicked it up to 5/22 total. (or 4/21 under 60)

It's not a situation where people have suddenly stopped wearing them here, those numbers are very consistent with what I've seen throughout the entire scenario.

I'll also note that there seems to be a very significant amount of location-by-location to it. My kid noted that it was roughly 50/50 when he ended up spending some time at a major Atlanta shopping mall last week (Lenox, for those who know the area), though he didn't have a take on the age variable. Still, that mall doesn't do the older traffic it might have years ago so I'd say the percentage wouldn't change much if you eliminated 60+.

Interesting difference. I'm in northern Atlanta suburbia and the majority of people are wearing masks when I've gone out grocery shopping, Home Depot, restaurant pickups and mall/haircut. Maybe its just the Athens college-town environment?

[sterlingice]

On Friday, we drove to a "less popular" beach (Surfside) that's about an hour south of Houston instead of going towards Galveston because we knew it would be a train wreck. However, even the two small beaches there were pretty packed. We lucked into finding a small, empty park restroom and then we headed up the coast. There's a state highway between Surfside or Galveston that's a nice hour long drive and we drove about 15 minutes before we found a nice spot on the beach. Our car had at least 50 feet either direction from the next one on the beach and that was as close as anyone got to us so we got to enjoy about 45 minutes of beach time before heading back.

Thoughts:
* Restrooms are a huge travel logistics problem. It's a tight, enclosed space and very few people in Texas wear masks so it would be a great place to build up a huge viral load and spread the virus.
* I figured Galveston would be packed but to see 50+ cars at both of the small Surfside beaches at 11am on Friday, before the holiday even started, probably does not bode well for the rest of this weekend.
* Texans can be counted on to always take the path of least resistance so it was fairly easy to find a safe beach to get to just by driving an extra 10 or 15 minutes.
* It was really relaxing to go somewhere and go through the motions of a little road trip, even if it just consisted of driving for a while, eating nuts and beef jerky, arguing with the 4 year old over what music to listen to (not "wheels on the bus" - like he wanted to listen to Sammy Hagar and we were listening to Tom Petty and being a little snot about it just gets "The Waiting" played for him), and the other little rituals that feel "normal". And that's even if all we got was about 45 minutes on a beach.
* However, one of the things I observed very early on in the pandemic and still holds true: it takes so much more energy to pretend things are normal.

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

We really are fucked as a nation

No covid concerns at the lake of the ozarks�� #loto pic.twitter.com/Yrb4UNM64u

— Scott Pasmore (@scottpasmoretv) May 24, 2020

Nothing like taking your boat out on a lake so you can pull up to a pool and go swimming there!

[whomario]

Unless you are talking stadium stuff (close proximity long Term + shouting, singing etc) i think most things outdoor OR short term indoor is pretty safe and not a big problem in the larger picture.

Indoor gatherings however ... Over 100 infected originating from a single church service in Germany (directly or then them infecting others ), 11 from a Restaurant although that was ignoring safety protocols for a private event.

Still,certain things just are very high risk and going to be worse the more people are infected because the odds for those to go to high risk places just increase.

[Ryche]

You would hope all these petrie dishes will generate some solid knowledge just how this spreads. I suspect who whomario is right

[Brian Swartz]

YODO

[panerd]

Stole this from twitter but Tarcone, Mizzourah, and other locals will appreciate.

Watching the rest of America discover the non Jason Bateman reality of the Lake of the Ozarks has been an experience.

While the rest of the country is shocked we just wonder what else did anyone expect was really going to happen there this weekend?

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by panerd

Stole this from twitter but Tarcone, Mizzourah, and other locals will appreciate.

Watching the rest of America discover the non Jason Bateman reality of the Lake of the Ozarks has been an experience.

While the rest of the country is shocked we just wonder what else did anyone expect was really going to happen there this weekend?

PARTY COVE

[tarcone]

And to riff og Jon, I looked today at Wal-mart when grocery shopping. By the way, Wal-mart REQUIRES you to wear a mask, unless you are spending money.
Anyway, It looked like to me it was mostly obese and old people not wearing masks. Some families. But not many.

So studies show the elderly and obese are most likely to get this and die. Yet they(obese, not fat shaming) continue to make poor life choices.

Yeah, maybe this is darwinism at its best.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tarcone

PARTY COVE

Party Cov-id

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Party Cov-id

This is why I wish this forum had likes.

[whomario]

"When we walked up my first words were 'oh my gosh' it was intense for sure!! Social distancing was nonexistent. However everyone was enjoying themselves. It was a very carefree environment but security was heavy!!"

(CNN article quoting a visitor from that weird pool thingy

I mean, you can't really fault anyone here, they were enjoying themselves and ain't that enough ?

[thesloppy]

Nothing is more repulsive to my particular anxieties than the various boat/water/lake parties....and that's before even considering the covid. Just a thousand slack-jawed randos aggressively drinking at each other, as a distant, too-weak speaker bounces shitty EDM off of the water, with absolutely no place to hide.

[albionmoonlight]

Just seems like the worst of all worlds.

Not doing a ton to keep economic activity in town alive.
But also likely to spark a second wave.

[JPhillips]

Good to see some high profile Republicans urging people to wear masks. Some people are starting to realize masks are effective and will be key to making reopening effective. It will only matter so much as long as Trump is too manly to wear a mask in public, but every little thing helps.

[RainMaker]

Exclusive: Husband of Reopen NC leader ‘willing to kill people’ in resistance to emergency orders | Raw Story

[RainMaker]

Everyone here wears masks in stores. In fact it seems like some people are making fashion statements out of it. Seen some creative stuff from sports teams to flags. I like rocking the bandana like an old train robber.

Maybe weather plays a role in this too. We had a cold March and April so it wasn't a big deal to throw on a gaiter. Will be interesting to see if people wear them on a hot and humid 90 degree day.

[PilotMan]

Was out for the first time in a couple weeks to Kroger. It was shocking to see just how fast people reverted to old habits. Maybe 20% (like Jon mentioned) wearing masks, probably less. Demographic didn't matter. I was at Fresh Thyme last week and most customers there were still wearing them. Some people weren't even trying. Many who were, were wearing them wrong. I watched an employee finish a shift and take his mask off right then and there.

One of the things that we talk about in my profession is deviation from the norm. Maintaining standards for procedures and operations is critical for safety and efficiency. Very small, subtle changes on a daily basis, a short cut here, a short cut there, and over time that maybe becomes the norm. It can be very insidious, because it's hard to maintain by the book standards if there is a culture where such things are accepted. This is relevant here because we're seeing something like masks and distancing as something that is very different from our normal standards, and very easy to see how it can slide away from the hard things that we're trying to do. And in this case, there's nobody there to enforce those standards.

It's over really. Expectations will only continue to slide from here.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm with RainMaker on my observations. Today was in the 80s and humid, 90% roughly of people still wearing masks. Local Meijer has a table set up at both entrances offering them to people as they come in as additional encouragement. It's not enforced, but most people don't just walk on by and refuse them. It's interesting because this is an area you'd expect to go away from that sooner than most (rural, conservative, etc.) Sounds like it's varying widely based on location. Even the people buying 200 pounds of charcoal briquets are still wearing.

[PilotMan]

Suburban NKY just don't give a shit anymore.

[RainMaker]

Saw someone in a light up mask which I think was meant to be a Mortal Kombat character.

[JPhillips]

Distance and masking are good here, but I think that's to be expected when the county has had over 10k cases, and as you go south things get dramatically worse. There aren't too many people here that don't know someone that was seriously ill or died. It's a shame that so much of the rest of the country can't learn the risks from the NYC area.

[Ben E Lou]

Ugh. Our latest church small group meeting (still via Zoom) was last night. My friend the pulmonologist has taken a position of some hospital-level leadership regarding COVID-19. He said that cases have *tripled* in our local COVID19 hospital, and out of frustration and tiredness, he REALLY vented tonight. Understand that he is from Alabama and has always identified as politically conservative. Our group is not politically homogeneous and politics doesn't really come up, but he went OFF on Trump's church order. (I mean, really...1.5 to 4 hours in a confined space with singing? It's one of the worst possible places to be...) But more than that, I've never seen him as harsh in his frustration with and criticism of the masses. He's usually quite measured, but he used the words "stupid" and "foolish" a half dozen times or more. I think the comment that saddened me the most is that he said something like "I had to order more ventilators this week, and when I look at TV or the internet, it seems like I'm wasting my time, because nobody out there cares."

Meanwhile, this happened in the next county over, just 20 miles from his hospital, this weekend, after the local sheriff refused to enforce the governor's limit for outdoor gatherings. My friend may get to meet some of these folks under not-so-good circumstances...

https://t.co/8yVdGbQMxy Thousands of people packed into Ace Speedway in North Carolina Saturday ... and it's a vision of coronavirus.

— TMZ Sports (@TMZ_Sports) May 24, 2020

[miked]

If there is anything more representative of our country's stupidity when it comes to this, it's thousands of rednecks risking spread to watch cars drive in a circle.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miked

If there is anything more representative of our country's stupidity when it comes to this, it's thousands of rednecks risking spread to watch cars drive in a circle.

Article says 4000 people in attendance. These morons love to throw around the low mortality rate.

I wonder what the reaction would be if the track announcer came on the PA and said "thanks for coming, 40-80 of you could be dead in a few weeks, at least a couple of you assuredly will be, and about 1,000-1,500 of you will be pretty sick. Oh, and many of you will go on to infect loved ones, now rise for the national anthem."