2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[PilotMan]

I was brainstorming this morning after reading an article on voter registration, and I was wondering, assume that the republican party continues its hapless journey behind trump into the void, and that they sort of adopt this nationalistic you must be with us on x, y, and z or else, that how can the democratic party overcome it?

I don't know about the timing, but at some point, acclimating a portion of your opposition to your own way, correctly timed, can be a death blow. So what if millions of democrats suddenly changed party to republican, and then, at the grass roots level, worked to change the dynamic of the party from within? Sort of subverting part of the party, and breaking the more moderate bank of people away from the more nationalistic part. We already see a large bank of opposition to the current path of leadership. We've seen large facebook groups subverted from within, could the same happen at local levels that could actually amount to a shift? Or is this all sort of too much video game strategy?

Further, what sorts of strategy could be leveraged? Or are national level arguments, that are broad, the most effective?

[JediKooter]

The oil answer is only bad if people didn't listen to him explain it. I'm sure the conservatives and republican party will make it sound like as soon as Biden is sworn in, he will hit a switch that shuts down all the oil companies. When in reality he explained, in the debate last night, that it would be an incremental change from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

In my opinion, oil companies can get on board and prepare for this transition, or they can go kicking and screaming into non existence like Tower Records did.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Main thing missing here is that she is articulate, effective, and smart. Couple those with the other demographics and policy matters we associate with her, and she's a major existential threat to the right. Thus, the teardown has to occur as quickly as possible. In much the same way they knew Hillary Clinton was the likely standard bearer for the Democratic party (or "Democrat party" as they'd surely slur) they can see the writing on the wall. AOC has a wide following already, far surpassing her actual station in politics, and she has the cunning to stretch it out far beyond 15 minutes - that is obvious.

So, demonize her as a communist. Slander the "Green New Deal" based on any tiny element it contains. Dig up videos of her having fun as a teenager. Find a tiny thing she said here or there that doesn't hold up out of context. Drum up some innuendo about sexual mores. Find something that felt vaguely "too casual" for the moment. Have at it. Plenty will stick. Not to worry. Your base consists of gullible idiots, and there are plenty more who are persuadable. They'll come around.

This is the gameplan. She's a target.

I'm not convinced she can ever win the WH, but I'm quite certain that she'll be an important political figure for as long as she desires. She's so much better at the politics than Bernie, especially in terms of building relationships with different factions among Dems. Schumer can't have much time left, and AOC has to be one of the frontrunners for that Senate seat if she wants it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I was brainstorming this morning after reading an article on voter registration, and I was wondering, assume that the republican party continues its hapless journey behind trump into the void, and that they sort of adopt this nationalistic you must be with us on x, y, and z or else, that how can the democratic party overcome it?

Restore majority rule. The GOP can't exist as is without the help of all of the counter-majoritarian elements of our system. The key to political moderation is requiring parties to garner more support in order to wield power.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

The oil answer is only bad if people didn't listen to him explain it. I'm sure the conservatives and republican party will make it sound like as soon as Biden is sworn in, he will hit a switch that shuts down all the oil companies. When in reality he explained, in the debate last night, that it would be an incremental change from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

In my opinion, oil companies can get on board and prepare for this transition, or they can go kicking and screaming into non existence like Tower Records did.

It was probably Biden's biggest misstep in the debate and I understood what he was saying, but I don't think he did a great job of explaining it. The fact is we're going to run out of oil from known deposits in about 50 years if we continue use and production at the current pace. As you said, we need to be prepared for the transition that's unavoidable.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

The oil answer is only bad if people didn't listen to him explain it. I'm sure the conservatives and republican party will make it sound like as soon as Biden is sworn in, he will hit a switch that shuts down all the oil companies. When in reality he explained, in the debate last night, that it would be an incremental change from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

In my opinion, oil companies can get on board and prepare for this transition, or they can go kicking and screaming into non existence like Tower Records did.

Thing is centrists don't shut down oil companies. They don't. I mean it's nice that he is incorporating more progressive ideals but I think he'll more open up alternative sources like wind and solar but nuclear as well and anything else scientists develop.

[GrantDawg]

AOC will be in the Senate in the next ten years or so.

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[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

AOC will be in the Senate in the next ten years or so.

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is the senate considered a promotion?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

AOC will be in the Senate in the next ten years or so.

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I think she can win Schumer's seat when he retires, but if she doesn't she could be locked out of the senate for quite a while. Gillibrand is only 53 and whoever replaces Schumer would probably have three or four terms available. Things happen, people get federal jobs or run for Governor, but Senate seat windows are often pretty small.

If Schumer runs for another term in 2022, which seems likely, I don't think she'll wait in the House for a promotion attempt. I expect her next step up is the NY Gov.

[larrymcg421]

The GOP has made a huge mistake in going after AOC as their #1 villain. If they had picked Omar as the bigger target, it may have worked better, because Omar doesn't have the same political skills and can back her way into the wrong statement more often. They mention Omar every now and then, but something about AOC just draws them in. They can't resist focusing so much of their energy on her. And then what people (even those who don't love her politics) see is someone who is smart, prepared, and engaging.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...not all that important a skill in actually holding office...

One of the major flaws of our entire system is that the intersection of "skills/talent/personality needed to govern effectively" and "skills/talent/personality needed to run for office and win an election" isn't all that large.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Main thing missing here is that she is articulate, effective, and smart. Couple those with the other demographics and policy matters we associate with her, and she's a major existential threat to the right.

I strongly disagree with her political philosophy, but AOC is actually doing what she was elected to do, representing the ideology of the constituency that put her in office.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It was probably Biden's biggest misstep in the debate and I understood what he was saying, but I don't think he did a great job of explaining it. The fact is we're going to run out of oil from known deposits in about 50 years if we continue use and production at the current pace. As you said, we need to be prepared for the transition that's unavoidable.

And to me, as missteps go, it wasn't that bad of one. He has plenty of time to explain it better the next couple of weeks if it comes up again. Yes indeed it will be running out to extremely hard to get to within our lifetime. That's why there's such a freak out when trump accuses Biden of wanting to ban fracking. It's ironic that the oil companies will soon go the way of the dinosaur or at least their main product will.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Thing is centrists don't shut down oil companies. They don't. I mean it's nice that he is incorporating more progressive ideals but I think he'll more open up alternative sources like wind and solar but nuclear as well and anything else scientists develop.

I agree, Biden more than likely won't shut anything down. The closest he will get to that, is putting the ball in motion for that to eventually happen. He did give a timeline of 2050, but, not having all the details, I don't know if that is supposed to be a drop dead date or meeting certain criteria by then. It does sound like is very open to more solar and wind, which is great and I'm not opposed to more nuclear, but, I won't hold my breath on that happening.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

In my opinion, oil companies can get on board and prepare for this transition, or they can go kicking and screaming into non existence like Tower Records did.

Definitely, that's going to happen whether they want it to or not and they know it. They're actually already preparing in some ways. Like most businesses though, what they want is to keep making as much money as possible now until oil is no longer viable.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I don't know about the timing, but at some point, acclimating a portion of your opposition to your own way, correctly timed, can be a death blow. So what if millions of democrats suddenly changed party to republican, and then, at the grass roots level, worked to change the dynamic of the party from within? Sort of subverting part of the party, and breaking the more moderate bank of people away from the more nationalistic part. We already see a large bank of opposition to the current path of leadership. We've seen large facebook groups subverted from within, could the same happen at local levels that could actually amount to a shift? Or is this all sort of too much video game strategy?

Further, what sorts of strategy could be leveraged? Or are national level arguments, that are broad, the most effective?

On the first part, I don't see that working on this scale. When someone disagrees with the party line, they just get jettisoned. See: the views of some conservatives on John Roberts, etc. Some things can be coopted. A major national political party would need to be convinced en masse. The regional differences within such a structure would make any sort of coordinated effort, even if executed perfectly, unsuccessful.

I think you have to basically ignore the intractable parts and just talk to those who are persuadable, combined with motivating those who aren't committed ideologues for the opposition. I think it's also important to be careful what you stand for, but then actually stand for it. The tough question right now for Democrats isn't how to win - they're going to do that for probably the next four years at least. It's how to govern. How hard do you push on key issues without alienating part of your coalition.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Definitely, that's going to happen whether they want it to or not and they know it. They're actually already preparing in some ways. Like most businesses though, what they want is to keep making as much money as possible now until oil is no longer viable.

100% agree with you on that. The smart ones will realize all the subsidies will go towards solar and wind and they will shift their business models to those, but, will definitely squeeze out every single drop of oil they can on the way there.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

AOC will be in the Senate in the next ten years or so.

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hell at this rate she'll become pope

[ISiddiqui]

Speaking of Pennsylvania...

https://twitter.com/aabramson/status...ub-6sA7nv9tCQg

Returned ballots in PA so far, per PA SOS Kathy Boockvar:
•Dem = 1,023,402
•Rep = 293,318
•Other = 132,680

[albionmoonlight]

That's scary. It does not look like PA will have enough in person Dem votes to overcome the in person GOP votes. And Trump will sue to stop counting the mail in votes. And the SCOTUS 6 might let him.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Definitely, that's going to happen whether they want it to or not and they know it. They're actually already preparing in some ways. Like most businesses though, what they want is to keep making as much money as possible now until oil is no longer viable.

They started this back during the Obama administration. The big energy companies delayed the government from getting in bed with upstart alternative energy, while they started pouring money into it to play catch up and grab market share. Right now, the oil/energy companies are on par, and certainly looking to diversify their companies so they don't disappear.

[ISiddiqui]

I don't think there is any way a SCOTUS stops counting of mail in ballots which have been received by election day (and +3 days if postmarked by election day due to previous ruling).

I think folks are a bit too overly frightened about those sort of things...

Because you know if that does happen, the only real remedy is violent rebellion to stop a coup, right?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Because you know if that does happen, the only real remedy is violent rebellion to stop a coup, right?

However, how many people think stopping a coup is worth fighting for, maybe losing a job for, or, even, potentially dying for? That number isn't 0. But is it enough?

SI

[albionmoonlight]

I am probably too frightened.

But the GOP has said that this is their plan.

And they only need 5 Justices to make it work.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I am probably too frightened.

But the GOP has said that this is their plan.

And they only need 5 Justices to make it work.

Trump transparently tells you what Trump is going to do. And he's said that's what he's going to do

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

The oil answer is only bad if people didn't listen to him explain it. I'm sure the conservatives and republican party will make it sound like as soon as Biden is sworn in, he will hit a switch that shuts down all the oil companies. When in reality he explained, in the debate last night, that it would be an incremental change from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

In my opinion, oil companies can get on board and prepare for this transition, or they can go kicking and screaming into non existence like Tower Records did.

I don't know why this was a big deal. Oil companies poll extremely low and oil subsidies poll even lower.

The oil industry is dying no matter what any President says.

[albionmoonlight]

It also isn't going to be quite as transparent as "don't count these votes because they are from Democrats."

The GOP controlled PA legislature will come up with some flimsy pre-text reason to exclude a bunch of mailed-in ballots that just so happen to be Dem leaning ("There were irregularities in the collection" or some shit). That ends up with a lawsuit by one side or the other which all ends up being resolved by 5 or 6 Justices deciding that "deference to the state legislature" means that it can do whatever it wants and the ballots don't count.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It also isn't going to be quite as transparent as "don't count these votes because they are from Democrats."

The GOP controlled PA legislature will come up with some flimsy pre-text reason to exclude a bunch of mailed-in ballots that just so happen to be Dem leaning ("There were irregularities in the collection" or some shit). That ends up with a lawsuit by one side or the other which all ends up being resolved by 5 or 6 Justices deciding that "deference to the state legislature" means that it can do whatever it wants and the ballots don't count.

I'm sure they've been dreaming up these scenarios for months. And it'll be some stupid shiny bauble that hangs people up: "the mailman who picked them all up is a Democrat" or "We have some grainy video of something potentially untoward going on". And all the reporting will be about the mailman or the poll worker rather than the substance or the impact. Because who cares that we're about to overturn an election when we can find out that some guy smoked pot 25 years ago.

SI

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know why this was a big deal. Oil companies poll extremely low and oil subsidies poll even lower.

The oil industry is dying no matter what any President says.

I agree, it's really not a big deal. On the scale of 'Bad Looks', this would be like a 1 in my opinion. The spin though will make it seem like it's much worse than it actually is. Is there really that many oil/petroleum jobs in Pennsylvania anymore? Seems like it would be more worrisome for Biden if it was 1902 than 2020.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know why this was a big deal. Oil companies poll extremely low and oil subsidies poll even lower.

The oil industry is dying no matter what any President says.

Oil is not going to be what it was, I agree with that. However, there are too many uses for oil that as an industry it will not entirely go away. Plastics, lubricants, etc.

Oil is too valuable to burn, but it has been the best fuel for our economy for the past 100 years.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

I agree, it's really not a big deal. On the scale of 'Bad Looks', this would be like a 1 in my opinion. The spin though will make it seem like it's much worse than it actually is. Is there really that many oil/petroleum jobs in Pennsylvania anymore? Seems like it would be more worrisome for Biden if it was 1902 than 2020.

PA had a huge boom when they were drilling in the Marcellus Shale 3-4 years ago. Ohio was doing more recently but that was in the Utica Shale.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm sure they've been dreaming up these scenarios for months. And it'll be some stupid shiny bauble that hangs people up: "the mailman who picked them all up is a Democrat" or "We have some grainy video of something potentially untoward going on". And all the reporting will be about the mailman or the poll worker rather than the substance or the impact. Because who cares that we're about to overturn an election when we can find out that some guy smoked pot 25 years ago.

SI

I'll start by saying I don't think this will happen.

But, what if the plan is to sew as much chaos as possible, including violence from the Proud Boys and similar militia groups. At some point, Barr and state legislatures step in and say the vote counts have to be paused because of the danger to poll workers. At that point court decisions start coming in saying that counts of some votes are invalid. GOP state legislatures in PA, MI, WI vote to follow the Constitution and choose a slate of delegates.

Trump "wins."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Oil is not going to be what it was, I agree with that. However, there are too many uses for oil that as an industry it will not entirely go away. Plastics, lubricants, etc.

Oil is too valuable to burn, but it has been the best fuel for our economy for the past 100 years.

It'll be around but it's still a dying industry. Likely hit peak consumption in 2019 and it's downhill from there. Prices are low and their business model now relies on handouts from the government.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think she can win Schumer's seat when he retires, but if she doesn't she could be locked out of the senate for quite a while. Gillibrand is only 53 and whoever replaces Schumer would probably have three or four terms available. Things happen, people get federal jobs or run for Governor, but Senate seat windows are often pretty small.

If Schumer runs for another term in 2022, which seems likely, I don't think she'll wait in the House for a promotion attempt. I expect her next step up is the NY Gov.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gillibrand isn't a cabinet secretary in the near future. Governor of New York might be a possibility, or even mayor of New York. I think she is eyeing something more federal, though. She is very young, so who can say? Whatever it is, she is going to be among the youngest people to ever win *insert major office*.

[ISiddiqui]

I don't think Ocasio Cortez has to strike NOW. I mean she's 31. So even if Schumer were to run for only one more term (he'll be 70 in November) in 2022, she'll be 39 when the seat will potentially open. And a decade in the House would really help with Upstate NY.

And yes, Gillibrand may get a Cabinet slot which would accelerate that timeline.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

PA had a huge boom when they were drilling in the Marcellus Shale 3-4 years ago. Ohio was doing more recently but that was in the Utica Shale.

Ah ok cool. I've mostly heard about what's going in the Dakotas and haven't heard much about Pennsylvania and Ohio. Now I know!

[JPhillips]

We're not supposed to have a socialist — look we're not going to be a socialist nation. We're not going to have a socialist president, especially a female socialist president, we're not gonna' have it, we're not gonna' put up with it."

Trump working hard to solve his problem with suburban women.

[RainMaker]

Trying to paint the guy who spent like 3 decades fighting for credit card companies and banks as a socialist.

[GrantDawg]

Ok, watched Borat. Rudy definitely wasn't spanking it. It was a set up.

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[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It'll be around but it's still a dying industry. Likely hit peak consumption in 2019 and it's downhill from there. Prices are low and their business model now relies on handouts from the government.

I highly doubt it, several of the big names have already gotten out. I think you're going to see some smaller not so well known companies move in and take it over. I will not be what it was, but I think it is going to be more stable over the long haul.

[Brian Swartz]

If you're talking worldwide, I don't understand how anyone could think oil is past peak consumption. Developing nations are still going nowhere but up in terms of their use. I don't think we hit peak consumption until the demand can't be met and the price spikes much higher than we've seen it. My best guess is the early 30s for that.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ok, watched Borat. Rudy definitely wasn't spanking it. It was a set up.

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We thought he was doing his best to reanimate the dead, so to speak.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

We thought he was doing his best to reanimate the dead, so to speak.

I feel his pain. Thank God for boner pills.

[albionmoonlight]

I walk the dog pretty much every night. And every night there are more yard signs popping up. Certainly more than I’ve ever seen. A real diversity, too. Biden. Trump. Black Lives Matter. Back The Blue.

Based on that, I agree with those turn out models that predict a significant increase over 2016.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ok, watched Borat. Rudy definitely wasn't spanking it. It was a set up.

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Still plenty in there to show he's a creeper

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

That's scary. It does not look like PA will have enough in person Dem votes to overcome the in person GOP votes. And Trump will sue to stop counting the mail in votes. And the SCOTUS 6 might let him.

As a PA resident, I wouldn’t be too concerned because the state has been really behind on getting people their ballots. My wife and I registered for mail-voting several months ago, received an email on 09/22 that we should receive our ballots in 10-14 days but did not actually receive our ballots until three days ago. So, I suspect this count is pretty behind significantly.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ok, watched Borat. Rudy definitely wasn't spanking it. It was a set up.

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Haven't watched it but why didn't Borat continue until there was "more evidence" to "pop up"?

If true, I'm not going to fault a currently single Guiliani for hitting on an attractive woman. He's got a girlfriend but I'm sure she is well aware of what she was getting into and may have been the other woman at one time, so hard to feel sorry for her.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Haven't watched it but why didn't Borat continue until there was "more evidence" to "pop up"?

If true, I'm not going to fault a currently single Guiliani for hitting on an attractive woman. He's got a girlfriend but I'm sure she is well aware of what she was getting into and may have been the other woman at one time, so hard to feel sorry for her.

I am pretty sure that wasn't "popping up" without pharmaceutical help.

[GrantDawg]

This is really good:

Young people are showing up like woah pic.twitter.com/FvQRN3dmjZ

— Ahmed Shihab-Eldin (@ASE) October 24, 2020

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ok, watched Borat. Rudy definitely wasn't spanking it. It was a set up.

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/agree - he was tucking his shirt back in his pants.

[Lathum]

Shouldn't the presidents personal lawyer be a little more cautious about putting himself in compromising positions? We are all speculating if he was fondling himself but the real story should be why is he in that pot in the first place?