Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Blade6119]

Today sucks for me, all my suspects are suspect...two of them are going at it(king and dubb), one gets my vote then dissapears(rpi), one isnt anywhere to be seen(mcsweeney) and one i can never read(hoops)...i hate this game sometimes

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Post #535 by Barkeep and post #555 by hoops also express concerns that dubb might be a wolf. So it is not just me.

Yea, but I think you are taking the hoops post out of context. He said he never gets a good read on me.

As for Barkeep, he presented a bunch of out of order posts with flawed logic that I responded to and he promised "more." But I've yet to hear it. And he's been voting for me since day 1.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I did say that, but that is because RPI is as good as dead today, I feel both of them are wolves. Like I said, my main plan is I don't want anyone to fly under the radar. If we push King and it turns out he's clean, I'm OK with that. But my gut tells me they are both wolves.

Dubbb, careful with your wording...that clean sentence might just save king...hes already exploiting it...if you want him, dead, dont give people reason to doubt your validity

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Bolded part mine. Didn't see that before. That would indicate in my mind that he is somewhat suspect but not entirely. Let me think for a sec.

Okay.

This is the only way that I see him being a wolf and his calling you out being a strategy:

12 of us left. 2 villagers died and 1 wolf. The cursed was hit last night, so I'd guess there are at least two wolves, probably three.

9-3 villagers today. If they wipe out another villager today, it would be 8-3 villagers. Tonight would bring it to 7-3. Tomorrow's lynch would go to 6-3 and the night kill would bring it to 5-3.

If dubb is a wolf, that play is way too early in the game to sacrifice himself. The only possible scenario is that (gasp) there are four wolves out there and this will be the endgame gambit for them.

There is another problem with this scenario: it's predicated that RPI is a villager...which I highly doubt at this point.

I just don't follow your logic in thinking he's a wolf just by calling you out. The wolves gain nothing at this point in the game unless RPI is a villager and there are four of them.

[hoopsguy]

Sack, sorry to hear that you are not going to be around for the duration. Neon, any plans to fill this slot? Post a general call on the message board, perhaps? Perhaps someone has been lurking and would be able to step in? Flounder, are you still with us? Whoever comes in has a lot of reading to do.

I'm frustrated that we are reduced to voting strategies such as "he was laying low" on Day 3. Not blaming anyone, but it feels like we are losing this day right now just hoping to blindly hit a wolf like on most Day 1s.

[dubb93]

Now that is a funny line.

Well I'm pushing you King, but you haven't said anything to make me any less suspecious of you.

The only thing you have said is you like to keep your name open as a suspect so the wolves don't eat you. And I'm not buying that.

[kingfc22]

Now if we are both villagers, which I doubt but, I'll put this out there anyways. We have to watch out for the "setup" play in which one of us is eaten tonight and the other is lynched and the wolves run off 3 in a row the following night.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by dubb93

As I've said, I understand people being away for a while, but I've seen this ploy pulled before. RPI has done it before for one when he was a wolf in a past game. He was never around for anything except to cast a vote and ALWAYS had an good excuse. In the end, he made it to the end of the game, but I managed to scare him into not attacking me and got Lathum's vote to win it for the villagers, but when the game was over RPI bragged about his "strong, silent game." I have a feeling that is what King was going for, and like I said, the longer we put off the vote for him the greater the chance he "flies under the radar."

This is a good point. Let me extrapolate this a little:

Pretty much everyone playing right now is experienced. We all have our strategies and ways of playing the game. The wolves' huge advantage is that they can communicate and ask each other for advice. So that means that we may be able to tell who's working in cahoots by the way they are playing the game differently. I highly doubt we'll be able to discern who is working together, but it's a good thing to keep in the back of your mind while we look at the posts.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

RPI has been silent. Did I miss something where he wouldn't be on? If my head was in the noose, I'd at least defend myself.

He might be out for the day... he was pretty spotty the one time we were both wolves.

[kingfc22]

Just a heads up, I'll be leaving for work in about 20 minutes

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

He might be out for the day... he was pretty spotty the one time we were both wolves.

[OOC]Weren't you, he, and I all wolves on the same team for one game? I seem to remember that.[/OOC]

[Blade6119]

Want to know something funny i just noticed?? Ive stated my list of suspicious people numerous times, and look at the last 4 votes onto sundvls after the outcome was certain

Mcsweeney, Dubb, RPI, hoops...in that order with hoops the last...all we need is a king vote and we got us a trend ....just noting that little tidbit that i found interesting...the first three were in three consecutive psots at #439-441 and hoops about a page later

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Want to know something funny i just noticed?? Ive stated my list of suspicious people numerous times, and look at the last 4 votes onto sundvls after the outcome was certain

Mcsweeney, Dubb, RPI, hoops...in that order with hoops the last...all we need is a king vote and we got us a trend ....just noting that little tidbit that i found interesting...the first three were in three consecutive psots at #439-441 and hoops about a page later

Nice find! I gotta leave to go home for the day. I'll be back on later to see if RPI responds to any of this. I am curious as to what defense he'll use.

[hoopsguy]

We don't have a clear swap with Dubb and King, so I'm inclined to avoid it for today and see if we can have our seer pick something up tonight (assuming he is alive to do this) without any compelling evidence. But if they do end up both villagers and pull us into a kill/kill sequence we are in terrible shape. Particularly if one is a twin.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

[OOC]Weren't you, he, and I all wolves on the same team for one game? I seem to remember that.[/OOC]

I don't remember you being on that team, in fact, I don't ever recall being on the same team with you. The other one I remember being teamed up with was MrBug.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, by on the same team, I meant, I don't ever recall a situation where we were both bad guys at the same time.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, you also need to watch out for early votes. It's not as conclusive with this one, where there may have been some prospect for talking us out of st. cronin, but it makes sense strategically to try to get a wolf into the early votes to score trust points.

[Blade6119]

Ive been mafia one i think, and that was the x-com game with neon and raiders...we converted hoopsguy...and i guess that jackass traitor fouts was originally on our team....bastard...so outside of a lot of talk with the current game GM i dont have much exp on the bad side...though ive been the turncoat and made famous the whole fake role reveal with that one game where i did like 4 different role reveals and finished with the reporters assistant role that won it...so i dont know many except raiders and soo far he seems on the level

[hoopsguy]

Blade, in regards to your post I think McSweeny is getting off VERY easy today. Right now I think he is my #2 candidate behind RPI based on:
1.) Failure to stake a position on RPI vs Pass, swinging from one to the other
2.) Ultimately casting the deciding vote on Pass the herbalist (yes, I understand that he was fighting for his life)
3.) I feel like there is less risk of an either/or scenario on a vote for him since there is no clearly defined person going after him like the Dubb/King. If I was confident that one of those two were wolves then I would go that direction and take the trade. But I'm not.

VOTE MCSWEENY

Also, it feels like there are a good number of people who are skating pretty free so far:
SackAttack (or his eventual replacement)
Blade
Barkeep
Mr W
Ardent
Raiders

While I don't have any of these guys at the top of my list, I'm concerned that basically half of the people in the game are not being actively or passively questioned. It is a heck of a lot easier to fire shots when no one is firing back at you.

[Blade6119]

Ardent and Mr.w are semi suspects due to the cursed kill and the reveal they killed fozzie next meaning they targeted a supposedly good player not gettigna ny heat...in this game, those two fit that mold best in my mind...id say hoops too, but hes already on my list for other reasons

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wait, what did I do to become a semi-suspect?

[dubb93]

I can say I have seen McSweeny lurking in the thread today. Weird he hasn't posted anything. I have a feeling he is waiting to see what happens between King/RPI, in my mind this does nothing but implicate him along with atleast 1 of them. Or we could take it as an implication of all 3 of them, McSweeny isn't posting b/c they are both wolves and he doesn't know what to do.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Wait, what did I do to become a semi-suspect?

Your a good player, and seeing they killed fozzie on night 2 makes me think they went after a good player night one and got a cursed...your a suspect becuase you would make a good prospect and im 99% sure you came in before the night one attacks

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I can say I have seen McSweeny lurking in the thread today. Weird he hasn't posted anything. I have a feeling he is waiting to see what happens between King/RPI, in my mind this does nothing but implicate him along with atleast 1 of them. Or we could take it as an implication of all 3 of them, McSweeny isn't posting b/c they are both wolves and he doesn't know what to do.

Stop accusing soo much, thats all youve been doing...it makes me suspect you more, which wolf or villager you dont want...state ideas, but your starting to jump around targets like mcsweeney did day one

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm flattered that you consider me a good player, but compelled to point out that my track record as a non-wolf isn't all that good. Come to think of it, my track record as a wolf isn't all that good either.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm flattered that you consider me a good player, but compelled to point out that my track record as a non-wolf isn't all that good. Come to think of it, my track record as a wolf isn't all that good either.

My track record as a villager is actually quite good but every person who has played with me hates me and thinks im horrible despite the fact i win most of the games i play on both sides...just perceptions, not facts that makes someones mind...but your welcome for the compliment, sorry for the distrust...but its there as someone was converted the first night and i since it wasnt me their not targeting the loudmout idiots...

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Stop accusing soo much, thats all youve been doing...it makes me suspect you more, which wolf or villager you dont want...state ideas, but your starting to jump around targets like mcsweeney did day one

I'm sorry, but I'm not jumping around. I started the day with King and McSweeny as my top suspects and I added RPI as one early in the day when I re-read through his posts. Just b/c I've voted one way doesn't mean I can't post ideas and thoughts about my other suspects that I feel strongly about. Hell, so far today you've accused me, hoops, rpi, king, and mcsweeney, you just weren't blunt about it like I'm being.

Besides, I think we get more info we you straight out accuse someone and present evidence to back it up, rather than just the evidence. That way they HAVE to respond.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm sorry, but I'm not jumping around. I started the day with King and McSweeny as my top suspects and I added RPI as one early in the day when I re-read through his posts. Just b/c I've voted one way doesn't mean I can't post ideas and thoughts about my other suspects that I feel strongly about. Hell, so far today you've accused me, hoops, rpi, king, and mcsweeney, you just weren't blunt about it like I'm being.

Besides, I think we get more info we you straight out accuse someone and present evidence to back it up, rather than just the evidence. That way they HAVE to respond.

Actually, feel free to be blunt...i just figured out a great way to use that to my advantage..do proceed dubb, thank you

[Poli]

Personally, I consider myself a horrible player at this. My hunches are almost always wrong. I should consult a Magic 8 Ball or something for inspiration, I guess. The game is fun, though. I kind of like it that the darn wolves lie so much and get me all twisted around. I don't like the "dieing" part, but it's all good.


I still don't buy RPI being a wolf. I haven't checked what hoops has to say (just got in from work), but I generally trust what he has to say. I'd say he's moving into my circle of trust. Other than that, I'm at a loss on which way to vote. I guess I'll reread the posts unless I read some compelling evidence in the future.

Any suggestions?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Actually, feel free to be blunt...i just figured out a great way to use that to my advantage..do proceed dubb, thank you

I don't know what type of advantage you are trying to use for, but if you try and use it against me it won't be to your advantage as I'm just a villager this game. But the advantage is you get to see what the other people have to say when they are on the hot seat.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Any suggestions?

...



(sorry, couldn't resist)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Here's an updated vote count, there's been two votes since the last one on page 19:
Kingfc - Dubb, RPI
Dubb - Barkeep
RPI - King, Blade, RA, st. cronin
McSweeny - hoopsguy

[Blade6119]

Not directing this at anyone in particular, but by people is suspect(somewhat or fully) there has been some lack of support for voting RPI which for me helps my current train of thought...Hoops saying mcsweeney was #2 behind rpi is interesting since he voted for mcsweeney...while mcsweeney is getting off easy it looks like right not RPI could get off too...still 3 more hours to go, and id like to get more discussion before we have to do this

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm going to vote for kingfc22 right now not because I think he's a wolf, but rather because a relatively close vote has a lot more potential to be useful than the current bandwagon on RPI-Fan.

VOTE KINGFC22

As should be obvious by my reasoning, this vote is not fixed and I'm going to try to check in regularly so I can change it under the right circumstances.

[Blade6119]

Dola, looking at that vote talley tells me rpi has more then i thought, but still my suspects are on other people....so id like to hear some better arguments for other people over rpi...in my mind rpi pushed hard on pass, tried to defend sun then gave up and voted for him after he was dead, and then did a quick vote today to start a bandwagon...anyone else better canidate?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

...



(sorry, couldn't resist)

That was brilliant.

Got another post coming in the not to distant future.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Dola, looking at that vote talley tells me rpi has more then i thought, but still my suspects are on other people....so id like to hear some better arguments for other people over rpi...in my mind rpi pushed hard on pass, tried to defend sun then gave up and voted for him after he was dead, and then did a quick vote today to start a bandwagon...anyone else better canidate?

I have no thoughts. I'm pretty confused by all the discussion. I would *assume* that a wolf would not be inclined to vote or support a vote for a wolf ... SnDvls, is the only known wolf, and SirFozzie was the only one to put him forward as a suspect (as far as I can recall) - so you all are fairly suspect to me. SnDvls dismissing RPI as a suspect is the only thing I can rely on. I will also assume that the seer is putting forward a known wolf as a suspect, so everybody that has been put forward so far is at least a little bit of a possibility in my mind.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I cast the vote on McSweeny at this point to get some conversation going on him. Like you, I'm not convinced that RPI is the wolf. If I vote for him I'm the 5th person on him and joining a bandwagon that I'm not fully backing although I certainly see (and largely agree with) the position stated by St Cronin on SnDvls steering votes away from RPI.

I'm hoping we bag a wolf today, but if that doesn't happen I don't want to see a vote talley listing 10+ people on RPI and not have anything to look at for voting patterns tomorrow. So I want to see if I can drive some discussion. It isn't a flat out accusation of McS, but it is intended to get him into our conversation today. For someone that was active the last couple of days he has been very quiet today.

[Barkeep49]

Dubb's explanation for his actions make sense in retrospect. The problem is that it is just one of several things he's posted. Dubb told us

Originally Posted by dubb

Once Blade brought up a PM being posted, I realized I may have been wrong.

Yet even after the aborted PM posting (post #364) Dubb defended SnDvls (post #424). So the claim that so it might have given him doubt (as well it should considering it was true), but it wasn't enough for him to exert some caution. Why not? He makes no claim to doing like Mr. Wednesday and pretending the post doesn't exist (a stance I support for its efforts to promote game integrity). So why wasn't that enough for Dubb to back off?

Several others have pointed out some fish remarks that have been made today as well. I liked the vote on Day 1 and like it now. I don't want to get into a pissing match with him over this, but barring an extraordinary revelation, I will be keeping my vote where it is.

[McSweeny]

lots of speculation about me going on today

i don't have any real thoughts as to who may or may not be a wolf. RPI seems like a pretty safe bet based on his day 1 actions.

King and Dubb going at it is also pretty interesting. Worse case scenario is that they're both villagers. I'd really like to think that one of them is a wolf. King's game long silence (until he started catching heat anyway) makes me lean towards him. I'm not leaning one way or the other on Dubb.

but unless we get some new developments soon, i'm going to vote for one of the three

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Dubb's explanation for his actions make sense in retrospect. The problem is that it is just one of several things he's posted. Dubb told us Yet even after the aborted PM posting (post #364) Dubb defended SnDvls (post #424). So the claim that so it might have given him doubt (as well it should considering it was true), but it wasn't enough for him to exert some caution. Why not? He makes no claim to doing like Mr. Wednesday and pretending the post doesn't exist (a stance I support for its efforts to promote game integrity). So why wasn't that enough for Dubb to back off?

Several others have pointed out some fish remarks that have been made today as well. I liked the vote on Day 1 and like it now. I don't want to get into a pissing match with him over this, but barring an extraordinary revelation, I will be keeping my vote where it is.

At that time I had no clue the PM had been posted for public knowledge. St. Cronin was a new player and I was going by the rules of the game. It wasn't untill post #432 that Blade told me Cronin posted the PM to the board and he saw it. At that point I realized he was telling the truth and voted SNDVLS.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I have no thoughts. I'm pretty confused by all the discussion. I would *assume* that a wolf would not be inclined to vote or support a vote for a wolf

It's not that simple, mainly because people get very suspicious, very quickly if the same people are always showing up on the wrong side of a vote. For that reason, it's convenient to slip in a wolf vote against a wolf when you can do it, especially if it's not a deciding vote (so that you aren't really voting against interest).

[Raiders Army]

[quote=McSweeny]i don't have any real thoughts as to who may or may not be a wolf. RPI seems like a pretty safe bet based on his day 1 actions./QUOTE]
I disagree. I voted on RPI based on two reasons:

#1: His day 1 actions, yesterday, and the editing of posts
#2: I trust st. cronin and blade so if they go that way, it makes sense.

Maybe #3 would be that there is no response from RPI. I would really hate to lynch someone without hearing their side of the story, but that may be what he's counting on.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

It's not that simple, mainly because people get very suspicious, very quickly if the same people are always showing up on the wrong side of a vote. For that reason, it's convenient to slip in a wolf vote against a wolf when you can do it, especially if it's not a deciding vote (so that you aren't really voting against interest).

The wolves could also have another strategy in that they do the initial vote, get a swing in the opposite direction and then go that way. It would be a pretty safe strategy to do that since it would look like an early vote against someone, but then the wolf also has the leeway to switch the vote to save a wolf in the future.

[st.cronin]

I'm certainly open to other suggestions - I just haven't seen anything concrete in any other theories.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Here's an updated vote count, there's been two votes since the last one on page 19:
Kingfc - Dubb, RPI
Dubb - Barkeep
RPI - King, Blade, RA, st. cronin
McSweeny - hoopsguy

So, an hour and a half to go and right now RPI is dying...im find it quite interesting how king and dubb have stopped arguing entirely now that their not really on the chopping block, that despite his one comment mcsweeney has basically stayed wayyy quiet and rpi is nowhere...king not voting for dubb despite accusing him a couple times during the argument is also interesting..either he really thinks rpi is one or he wants rpi dead and himself to not be in the crosshairs

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I voted on RPI based on two reasons:

#1: His day 1 actions, yesterday, and the editing of posts
#2: I trust st. cronin and blade so if they go that way, it makes sense.

Maybe #3 would be that there is no response from RPI. I would really hate to lynch someone without hearing their side of the story, but that may be what he's counting on.

solid enough reasoning for me

VOTE RPI-FAN

[Blade6119]

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE MCSWEENY

A bandwagon is starting andi dont like it...and who happens to be jumping on?

[McSweeny]

a bandwagon? that's not a proper bandwagon!

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE MCSWEENY

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

a bandwagon? that's not a proper bandwagon!

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE MCSWEENY

?????? Now im entirely lost.....