werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[oliegirl]

Ugh.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[st.cronin]

Hoops, why Pass and not oliegirl? To me its a coin flip.

[hoopsguy]

Mainly because I have more of a track record on Passacaglia's "usual play" compared to Oliegirl.

Pass is usually part of the solution as a villager, and I don't think that he has played in that fashion this game. He is normally willing to challenge people, asking questions that help him to formulate a plan for his votes. His play this game, particularly over the last couple of days, has felt very defensive to me.

I really wanted an answer on him yesterday rather than having to do so today because we were not in do-or-die mode yesterday. It is tougher to get a good wolf during the final day because of the need for villager unity. Good wolves are able to create enough reasonable doubt that it is tough to be united. Yesterday we had two more villagers along for the ride, giving us more of a margin for error.

[st.cronin]

I have the votes as two for Passacaglia (oliegirl, hoopsguy), one for hoopsguy (passacaglia), and one for oliegirl (EagleFan). That leaves just me and Mr. Dna to vote. Assuming Mr. Dna doesn't vote, that means if I vote for Pass, he gets lynched, but if I vote for olie, Pass probably changes his vote (and probably even if he and olie are the last two wolves), and olie gets lynched.

Is that the situation?

[st.cronin]

dola, also if I pick wrong we lose, so, no pressure.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, that is the situation if Eagles plans to keep his vote on Olie.

If you feel strongly about Olie then I'll change my vote over there as well. The important part is that we have all three villagers on the same candidate. I'll take my chances on you and Eagles being on my side at this stage.

If I'm wrong in who I'm trusting "we lose, so, no pressure."

[Passacaglia]

Looks like I managed to get online at work!

Hoops, you wanted "an answer" on me? What was the question?

[hoopsguy]

Again, my strong preference would be Pass. But it doesn't matter what my strong preference is if I can't get the other villagers to vote with me.

[st.cronin]

I need to head to class, I'll make a vote well before deadline though.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I want an answer on whether you are a wolf or not. And the only way we are going to find it out at this point is if you are removed by vote or somehow revealed during a botched night kill. That isn't just true of you, it is true of anyone in the game right now.

Pass, if you want to answer questions, can you give me a rundown of your play this game and how you feel that it supports the notion that you are a villager? I know it is kind of a "big picture" question, but if you have time to talk then let's start there.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure what all can be said about my play itself -- you're right, it's not my usual challenging style, but a lot of that comes from seeing things unfold as they happen -- if I read it while catching up, I'm not as challenging, because I tend to think the point is not worth bumping. However, I think you can look at my vote history and get a pretty villager feel from me. When I get home from work, I'll look back over my voting history (keeping in mind that I know you won't like the last couple days).

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I'm fine with you voting for me - it makes sense either as a wolf or a villager from your perspective. And you have a very good vote for Path on Day 5. The voting history is what kept me from pushing for you on the day that RendeR was the selection.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I'm fine with you voting for me - it makes sense either as a wolf or a villager from your perspective. And you have a very good vote for Path on Day 5. The voting history is what kept me from pushing for you on the day that RendeR was the selection.

That makes sense -- my path vote is probably the best feather in my cap, in terms of proving that I'm good -- it's what jumped out in my mind, at least. What's changed since the day that RendeR was the selection?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, if you read my posts from that day (Day 6) I thought you were the most likely wolf, but the Path vote forced me to reconsider and I went to look elsewhere. And chose poorly (RendeR).

What has changed is that we have had fewer and fewer people to choose from, and my reservations about your play this game have magnified as I've had less people to evaluate. And days have gone by where I still haven't seen you appear to be "fully engaged", despite the fact that the game is slipping away from us. I would hope that you care about this as a villager; previous games suggest that you do but this game hasn't given me that feeling.

The game isn't going to run much longer and we don't have time for many more mistakes. I really want to know if I've been right on this point or if I've been totally off-base for most of this week. Is that a little self-serving? It would be if I decided to let the villagers split their votes today. Which is why I'm putting out the call for unity on a candidate.

[EagleFan]

unvote oliegirl

I need to do some more research for this one. At this point I believe either Pass or hoops is a wolf. I had always leadned towards it being Pass but want to look back at some of the voting history to see if I can find anything that backs up one side or the other.

As was stated earlier, this is our last chance basically.

[hoopsguy]

Eagle, I'll be around to answer any questions that you might have. I feel like I've been pretty open and honest with my play all game long - hopefully you see the same thing when reviewing my posts.

Obviously I agree with your view that either Pass or I are a wolf, since I'm voting for him.

And, on the off chance that you end up being a wolf, congrats because I'm not going to catch you. I did not like your vote, and subsequent reasoning on Arlington yesterday and hoped that there was something that you weren't saying. But that isn't enough to deter me from my assumption that you are a villager.

[EagleFan]

going back and looking at it, I don't like my vote yesterday. I am putting aplce holder vote for now and will see a little more later after work and before the deadline, what is hopefully not the villagers true deadline.

vote Pass

That vote is based on previous suspicions but still may change if I find enough for me to swing it in a different direction (though directions are very limited at this time).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, if you read my posts from that day (Day 6) I thought you were the most likely wolf, but the Path vote forced me to reconsider and I went to look elsewhere. And chose poorly (RendeR).

What has changed is that we have had fewer and fewer people to choose from, and my reservations about your play this game have magnified as I've had less people to evaluate. And days have gone by where I still haven't seen you appear to be "fully engaged", despite the fact that the game is slipping away from us. I would hope that you care about this as a villager; previous games suggest that you do but this game hasn't given me that feeling.

The game isn't going to run much longer and we don't have time for many more mistakes. I really want to know if I've been right on this point or if I've been totally off-base for most of this week. Is that a little self-serving? It would be if I decided to let the villagers split their votes today. Which is why I'm putting out the call for unity on a candidate.

We've gone over this a few times, as to why I'm not as engaged this game. I'm not expecting special treatment for it or anything, but if that's your agrument for going after me (especially considering you keep changing your mind when other options become more popular), it screams wolf.

[st.cronin]

Eagle, not sure if this clears anything up or not, but hoops passed me the golf club yesterday (at least I assume it was hoops). I was very surprised by that, since hoops has been subtlely pushing me as a candidate for some time now.

[Passacaglia]

Post #1334 - Pass is worried that we are headed towards a tie
Post #1338 - Purdue stands by his vote for Crim
Post #1340 - Hoops encourages Purdue to put vote on one of leaders
Post #1341 - Pass tell Purdue how it will look if he leaves vote on "throwaway" candidate
Post #1342 - Purdue summarizes his play - suspects Crim, Cronin, Chief. Doesn't buy that RendeR is a wolf
Post #1343 - Purdue is convinced to "bail" on Crim vote
Post #1344 - Pass again tells Purdue to make a call on a leader if he has different levels of trust between them. Follows up in next post telling Purdue it ultimately is his call
Post #1346 - I cover posts by Purdue. One of conclusions is that I don't think a wolf would ask if they could self-vote as he did earlier in game
Post #1347 - I agree with Pass that Purdue gets to make the call, don't listen to us if he doesn't agree with our thoughts
Post #1348 - Olie joins in on Purdue vote, says "do what is best for village" which in this case is casting meaningful vote
Post #1349 - Purdue feels stuck with moving his vote. Trusts Eagle and olie the most, Hoops has slipped "because I'm not sure where to place you in all of this"
Post #1350 - Purdue unvotes Crim (18 minutes to deadline at this point)
1351 - Eagles "Day 1 post review"
1352 - I tell Purdue that it is not a two-man race, but a four-man race as there are others just one vote behind
1354 - I tell Purdue that he finds himself in a tough werewolf spot
1356 - Purdue, "Hoops, based on what you said, I'm going back over the top four and making a choice" (13 minutes to deadline)
1359 - Purdue is learning paranoia part of game
1360 - Path quotes his day 1 posts, says they are in character
1361 - Olie suggests that Cronin makes sense as vote for Purdue, given his "distrust" lists
1366 - Purdue appreciates advice from Olie, but goes with vote for Rum (3 minutes left) to force 3 way tie
1368 - Purdue thinks vote for RendeR is a bad play
1372 - Path thinks Purdue wants him to go RendeR, so follows him onto Chief (1 minute left)
1373 - Eagle "this is bad, only a wolf would want a tie tonight, especially if a fellow wolf was on the chopping block"
1374 - Lathum "deadline" at 9:30 PM
1375 - EagleFan moves vote at 9:30 PM, creating a tie between Path and Chief
1376 - Pass "this is seriously messed up"
1379 - Lathum "Eaglefan's vote WILL COUNT", posted at 9:31 PM
1382 - Path reiterates that he was trying to out-think the "most likely bad guy" Purdue
1383 - Purdue says vote on Chief was related to his Goth discussion
1390 - Pass to Eagle "Due, look at the posts!!! YOU forced the tie!"
1395 - Eagle says he thought Purdue was protecting Path, "oddly you are not on my suspect list" to Path

I'd like to highlight this part of the Day 5 post review. Can you see how looking back, I felt like hoops was setting us up to give PB an 'out' on his vote for Crim, and into a vote for someone else? This was probably the day I was most emotionally invested -- after Bug was a villager, I really thought we had a wolf in the path/Bug/cronin group, and wanted to get one then. I'm sorry I came out against EF for it, since it makes me look pretty bad, but you can see where I'm coming from -- before I knew that PB was a wolf too, I thought you had forced a tie.

[st.cronin]

oh, and

Vote Passacaglia

[Barkeep49]

Lathum: What about somebody who was killed already in the game? I wouldn't be able to because I have inside info, but presumably some other villager would be able to take the part.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Eagle, not sure if this clears anything up or not, but hoops passed me the golf club yesterday (at least I assume it was hoops). I was very surprised by that, since hoops has been subtlely pushing me as a candidate for some time now.

Why would you mention that you have it, if that's the case?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why would you mention that you have it, if that's the case?

Eagle said he was suspicious of hoops. I'm not going to be around at deadline, wanted all positive data points for hoops favor out there. You know, just in case.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Eagle said he was suspicious of hoops. I'm not going to be around at deadline, wanted all positive data points for hoops favor out there. You know, just in case.

That's a tough one for me to deal with, considering you're my #2 suspect -- I just haven't had a chance to get around to you yet. If you are both wolves, this is pretty much our last chance to do the right thing and get one of you.

[st.cronin]

Well, you're wrong. Its my belief that you and oliegirl are the last two wolves. As an endgame play, for a wolf to give a villager a tool to block a kill would be very foolish.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, you're wrong. Its my belief that you and oliegirl are the last two wolves. As an endgame play, for a wolf to give a villager a tool to block a kill would be very foolish.

When did a wolf give a villager a tool to block a kill? Anyway, can these items be passed more than once per day? I could see a wolf giving that item to a villager, knowing he's not planning on killing that villager that day.

[st.cronin]

Pass, let me ask you this: If I assume you're a villager, where do I look for the wolves? (assuming two left)

- Oliegirl: Ok, fine. There's a good case against her.
- EagleFan: Saved Chief Rum's butt on day 5.
- Mr. DNA: I wanted him lynched several days ago, but somebody is submitting the night actions, and its not him.
- hoopsguy: Gave me a golf club.

So I'm not voting for either hoops or DNA today. If you want to make a case for an alternate lynch, from my pov, it has to be either Eagle or olie. That you haven't made a case for olie (yet) will look very bad for her if you get lynched and turn up wolf. The case against Eagle is tough.

So my thinking is: Today we lynch pass, if he's not a wolf game over. If he is a wolf, we lynch oliegirl tomorrow, and we should be golden.

[Passacaglia]

Well, olie's in the thread -- let's hear her take on it.

[Passacaglia]

So much for that, I guess.

[Passacaglia]

Okay, I see that no one is willing to jump on the hoops bandwagon. Can anyone (besides cronin) tell me what makes you all believe he's good?

[Passacaglia]

I'm sticking with my vote on hoops for now. It looks like there's some push for me to make an argument for oliegirl, and I'm assuming that they want to make this a villager/villager situation when the evening comes. I'm not willing to be the pawn again.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

When did a wolf give a villager a tool to block a kill? Anyway, can these items be passed more than once per day? I could see a wolf giving that item to a villager, knowing he's not planning on killing that villager that day.

I get that argument, consider it is one I made about a week ago when we initially started discussing the item passing. However, we are near end game now - would a wolf really want to put that item out there for the villagers to potentially use the following day? Remember, the golf club is a 50% item, twice as good as the serving tray.

I passed it because I thought the chances of others being attacked were greater than the chances of me being attacked. I deliberated between Cronin and Eagles as the two candidates, then posted about the passing hoping that would move the wolves away from Eagles. Mission accomplished on that end, but they took out the guy that I thought was Wolf #2.

Also, Cronin has the opportunity to pass the club again today if he is so inclined. Or he can keep it.

Final point - I passed it to Cronin after he said he was gone for the day. The reasoning behind that was that if he was a wolf then the wolves would not know they had gotten the golf club, so they would still have to worry about it with their attack. I also kept my eyes open to see if Cronin was in this thread yesterday after I sent the PM. If he was, then I missed him.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm sticking with my vote on hoops for now. It looks like there's some push for me to make an argument for oliegirl, and I'm assuming that they want to make this a villager/villager situation when the evening comes. I'm not willing to be the pawn again.

I'm not trying to get an Oliegirl argument out of you. I'm definitely willing to listen to what you have to say about your reads on this game, why you have made decisions that you have, whatever game analysis you feel like bringing to the table.

It has nothing to do with being a pawn - it has to do with trying to convince the rest of us not to make a mistake if you are a villager. It really doesn't sound like your heart is into doing that, which could be interpreted a couple of different ways.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm not trying to get an Oliegirl argument out of you. I'm definitely willing to listen to what you have to say about your reads on this game, why you have made decisions that you have, whatever game analysis you feel like bringing to the table.

It has nothing to do with being a pawn - it has to do with trying to convince the rest of us not to make a mistake if you are a villager. It really doesn't sound like your heart is into doing that, which could be interpreted a couple of different ways.

I'd gladly answer why I've made the decisions I've made -- but I don't even know which ones you have a problem with..I know a long while back, you said you hated a list of distrust I had. I know you're not happy with my vote on you, but I know you're too good of a player to push on someone else, just because they're pushing on you. What decisions do you think were wolfish?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We've gone over this a few times, as to why I'm not as engaged this game. I'm not expecting special treatment for it or anything, but if that's your agrument for going after me (especially considering you keep changing your mind when other options become more popular), it screams wolf.

This would be fair for one day - Day 6 with RendeR. Prior to that, I was going after Path (wolf) for two days. I've now been going after you for nearly three, with the exception you are noting where I changed to RendeR.

I've speculated on numerous people as wolf - isn't that what you are supposed to do as a villager, run through scenarios and see if they make sense? But in terms of my votes, since Path dies I'm sure that I've gone harder after you than anyone else around here with limited deviation. And if I had been smart, I would have recognized the movement on that day a little earlier than I did and tried to get people off of RendeR before the deadline.

We'll get to talk about this in post-game. Either I've been wrong on you for days, and I'll look back on this as one of my most confused villagers games ever or I've been after you as a wolf and just haven't done a good enough job of selling it. But I really think it is a stretch to suggest I'm voting for the "flavor of the month" this game.

[sebastian0622]

I've read every page of this game. Cooley linked to it on the Gridiron Glory forums and you guys got me hooked early on. I'll play for MrDNA if you still need a replacement. I know I don't know many of you guys, but I'm a regular at the OOTP boards and have been a member of the FoF forums for a long time, just haven't played the game in a while. Sorry to interrupt.

edit: sorry for the edit, but that yellow color just wasn't working...

[Passacaglia]

Well, I'm going to move my vote to oliegirl. I'm still skeptical of all this, but with cronin clearing hoops, I figure it's not going to happen. Besides, I was still high on cronin, so maybe someone else is his partner. I feel like I've been a target for not being engaged in this game, while olie has been just as high on a lot of distrust lists, and much less vocal than me -- while I'm just vocal enough to take heat for it. I have to take my cat to the vet now, but I want to get this out there for people to chew on before I go.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE OLIEGIRL

[EagleFan]

If you really want me to trust you, pass me the golf club. Now I don't know who to trust. I have suspected cronin in the past and his defense of hoops just makes me think of that again. I don't know yet where my vote will go but it will be one of the leaders which tells me I have a 50/50 shot at a win.

I see it as either Pass and oliegirl or hoops and cronin at this point. I have pretty much ruled out DNA just because of way too much inactivity lately.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

I've read every page of this game. Cooley linked to it on the Gridiron Glory forums and you guys got me hooked early on. I'll play for MrDNA if you still need a replacement. I know I don't know many of you guys, but I'm a regular at the OOTP boards and have been a member of the FoF forums for a long time, just haven't played the game in a while. Sorry to interrupt.

edit: sorry for the edit, but that yellow color just wasn't working...

I'm fine with it if others are. I'm also glad you didn't include anything in this post that suggests which way you lean with your thoughts, as that would give people a reason to potentially object.

Glad to hear that we have entertained you and if for whatever reason you don't end up in this one I hope to see you in another game sometime soon.

Cooley = ???

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If you really want me to trust you, pass me the golf club. Now I don't know who to trust. I have suspected cronin in the past and his defense of hoops just makes me think of that again. I don't know yet where my vote will go but it will be one of the leaders which tells me I have a 50/50 shot at a win.

I see it as either Pass and oliegirl or hoops and cronin at this point. I have pretty much ruled out DNA just because of way too much inactivity lately.

I hope whoever ends up with the golf club is absolutely silent about it. Because if we miss this vote today, and there are two wolves, then it is going to come down to a 16% chance (1/3 * 50%) of us getting the block to extend the game.

If we have the wolves down to one player then we'll likely win this game and I've been overly stressed the last couple of days without good reason.

[EagleFan]

Isn't it kind of late in the game now for a replacement. The only reason to even need a replacement for him would be if he was actually a wolf at this point as we may be almost at end game after tonight and if he turns out to be an absent lone remaining wolf (if the lynch goes right tonight) that would mean no more night actions.

Just my .02

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hope whoever ends up with the golf club is absolutely silent about it. Because if we miss this vote today, and there are two wolves, then it is going to come down to a 16% chance (1/3 * 50%) of us getting the block to extend the game.

If we have the wolves down to one player then we'll likely win this game and I've been overly stressed the last couple of days without good reason.

I would absolutely be silent about it. Or maybe even act like I don't have it already and want it to be passed to me, or maybe.... the possibbilities are endless.

[EagleFan]

Damn, have to head into a meeting in a couple minutes. So much for the momentary break from the mundane.

[hoopsguy]

Sebastian, just got a look at your first WW game on that site - the villagers are going to need some serious luck to win that game. 11 vs 4, with the bad guys having a brutal wolf = uphill.

For next time around, assuming same numbers, I would go with 12 vs 3, with wolves getting the brutal. Most game balance mechanisms go with at least 4-1 and I've heard as high as 6-1 for starting ratios. These can, and should, move depending on roles for both sides.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'd gladly answer why I've made the decisions I've made -- but I don't even know which ones you have a problem with..I know a long while back, you said you hated a list of distrust I had. I know you're not happy with my vote on you, but I know you're too good of a player to push on someone else, just because they're pushing on you. What decisions do you think were wolfish?

Not always true - it was a big part of the reason I started suspecting Raiders yesterday afternoon. I had reached a tipping point with his posts saying "I think Hoops is a wolf" and then voting for the vote-leader with the thread of "If this lynch is bad, I'm coming for Hoops the next day". Those just screamed wolf at me and it turned out he was a villager.

What looks wolfish? Well, I can look at a bunch of votes but that isn't going to be fair because most of us left haven't done all that well with the votes. My suspicions are almost entirely based on style of play. It isn't the volume of posts that I care about, which would correlate with your new job and lack of availability. It is the fact that a player who I have seen become more direct and challenging in play style as a villager over the past couple of months seems to have retreated into a more counter-punch style this game. As a counter-puncher, you don't adopt many positions for me to attack, but are more intent on deflecting ideas.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sebastian, just got a look at your first WW game on that site - the villagers are going to need some serious luck to win that game. 11 vs 4, with the bad guys having a brutal wolf = uphill.

For next time around, assuming same numbers, I would go with 12 vs 3, with wolves getting the brutal. Most game balance mechanisms go with at least 4-1 and I've heard as high as 6-1 for starting ratios. These can, and should, move depending on roles for both sides.

I'll let Cooley know; he's running the game. Thanks for the advice.

As for why you'd want a replacement this late: having more active villagers is a good thing, because the wolves aren't as able to push the vote where they want it as easily if they're more outnumbered. The risk of leaving an inactive player unreplaced right now and him turning out to be a villager is higher than the reward of him turning out to be a wolf, as it's quite obvious there are enough wolves left to put in night kill orders as of last night.

Ok, I'll butt out now and let you folks decide.

[hoopsguy]

Eagle - I agree about the potential advantage if MrDNA is a wolf, but the game is a little broken right now without having the full complement of players. Both sides (I would assume) are adopting strategies to deal with it, but the best case scenario would be to not be in this position in the first place.

Ultimately, this is a moderator decision. Hopefully whatever way Lathum decides to go with this a decision is reached with enough time for everyone to react. Particularly if Sebastian is playing, so he has a chance to give his thoughts once he learns what side he is on.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If you really want me to trust you, pass me the golf club. Now I don't know who to trust. I have suspected cronin in the past and his defense of hoops just makes me think of that again. I don't know yet where my vote will go but it will be one of the leaders which tells me I have a 50/50 shot at a win.

I see it as either Pass and oliegirl or hoops and cronin at this point. I have pretty much ruled out DNA just because of way too much inactivity lately.

You have had an awful lot of spurious analysis in this game, you know.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, Sebastian - have you PM'd Lathum on this? If not then you should definitely do that ASAP.