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Old 10-04-2011, 04:00 PM   #651
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
BTW, i full believe Dubb would have buried ntn if was a wolf (who knew ntn was also)

Agreed.
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:10 PM   #652
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Agreed.

yup
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:13 PM   #653
dubb93
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ELB has most of my attention today but I'm tempted to vote for Lathum or Narc for not making any sense to me or for Jackal as a hunch. I would also love to hear from Danny again and get some answers. For the amount of people in this game today has been relatively quiet.
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:31 PM   #654
Zinto
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Honestly looking back at the snipet of voting history since I really do not have time to look back at everything Jackal's voting looks the worst. He touched every candidate yesterday other then ntn so that is where I am going to place my vote.

Vote Jackal
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:36 PM   #655
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Alternately my original thought, and the reason I stayed with J23, was that it seemed like J23, who was the natural person to move to after bhlloy - being in the lead, being present, and having admitted to having no role - was not getting any votes. That makes me want to look at J23 again. Obviously these two theories are incompatible. It would mean a J23 wolf paired with at least one of those Mauboy voters.

A possible wolf/wolf runoff was also a reason dzilla might have not voted J23 after unvoting. But I always try to throw out theories that suggest I now know all of the wolves.

First off, I'm pretty slammed at work, so I probably won't be able to contribute much today until closer to deadline, if much then. Anyway...

I understood your vote yesterday Autumn, and I actually think the move at the end to bury ntn is a good thing since we don't know what kind of voting manipulation might be in play. However, I'm really skeptical about your wolf/wolf theory for yesterday when a common thread throughout the discussions has been about he obvious conversion mechanics in place for this game. Given those mechanics, how many wolves do you think started this game? Out of the 24 people that started, you think we lucked into picking two wolves as the run-off candidates? On top of that you're saying that Dzilla would be a third wolf linked to the wolf/wolf run-off? That's just getting a bit ridiculous.

As for my moving my vote onto mau before ntn that someone brought up, I didn't want to pile on a guy that is often voted early due to not being around as much. It's why I originally put my vote on bhlloy rather than him as well (and I think I mentioned that last night as well).
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:40 PM   #656
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I've got a flag fb game starting at our deadline so I won't be around to see last minute shenanigans. I should be able to sneak a quick peek about 10 minutes prior to deadline though.
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:40 PM   #657
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Originally Posted by J23 View Post

As for my moving my vote onto mau before ntn that someone brought up, I didn't want to pile on a guy that is often voted early due to not being around as much. It's why I originally put my vote on bhlloy rather than him as well (and I think I mentioned that last night as well).

I agree with this and I brought it up last night too. In fact it was the only reason I didn't vote NtN. Not saying if this wasn't in play that I would have voted him, I simply had no read on either player. Last night I was catching up in the last 25 minutes or so.

Also NtN is clearly fed up with this crap too and I don't blame him. See the vent thread. In the future short of a seer scan NtN is off my radar for the first game week and I think other people should consider this as well.
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:42 PM   #658
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
yup

So you agree I wouldn't do that as a wolf yet vote me? Any reason you want to lynch villagers?
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Old 10-04-2011, 04:59 PM   #659
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OOC:

Hey everyone,

Came down with some sort of stomach bug last night, which pretty much wiped out my night.


Something(one) you ate?

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Old 10-04-2011, 05:00 PM   #660
dubb93
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Vote Lathum

I can't get past the fact that he agrees with Hoops that I would not do what I did yesterday as a wolf yet he wants to see me lynched.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:01 PM   #661
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I suggest others vote Lathum so we give him so motivation to explain this when he shows up.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:05 PM   #662
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vote saldana

Will be out most of the evening as the ELB draft starts live tonight and is taking up most of my time. I will try to check in a couple times prior but the draft will most likely keep me away at the deadline.

Voting sal for pretty much no reason except that he has a vote and wanting to keep it close. Don't want to vote dubb as he may be tied up in the draft as well so he won't be able to defend himself here.

Sadly, I probably should have passed on this one as I don't know if I will be able to keep up anything close to my normal participation.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:09 PM   #663
Autumn
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Day two so far

RA votes Dzilla 568
jackal votes saldana 594
grammaticus votes dzilla 599
lathum votes dubb 601
saldana votes mauboy 602
mauboy votes dubb 611
commo votes dzilla 612
danny votes autumn 634
Narcizo votes mckerney 645
zinto votes jackal 654
dubb votes lathum 660


dzilla - RA, grammaticus, commo
saldana - jackal
dubb - lathum, mauboy
mauboy - saldana
autumn - danny
mckerney - narcizo
jackal - zinto
lathum - dubb
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:09 PM   #664
Autumn
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this spread is pretty insane right now. Of those who have a vote the only ones on my list of suspects for the day are Mckerney and Jackal, so I guess I'll be voting one of those rather than spread things further.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:13 PM   #665
Autumn
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I'm more intent on those who voted after Bhlloy's reveal elsewhere, so I guess I prefer mckerney right now over Jackal. If Jackal's bad it makes it seem that Mauboy's bad, which seems a completely different can of worms than NTN, who we at least can be sure of.

vote mckerney
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:20 PM   #666
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
This stretch of voting is also interesting. Danny is the first to kind of push NTN out there as a non-bhlloy option after the reveal. Which would be a point where the wolves would need to gear into action.

danny votes ntn 297
CF unvotes mauboy 306
CF votes J23 306
Lahtum unvotes danny 310
lathum votes J23 310
commo unvotes bhlloy 318
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329
mckerney votes mauboy 329
commo votes ntn 334
J23 unvotes bhlloy 352
J23 votes mauboy 354
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357
bhlloy votes ntn 357

CF, Lathum, Mckerney, J23 all continue to go elsewhere than NTN. Danny and Commo look good for their votes here.

I would look among those four above, or based on that earlier series of voting, possibly look at EF or Jackal.

Autumn, you left out the blob at the end where I announce I want to vote for ntn if someone else wants to vote there. Raiders does (still not sure if was because I said that) and so I vote ntn, which tips ntn back to the win.

You forgot yourself who voted ntn only after ntn was winning. Granted I personally think there was a very LIKELY double vote potential there so I thought your vote wasn't that suspicious. Just your responses were a bit weak like "Ohhhhh if I HAAAAAAAAAAAAVE toooooo"
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:24 PM   #667
Autumn
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Autumn, you left out the blob at the end where I announce I want to vote for ntn if someone else wants to vote there. Raiders does (still not sure if was because I said that) and so I vote ntn, which tips ntn back to the win.

You forgot yourself who voted ntn only after ntn was winning. Granted I personally think there was a very LIKELY double vote potential there so I thought your vote wasn't that suspicious. Just your responses were a bit weak like "Ohhhhh if I HAAAAAAAAAAAAVE toooooo"

I left out a lot yeah. As I said earlier I'm more interested in the part directly after the reveal, where it's still up in the air. Once NTN had a lot of votes i think wolves tend to just stick to where they are, or even vote NTN. But in the very beginning is where they can try to steer things.

You're right that that list of suspects then needs a broader context. I just haven't had time to look into that.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:24 PM   #668
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Does the fact there was a kill last night suggest there was not a conversion?

Also keep in mind there was a lot of late movement. If there was a convert the wolves may have had that order in prior to knowing who was going to be lynched.


Highly doubtful when there is a 2 AM night deadline.

Well at least they MAY have had a lynch order in early but surely ONE of them were still around to change it and just decided not to.

I can definitely understand not CONVERTING bhlloy as we'd obviously kill him or convert him right back.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:27 PM   #669
SnDvls
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VOTE DZILLA77
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:32 PM   #670
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My radar normally has people who I don't think have contributed much the day before on it for the first few days. :shurg:

I'm not getting Danny's beef with Autumn - seems that he's been talking sense to me so far. Given lack of presence and dodgy voting record I'm going to

Vote Mckerney

Admittedly, I hate the first few days of werewolf because voting people off randomly seems so...mean
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:41 PM   #671
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I'd love to think that it's wolf-wolf but the pessimist in me just can't see us being that lucky.

Unsurprisingly I'm drawn to looking at the people who kept/have been keeping a low profile. I realise that it's pretty passť to think that wolves are going to keep under the radar because they're wolves and people are going to try and be themselves whatever they are but in a game this size it's going to be very easy for people to glide along without having to contribute - people like Zinto, mckerney, Bug and EagleFan.


I wouldn't disagree here. I said last night that I wouldn't be surprised if a wolf was on a single. Zinto had basically 4 posts yesterday.

Bug though was already on my radar. SUre his vote on me was a funny little revenge joke for 2 games ago. But that's a typical excuse to hide behind as a wolf and he never moved it.

I know a bug vote won't go anywhere today however.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:46 PM   #672
CrimsonFox
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I think it's also possible that their night action has a % chance to convert, and if that fails, kills. We've seen that in other games. So a kill may just mean a failed conversion. But I think in this game it's also possible there's a possibility of both in one night.

I actually really like this theory. The percent chance thing. Could be both but that is a plausible alternative.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:52 PM   #673
CrimsonFox
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Who is on this list? Mckerney? RA? I might look here for my vote as well as I think there is a decent chance the other wolf(ves) are staying under the radar.


No F-ing way Raiders was a wolf yesterday.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:55 PM   #674
CrimsonFox
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well saldana and dubb did themselves no favors yesterday and somewhat continue that trend today.

I do kinda agree with the autumn thing too.

for now,

vote saldana
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:57 PM   #675
Lathum
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So you agree I wouldn't do that as a wolf yet vote me? Any reason you want to lynch villagers?

actually I was agreeing that you would most certainly throw another wolf under the bus D1
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:58 PM   #676
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Any reason you want to lynch villagers?

I don't want to lynch villagers, It is much more fun to have them at night as a snack.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:06 PM   #677
hoopsguy
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What is the case on mckerney, other than casting a later vote yesterday?
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:12 PM   #678
Autumn
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I do kinda agree with the autumn thing too.

When do you not agree with the autumn thing?
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:13 PM   #679
Autumn
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What is the case on mckerney, other than casting a later vote yesterday?

My case is that he's one of the votes that came after bhlloy revealed, that wasn't on NTN. His was a key vote to push Mauboy up into contention instead. I haven't had time to look at what else he's been up to.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:14 PM   #680
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No F-ing way Raiders was a wolf yesterday.

Didn't say he was, just naming players who are under the radar.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:15 PM   #681
dubb93
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actually I was agreeing that you would most certainly throw another wolf under the bus D1

Again you lose me here. Hoops was actually arguing for people to not vote me since I did NOT throw NtN under the bus. You seem to agree with this and do exactly the opposite of what the arguer intended.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:15 PM   #682
Danny
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When do you not agree with the autumn thing?

haha
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:16 PM   #683
Danny
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Ties means everyone gets lynched, so everyone simply spread their votes to make sure a vote is on every player except me, and we win!
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:17 PM   #684
Danny
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Unvote Autumn
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:18 PM   #685
Danny
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Autumn is too helpful of a villager for me to vote him now without much of a reason. I still have my eye on him though
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:19 PM   #686
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Didn't say he was, just naming players who are under the radar.


well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:20 PM   #687
CrimsonFox
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When do you not agree with the autumn thing?


if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:20 PM   #688
Danny
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well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.

Yeah, he was probably not a wolf then, could be one now or soon though.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:20 PM   #689
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Again you lose me here. Hoops was actually arguing for people to not vote me since I did NOT throw NtN under the bus. You seem to agree with this and do exactly the opposite of what the arguer intended.

I think the idea of voting for you, based on making an obvious/open wolf play, is not well conceived. Those who have played enough games for you just can't really see you posting in that way. If it did end up being some kind of double-move, counting on your rep, then you've gone a level deeper than I'm willing to play.

I potentially could be talked into voting Saldana in this spot, but that probably isn't where I would want to go if I had more time to digest posts. If he has the luxury of time (not always the case) he can be a pretty devious wolf as well. Transparent save attempts just don't seem all that likely to me.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:20 PM   #690
Danny
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if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?

If you don't vote Autumn then I will have to vote you.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:21 PM   #691
Danny
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I think the idea of voting for you, based on making an obvious/open wolf play, is not well conceived. Those who have played enough games for you just can't really see you posting in that way. If it did end up being some kind of double-move, counting on your rep, then you've gone a level deeper than I'm willing to play.

I potentially could be talked into voting Saldana in this spot, but that probably isn't where I would want to go if I had more time to digest posts. If he has the luxury of time (not always the case) he can be a pretty devious wolf as well. Transparent save attempts just don't seem all that likely to me.

Well said, and I agree.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:22 PM   #692
CrimsonFox
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Here we are I think:

dzilla 4 - raiders (568) grammaticus (599) Commo (612) SnDvls (669)
saldana 3 - jackal (594) eaglefan (662) crimsonfox (674)
dubb 2 - Lathum (601) mauboy (611)
mauboy 1 - saldana (602)
mckerney 2 - narcizo (645) autumn (665)
jackal 1 - zinto (654)
lathum 1 - dubb (660)


unvotes:
autumn - danny (684)
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:22 PM   #693
hoopsguy
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My case is that he's one of the votes that came after bhlloy revealed, that wasn't on NTN. His was a key vote to push Mauboy up into contention instead. I haven't had time to look at what else he's been up to.

OK, for today I'm willing to be somewhat easily swayed. I'll likely change this if I do end up with time later in the evening to do some meaningful post diving, but in the event that doesn't happen I do need to get a vote down ...

VOTE MCKERNEY
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:22 PM   #694
Danny
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BTW, my package including Star Trek: Fleet Captains just came and I am super psyched to play. The game looks awesome. But I have no one to play with until tomorrow as my wife has plans tonight .
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:23 PM   #695
Autumn
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well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.

Weird? In my experience that happens to about a half a dozen people per game. This game was actually unusual for everyone showing up!
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:23 PM   #696
Danny
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Looking at the list, I didn't realize Mr. Bug was playing either. sndvls is a little under the radar as well.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:24 PM   #697
Autumn
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if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?

Sorry, I'm just vanilla, I can't convert wolves back ;-)
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:25 PM   #698
Zinto
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Well looks like my vote on Jackal has gained no traction so...

Unvote Jackal
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:26 PM   #699
CrimsonFox
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If you don't vote Autumn then I will have to vote you.

touche
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:27 PM   #700
SnDvls
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Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
Here we are I think:

dzilla 4 - raiders (568) grammaticus (599) Commo (612) SnDvls (669)
saldana 3 - jackal (594) eaglefan (662) crimsonfox (674)
dubb 2 - Lathum (601) mauboy (611)
mauboy 1 - saldana (602)
mckerney 3 - narcizo (645) autumn (665), hoops (693)
jackal 1 - zinto (654)
lathum 1 - dubb (660)


unvotes:
autumn - danny (684)

updated w/ hoops in post 693, but I have/had the same FYI
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