werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[Crim]

Tell you what, I don't have a vote count, but I think there's some momentum toward MrBug. I happen to have him as my number one suspect, but I really don't have anything concrete to support that. I'm gonna go post-mining and see if I can dig something up that justifies my uneasiness with him. Was going to vote him as soon as I caught up reading, but now that there's a run on him, I'm wanting to lay back until (unless?) I can show my work re: MrBug.

More to come... may be awhile.

[MrDNA]

VOTE OLIEGIRL

Seems to be the only one who is suspicious of DT, which makes me less suspicious of him. Thinks Lathum is a wolf. Is a girl and probably has cooties. Possibly wolf cooties!

[Crim]

Here's something weird: I think MrDNA's vote on olliegirl is suspicious. That's not the weird part. What's weird is that I think his vote is suspicious, even though I have olliegirl as my suspect number three.

I don't make any sense at the moment, as I'll demonstrate further in my next post. Where can I download the single-player version of Werewolf. I need some practice before trying multiplayer!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Not a useless villager -- one villager we have no doubt about. If he uses his power I doubt the wolves would have him as a priority and we could start to form some trust circles.

I'm also not as optimistic as you about him surviving without using his power. Remember, they apparently attacked Neon even though you'd have thought the BG would be there........so they have shown they're willing to make a bold move.

Am I the only one who thinks there are too many assumptions about the NC play and what happened with the non-kill on Night One?

The proposal seems to be that NC made his Day One decision to advertise himself as the Goth and that he was making a bold play to get their attention. But then he fake reveals the biggest good role to save himself--and thus making the wolves' decision to come after him much more difficult (what with his item propping and the presence of the bodyguard).

And then we're assuming the wolves played it bold, through it all to caution and went after NC anyway. And that the bodyguard protected someone else, or that he got a bad roll and couldn't protect NC.

Guys, these are low percentage shots, all. And combined they make a phenomenally low chance of having happened that way.

I am convinced, short of evidence otherwise, that Neon was a wolf to begin with and made a desperation move as he was about to get lynched that backfired on him tremendously. And the wolves went after someone else and either got blocked by the BG, blocked by an item or found and converted the Goth.

[hoopsguy]

Crim, I'm compiling a trust list faster than I am a suspect list. Right now, your #1 suspect has become the 4th member of my semi-trusted list.

Also, who is your #2 mistrusted given that you listed #1 and #3?

[Passacaglia]

I still feel like I don't like EagleFan's vote, but since no one has jumped on it really, I'm not too worried. I'm going to put my vote on Telle. She even admits this was probably an honest mistake by oliegirl, but....but it could have been a wolf mis-direction? Misdirecting us toward what? I don't see the gain as a wolf.

VOTE TELLE

Out to celebrate my last day on the job. The bad news is my new job may cut into my WW time. Oh, well -- I guess the last week on the old job already did, too.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I really can't imagine Neon making the play he did if he was a starting wolf.

I can. I think he panicked.

[MrBug708]

I echo it. If you're trying to save your skin no matter what your role is, you'll do what you can

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Crim

Tell you what, I don't have a vote count, but I think there's some momentum toward MrBug. I happen to have him as my number one suspect, but I really don't have anything concrete to support that. I'm gonna go post-mining and see if I can dig something up that justifies my uneasiness with him. Was going to vote him as soon as I caught up reading, but now that there's a run on him, I'm wanting to lay back until (unless?) I can show my work re: MrBug.

More to come... may be awhile.

I think you're nervous for a reason. What that is? I'm not sure but you'll find nothing sketchy about me other then a bad voting record

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #759:

Telle - Cronin (683), Hoops (718), Olie (723), Pass (756)
Oliegirl - Telle (715), DNA (752)
Purdue - Eagle (620)
MrBug - Molson (679)
DT - Purdue (732)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Arlington, normally I would prefer letting the people being questioned answer directly but this has already been discussed in the thread a couple of times so I'll put it out there.

1.) If DT is the Duke, he won't die as a result of the vote
2.) If DT was "bluffing" at the Duke, he will die as a result of the vote
3.) If DT is the Duke, and demonstrates his ability, he moves from "trusted as a leap of faith" to "trusted as demonstrated good guy". That is a lot more certainty to possess about a player
4.) It is better, in theory, for the Duke to use his power before dying. There is no guarantee that the wolves, if they know who the Duke is, will let him live

Personally, if I feel like I've got a wolf in my sites I would rather go get the wolf than force the hand of the Duke. That is how I felt yesterday when I voted for Neon instead of indirectly voting for him by casting a vote for DT. Also, there was a possibility (probably pretty slight, but certainly out there) that DT could choose to go in another direction based on gut/whatever.

Your reasoning meshes with mine on why I went straight for NC.

As for the "can we trust" DT thing, well, honestly, I don't think it matters. He is going to be killed by the wolves sooner than later. No point keeping him around, regardless of whether he still has his power. Either he has a power potentially harmful to them, or he is a trusted good guy after using the power. There is no point at which they would not want to kill him.

If he's alive after another day, I figure to vote for him because I would assume by then he must be a wolf to have lived that long. Of course, if that's the case, hopefully the real duke will save us the trouble and duke the vote onto him.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Your reasoning meshes with mine on why I went straight for NC.

As for the "can we trust" DT thing, well, honestly, I don't think it matters. He is going to be killed by the wolves sooner than later. No point keeping him around, regardless of whether he still has his power. Either he has a power potentially harmful to them, or he is a trusted good guy after using the power. There is no point at which they would not want to kill him.

If he's alive after another day, I figure to vote for him because I would assume by then he must be a wolf to have lived that long. Of course, if that's the case, hopefully the real duke will save us the trouble and duke the vote onto him.

I don't get it. If he's alive, he's a wolf, but if he's not a wolf, then the real duke will take care of him?

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...i'm around

I findi it interesting that cronin+hoops, two guys with plenty of games under their belts, have such different opinions on whether I should use my power or not.

as far as who my top suspects are right now...

I might have to echo everyone else and say telle. although you know...odds are that at least one of the new people is a wolf guys, and we're going to have to look at them sooner or later.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am convinced, short of evidence otherwise, that Neon was a wolf to begin with and made a desperation move as he was about to get lynched that backfired on him tremendously. And the wolves went after someone else and either got blocked by the BG, blocked by an item or found and converted the Goth.

If that's what you think (and the argument was strong), then do you suspect DT as the goth? If he's fake-revealing as a duke, he's making himself an delicious target for the wolves. He very briefly invited votes onto himself yesterday, but that was never under any really serious consideration.

I know the other side of that, "if he was a duke, the real duke would duke him". And I don't have a solid response to that.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I don't think it matters a ton for us which role Neon had initially - he knew who the wolves were with either. His voting patterns show that his first three votes were for villagers and he wanted to turn the vote to Crim if he could get help.

It would be nice to know which role he had, as that would help with figuring out what happened on Night 1 when there was no kill. Maybe it would help with some other (likely goofy) theories I've got on people's play, but since we aren't going to get that info I don't know how worthy of pursuing it is.

I see your point on a couple of things needing to come together for Neon as the convert - and I'm definitely in the camp that has been discussing this topic. I reached the above conclusion on the way home tonight.

I'm hoping we get into Day 4 with more info and better topics for discussion.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't get it. If he's alive, he's a wolf, but if he's not a wolf, then the real duke will take care of him?

If he makes it past tomorrow's vote he's obviously alive for a reason as the wolves havent targeted him yet

[molson]

If NC was a wolf from the beginning, you'd think he would communicate about the other wolves about his crazy fake reveal, and you'd think they'd try to talk him out of it.

Unless the other wolves were newer players, and NC felt like he could make such a move unilaterally.

I've never had the experience of being a wolf, but that would be my mentality - checking with a more experienced player before I did anything drastic, but probably giving myself more leeway if I was the most experienced of the bunch.

[hoopsguy]

DT, it is uncanny how often Cronin and I disagree on our interpretation of events in these games. Most of the time it is really healthy for me in that it challenges my thinking.

You are the guy that gets to pull the trigger. If you like where the vote is headed, there probably isn't a need to burn it. But if you want to use it before you move on, who knows how many more chances you will have?

And, of course, if you aren't the Duke and have been running a bluff (which I've bought) then the real Duke will probably get tired of you at some point

[Crim]

I APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE FOR THE LENGTH OF THIS POST!

Herein, as promised, I'm going to lay out my case against MrBug708. I want to state for the record that I went into this exercise looking for his guilt specifically, and I think that some of what I'm going to reference is only suspicious IF you assume beforehand that MrBug has excessively long toothiness. Here goes, I'll try to be coherent (a brave departure from my norm, I think).

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Now people are going to associate me with you and thus a possible wolf! Blah!

This was addressed to Neon Chaos. This is mostly suspicious only if you assume that NC was originally a wolf, NOT the Goth. I made an argument to this effect earlier, YMMV.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

This seems like sound advice unless you are wolf trying to defend another wolf's creative tactically approach...

This was to Hoopsguy, in response to Hoops defending Crim (me). This is important to me, since I'm sure of my own innocence, but this will be of less import to st. cronin and perhaps others, who don't seem to hold me in the highest regard.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

People voted for Neon because he seems to want to start a bandwagon on everyone else. From personal experience I would do my best to get anyonet o vote for people other then me so I dont blame him

Here we see MrBug making the first of several defenses of NC. Note that Barkeep died unjustly for making the ol' NC defense, but MrBug is being a lot less forceful and subtle, IMO.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Was an item used? I would imagine we would have seen something. I guess the wolves lie in wait then

I bolded and colored this one, because it's a major cog in my little wheel of suspicion. Here MrBug makes a suggestion, very quietly I think, that the lack of a Night One kill was due to the wolves intentionally taking no night action?!? This was certainly not my first thought, and it's not as if he's listing a number of possible scenarios, "I guess the wolves lie in wait then" means that he is assuming the bad guys are just kicking back, watching the show, and taking no action. To which I must respond, "wtf?"

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Not a bad idea. If you are telling the truth you've outed yourself. If we vote you, you can prove your powers by voting out NC and you've become a friend to the villagers for a bit. You're obviously a person of interest now too, like NC was and it bit him in the ass.

A few possibilies

1) We all vote for NC
a)He's a wolf, yay for us
b)He's a villegar, we've reduced our numbers again
**********This is where it gets fun***************
2) We all vote for Daddy Torgo
a)He is who he says he is and changes votes to NC.
b)He's lying as well and we've killed a wolf
3) We vote for someone else which I don't think is an option

Now, I like #2 myself. Say DaddyTorgo is also lying and he's a wolf. We basically killed another villager (NC) by voting for him and have no way to prove that Torgo is who he says he is. He's already saying he's a certain character so it's kind of out there already. We have nothing to lose by voting for DT because if he's telling the truth we still kill NC. If he's lying he gets lynched himself and we can all at least vote for Neon the next day.

I'm not saying I think Neon is innocent. He lied and obviously got busted for it big time but now we can someone else for sure in daddy torgo and we could possibly still find out who NC is...

I call special attention to this one, only because this is a case where MrBug makes a pretty solid argument for a position which I agree with. I know wolves latch onto arguments that villagers share to gain trust, but I just wanted to point out that he and I were in lockstep on this issue... that said, I also know that some of you believe this view to be 100% wrong. Well, whatev.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

What if RPI was the target and we killed him anyways in a lynch?

Here's the second instance of MrBug spitballing a reason for no Night One kill. This flies in the face of game mechanics, as in the 24-hour deadline. Just felt like he was grasping for some way to avoid acknowledging the likelihood (or, possibility, at least) of a conversion.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

It could just be ignorance though. I didn't realize it either and obviously NC is not a good player this time around

Ok, I'm done defending NC, I don't want to be guilty by association

Here's another NC defense. Note the last line. It's actually comic, if you are going to assume his guilt prior to reading it. Oh yeah, and this is the post that he edited, too. :snicker:

Originally Posted by MrBug708

It's just rather confusing. I havent played in so long but do the wolves pick someone to kill another person? Or is random on who Lathum picks and if the bartender gets lucky, does it stop the kill?

Obviously Lathum can't say, so who knows really

To me, this the creepiest, in an OJ-writing-about-how-he-WOULD-have-killed-Ron-and-Nicole kind of way. Again, as before, you have to assume MrBug is bad to see my fascination with this post, but a wolf musing aloud about how he might go about the action of disemboweling a villager, it's just, like, :shudder:, ya know?

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Unless Barkeep is the goth and he's hoping that NC is a wolf?

Another game mechanics blunder.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'm going back to my original vote of Daddy Torgo

Vote - Daddy Torgo

No real analysis that hasn't been said here, but I'm afraid that NC is just a villager who played this hand really bad. Besides DT asked to be voted for

This was already siezed upon by (I think) Hoops, but I wanted to actually quote it here, to demonstrate something. The prevailing opinion at the time was (still is, I reckon) that DT was the duke, and if voted upon, he'd move the lynch vote to NC. So MrBug's comment of "I'm afraid that NC is just a villager who played this hand really bad" doesn't hold water, since it was clear at the time that a vote for DT WAS a vote for NC!

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Dang, I missed an interesting night. My voting record hasn't been stellar either which doesn't bode too well for me. I need to rethink my strategy (of what little I had to begin). Obviously DT is the seer and I would imagine that the body guard protected him last night. I think the shot on barkeep was a bad shot but people seemed to read him either totally good or totally bad. I guess tomorrow is a wait for the rest of the analysis before making the next pick

Idunno, this is prolly just a harmless mistake, but still.


Having waded through all these posts, I can honestly say I do not feel certain about MrBug. I'm going to VOTE MRBUG708 anyway, though because this is the strongest case I can make for anyone, really.

My fingers hurt.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, it is uncanny how often Cronin and I disagree on our interpretation of events in these games. Most of the time it is really healthy for me in that it challenges my thinking.

You are the guy that gets to pull the trigger. If you like where the vote is headed, there probably isn't a need to burn it. But if you want to use it before you move on, who knows how many more chances you will have?

And, of course, if you aren't the Duke and have been running a bluff (which I've bought) then the real Duke will probably get tired of you at some point

I am the duke.

not sure...wondering if one of the two of you might be bad, or if it's just your usual disagreements.

Guess I have like an hour and a half to decide to what if anything I want to do.

Need to vote too.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Am I the only one who thinks there are too many assumptions about the NC play and what happened with the non-kill on Night One?

The proposal seems to be that NC made his Day One decision to advertise himself as the Goth and that he was making a bold play to get their attention. But then he fake reveals the biggest good role to save himself--and thus making the wolves' decision to come after him much more difficult (what with his item propping and the presence of the bodyguard).

And then we're assuming the wolves played it bold, through it all to caution and went after NC anyway. And that the bodyguard protected someone else, or that he got a bad roll and couldn't protect NC.

Guys, these are low percentage shots, all. And combined they make a phenomenally low chance of having happened that way.

I am convinced, short of evidence otherwise, that Neon was a wolf to begin with and made a desperation move as he was about to get lynched that backfired on him tremendously. And the wolves went after someone else and either got blocked by the BG, blocked by an item or found and converted the Goth.

Much better worded than my attempt. +1, this is what I had been trying to say, but I doesn't talk good.

[molson]

Interesting stuff Crim, MrBug's voting stuck out like sore thumb to me, and that heightened my suspicions. My vote's going to stay with him, though don't hate Telle vote at all.

I won't be as active tonight as I was last night, but I'll be reviewing this weekend.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Crim, I'm compiling a trust list faster than I am a suspect list. Right now, your #1 suspect has become the 4th member of my semi-trusted list.

Also, who is your #2 mistrusted given that you listed #1 and #3?

I want to hang on to that for a bit. Let me get my thoughts sorted out on it.

[DaddyTorgo]

wow. Nice analysis crim

VOTE MR. BUG

let's see if we can't avoid a runaway for now

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm going to put my vote on Telle. She even admits this was probably an honest mistake by oliegirl, but....but it could have been a wolf mis-direction? Misdirecting us toward what? I don't see the gain as a wolf.

yeah, I was just thinking that too.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Crim

I APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE FOR THE LENGTH OF THIS POST!

Herein, as promised, I'm going to lay out my case against MrBug708. I want to state for the record that I went into this exercise looking for his guilt specifically, and I think that some of what I'm going to reference is only suspicious IF you assume beforehand that MrBug has excessively long toothiness. Here goes, I'll try to be coherent (a brave departure from my norm, I think).

This was addressed to Neon Chaos. This is mostly suspicious only if you assume that NC was originally a wolf, NOT the Goth. I made an argument to this effect earlier, YMMV.


This was to Hoopsguy, in response to Hoops defending Crim (me). This is important to me, since I'm sure of my own innocence, but this will be of less import to st. cronin and perhaps others, who don't seem to hold me in the highest regard.


Here we see MrBug making the first of several defenses of NC. Note that Barkeep died unjustly for making the ol' NC defense, but MrBug is being a lot less forceful and subtle, IMO.


I bolded and colored this one, because it's a major cog in my little wheel of suspicion. Here MrBug makes a suggestion, very quietly I think, that the lack of a Night One kill was due to the wolves intentionally taking no night action?!? This was certainly not my first thought, and it's not as if he's listing a number of possible scenarios, "I guess the wolves lie in wait then" means that he is assuming the bad guys are just kicking back, watching the show, and taking no action. To which I must respond, "wtf?"


I call special attention to this one, only because this is a case where MrBug makes a pretty solid argument for a position which I agree with. I know wolves latch onto arguments that villagers share to gain trust, but I just wanted to point out that he and I were in lockstep on this issue... that said, I also know that some of you believe this view to be 100% wrong. Well, whatev.


Here's the second instance of MrBug spitballing a reason for no Night One kill. This flies in the face of game mechanics, as in the 24-hour deadline. Just felt like he was grasping for some way to avoid acknowledging the likelihood (or, possibility, at least) of a conversion.


Here's another NC defense. Note the last line. It's actually comic, if you are going to assume his guilt prior to reading it. Oh yeah, and this is the post that he edited, too. :snicker:


To me, this the creepiest, in an OJ-writing-about-how-he-WOULD-have-killed-Ron-and-Nicole kind of way. Again, as before, you have to assume MrBug is bad to see my fascination with this post, but a wolf musing aloud about how he might go about the action of disemboweling a villager, it's just, like, :shudder:, ya know?


Another game mechanics blunder.


This was already siezed upon by (I think) Hoops, but I wanted to actually quote it here, to demonstrate something. The prevailing opinion at the time was (still is, I reckon) that DT was the duke, and if voted upon, he'd move the lynch vote to NC. So MrBug's comment of "I'm afraid that NC is just a villager who played this hand really bad" doesn't hold water, since it was clear at the time that a vote for DT WAS a vote for NC!


Idunno, this is prolly just a harmless mistake, but still.


Having waded through all these posts, I can honestly say I do not feel certain about MrBug. I'm going to VOTE MRBUG708 anyway, though because this is the strongest case I can make for anyone, really.

My fingers hurt.

So basically your logic follows that all these make sense because you had a hunch (an unwarranted one at that) that I was guilty and most of these dots your very loosely trying to connect is a good reason to lynch me?

Why would I continue to support NC as a wolf if I knew he was up the creek anyway? Unless I had no knowledge of who the wolves are thus making me a villager.

Which I am

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If he's alive after another day, I figure to vote for him because I would assume by then he must be a wolf to have lived that long. Of course, if that's the case, hopefully the real duke will save us the trouble and duke the vote onto him.

I think this logic is poor, at best. There are several mechanisms for a villager to avoid divulging his entrails on a given night in this game. I am not on board with your statement at all, Chief.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Crim

I think this logic is poor, at best. There are several mechanisms for a villager to avoid divulging his entrails on a given night in this game. I am not on board with your statement at all, Chief.

What mechanisms other then being a wolf?

[Crim]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

If he makes it past tomorrow's vote he's obviously alive for a reason as the wolves havent targeted him yet

Oh?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Crim

Oh?

Yes. Why would the wolves continuously leave the admitted Duke alive? Obviously he's alive for a reason which is probably that he's not really who he says he is. The problem that Chief also alluded to was why the real Duke didn't come forward and just have him killed instead....

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Crim

Here we see MrBug making the first of several defenses of NC. Note that Barkeep died unjustly for making the ol' NC defense, but MrBug is being a lot less forceful and subtle, IMO.

Err, ...MrBug is being a lot less forceful and MORE subtle, IMO...

...is what I meant.

[MrBug708]

Subtle at what? being a wolf? Hard to be subtle when I'm not a wolf...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't get it. If he's alive, he's a wolf, but if he's not a wolf, then the real duke will take care of him?

My essential point was that there is no point debating DT's trust or how we can use him. If he is really the duke, he will very likely soon be dead at wolf hands. If he continues to live, he's probably not the duke. And the combination of him continuing to live and the real duke knowing he's not the duke will lead the duke to "duke" the vote onto him. In other words, either he is the duke and dies by wolf hands, or he is a wolf playing at duke and will soon die at real duke's hands. Either way, he's not long for this game, so what good is it discussing strategy around using him as a point of trust?

[molson]

Votes as of Post #759:

Telle - Cronin (683), Hoops (718), Olie (723), Pass (756)
Oliegirl - Telle (715), DNA (752)
Purdue - Eagle (620)
MrBug - Molson (679) DaddyTogo (774)

Apparently, Crim is voting for MrBug as well, so we're at 4-3, for all intents and purposes.
DT - Purdue (732)

[molson]

I didn't mean to leave "votes as of post #759" in there.

[hoopsguy]

Crim, always nice to see other players go dumpster diving through old posts.

One notion that you called up that I would dispute - I am pretty sure that the wolves would be very familiar with the mechanics of both their role and the Goths. Even if one of them wasn't paying attention, they have teammates who will PM/IM each other to strategize. I would actually, in a reverse sort of way, credit MrBug for making a mistake on the wolf/goth relationship.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #786:
Telle - Cronin (683), Hoops (718), Olie (723), Pass (756)
MrBug - Molson (679), Crim (769), Torgo (774)
Oliegirl - Telle (715), DNA (752)
Purdue - Eagle (620)
DT - Purdue (732)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by molson

If that's what you think (and the argument was strong), then do you suspect DT as the goth? If he's fake-revealing as a duke, he's making himself an delicious target for the wolves. He very briefly invited votes onto himself yesterday, but that was never under any really serious consideration.

I know the other side of that, "if he was a duke, the real duke would duke him". And I don't have a solid response to that.

See, that gets to the heart of what I am getting it. It doesn't matter. DT is going to be dead soon, either by one side or the other. And if that doesn't happen, then something is screwy that we're going to have to think about.

FTR, I believe DT is who he says he is, but question his need to reveal that when he did.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Couple of thoughts while catching up on posts:

Raiders - why do you have EagleFan listed as a person of trust today?

Anyone - what is the case towards Mr.Bug, excluding vote yesterday? I would expect the wolves to have absolutely voted for Neon after the results were in yesterday, most likely in the early/middle stages.

Just came back on. Sorry, I'll read through and get a vote in. EagleFan is a person I trust because he quickly jumped on Neon on Day 1 for a second vote when there were only 1, 2, or 3 votes on someone. That gains some trust for me.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

So basically your logic follows that all these make sense because you had a hunch (an unwarranted one at that) that I was guilty and most of these dots your very loosely trying to connect is a good reason to lynch me?

Why would I continue to support NC as a wolf if I knew he was up the creek anyway? Unless I had no knowledge of who the wolves are thus making me a villager.

Which I am

I'll tell ya, Bug, that's pretty much exactly my position, except that that order is out of whack. I believe when reading through originally (Wednesday and Thursday I really had no time at all to absorb any nuances, I was working mostly all day), reading your stuff in context made me start to suspect you, and cronin (HOOPS, this is my #2), and olliegirl (although tonight I'm actually off olliegirl and onto Telle, thanks to Pass and others).

Then, because of said hunch, when I went back tonight to pull your posts, I was (as I stated in my encyclopedic post) specifically looking for questionable/suspicious material.

I don't know if it's enough to pull the village away from Telle onto you, and I'm not sure I even think it matters. There's a case to be made for each of you, I'm thinking.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I don't think it matters a ton for us which role Neon had initially - he knew who the wolves were with either. His voting patterns show that his first three votes were for villagers and he wanted to turn the vote to Crim if he could get help.

It would be nice to know which role he had, as that would help with figuring out what happened on Night 1 when there was no kill. Maybe it would help with some other (likely goofy) theories I've got on people's play, but since we aren't going to get that info I don't know how worthy of pursuing it is.

I see your point on a couple of things needing to come together for Neon as the convert - and I'm definitely in the camp that has been discussing this topic. I reached the above conclusion on the way home tonight.

I'm hoping we get into Day 4 with more info and better topics for discussion.

If everyone involved is playing to their role (NC to wolf, Crim to assumed villager, you to alleged villager), then I agree with you on Crim being more in a trust position than others. Plus, his vibe to me matches with that of an interested new villager, which us vets can sense like sharks to blood.

Here's the tricky part, though, and one I can see you playing. Let's say you and Crim are wolves. NC does his bouncing around for his own reasons, not really to set anything up, but he is a wolf, so he votes for villagers, as you surmise. Towards the end, he sees trouble and thinks he might be a goner. A veteran wolf like yourself might suggest then that he put heat on Crim, a fellow wolf, so that he can make his sacrifice worth some trust for Crim. And then you add to that by throwing your support to Crim, pointing out the very thing you suggested NC do.

Now, keep in mind, this is all completely hypothetical and, admittedly, rather far fetched at this point. But I know from past experience what kind of a player you are, both as a wolf and as a villager, so I hope you'll accept it as a sign of respect that I am wary of you.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

FTR, I believe DT is who he says he is, but question his need to reveal that when he did.

I have a hard time getting past that. He didn't have a "need" to reveal when he did. At best (most innocent), he just miscounted the votes and quite humorously revealed himself when he thought he was the leading vote-getter. Not only was he TWO votes away from the lead, but he was only tied for second place with someone else.

It was like a football player spiking the ball when he only reached the 10 yard line.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Crim

Say Neon's the Goth. By doing the seer fake reveal, he guarantees two things: 1) the wolves are coming hard for him, and 2) the body guard is duty-bound to engage and protect him.

That's the point I kept wondering about. If you're a wolf, you have to know there's a good chance he's being guarded. That's a bold play by the wolves to go for him despite that, and leads me to think there's some experience there.

But it comes down to the same thing -- if Neon was a starting wolf, no way he tries a move like that day 1. Later in the game come out as the seer to try and make the real one counter, sure. But not day 1. I'm convinced he was the Goth.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

What mechanisms other then being a wolf?

From post 1:

Bartender: You can get anyone wasted. Each night you can get one player wasted and they cant perform their night action.


...



Weight room manager: You are lean and mean, each night you can select a player to protect. You may or may not identify the attacker if successful.

...

Goth: You want to be a wolf so bad, you know the wolves identity but they do not know yours. You show up as a human on scans but are considered a wolf for victory conditions. If attacked at night you will become a wolf in every sense.

...

Golf Club: Gives you a 50% chance of surviving a night attack

...

Serving tray: gives you a 25% chance of surviving a night attack

Folding Table: You may use this one time to "baricade" a player abd they will be unable to perform their night action.

Seriously? Here's six mechanisms, Bug. Six reasons DT could still be alive, even if the wolves are on him like Pretty on Kathy Griffin.

[Crim]

Well, five. The conversion doesn't work in the context of my argument. My bad.

[DaddyTorgo]

interesting...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by molson

If NC was a wolf from the beginning, you'd think he would communicate about the other wolves about his crazy fake reveal, and you'd think they'd try to talk him out of it.

Unless the other wolves were newer players, and NC felt like he could make such a move unilaterally.

I've never had the experience of being a wolf, but that would be my mentality - checking with a more experienced player before I did anything drastic, but probably giving myself more leeway if I was the most experienced of the bunch.

Consider if RPI wasn't the valet. NC gains some trust with the reveal, and can make accurate choices because he knows who's bad (and so knows who's good), thus garnering him more trust. Most seers won't sacrifice themselves so early in the game to get one lone wolf. NC knows in making the move he is eventually a goner, because the real seer will come out. But he and his wolf friends would likely surmise the seer would keep quiet for a while, especially in a 20-person plus game. And if the seer doesn't, great! The wolves have a primo target they can try to take out either way.

NC was going to be lynched. He was going to die unless he did something. Wolves in particular like to avoid that happening, especially on Day One. This was a brassy way of getting something at little risk right now, and buying NC a little time. Only in an amazing twist, the actual valet got lynched. Oops.

I can see veteran wolves advising NC to do what he did at the end under threat of lynch.

[DaddyTorgo]

starting to maybe possibly see something

[molson]

Originally Posted by Crim

Six reasons DT could still be alive, even if the wolves are on him like Pretty on Kathy Griffin.

You've crossed some kind of line there.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am convinced, short of evidence otherwise, that Neon was a wolf to begin with and made a desperation move as he was about to get lynched that backfired on him tremendously. And the wolves went after someone else and either got blocked by the BG, blocked by an item or found and converted the Goth.

Heh. Right after I say I think the opposite. Gotta love WW.

Chief, can you ever imagine making a move like that day 1 if you're a wolf?