2014 Election Contest

[Solecismic]

Post entries to this thread. These are due before midnight EST Tuesday (late Monday night) when Dixville Notch reports its results.

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

Alaska: Mark Bergich, D, Incumbent vs. Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Mark Pryor, D, Incumbent, vs. Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Mark Udall, D, Incumbent, vs. Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Bruce Braley, D, vs. Joni Ernst, R (Tom Harkin, D, retiring).
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent vs. Pat Roberts, R, Incumbent.
Kentucky: Alice Grimes, D, vs. Mitch McConnell, R, Incumbent.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D, Incumbent, vs. Scott Brown, R.
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D, Incumbent vs. Thom Tillis, R.

(note: Georgia and Louisiana are not included as there are runoff elections if no candidate reaches 50%, and this seems very likely).

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D, Incumbent vs. Tom Foley, R.
Florida: Charlie Crist, D, vs. Rick Scott, R, Incumbent.
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D, Incumbent, vs. Bruce Rauner, R.
Maine: Mike Michaud, D, vs. Paul LePage, R, Incumbent, and Eliot Cutler, Independent.
Michigan: Mark Schauer, D, vs. Rick Snyder, R, Incumbent.
Wisconsin: Mary Burke, D, vs. Scott Walker, R, Incumbent

Tie-Breaker

Percentage of Margin for Mitch McConnell (+ or -)
Percentage of Margin for Jeanne Shaheen (+ or -)

Errors will be added together to provide a score (in tenths of points).

Eg: If you enter "McConnell +3.5, Shaheen -1.5", and McConnell wins by 1.7 and Shaheen wins by 2.3, then your score will be 1.8 for McConnell and 3.8 for Shaheen, equaling 5.6. Lowest score takes the tie-breaker.

Margin will be computed around 24 hours after the polls close, whatever the numbers show at that time.

[britrock88]

Senate
AK: Sullivan
AR: Cotton
CO: Gardner
IA: Ernst
KS: Orman
KY: McConnell
NH: Shaheen
NC: Hagan

Governors
CT: Foley
FL: Crist
IL: Rauner
ME: Michaud
MI: Snyder
WI: Walker

Tie-Breaker
McConnell: +2.5
Shaheen: +2.0

[larrymcg421]

This reminds me of that episode of Cheers where Sam and Coach bet against the Celtics...

AK: Sullivan
AR: Cotton
CO: Gardner
IA: Braley
KS: Orman
KY: McConnell
NH: Shaheen
NC: Hagan

CT: Malloy
FL: Crist
IL: Quinn
ME: Michaud
MI: Snyder
WI: Walker

McConnell +4
Shaheen +2

[flere-imsaho]

I'd play, but Jim has me on ignore.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'd play, but Jim has me on ignore.

I'll quote your predictions.

[Grover]

2014 Senate:

Alaska: Mark Bergich, D.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Mark Udall, D.
Iowa: Bruce Braley, D.
Kansas:Pat Roberts, R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D

2014 Governors:

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D
Florida: Charlie Crist, D
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D, Incumbent
Maine: Paul LePage, R, Incumbent
Michigan: Rick Snyder, R, Incumbent.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, R

Tie-Breaker

Percentage of Margin for Mitch McConnell (+8)
Percentage of Margin for Jeanne Shaheen (+4)

[tarcone]

Alaskaan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Mark Pryor, D.
Colorado: Mark Udall, D.
Iowa: Joni Ernst, R.
Kansas: Pat Roberts, R.
Kentucky:Mitch McConnell, R.
New Hampshire:Scott Brown, R.
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D.

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D.
Florida: Rick Scott, R.
Illinois: Bruce Rauner, R.
Maine: Mike Michaud, D.
Michigan:Rick Snyder, R.
Wisconsin: Mary Burke, D.

Tie-Breaker

Mitch McConnell +4.6
Jeanne Shaheen +1.2

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'll quote your predictions.

I checked. I have a grand total of five people who have posted in the last few years on ignore. It takes a lot to get there. But I also see that they've posted and can sign out to view posts. For the purposes of this contest, assume that I will see and include all entries.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I checked. I have a grand total of five people who have posted in the last few years on ignore. It takes a lot to get there. But I also see that they've posted and can sign out to view posts. For the purposes of this contest, assume that I will see and include all entries.

There's also a "view post" link at the top right of ignored posts, so you can look at individaul posts of ignored folks on an as needed basis without logging out.

[BishopMVP]

Not even bothering to include MA-Gov?

PS what does the winner get? Their name and high school in TCY2?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Not even bothering to include MA-Gov?

PS what does the winner get? Their name and high school in TCY2?

What's this TCY2 people sometimes mention?

Yeah, I'd add MA-Gov if I had to do this over again, because it's one of only a couple I haven't made a guess on myself yet. I was trying not to have too much New England, but the way things are shaping up, it's going to be a late night in Boston.

But with entries already in and just hours before the deadline, I'm not going to change the parameters.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Yeah, I'd add MA-Gov if I had to do this over again,

ME-Gov is also continuing to be interesting, but I think you made the right call in sticking with the Senate, otherwise that would be a pretty big rabbit hole you could be staring down.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I checked. I have a grand total of five people who have posted in the last few years on ignore. It takes a lot to get there.

I dispute this, because it paints me as some sort of asshole. You put me on ignore because I consistently refuted your speculative arguments with facts and figures in the Obama thread, and you didn't like it. The final straw was when I refused to treat you with kid gloves. People can judge for themselves. See especially post #22146.

[chesapeake]

2014 Senate:

Alaska: Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Joni Ernst, R
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D
Florida: Charlie Crist, D
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D
Maine: Mike Michaud, D
Michigan: Rick Snyder, R
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, R

Tie-Breaker

Percentage of Margin for Mitch McConnell +8
Percentage of Margin for Jeanne Shaheen +3

[Solecismic]

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

AK - Sullivan (R)
AR - Cotton (R)
CO - Udall (D)
IA - Braley (D)
KS - Orman (I)
KY - McConnell (R)
NH - Shaheen (D)
NC - Hagen (D)

D 50-48 after tonight, as Orman will quickly agree to caucus with the Democrats

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

CT - Malloy (D)
FL - Crist (D)
IL - Quinn (D)
ME - Michaud (D)
MI - Snyder (R)
WI - Burke (D)

Tie-Breaker

McConnell +5.5
Shaheen +6.3

[Solecismic]

No new entries when I signed out. So that was a waste. I'll say this once more, and not again. I'm not anonymous here. Most people are. When some people are posting anonymously on controversial topics, there's sometimes a tendency to behave without respect for others. I average putting someone on ignore about once a year, looking at the record.

That isn't a lot, but it has made a big difference in my enjoyment of controversial topics. So I'll keep doing it. Obviously, that one post quoted here was a straw on a camel's back. Just a little bit. I remember being to a point where I was already on the edge with flere, and it wasn't because of something he wrote to me. I don't remember the details, and if it somehow mattered here (it's not like if he's a customer he can't still access my web site and email support), I wouldn't use the ignore feature at all.

That's my right to use the feature. It doesn't make flere a bad person in my mind, I just don't want to interact with him on controversial topics. But I also shouldn't mention it and won't again.

If we have a dispute with someone on a message board, I think we owe it to everyone to always be polite - even if we feel very strongly that the other side of the dispute is not only wrong, but egregiously wrong. That has nothing to do with fragility or expecting special treatment (if I became upset every time someone criticized me, I would have disappeared from the 'net many years ago). It's my own little crusade - making anonymous forums more respectful to everyone, and perhaps it's indulgent. Who knows. I'm obviously the king of self-indulgence, not having had a real job in almost 17 years.

So vote for FOF7 on Steam if you haven't already. Because after all that time, I'm not sure I'm even capable of real work.

[SackAttack]

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

Alaska: Mark Begich, D, Incumbent vs. Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Mark Pryor, D, Incumbent, vs. Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Mark Udall, D, Incumbent, vs. Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Bruce Braley, D, vs. Joni Ernst, R (Tom Harkin, D, retiring).
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent vs. Pat Roberts, R, Incumbent.
Kentucky: Alice Grimes, D, vs. Mitch McConnell, R, Incumbent.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D, Incumbent, vs. Scott Brown, R.
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D, Incumbent vs. Thom Tillis, R.

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D, Incumbent vs. Tom Foley, R.
Florida: Charlie Crist, D, vs. Rick Scott, R, Incumbent.
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D, Incumbent, vs. Bruce Rauner, R.
Maine: Mike Michaud, D, vs. Paul LePage, R, Incumbent, and Eliot Cutler, Independent.
Michigan: Mark Schauer, D, vs. Rick Snyder, R, Incumbent.
Wisconsin: Mary Burke, D, vs. Scott Walker, R, Incumbent

Tiebreaker:

McConnell + 5.5
Shaheen + 1.5

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

When some people are posting anonymously on controversial topics, there's sometimes a tendency to behave without respect for others.

I have a rule when posting. And that rule is not to post anything I wouldn't say to someone face-to-face. Yes, "flere-imsaho", isn't my real name. But it's pretty easy to pm and/or email me and folks have certainly done so, though not on controversial topics (mostly jobs, moving, etc...).

I remember being to a point where I was already on the edge with flere, and it wasn't because of something he wrote to me. I don't remember the details, and if it somehow mattered here (it's not like if he's a customer he can't still access my web site and email support), I wouldn't use the ignore feature at all.

Well, I've never pmed or emailed you personally, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

That's my right to use the feature.

Absolutely. And it's my right to point out that you don't have a thick skin. I've been far more robust with other members of the board and aside from the ones who eventually got banned, everyone's taken it in stride (and usually given as good as they got).

It doesn't make flere a bad person in my mind, I just don't want to interact with him on controversial topics.

Your posting history readily indicates that you have a problem with most anyone who picks apart your arguments. You perhaps chose me to place on ignore because I was more persistent than most. If you do not like your views being challenged, you might want to either a) re-think how you support your views (a very common refrain from most everyone who's been engaging you in debate recently) or b) stay out of those controversial issues. Free speech runs both ways here. You have a right to put forward terrible arguments, and I have a right to expose their terribleness.

If we have a dispute with someone on a message board, I think we owe it to everyone to always be polite - even if we feel very strongly that the other side of the dispute is not only wrong, but egregiously wrong.

Sure, but that's a two-way street.

Politeness is as much "not calling someone names" as it is engaging in a reasoned debate, which includes things like supporting your arguments, providing proof, etc.... If you're not going to engage in discussion on a controversial topic in a reasonable manner, you shouldn't expect the other side of the discussion to remain reasonable either.

You also have a serious problem with condescension, which is another "politeness" thing.

So vote for FOF7 on Steam if you haven't already.

And, because I am quite capable of separating arguing on controversial topics from everything else (as my posting history clearly shows with some of my regular "opponents" such as Jon, Mike or Greg), I should note that I did do this a few weeks ago when I first noticed that you were in the Greenlight voting area (or whatever it's called).

[QuikSand]

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

Alaska: Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Joni Ernst, R
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D
Florida: Charlie Crist, D
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D
Maine: Mike Michaud, D
Michigan: Rick Snyder, R
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, R

Tie-Breaker

Percentage of Margin for Mitch McConnell (+ or -) +6.6
Percentage of Margin for Jeanne Shaheen (+ or -) +3.3

[Ryche]

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

Alaska: Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Bruce Braley, D
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, R.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, R.

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D.
Florida: Charlie Crist, D.
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D, Incumbent.
Maine: Mike Michaud, D
Michigan: Rick Snyder, R, Incumbent.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, R
Colorado: John Hickenlooper, D (not in the original list but I had to include it)

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Not even bothering to include MA-Gov?

I was going to say the same thing about CO-Gov which is very close and I think had been projected to be so.

[Solecismic]

Well, I can safely say I won't win this contest.

I didn't want to have more than one race in a state, and I wanted to keep focus on the Senate as counting more. However, MA-Gov would have been far better than some of the ones I included.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Well, I can safely say I won't win this contest.

I didn't want to have more than one race in a state, and I wanted to keep focus on the Senate as counting more. However, MA-Gov would have been far better than some of the ones I included.

Hey, not like anyone saw this much of a wave coming. Quick look I think Britrock and Tarcone are the favorites, and they're both still too far left. Just picking all R's might've won this contest.

It is interesting nationally that even as all these other states are swinging further R than polling indicated that the MA Gov race actually swung a little Coakley's way today... As much as people think Mass is a straight blue state (and it is in Presidential elections because we can't stomach the national Republicans social positions), there really are a ton of independents here that make things hard to predict and lead to a lot of close Governor races.

[Solecismic]

I didn't even include the closest senate race. It never occurred to me that Virginia was even worth a look after a certain point.

Look at the Virginia polling history. All double-digits, except for a +9 Quinnipiac poll last month and a +7 from the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy that showed only 3% undecideds. Looking at the Wason Center poll, it seems to have been done properly, though. Warner probably holds, but that is a huge miss from everyone.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I didn't even include the closest senate race. It never occurred to me that Virginia was even worth a look after a certain point.

I wouldn't beat yourself up too much about that one. Not sure anybody objective thought it was in play either.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Post entries to this thread. These are due before midnight EST Tuesday (late Monday night) when Dixville Notch reports its results.

2014 Senate (1 point per correct choice):

Alaska: Mark Bergich, D, Incumbent vs. Dan Sullivan, R.
Arkansas: Mark Pryor, D, Incumbent, vs. Tom Cotton, R.
Colorado: Mark Udall, D, Incumbent, vs. Cory Gardner, R.
Iowa: Bruce Braley, D, vs. Joni Ernst, R (Tom Harkin, D, retiring).
Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent vs. Pat Roberts, R, Incumbent.
Kentucky: Alice Grimes, D, vs. Mitch McConnell, R, Incumbent.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, D, Incumbent, vs. Scott Brown, R.
North Carolina: Kay Hagen, D, Incumbent vs. Thom Tillis, R.

(note: Georgia and Louisiana are not included as there are runoff elections if no candidate reaches 50%, and this seems very likely).

2014 Governors (1 point per correct choice):

Connecticut: Dannel Malloy, D, Incumbent vs. Tom Foley, R.
Florida: Charlie Crist, D, vs. Rick Scott, R, Incumbent.
Illinois: Pat Quinn, D, Incumbent, vs. Bruce Rauner, R.
Maine: Mike Michaud, D, vs. Paul LePage, R, Incumbent, and Eliot Cutler, Independent.
Michigan: Mark Schauer, D, vs. Rick Snyder, R, Incumbent.
Wisconsin: Mary Burke, D, vs. Scott Walker, R, Incumbent

Tie-Breaker

Percentage of Margin for Mitch McConnell (+ or -)
Percentage of Margin for Jeanne Shaheen (+ or -)

Errors will be added together to provide a score (in tenths of points).

Eg: If you enter "McConnell +3.5, Shaheen -1.5", and McConnell wins by 1.7 and Shaheen wins by 2.3, then your score will be 1.8 for McConnell and 3.8 for Shaheen, equaling 5.6. Lowest score takes the tie-breaker.

Margin will be computed around 24 hours after the polls close, whatever the numbers show at that time.

Just as in the presidential election California doesn't matter... even though we have the largest population...

[Alan T]

Hey, not like anyone saw this much of a wave coming. Quick look I think Britrock and Tarcone are the favorites, and they're both still too far left. Just picking all R's might've won this contest.



It is interesting nationally that even as all these other states are swinging further R than polling indicated that the MA Gov race actually swung a little Coakley's way today... As much as people think Mass is a straight blue state (and it is in Presidential elections because we can't stomach the national Republicans social positions), there really are a ton of independents here that make things hard to predict and lead to a lot of close Governor races.

At least since I moved to massachusetts in 1999, we have always had republican governors other than the current one. My impression is the state generally votes Boston and Worcester vs everyone else. (With some obvious exceptions)

[Solecismic]

Congrats to britrock88, for his winning score of 10. Chesapeake was second.

It was a rough day for predictions, though our average was over 50%. I didn't help with my last-place entry.

Everyone got the Michigan governor and Kentucky senate prediction correct. And almost everyone scored on Connecticut governor, New Hampshire senator and Arkansas senator.

Only two people scored with Maine governor, Illinois governor and Kansas senate. And just one with North Carolina senate, though that entry came long after the deadline.

Ironically, britrock88 had the worst score on the tie-breaker. Chesapeake had the best score.

[chesapeake]

Congrats, britrock! I'm kicking myself for picking Orman. I went with the preponderance of polls and not with my gut.

Virginia is still hard to figure. At some point I will get the download from a staff contact over there. From the outside, it looks like he was just caught sleeping. 2 months ago, when you generally have to plan and make your TV ad buys, his team thought they had it sewn up so they decided not to spend the money. Once they realized that the race had tightened up, it was too late to go on the air. And they probably never did believe that he was ever really at risk of losing.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Alan T

At least since I moved to massachusetts in 1999, we have always had republican governors other than the current one. My impression is the state generally votes Boston and Worcester vs everyone else. (With some obvious exceptions)

Its a little more spread out. Cities, wealthy but liberal Middlesex County and granola Western Mass go D, CMass and the South Shore R. My impression is that the 95/495 belt of suburbs makes the difference - its generally older, middle to upper class white people, a.k.a. the Republican base elsewhere. Here its so socially liberal that they'll never vote for a socially regressive (especially antiabortion) candidate, but if you put a "probusiness" candidate out there (like the Massachusetts version of Romney or Baker) they'll swing it in his favor.

Last D governor before Patrick was actually Dukakis in the 80's.

[larrymcg421]

Warner actually did suspect something was up near the end. He was working his donors and asking for help far more than someone who was really up by the amount the polls had him.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Warner actually did suspect something was up near the end. He was working his donors and asking for help far more than someone who was really up by the amount the polls had him.

As a Warner donor, I can confirm this; but when I started noticing the increase in pleas for cash, it was really too late to get into the big DC media outlets in a way that would really help. Maybe he could have (and maybe he did) get into the Richmond and Tidewater markets. I don't know those very well. I still contend that his campaign was on autopilot late in the summer when your endgame strategy and ad buys are typically being made.