WW CLVIII - The Princess Bride Returns (Game Over: Wolves Win!!!)

[fontisian]

Alright. Who would you have scanned before Jackal's reveal?

[Coffee Warlord]

Let's handle this scientifically.

Which one of you is lying?

[fontisian]

Problem solved.

[JAG]

I had Lathum down as a scan target. I don't recall what vote it was, but I think he was one of the few unknowns left in one of them after Narcizo's reveal.

[mauchow]

I see where you're going a little bit CW. Have a wolf fake reveal to see if Jackal the seer could get lynched. That's a big move.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauchow

I see where you're going a little bit CW. Have a wolf fake reveal to see if Jackal the seer could get lynched. That's a big move.

I'm good with there being some discussion about trying to make sure all the bases are covered. But the fact is, we don't know for sure that the cunning is even in the game. Then you'd have to believe that Jackal was unlucky enough to have scanned them with 1/18, 1/17, 1/16 odds. Then that the cunning would choose to reveal with this ploy after having been scanned clean and after the BG has been revealed and killed. Then ask yourself if a wolf on the block (one with an ability, or at least a brutal who wants to know where the seer is) would at least try to draw out the seer before going down.

It's all possible sure, but the likelihood of all that together is pretty remote.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm good with there being some discussion about trying to make sure all the bases are covered. But the fact is, we don't know for sure that the cunning is even in the game. Then you'd have to believe that Jackal was unlucky enough to have scanned them with 1/18, 1/17, 1/16 odds. Then that the cunning would choose to reveal with this ploy after having been scanned clean and after the BG has been revealed and killed. Then ask yourself if a wolf on the block (one with an ability, or at least a brutal who wants to know where the seer is) would at least try to draw out the seer before going down.

It's all possible sure, but the likelihood of all that together is pretty remote.

Exactly. I brought up the point of bringing up a different number of scans. I just don't see how a wolf would make that mistake in a fake reveal.

The only thing Jackal really has going for him is being the first reveal.

IF you are the seer or a wolf, YOU don't have any real pressure to reveal today but you did. As I said, I can see where CW is going in that it'd be a small possible way to draw this out into the open and try to lynch our seer.

[mauchow]

I do believe that if JAG is the seer, he shouldn't have come out today based on last night's results with DQ allowing Vizzini to become more powerful. I am assuming that DQs BG ability was blocked since EF said this:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Your bodyguard just gave Vezzini more power.

If it wasn't directly related to that I don't think EF comes out with the bump for Vezzini.

Now you can be blocked from your BG protection and will likely die tonight if the wolves believe you're the seer.

Whoever is Miracle Max needs to submit a few conditionals tonight to protect JAG/Jackal, whoever doesn't get lynched.

[mauchow]

Or am I reading Vezzini's abilities incorrectly?

[Coffee Warlord]

I wish some other people would get in here and sound off.

[mauchow]

Perhaps Vezzini has to submit a night action to block the next night's action so JAG/Jackal will live through the night if they protect themselves or Max protects them tonight.

I better stop before I confuse myself.

[JAG]

I believe he'll probably be able to steal the scan, but not the protection. And yeah, I do believe I probably won't be able to get another scan in because powered up Vizzini probably gets to steal the ability without the 24 hour delay. But even if I die, I had a lot of information to give out and didn't want people to vote today trying to decide whether or not to believe Jackal. I also don't think we would've gotten that much useful information today because the wolves knew the real Westley would bust Jackal at some point and would be careful to cover their tracks. I had some useful info to get out and didn't want things to go haywire today for the sake of maybe getting 1-2 more scans in.

[Chief Rum]

From the tenor of the discussion , I am thinking the village is strongly leraning toward suporting JAG as the seer, and he might be that. But my thinking has always been that the first to reveal is the seer. So I'm rolling with that until I am done with my analysis of things.

VOTE JAG

[Chief Rum]

Holy typos Batman!

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I wish some other people would get in here and sound off.

Part of me thinks the village should let the wolves solve that part tonight and the village goes the other three wolves. im leaving my vote on zinto.

Trying to keep up on my phone but if you are wondering about which one to believe I can't give any more advice than has been posted so far.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ya know, that's actually a rather interesting approach I hadn't thought of.

[Coffee Warlord]

Might be interesting to see if we can't insist they both scan the same person today, leave them both alive, and go after someone else. See how things unfold after tonight.

[JAG]

Day 2:

1 Britrock - Lathum (333)
1 DQ_BOY1000 - JAG (340)
1 fontisian - Narcizo (330)
1 PackerFanatic - mauchow (356)
1 KatyLied - Coffee Warlord (358)
1 path12 - DQ_BOY1000 (368)

Narcizo unvotes fontisian (0), votes path12 (2)
KatyLied votes Coffee Warlord (1)
PackerFanatic votes Britrock (2)
path12 votes DQ_BOY1000 (2)
murra5y votes fontisian (1)
fontisian votes Julio (1)
Britrock votes JAG (1)
Danny votes path12 (3)
Jackal votes DQBOY_1000 (3)
Coffee Warlord unvotes Katy (0)
fontisian unvotes Julio (0), votes Britrock (3)
Autumn votes JAG (2)
Coffee Warlord votes JAG (3)
Chief Rum votes JAG (4)
Mauchow unvotes Packer (0)
murra5y unvotes fontisian (0), votes path12 (4)
Mauchow votes DQ_BOY1000 (4)
Zinto votes DQ_BOY1000 (5)
Fontisian unvotes Britrock (2), votes JAG (5)
DT votes path12 (4)
DQ_BOY1000 unvotes path12 (3), votes JAG (6)
fontisian unvotes JAG (5), votes path12 (4)
Autumn unvotes JAG (4), votes Britrock (3)
Coffee Warlord unvotes JAG (3), votes DQ_BOY1000 (6)
KatyLied unvotes Coffee Warlord (0), votes JAG (4)
Jackal unvotes DQ (5), votes path12 (5)
Lathum unvotes Britrock (2), votes DQ_BOY1000 (6)
Britrock unvotes JAG (3), votes path12 (6)
Britrock unvotes path12 (5), votes DQ_BOY1000 (7)
Autumn unvotes Britrock (1), votes DQ_BOY1000 (8)
Danny unvotes path12 (4), votes DQ_BOY1000 (9)
DQ_BOY1000 unvotes JAG (2), votes path12 (5)
Britrock unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (8), votes JAG (3)
JAG unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (7), votes path12 (6)
Danny unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (6)
Autumn unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (5), votes path12 (7)
Coffee Warlord unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (4)
Britrock unvotes JAG (2), votes path12 (8)
Danny votes path12 (9)
Coffee Warlord votes path12 (10)
Zinto unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (3), votes path12 (11)
Chief Rum unvotes JAG (1), votes path12 (12)
Mauchow (in traffic) unvotes DQ_BOY1000 (2)

[JAG]

Normally the "let the wolves sort it out" thing has some merit, but there's a chance Jackal is Vizzini or Humperdink, in which case letting him live would be a bad call.

[Coffee Warlord]

Actually, probably wouldn't matter anyway. Vizzini, whoever he is, can just lock down the real seer, and waste our time.

[JAG]

If someone has time to do D3 in a similar format, I would be very appreciative.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

I had Lathum down as a scan target. I don't recall what vote it was, but I think he was one of the few unknowns left in one of them after Narcizo's reveal.

unknows left in what?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

unknows left in what?

It was the murra5y vote from D1:

murra5y 7 - Lathum, Narcizo, Danny, mauchow, JAG, fontisian, Coffee Warlord (159)

I had Coffee cleared, Narc cleared, Danny and font as likely good based on their voting behavior with me / trying to get votes off me D2, which left you and mauchow as the big unknowns on murra5y to me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

It was the murra5y vote from D1:

murra5y 7 - Lathum, Narcizo, Danny, mauchow, JAG, fontisian, Coffee Warlord (159)

I had Coffee cleared, Narc cleared, Danny and font as likely good based on their voting behavior with me / trying to get votes off me D2, which left you and mauchow as the big unknowns on murra5y to me.

I guess I don't see the relevance of it. Are you assuming Murray5Y is a villager?

I welcome a scan but it seems like a strange line to take.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by fontisian

You made me delve back into that mayhem Coffee.
fontisian unvote CR vote DT
Murra5y unvote Jackal vote Zinto
Danny unvote Jackal vote mauchow
Jackal unvote Danny vote DT
britrock vote Julio Riddols
Coffe unvote mauchow vote DT
Coffee unvote DT vote mauchow
Murra5y unvote Zinto vote mauchow
Lathum unvote Jackal vote DT
britrock unvote Julio Riddols vote Jackal
mauchow unvote Jackal vote DT
Lathum unvote DT vote mauchow
Danny unvote mau vote DT
JAG vote DT

JAG: Why did you vote for DT if you knew Jackal was lying?
britrock: What is up with your votes?

I wasn't terribly impressed with the leading candidates yesterday, so I put a couple votes out there (JAG, Julio) for the sake of having those as indicators of my wishes. Then, when Jackal revealed, I didn't buy it, so I hopped on to him.

[britrock88]

Vote The Jackal

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I guess I don't see the relevance of it. Are you assuming Murray5Y is a villager?

I welcome a scan but it seems like a strange line to take.

I had Murray leaning towards good, so you were my placeholder after Narc's reveal left you and Mau as my least-trusted people left on Murray. Then after Jackal's reveal, I changed my scan to Katy based on her late vote for DT before Jackal revealed. Had I had more time to contemplate the scan I would've chosen someone else based on Jackal's D1 vote on her.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I wasn't terribly impressed with the leading candidates yesterday, so I put a couple votes out there (JAG, Julio) for the sake of having those as indicators of my wishes. Then, when Jackal revealed, I didn't buy it, so I hopped on to him.

Why didn't you believe it out of curiosity?

[Danny]

While not 100%, I think a circle of trust of Jag, Narc, Katy, Murray, Coffee (and if you want) me is a good starting point here.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by JAG

Why didn't you believe it out of curiosity?

Gut. (Because that worked really well for my impression of you... )

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

While not 100%, I think a circle of trust of Jag, Narc, Katy, Murray, Coffee (and if you want) me is a good starting point here.

Very risky. I only see one person to trust there and that's Narc.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

While not 100%, I think a circle of trust of Jag, Narc, Katy, Murray, Coffee (and if you want) me is a good starting point here.

what puts you in there?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Part of me thinks the village should let the wolves solve that part tonight and the village goes the other three wolves. im leaving my vote on zinto.

Trying to keep up on my phone but if you are wondering about which one to believe I can't give any more advice than has been posted so far.

I do not think we can just let the wolves sort it out. If Max is in the game we can conceivably get another scan if we hit the correct fake seer. If only Jackal had reveled then I would agree that we could just wait it out but I just do not think it is a good idea.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what puts you in there?

Danny put himself in there. You quoted his post.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what puts you in there?

He pushed Jackal yesterday, which if Jackal ends up being the wolf, a big plus in his favor.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Very risky. I only see one person to trust there and that's Narc.

I agree currently but if Jackal is a wolf then Danny is right we have a nice circle of trust built.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

He pushed Jackal yesterday, which if Jackal ends up being the wolf, a big plus in his favor.

It always makes me a little nervous when someone points out why they should be trusted when they havn't been prompted to d oso. Seems like they are trying a little to hard to be noticed.

Remember, it is easy for a wolf to have a good voting record. And I wouldn't put it past Danny to sacrafice Jackal to try and buy trust. I thought Danny was the seer when he immedeatly came out and voted JAckal, then said he was sure Jackal is a wolf.

Only 2 ways he can know that, a positive seer scan or he is a wolf also.

[Coffee Warlord]

Counterpoint: Danny has had a history lately of saying that when he votes or unvotes. "I'm sure so and so is a wolf." "I'm sure so and so isn't a wolf." I don't take it seriously anymore.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It always makes me a little nervous when someone points out why they should be trusted when they havn't been prompted to d oso. Seems like they are trying a little to hard to be noticed.

Remember, it is easy for a wolf to have a good voting record. And I wouldn't put it past Danny to sacrafice Jackal to try and buy trust. I thought Danny was the seer when he immedeatly came out and voted JAckal, then said he was sure Jackal is a wolf.

Only 2 ways he can know that, a positive seer scan or he is a wolf also.

I agree but I doubt Danny pushes Jackal as much as he did if he is a wolf.

[Zinto]

I assume that Jackal is lying and Jag is telling the truth so...

Vote Jackal

[PackerFanatic]

I will probably not be around much tonight, so I am getting my vote in now. Even after all the discussion, I think this is the right choice.

VOTE JACKAL

[britrock88]

May not be around tonight, FYI.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Counterpoint: Danny has had a history lately of saying that when he votes or unvotes. "I'm sure so and so is a wolf." "I'm sure so and so isn't a wolf." I don't take it seriously anymore.

Look at my history of when I say book it, I think I am damn near 100%

[Danny]

And last game when I came out strongly against someone they turned out wolf also

[Chief Rum]

This is the quietest large game ever.

[britrock88]

Well, it's a pretty clear choice today, I think, and I don't know that many people are capable of being swayed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Well, it's a pretty clear choice today, I think, and I don't know that many people are capable of being swayed.

I don't know that it's so clear, but if that's the case, I wish we had Nigthfall'd a long time ago.

[Coffee Warlord]

While I'll be perfectly happy to be proven wrong, I've raised some valid concerns that I'm kinda nervous practically no one has even discussed. Not terribly thrilled that some of my favorite wolf-worthy folks were among the first to call it a day and vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

That being said, there's not much else to say that hasn't been said, without some other minds getting involved.

[fontisian]

Is there a viable alternative to lynching Jackal or JAG? I don't see one, so I'm going for the more scummy of the two.