The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Thomkal]

House votes 357-22 to bar Trump from exiting NATO. the 22 were all Repubs and amongst the usual suspects.

[Thomkal]

Meanwhile in Venezuela:


404 - StoryLine

[Edward64]

Not sure how it'll play out but kinda like the move. Don't think it'll be enough though ... probably need to make a deal with the military somehow.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/polit...ela/index.html

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that he is recognizing Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela.

"In its role as the only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people, the National Assembly invoked the country's constitution to declare Nicolas Maduro illegitimate, and the office of the presidency therefore vacant. The people of Venezuela have courageously spoken out against Maduro and his regime and demanded freedom and the rule of law," Trump said in a statement recognizing Guaido as interim president of Venezuela.

Trump also urged other governments to recognize Guaido, adding that he "will continue to use the full weight of United States economic and diplomatic power to press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy."

Trump continued by saying his administration will "continue to hold the illegitimate Maduro regime directly responsible for any threats it may pose to the safety of the Venezuelan people."

The move comes nearly two weeks after Maduro was inaugurated for a second term that the US, dozens of other countries and the Venezuelan opposition has decried as illegitimate. Since then, Trump has mulled recognizing Guaido -- the president of the National Assembly -- as the country's legitimate president, and top Trump administration officials gradually ratcheted up their public statements, laying the groundwork for this step.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

House votes 357-22 to bar Trump from exiting NATO. the 22 were all Repubs and amongst the usual suspects.

Next President will have his/her work cut out for him/her to repair relations. I am okay with playing a lesser role in NATO (UK-Germany-France are big-enough-boys/girls) but not exiting it.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Meanwhile in Venezuela:


404 - StoryLine

It does appear most of the world is with us on this one and Trump isn't just wildly tweeting. Russia, Cuba, Bolivia and I guess Mexico still recognizing Maduro, but the other South American countries, Canada, France all publicly recognizing Guaido too.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by bob

Do you know anyone that would have voted republican but won't now because of this shut down (or the other way around)?

This is the problem with a lack of party options. There is no soft landing spot for anyone on either side. If abortion is a big deal to you, you are not going to switch who to vote for. If gun control is a big issue, you are not going to change who you vote for.

I am not advocating having 10 different parties, but having another couple of options would be good.

[NobodyHere]

Are things coming to a head in Venezuala?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/...sident-n961771

Maduro wants US diplomats to leave and Trump is saying Maduro is illegitimate.

[Thomkal]

Canada has now recognized the interim president of Venezuela

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Are things coming to a head in Venezuala?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/...sident-n961771

Maduro wants US diplomats to leave and Trump is saying Maduro is illegitimate.

Trump has issued a statement denying the order from Maduro

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

This is the problem with a lack of party options. There is no soft landing spot for anyone on either side. If abortion is a big deal to you, you are not going to switch who to vote for. If gun control is a big issue, you are not going to change who you vote for.

I am not advocating having 10 different parties, but having another couple of options would be good.

I think the problem is less having two parties as it is having districts that have been gerrymandered to hell so that most districts are not that competitive. This pushes representatives to the edges in those safe districts and causes governing at the extremes rather than by consensus. In a lot of ways that made 2018 really interesting, not because there was a blue wave, but because a lot of safe red seats were competitive with more moderate democrats. Competitive districts hold representatives accountable and hopefully make governing better.

[Thomkal]

Trump caves on having the State of the Union address elsewhere and will wait until the Shutdown is over:


As the Shutdown was going on, Nancy Pelosi asked me to give the State of the Union Address. I agreed. She then changed her mind because of the Shutdown, suggesting a later date. This is her prerogative - I will do the Address when the Shutdown is over. I am not looking for an....


....alternative venue for the SOTU Address because there is no venue that can compete with the history, tradition and importance of the House Chamber. I look forward to giving a “great” State of the Union Address in the near future!


Pelosi:1 Trump 0

[kingfc22]

whenever he gives on something his tweet is written by a handler. I’ll give it less than 24 hours before we see Trump’s real response via a tweet.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

whenever he gives on something his tweet is written by a handler. I’ll give it less than 24 hours before we see Trump’s real response via a tweet.

Yeah and if people rub it in that he lost this battle, he might change his mind again

[Edward64]

Lots of LATAM & SA countries aligning with the US.

I'm sure Mexico has national interests in mind to not follow suit but WTF about Turkey.

I do not believe the US should be the world's policeman but this is in our sphere of influence, they have a lot of oil, they have a legit humanitarian crisis, and its a good opportunity/relatively low risk to flex our muscle. If we are able to successfully lead the charge to replace Maduro with a friendly alternative, its the smart thing to do and will pay dividends for years in the future.

I sure hope we aren't bluffing and will act if Maduro does something against our diplomats. A nice Panama-like outcome would be ideal.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/polit...own/index.html

Wednesday's rapid-fire developments come as several countries moved in concert with the United States to welcome Guaido, who has won recognition from Canada, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile and the Organization of American States.

Besides adversaries China and Russia, key US allies such as Mexico have not moved to recognize Guaido, however, and Turkey's leader has offered Maduro his backing.

European Council President Donald Tusk expressed support for Guaido on Wednesday and called on all of Europe to join him, while the European Union's foreign policy chief, calling Guaido the "president," urged that his civil rights, freedom and safety and that of all members of the National Assembly be respected.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, is intimating that it will back its political move with muscle.

"All options (are) on the table," Trump told reporters Wednesday when asked if he might use military force to ensure the outcome he wants in Venezuela. "All options, always, all options are on the table."

[Edward64]

Interesting Fox poll. I'm just quoting a couple snippets but there is a lot of data.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...ears-in-office

At the same time, a plurality believes the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government in the 2016 election (46 percent yes vs. 39 percent no).
:
Voters approve of the job Special Counsel Robert Mueller is doing by a 15-point margin (49-34 percent), while by a 24-point spread, voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the investigation (30-54 percent). Those ratings represent a 7-point decline in approval of the investigation (since December) and a 6-point decline in approval of the administration’s handling of the investigation (since July).
:
When given the chance to name whatever they think should be President Trump’s top priority, Republicans say immigration/build the wall (31 percent), national security (16 percent), and the economy (15 percent). For Democrats, the list is: resign (20 percent), end the shutdown (15 percent), and unite the country (10 percent).

[JPhillips]

I think this shutdown is really hurting Trump. His whole persona is built on dominance and he looks weak in his battles with Pelosi. For a guy all about brand, I think it could do real, lasting damage.

[Kodos]

It's kinda funny. When I mentally picture Trump, Alec Baldwin's version comes to mind quicker than the real Trump.

[Lathum]

Air Traffic Controllers, Pilots, Flight Attendants Detail Serious Safety Concerns Due to Shutdown - Association of Flight Attendants-CWA

[JPhillips]

The abuse details around Sen. Joni Ernst's divorce are terrible. You never know what's going on behind closed doors. I hope she's able to find peace moving forward.

[JPhillips]

George Will takes a shot at the GOP and Graham.

[Logan]

I know the wall was pretty much the issue for him on the campaign but considering it's gone from "Mexico is paying" to not even being able to force through us paying it ourselves, I'm surprised Trump hasn't just thrown in the towel on it yet. He can figure out a way to get his most loyal subjects to blindly buy whatever he spins as the reason, and any losses he suffers among that portion of his base could be made up for with the portion of the party who is already out on him but would still prefer any R over a D.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Logan

I know the wall was pretty much the issue for him on the campaign but considering it's gone from "Mexico is paying" to not even being able to force through us paying it ourselves, I'm surprised Trump hasn't just thrown in the towel on it yet. He can figure out a way to get his most loyal subjects to blindly buy whatever he spins as the reason, and any losses he suffers among that portion of his base could be made up for with the portion of the party who is already out on him but would still prefer any R over a D.

He's not giving up because if the wall actually gets built, every time you see it or talk about it, you'll think of him. I think it was Lathum said it, it is his monument. Fits with his ego.

[Edward64]

This should be interesting!

Don't think he is bluffing.

Exclusive: White House preparing draft national emergency order, has identified $7 billion for wall - CNNPolitics

The White House is preparing a draft proclamation for President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency along the southern border and has identified more than $7 billion in potential funds for his signature border wall should he go that route, according to internal documents reviewed by CNN.

Trump has not ruled out using his authority to declare a national emergency and direct the Defense Department to construct a border wall as Congress and the White House fight over a deal to end the government shutdown. But while Trump's advisers remain divided on the issue, the White House has been moving forward with alternative plans that would bypass Congress.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Don't think he is bluffing.

I don't think that the bluffing/not bluffing framework works with him. That would require the ability to make plans and hold them in his head. He's stupid and mercurial. He can't bluff because he has no idea what he will or won't do until he does it.

[miked]

In theory, I actually wish the house would pass a budget that reduces our bloated defense budget and give Trump is starter wall money. The national emergency thing sets terrible precedents, but taking from defense makes the most sense.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

This should be interesting!

Don't think he is bluffing.

Exclusive: White House preparing draft national emergency order, has identified $7 billion for wall - CNNPolitics

My prediction is it would get shot down by a lower court and then the Supreme Court would refuse to hear the appeal.

[QuikSand]

It's not absurd to imagine a day when President Harris (or whomever) declares a national emergency over climate change (or fill in the left-leaning issue to your liking) and says she has the authority based on the action of this dimwitted administration to simply trample on the other branches of government, and exert executive will to fund and execute priorities at her leisure based on such a declaration.

This is potentially much larger public policy than the "nuclear effect" in the Senate. And that is/was a huge deal.

[QuikSand]

...I had a talk with a staunch elected Democrat last night, who basically said "I hope Trump just declares his emergency, opens up government, funds the wall, and loses in court over it."

As repellent as that process is to me, and that's a lot, I think that could actually be the best outcome here.

[PilotMan]

I don't think you're wrong Quick. With any of it.

[Ben E Lou]

Roger Stone indicted.

[GoldenCrest Games]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's not absurd to imagine a day when President Harris (or whomever) declares a national emergency over climate change.

If the shutdown/wall fight ends with a national emergency declaration, I think it's safe to assume that this prediction is near 100% certainty.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Roger Stone indicted.

And Mueller claims to have the goods showing Stone was acting as an intermediary between Assange and the Trump campaign.

[CrimsonFox]

can they PLEASE just arrest McConnell. Just shut off his oxygen supply or something

[Ben E Lou]

Wonder if this is about to be relevant...

“I will never testify against Trump.” This statement was recently made by Roger Stone, essentially stating that he will not be forced by a rogue and out of control prosecutor to make up lies and stories about “President Trump.” Nice to know that some people still have “guts!”

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 3, 2018

[PilotMan]

I laughed my ass off last night when I saw that trupm flipped flopped again on the SoU. Apparently now, he will be giving the address next week and he will be giving it to congress.



Pelosi was like...na.


Open the govt back up.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Roger Stone indicted.

And his lawyer already complaining about the SWAT team waking stone up at 6 am to arrest him. Awww poor baby.


Thought they might be ready to make a move in Stone. Corsi's stepson went before the grand jury yesterday in a rare Thursday appearance.

[JPhillips]

The FAA is canceling incoming flights to LaGuardia due to the lack of air traffic controllers.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The FAA is canceling incoming flights to LaGuardia due to the lack of air traffic controllers.

Better than a plane crash.

[Thomkal]

Stone NYC's home raided by the FBI too.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Better than a plane crash.

Absolutely. We don't need a real-life version of Breaking Bad season 2.

I don't think a day of this is enough to end the shutdown, but if it continues and spreads I expect the GOP Senate will cave pretty quickly.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump's cabinet members just issued a statement urging Americans to buy their own private planes for travel until the shutdown is over and the FAA can be re-staffed.

[digamma]

Private jet lessors will 'work along' with you.

[Ben E Lou]

Tweet. Of. The. Day.

FBI arrested my neighbor Roger before my morning jog, I’ve only seen shit like that in movies, crazy to start to my Friday

— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) January 25, 2019

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The FAA is canceling incoming flights to LaGuardia due to the lack of air traffic controllers.

Newark and Philly too

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Tweet. Of. The. Day.

FBI arrested my neighbor Roger before my morning jog, I’ve only seen shit like that in movies, crazy to start to my Friday

— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) January 25, 2019

There is literally nothing the writers of this story aren't willing to include.

[Lathum]

I fly in to Newark tomorrow. All I am seeing is delays. Anyone have a link?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I fly in to Newark tomorrow. All I am seeing is delays. Anyone have a link?

FAA has ended the ground stop at LaGuardia, but still expect delays. Newark has just been delays too from what I've seen:


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/25/faa-...a-workers.html

[Thomkal]

Bail set for Stone at $250,000 and he is limited in his travels to FL, NY, DC, and VA

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I fly in to Newark tomorrow. All I am seeing is delays. Anyone have a link?

What time of day is your flight. Typically, especially in Newark, early flights will be on time, and delays will build through the day. If you've got an afternoon or evening flight, you're likely going to take some sort of delay. A lot of delays are built into the schedules, but with this development today, I'd expect a little bit longer than typical.


Edit to add: Ground metering programs are the kinds of delays we see these days. Flights are held on the ground if the airport has to stunt the arrival rates for any reason. Much better than holding and diverting. Easier for ATC too.

[spleen1015]

I used to travel to Parsippany for work by flying into Newark. It has to be the worst airport in America.