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Old 11-17-2010, 07:31 PM   #151
Raiders Army
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Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
It's also the second time you have voted for me without giving a reason. It's hard to defend myself when I have someone who apparently is crusading against me, and I don't even know why.

Heck, you just threw out two great potential targets today in two non-Day One voters in hoops and The Jackal, but you fly right by that to vote for me.

I am fine with getting votes. I just hope you'll back yourself up better than with yesterday's "let's start something" or today's "i'll throw out the first vote..."

Sorry man. I'm not crusading against you whatsoever. I put the second vote on you to see what would happen (since day 1 is a crapshoot, right?). I put a vote on you today because it was down to you and Pass for the lynch and Pass turned out to be a villager.

I sort of give the no-shows a bye since (not sure if this is logical) the vamps were definitely active yesterday with the night kill and neither of them was around...statistically speaking, it is probable that they are both (or at least one) villagers.
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Old 11-17-2010, 07:39 PM   #152
RendeR
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I'll be back in a while, gotta put the monsters to bed.
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Old 11-17-2010, 07:49 PM   #153
DaddyTorgo
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Interesting.
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Old 11-17-2010, 07:52 PM   #154
Autumn
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Originally Posted by saldana View Post
Autumns vote for DT bothers me there, and if I didn't thin it would be a throwaway, I would go for him right now

Since I am not going to introduce a new candidate at this point, he can wait for tomorrow

vote raiders army

Why? I did exactly what I said I wanted to do earlier, which was look back at the votes and see which was most suspicious. I've already said I wasn't going to vote Chief, so voting one of the two 1-vote getters with three hours left to go doesn't seem real imperative.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:00 PM   #155
J23
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Well, Lathum and Render were the two people that swung the vote onto Pass and got him lynched. Lathum obviously was a good guy, but the late vote by Render on the good guy that got lynched obviously puts him on the radar.

I'm hoping that Hoops shows up at some point. I'm also hoping that Danny shows up to put in his thoughts. I'm not used to him being this quiet, so that's making me wonder a bit. Of course, maybe I'm just more suspicious of him simply because he said he was up for voting for me day one
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:14 PM   #156
Danny
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I will be voting J23 or Raiders Army. I know people are looking at those late voters, but there is almost always a wolf or two that puts a second vote on someone.

The second votes from yesterday were J23, Raiders Army and myself. I'd bet at least one of J23 and Raiders is a wolf.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:16 PM   #157
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
Well, Lathum and Render were the two people that swung the vote onto Pass and got him lynched. Lathum obviously was a good guy, but the late vote by Render on the good guy that got lynched obviously puts him on the radar.

I'm hoping that Hoops shows up at some point. I'm also hoping that Danny shows up to put in his thoughts. I'm not used to him being this quiet, so that's making me wonder a bit. Of course, maybe I'm just more suspicious of him simply because he said he was up for voting for me day one

I'm not really quiet compared to usual, more absent though. I actually fell asleep yesterday after putting in my vote, but was planning to be around after deadline. I'm more well rested today, so will be around up to deadline.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:24 PM   #158
Danny
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Vote J23

I realize this a new candidate and it's likely too late to swing the candidates, but there's still time to see. If there is no swing, I will be switching to Raiders Army and not Render.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:29 PM   #159
Autumn
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I will switch to make my vote relevant later, as need be. But I think DT is a more reasonable vote than many here. He put Pass up front when there was a lot to pick from. That's the time that a wolf wants to vote, precisely because it gets a bit buried by later voters.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:32 PM   #160
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I will switch to make my vote relevant later, as need be. But I think DT is a more reasonable vote than many here. He put Pass up front when there was a lot to pick from. That's the time that a wolf wants to vote, precisely because it gets a bit buried by later voters.

I looked back and DT appears to be a solid vote as well. My thinking is along the same line as yours, but I was looking more at 2nd votes because it's a very common spot for a wolf and I happen to have been one.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:37 PM   #161
DaddyTorgo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I will switch to make my vote relevant later, as need be. But I think DT is a more reasonable vote than many here. He put Pass up front when there was a lot to pick from. That's the time that a wolf wants to vote, precisely because it gets a bit buried by later voters.

Indeed I did. There was a lot to choose from, but i had no better way of knowing who was or wasn't a villager than anybody else. It wasn't some master plan by me to push Pass into the lead or anything.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:39 PM   #162
Danny
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Unvote J23
Vote Raiders Army


I already don't see a swing happening, and I feel much better about voting him than Render
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:41 PM   #163
Autumn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I looked back and DT appears to be a solid vote as well. My thinking is along the same line as yours, but I was looking more at 2nd votes because it's a very common spot for a wolf and I happen to have been one.

lol, not the best wording there Danny.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:45 PM   #164
Danny
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I'll assume you're just pointing that out for brevity and not really trying to draw attention to me for what is clearly referring to something else :P
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:47 PM   #165
Autumn
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I had to read that a few times, trying to figure out why you would be revealing yourself at this point ;-)
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:50 PM   #166
Danny
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You mean revealing as a wolf won't add to my trust level? haha
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:02 PM   #167
Autumn
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Anyone have the vote count?
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:04 PM   #168
Danny
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Raiders Army 3
Chief Rum 2
Render 2
DT 1

I believe
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:06 PM   #169
Autumn
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So still three votes missing. I will be here, so I'll wait to move my vote to see if we get those three.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:13 PM   #170
RendeR
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I'm here and reading, I haven't voted SOLELY for reasons of self preservation. I will vote before deadline.

I'm pondering between DT and Chief Rum right now for reasons I will state later.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:16 PM   #171
Raiders Army
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UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE RENDER


Self-preservation and other reasons.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:17 PM   #172
The Jackal
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Going to be in the subway at deadline. Even though at least one person has said they are avoiding render I see no reason to change at the moment.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:24 PM   #173
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
I'd feel better voting Render than RA, though I don't wish to see a tie vote. I guess we'll see how the pieces fall, and try to stick around to move my vote to avoid a tie if need be.

Vote Render
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:28 PM   #174
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
If you're around Danny, I'm wondering what your reasoning is for throwing the vote on me earlier.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:29 PM   #175
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I will be voting J23 or Raiders Army. I know people are looking at those late voters, but there is almost always a wolf or two that puts a second vote on someone.

The second votes from yesterday were J23, Raiders Army and myself. I'd bet at least one of J23 and Raiders is a wolf.

Well, I'd bet that you or J23 is a wolf.

That being said, if Render turns up as a wolf, you'd be my first pick tomorrow...knowing I'm a villager.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:32 PM   #176
Autumn
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Why did you switch your vote, RA?
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:32 PM   #177
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
If you're around Danny, I'm wondering what your reasoning is for throwing the vote on me earlier.

reasoning is above and quoted by RA
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:34 PM   #178
J23
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So it would have been better to bring in a 5th (or was it 6th) candidate with one vote?

I've seen that reasoning thrown around a number of times, but I honestly don't remember the last time that going by that logic caught us a wolf.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:34 PM   #179
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Why did you switch your vote, RA?

Self-preservation first and foremost. At the time, I was the led the votes with 3. My switch made it a tie. I know I'm not a villager (then again, that's what a vamp would say!).
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:36 PM   #180
J23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
I know I'm not a villager (then again, that's what a vamp would say!).


er...
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:37 PM   #181
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
So it would have been better to bring in a 5th (or was it 6th) candidate with one vote?

I've seen that reasoning thrown around a number of times, but I honestly don't remember the last time that going by that logic caught us a wolf.

The second vote theory? It's help me catch a wolf probably upwards of a dozen times.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:39 PM   #182
RendeR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
Self-preservation first and foremost. At the time, I was the led the votes with 3. My switch made it a tie. I know I'm not a villager (then again, that's what a vamp would say!).


Umm.....yeah, really?
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:41 PM   #183
Autumn
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lol, we've had two wolf reveals in one night! wow, lol
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:41 PM   #184
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
I'm tempted to go back through games and see how often it's actually true for day 1. I also wonder how much impact the fact that people know a lot of people throw out that theory influences their votes. I know it has affected mine in the past. I guess it's just one of those meta-game kind of things I don't put much faith in.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:42 PM   #185
Autumn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
I'm here and reading, I haven't voted SOLELY for reasons of self preservation. I will vote before deadline.

I'm pondering between DT and Chief Rum right now for reasons I will state later.

I'd like to hear your thinking, Render, since I'm having to decide whether to move my vote to you or not.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:42 PM   #186
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
The second vote theory? It's help me catch a wolf probably upwards of a dozen times.

You're not making any sense whatsoever. If you're going by a second vote theory and trying to convince others to do so, then they should vote for you since you put a second vote yesterday.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:43 PM   #187
Danny
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It's not meta game though, it's a strong statistical play for wolves to place second votes on villagers to establish them as candidates for the day and making it less likely a wolf is on the block. It's something I know I've done too often as a wolf, and it's very tempting to do as a wolf in general.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:44 PM   #188
RendeR
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This is going to sound very cliche, but:


You really don't want to vote for me.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:44 PM   #189
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
You're not making any sense whatsoever. If you're going by a second vote theory and trying to convince others to do so, then they should vote for you since you put a second vote yesterday.

I'm one of the three yes, and I never eliminated myself from the list when talking about 2nd votes.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:44 PM   #190
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
It's not meta game though, it's a strong statistical play for wolves to place second votes on villagers to establish them as candidates for the day and making it less likely a wolf is on the block. It's something I know I've done too often as a wolf, and it's very tempting to do as a wolf in general.

So, if you know that and you're a villager then why would you put yourself in a position to bring suspicion on you?
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:47 PM   #191
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
So, if you know that and you're a villager then why would you put yourself in a position to bring suspicion on you?

I'm going to post my thoughts about what I think is the best play regardless if it brings suspicion on me or not.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:47 PM   #192
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I'm one of the three yes, and I never eliminated myself from the list when talking about 2nd votes.
Well, yes you did in a way. I understand you aren't going to vote for yourself, but you also didn't put yourself out there as a candidate based upon the logic you presented.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:48 PM   #193
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
Well, yes you did in a way. I understand you aren't going to vote for yourself, but you also didn't put yourself out there as a candidate based upon the logic you presented.

I made sure to include myself on the list. I'm not really sure what else I am supposed to do, should I argue why other people should specifically lynch me?
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:48 PM   #194
Raiders Army
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dola, in other words you never presented a good argument why we shouldn't vote for you instead of J23 or me based upon the "2nd Vote" logic.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:49 PM   #195
DaddyTorgo
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Somebody's got to place the 2nd vote on someone at some point though right?

I mean I get the "2nd vote theory" thing, but you can just as easily turn it around. I know when I'm a wolf I try actively to place votes later, particularly towards the end to break ties so that I can pull out the corollary of that and say "see...i'm not afraid to stand by the logic of my vote."

I dunno...it has value, but I don't think you can look at it in a vacumn
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:49 PM   #196
RendeR
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guys, stop bickering and start fixing the votes. We're getting screwed here. Please don't vote my way tonight.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:50 PM   #197
Danny
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And I didn't need to, I haven't received any votes. I would be happy to make that argument if it was needed.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:51 PM   #198
RendeR
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I'm reading it 4-3 me over Raiders. Right now. Am I wrong?

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY


Purely self preservation here.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:52 PM   #199
J23
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unvote Render
vote RA


Not sure why, but I'm buying it right now.
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Old 11-17-2010, 09:52 PM   #200
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo View Post
Somebody's got to place the 2nd vote on someone at some point though right?

I mean I get the "2nd vote theory" thing, but you can just as easily turn it around. I know when I'm a wolf I try actively to place votes later, particularly towards the end to break ties so that I can pull out the corollary of that and say "see...i'm not afraid to stand by the logic of my vote."

I dunno...it has value, but I don't think you can look at it in a vacumn

Of course not, but we don't have a ton to go on right now. I think looking at voters that set the candidates is generally a better play than looking at the late voters in this case.
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