WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm still willing to consider DT today, but I'm more interested in pursuing PackerFan and Dubb. I feel they're top suspects out of the ones I have left. Since you have shown willingness to possibly go after PF, Hoops, and i think others have, I will try him.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

Autumn, you're high on my trust list (not "hoops" high, but high), and your reads have seemed to be good, so I am inclined to follow you onto PF. I think if I was going on my own, I might lean toward DT, but that's tough--I am influenced by hoops' noting some of the decisions DT has made which would seem to lead to him being a villager. My DT feel is mroe gut than anything.

From what I can tell, PF has a good vote or two as well, but I think it was fleeting enough that he could have been doing it as a trust vote.

I don't know that I am ready to vote Lathum, but I think it's interesting to note that we seem to be having trouble pinning potential wolves down in the remainder of the village. By process of elimination, it would almost lead one to Lathum, despite his protestations. At some point (and soon, we don't have much time), we may have to consider him more carefully.

For now, though, I am comfortable trying to follow vote record and vouching to an extent.

I'm with hoops on dubb, BTW. Not sure he could eb a wolf and make the moves he did. If he did, kudos to him.

[Autumn]

I agree, Chief. Basically I feel like process of elimination has led me to a list of suspects, and I'm sure the wolves must be there. Frankly, they're not the ones I would necessarily distrust the most, or the ones with the worst voting records. Frankly, Jackal and Abe had the worst voting records, so I'm not sure we can go too strongly by that.

Lathum has a wolf-vibe, sure, but I usually feel that way every game. I am trending towards believing him on his role and therefore his villager status but I may very well vote him in a day or two. This day however I think we have better candidates, by which I mean candidates who don't have anything to vouch for them other than perhaps voting. Frankly, I think maybe the wolves have played a game of giving themselves good voting records, as nobody left has a real bad voting record, and most of the villagers voted off have had abysmal ones.

Poli, Dubb and PF have so far not had to risk much in conversation, they're UTR I guess you could say though. I'd like to have the pressure on them and see what they can offer to sway us. I think we have at worst a 2/3 shot of hitting a wolf there.

[Autumn]

I would not normally encourage the village to follow my hunches. I don't have a knack for that. But I"m putting myself out front here because I think I'm working with more information than the rest of the village.

[Lathum]

Is it just me or does Poli seem to have to good a voting record?

[Autumn]

Well, he was latched on to Telle for quite a while, so that's what bumped his numbers so high, FWIW

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I agree, Chief. Basically I feel like process of elimination has led me to a list of suspects, and I'm sure the wolves must be there. Frankly, they're not the ones I would necessarily distrust the most, or the ones with the worst voting records. Frankly, Jackal and Abe had the worst voting records, so I'm not sure we can go too strongly by that.

Lathum has a wolf-vibe, sure, but I usually feel that way every game. I am trending towards believing him on his role and therefore his villager status but I may very well vote him in a day or two. This day however I think we have better candidates, by which I mean candidates who don't have anything to vouch for them other than perhaps voting. Frankly, I think maybe the wolves have played a game of giving themselves good voting records, as nobody left has a real bad voting record, and most of the villagers voted off have had abysmal ones.

Poli, Dubb and PF have so far not had to risk much in conversation, they're UTR I guess you could say though. I'd like to have the pressure on them and see what they can offer to sway us. I think we have at worst a 2/3 shot of hitting a wolf there.

Based on your last paragraph - we've seen that dubb has made some votes that would have been tough for a wolf, and i'm willing to give poli the benefit of the doubt (although he could be the wolf that they decided to use to "push" Telle so that she could brutal-someone), but I'm not sure that's our highest percentage play.

Of those 3 names you mentioned then, I think that leads to PF.

[DaddyTorgo]

I will give kudos to the wolves this game though - they've played it quite well.

[Lathum]

this has nothing to do with the game.

someone give me a number between 1-9

[hoopsguy]

7

[hoopsguy]

Slow day when I'm the first reply, three minutes later.

[Lathum]

ok, now I need a number 1-5

[Danny]

What is this for?

[Danny]

5

[Lathum]

ok, thanks

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Danny

What is this for?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would agree with this, except DT is claiming he is no longer of use to us while my ability has yet to manifest itself.

DT, was your ability a one time thing?

when exactly will your ability manifest itself...that is hardly a role reveal, since i am not asking what your ability is...simply a timeframe

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

when exactly will your ability manifest itself...that is hardly a role reveal, since i am not asking what your ability is...simply a timeframe

Danny won't allow me to say, but I think I've made enough references to point in the correct direction.

[hoopsguy]

I remain extremely skeptical on Lathum's role and very much look forward to seeing what it is in the postgame if in fact he is a villager.

[saldana]

ok...so heres my thing today...i dont think both lathum and hoops are villagers, but i cant decide which one to go with.

if we lynch hoops, and are wrong, we lose a villager, then we lose the night kill as well and go down two for the day to however many wolves are left.

but, if we lynch lathum today, and he is telling the truth about not being able to be lynched, we only go down one (the night kill), and we have ended the lathum question....i cannot imagine a wolf role that needs to be lynched twice in the same game with a brutal and a cunning.

vote lathum

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[DaddyTorgo]

saldana raises an interesting point about lathum - and one that we probably should have resolved long ago

[saldana]

also, i have iron pigs tickets for tonight, so i will not be around at the deadline

[Autumn]

anyone keeping a vote count?

[DaddyTorgo]

iron pigs? is that a band??

i should be around after 6:30 i hope

[Lathum]

WTF is an iron pig?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

saldana raises an interesting point about lathum - and one that we probably should have resolved long ago

and what point is that?

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE LATHUM

Sal makes a good point about Lathum's role, whatever that may be. This vote is subject to change, but I think the count is pretty close as it is.

[Lathum]

hmmm

not a fan.

I see Sals points but the wolves also know this gives us another day of not killing a wolf.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

iron pigs? is that a band??

i should be around after 6:30 i hope

Originally Posted by Lathum

WTF is an iron pig?

the phillies AAA franchise = the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs

[dubb93]

Getting caught up.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

the phillies AAA franchise = the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs

who you going with?

[hoopsguy]

PF, why Lathum today and not yesterday?

What made Abe more compelling yesterday than Lathum at that time?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Just so we are clear - there are two people who have expressed a high degree of certainty that I am not a wolf but I'm the only person with votes right now?

If Autumn comes out and reveals that he KNOWS you are a villager like CR I would expect every player in the game other than you 3 to vote for one of you.

[Lathum]

OK, here is the thing with Sals plan.

We assume we are 6-3. If we don't have a lynch today that puts us at 5-3 after the night kill that can't be blocked.

Which means we have to be 100% tomorrow or we are screwed.

NOW

if we lynch a villager today we are at 5-3 going into the night phase. They get their kill and it is 4-3 and we still have a shot at a kill tomorrow to stay alive.

so either way we have to be 100% today or tomorrow.

Now if you think I am a wolf by all means vote for me, but if you don't then I think we need to try and find a wolf today. By voting today we get 2 shots, one today and 1 tomorrow. By using Sals plan we only get 1 shot at it tomorrow.

[PackerFanatic]

It was between the two of them for me, and no one other than you was giving good reasons why Lathum was a better candidate. I still don't know if he is even a good candidate today, but like Sal, I am curious to see what it is that triggers his role that he has been talking about since day 2 and I think what he is could determine a lot going forward.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i don't want to vote for myself because i know i'm a villager, albeit one who can now no longer provide any useful info on anybody.

i'd rather vote lathum than saldana, just b/c i don't think lathum+hoops are on the same side. but i suppose saldana + pf + lathum/hoops could be the trio of wolves left...

Are you indicating that your role has suggested that Lathum and Hoops aren't on the same side?

[PackerFanatic]

UNVOTE LATHUM

Good point...I am not 100% convinced you are a wolf, and I'd rather have 1 additional chance to get it right tomorrow than royally screw us over today.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Poli, Dubb and PF have so far not had to risk much in conversation, they're UTR I guess you could say though. I'd like to have the pressure on them and see what they can offer to sway us. I think we have at worst a 2/3 shot of hitting a wolf there.

It is hard to stay UTR when you have made the votes I have. If you think I am UTR so far this game then I think you are wolf spewing shit and hoping it sticks.

[hoopsguy]

Votes through post #3237:

Lathum - Saldana (3219)
DT - Hoops (3168)
PF - Autumn (3183), DT (3220)

#3113 - Lathum votes Hoops 1-0
#3123 - DT votes Hoops 2-0
#3168 - Hoops votes DT 2-1 Hoops over DT
#3170 - Lathum unvotes Hoops 1-1 Hoops/DT
#3183 - Autumn votes PF 1-1-1 Hoops/DT/PF
#3187 - DT unvotes Hoops 1-1 DT/PF
#3219 - Saldana votes Lathum 1-1-1 DT/PF/Lathum
#3220 - DT votes PF 2-1-1 PF over DT/Lathum
#3227 - PF votes Lathum 2-2-1 PF/Lathum over DT
#3237 - PF unvotes Lathum 2-1-1 PF over DT/Lathum

[dubb93]

Vote Hoops

I think I provided my reasons like night and I see no reason to change my mind with what I seen in here so far today. I just really have a bad feeling that Hoops is playing the role of puppet master here and it appears so far everyone is eating it up. I'm having a hard time so far this game finding even one time where Hoops has questioned someone and convinced them to go elsewhere and it actually ended up being the right move for the village.

[Lathum]

I'm really torn.

Part of me feels Hoops is playing us, but the only way I see that is if they have some double kill mechanic.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dubb93

It is hard to stay UTR when you have made the votes I have. If you think I am UTR so far this game then I think you are wolf spewing shit and hoping it sticks.

I tried to make clear that I was referring to in conversation, not in voting. As I said, you have a good voting record.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm really torn.

Part of me feels Hoops is playing us, but the only way I see that is if they have some double kill mechanic.

If they have 3 left and it is 4/3 today they have alot of freedom tomarrow. I really see it as end game strat here on the Hoops/CR reveal. As I already said they crit one of us remaining villagers tomorrow and then I would guess they put out 3 early quick votes on someone and hope the tie mechanic is either tie=no lynch or tie=first to receive last vote first as it is in nearly every game I have ever played.

I really think it is short sighted to think there is no way Hoops and CR have thought this through and have come up with a plan if they are both wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Vote Hoops

I think I provided my reasons like night and I see no reason to change my mind with what I seen in here so far today. I just really have a bad feeling that Hoops is playing the role of puppet master here and it appears so far everyone is eating it up. I'm having a hard time so far this game finding even one time where Hoops has questioned someone and convinced them to go elsewhere and it actually ended up being the right move for the village.

How about yesterday, when I suggested Abe was not the right choice prior to him launching his own defense?

Dubb, do you think that me + Chief + Autumn are the last wolves and we have a double kill metric in place to make that work? Work through the numbers, come up with a way that works. It is kind of a useless exercise with me not being a wolf, but I want you to draw that conclusion yourself.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

How about yesterday, when I suggested Abe was not the right choice prior to him launching his own defense?

Dubb, do you think that me + Chief + Autumn are the last wolves and we have a double kill metric in place to make that work? Work through the numbers, come up with a way that works. It is kind of a useless exercise with me not being a wolf, but I want you to draw that conclusion yourself.

Done and done

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

If they have 3 left and it is 4/3 today they have alot of freedom tomarrow. I really see it as end game strat here on the Hoops/CR reveal. As I already said they crit one of us remaining villagers tomorrow and then I would guess they put out 3 early quick votes on someone and hope the tie mechanic is either tie=no lynch or tie=first to receive last vote first as it is in nearly every game I have ever played.

I really think it is short sighted to think there is no way Hoops and CR have thought this through and have come up with a plan if they are both wolves.

Really risky to rush to the "first to three, hope I guess the tiebreaker" when the alternative is to play it more slowly and take advantage of how confused the villagers have been just about the entire game.

[Autumn]

I can be sure at this point that Hoops is not playing us. If you assume Hoops/CR are good, where would you vote, Lathum?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can be sure at this point that Hoops is not playing us. If you assume Hoops/CR are good, where would you vote, Lathum?

LOL Now the 3 of you are vouching for each other? You have to be kidding me.

[dubb93]

This is really starting to smell of Hoops more and more.

[Lathum]

Vote Hoops

I have to go with my gut here