Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Okay, if my previous suggestion has been passed on (I'd still like everyone to at least chip in with what they think), then I reckon that today we should test one of the prime suspects who are being banded about, my preference would be one from Barkeep (to still go back and try to confirm Quik's death, I do notice that he hasn't been swearing etc. lately), JeeberD or Blade. Others may want to go after RA or whomever. Then at night Coffee Warlord has another viewing, in the morning reports his viewing, and we test him to confrim/deny veracity.

I am setting up the VOTE BLADE headquarters at the local mattress store. Volunteers are needed.

- He voted for dubb
- When saldana was being voted on, he tried real hard to get us to vote for BK
- He's been playing way out of character: Normally he's very logical and rigorous, but this game he's been weird.

[st.cronin]

I assume WVU is clean - his absence from the game the last couple of days tells me he's not a Thing. The other Thing could have pmed him to get his attention.

[Raiders Army]

There is the possibility that he was playing the UTR role.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

There is the possibility that he was playing the UTR role.

What does that mean?

[Coffee Warlord]

Under The Radar.

In this case, way way WAY under the radar.

[Raiders Army]

Under the Radar role. He was just maintaining a low profile to avoid suspicion.

[WVUFAN]

One of the reasons I'm posting so much, in addition to trying to be more active in the game that I've been out of for a few days, it to eliminate the "Under the Radar" thing I've gotten over the last few days. So I'm trying to be a blabbermouth on purpose. :-)

[st.cronin]

I think missing two votes would be taking that too far. That's what I'm talking about - not the lack of activity, the lack of VOTES.

[Swaggs]

Wow... Interesting turn of events since I checked off.

Although I'm not so certain it was the best time to reveal it, I believe that CW probably is the seer. I cannot see much of a point in voting for him. If he is the seer and is then cleared through testing, we lose any chance at picking someone off and then it immediately turns into night action.

Hopefully there is a bodyguard, witness, or someone that can protect and/or identify him at night, or else he is probably not of much use again unless someone can vouch for him.

[Raiders Army]

IMHO, this was a perfect game to play UTR. Things don't want to be found. Things don't want to be tested. That's why I had some hesitation voting for Blade. What I'm sure of are that some of his actions are not consistent with some of the previous games (post count especially). To be more clear, he was pretty defensive when I came out with a list of people whom I considered to be suspicious based on vote counts; however, I find his reactive nature to be consistent with his previous games...but he has not welcomed getting tested. I welcome you to test me, but you will lose a day of testing and possibly another one of us to conversion. That was saldana's mistake early on when he tried to backtrack and say that he was used to the other games and (temporarily) thought that a vote was certain death.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I believe that CW probably is the seer. I cannot see much of a point in voting for him. If he is the seer and is then cleared through testing, we lose any chance at picking someone off and then it immediately turns into night action.

I think he's the Seer too. I just think he was converted early (maybe a lucky break by the Things). I know the justification that Coffee said earlier, but I just feel that since Coffee is, IMO, a very, very good player, and this sounds like a good strategy. As it stands right now, most of you feel Coffee is safe. This is one of those games where NO ONE should ever be considered safe. But most of you are defending him. That's a dangerous thing in this game.

So, you can potentially waste a vote on someone else, or eliminate the chance, at least this round, that Coffee isn't playing all of you. That seems not, at least to me, to be a wasted vote. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but all of you should at least be considering Coffee as a suspect, and if you're not, you should be wondering if you're playing right into the Things' plans.

That's my .02 cents.

[WVUFAN]

dola -- After reading my last post, I need to lay off the commas so much.

[st.cronin]

lol @ the contrast between post 760 and 761

[path12]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

IMHO, this was a perfect game to play UTR. Things don't want to be found. Things don't want to be tested. That's why I had some hesitation voting for Blade. What I'm sure of are that some of his actions are not consistent with some of the previous games (post count especially). To be more clear, he was pretty defensive when I came out with a list of people whom I considered to be suspicious based on vote counts; however, I find his reactive nature to be consistent with his previous games...but he has not welcomed getting tested. I welcome you to test me, but you will lose a day of testing and possibly another one of us to conversion. That was saldana's mistake early on when he tried to backtrack and say that he was used to the other games and (temporarily) thought that a vote was certain death.

I don't know where I'm going yet, but UTR is not a strategy that Blade can use. His style is too well known to play that successfully IMO.

[Raiders Army]

eh?

I'm logging off for a little bit. I'll be back around later to see what happens. This has gotten very interesting.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy and we could unofficially vote for who to view at night. I am sure that there are some downsides to this idea, namely that that we only get one chance to discover a Thing rather than two, but it would be one confirmed chance as opposed with a guarenteed GG as opposed to one chance, another suspect reported chance and no confirmed GGs. What does everyone else think?

Okay, please ignore this plan, it's a load of crap. I've just some some figuring out with a good ol' piece of paper and pen and the time between finding a thingt and killing it has just too long a turnaround for it to be profitable. The Things would be converting quiker than we could kill them, unless Coffee hit a Thing for 3 or so consecutive nights, which just isn't likely. It looks like we'll have to go back to traditional WW flying by the seat of your pants instinct.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't know where I'm going yet, but UTR is not a strategy that Blade can use. His style is too well known to play that successfully IMO.

The post count prior to day 2 was pretty low for him which would've been UTR for him.

[tanglewood]

My rather simple question is if Coffee isn't the seer, then why hasn't the real one stepped forward? Open question: Say that you were the seer and someone fake reveals as the seer, how would you play it? Assume that there are multiple seers? Counter-reveal and argue against them? Let it go and come back to it later?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

I think he's the Seer too. I just think he was converted early (maybe a lucky break by the Things). I know the justification that Coffee said earlier, but I just feel that since Coffee is, IMO, a very, very good player, and this sounds like a good strategy. As it stands right now, most of you feel Coffee is safe. This is one of those games where NO ONE should ever be considered safe. But most of you are defending him. That's a dangerous thing in this game.

So, you can potentially waste a vote on someone else, or eliminate the chance, at least this round, that Coffee isn't playing all of you. That seems not, at least to me, to be a wasted vote. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but all of you should at least be considering Coffee as a suspect, and if you're not, you should be wondering if you're playing right into the Things' plans.

That's my .02 cents.

I just think it is too big of a risk on his part for it not to be true. He is naming two people as safe with the possibility of being proven (or accused of being) wrong if there is a witness or bodyguard or something. I may be articulating this poorly, but my main point is that once he names names, if he is lying, he is risking a whole lot. It could be a great Thing move, but since he was seemingly under no danger, I just don't see a good reason to make that type of play, other than to keep people from voting for RA and ending our chances.

Anyway, I could be way off, but just my two cents.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

The post count prior to day 2 was pretty low for him which would've been UTR for him.

Fair point. But it did bring some suspicion on him, no?

[mckerney]

Unvote Raiders Army
Vote Blade

[path12]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

My rather simple question is if Coffee isn't the seer, then why hasn't the real one stepped forward? Open question: Say that you were the seer and someone fake reveals as the seer, how would you play it? Assume that there are multiple seers? Counter-reveal and argue against them? Let it go and come back to it later?

I believe Coffee is the seer. If it's a fake reveal the real seer should have been out there by now (unless it was Qwik and whoever else died, I forget offhand), and it's too risky at this point for him to assume that the real seer would be dead.

Of course, he could get out there first in order to cast doubt on anyone else who tries to counter, but it rings true to me.

[path12]

I could change this, and I'll try and look back and detail later, but he is pingin' the hell out of my Thing radar:

VOTE HOOPS

[hoopsguy]

Just a quick check - post says deadline is Thursday at 9PM EST. Is this accurate? Do we have another full day before the votes are final?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by path12

I believe Coffee is the seer. If it's a fake reveal the real seer should have been out there by now (unless it was Qwik and whoever else died, I forget offhand), and it's too risky at this point for him to assume that the real seer would be dead.

Of course, he could get out there first in order to cast doubt on anyone else who tries to counter, but it rings true to me.

I also believe that CW is the seer, but there is another alternative to your idea.

The seer could be dead or converted.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The seer could be dead or converted.

This is what I've been saying for the past few hours.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

This is what I've been saying for the past few hours.

Yes. But what would CW's motivation be for making that claim, while he has no heat on him? He would be calling attention to himself for no good reason, other than to pull the vote away from RA. If the Things feel threatened enough to make that type of play, why would they potentially out both of themselves?

Again, it is possible that CW and RA are Things, but it would have been a pretty risky (potentially game-ending) play for CW to lie about this.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Yes. But what would CW's motivation be for making that claim, while he has no heat on him? He would be calling attention to himself for no good reason, other than to pull the vote away from RA. If the Things feel threatened enough to make that type of play, why would they potentially out both of themselves?

Because by clearing a pure scientist (RA), it "proves" he's not a Thing. Sure, it would be suicide to clear a Thing, but if he clears someone who's isn't a Thing, it validates him and does what it's doing right now -- creates defenders. He doesn't have to prove his innocence -- he's got people who are doing it for him, most of whom are scientists too.

Again, it is possible that CW and RA are Things, but it would have been a pretty risky (potentially game-ending) play for CW to lie about this.

But he isn't lying about RA. In most games, that would make him safe. In this game, it makes him dangerous, because people are assuming he's safe.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I also believe that CW is the seer, but there is another alternative to your idea.

The seer could be dead or converted.

That's why I mentioned Quik. It could be that the seer is dead or converted. But they wouldn't necessarily know that so it's still a pretty big risk.

Unless I'm mistaken and if the things convert or kill someone they get knowledge of that person's role?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Yes. But what would CW's motivation be for making that claim, while he has no heat on him? He would be calling attention to himself for no good reason, other than to pull the vote away from RA. If the Things feel threatened enough to make that type of play, why would they potentially out both of themselves?

Again, it is possible that CW and RA are Things, but it would have been a pretty risky (potentially game-ending) play for CW to lie about this.

That's my take as well. If, as posited, CW and RA are both Things, it would have been wiser to hold that strategy until AFTER RA was torched - let things play out a little bit more.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Because by clearing a pure scientist (RA), it "proves" he's not a Thing. Sure, it would be suicide to clear a Thing, but if he clears someone who's isn't a Thing, it validates him and does what it's doing right now -- creates defenders. He doesn't have to prove his innocence -- he's got people who are doing it for him, most of whom are scientists too.



But he isn't lying about RA. In most games, that would make him safe. In this game, it makes him dangerous, because people are assuming he's safe.

The very first thing that was suggested was that we test CW. Before that, there was very little pressure on him. It would be an absolutely savant move to draw attention to yourself when there is none.

[Blade6119]

Ill do what dubb did yesterday since im now basically in the same boat he was yesterday. I placed my vote, i dont intend to swap it, and after this session on the comp im on i will not defend myself anymore. Go ahead and vote for me, im clean and you will waste a day figuring that out. If you have any final questions for me i suggest you ask them in the next little while, becuase after that ill only stop in to see who else raiders can convince

[Blade6119]

Night one convert, raiders...night 2 convert CW...does that make no sense to anyone? Especially if he is the seer and has been converted...it makes sense to me...oh well, have fun apologizing to me tomorrow evening

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I'm making an assumption here that we only have two Things - and remember, one of them was around during the Saldana vote as a Thing.

Do you think they would align themselves this tightly to each other at this stage in the game? If we do end up testing one of them today (and we still have 24 hours of discussion to go) then we have a clear path to the other one and end the game. That does not strike me as optimal strategy for the bad guys.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Please do not edit posts. You should know that Blade.

It said not instead of now, which changes the meaning of the post...it wasnt a vote post, and if you guys really believe im changing incrminating evidence then RA has spun his web perfectly. Test me, please...i want to see how RA spins it when i come up clean

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Night one convert, raiders...night 2 convert CW...does that make no sense to anyone? Especially if he is the seer and has been converted...it makes sense to me...oh well, have fun apologizing to me tomorrow evening

I'm not voting for you, but it does not make sense to me. If I were a Thing, I would not do what CW did by attaching himself to RA in the way that he did.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #784:

JeeberD - Swaggs (660)
Raiders - Dubb (667), Blade (668)
Blade - Coffee (690), Anxiety (696), JeeberD (707), Raiders (710), Cronin (722), mckerney (771)
Coffee - WVUFAN (741)
Hoops - Path (773)

Not Voted: Barkeep, Hoopsguy, Tanglewood

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The very first thing that was suggested was that we test CW.

But he wasn't tested, was he? Last round, he wasn't tested either. And I'll betcha anything he won't be tested this or next round either, due to the number of defenders, such as yourself. So, when WILL he be tested?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, I'm making an assumption here that we only have two Things - and remember, one of them was around during the Saldana vote as a Thing.

Do you think they would align themselves this tightly to each other at this stage in the game? If we do end up testing one of them today (and we still have 24 hours of discussion to go) then we have a clear path to the other one and end the game. That does not strike me as optimal strategy for the bad guys.

RA was going down until that CW made his move it appeared...now both are out of danger...seems a fair play to me, that if even they delay it today and get a 3rd convert thats a plus. Then tomorrow, its certainly not set RA or CW will be tested..they dont claim to know im a thing...makes all the sense in the world to me..RA was on the block, CW came to his rescue. And if you review voting records RA couldnt afford to swap to barkeep with how close it was and the lack of voting at the end...he wouldnt have had a plausible reason, and then would have been suspect#1..

Anyway buddy, make your decision...you know how my personal life is more busy nowadays(UTR my ass, im still top 3 last time i checked)...if you think im bad, vote me. I wont mind, i know who to look at tomorrow night when we waste a scan

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

It said not instead of now, which changes the meaning of the post...it wasnt a vote post, and if you guys really believe im changing incrminating evidence then RA has spun his web perfectly. Test me, please...i want to see how RA spins it when i come up clean

I wasn't implying anything, as I saw the original post; however, next time just quote yourself and fix it in that post.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm not voting for you, but it does not make sense to me. If I were a Thing, I would not do what CW did by attaching himself to RA in the way that he did.

I would, as he saved him...just like WVU said:

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

But he wasn't tested, was he? Last round, he wasn't tested either. And I'll betcha anything he won't be tested this or next round either, due to the number of defenders, such as yourself. So, when WILL he be tested?

He came out, saved a friend(if they are both things), and i dont see him getting tested anytime soon. When i come up clean somehow the group will manage to find a new suspect, and they will get off. The seeds are already sown, and thing or not i applaude them for their play today

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I wasn't implying anything, as I saw the original post; however, next time just quote yourself and fix it in that post.

roger that, thanks for understanding

[hoopsguy]

I'm curious what assumptions people are making at this stage in the game to help dictate their actions. Here are mine:

1.) We started with two Things
2.) Barkeep killed one of them on Night 1 (Qwikshot)
3.) They have converted on each of the first two nights; we are still facing two things (12-2 ratio now)

I haven't yet incorporated Coffee Warlord as a seer into my assumptions, but I'm pretty much in agreement with the skepticism about making this play at this stage in the game. Since I've assumed that Qwikshot was a Thing, he can not have been a seer. So there are no dead scientists. And the real seer would have had the opportunity to refute Coffee. I'm about 90% of the way to making this assumption #4.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

That's my take as well. If, as posited, CW and RA are both Things, it would have been wiser to hold that strategy until AFTER RA was torched - let things play out a little bit more.

I disagree. I believe that RA was the vote today if a "seer" didn't come out. If they are able to get people to buy the fact that CW is a seer this could put the vote for either of them off for days and by that time they would have added 1-2 more converts. Keep in mind that there was a late run on RA yesterday.

As for Blade voting for me yesterday. That is as BS as it can be. He changed his vote late in an attempt to break a tie. If I wasn't outside at the time yesterday the game was probably over with RA's death. Noone that switched around 9 to me should be counted as voting for me. That is slanting it and using it out of context, one of the reasons I called BS earlier. They didn't want to vote me, but couldn't get the numbers to go elsewhere so had to change at the deadline. Inside that group(which CW was one of them) is where you will find last night's convert.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

But he wasn't tested, was he? Last round, he wasn't tested either. And I'll betcha anything he won't be tested this or next round either, due to the number of defenders, such as yourself. So, when WILL he be tested?

I'll happily offer myself to be tested....after Blade and you.

It has been my experience there's traditionally at least one Bad Guy pushing hard to discredit a major role reveal, along with one person guessing totally wrong.

I do, however, question your Thinghood since you haven't been around. Hence, blade goes first, and we'll see how things sort out tomorrow.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And the real seer would have had the opportunity to refute Coffee. I'm about 90% of the way to making this assumption #4.

No doubt in my mind CW WAS the seer at one point. I think he was most likely converted b/c out of everyone that tried to save me last night, he has changed his play the most today.

[Coffee Warlord]

Of course, I'm ALWAYS fucking wrong about Blade, but dammit, he's gotta be a wolf one of these times.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I'll happily offer myself to be tested....after Blade and you.

It has been my experience there's traditionally at least one Bad Guy pushing hard to discredit a major role reveal, along with one person guessing totally wrong.

I do, however, question your Thinghood since you haven't been around. Hence, blade goes first, and we'll see how things sort out tomorrow.

See, just like i said he is positioning himself to not be tested tomorrow...and tomorrow he will find another person to be tested before him...seriously, am i the only one(outside of WVU, who was the last person i expected to be thinking clearly after he must have read through soo much today) who sees this logic? Cronin, do you really find this that delusional?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I'll happily offer myself to be tested....after Blade and you.

It has been my experience there's traditionally at least one Bad Guy pushing hard to discredit a major role reveal, along with one person guessing totally wrong.

I do, however, question your Thinghood since you haven't been around. Hence, blade goes first, and we'll see how things sort out tomorrow.

Of course you would. The whole point in the reveal was to buy you guys a couple of days so you could build up and blend your numbers.

[hoopsguy]

I think we are a long way from anyone being tested right now. Early vote leaders do not always translate into final vote leaders. So I would encourage you not to emotionally check out just quite yet.

If we don't get a Thing today, and they convert again tonight then we lose the chance to close this out in one day (for the time being). Because they will be up to three and the most we can get at a time is two.