werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[Alan T]

There is a difference between lying as a villager in a way that keeps the wolves guessing, and lying as a villager in a way that likely will either get you lynched or out your own seer unecessarily.

Lying about having a certain item, or performing various roles, or even lying about your role is fine within some regards. I remember a game that someone was a seer and lied about their role making it sound much less powerful in an attempt to try to get information out to people without making them a huge target for the wolves..

Lying to say you are the seer when your neck is on the line and you're about to go down seems like none of those things to me.

I don't have my mind made up about you yet Barkeep.. I'm a bit puzzled about your angle here though, I have to be honest. I guess we will see how things go, but if you are good, you are definitly seeing things from an extremely different viewpoint than I am as just a vanilla villager.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We're not going to get a bad guy with Neon. I as a wolf would never stick my neck out, when there's been no suspicion on me, to defend Neon simply because of the suspicion, as has already happened, that would follow, whether or not he's good.

I maintain that Neon is likely good, I know I'm good. I've defended Neon because I don't think it makes sense to kill villagers. Further, I think in the long run that I don't like the idea of villagers having less plays in their playbooks than the wolves. Blade showed us that a villager could lie, for the benefit of the village, in multiple games. I don't see why this is different.

I maintain that voting for DT and having him move the vote to someone else does us the most good. Neon is the wrong way to go today. Go ahead and think that I'm a wolf because of it. Fine. But that's the truth and if you decide to do the lynch Neon, he comes up good so BK must be a wolf, let's lynch him, we'll be done three villagers in our votes with no information gained. Two days of easy votes is not a good thing.

i don't think people think that you're a wolf.

if people want to start a 2nd list of say...who i should duke the vote onto, i'd be happy to do that and go with the village's majority opinion there.

[oliegirl]

I'm sticking with my Neon vote...and if he starts howling when we lynch him, then Barkeep is next on my list of suspects.

[Telle]

I'm not sure what to think of Barkeep. I think at the very least he's someone to keep an eye on.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I'm sticking with my Neon vote...and if he starts howling when we lynch him, then Barkeep is next on my list of suspects.

See, I don't necessarily agree with this.. I think if Neon ends up a wolf, I probably will less likely suspect Barkeep. I doubt on day 2 a wolf would come out in strong support of another wolf that there is a mountain of evidence for. In that situation you'd more likely just write them off and move on.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

See, I don't necessarily agree with this.. I think if Neon ends up a wolf, I probably will less likely suspect Barkeep. I doubt on day 2 a wolf would come out in strong support of another wolf that there is a mountain of evidence for. In that situation you'd more likely just write them off and move on.

Agreed.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Alan T

See, I don't necessarily agree with this.. I think if Neon ends up a wolf, I probably will less likely suspect Barkeep. I doubt on day 2 a wolf would come out in strong support of another wolf that there is a mountain of evidence for. In that situation you'd more likely just write them off and move on.

I disagree...why else would Barkeep be so quick to defend Neon? If Neon turns out to be a wolf, I really don't see that there is any other reason other than Barkeep also being a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're just voting for me because our wolf experience in the last game has given you a heightened sense of "Chief Rum is a wolf"-itis.

It's just Munchausen, though. I'm not a wolf. Of course, I'm not the smooth mover who lasted to the end of that game, am I?

Well, don't worry. It looks like I drew some heat for that vote, for whatever reason. You didn't tell me you were such a respected villager when we were PMing last game -- we could have used that! Anyway, I'm only caught up as far as the post I'm replying to, and at this point, it's looking like NC will get my vote -- I'd rather save the duke for later -- why waste him on a day we're all in agreement?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Neon signed his own death warrant. Why would the wolves try to kill someone who is going to get lynched the next day? And even if he's the convert, what's the point in wasting the kill on him? Converted or not, he gets lynched tomorrow.

Unless you're planning on campaigning to save him. In which case, I'll probably vote for you the next day after that. Sorry, this is open and close.

How would the wolves know that Neon was going to be lynched today? Remember we're on a 24-hour deadline. Unless the wolves could submit a night action somehow after deadline? I seem to recall Lathum making a post calling for night actions ASAP, after deadline.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

How would the wolves know that Neon was going to be lynched today? Remember we're on a 24-hour deadline. Unless the wolves could submit a night action somehow after deadline? I seem to recall Lathum making a post calling for night actions ASAP, after deadline.

Because he claimed to be the seer. If they targeted him the first day and he was protected, I think he would be a goner by day 2

[st.cronin]

I don't understand the argument for voting for DT. That seems more wolfish than defending Neon.

If DT is not the duke, he'll end up lynched sooner or later.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Because he claimed to be the seer. If they targeted him the first day and he was protected, I think he would be a goner by day 2

Except...didn't the wolves think he actually WAS the seer at that point? This is all assuming he's not a wolf, right? What made him a goner by Day 2 is not that he didn't die -- it's that the seer was lynched Day 1...right? I might not be following this perfectly, since I am hungry, but I'll check in again after lunch.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Except...didn't the wolves think he actually WAS the seer at that point? This is all assuming he's not a wolf, right? What made him a goner by Day 2 is not that he didn't die -- it's that the seer was lynched Day 1...right? I might not be following this perfectly, since I am hungry, but I'll check in again after lunch.

True, but I would imagine the real seer would have scanned NC anyways and if he showed up a normal villager, would have left him alone. If he was shown to be someone other then a villager, he probably would have been deadset on lynching NC. We won't really know either way since NC lied and we outed the real seer

[path12]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I disagree...why else would Barkeep be so quick to defend Neon? If Neon turns out to be a wolf, I really don't see that there is any other reason other than Barkeep also being a wolf.

It's way too early for a wolf to come out and publicly defend another wolf. They put two of them at risk instead of possibly just the one with Neon. No reason if Barkeep is a wolf to come out and defend, so I lean towards BK being good right now.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

*ding ding* winner

This is making me waver on my initial vote. DT said this first before he actually came out and said it. I think that holding off on DT is probably the best avenue provided NC isn't the bodyguard (which I think is a fairly safe bet as this moment.)

unvote - DaddyTorgo

[MrBug708]

Dola, my above post is NC calling out DT as the duke role

[MrBug708]

Lathum - Question

If the bartender gets one wolf drunk, can they still kill a person at night? Or does another wolf just get to kill a person that night?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Lathum - Question

If the bartender gets one wolf drunk, can they still kill a person at night? Or does another wolf just get to kill a person that night?

It seems like a worthless ability if the wolves could just change who was doing the killing. Rather not a worthless ability, strictly an anti-villager ability, which I don't think to be the case as it's a villager role.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Lathum - Question

If the bartender gets one wolf drunk, can they still kill a person at night? Or does another wolf just get to kill a person that night?

can't say

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

It seems like a worthless ability if the wolves could just change who was doing the killing. Rather not a worthless ability, strictly an anti-villager ability, which I don't think to be the case as it's a villager role.

It's just rather confusing. I havent played in so long but do the wolves pick someone to kill another person? Or is random on who Lathum picks and if the bartender gets lucky, does it stop the kill?

Obviously Lathum can't say, so who knows really

[Lathum]

updated vote count

Neon_Chaos-8- DaddyTorgo (370), PurdeuBrad (373), Telle (367), St.Cronin (402), ChiefRum (455), HoopsGuy (461), OlieGirl (481), ArlingtonColt (491)

DaddyTorgo-3- Crim (384), EagleFan (395), Path12 (425)

[Lathum]

I will be out until close to the deadline.

If someone can post a vote count near the deadline that would be very helpfull in getting the results out quicker.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

True, but I would imagine the real seer would have scanned NC anyways and if he showed up a normal villager, would have left him alone. If he was shown to be someone other then a villager, he probably would have been deadset on lynching NC. We won't really know either way since NC lied and we outed the real seer

I'm with Alan. If I'm the real seer, I don't scan NC. I assume he's a wolf trying to save himself, and let things run their course, while working on trying to find the next wolf.

VOTE NEON_CHAOS

[DaddyTorgo]

might as well write it up now lathum.

neon's a goner

[Raiders Army]

wow. a lot of posts. I've got some reading to do.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

It's way too early for a wolf to come out and publicly defend another wolf. They put two of them at risk instead of possibly just the one with Neon. No reason if Barkeep is a wolf to come out and defend, so I lean towards BK being good right now.

This is my biggest problem I'm having right now.. and I guess will be the 25 million dollar question for me at some point... I just have a hard time seeing a good reason as a good guy or bad guy to make the play Barkeep is making. I'm really struggling to see his point in his arguement (which he started making before we knew neon was bad, before we found out RPI was the seer, etc)..

Barkeep is speaking in absolutes, saying there is 0% chance that neon is bad, and speaks as if thats a forgone conclusion.. He puts himself on the line defending someone who it feels almost aparently is bad at this point...

It almost makes me wonder if he is using the waaaaay out in front of your face wolf strat where you do the most obvious thing ever to make people think its too obvious for a wolf to do. I guess we'll see what happens with Neon.. if Neon ends up a wolf as I figure, Im not going to push barkeep much, but I definitly will be puzzled until the game is over to understand it.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Alan T

This is my biggest problem I'm having right now.. and I guess will be the 25 million dollar question for me at some point... I just have a hard time seeing a good reason as a good guy or bad guy to make the play Barkeep is making. I'm really struggling to see his point in his arguement (which he started making before we knew neon was bad, before we found out RPI was the seer, etc)..

Barkeep is speaking in absolutes, saying there is 0% chance that neon is bad, and speaks as if thats a forgone conclusion.. He puts himself on the line defending someone who it feels almost aparently is bad at this point...

It almost makes me wonder if he is using the waaaaay out in front of your face wolf strat where you do the most obvious thing ever to make people think its too obvious for a wolf to do. I guess we'll see what happens with Neon.. if Neon ends up a wolf as I figure, Im not going to push barkeep much, but I definitly will be puzzled until the game is over to understand it.

Unless Barkeep is the goth and he's hoping that NC is a wolf?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Unless Barkeep is the goth and he's hoping that NC is a wolf?

The Goth knows who the wolves are, so the same thing would apply as if Barkeep was a wolf.. Why do you set yourself up defending a wolf who is pretty much a lock to be lynched and then expose yourself to be the next possible lynch candidate?

[Barkeep49]

Alan I'm speaking more strongly than I feel because I am in such a minority. It is possible that Neon is a wolf, I just think that it's MORE possible that the story he's stated is the truth.

[Barkeep49]

I will also bring up that it was cronin who made the statement about it being a ballsy play for a villager to do. I had not really considered the villager lie angle until he suggested it. I'm not sure if that's anything, but it's out there.

I have to admit I'm always a little worried when Alan gets to frame the discussion since it fits in so well with his wolf abilities.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The Goth knows who the wolves are, so the same thing would apply as if Barkeep was a wolf.. Why do you set yourself up defending a wolf who is pretty much a lock to be lynched and then expose yourself to be the next possible lynch candidate?

Good point. Nevermind my previous statement..lol

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I will also bring up that it was cronin who made the statement about it being a ballsy play for a villager to do. I had not really considered the villager lie angle until he suggested it. I'm not sure if that's anything, but it's out there.

I have to admit I'm always a little worried when Alan gets to frame the discussion since it fits in so well with his wolf abilities.

I am curious to you suddenly trying to spin this around at me when I've pretty much been saying that I think Neon is bad and that likely means you are good...

Just something else to keep in mind I suppose.

[st.cronin]

I am completely neutral on Barkeep defending Neon, because for one thing I am not sure whether Neon is a wolf or not. Either way you can construct plausible analysis that shows Barkeep is or is not a wolf. To me there's no particular logic there, just instinct, and I'm not very good at reading Barkeep.

What I find more worrisome is his insistence that we vote DaddyTorgo. The wolves would WANT DT to use his duke power on Neon, since Neon is a goner regardless. The wolves want DT to burn his ability. That argument I find wolfish.

[Raiders Army]

To me skimming through this, it's a pretty easy vote on Neon today.

VOTE NEON_CHAOS

I'm pretty sure Crim is a good guy, and he brought up a lot of "mistakes" Neon made.

[Raiders Army]

FWIW, if I were Neon and he is in fact a simple villegar, I might try to use the seer gambit as well. It's not a bad idea in that you make yourself a target for the wolves and they try to attack you instead of the real seer.

As far as the non-voting or tie on the first day goes, I think that that is one of the worst things a villeger can do. The only power we have is the lynch. If we give that up, then that gives the wolves that much more leverage in the game.

[st.cronin]

These are the votes for DT right now:

Crim
EagleFan
path12

Barkeep has been the most vocal about pushing for this vote, but hasn't actually cast a vote yet.

[st.cronin]

Dola,

MrBug voted and unvoted.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

FWIW, if I were Neon and he is in fact a simple villegar, I might try to use the seer gambit as well. It's not a bad idea in that you make yourself a target for the wolves and they try to attack you instead of the real seer.

As far as the non-voting or tie on the first day goes, I think that that is one of the worst things a villeger can do. The only power we have is the lynch. If we give that up, then that gives the wolves that much more leverage in the game.

I could see this as a good defense if he hadn't done it on night 1...if we'd played a few days and he had figured out who the seer was, then yes...but with no information it just seems like such a stupid thing to do...

[Raiders Army]

I'm out for the rest of work today. I'll be back in a little bit. I didn't catch that Crim voted for DT. That maybe makes me rethink voting for Neon.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

What I find more worrisome is his insistence that we vote DaddyTorgo. The wolves would WANT DT to use his duke power on Neon, since Neon is a goner regardless. The wolves want DT to burn his ability. That argument I find wolfish.

I have hardly insisted and if you'll notice haven't even cast my own vote. It was DT who suggested we vote for him.

[RendeR]

SO What you're suggesting BK is that Neon was simply a naive new player (relatively) who paniced and screwed up bigtime thinking he was creating some sort of safety net for the real seer?

Doesn't that feel just a little far fetched after seeing how well NC has played in the last few games? I don't think he's naive or even technically new to this, his last couple games showed him to be quite shrewed in his game play.

This day 1 farce of his is too much of a screwed up ploy to BE a simple screwed up ploy.


just thinking out loud.

[DaddyTorgo]

true. it was me. but i guess i'm backing off that position. i don't care that a couple people may end up leaving their vote on me, but it's clear that popular opinion has turned to the "lynch neon outright and save dt's ability" camp.

i'd appreciate it if someone could pass me one of them 25% doo-dads btw. might help augment the BG's ability to protect me.

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

if indeed the BG should choose to protect me tonight

[Barkeep49]

I think Neon was an experienced player attempting to make a bold play, one that would impress others, in an attempt to save himself.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think Neon was an experienced player attempting to make a bold play, one that would impress others, in an attempt to save himself.

And people who make bold plays know full well that if they're not pulled off perfectly that the likely consequence will be that they will get lynched. I see no reason to give Neon_Chaos the benefit of the doubt and feel that the safe bet is to lynch him.

[RendeR]

It was impressive alright, just not in a good way.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

And people who make bold plays know full well that if they're not pulled off perfectly that the likely consequence will be that they will get lynched. I see no reason to give Neon_Chaos the benefit of the doubt and feel that the safe bet is to lynch him.

QFT

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have hardly insisted and if you'll notice haven't even cast my own vote. It was DT who suggested we vote for him.

Yeah, I really can't decide how I feel about your play today. I go back and forth.

[st.cronin]

Has it occured to anybody else that what happened last night may have been the bartender blocking the wolf, and not the bodyguard?

[st.cronin]

I'm likely out until morning.