Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

when is the next deadline?

Monday at 9pm EST.

I have a few posts to make, but I'm going to throw this one out there first. I think every day from this point on should start with each person making a post of who they bet on for the lynch.

Before you say, "He's a wolf for suggesting this", hear me out. Yesterday I was thinking about playing defense with my vote, not wanting to lynch the obvious target where there was a good chance a wolf would make money when I didn't feel that strongly about the target being a wolf. The thing is, at this point, I have a few people out there that I have trust for, and seeing how we haven't had much success to this point, I want to be able to play offense also. If I see the vote as a tossup between equal candidates, I want to vote for the one that Chief Rum voted for because I know it's ok if money ends up in his pockets even if the lynch turns out to be a villager.

Another benefit is it gives the village more information to work with. The bookie service turns into almost a second seer scan to see if people were being truthful with their bets. By doing this, we force the wolves to either be truthful about who they're betting for or lie and risk being caught out. If they want to protect the information, that's more resources they have to spend on the bookie and less they have to spend on the NK / seer / etc... Lastly, when we hopefully start lynching some wolves, we might be able to piece things together with how they bet and link them with others in their mobster group.

Now of course I'm not blind to the downsides. There is risk in the plan including:

1. The wolves will know where the money winds up and get a more obvious choice for a NK. To counter that, I would point out that this gives the person who buys the BG a good idea of who to protect and also if a couple trusted people end up with a bet on the same candidate, we can be assured of spreading the wealth to reduce risk.

2. The results of the bookie stuff as reported in thread could end up being falsified. Not much to say about that except again we can force the wolves to spend money at a place they probably don't want to and that this is a problem that could happen with the seer scan at any point as well.

All in all, I think the positives outweigh the benefits, it's a gamble but I think it's the right direction for us to go.

[JAG]

Alright, here's my trust list to this point:

100% trust
Chief Rum --- scanned good, as far as we know there's no cunning role in the game, so I think this is as good as it gets.

Strong trust
The Jackal --- Mostly because I can't believe any wolf would waste the resources he did on the BG and seer, when he otherwise could've given his group a huge starting advantage.

Darth Vilus --- Scanned by Jackal as good, if a then b.

Mild / Moderate trust
hoopsguy --- His explanation for what happened with the voting makes sense. Even though we haven't seen evidence of a roled villlager yet, the rules state it might be possible, and I haven't seen a game where rules saying 'might have roles' ends up meaning 'nope, just kidding'. I'm not willing to bet the farm here, but I have somewhat more trust than other players to this point.

Neutral
Everyone else

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I got my PM from the service I won, and I don't see a point in keeping the info secret. I bid for and won the services of the betting parlor. I had a couple ways to go with it, and I chose to receive a list of everyone's bets for the lynch from yesterday (so what they submitted in the Night 0 phase).

Because I thought I remembered something from Chief Rum's reveal of the bets. He said there were multiple ways to go about winning the bid for the service.

With your everyone reveals what they bet strategy has to assume that the person chose to pick the service to see what everyone bet. Perhaps Rum can let everyone know what the other options are to see if the next person would possibly go a different route with that service? I'm sure the other one would have something to do with the next day's bet, like an insider pick. Having your bet switched to whoever is lynched tomorrow, being guaranteed a win. That sort of thing.

That would be pretty valuable, imo. Being day two I'd probably choose the reveal still because it might prove to be valuable.. however, after today I'm not seeing that seeing the bet reveals would be all that important except for the reason you mention, if EVERYONE revealed. Find out who's honest and who's not.

[mauchow]

And I'm happy to admit I bet on Darth Valis. I'm sure that's where the majority fell this time around like you mentioned, JAG.

[JAG]

Voting analysis:

Looking at D1:

J23 (8) Jackal 117, DaddyTorgo 178, Zinto 196, Danny 224, mauboy 1 230, Lathum 234, PackerFan 236, saldana 257
Lathum (5) Pass 118, mckerney 151, Tyketime 160, cougarfreak 191, Crimson Fox 217
Darth vilus (5) JAG 185, ntndeacon 197, hoopsguy 206, J23 209, Chief 211

Green = fully cleared villager (you can substitute Blue for Chief if you like)
Blue = Strongly trust villager

So by my guess, we had a trio of villagers on the block for D1 which means it was basically open voting for the wolves. At this point we know the least about those voting for Lathum. And I kick myself for not doing this on D2, but I feel like that's where we should focus looking for wolves because I think there have to be at least 2 in the 5 players there, looking to make money for their side. Villagers want to make money because it helps to find wolves, but the mobsters really need to make money because otherwise they're giving up control of the NK to the other group, who could end up killing one of their members in an NK. There's a reasonable chance that they have made 0 dollars the past couple days with how betting has gone and assuming they started with a total of $3k each (assuming 3 wolves a team) and spent nothing on anything else, that means they're down to a total of $3500...and Jackal presumably made close to that with one day of betting.

Day 2:

Darth Vilus (6) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, tyketime 389, saldana 409, chief rum 452, passacaglia 511
jackal (1) - crimson fox 365
Packerfanatic (3) - mckerney 418, mauboy1 463, zinto 483
Lathum (2) - cougarfreak 419, daddy torgo 465
Daddy Torgo (5) - Lathum 492, ntndeacon 495, hoopsguy 499, darth vilus 504, JAG 508

Voting is a lot more spread out. The only potential wolf we may have had based on my trust levels is DT, who was not a Lathum voter on D1 though he did bet on Lathum. I find it interesting, though not necessarily important, that D1 Lathum voters voted for four of the five different candidates with their five votes. I'm not fully sure what to make of the voting to this point.

The people I'm most apt to look at for today as stated would be D1 Lathum voters. I'm not 100% sure which at this point.

[JAG]

I think I got out all my thoughts. Night all.

[mauchow]

I'm willing to bet a lot of fake money that there are MULTIPLE mafia bets on Lathum that first night. They saw that Lathum said what he said and wanted to cash in early because they knew he wasn't a wolf. What harm could be done by betting on him? Well, the bets were revealed and now they've been outed possibly.

Passacaglia
Tyketime
Mckerney
DaddyTorgo
Zinto
Crimson Fox

Unless some other good stuff comes out today I'm willing to put my vote towards any one of these six. Five of the six voted for him (zinto the only one not to and never had his vote on Lathum once, but he did vote for J23, who ended up going home).

[mauchow]

And to add a little more info to the first day betting.. Not one person who's been killed so far bet on Lathum that first day, so my thinking is that their mentality's were all pretty much the same.. "he's silly, he could be a wolf, but probably not, I'm not going to be voting him anyway so I'm not going to bet him." But the wolves mentality's could have been, "Ooh, easy target for us, everyone will vote him, we know he's not a wolf, money in the bank, lets bet on him..."

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

Day 1: (No Vote: Darth Vilus)

(117) The Jackal votes J23: J23 1
(118) Passacaglia votes Lathum: J23 1 Lathum 1
(144) PackerFanatic votes Chief Rum: J23 1 Lathum 1 Chief Rum 1
(151) mckerny votes Lathum: Lathum 2 J23 1 Chief Rum 1
(160) tyketime votes Lathum: Lathum 3 J23 1 Chief Rum 1
(163) ntndeacon votes Crimson Fox: Lathum 3 J23 1 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1
(173) mauboy1 votes mckerny: Lathum 3 J23 1 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 mckerny 1
(177) Lathum votes J23: Lathum 3 J23 2 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 mckerny 1
(178) DaddyTorgo votes J23: Lathum 3 J23 3 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 mckerny 1
(185) JAG votes Darth Vilus: Lathum 3 J23 3 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 Darth Vilus 1 mckerny 1
(191) cougarfreak votes Lathum: Lathum 4 J23 3 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 Darth Vilus 1 mckerny 1
(196) Zinto votes J23: Lathum 4 J23 4 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 Darth Vilus 1 mckerny 1
(197) ntndeacon unvotes Crimson Fox, votes Darth Vilus: Lathum 4 J23 4 Darth Vilus 2 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(206) hoopsguy votes Darth Vilus: Lathum 4 J23 4 Darth Vilus 3 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(209) J23 votes Darth Vilus: Lathum 4 J23 4 Darth Vilus 4 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(211) Chief Rum votes Darth Vilus: Darth Vilus 5 Lathum 4 J23 4 Chief Rum 1 Crimson Fox 1 mckerny 1
(212) Lathum unvotes J23, votes Darth Vilus: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 4 J23 3 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(217) Crimson Fox votes Lathum: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 5 J23 3 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(224) Danny votes J23: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 5 J23 4 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(227) saldana votes Lathum: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 6 J23 4 Chief Rum 1 mckerny 1
(230) mauboy1 unvotes mckerny, votes J23: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 6 J23 5 Chief Rum 1
(234) Lathum unvotes Darth Vilus, votes J23: J23 6 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5 Chief Rum 1
(236) PackerFanatic unvotes Chief Rum, votes J23: J23 7 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5
(257) saldana unvotes Lathum, votes J23: J23 8 Lathum 5 Darth Vilus 5


Final Day 1:

J23 (8) Jackal 117, DaddyTorgo 178, Zinto 196, Danny 224 , mauboy1 230, Lathum 234, PackerFan 236, saldana 257
Lathum (5) Pass 118, mckerney 151, Tyketime 160, cougarfreak 191, Crimson Fox 217
Darth vilus (5) JAG 185, ntndeacon 197, hoopsguy 206, J23 209, Chief 211

1st day votes again to refresh...

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE DARTH VILUS

I'm finding DV's fight on this to look like a wolf just trying to say whatever he can to get the vote off him. Not loving this quick run on DT. Sure, his stuff was a little weird, but I think he's just not paying very close attention -- I really doubt that someone filled him in on everything in those three minutes.

Here's a switch vote from last night... just quoting stuff to move it back up. There were some big moves by villagers at the last minute to vote out DT and Pass's vote went here.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Bummin' thing is that even if I'm right, I probably still won't get trusted, cuz I could just be on the other wolf team.

Something just sounds wolfy about this post. Not saying I'm going to start gung-ho on voting Pass but.. just throwing it out there. At some point something is going to need to be said.

[mauchow]

Okay, I am done too since it is just me talking on a Saturday night.. lol.. apparently I am the only one not out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Okay, I am done too since it is just me talking on a Saturday night.. lol.. apparently I am the only one not out.

I'm dead...

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

.

Tyketime
Mckerney
DaddyTorgo

These would be the 3 i would look at next. They fall in line with JAG's and Mauboy's thinking as well

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Here's a switch vote from last night... just quoting stuff to move it back up. There were some big moves by villagers at the last minute to vote out DT and Pass's vote went here.

Something just sounds wolfy about this post. Not saying I'm going to start gung-ho on voting Pass but.. just throwing it out there. At some point something is going to need to be said.

Let me know when you've figured out what sounds wolfy about that post, so I can tell you why you're wrong!

[hoopsguy]

In for a minute, wanted to share some info from last night.

I won the Showgirl service, and that provides info on how much money someone has. I selected to use that service on Passacaglia, who had $1,000 dollars on him.

In terms of who I bet on, I missed that for Day 2 because I'm dumb and didn't clearly process the rules but put in Day 3 vote for Darth. I won't be trying to cash that check today with news that he has been scanned good.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I realize that this sounds self-serving, but looking at the Day 2 voting information that JAG provided .... there was no reason for wolves to do any kind of late end-run on DT if all the other candidates were good. So that makes me feel pretty good about the people who joined me in that movement. Especially using the color chart that we have now showing Lathum + Darth on that list alongside me. So I probably won't be going with anyone on that list for my vote today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

In for a minute, wanted to share some info from last night.

I won the Showgirl service, and that provides info on how much money someone has. I selected to use that service on Passacaglia, who had $1,000 dollars on him.

In terms of who I bet on, I missed that for Day 2 because I'm dumb and didn't clearly process the rules but put in Day 3 vote for Darth. I won't be trying to cash that check today with news that he has been scanned good.

That checks with my figured. Day 1 I forgot to bid on anything, and Day 2 I bid 10 on everything, and 100 on Knuckles (with the intent of no kill if I won it). None of those bids were winners.

[Passacaglia]

It's a shame you had to waste the service on me though, hoops -- you could have just asked me. As far as I know, I'm the only one being open about this stuff.

[hoopsguy]

Heh - I'm sure there are other explanations but you not winning anything is the simplest.

[mauchow]

I'm comfortable with going with the plan that JAG has outlined as a way to see if we have honest or untruthful people announcing; and that depends on whoever won the service actually chose that part of the service.

Day 2 Bets so far:

mauboy - Darth
hoopsguy - did not vote

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, I realize that this sounds self-serving, but looking at the Day 2 voting information that JAG provided .... there was no reason for wolves to do any kind of late end-run on DT if all the other candidates were good. So that makes me feel pretty good about the people who joined me in that movement. Especially using the color chart that we have now showing Lathum + Darth on that list alongside me. So I probably won't be going with anyone on that list for my vote today.

We're not completely sure that Darth is good, though (sorry, The Jackal).

[Passacaglia]

Mau, I said this during Day 2, but my bet then was Lathum.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We're not completely sure that Darth is good, though (sorry, The Jackal).

Well, not 100%, I understand. But there's no way i waste 4000$ if I'm a wolf in that situation. I probably way overbid on Tank but I wanted to make sure I got at least one scan in, and got rid of my money so as to not give them any bonuses. Certainly don't want to clear Darth forever, but no reason to push him today.

My bet yesterday was DV, seemed a logical choice.

[The Jackal]

I didn't bet on him for today, but I'm going to take a hard look at CrimsonFox's posts and votes. Something has rubbed me as off by him.

[The Jackal]

Knowing that we were villager-villager-villager (I know that I and DV are good, so that's where I'm getting that) on day one shows us that wolf votes were likely very spread out, and could have been placed at virtually anytime. I want to go find Chief's post and repost it here near mau's repost of JAG's day 1.

[The Jackal]

Okay:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Packer Fanatic:            Chief Rum
JAG:                Darth Vilus
DaddyTorgo:            Lathum
Saldana:            The Jackal
Danny:                Daddy Torgo
The Jackal:            J23
Zinto:                Lathum
Crimson Fox:            Lathum
Darth Vilus:            CrimsonFox
Chief Rum:            ntndeacon
Mauboy1:        ntndeacon
Passacaglia:            Lathum
Lathum:                ntndeacon
J23:                (No Bet)
Tyketime    :        Lathum
Mckerney    :        Lathum
Hoopsguy:            Passacaglia
cougarfreak:            (No Bet)
Ntndeacon:            (No Bet)

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Checking in. Reading stuff and junk.

Autumn, some of those services are a little vague. Can we get more specific details about what they do gamewise and how they work? Or were they left specifically vague for gaming fun-ness.

Could be either a villager or wolf trying to get info, certainly.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Yeah I figured, but it never hurts to ask.

Addendum to previous comment when PF said it was probably deliberate.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Let's even it up a little.

Vote Lathum

Somewhat flyby vote, though day 1

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Excellent idea. I was thinking that myself since the seer is going to be moving from night to night they are pretty safe.

Response to me saying the seer should reveal their targets since it's a revolving role.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Vote The Jackal

Flyby vote after Chief revealed I'd won the day 1 bet

[The Jackal]

And that is the total of his comments, the lowest of any player still in the game. Flying very under the radar, fits the bet on/voted for Lathum day 1 mechanic. This is not set in stone, but I'm looking here for the moment:

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[JAG]

FYI, I bet on Crimson Fox for today and Chief Rum yesterday. I figured we'd have enough villager coverage on DV to make up for the three wolves that would've bet him had he turned out to be a wolf and wanted to bet on a Lathum voter. I don't know that I find him more or less tempting a target than other Lathum voters though.

I would propose laying off Pass for today and hopefully we can get a seer scan of him tonight. For one, if he's good and hoops is telling the truth, he has some money that can help the village. For two, if he ends up being a wolf, then hoops looks somewhat more suspicious to me (combo of betting him on D1, possibly trying to mitigate an unlucky D1 lynch of a fellow wolf) and DT would definitely look more suspicious since Pass believed he was saving him with last night's vote. On the other hand, if Pass is cleared (and I've read him as good since the beginning for what it's worth) would make me feel better about hoops, because it would appear he's revealing accurate information that he otherwise shouldn't be able to get from a villager. A scan there seems to provide a lot of value, assuming we can trust the person who provides it, which is of course the 64k question.

[mauchow]

huh...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

huh...

Thanks for your input

[mauchow]

just not sure i agree with JAGs reveal of today's bet.

[Zinto]

Alright if we are putting out our betting info here it goes. On day 2 I voted for Saldana, thinking that his vote on Lathum might put some suspicion on him. For day 3 I voted Darth. A lot of people where upset with the fact he didn't get lynched so I thought there might be a backlash on him.

[mauchow]

Okay, we need to figure out what we're doing here.. Are we revealing the previous days bets or bets made previous and the ones you made for the current day? Just not seeing the major benefit of revealing the same day votes as it will put targets on villagers for the mafia.

[The Jackal]

There definitely needs to be a measure of agreement in the thread before everyone starts revealing their bets, otherwise this will get fairly chaotic, which is usually bad for the village.

[The Jackal]

I haven't made up my mind on the topic, though I understand what JAG is driving at. Still weighing the positives and negatives, but some discussion on the topic would be good, especially since we have a doubly long day phase.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I haven't made up my mind on the topic, though I understand what JAG is driving at. Still weighing the positives and negatives, but some discussion on the topic would be good, especially since we have a doubly long day phase.

Sure, I can give you my thoughts on his "laying off Pass" ideas.

[Danny]

I have a suggestion for the villager in the game. Catch a wolf!

[mauchow]

Vote Mckerney

For the third day in a row I'm going Mckerney. This time he's in the group of people I'd like to have a vote on so it will probably stay on him or perhaps Crimson or another one on the list.. But this is where I'm starting out again.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Danny

I have a suggestion for the villager in the game. Catch a wolf!

We really do need to get it together today.

[cougarfreak]

I'll be the first to admit, I was wrong on Lathum, and that's who I bet on. I still thought his first day was pretty wacky. I'm not sure where to go now. When is the next vote deadline, is it Monday at 9?

[cougarfreak]

Sorry, I edited, I added that was who I bet on, I forgot that.

[The Jackal]

I guess most of the conversation is going to take place tomorrow. I'm definitely going to be out around the deadline, since it's valentine's day. Should be around until 5 or so though.

[The Jackal]

I'll say that I don't mind mckerney as a candidate either. But we've only had a few people comment today so we'll see what happens.

[mauchow]

I just remembered that I will be out quite a bit as well tomorrow evening with a work function. Crud. I should still have access on my phone to keep up with conversations though.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I expect tomorrow night may be a tough day for conversation relative to most weekdays due to Valentine's Day. But we're normally dead on weekends, so I'm not surprised with the lack of posts. People have been conditioned to stay away over weekends, I guess.

[Autumn]

I forgot about the Valentine's issue, since my wife is actually going to be away. Funny, I think the Rome or Money game happened on Valentine's too, I was just reading that.

I'm open to changing up the deadline if need be, though at least people have had the weekend to play also.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 697 (check me on this as I had a lot to cruise through)

mckerney (1) - mauboy1 689
crimson fox (1) - The jackal 678

[Darth Vilus]

I'll probably vote mckerney if no one better pops up, he is on my list after all. Jackal is still there too of course. I'll be out pretty much all day tomorrow, i have school from 8-11 and then work from 12-9, doesn't leave a whole lot of room for me to play

[Lathum]

I just have to give Kudos to Autumn. This game has renewed my love for WW and hopefully some of the new blood sticks around. I am literally chomping at the bit for the next game.