Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Mr. Wednesday]

With everyone else being human on your scorecard?

[Barkeep49]

So I say RPI is a human and now you want to tell me that if we kill him and he's a human that makes me even guiltier? It looks like you're not going to be killed today dubb, so you can stop trying to make your outragous claims.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm going to throw a scenario out there that may seem a little crazy but reading back through this may make some sense...

RPI COULD be the cunning wolf.

I could see that. Maybe. Implicating me, well, I don't know what to say. I'm a villager. I understand you're just 1. trying to save your neck and 2. making suggestions, but I'm clean. Like I said, I'd stake hattrick supporter on it. In essence, I'd be offering 20 bucks on my safe knowledge of me being a villager. As I've explained in other games, I'm not willing to lose 20 bucks over this game. I'm telling the truth.

[st.cronin]

The whole cunning wolf thing throws me off. I can't understand why the wolves didn't go cunning the first night, when they were most likely to be witnessed.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The whole cunning wolf thing throws me off. I can't understand why the wolves didn't go cunning the first night, when they were most likely to be witnessed.

They cant afford to lose the cunning wolf just to get the witness...if i were them, save it until a later vote when the seer has to come out to get you, you show up as a villager and the other wolf eats the seer....after that the villagers are doomed....but if your a wolf, dont do that...tell me know

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't understand why they didn't go cunning every night, I see a bunch of upside and little downside. Maybe trying to save it for later in the game, so we would doubt the seer?

[hoopsguy]

The guys I trust the most are split across three different people - perfect

I'm curious, I've seen the self-preservation play invoked a couple of different times now by people who claim to be villagers. What do people think is the right play if you know that you are an ordinary villager and you are not convinced that the person you are hanging with your switch is a wolf? Is there some point where it might make sense to say "yes, we lose a villager and I'm out of the game, but the seer and the lovers are still alive". I haven't been in this position, but I've been wondering about this as I tried to work through McSweeny scenarios earlier today.

It doesn't seem like there is much value having the vote on McSweeny at this point as he is lagging behind on the votes. I'm going to make the move that I feel is the most likely to grab a wolf which is to

UNVOTE MCSWEENY
VOTE DUBB93

There is some suspicion that Dubb has been spotted, and he finds himself in a toe-to-toe with King. Lots of heat being generated around him at this point, enough that I think this is our best option with the given information.

Dubb, I can meet you halfway on your last post, but at some point if you are weighing between two theories that appear to have equal merit then go with the simplest. Barkeep and RPI slow-rolling you would be pretty damn subtle - not impossible, but less likely than you are a wolf that has had the heat turned up on him in a manner similar to SnDvls yesterday (minus the monster bandwagon).

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The whole cunning wolf thing throws me off. I can't understand why the wolves didn't go cunning the first night, when they were most likely to be witnessed.

The cunning wolf was most likely designated by Neon before the game started. And when he is lynched he will show up as a regular villager, not a wolf.

With everyone else being human on your scorecard?

If that were true, that would make everyone else clean by my scorecard. I wouldn't mind some discussion on it real quick if possible.

So I say RPI is a human and now you want to tell me that if we kill him and he's a human that makes me even guiltier? It looks like you're not going to be killed today dubb, so you can stop trying to make your outragous claims.

I didn't really have a chance to analyze it at the time as the bandwagon was on. But you said:

1. After RPI implied you were the seer.

2. In a way to imply you were the seer.

3. You never out right denied being the seer. Just said you wanted to be clear your not implying you are, but like #2, you went on to imply you were.

4. You influenced St. Cronin, on the belief you were the seer. Something I know isn't true. I'm not the seer, but if you were, you would have already scanned and cleared me.

[Poli]

Hoops,

Can you explain why you think dubb is a wolf over kingfc? I'd like to know you're thoughts on both of them if we have time. I'm willing to change my vote, though I'd need solid convincing.

[Barkeep49]

I want to reiterate a few points.

1. I am not the seer and thus have only the insight of my gut and what I've collected in evidence
2. Dubb's actions fit that of an effective werewolf type:
A. He's not hiding in the shadows
B. He's trying to "help" the team by doing grunt research the net result of which is nothing
C. He was willing to protect a werewolf well past the point most others had realized the truth
3. Time and time again he has made contradictory statements. Several people consider him a top notch player, but he's surely floundered around this game

If you vote for Dubb do it because of his posts and actions not because of me.

[Poli]

Potential dola,

Who do you trust?

[Blade6119]

Well this might throw a wrench into things, but

UNVOTE MCSWEENY
VOTE RPI-FAN

[Poli]

Good lord, what's the tally now?

[Barkeep49]

Dubb I hope my latest post is explict enough for you.

[hoopsguy]

I've got much less info to work with on Kingfc - he has been quiet for spurts in this game, but vocal when called out by Dubb.

Honestly, King would be about 4th on my list right now behind Dubb, RPI, and McSweeny. Obviously subject to change ... was really expecting some late-day revelations (real or invented) that would make this a little easier on all of us.

If Dubb is in fact a villager then we have a growing list of suspects emerging for tomorrow. But I think that is going to be true no matter which person ends up lynched.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by dubb93

The cunning wolf was most likely designated by Neon before the game started. And when he is lynched he will show up as a regular villager, not a wolf.

This revolves around the idea that the wolves know which one is cunning, and they exercise some degree of control over who carries out the night attack (subject to the limitation that the preferred attacker must be available to PM the choice to Neon).

[Blade6119]

as odd as this sounds, the birthday check dubb did on flounders makes me thinks hes legit...who else would care that much whos viewing the thread if they werent a villager

[hoopsguy]

And we have a guest viewing - hmmm, what are chances that is a wolf on another computer?

[dubb93]

Anyone got the vote tally?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Estimated current count
kingfc22 - dubb93, Mr. Wednesday, ardent enthusiast, RPI-Fan
dubb93 - Barkeep, st. cronin, hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny, Blade6119

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

This revolves around the idea that the wolves know which one is cunning, and they exercise some degree of control over who carries out the night attack (subject to the limitation that the preferred attacker must be available to PM the choice to Neon).

My interpreation, was it isn't used on an attack. Just when lynched. Thus, even if the cunning wolf was the one witness, he would still be witness. Only when he was lynched we would show up as a villager. That was how I took it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

This revolves around the idea that the wolves know which one is cunning, and they exercise some degree of control over who carries out the night attack (subject to the limitation that the preferred attacker must be available to PM the choice to Neon).

let's build off of this:

Who do we know wasn't around the first night? The fact that the wolves didn't have this person carry out the attacks despite the advantages of doing so suggests that perhaps the wolf was unavailable to send in the vote. I don't remember offhand and would have to look, but perhaps people with sharper memories might recall.

[dubb93]

That last post wasn't good. I've never seen so many typos in a single post.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yes, but bear with me here -- if the cunning wolf carries out the attack and is witnessed, he can attempt to cast doubt on the witness by accusing someone else, then we either lynch the witness (good for the wolves), or upon lynching the cunning wolf, we now doubt the veracity of the cunning wolf and possibly another player as well. The witness will recognize the cunning wolf as a wolf, but we will not be sure the witness was correct after the lynching.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by dubb93

My interpreation, was it isn't used on an attack. Just when lynched. Thus, even if the cunning wolf was the one witness, he would still be witness. Only when he was lynched we would show up as a villager. That was how I took it.

Right but if the cunning wolf gets lynched and shows up as villager, we'd have lynched St. Cronin the next day for being the wolf who convinced us he was the witness and in effect lost two days with worthless votes.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The witness aspect of the cunning wolf is out the window, but the "cast doubt on the seer" bit that I mentioned above is still in play.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Yes, but bear with me here -- if the cunning wolf carries out the attack and is witnessed, he can attempt to cast doubt on the witness by accusing someone else, then we either lynch the witness (good for the wolves), or upon lynching the cunning wolf, we now doubt the veracity of the cunning wolf and possibly another player as well. The witness will recognize the cunning wolf as a wolf, but we will not be sure the witness was correct after the lynching.

Why are we debating the witness...that ship has sailed

[hoopsguy]

AE, you asked about trust. Not much today has altered what I had earlier although I suspect that we'll see some results post-deadline that will make this obsolete pretty quickly.

1.) St Cronin - very close to complete trust due to villager role
2.) Mr W - replacement player, very little in posts that has set off 'spider sense'
3.) Blade - feel like he is playing a good pro-villager game

Following St. Cronin's vote felt like a decent compass in the event that I didn't have a decent sense of where to go. But ultimately I went with Dubb and felt, at least a little bit, reassured when I saw that I was on the same person as StC.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

let's build off of this:

Who do we know wasn't around the first night? The fact that the wolves didn't have this person carry out the attacks despite the advantages of doing so suggests that perhaps the wolf was unavailable to send in the vote. I don't remember offhand and would have to look, but perhaps people with sharper memories might recall.

That is an excellent thought. I assume that the cunning wolf KNOWS he is the cunning wolf - I believe the rules are silent on the issue, but it's possible only Neo knows which wolf is cunning. Otherwise, yeah, it makes no sense for the wolves not to use the cunning wolf each and every night.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Right but if the cunning wolf gets lynched and shows up as villager, we'd have lynched St. Cronin the next day for being the wolf who convinced us he was the witness and in effect lost two days with worthless votes.

Only one day would have been lost, the one where we killed st. cronin. The lynching of the cunning wolf would still have been good for us.

[Mr. Wednesday]

kingfc22 vs. dubb, and I just don't have a good read on whether I should switch up or not.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Only one day would have been lost, the one where we killed st. cronin. The lynching of the cunning wolf would still have been good for us.

Well I said two days lost because we get no vote patterns. One less wolf is very good, but less information is bad. The good thing about today is that when we find a wolf we'll have evidence to go back over and examine.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Very much so. I take a certain amount of solace in knowing that I instigated a bit of vote trading, even if my vote for kingfc22 turns out to be wrong.

[Barkeep49]

If there is a cunning werewolf in the game he knows it. For both blessed and cursed it makes it clear that they do not know their role until attacked. The lack of a similar statement for the cunning role leads me to believe the wolf will know it is him.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Very much so. I take a certain amount of solace in knowing that I instigated a bit of vote trading, even if my vote for kingfc22 turns out to be wrong.

And I do the same with dubb.

[hoopsguy]

With as close as today's vote was (speaking without knowing the results, so please don't take this the wrong way) it is too bad that Sack Attack was unable to participate. Every person had a huge impact in today's results, which is pretty rare in this game.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

kingfc22 vs. dubb, and I just don't have a good read on whether I should switch up or not.

vs. RPI-Fan too, but for the time being I'm still reading him as misguided human.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

vs. RPI-Fan too, but for the time being I'm still reading him as misguided human.

I am still at least a little bit suspicious of him. I suspect that if he is a wolf, he is the cunning wolf ...

[Mr. Wednesday]

And now we wait for Neon to get back... I'll try to check in later.

I'd like for tomorrow to be an off day, as ND has a home football game so I'll be out of commission for basically all morning and all afternoon, possibly not getting home until 8 pm or later. If there is action, I'll try to get in a vote, but I will not be around until late to explain it and/or defend myself.

[Barkeep49]

I would love to get in 1 day over the weekend. Will Tuesday 8 PM or Wedneday 8 PM be our last vote until after Thanksgiving?

[Blade6119]

We are sooo not having a day off becuase Notre Dame is playing...sweet jesus no...especially not for them

[Poli]

Voting is over, right?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Voting is over, right?

yes...im still lost on the tie thing but someone is dead

[Poli]

I suspect it is, so which of the two will actually be hung?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think the most likely scenario is that RPI-Fan is clear. My reason for thinking so:
* Railroading Passacaglia is too bold of a play for a wolf. I especially don't like it for the cunning wolf, as the cunning attribute gives the wolves a shot at discrediting either the witness or the seer.

* He's not a great night 1 target for the wolves. Having just railroaded Passacaglia, he may work out to be a valuable player to leave alive -- one sowing confusion and misguided attacks. A safer target is someone like hoopsguy or Raiders Army, someone respected as an analyst and potentially dangerous as an opponent.

I think my second reason is weaker than the first (leaving cursed as a more viable possibility), mainly because the wolves have a tendency to not kill off the guy that I would choose to kill off if I were a wolf.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I would love to get in 1 day over the weekend. Will Tuesday 8 PM or Wedneday 8 PM be our last vote until after Thanksgiving?

Only Saturday is a bad day for me, and even then, I will be able to participate in a limited fashion -- I can definitely make an effort to get something in before I head out to tailgate, and there's a decent chance that I'm back before 9 pm and so will have a chance to check in before things close. Sunday is wide open.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, if I counted right, kingfc22 was the lynchee outright.

[hoopsguy]

It is always comforting to know that my fellow players would kill me on night 1 if given the chance.

[Mr. Wednesday]

It's a compliment.

[hoopsguy]

Did anyone find the voting activity stuff I posted last night mildly interesting or a factor in their thought process today? It takes quite awhile to collect that stuff and I'm not necessarily inclined to continue using it if people don't consider it useful.