Werewolf LXX Pleasure Cruise - (GAME OVER)

[Lathum]

I see your point, thanks for explaining. I have the flu and am a little sluggish today

well like I said earlier Cronin, I generaly don't vote for someone unless I want them lynched.

And usualy the earlier I vote the more I think they are guilty.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This just made me blink a couple times. Lathum, you said that if you three early votes guarantees you being lynched, but with your second early vote on Swaggs, there was no way you could have known he would be lynched? Also, it seems like you're arguing against the argument cronin made to defend you -- I thought he was saying that if you DID know Swaggs would be lynched, that means you're more likely to be good, since the play is definitely more negative when Swaggs turned up villager.

Pass I meant if I get 3 early votes I am gone.

Not trying to sound pompous, thats just how things have gone for me lately.

Does that make more sense?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I voted for Anxiety earlier in game. Then he got this item. I trusted him then because I didnt think the item would be given to a wolf. Yet now he claims to have rejected the wolves and found no consequences but that they took his item and used it? Bullcrap. You didnt reject them. You accepted.

Vote Anxiety

I've thought the same thing - that his announcement of rejecting the underground could just have easily been cover because he did accept them.

However, at the same time, he did tell everyone that he thought I was good:

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Folks, just read my pm. I received the other half of my item from mccollins, so I suspect he is good. If anyone can help him, please, do so.

But this from Barkeep (in reference to Anxiety rejecting the underground) always seemed just a little off to me:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Good for you anxiety! Good for you!

You never know if something happened to him while off the boat as well.

Just gathering some data!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I've thought the same thing - that his announcement of rejecting the underground could just have easily been cover because he did accept them.

However, at the same time, he did tell everyone that he thought I was good:


But this from Barkeep (in reference to Anxiety rejecting the underground) always seemed just a little off to me:

You never know if something happened to him while off the boat as well.

Just gathering some data!

don't be fooled by that kind of stuff, if he is a wolf he would know that you are good.

[Lathum]

dola- I thought the same thing about Anxiety also.

It would definantly be in his charecture to reject the underground, which makes me wonder if he really did.

[mccollins]

For the record, as much as he argues and defends himself, I'm inclined to trust him this vote.
Earlier in the game, cronin seemed to shoot down any lead or idea that anyone had. However, over the course of the past day, he seems to have more normal villager play. So I don't want to vote for him either.

That being said, it's time to look for real leads rather than arguing and kvetching for pages!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

For the record, as much as he argues and defends himself, I'm inclined to trust him this vote.
Earlier in the game, cronin seemed to shoot down any lead or idea that anyone had. However, over the course of the past day, he seems to have more normal villager play. So I don't want to vote for him either.

That being said, it's time to look for real leads rather than arguing and kvetching for pages!

who are you refering to here?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Earlier in the game, cronin seemed to shoot down any lead or idea that anyone had.

I like to play devil's advocate.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I like to play devil's advocate.

No you don't. Let's stop talking about that.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

who are you refering to here?

Sorry, I should have stated your name (rather than relying on the quote).
The first line refers to Lathum; the rest refers to cronin.

Unless more evidence comes out before 3pm, I'm not voting for either of them today and we need to figure out what leads we have.

[mccollins]

Current unofficial vote count:
St. Cronin - Barkeep49 (1555), Claphamsa (1559)
Lathum - Path12 (1536)
jeheinz72 - Sonic Youth (1585)
oliegirl - Chief Rum (1527)
KWhit - Jackal (1520)
Claphamsa - TazFTW (1549)
Anxiety - Nfg22 (1644)

[oliegirl]

Alright - I've been in the thread since about 8 am, but with work and so many pages to catch up on, I just now finished reading everything.

First of all, I am SO sorry about being kind of absent this game...I'm trying to keep up and contribute what I can while I'm home, but I didn't expect the complications with my dad to occur and take up so much of my spare time. I do assure you that I am a vanilla villager, no powers other than the item I have that I completed with NFG.

My PM this morning stated that I browsed the pawn shop but did not find anything of interest so I didn't purchase anything.

At this point, most of my suspicion is on Path. Unless I missed something (which is completely possible) we still can't account for his whereabouts that 1st night and that means he is our most likely candidate for conversion up to now. If I missed something that clears him, I'm happy to change my vote, but until that happens...

VOTE PATH12

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Current unofficial vote count:
St. Cronin - Barkeep49 (1555), Claphamsa (1559)
Lathum - Path12 (1536)
jeheinz72 - Sonic Youth (1585)
oliegirl - Chief Rum (1527)
KWhit - Jackal (1520)
Claphamsa - TazFTW (1549)
Anxiety - Nfg22 (1644)

Ok, as I've said, I'm not comfortable voting for Cronin or Lathum this go round.

The vote on jeheinz is pretty much a spite vote from Sonic Youth (or so it seems).

The votes on Oliegirl and KWhit are "gut" votes. That's worth something, but more evidence helps.

Claphamsa and Anxiety are on my radar for reasons I've explained this morning. However, if either of them are good and we lynch them, I don't see much info gained from it. It doesn't seem like a "take one for the team" kind of situation.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm in the midst of a teaching SIP day which is incredibly painful. Let me throw out a provisional, just in case.

vote St. Cronin

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Claphamsa and Anxiety are on my radar for reasons I've explained this morning. However, if either of them are good and we lynch them, I don't see much info gained from it.

Actually they are connected by the sword. By itself I don't know what it could mean, but added to some other clue somebody might come up with, we might be able to learn something.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so I'm not supposed to defend myself?

You can defend yourself as much as you'd like. I'm just saying that until your story about the ropes is verified, you are my top candidate, that's all.

On a side note, I'm going to Canada for the weekend in about 2-3 hours and won't be back until Sunday evening. Plus it's actually supposed to be nice this weekend! Yay!

[path12]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Raiders Army was first to vote for Swaggs in post #1032.
Lathum was second in post #1033.

For whatever that's worth.

I must say, you are handy to have around. Of course, exactly how some people would play a wolf, but handy nonetheless.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm in the midst of a teaching SIP day which is incredibly painful. Let me throw out a provisional, just in case.

vote St. Cronin

And you were off the boat with Barkeep over night and claphamsa keeps following his vote.

Now is a good opportunity to review who has spent a night off the ship. Maybe that's required for underground indoctrination

First night: Path12
Second night: none.
Third night: Barkeep49 and PurdueBrad; (Sonic Youth was with the cops. All night?)
Fourth night: none.

On the ship during the day is also somewhat suspicious, but we've seen that it would be pretty easy to lie about your whereabouts once you find out where no one sees each other.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by path12

You can defend yourself as much as you'd like. I'm just saying that until your story about the ropes is verified, you are my top candidate, that's all.

well considering we already have sailed to another port I consider it unlikely my story will ever be verifid.

I hope customs strip searches you!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

Not really a good reason, but a collection of minor reasons.

- has voted for me just about every day
- if he turns up guilty, we look hard at Anxiety
- hasn't contributed anything to my understanding of how the game works

I'll chime in a couple of other potential reasons:

- Anxiety vouched for him as "not wolf/underground" per Fortune Teller early in the game
- if the underground get to pick their targets (does Anxiety seem like a pick or a random selection?), then a guy who is early trusted is a tempting target
- if Clap was offered a chance to go wolf, I think he would take it (unlike Anxiety)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I thought the same thing about Anxiety also.

It would definantly be in his charecture to reject the underground, which makes me wonder if he really did.

Abe is a crafty wolf. If it wasn't for the fact I've got such a hard-on for you I'd probably be looking in his direction.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by path12

Abe is a crafty wolf. If it wasn't for the fact I've got such a hard-on for you I'd probably be looking in his direction.

err, about that tour of Seattle...

[st.cronin]

I am thinking about conversion the same way other people are. My assumption HAD been that on day 0 a number of us would become wolves. We didn't see anything nefarious until Lathum claimed the ropes were cut, and we didn't have a kill until Raiders Army, so I may have been wrong about that - but I don't think its the case that the wolves get to pick who they convert. I think our choices determine whether we end up in a conversion situation.

[path12]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

At this point, most of my suspicion is on Path. Unless I missed something (which is completely possible) we still can't account for his whereabouts that 1st night and that means he is our most likely candidate for conversion up to now. If I missed something that clears him, I'm happy to change my vote, but until that happens...

There's nothing to clear me that I'm aware of. I'm as vanilla as a bean though, I've had no options at any point, not found any objects, nada zip zilch. I may be the most clueless player in the game right now.

[st.cronin]

dola, left out a NOT in that first sentence, last post should read:

I am NOT thinking about conversion the same way other people are. My assumption HAD been that on day 0 a number of us would become wolves. We didn't see anything nefarious until Lathum claimed the ropes were cut, and we didn't have a kill until Raiders Army, so I may have been wrong about that - but I don't think its the case that the wolves get to pick who they convert. I think our choices determine whether we end up in a conversion situation.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

err, about that tour of Seattle...

Don't worry, I'll be gentle.

[jeheinz72]

I'm leaning towards voting for one of clap, anxiety or cronin. I can't decide which.

All I know is, this spread of votes isn't looking good in my mind. If the wolves have determined that we need x% to lynch someone, their spreading of their votes is them mitigating our chances of anyone dying (and thus continuing the pattern of most of us being completely in the dark)

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll chime in a couple of other potential reasons:

- Anxiety vouched for him as "not wolf/underground" per Fortune Teller early in the game
- if the underground get to pick their targets (does Anxiety seem like a pick or a random selection?), then a guy who is early trusted is a tempting target
- if Clap was offered a chance to go wolf, I think he would take it (unlike Anxiety)

Anxiety seems like a pick because the underground knew he had just put together "something very potent" as he termed it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

If the wolves have determined that we need x% to lynch someone

I think actually the wolves would be pushing this harder than a villager. The wolves want lynches, the villagers want information - which is sometimes generated by close, spread out votes. The wolves want runaways.

I still think its possible we have normal voting rules, a tie gives us no lynch, and something happened to SY before he could be kicked off the boat.

[KWhit]

I don't think voting Anxiety is a good play today. I tend to believe his story and there's always tomorrow to go after him.

I say that because he said this:

The underground have appraoched me to join them, and claimed they have planted evidence at a crime scene should I choose to rejest them. I am rejecting them, though.

Now, if he's not lying, then I suspect something will happen to him because of the whole 'planted evidence at the crime scene.' If he's taken away or detained by police or something, then his story might be true. If nothing happens, then he's likely lying and we can go after him then.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am thinking about conversion the same way other people are. My assumption HAD been that on day 0 a number of us would become wolves. We didn't see anything nefarious until Lathum claimed the ropes were cut, and we didn't have a kill until Raiders Army, so I may have been wrong about that - but I don't think its the case that the wolves get to pick who they convert. I think our choices determine whether we end up in a conversion situation.

Then how do you explain Anxiety's situation last night with the underground henchmen approaching him for conversion? I don't they can randomly choose who they want, but rather they have a list of people who chose certain actions that they can select from. I think Anxiety said he'd gone shopping and they cornered him in a dark alley, but I don't remember where Path had gone that first night that he couldn't get back on the boat.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola, left out a NOT in that first sentence, last post should read: I am NOT thinking about conversion the same way other people are. My assumption HAD been that on day 0 a number of us would become wolves. We didn't see anything nefarious until Lathum claimed the ropes were cut, and we didn't have a kill until Raiders Army, so I may have been wrong about that - but I don't think its the case that the wolves get to pick who they convert. I think our choices determine whether we end up in a conversion situation.

This would make sense - Anxiety has the completed 'potent' item and is then given a choice by the mechanic of the game to become part of the underground.

I thought that if I had the completed sword I would get to be the hunter or something so I kept it quiet (despite heavy hints to Anxiety) until Anxiety mentioned receiving it.

[st.cronin]

dola, that's one of the reasons I'm suspicious of Barkeep. He's been pushing runaway votes as a strategy for a while now.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think actually the wolves would be pushing this harder than a villager. The wolves want lynches, the villagers want information - which is sometimes generated by close, spread out votes. The wolves want runaways.

I still think its possible we have normal voting rules, a tie gives us no lynch, and something happened to SY before he could be kicked off the boat.

This is my thinking as well.

[Lathum]

I agree with KWhit

Vote Path12

The fact that he was out all the first night make me wonder about him

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

err, about that tour of Seattle...

why in the name of god would you want a tour of Seattle?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Then how do you explain Anxiety's situation last night with the underground henchmen approaching him for conversion?

Well, I don't know what, if anything, I believe about Anxiety's story. But if I believe it completely, it doesn't clash with what I'm saying at all, which is that the Underground didn't PICK him, they were PRESENTED with him because of HIS actions.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't think voting Anxiety is a good play today. I tend to believe his story and there's always tomorrow to go after him.

I say that because he said this:



Now, if he's not lying, then I suspect something will happen to him because of the whole 'planted evidence at the crime scene.' If he's taken away or detained by police or something, then his story might be true. If nothing happens, then he's likely lying and we can go after him then.

This is true - if Anxiety is not lynched, there is a high probability that we find out information by what might happen to him next. Planted evidence, killed for not converting, etc.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, my premise on the game is that "nothing is random". In other words, we get to make choices.

Anxiety's account of the conversion is that he was allowed to make a choice on joining the team - he chose not to join.

I fully expect the first person to join the wolves did so by virtue of their choice in destination and, potentially, their associated task.

In other words, I think it is a combination of "their" choices and "our" choices that determine the conversion.

This also factors into my concerns around Clap ... I'm pretty confident he would have said "hell yeah!" if given a choice to join the wolf team.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola, that's one of the reasons I'm suspicious of Barkeep. He's been pushing runaway votes as a strategy for a while now.

And claphamsa keeps backing him up.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, I don't know what, if anything, I believe about Anxiety's story. But if I believe it completely, it doesn't clash with what I'm saying at all, which is that the Underground didn't PICK him, they were PRESENTED with him because of HIS actions.

Sorry, I misread your original post on this, we are saying the same thing, just in different ways Damn phone ringing and interrupting my ww concentration!

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I agree with KWhit

Vote Path12

The fact that he was out all the first night make me wonder about him

My working theory is that it takes 2 underground to perform a conversion or kill. This is because 2 henchmen cornered Anxiety - that seems important to me (and unique for a WW game, I think).

So I think we should look closely at the people who have been out all night on nights when there weren't wolf kills. It's possible that the wolves were doing other things (conversions, etc) on those nights, but it might be that they couldn't make a kill because they didn't have the number of people required to do so.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Then how do you explain Anxiety's situation last night with the underground henchmen approaching him for conversion? I don't they can randomly choose who they want, but rather they have a list of people who chose certain actions that they can select from. I think Anxiety said he'd gone shopping and they cornered him in a dark alley, but I don't remember where Path had gone that first night that he couldn't get back on the boat.

In that instance, Path said he fell asleep on the beach (IIRC). He definitely went to the beach that day, hence the high vote on Claphamsa that day who also went to the beach.

A fortune teller then told (Anxiety? nfg22?) that claphamsa was not a threat. But then that would immediately make him a good conversion target.

[KWhit]

Gotta run to lunch - be back in an hour or so....

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, my premise on the game is that "nothing is random". In other words, we get to make choices.

Anxiety's account of the conversion is that he was allowed to make a choice on joining the team - he chose not to join.

I fully expect the first person to join the wolves did so by virtue of their choice in destination and, potentially, their associated task.

In other words, I think it is a combination of "their" choices and "our" choices that determine the conversion.

I guess my main point is that I don't THINK that the underground gets to just pick somebody to convert. Which seems like you are thinking the same way. So the argument "such and such was trusted, he'd be a great candidate for conversion" is a silly argument in this game. That's where I'm coming from.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think actually the wolves would be pushing this harder than a villager. The wolves want lynches, the villagers want information - which is sometimes generated by close, spread out votes. The wolves want runaways.

I still think its possible we have normal voting rules, a tie gives us no lynch, and something happened to SY before he could be kicked off the boat.

Correct, but the wolves only want lynches if those lynches are villagers.

So I guess what I'm saying is, if a wolf is in the mix for the lynch, their vote anywhere is effectively just as potent whereas in "regular" WW, it is the most votes.

Now, you're right, we don't know 100% that it's a % based voting thing, but I'm inclined to think it is, since the Day that SY was voted out, he didn't leave immediately as Swaggs did, he had a whole excursion and *then* left the boat. So I see those as two separate events (un-lynched and arrested/gone)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

the Day that SY was voted out, he didn't leave immediately as Swaggs did, he had a whole excursion and *then* left the boat. So I see those as two separate events (un-lynched and arrested/gone)

I don't think this is true, let me pull up the post.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think this is true, let me pull up the post.

Please do, that's how I recall it, but I have been too lazy to check that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why in the name of god would you want a tour of Seattle?

because we are likely moving there