Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, when we can talk about it at the end of the game I'm going to be very curious why you used the Ring to create a tie for Raiders but would not move your vote.

Unless you had acquired the Ring after that time - but I'm guessing that would not be an item that would move.

Also, I wish I had started moving on Eagles today. If you had used the Ring to back it then we would have had a better chance of seeing how people responded to the late movement. Damn it - I'm doing a lot of second guessing here and it isn't terribly productive.

[hoopsguy]

Wednesday, would you be willing to share your items/actions from the first few nights as a show of good faith to clear yourself from suspicion?

[Eaglesfan27]

Alright here are my thoughts about people left:

kingfc22 - No strong evidence in his voting patterns, but he has been suspiciously quiet. Is he a wolf hiding in the silence? I have a low-moderate index of suspicion now.

sundvls - I've had suspicions about him at several points, but he has remained so quiet and they have faded away at times. However, my index of suspicion is even higher on him now. No real telling evidence in his voting pattern except for him waiting until late to vote for Digamma. Also, I found his voting pattern on day 4 most peculiar. He is high on my index of suspicion.

Coffee Warlord - He appears to have made several helpful posts. He voted for RealDeal like myself, however in retrospect, I think myself, Schmidty, and CW all voted for RealDeal just because he was SO annoying. He is low to moderate on my index of suspicion.

hoopsguy - I think he is high on everyone's "circle of trust." However, that would have made him the perfect convert last night. He started the bandwagon for Schmidty. Now he seems to be setting up a potential bandwagon on me. Obviously, my index of suspicion is high from an emotional standpoint. However, from a logical standpoint I think he is unlikely to be a wolf and we need to get a wolf.

Mr. W - He has voted early against me and primarily for that reason my index of suspicion is moderate. However, my index of suspicion is a bit higher than that because he waited until it was clearly decided to vote for Digamma. Perhaps, he wanted to see if there was any chance to save him?

Mr. Bug - Has been suspicious quiet at multiple points throughout the game. He also didn't vote today. Voted for Vince who lated proved to be a villager. My index of suspicion for him is moderate to high.

Superman - Has had a few odd votes. Keeps slipping under the radar. My suspicion for him is moderate to high at this point, but I wonder if it should be higher.


Ardent Enthusiast - I just trust him. There are several posts out there that make me trust him. However, I think he is high in most people's circle of trust and might be a good candidate for conversion as well.


I know I don't have any proof that I'm a villager. However, I am. You would be repeating a mistake that killed Schmidty if you vote for me just because I let my emotions get the better of me and vote for RealDeal.


Final Ranking of most likely to be a wolf:


SnDvls


Mr. Bug
Mr. W
Superman



Kingfc
Coffee Warlord


Hoopsguy
AE


So that is my 4 groupings with Sndvls most likely getting my vote tomorrow unless new evidence comes out.

I just hope I don't get eaten now.

[hoopsguy]

I would really love for tomorrow to be a no-holds barred brawl between a bunch of us about who is the wolf. These days where it is quiet the whole time end up leading to mid-to-late bandwagons with relatively flimsy evidence.

If someone has hard evidence tomorrow I would like to have it out there early. I think tomorrow may be the last day that we can do a one-for-one trade with the wolves/villagers and get away with it. If not, then I would hope that people come strong with their opinions so we can start getting people to take a position.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Ardent Enthusiast - I just trust him. There are several posts out there that make me trust him. However, I think he is high in most people's circle of trust and might be a good candidate for conversion as well.

Final Ranking of most likely to be a wolf:

SnDvls

Mr. Bug
Mr. W
Superman

Kingfc
Coffee Warlord

Hoopsguy
AE

Finally, someone who makes sense. I'm actually quite surprised the wolves haven't tried to kill me or convert me, since I thought everyone knew I was a villager.

[kingfc22]

Tomorrow is HUGE. We must get a bad guy.

Did Peregrine ever answer the question of whether or not the sorcerers can talk to each other if there are currently 2 in the game? If not, I think it would make more sense for the formerly lone wolf to create another wolf so they could talk back and forth with each other and not accidentally have the sorcerer vote off the wolf.

[hoopsguy]

King, he answered that they can talk to each other - see post #1397.

The question isn't what the wolf should have done - it is what he did do. Last night he would have been acting alone. Would he have thought this through?

Of course, he would have had another wolf to talk to over the weekend. And the book would have had to get to the sorcerer if they wanted the sorcerer to transform into a wolf. But if they passed silver to the villager they were killing on the night they killed him then a pass would never had needed to take place.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Final Ranking of most likely to be a wolf:


SnDvls


Mr. Bug
Mr. W
Superman



Kingfc
Coffee Warlord


Hoopsguy
AE

That's funny.

Where would you rank yourself if you were an outsider?

I would think after Mr.W cleared me that I'd be a little lower. I know that was two nights ago, but still I haven't strayed from my vote or feelings.

As far as the item goes hoops, I didn't say it would help the group I said I was a target and it would help me. Not gonna say much more to give away what I have, but there you go.

[hoopsguy]

Perusing the items there are several picks you could make that would help you. Just wish that if you did have 3 silver that you had made another choice - or kept saving to where the prizes really add up ... would kill for a Ledger right about now.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Perusing the items there are several picks you could make that would help you. Just wish that if you did have 3 silver that you had made another choice - or kept saving to where the prizes really add up ... would kill for a Ledger right about now.

trust me I would have liked to save them up, but the tide was turning towards me and quick and I had to react. Looks like I might need to pass it tonight though. Any takers?

[SnDvls]

dola

I decided to pass this item to someone I trust, you can bet it's not Superman or EaglesFan. Hope this person isn't a converted or we'll be doomed!!

[SnDvls]

double dola

whatever happened to passing silver to a trusted one three nights ago?

[Poli]

Pass the silver to me. All of it, the wolf is too dumb to kill me.

[hoopsguy]

No one seemed to get on board with the idea of pooling silver - which that it had generated a little more momentum at the time. I think it would have been a challenge to come up with parameters that were somewhat agreeable to the masses, but would have liked to see some effort in this direction.

I think that this is one of the lessons learned for the villagers for next time around. We can make the game very easy or very hard early on if we can come up with an approach for pooling silver that doesn't put an absolute target on one man for the wolves that night.

[Poli]

Let me put it this way, there's no way the wolf (ves) can get me tonight.

[kingfc22]

I guess AE is claiming the Holy Water.

[Poli]

Actually, I'm claiming:

Dagger of the Hunter (4) – [Dagger] The owner of a Dagger can not be eaten by the wolves. Instead he defends himself with the dagger leaving a scar on the hand of one of the wolves (determined randomly). The next day the village learns that one of the wolves had been wounded. Wolves heal fast, however, and the scar is not visible to the naked eye.

[hoopsguy]

By the way, I used the Robe today to communicate with Coffee Warlord. Thought that some people might be interested in our conversations. Lets discuss amongst ourselves ...

Note: timestamps are updated
From me to Coffee 7:59AM
What are thoughts on kill and book? I'm very interested in your rundown on players - posted many of my thoughts last night but the reading from the book scrambles them a little bit, depending on how wolves may have moved

From me to Coffee: 8:08AM
Will be out 4-5 hours this morning, don't want to post on board that I'm gone for that block of time to avoid someone trying to start a bandwagon when not around to defend myself.

From Coffee to me: 8:55AM
Hi. Will be in and out today, but will respond when I can.

From Coffee to me: 9:07AM
Let's focus on the possible wolves. Thinks it is FAR easier to grab wolf who started game. What do you think about kingfc, super, MrW? Almost positive doggy is one of these three. Referred to this group as 'sleeper cell' - King and Super with some weird votes. Any insights?
Sorceror/Wolf - who knows. Probably someone either very loud or very quiet, most likely the latter

From me to Coffee 9:40AM
Agree on 1st wolf as priority. I would have gone 2 sorceror route if it was me. The sorcerors could talk to each other (Note: posted this question on board after this exchange with Coffee, and Peregrine verified this as true) and avoid voting for each other. Could spread votes or join together to defend if required. Fewer villagers to catch the wolf.
If only one wolf, he brings home the silver for the group with his night kills. Have to get rid of him. Two wolves would be, I think, a tactical error.
How confident are you that AE is good guy?
Posted thoughts on Super earlier - would be very ballsy for wolf to break the tie on other wolf. Mr. Wednesday says SunDvls is villager, but what is this really worth? If he is a wolf he knows exactly who villagers are. Nice way to attract an ally

From Coffee to me 9:53AM
AE, I'm almost positive, WAS a villager. Don't know if he still is. As you (Hoops) said, he is a decent candidate for conversion.
See your point on 2 sorcerors, although recall that sorcs don't know who converted them. Could keep each other alive, but don't know for sure who is wolf. Not as advantageous for talking dogs.

From Coffee to me 2:00PM
AE is acting ... odd. Again. Knows I sent hammer to him, AE sent hammer back - why is he asking these questions on board?

From Me to Coffee 2:33PM
I was curious about your level of faith in him. Didn't really place much trust in you two being coupled together, but didn't want to piss off too many people at same time last night. But I don't think he is original wolf. And I don't care too much about sorceror for today's vote. Would be fine lucking into a sorceror today, but want the wolf.
General question with a motive behind it: what is your normal behavior when you are going to post in the WW threads? Here is an example:
1.) Open thread, starting with most recent post
2.) Work way up to last message not read
3.) Read all messages sequentially
4.) Sometimes review messages from earlier in thread to support/diminish theory of the moment
5.) Post thoughts
How different is your routine?

2nd half coming up ....

[Poli]

I just hope you guys trust me. Get me the silver, I'll buy the Lance.

[hoopsguy]

From Coffee to me 4:24PM
The more AE posts, the less I trust him. He knows that we passed hammer, destroyed mask, etc. Stated I would get more stuff, blah blah blah. Quasi-threatening posts in my direction. Goofy votes (kingfc) - wonder if he got converted.
Response to posting practices
1.) Read last couple of posts, looking for anything REALLY weird
2.) Start from where I last read, work down
3.) Look at latest insights again
4.) If there's something I feel I can add/clarify to discussion, do it. Don't post rehashes.

From me to Coffee 4:38PM
Do you ever ignore posts above yours and cast a vote? Because that is what Schmidty did when he voted for RealDeal - check the post and timestamps. 16 minutes between last post and his. 3-4 votes for Raiders in front of him as evidence was there to be read

From Coffee to me 4:42PM
Ignore? No, especially if it is last few messages in thread. Can't say I haven't missed posts, but flat out not pay attention to what is directly above you? Nuh uh.
Not sure I agree with Schmidty not being a wolf though. No evidence to back it up, just a gut feeling this time.

From me to Coffee 5:09PM
Not sure I do either. Clearly a guess at this point. But no one is coming forth with anything, which is frustrating and makes the game a heck of a lot harder.

From me to Coffee 7:49PM
Bummed that Schmidty was not wolf. Don't understand his voting patterns at all - which is fine. Not like he owes me an explanation, but it makes it harder to play the game when you can't think like your unknown allies.
So you and AE have been swapping the hammer? Did he pass it to you initially or did he view you with the item? Any idea why he didn't stick with the hammer when you passed it to him?

From Coffee to me 8:21PM
Schmidty was real quiet the whole game - think he was distracted/not fully into this one. Which is why gut said villager.
Full swing of hammer:
Night 1: received hammer from someone. AE claimed he viewed me, learned about it. No reason to doubt. Had it for a couple of days, low profile while waiting for good stuff to destroy. Mask was blown up, nothing else passed afterwards. So shipped it to AE, who sent it right back to me. Not sure what to do with it now, would like to clear out inventory to get one-shot seer item.

From me to Coffee 8:37PM
Always possible AE didn't want to have hammer so he could get silver. Pass of mask was to build trust. Of course, I could flip scenario around and suggest you are the wolf here. I'm stuck in situation of having to pick someone to trust, but don't know who to trust right at moment.
How close are you to one-shot seer item? I'm probably passing Robe to get silver as well. Would ideally like to pass it to a wolf to slow them down on accumulating silver. Who are you planning to pass to tonight?

From Coffee to me 8:44PM
Works both ways of course - beauty of game is the endless spin of bullshit to make everyone look guilty. Not much I can do to ease your suspicion - have been completely honest, that's about all I can do.
Have one silver, so if no pass will be able to get seer item (costs 2 I think, have to look this up). No clue where hammer is going. Leaning towards MrW as a safe bet.

From me to Coffee 8:53PM
Pendant is 3. So would need two more days of no-pass to buy, then one more day to activate. Don't think this is value play at this point.
Don't let me talk you out of move you want to make. I wish you had 3 silver right now so you could buy tonight and activate tomorrow. That would be huge for villagers.
Best news of day is that sorcerors can't overwhelm the villagers with the wolves. So we have a little more breathing room. But if we don't get a wolf tomorrow then I think the next Book read by wolves would be to convert an existing sorceror.

[kingfc22]

Eagles, did you pass AE the dagger?

[Poli]

Someone passed it to me a few days back. I've been taunting the wolf(ves) ever since.

[hoopsguy]

So, I'm hoping people will read my conversations with Coffee and come to their own assumptions about our relative innocence/guilt as well as take note of who we discussed. I don't know if there is a smoking gun in here, but figured people can use this on top of our other limited info to make their decisions.

Coffee, sorry if you feel outed somehow here. But I didn't have anything new to add privately and felt like we could use this to provide some additional context for people around us.

[Poli]

Sorry if I made you question me, Warlord. I didn't get an item from you today. I had to test your honesty.

[Poli]

Ahem, send me your silver.

[hoopsguy]

Time for the "will I or won't I pass it strategy" to begin. Sun and AE both claim to have items that thwart wolves - hold them as deterrants to night attacks or pass them to (hopefully?) allies? This is a good part of this game.

On a pass, the villager has a better than 50% chance of moving his item to a villager. But not much better anymore, if there are three enemies now.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, I'm hoping people will read my conversations with Coffee and come to their own assumptions about our relative innocence/guilt as well as take note of who we discussed. I don't know if there is a smoking gun in here, but figured people can use this on top of our other limited info to make their decisions.

Coffee, sorry if you feel outed somehow here. But I didn't have anything new to add privately and felt like we could use this to provide some additional context for people around us.

Moderately irritated that you didn't at least ask/mention you were gonna do it after our conversation was concluded, but no big deal. If it helps stimulate some conversation, all's well and good.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Ahem, send me your silver.

I want to know who keeps getting the "random" silver off the dead bodies from the lynch. I haven't gotten one. If the wolves got some they are sitting pretty now.

I did pass the item once the deadline passes I'll say who and what it was.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Time for the "will I or won't I pass it strategy" to begin. Sun and AE both claim to have items that thwart wolves - hold them as deterrants to night attacks or pass them to (hopefully?) allies? This is a good part of this game.

On a pass, the villager has a better than 50% chance of moving his item to a villager. But not much better anymore, if there are three enemies now.

I must have missed it, what does Sun have or claim to have?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I want to know who keeps getting the "random" silver off the dead bodies from the lynch. I haven't gotten one. If the wolves got some they are sitting pretty now.

I did pass the item once the deadline passes I'll say who and what it was.

I have received one random silver since the start.

[SnDvls]

how many hours till the deadline....one?

[hoopsguy]

Here is my case for Coffee as a wolf. Not sure I buy it, but if I was making the case it would include:
1.) Very frequent lurker early in werewolf game without posting
2.) Relatively low profile early in game
3.) Destroyed mask early in game to build credibility
4.) Joined the RealDeal bandwagon (4th one on him) - was not on later to switch before deadline
5.) Gut instinct on Schmidty as a villager - cast vote for another person

The weird one on the list is #5. Why condemn him for not voting for a villager? If I was a wolf talking to a villager and wanted to look innocent, would I pile on the bandwagon? Or would I cast a vote somewhere else, say that I agree with your logic, but worry that you might be wrong and I'm just hedging a bet? Raiders used this tactic a couple of times as a wolf on early votes - "something doesn't feel right" sounds pretty similar to how Coffee positioned himself here.

6.) Is positioning himself to get an item that isn't likely to help - if he is a wolf he probably isn't going to tell me he is eating my liver with fava beans and chiante, plus taking my silver and item. He will make up a story, but this one may not have been well conceived.
7.) Took some time responding to my question about reading the thread and posting - I wasn't online at the time to watch his online activity or see if he was in PMs during this time. But I would have trusted the response more if it came immediately back instead of coming back 90 minutes later. That seems a little measured. Of course, the obvious defense here is that we are at work during the day and not sitting around to play werewolf.

Note that I'm using the term 'wolf' to cover both wolf and sorceror in the context of my potential suspicion of Coffee. Does the above scenario pass the smell test for people? Comments?

[hoopsguy]

I have never gotten a random silver piece. Sucks to be me

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note that I'm using the term 'wolf' to cover both wolf and sorceror in the context of my potential suspicion of Coffee. Does the above scenario pass the smell test for people? Comments?

It's hard for me not to trust the Warlord, honestly.

[hoopsguy]

In our PMs it doesn't appear he felt the same way about you, AE. But it is entirely possible he was looking to flush me out on a guy he trusted to determine my trustworthiness.

King, why did you think that Eagles passed AE the dagger? Did you pass it to him at some point in time? Not sure what it will prove, as the dagger doesn't protect either a wolf or a sorcerer from a wolf attack or a conversion via the Book. Just stinks if it has been floating around the whole game and the wolves never ran into it.

King, if you did pass him the dagger, why Eagles? Eagles, if you did pass it to AE then what night did you move it to him? And why?

If there isn't a chain of passing from the start of the game, then this item would have been an expensive one to purchase.

[Poli]

I got it on, umm, the 2nd or 3rd day.

[Poli]

To clarify, I got it the day after I was passed the Mask. So, instead of getting something to destroy, I was passed a dagger to protect me for the day. As is, it's protected me ever since then.

[kingfc22]

I passed it to Eagles on the first night as I opened the game with it. I played the previous mafia WW game with Eagles and I know he was a good WW player and thought he would benefit from such a strong item.

[hoopsguy]

King, why pass such a strong item on the first night?
Eagles, why pass such a strong item on the second night?
AE, congrats on possessing such a strong item. Wish the wolves had found you appetizing at least once in the last few nights.

[Poli]

Me too. Pass the silver. I can get that Lance with 5 more silver.

[Poli]

I don't think I ever heard what item sndvls owns.

[hoopsguy]

He hasn't confirmed it, but he had at least 3 silver to spend if his earlier posts are accurate. And he indicated that it might not benefit the village as a whole, but would benefit him. But no specific item listed that I saw.

[SnDvls]

6 mins you will know hoops

[SnDvls]

oops 2 mins

[SnDvls]

time's up right?

[SnDvls]

here you go enjoy

since time is up on the deadline for the wolves.

hoops I bought the coat of arms and passed it to you tonight

[hoopsguy]

I'll confirm or deny this tomorrow morning, SnDvls.

If this is the case, it would be an odd expediture for a wolf/sorcerer. At first blush it would strongly place SnDvls in my circle of trust (just to continue to beat this term to death).

[Coffee Warlord]

1.) Very frequent lurker early in werewolf game without posting

During the day, I sit online/and often on the thread whilst at work doing *gasp* work. Very simple.

2.) Relatively low profile early in game

Two things. Hammer. Had it, and it was useful early. And, even more simply, this is the third game of werewolf I've played, and I died in 2 days both times. I decided to be a little more laid back so I could try and stay alive further in.

3.) Destroyed mask early in game to build credibility

Had I been a wolf, I likely would have kept the mask and killed AE. Mask is a very useful item, even moreso early in the game.

4.) Joined the RealDeal bandwagon (4th one on him) - was not on later to switch before deadline.

As I believe I stated in the thread, last week evenings I was mostly not here. Went out drinking several times, the folks were in town this weekend.

5.) Gut instinct on Schmidty as a villager - cast vote for another person

The weird one on the list is #5. Why condemn him for not voting for a villager? If I was a wolf talking to a villager and wanted to look innocent, would I pile on the bandwagon? Or would I cast a vote somewhere else, say that I agree with your logic, but worry that you might be wrong and I'm just hedging a bet? Raiders used this tactic a couple of times as a wolf on early votes - "something doesn't feel right" sounds pretty similar to how Coffee positioned himself here.

Don't know what to tell you here. You're reaching. A lot.

6.) Is positioning himself to get an item that isn't likely to help - if he is a wolf he probably isn't going to tell me he is eating my liver with fava beans and chiante, plus taking my silver and item. He will make up a story, but this one may not have been well conceived.

Well, I'm sorry you don't feel that trying to get some more Seer items out there will aid us. Considering we're running out of villagers, I am of the opinion that buying one of those will either 1) spot a wolf or 2) clear SOMEONE once and for all.

7.) Took some time responding to my question about reading the thread and posting - I wasn't online at the time to watch his online activity or see if he was in PMs during this time. But I would have trusted the response more if it came immediately back instead of coming back 90 minutes later. That seems a little measured. Of course, the obvious defense here is that we are at work during the day and not sitting around to play werewolf.

And surprise surprise, I had a conference call at three that lasted until four.

Don't know what else to say. Either ya'll believe me or you don't.

[kingfc22]

I want to know who died.

Peregrine. Paging Peregrine to this thread.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll confirm or deny this tomorrow morning, SnDvls.

If this is the case, it would be an odd expediture for a wolf/sorcerer. At first blush it would strongly place SnDvls in my circle of trust (just to continue to beat this term to death).

like I said if you look at the day I bought it, there were several people who had pegged me as a wolf so out of self preservation I bought it. You'll see it tomorrow and know I was who I was.