werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Has it occured to anybody else that what happened last night may have been the bartender blocking the wolf, and not the bodyguard?

I've thought alot about what occured last night, but mainly kept most of those thoughts to myself other than my initial thoughts.

If Neon is a wolf, the wolves know that he is and that the seer is still out there somewhere. They take a pot shot at killing the seer elsewhere last night... No kill means they either hit the bodyguard, the killer was blocked by the bartender, they hit some item of some sort, or they hit the convert.

If Neon is the convert, the wolves do not know he is the convert and assume he is the seer. They then have to decide if they take a chance on killing neon with him having claimed to have the serving tray as well as the Bodyguard possibly blocking them. No night kill in this scenerio could have meant they either converted neon and the bodyguard was elsewhere, they were blocked by the bodyguard, the bartender blocked them or some item blocked them.

If neon is neither the convert nor a wolf, the same scenerios apply as if he was the convert, since from the wolves point of view, they wouldn't know him as the convert vs the seer.

I would have to think if someone got attacked and blocked the attack with an item, they would have said as such. The wolves know who they attacked, so no reason to keep that information private. Plus they no longer have that item. Since no one has mentioned as such, I assume the kill wasnt blocked by item.

If the bodyguard blocked the kill, I would assume he wouldnt reveal as such.. and that means the most likely scenerio is that the bodyguard blocked neon and the wolves took a shot and went after him as well. That would say that Neon likely isn't a wolf and my guess is that makes him the convert as the wolves would have thought neon was truthfully the seer last night.

If the bartender blocked the kill, I'm not entirely sure if he would have even known that he did... so not sure what to take from that point of view...

I guess the more I think about it, the more I'm unsure of a few different people's actions from yesterday and today.. I definitly hope its not just a case where several villagers just made poor villager plays (DT's not voting, Neon claiming to be the seer, etc).. either way we have to put a resolution to this today to make sure.

[Alan T]

Im not really sure if I put a vote in yet or not, but I should be back before deadline. In case I'm not..

Vote neon_chaos

[RendeR]

Lets end this silliness for tonight.

VOTE NEON_CHAOS
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Has it occured to anybody else that what happened last night may have been the bartender blocking the wolf, and not the bodyguard?

I'm guessing this will only damn me further but I was the one blocked last night by the bartender.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm guessing this will only damn me further but I was the one blocked last night by the bartender.

I'm not sure why that would damn you further. Unless you're asking for the bartender to verify this.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure why that would damn you further. Unless you're asking for the bartender to verify this.

Not at all, that would just be bad. I'm suggesting that with the lack of a night kill last night the simplest solution is to suggest that there was no night kill because I am the wolf and the bartender blocked my doing an attack. It would be wrong, but it's a fairly obvious statement to make.

[EagleFan]

Unvote DT


Wow, a lot of reading to catch up on.

[Raiders Army]

I think Neon is the logical choice for today and there is no other choice at this point. Perhaps the votes for today will reveal more for the rest of the game.

[Barkeep49]

I am voting for DT in hopes that he'll choose someone other than Neon (and me). I wish there was another alternative to Neon.

Vote DT

[EagleFan]

Vote Neon_Chaos

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, what do you believe happened last night in terms of the wolf actions?

Bodyguard block?
Item block?
Failed to submit action?
Conversion?

I realize I'm asking for speculation, but you've had all day to chew on this while eliminating bartender from the list of possibilities. So I'm guessing you have some thoughts on the matter ...

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I disagree...why else would Barkeep be so quick to defend Neon? If Neon turns out to be a wolf, I really don't see that there is any other reason other than Barkeep also being a wolf.

Mind you, this is just a theory, and if I had to vote on it, I would vote on BK being good.

That said, your post has some legitimacy in a way you don't intend (I don't think). And that's that Barkeep might be making a very risky but potentially strong trust move in opting for this and somewhat supporting NC. People have said it would be a crazy move for a wolf to do--so to me that says a wolf might give it a shot to "earn" some trust.

So while I would lean in BK being just misguided (but good) in this sense, I am certainly not rejecting the possibility Barkeep, a veteran and very intelligent player, making a high risk move as a wolf in an attempt to put himself in a COT. Such moves have won games before.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, don't worry. It looks like I drew some heat for that vote, for whatever reason. You didn't tell me you were such a respected villager when we were PMing last game -- we could have used that! Anyway, I'm only caught up as far as the post I'm replying to, and at this point, it's looking like NC will get my vote -- I'd rather save the duke for later -- why waste him on a day we're all in agreement?

lol, I didn't really know!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

How would the wolves know that Neon was going to be lynched today? Remember we're on a 24-hour deadline. Unless the wolves could submit a night action somehow after deadline? I seem to recall Lathum making a post calling for night actions ASAP, after deadline.

You're right actually. It was only after RPI's role was revealed (after night actions) that NC became an obvious lynch target for Day Two. You're also right that Lathum made a call for night actions after the deadline, so it's possible the wolves dallied and learned something valuable before sending their order in. That's actually disappointing--no deadline moves should have been allowed after the deadline, IMO, as it is an unfair advantage for those who wait to see the results.

But since it happened, it means we really don't have a clue what the wolves "knew" when they sent in their deadline.

Putting that aside for the moment...

...why would the wolves think NC was the goth before the deadline? Unless you put stock in NC's supposed "bandwagon" voting, which I don't, thought it was quite a bit of a reach to buy that. It isn't until after the results that NC's "bold" move stands out, and makes him look more like someone trying to get the wolves' attention. As far as the wolves are concerned, pre-deadline, he is the seer and likely to be protected on Night One.

So unless you buy they would take the same chance we did with Lathum in the last game, you have to think it's unlikely they went after NC.

Which could mean they tried to convert someone else, if they have that power (certainly possible). I don't recall the rules saying the goth was the only one who could be converted, just the most inclined to do so.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Except...didn't the wolves think he actually WAS the seer at that point? This is all assuming he's not a wolf, right? What made him a goner by Day 2 is not that he didn't die -- it's that the seer was lynched Day 1...right? I might not be following this perfectly, since I am hungry, but I'll check in again after lunch.

Heh...you're saying what I just typed, hours before I typed it. I should probably read the rest of the thread before posting.

[MrBug708]

I'm going back to my original vote of Daddy Torgo

Vote - Daddy Torgo

No real analysis that hasn't been said here, but I'm afraid that NC is just a villager who played this hand really bad. Besides DT asked to be voted for

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm guessing this will only damn me further but I was the one blocked last night by the bartender.

Well this removed the one thought I had about you that was circling in my mind that I did not mention for your safety.

I had thought one other possibility was that you were the bodyguard and had blocked a wolf attack against neon last night, thus assuming neon was good (even though I contend that neon would likely be the goth in that case and the wolves just didn't know it).

If you were the one blocked by the bartender, then that idea goes right out the window, and I'm back to entirely not understanding your point of view today.

[hoopsguy]

Pretty quiet this evening - people just waiting on the seemingly inevitable result or watching football?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pretty quiet this evening - people just waiting on the seemingly inevitable result or watching football?

I'll be honest, both here! As a Boilermaker alum and Saints fan, love watching Brees vs. Colts. Probably on and off for a while.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pretty quiet this evening - people just waiting on the seemingly inevitable result or watching football?

I just got home a few minutes ago, but it didn't look like I missed much while I was gone. I think for myself, I'm just waiting to see what the result is on Neon, while trying to make up my mind about how I feel about a few people, namely Barkeep, Mrbug and Cronin. (note I'm not saying I think any of the three are bad, but all three have done things that piqued my interests)

[DaddyTorgo]

watching football and doing registry edits and customizing on my new cellphone (ppc 6800...HTC Mogul)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, what do you believe happened last night in terms of the wolf actions?

Bodyguard block?
Item block?
Failed to submit action?
Conversion?

I realize I'm asking for speculation, but you've had all day to chew on this while eliminating bartender from the list of possibilities. So I'm guessing you have some thoughts on the matter ...

I think I would place the most likely as being a conversion, followed by item block, bg block and would put failure to submit an action at near 0.

[Barkeep49]

Reason for the near 0 is we had a million people around at deadline yesterday and so I have to think one of them was a wolf and would've submitted an action at that point if none of the others had.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pretty quiet this evening - people just waiting on the seemingly inevitable result or watching football?

What all is there to say?

[hoopsguy]

Not sure, exactly. But there were about 100 posts inside of 40 minutes last night. The contrast is pretty striking, especially since I'm sitting here with time to participate tonight and missed most of the fun last night.

[Lathum]

anyone have a vote count, I just got home

[molson]

Anyone want to do a vote count? I'm seems like a DT landslide, but I don't know how many votes are out there.

I just read through everything, and while I'm still quite overwhelmed, a few things stand out.

-It really was an incredible turn of events that we lynched the seer on day 1. Whatever the plan was, and whoever had the plan, that couldn't have been expected. SO, in an alternative universe, the most probable outcome for right now is that NC is alive, and revealed, and we all SHOULD be here arguing over whether he's the seer or not. What was NC's plan at that point? It's odd that he hasn't really addressed that. As a villager, (as he claims), he would either have had to # 1. Continue to lie about who he scans and whatnot, which would create nothing but problems for us or # 2. Come clean about his lie. Was he planning on coming clean? If so, when? It would have had to have been sooner rather than later, to avoid scenario #1.

NC's argument for why he did what he did makes no sense. Someone correctly pointed out that he could have easily saved himself by changing the vote. Not only that, we were quite a few minutes from the deadline, and there were still votes out there, and there were other votes that were still hopping around. NC's response to that point: "I didn't want a tie". Huh? Fake reveal to avoid a tie?

The most logical result (I guess), is that NC wanted the wolves to take him out. And the wolves probably would have, had NC's lie not been revealed (and remember, it was REVEALED, through an incredible twist of fate).

So I think NC is a goth. So it's probably important that we take him out tonight, so the wolves can't.

The defense tools have an interesting part in all this. Before the lie was revealed, if NC wanted the wolves to take him out, he shouldn't have wanted any defense tools (they would just hinder what he wants). But now that he has a target on him, it's a more complicated question. Tools may save him tonight from us, but then may keep him from getting killed/coverted by the wolves later (or would they?).

-It seems we're unsure about something that's hugely important to the game -when do wolves make their kill decision - before or after the lynching writeup is posted? We need to know that with 100% certainty.

VOTE NEON CHAOS

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What all is there to say?

Go Saints?

[MrDNA]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What all is there to say?

Something to convince me who to vote for?

[molson]

My highly unofficial Vote Count confirms a landslide.

NC: Molson, Eaglefan, Render, Alan T, Raiders Army, Passacagila, ArlingtonColt, olliegirl, hoopsguy, Chief Rum, St. Cronin, Telle, Purduebrad, DT

DT: Mr. Bug, Barkeep, Path, Crim

[MrDNA]

Well, in that case

VOTE NEON_CHAOS

Just like real voting, mine doesn't matter!

[molson]

So noboby finds DT the least bit suspicious after what happened around the voting deadline yesterday? I mean, I don't currently subscribe to any such theory, but just thinking out loud:

A flurry of votes in all directions, then, before a votecount is posted, DT apparently has enough confidence in his fate to reveal his role 11 minutes after the deadline, but BEFORE results are posted? Not only was he TWO votes lower than the poor soul who was lynched, but he wasn't even a clear runner-up, he tied with #2. I mean, he was way off.

And sure, he invited votes his way after that (that he said he would send towards DT), but there wasn't much momentum towards him, and it was pretty obvious that it would make more sense to hit NC directly.

So not only is he building trust, there's a reason for others to send him their tools.

I mean, everyone's on NC's ass, but geez, the way DT revealed was pretty ridiculous.

[MrBug708]

3 minutes

[Lathum]

updated vote count

Neon_Chaos-15- DaddyTorgo (370), PurdeuBrad (373), Telle (367), St.Cronin (402), ChiefRum (455), HoopsGuy (461), OlieGirl (481), ArlingtonColt (491), passacasglia (523), raidersarmy (534), alanT (552), render (553), eaglefan (560), molson (578), MrDna (582)

DaddyTorgo-4- Crim (384), Path12 (425), barkeep (559), mrbug (567)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by molson

So noboby finds DT the least bit suspicious after what happened around the voting deadline yesterday? I mean, I don't currently subscribe to any such theory, but just thinking out loud:

A flurry of votes in all directions, then, before a votecount is posted, DT apparently has enough confidence in his fate to reveal his role 11 minutes after the deadline, but BEFORE results are posted? Not only was he TWO votes lower than the poor soul who was lynched, but he wasn't even a clear runner-up, he tied with #2. I mean, he was way off.

And sure, he invited votes his way after that (that he said he would send towards DT), but there wasn't much momentum towards him, and it was pretty obvious that it would make more sense to hit NC directly.

So not only is he building trust, there's a reason for others to send him their tools.

I mean, everyone's on NC's ass, but geez, the way DT revealed was pretty ridiculous.

This has not slipped past everyone as you would seem to believe....

[Lathum]

deadline

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

So noboby finds DT the least bit suspicious after what happened around the voting deadline yesterday? I mean, I don't currently subscribe to any such theory, but just thinking out loud:

A flurry of votes in all directions, then, before a votecount is posted, DT apparently has enough confidence in his fate to reveal his role 11 minutes after the deadline, but BEFORE results are posted? Not only was he TWO votes lower than the poor soul who was lynched, but he wasn't even a clear runner-up, he tied with #2. I mean, he was way off.

And sure, he invited votes his way after that (that he said he would send towards DT), but there wasn't much momentum towards him, and it was pretty obvious that it would make more sense to hit NC directly.

So not only is he building trust, there's a reason for others to send him their tools.

I mean, everyone's on NC's ass, but geez, the way DT revealed was pretty ridiculous.

I thought I was pretty clear with my thoughts on the subject...

It would be an utter fool to fake reveal as the duke. If DT fake revealed, the duke just simply dukes him tommorrow (after we settle with Neon).. without any such thing happening, the only logical conclusion is to build trust in him.

[Neon_Chaos]

What would be the most likely scenario?

Me?

A stupid villager?

Or maybe....

[Lathum]

There is heated discussion today with most feeling Neon_Chaos is a wolf. Some speak up in his defense, including Barkeep, but in the end the majority rules.

You all grab him and hold him down, someone grabs a handfull of golf tees and thrusts the violently into Neon_Chaos' eyes. He begins to twitch and as he dies his face takes the form of a muzzle.

Neon_Chaos was a wolf!!!!

You all feel good about your choice, night actions to come

[PurdueBrad]

WOW, nice!!!

[MrBug708]

Wooo

Good call guys

[Telle]

Wow.. that was a tad gruesome... but yay!

[molson]

Sweet.

We he necessarily a wolf all along, or is there a chance the no-kill last night was a conversion?

[Alan T]

Shocker!

[Neon_Chaos]

BTW, thanks for the lovely items. I'll take all three down with me.

Time to shut up now.

:P

Go Wolves!

[hoopsguy]

Every once in awhile Day 1 actually means something - despite how much we all whine about it.

[MrBug708]

Shhhh

[Raiders Army]

booya

[RendeR]

*chitters*