2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 99

Brian Swartz · 10-22-2020, 11:59 AM

Dunno about Pennyslvania as much, but the GOP got crushed in the '18 midterms in Michigan, Whitmer is very popular, etc. The political atmosphere is nothing like it was in '16. There's a loud minority there is very upset, partly about the fact that they're a minority, but right now I think Biden wins the state by 5-7 points. And that's probably conservative.

Brian Swartz · 10-22-2020, 12:02 PM

Also, excellent post molson. I thought a year ago Trump's chances were about 5%. They're probably going to be slightly higher than that, about 5-10%, and that's not nothing - he could win. It isn't over. But the most likely scenario still seems to be rivaling Obama-McCain for the most one-sided election since the 80s, and it's just as likely to be far worse than that as it is for Trump to win.

CrimsonFox · 10-22-2020, 12:04 PM

Here in Hamilton County... Cincy
So far early voting and returned absentee ballots by party

Getting 18865 Dem
6727 Rep

This says nothing of who they actually voted for

I've seen lots of Biden signs around here where there were no clinton signs 4 years ago
So probably guess at least 1000 reps will vote biden maybe?

Ben E Lou · 10-22-2020, 12:18 PM

Wow....

Trailer park tenants say landlord's letter is voter intimidation | 9news.com

Jas_lov · 10-22-2020, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Here in Hamilton County... Cincy
So far early voting and returned absentee ballots by party

Getting 18865 Dem
6727 Rep

This says nothing of who they actually voted for

I've seen lots of Biden signs around here where there were no clinton signs 4 years ago
So probably guess at least 1000 reps will vote biden maybe?

Where did you get the voting numbers by party in Ohio? I've been watching the election project website and it only give it by county.

CrimsonFox · 10-22-2020, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Where did you get the voting numbers by party in Ohio? I've been watching the election project website and it only give it by county.

hamilton county board of elections site

Absentee & Early Voting Lists - Hamilton County Board of Elections

Butter · 10-22-2020, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

where do you get this thought

Which one

Butter · 10-22-2020, 12:52 PM

People have said for years that massive turnout favors Democrats. I guess we're going to see that put into action, or not.

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Wow....

Trailer park tenants say landlord's letter is voter intimidation | 9news.com

I hope they arrest and heavily fine whomever is responsible.

Reads to me more like they know Biden is likely to win and are looking to price gouge people under that pretense.

henry296 · 10-22-2020, 02:24 PM

It reads really similar to the one Trump ad that essential says Biden will raise your taxes and prices for everything will go up including gas and groceries.

sabotai · 10-22-2020, 02:50 PM

"ALOT"

bronconick · 10-22-2020, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter

People have said for years that massive turnout favors Democrats. I guess we're going to see that put into action, or not.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

Edward64 · 10-22-2020, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

In 2016, 61.4% voted.

2018 Eligible voters is 233,675,000. So 154 / 233 = approx 66%.

Still not great IMO.

sterlingice · 10-22-2020, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabotai

"ALOT"

Always with ALOT, I think of Hyperbole and a Half: The Alot is Better Than You at Everything

SI

stevew · 10-22-2020, 04:07 PM

My HS English teacher always said ALOT doesn't exist and "a lot" is where you park cars.

GrantDawg · 10-22-2020, 04:10 PM

I am still nervous about Pennsylvania, and I won't believe Biden won Florida until it is actually certified.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

ISiddiqui · 10-22-2020, 04:17 PM

If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania the election is lost. That being said, the polls in PA look pretty good so far.

cuervo72 · 10-22-2020, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Always with ALOT, I think of Hyperbole and a Half: The Alot is Better Than You at Everything

SI

Yes, I considered finding it and posting it.

PilotMan · 10-22-2020, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania the election is lost. That being said, the polls in PA look pretty good so far.

That was the bellwether for Clinton too. Then once FL dumped I was like 'oh fuck'.

JPhillips · 10-22-2020, 04:53 PM

Biden could lose PA, but win AZ and come out with a 270-268 EC win. He'd have to win WI and MI in that scenario.

ISiddiqui · 10-22-2020, 04:54 PM

Arizona is closer than PA in polling however. If he loses PA, it would be difficult for him to win Florida or Arizona.

JPhillips · 10-22-2020, 06:19 PM

Yeah. I think the most likely outcome is a big Biden win with a narrow Trump win probably more likely than a narrow Biden win.

sterlingice · 10-22-2020, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I am still nervous about Pennsylvania, and I won't believe Biden won Florida until it is actually certified.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This and this

SI

tarcone · 10-22-2020, 07:12 PM

Interesting watching the evolution of this thread. A couple weeks ago it was Biden is going to dominate. Now it is Biden must win PA or its over.

Trump is like Covid, he is underestimated and wont go away.

cuervo72 · 10-22-2020, 07:21 PM

Well, because after 2016, those who are against Trump feel snakebit. It's like how I watch sports these days -- I always expect the worst.

Here's a view from someone who does not feel that way (not being a Democrat).

A Message to Democrats from Your New Ally - The Bulwark

albionmoonlight · 10-22-2020, 07:28 PM

I feel snakebit because at no point in 2016 did I think he could win.

Maybe I should not have been overconfident, but I was.

So I am majorly overcorrecting.

Also, having to win vs. having to win by such a huge amount that the Supreme Court can't steal the election are two different tasks. You can be confident of the first and worried about the second.

CrimsonFox · 10-22-2020, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

hamilton county board of elections site

Absentee & Early Voting Lists - Hamilton County Board of Elections

however I've been told the numbers are much higher because I've been requesting the wrong date range

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:07 PM

lol. First question and Trump already isn't answering.

JPhillips · 10-22-2020, 08:12 PM

Trump has been far more disciplined for the first question.

Edward64 · 10-22-2020, 08:13 PM

Good to see Trump behaving so far.

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good to see Trump behaving so far.

yes. He is lying in a much calmer manner.

JPhillips · 10-22-2020, 08:17 PM

Already starting to crack, though. I don't think he'll be able to keep it together all night.

Atocep · 10-22-2020, 08:20 PM

I don't know who advises Trump on his covid debate strategy but he keeps digging in on losing arguments.

Galaril · 10-22-2020, 08:21 PM

Trump must be drugged with something to keep him calm.

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:21 PM

"all those teachers, not many of you are going to die"

lol

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Already starting to crack, though. I don't think he'll be able to keep it together all night.

yeah, visibly getting agitated.

Butter · 10-22-2020, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't know who advises Trump on his covid debate strategy but he keeps digging in on losing arguments.

This is the hallmark of the extreme narcissist

JPhillips · 10-22-2020, 08:25 PM

Joe has massive Come On energy tonight.

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:25 PM

and there it is...

Jas_lov · 10-22-2020, 08:25 PM

Trump is definitely more subdued. They must have given him a tranquilizer.

Atocep · 10-22-2020, 08:27 PM

Trump is cracking. Good start, comparatively speaking, but bragging about breaking the law isn't how you wrap up a topic.

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:28 PM

I love the Biden bought up the NY Post/ Rudy stuff proactively.

sovereignstar v2 · 10-22-2020, 08:30 PM

Nobody is tougher on Russia than Donny.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Atocep · 10-22-2020, 08:31 PM

Does anyone outside Trump's base believe no one is tougher on Russia?

Lathum · 10-22-2020, 08:32 PM

Trump claiming he prepaid his taxes, should be easy to verify.

Jas_lov · 10-22-2020, 08:33 PM

Ok Trump is starting to go off the rails.

NobodyHere · 10-22-2020, 08:34 PM

I listened to Trump for nearly 20 seconds, but I'm not drunk enough to withstand it.

What is your guys/gals secret to your resilience to actually watch this thing?

Galaril · 10-22-2020, 08:37 PM

Biden has done really well and has really taken it to Trump. Biden on offense and Trump on defense.

cuervo72 · 10-22-2020, 08:38 PM

I'm not, I'm watching PHI/NYG and reading the running commentary here and at 538.

So I'm still watching crap, but a variety that is easier on my blood pressure.

cartman · 10-22-2020, 08:39 PM

Trump kept all of the gift cards that he scratched off and read the numbers to the guy on the phone to prepay his taxes.

10-22-2020, 12:02 PM	#4902
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Also, excellent post molson. I thought a year ago Trump's chances were about 5%. They're probably going to be slightly higher than that, about 5-10%, and that's not nothing - he could win. It isn't over. But the most likely scenario still seems to be rivaling Obama-McCain for the most one-sided election since the 80s, and it's just as likely to be far worse than that as it is for Trump to win. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-22-2020 at 12:03 PM.

10-22-2020, 12:18 PM	#4904
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Wow.... Trailer park tenants say landlord's letter is voter intimidation \| 9news.com __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

10-22-2020, 12:52 PM	#4908
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	People have said for years that massive turnout favors Democrats. I guess we're going to see that put into action, or not. __________________ My listening habits

10-22-2020, 02:24 PM	#4910
henry296 College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Pittsburgh, PA	It reads really similar to the one Trump ad that essential says Biden will raise your taxes and prices for everything will go up including gas and groceries. __________________ "It's a great day for hockey" - "Badger" Bob Johnson

10-22-2020, 04:17 PM	#4917
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania the election is lost. That being said, the polls in PA look pretty good so far. __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

10-22-2020, 11:59 AM	#4901
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Dunno about Pennyslvania as much, but the GOP got crushed in the '18 midterms in Michigan, Whitmer is very popular, etc. The political atmosphere is nothing like it was in '16. There's a loud minority there is very upset, partly about the fact that they're a minority, but right now I think Biden wins the state by 5-7 points. And that's probably conservative.

10-22-2020, 12:04 PM	#4903
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Here in Hamilton County... Cincy So far early voting and returned absentee ballots by party Getting 18865 Dem 6727 Rep This says nothing of who they actually voted for I've seen lots of Biden signs around here where there were no clinton signs 4 years ago So probably guess at least 1000 reps will vote biden maybe?

10-22-2020, 02:50 PM	#4911
sabotai General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Satellite of Love	"ALOT"

10-22-2020, 04:07 PM	#4915
stevew Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the yo'	My HS English teacher always said ALOT doesn't exist and "a lot" is where you park cars.

10-22-2020, 04:10 PM	#4916
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	I am still nervous about Pennsylvania, and I won't believe Biden won Florida until it is actually certified. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

10-22-2020, 04:53 PM	#4920
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Biden could lose PA, but win AZ and come out with a 270-268 EC win. He'd have to win WI and MI in that scenario. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

10-22-2020, 04:54 PM	#4921
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	Arizona is closer than PA in polling however. If he loses PA, it would be difficult for him to win Florida or Arizona. __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

10-22-2020, 06:19 PM	#4922
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Yeah. I think the most likely outcome is a big Biden win with a narrow Trump win probably more likely than a narrow Biden win. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

10-22-2020, 07:12 PM	#4924
tarcone Coordinator Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Pacific	Interesting watching the evolution of this thread. A couple weeks ago it was Biden is going to dominate. Now it is Biden must win PA or its over. Trump is like Covid, he is underestimated and wont go away. __________________ Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15

10-22-2020, 07:21 PM	#4925
cuervo72 Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Maryland	Well, because after 2016, those who are against Trump feel snakebit. It's like how I watch sports these days -- I always expect the worst. Here's a view from someone who does not feel that way (not being a Democrat). A Message to Democrats from Your New Ally - The Bulwark __________________ null

10-22-2020, 07:28 PM	#4926
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	I feel snakebit because at no point in 2016 did I think he could win. Maybe I should not have been overconfident, but I was. So I am majorly overcorrecting. Also, having to win vs. having to win by such a huge amount that the Supreme Court can't steal the election are two different tasks. You can be confident of the first and worried about the second.

10-22-2020, 08:07 PM	#4928
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	lol. First question and Trump already isn't answering. Last edited by Lathum : 10-22-2020 at 08:07 PM.

10-22-2020, 08:12 PM	#4929
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Trump has been far more disciplined for the first question. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

10-22-2020, 08:13 PM	#4930
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	Good to see Trump behaving so far.

10-22-2020, 08:17 PM	#4932
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Already starting to crack, though. I don't think he'll be able to keep it together all night. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

10-22-2020, 08:20 PM	#4933
Atocep Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Puyallup, WA	I don't know who advises Trump on his covid debate strategy but he keeps digging in on losing arguments.

10-22-2020, 08:21 PM	#4934
Galaril Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2004	Trump must be drugged with something to keep him calm. Last edited by Galaril : 10-22-2020 at 08:21 PM.

10-22-2020, 08:21 PM	#4935
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	"all those teachers, not many of you are going to die" lol

10-22-2020, 08:25 PM	#4938
JPhillips Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Joe has massive Come On energy tonight. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

10-22-2020, 08:25 PM	#4939
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	and there it is...

10-22-2020, 08:25 PM	#4940
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	Trump is definitely more subdued. They must have given him a tranquilizer.

10-22-2020, 08:27 PM	#4941
Atocep Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Puyallup, WA	Trump is cracking. Good start, comparatively speaking, but bragging about breaking the law isn't how you wrap up a topic.

10-22-2020, 08:28 PM	#4942
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I love the Biden bought up the NY Post/ Rudy stuff proactively.

10-22-2020, 08:30 PM	#4943
sovereignstar v2 hates iowa Join Date: Oct 2010	Nobody is tougher on Russia than Donny. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

10-22-2020, 08:31 PM	#4944
Atocep Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Puyallup, WA	Does anyone outside Trump's base believe no one is tougher on Russia?

10-22-2020, 08:32 PM	#4945
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Trump claiming he prepaid his taxes, should be easy to verify.

10-22-2020, 08:33 PM	#4946
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	Ok Trump is starting to go off the rails.

10-22-2020, 08:34 PM	#4947
NobodyHere Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2013	I listened to Trump for nearly 20 seconds, but I'm not drunk enough to withstand it. What is your guys/gals secret to your resilience to actually watch this thing? __________________ "I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney"

10-22-2020, 08:37 PM	#4948
Galaril Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2004	Biden has done really well and has really taken it to Trump. Biden on offense and Trump on defense. Last edited by Galaril : 10-22-2020 at 08:37 PM.

10-22-2020, 08:38 PM	#4949
cuervo72 Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Maryland	I'm not, I'm watching PHI/NYG and reading the running commentary here and at 538. So I'm still watching crap, but a variety that is easier on my blood pressure. __________________ null