Survivor: New Helsing Tribal Thread

[Passacaglia]

I'm thinking that we should make sure to put in at least a small amount for each one -- just in case no one else bids on it?

[Passacaglia]

Also, I'm not too thrilled with the reward for winning first place in this challenge. I think our focus should be on making sure we don't get last place.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This one looks fun!



Any initial impressions?

.

[Passacaglia]

I see no restriction on bidding pennies. I say that we bid 1 cent for most of them, then spend the rest on...maybe 3-4 of them?

[Alan T]

Well I am not sure what the numbers next to the items mean just yet. Not sure if it means a potency, or that is part of the game we have to figure out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm thinking that we should make sure to put in at least a small amount for each one -- just in case no one else bids on it?

may be hard, we would be commiting 15 dollars just by doing that

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I see no restriction on bidding pennies. I say that we bid 1 cent for most of them, then spend the rest on...maybe 3-4 of them?

Maybe we should ask what the minimum bid is on each.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well I am not sure what the numbers next to the items mean just yet. Not sure if it means a potency, or that is part of the game we have to figure out.

I think the numbers are how many points you get for winning that auction. Whoever has the most points wins. So, the greatest competition will be for Greater Werewolvia, but perhaps the threat of greater competition will mean people will shy away, creating less competition...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I see no restriction on bidding pennies. I say that we bid 1 cent for most of them, then spend the rest on...maybe 3-4 of them?

hmm, i think we should ask BK that question. I am aiming him now

[Alan T]

Oh ok now I see.. each item is worth certain points and the most points win...

Also winner does get wolf immunity

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Maybe we should ask what the minimum bid is on each.

I'll send a PM.

[Lathum]

we have to bid in whole dollar amounts, but good thought pass

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Oh ok now I see.. each item is worth certain points and the most points win...

Also winner does get wolf immunity

Oh, okay -- then let's win!

[Alan T]

Ok so each team has $29 so thats $116 total out there.

For amount evenly split among all items, that would be on average

1.9 Dollars per item. So We would be able to spend $2 on each, with $1 on the rest.

[Lathum]

I agree we need to not finish last, the reward is all stuff that probably will be shared information at some point

[Alan T]

However not all items are equal. There are a total of 277 points worth of items..

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok so each team has $29 so thats $116 total out there.

For amount evenly split among all items, that would be on average

1.9 Dollars per item. So We would be able to spend $2 on each, with $1 on the rest.

so are you saying spread our money out on every place?

[Alan T]

So breaking down each items by its relative worth we get:

A. Greater Werewolvia - 33 = 11.9%
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 = 5%
C. Lesser Werewolvia - 20 = 7.2%
D. Fleabit Cove - 11 = 3.9%
E. Dogbonia - 10 = = 3.6%
F. Dog Ear - 12 = 4.3%
G. Homidia - 15 = 5.4%
H. Lupinia - 16 = 5.7%
I. Garouvia - 25 = 9%
J. North Canis - 17 = 6.1%
K. Lake Wolfsbane - 18 = 6.4%
L. South Canis - 29 = 10.4%
M. Lower Fang - 23 = 8.3%
N. Upper Fang -21 = 7.5%
O. Alpovia - 13 = 4.6%

[Lathum]

does anyone else get the feeling this may boil down to luck and not over thinking?

[Lathum]

obviously alan doesn't

[Passacaglia]

I know it wasn't directly proposed, but spreading out evenly seems risky to me -- we run the risk of not getting any, with 4 tribes out there.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

does anyone else get the feeling this may boil down to luck and not over thinking?

It may...unfortunately, we'll never know, even after the results come out. :P

[Alan T]

So breaking down each item's relative worth by how much money we have, we find out in money terms how much each item is "worth"

A. Greater Werewolvia - 33 = 11.9% = $3.45
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 = 5% = $1.45
C. Lesser Werewolvia - 20 = 7.2% = $2.08
D. Fleabit Cove - 11 = 3.9% = 1.13
E. Dogbonia - 10 = = 3.6% = $1.04
F. Dog Ear - 12 = 4.3% = $1.24
G. Homidia - 15 = 5.4% = $1.56
H. Lupinia - 16 = 5.7% = $1.65
I. Garouvia - 25 = 9% = $2.61
J. North Canis - 17 = 6.1% = $1.76
K. Lake Wolfsbane - 18 = 6.4% = $1.85
L. South Canis - 29 = 10.4% = $3.01
M. Lower Fang - 23 = 8.3% = $2.40
N. Upper Fang -21 = 7.5% = $2.17
O. Alpovia - 13 = 4.6% = $1.33

[Lathum]

I have an idea. Why don't within the tribe the 6 of us privately take
$29 each and come up with our own bids on paper. We then choose a time, say 4:00PM EST and we all post our bids. Whoever's bid gets the most points we go with it. Kind of like a challange within a challange. This should give us an interesting case study as to what may happen.

[Alan T]

Well if we have finite amounts of money, you can only spend so much. Spending all of it to get the best item means you have no money for the rest. Spending a little bit on each item likely will get you only a few items in return.

With everyone having the same amount of money, everyone will have to pick and choose where to spend it, so it seems to make sense to spend it the most effeciently by not over spending on any item.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have an idea. Why don't within the tribe the 6 of us privately take
$29 each and come up with our own bids on paper. We then choose a time, say 4:00PM EST and we all post our bids. Whoever's bid gets the most points we go with it. Kind of like a challange within a challange. This should give us an interesting case study as to what may happen.

That sounds like fun. I am game

[Alan T]

Can we say by 3pm EST though instead? that way we can have time to total them up, and then talk about the final product before 4-4:30? Thats usually when I have to head out.

[Passacaglia]

Works for me. I don't know how much thought I will put into it, though. But I'm game, also!

[Lathum]

3:00 is fine for me, I'll be around and can total them up. I think we should wait untill about 11:00 EST for Mr Wed, gramm and sndvls to check in and ok it.

[Passacaglia]

Alan's time works for me too -- I usually head out after 6 PM eastern, anyway.

[Alan T]

Well worst case, they don't want to do it and we can pick up discussion from there.

With my selections I submit at 3pm, I'll give my reasons and thoughts for them. I already have it all worked out on paper. I could do it right now if we wanted

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Works for me. I don't know how much thought I will put into it, though. But I'm game, also!

to me that is the point. I think over discussing this will get us no where. IMO it is pretty much a crap shoot but doing it this way should be a realistic simulation.

[Lathum]

ok, so unless the others object 3:00 it is

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

to me that is the point. I think over discussing this will get us no where. IMO it is pretty much a crap shoot but doing it this way should be a realistic simulation.

I agree -- the last couple challenges have really sucked my work days, and I need to catch up. So that's cool with me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

to me that is the point. I think over discussing this will get us no where. IMO it is pretty much a crap shoot but doing it this way should be a realistic simulation.

See I disagree, I think this contest is all about getting the best "bargain" and to get a good bargain you need to know how much things are worth. If you overspend for some to get them and underspend for others that you lose out, I argue you will end up worse off than an approach to be the most effecient.

That said, I think our exercise of a trial run among us 6 is the best way for all of us to put our test theories to work and really see if a random guess will out perform mathematical formulas. If it does, then we just go with that

[Grammaticus]

I asked Bk a question on bidding and how the bidding process works. Is there an order for the auction to be resolved? Do we have to send a PM to him or post in thread. Most importantly, if we could over bid our total amount on items and he said NO. My thought was to over bid and see what you win as the auction is resolved and you ran out of money, any bids left standing would be cancelled. But that is not going to work. We have to distribute our bids to the ecact total.

I did not get an answer on how we send in the bids or post in thread.

do you guys think we should post a fake bid in the main thread to cause confusion?

[Alan T]

I -think- and could be wrong that one of us is chosen by our team to submit the PM to him with our bids in private before the deadline

[Grammaticus]

I'm good with everyone posting a submission for review.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

See I disagree, I think this contest is all about getting the best "bargain" and to get a good bargain you need to know how much things are worth. If you overspend for some to get them and underspend for others that you lose out, I argue you will end up worse off than an approach to be the most effecient.

That said, I think our exercise of a trial run among us 6 is the best way for all of us to put our test theories to work and really see if a random guess will out perform mathematical formulas. If it does, then we just go with that

Your theory only works if everyone else plays the same way. If we try to get the best bargin we run the risk of getting outbid on everything.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

do you guys think we should post a fake bid in the main thread to cause confusion?

It's an interesting thought but we better check with BK first.

[Lathum]

ok, waiting on sndvls and Mr. Wed.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Your theory only works if everyone else plays the same way. If we try to get the best bargin we run the risk of getting outbid on everything.

I think thats why your idea of a test run is great. It puts theories into practice. I imagine between the 6 of us we will have ideas similar to what you would see occur in practice.

The one thing I will say is I think my idea works best with less numbers of teams. With only 2 teams competing, I bet my idea wins 100% of the time.

With 3 teams I feel less confident, and 4 teams less so. With 6 of us submitting you may be correct in me getting shut out, but I want to give it a whirl and see what happens at 3

[Passacaglia]

Wow...a fake bid could be pretty devious. Especially if we don't explain anything -- it's just some names and numbers...I wonder if it might be a bit too much given yesterday's events, though.

[Barkeep49]

Real submission should be PM'ed but by all means feel free to do a fake out in the thrad

[Passacaglia]

Awesome!! Even if it has no affect on anyone, we should do this just for giggles. Now...at what time? If it's too early, it might be obvious that it's fake. But if it's too late, the other tribes don't have time to mull it over.

Should we have someone else come on immediately after and say something like "You were supposed to PM that, not post it!" ?

[Lathum]

I think we should do it later in the day and sndvls should do it.

[Alan T]

I think it needs to be pretty late or it won't seem to have any reality at all. Most likely no one will buy it anyways. I would say wait till 9:45 or so to post it, and then just leave it at that. Just post it and don't say anything else.

Then if anyone comments about it or such, then you can just say it was a suggestion bid and not our real bid, just keeping it short and sweet.

But in reality if this ends up just being luck like Lathum says, a fake out wont matter. It doesnt improve or worsen luck

[SnDvls]

hey all trying to play some catchup so you probally won't get a whole lot out of me today so I'll go with whatever the team wants.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

hey all trying to play some catchup so you probally won't get a whole lot out of me today so I'll go with whatever the team wants.

cool, are you able to go with todays strategy and have a sample bid in by 3:00 EST?

[Passacaglia]

That's cool, SnDvls. You can definitely have a pass today, since you just joined, and today's challenge is light.