COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[miked]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Updated CNN graph on how individual states are doing in flattening the curve. I know there is good discussion on how valid the statistics are but its the best we have right now (I think).

GA seems to be doing okay. GA has been re-opening up for the past 3 weeks or so the people are doing something right. Is there a graphic somewhere that compares the metro areas?

Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US

Georgia's numbers are mostly false. The hospitalizations are going down slightly (I work there), but the numbers are false. They are counting antibody tests as COVID tests (which are always negative for COVID) and moving the test date days after the tests for silly reasons.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think the two biggest things were testing - and that's something no government got right (or knew to even prepare for, to be fair) and wearing masks. We can have the most buttoned up state/federal system for this with tons of PPE, early warnings from other countries, shelter in place, travel bans, etc. But the biggest issue we had from March on was people not knowing/caring they were carrying the virus and giving it to a bunch of different people.

There are people that just don't give a F*ck and that's why we will always have some propagation of the virus. There are 20-year old kids that went to Mardi Gras and then, without a mask, stood by a 75-year old woman in walgreens. There are people who rushed to beaches in Florida without masks and then visited their parents. Here in AZ, I have a friend who works in the Casino (with a mask) and he said he saw over 100 60+ year old people enter just yesterday without a mask. You can have all the plans you want - but these situations are what take it down. So, the focus needs to be on really educating people on using masks (if not mandating it in certain places) and be able to ramp up test production quickly moving forward. People are going to not listen and be idiots, but if we can test them on a bigger scale - the kids that get Covid at Mardi Gras can know and atleast avoid their grandparents for 14 days.Those are the lessons I hope we learn from this.

Well when the president says it's a hoax, how are citizens to take it seriously?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I can't accept the idea that no plan and poor response is just as effective as a good plan and good response. Any of the past four Presidents would have done a much better job with planning and response and, yes, that would have saved lives.

It's also important to look at us right now. We're still confirming 15 thousand cases a day. Spain has been under 1 thousand for 9 of the past 10 days. Italy has been below 1 thousand for 15 days.

We're also testing 300K a day. I think Spain has pretty much stopped significant testing. If we stopped testing, we would stop seeing new cases too. The more you test, the more cases you will find:

Total COVID-19 tests - Our World in Data

[JPhillips]

According to the data I could find, these are numbers from 5/27.

Tests per thousand people:

USA - 45.04
Spain - 47.51
Italy - 59.66

edit: The data for yesterday doesn't include Spain, but Italy was over 100 tests per confirmed case while the US was at 17.59.

[Coffee Warlord]

Spain and Italy also have about 1/5th of the population each in land masses smaller than several single states.

[IlliniCub]

I think a large part of the problem is that people have migrated to one of two extremes in their line of thinking about this. Either that it's a hoax and we should do nothing, or that we should never leave our houses again. In my opinion as other countries have demonstrated, there's a workable middle ground here. Both sides need to give in a bit, leave politics out of it and just follow science and reason. We don't need to lock down to a large extent maybe, if we also follow social distancing procedures to an extent in public. In America right now on any issue it seems too many people migrate to extreme positions on any issue, and ignore the middle ground.

[Arles]

My point was about the reduction in cases. Places like Italy and Spain have seriously slowed down on testing (which is going to cause a pretty big reduction in new cases).

Italy has done 300,000 tests in the past 7 days and Spain has done even less. The US has done 3.3 million. So when I see this:

We're still confirming 15 thousand cases a day. Spain has been under 1 thousand for 9 of the past 10 days. Italy has been below 1 thousand for 15 days.

A lot of that has to do with how much testing you are doing. If we dropped to 30-40K tests a day, there's a chance we'd be in the 800-1,500 range, but I wouldn't feel any better.

[JPhillips]

If the number of tests per thousand is roughly equal and the number of tests per positive is way different, that doesn't say that the difference is just population.

[RainMaker]

Italy has mostly gotten the virus under control outside of Lombardy. Likely the reason they don't need to test as much anymore. Same with Spain.

Germany was crushing everyone in testing but is slowing down because they have gotten the virus under control too.

Testing can be a misleading stat at times. If you don't have sick people, you don't need to test as much.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I think a large part of the problem is that people have migrated to one of two extremes in their line of thinking about this. Either that it's a hoax and we should do nothing, or that we should never leave our houses again. In my opinion as other countries have demonstrated, there's a workable middle ground here. Both sides need to give in a bit, leave politics out of it and just follow science and reason. We don't need to lock down to a large extent maybe, if we also follow social distancing procedures to an extent in public. In America right now on any issue it seems too many people migrate to extreme positions on any issue, and ignore the middle ground.

Come on. Basically nobody is saying never leave our houses, and to be fair the polling suggests the number of hoaxers is small, too. Most people(60-70% depending on the poll) say they want to reopen with an eye towards safety.

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Come on. Basically nobody is saying never leave our houses, and to be fair the polling suggests the number of hoaxers is small, too. Most people(60-70% depending on the poll) say they want to reopen with an eye towards safety.

And That's how I feel as well. I guess let me clarify as I was being a bit hyperbolic, the narrative is being pushed to play two sides against each other in my area. One side says open with 0 restrictions, my liberty and all that. They characterize the other as saying we should never go out. The reality is more middle grounded. I happen to fall into the category of re-open safely and take precautions to minimize infections. In my own area people have kind of gravitated towards extremes and it's getting pretty nasty. The most concerning thing I'm seeing is that those who believe in Science and reason are being vilified within my community.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Come on. Basically nobody is saying never leave our houses, and to be fair the polling suggests the number of hoaxers is small, too. Most people(60-70% depending on the poll) say they want to reopen with an eye towards safety.

Yeah I don't see anyone saying don't leave your house unless you are highly vulnerable. For the most part it's keep some social distancing and wear a mask and we're all good.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Arles

We're also testing 300K a day. I think Spain has pretty much stopped significant testing. If we stopped testing, we would stop seeing new cases too. The more you test, the more cases you will find:

Total COVID-19 tests - Our World in Data

Originally Posted by Arles

My point was about the reduction in cases. Places like Italy and Spain have seriously slowed down on testing (which is going to cause a pretty big reduction in new cases).

Sorry to be blunt, but that is just not true. The US doing more now ? Yes. Spain or Italy not increasing as much now anymore ? Obviously. But doing less or "pretty much stopped significant testing" is simply false.

Italy is doing roughly 60-70k tests every day recently with the average per day going up if anything, was about 50ish 2-3 weeks ago and 30k in early April.

COVID-19 pandemic in Italy - Wikipedia

(Statistics >> dails covid cases by region >> far right on the table is total tests). And yes, they use the numbers straight from the italian health ministry.

Spain release that number weekly, next should come tomorrow but here are the last 3 weeks

15-21st May = 302k
8-14 = 294k
1st to 7th = 274k

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa.do (press notes from 9th, 16th, 23rd, PDF at bottom of each)

They did nowhere near that in March or April

[whomario]

Quick note on Worldometer:

they fuck up a lot when taking data from non-english language sources. Sometimes they take PCR + Antibody tests, sometimes they mix up critical condidition by adding Ventilated patients to ICU (so "3000 ICU, of which 2000 ventilated" becomes 5000) and for France the active cases are bogus because the french don't keep track of recoveries outside hospitals. So Worldometer takes total cases, subtracts hospital discharges and deaths. Which leaves some 60k that never got admitted to a hospital in the first place.

Cases and deaths usually line up, everything else is grain of salt territory when countries don't release english language information.

[Arles]

My answer was in response to the idea that Italy and Spain are around 1,000 new cases a day and the US is at 15,000. The US is running close to 400K tests a day (which is about a week of Spain or Italy). Clearly Italy and Spain are seeing fewer cases (and running fewer tests), but it's not like they are at 1K and we are at 15K doing the same number of tests.

The current setup in the US is very regional. About 1/4 of the new cases and about 40% of the daily deaths are in the NE. You have a small pocket in Chicago that is still hot, but the rest of the US seems OK. Even places like Texas and California that are getting more cases (because of ramped up testing) have fairly small death numbers. 70% of the states have less than 200 deaths per million population. That's better than nearly every European country than Germany and on par with Canada. So, we are in an interesting time of much of the south, midwest and west being somewhat "safe" to move around in while we have hotspots in the NE and places like Chicago and Pittsburgh. It's an odd situation to be in as a country. What we need is to really social distance in these hotter areas over the next two months.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Arles

My answer was in response to the idea that Italy and Spain are around 1,000 new cases a day and the US is at 15,000. The US is running close to 400K tests a day (which is about a week of Spain or Italy). Clearly Italy and Spain are seeing fewer cases (and running fewer tests), but it's not like they are at 1K and we are at 15K doing the same number of tests.

The current setup in the US is very regional. About 1/4 of the new cases and about 40% of the daily deaths are in the NE. You have a small pocket in Chicago that is still hot, but the rest of the US seems OK. Even places like Texas and California that are getting more cases (because of ramped up testing) have fairly small death numbers. 70% of the states have less than 200 deaths per million population. That's better than nearly every European country than Germany and on par with Canada. So, we are in an interesting time of much of the south, midwest and west being somewhat "safe" to move around in while we have hotspots in the NE and places like Chicago and Pittsburgh. It's an odd situation to be in as a country. What we need is to really social distance in these hotter areas over the next two months.

Pittsburgh has been good. Philadelphia on the other hand is a hot spot.

[Edward64]

People's opinions on risks. See nice graphic in link.

https://www.politico.com/interactive...-is-safe-poll/

Americans are more likely to view activities as risky than experts: In eight of 11 scenarios, poll respondents gave a higher risk rating than the expert panel.

There’s a big gap between Democrats and Republicans. On average, Republican respondents rated activities’ risk more than a point lower than Democrats. We saw a similar pattern between men and women, with men finding most activities less risky.

Some questions had a wide range of responses, even among experts. Some scenarios were cut-and-dried — nearly everyone agrees it’s quite risky to go to a baseball game in a stadium, for instance.

[whomario]

You literally said they find that much less than before mostly because they test less than before, because they seriously slowed down or almost stopped testing.
That does not invalidate your Points about the US, but it also absolutely false. They look harder and find less, so to speak.

And the european countries have those same few pockets with large parts of the country virtually case free despite testing every contact and doing series-testing in homes or even stuff like postal facilities or meat plants.
Be telling what happens when travel picks up now.

[NobodyHere]

WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

Follow the Science?

[stevew]

Did you even read that?

[sterlingice]

Seriously? Now the world, God, simulation, bad timeline, or whatever is just fucking with us

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2351KV

Headline: "Monkeys steal coronavirus blood samples in India"


SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Seriously? Now the world, God, simulation, bad timeline, or whatever is just fucking with us

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2351KV

Headline: "Monkeys steal coronavirus blood samples in India"

SI

Wasn't this the first scene of one of the newer Planet of the Apes movies?

I assume COVID makes monkeys super-smart and vicious and gives them the ability to enslave us.

Ah well, we had a good run.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Wasn't this the first scene of one of the newer Planet of the Apes movies?

I assume COVID makes monkeys super-smart and vicious and gives them the ability to enslave us.

Ah well, we had a good run.

Well at least we left them climate change to deal with

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well at least we left them climate change to deal with

Dr Zaius already solved it!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Dr Zaius already solved it!

Because I can never resist posting this:

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Because I can never resist posting this:

I’ve always loved the line ‘From ChimpanA to ChimpanZ’. Genius

Edit: although after watching the clip that’s obviously from a different clip

[NobodyHere]

The clip I posted is an edited version of the show focused on the Dr Zaius song.

Here's a clip with the line you love. (As do I)

[AlexB]

That’s reassuring, I’m ‘self-medicating’ after burning my hand earlier, and was slightly confused without the extended clip!

[stevew]

Any word on when Wal Mart is planning on moving back towards a more normal operating schedule. Stores closing at 8:30 really leads to a time crunch.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

Any word on when Wal Mart is planning on moving back towards a more normal operating schedule. Stores closing at 8:30 really leads to a time crunch.

Their operating schedule - and inability to manage pickup or delivery for most of the past couple months - here has pretty much taken them out of my routine entirely. I have my doubts it'll ever return in any serious way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Saw something tonight I hadn't seen previously: a restaurant that couldn't quite get the alternate seating thing figured out.

Booths - table row - booths, a pretty standard set up. Everywhere I've seen before handles that the same way: think of it as "odd-numbered" booths in use, with tables in use on the "even-numbered" spaces (i.e. next to the unused booths)

Not this one, nope. They used the odd numbers on all three, skipping the evens on all three.

Not sure if that was to get them an extra table in each section or if it was simply not quite grasping the concept (they only reopened in the past few days, so it's still pretty new to them in practice)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by stevew

Any word on when Wal Mart is planning on moving back towards a more normal operating schedule. Stores closing at 8:30 really leads to a time crunch.

And not opening until 7 sucks donkey balls. Especially since Sams is screwing its Plus members, too. (I can usually get in at 7. Now I have to wait until 9.)

[tarcone]

Welp, one of the participants of the shit how Lake of the Ozarks party has tested positive for covid 19

Let the 2nd wave begin.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Their operating schedule - and inability to manage pickup or delivery for most of the past couple months - here has pretty much taken them out of my routine entirely. I have my doubts it'll ever return in any serious way.

We've had very good luck with our pick-up orders at Wal-Mart, and I normally hate going to Wal-Mart.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

And not opening until 7 sucks donkey balls. Especially since Sams is screwing its Plus members, too. (I can usually get in at 7. Now I have to wait until 9.)

Even DG closing at 9pm instead of 10 is majorly cramping my style.

[Edward64]

Do we really want to encourage these retail stores to open earlier than 7am and close later than 8:30pm? I think the Europeans have it right where their stores have reasonable hours so their employees can have semi-normal working hours.

If you need to get a six-pack or baby formula or milk, plan better. Honestly, first world / North America problems.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Welp, one of the participants of the shit how Lake of the Ozarks party has tested positive for covid 19

Let the 2nd wave begin.

Oh, that is not good.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We've had very good luck with our pick-up orders at Wal-Mart, and I normally hate going to Wal-Mart.

We've had to deal with it periodically due to my 91 y/o mother-in-law's inability to grasp that Walmart is not the only place on the planet that stocks grocery items. WM is her ride-or-die.

The average lead time required for pickup here has been 2-3 full days, with some occasions having no available delivery in a 7-day window.

No other store in the area comes close to that (and I'm pretty sure we've done delivery from virtually every chain here at some point).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Do we really want to encourage these retail stores to open earlier than 7am and close later than 8:30pm?

Absolutely.

It's a 24 hour world, and I expect retailers to live in that if they'd like to remain relevant and competitive. My patronage is significantly dependent on how convenient you make the opportunity for me to give you money. If it's not to my liking, I'll increasingly skip your store and have Amazon (et al) deliver it and they can largely rot afaic.

[ISiddiqui]

Not to mention plenty of people work hours that 7am-7pm for any shopping just won't work for them (think of people who work 12 hour shifts at hospitals).

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Not to mention plenty of people work hours that 7am-7pm for any shopping just won't work for them (think of people who work 12 hour shifts at hospitals).

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

My SIL is a nurse and yes she does work long shifts but she works 3 or 4 days a week.

I get the convenience factor (and I certainly benefit from it) but do we really need my local grocery store, Waffle House etc. to be 24 x 7?

Rhetorical question - is the additional $X in sales/revenue really worth the cost of collective employees' family life? Majority of Europe and majority of Asia seem to do okay without the 24 x 7.

[rjolley]

What I don't understand about the stores that offer pickup is why aren't all items available for pickup, especially cleaning products? Are they that desperate for foot traffic that they can't make those items available?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Rhetorical question - is the additional $X in sales/revenue really worth the cost of collective employees' family life?

If a demand didn't exist, neither would the hours.

And even in a small "city", one of the busiest sandwich shops is in Athens is the one located across from our largest (of two) hospitals. They have a literal lunch rush at around 3a daily. Wanna tell them they shouldn't be open? Or if that's fine, then wanna tell their competition (basically 3-4 fast food places nearby) they shouldn't be too?

Or all the places that serve patrons & employees (definitely goes back to the WH example) in a town that has night life til 2a roughly 6 days a week for nine months of the year?

Reality: those folks you're talking about are likely unemployed if those 3rd shift jobs don't exist, because most of that commerce doesn't time shift, it ceases to exist entirely.

I haven't bought groceries in daylight hours regularly in about a couple of decades now. That's what suits me best, so that's what I do.


Certainly given the new competitive landscape that exists, shortened hours means I'd just shift the vast majority of my buying over to an Amazon-like operation, because my animosity toward the other options that chose not to serve my needs would be intense, I'd actively be hoping they crashed & burned (much the way my feelings have been leaning toward WM being the most limited hours operation in the area now)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by rjolley

What I don't understand about the stores that offer pickup is why aren't all items available for pickup, especially cleaning products? Are they that desperate for foot traffic that they can't make those items available?

Among the many factors to consider about foot traffic is the significant amount of revenue that all big box stores generate from "shelf allotments" or "slotting" and from display positions (endcaps, etc). Reduce the value of those and you're looking at noticeable price increases on the shelves sooner or later. And those negotiations are already tough at best, only going to get tougher as vendors start to wonder how much extortion is too much.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Among the many factors to consider about foot traffic is the significant amount of revenue that all big box stores generate from "shelf allotments" or "slotting" and from display positions (endcaps, etc). Reduce the value of those and you're looking at noticeable price increases on the shelves sooner or later. And those negotiations are already tough at best, only going to get tougher as vendors start to wonder how much extortion is too much.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks for the info.

[stevew]

Also it’s not the fucking 1980s so the world closed at 9pm is highly unrealistic.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by rjolley

Ah, makes sense. Thanks for the info.

To my knowledge (and I did work tangentally to this for several years) at this point there's nothing aside from store brands inside a big box retailer that hasn't written a check to be there, a point that was reached probably around 10 years ago. Every inch of space is monetized.

And then that space is leveraged against the manufacturers. Ever notice how the space allotted to, say, Frito-Lay brands vs store brands vs 3rd party brands fluctuates? That's a function of money changing hands, not of consumer preference.

And when the range for manufacturers goes from about 15% of their total sales to 80% of their total sales (probably higher for some niche products) being directly related to Walmart, not paying what amounts to extortion is a hard option to consider. It's one of the reasons that certain brands only appear in one big box vs multiple big boxes, they can't bite off on the up front payment needed to get slotted into more than one.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think the Europeans have it right where their stores have reasonable hours so their employees can have semi-normal working hours.

I'm with Jon on this one. It's been a number of decades since 'nine to five' had any significant relevance. I don't think normal working hours actually means anything anymore.

[CrimsonFox]

stumble out of bed and crawl to the kitchen
pour myself a cup of ambition

[henry296]

Originally Posted by rjolley

What I don't understand about the stores that offer pickup is why aren't all items available for pickup, especially cleaning products? Are they that desperate for foot traffic that they can't make those items available?

Foot traffic leads to impulse buys and more revenue.

Retailers will limit what can be picked up based on available inventory. They want to avoid it being out of stock when they go pick your order because somebody else walked in and bought so there is a minimum amount of inventory required to make it available. Given high demand for those items that minimum may be higher now than it is in normal times.