Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Barkeep49]

Seen this way Hoopsguy's switch makes far more sense. At the time of his vote there were two votes for his candidate. By switching to dubb he was hoping for one more switch before the deadline, to push dubb over the top. Makes sense to me.

McSweeny's voting for himself, even temporarily, is something I've only see wolves do. Makes little sense even given the context to me.

I would love to hear more explanation from Wednesday and Raiders about the reasoning for their votes. Both King and I voted first, and then did not change our votes during the day. This makes sense: we both felt we had a case, so why change? Every other player changed at least once, except those two.

Dubb's voting to me is also troubling. He ended up voting in the end for who he started voting for, but changed his vote twice in 10 minutes with NO intervening votes. The other people to have two consecutive votes are Ardent, who voted and then unvoted and did so 40 minutes apart with discussion inbetween, and McSweeny who did his wacky vote.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Seen this way Hoopsguy's switch makes far more sense.

Agreed. I'm beginning to wonder if Hoops wasn't just trying to lay some protection for kingfc.

My circle of trust is evolving. St. Cronin obviously, you (barkeep), and probably dubb, though he's pointing at me incorrectly. Hoops is on the outside looking in, pending his reaction.

[Poli]

Dola, another concern for me now is perhaps McSweeny, who I noticed was reading the thread when I left for college this morning.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Edit: I'll be back later this afternoon. Blade, I hope you're happy with my analysis.

......


I cant comment on whether or not i like what you say, but i can say its about time you made a super long post like the vampire game....though that post did lose you the game

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Dola, another concern for me now is perhaps McSweeny, who I noticed was reading the thread when I left for college this morning.

While I have my own set of concerns about McSweeny just because someone reads the thread with-out posting does not necessarily raise ebrows with me. I've gone back and checked several things out a few times with-out posting anything new. I also will sometimes type up a post and decide that it doesn't add anything new to the discussion, or will make me too much of a target for the wolves, and decide not to post it.

That said, I would love to hear some more from him.

[Raiders Army]

I'm going with McSweeny tomorrow.

VOTE MCSWEENY

As I said before, I thought either Blade, McSweeny, or myself was a wolf from the Pass vote. I know I'm not a wolf and Blade was killed by the wolves....so that leaves McSweeny.

I find it hard to believe that no wolf voted for Pass on day 1. By this logic, it's either him or me.

[McSweeny]

well looks like my head is on the chopping block this time around.

but anyway, pennywisesb's silent game is not sitting well with me so he's getting my vote this time around. maybe it'll draw him out.

VOTE PENNYWISEB

[hoopsguy]

Ardent, I certainly did not view my vote on Dubb as being of no consequence. We had a three horse race developing at the time and I cast the vote on the person I thought was the most likely wolf.

If I had switched my vote from McSweeny (I was the first on him) to RPI then the argument would be that I had contributed to the lynching of a villager. I'm pointing this out to demonstrate that it is pretty easy in werewolf games to shape the information to fit the argument you want to make.

I'm not advocating that someone hold me in a position of trust or distrust based on post count. I've got a pretty established pattern of posting a lot in werewolf games. I would ask anyone to evaluate the content of my posts over their volume in terms of determining if I'm good/evil.

Ardent, I don't know that RPI was a villager even now that he is dead. I strongly suspect he was at this point just because the odds of him as cunning wolf are pretty low, but I certainly didn't know his role on Friday. And at no point in the game have I had any thoughts of trying to take heat off of Kingfc.

I have some more thoughts on this but I'm posting this from my parents house so I'll save those until I get home later tonight.

[Poli]

I'm not sure I'm buying it, hoops. It just doesn't make sense to me. I think you were trying to create a three horse race by your vote for dubb. I think you knew RPI was a villager, or is the cunning wolf. I think you know kingfc's and dubb's true identity, and that's why you voted for dubb. Keep the 3 horse race, keep the heat off kingfc, who I think may be a wolf as well.

I think you didn't cast that last vote on RPI because you don't want people looking at you right now. I think you don't want that because you may be a wolf. I certainly thought that of Blade6119 last night, and was mightily surprised to find the wolves killed him this morning. He made a perfect scape goat for you guys, and you or they blew it.

I'm pinning you for this right now.

[saldana]

i am a villager, nothing more, but i have to give mcsweeney a little (and i stress A LITTLE) bit of slack, depending on how long it has been since he last logged on. this might be the most active werewolf thread i have ever seen, and if he wasnt on yesterday for about 3 or 4 hours, he could have had about 50 to 70 posts to catch up on (i would know)...now if people saw him on the thread for a length of time and still not posts, that might be a different story, but we all should remember how lengthy this thread is...it took me over an hour to catch up from starting from day 2 (after pass got whacked)

i do have one question though, PING:ARDENT, how exactly did Dubb make your circle...he hasnt shown anything to change what blade was on to during day 2 and 3?

[McSweeny]

a quick check shows that pennywise hasn't been on since 11-18. the fact that he hasn't been lurking around kind of weakens the silent case against him

however, my vote still stands until he responds to the charges at hand

[Poli]

My reasoning is this, I think Hoops is a wolf. Hoops voted for dubb last night when he could have easily voted for kingfc. Even though it pushed dubb closer to his death, I doubt a wolf would take that risk at that point (wolf pushing a wolf to the rope, if you will, not going to happen). It was too close. I think Hoops may have been trying to push another villager up.

Therefore, dubb makes it to the outside of the circle.

I agree, and I can cut him some slack. I'm also cutting you some slack till you get acclimated.

[McSweeny]

dola

did we ever figure out why Mr. Wednesday voted for RPI on day one but then voted for King on day three?

[Poli]

My guess is that Mr. W decided RPI was a villager (as did I), and that Kingfc is a wolf (as do I).

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

My guess is that Mr. W decided RPI was a villager (as did I), and that Kingfc is a wolf (as do I).

well obviously

i was just wondering what in RPI's actions lead him to think that he was no long a wolf or what in King's actions lead him to believe that his more likely a wolf candidate

[Poli]

I don't know. RPI seemed too brash to be a wolf, cunning or not. Kingfc became more of a wolf to me over the past day or so.

[hoopsguy]

OK, Ardent. Let's work with the idea that I'm a wolf just to play out the scenario:

1.) Am I an original wolf or a converted wolf?
2.) Is your thinking I'm a wolf dependent on Kingfc as a wolf? Could I be a wolf without him being a wolf? Could he be a wolf without me being a wolf?
3.) If we are both wolves then why vote for me first instead of King?

I really want to understand your thinking here so I can determine if you are thinking too hard (misled villager) or trying to set me up (wolf). Just like I tried to give Blade the same benefit of the doubt when he kept having me pop up on his list of suspects.

Of course, that would have been a really good plan for me as a wolf, right? Pop the only guy that has hinted at me in a wolf capacity before you this afternoon?

I'm not sure if King is a wolf or not. If I had my choice yesterday we would have strung up McSweeny instead of RPI. I am inclined to put my vote on him again today because I am more convinced, at this moment, that he is a wolf than I am convinced that you are. I'm not inclined to be bullied into voting for King to prove a point to you. If you think King is a wolf, then I would encourage you to vote for him and begin building consensus around that pick.

[Poli]

1. My thinking...I don't know. It would make sense for you to be our best friend, a wolf in sheep's clothing if you will. I don't know if it matters if you've been converted or not.

2. My beliefs are not solely dependent on kingfc being a wolf, though it does make me believe more that you are a wolf. I seriously doubt either of you are NOT a wolf.

3. However, I feel stronger now that you're a wolf than he is, so that's why my vote is for you. Additionally, with all your analysis, if you are a wolf you're simply leading us, the village sheep, to the slaughter. Let's get it out there, I highly doubt the wolves, with all your analysis, would let you live this whole time. My goal as mafia was to get rid of, in my mind, the intelligent villagers that may figure out who the mafia was (note, I think I've only been on the bad side twice in my werewolf game career).

I don't expect you to like the fact I think I have you figured out. I suspect you'll try to turn up heat on me.

I'm not trying to pressure you into voting for kingfc. I highly doubt you would do that, anyway.

[Poli]

Lots of people here, and it's quiet. Tooooo quiet. Especially for two people I view as potential wolves.

[hoopsguy]

1. I think it matters a great deal. The converted wolf won't go brutal. The converted wolf will show up as a wolf, not a villager.

What I'm expecting is that you lynch me, I show up as a villager, and then you say "Oh, he was the cunning wolf. Lets lynch Kingfc next."

2. I'm not sure of this either. Like I said, I have no idea if King is a wolf.

3. Well, the wolves didn't let Blade live with all of his analysis. Quite frankly, I'm not sure why I'm still alive. My gut tells me that it is because I'm not doing a very good job of applying pressure on the right one or two people yet.

So do I now show that I'm a villager by not logging in like Pennywise? By flip-flopping votes on whoever has the best shot of getting lynched, like McSweeny? I'm just not sure what kind of game you want me to play.

In terms of turning up the heat on you, your actions in regards to Dubb do have me increasingly anxious:

Post #680 - you vote for Dubb (three hours before deadline)
Post #682 - Dubb says there is bandwagon around RPI, Barkeep, and Ardent
Post #686 - Dubb says that Ardent is blindly following RPI
Post #692 - Ardent says that he will reconsider vote on Dubb. And, of course, that I'm in his circle of trust.
Post #698 - Ardent is wavering between King and Dubb
Post #701 - Ardent unvotes Dubb (2.5 hours before deadline)
Post #720 - Ardent votes for King (2 hours before deadline)
Post #725 - Ardent wants to hear my thoughts

After going through these posts, does it feel like I'm going out on a limb to suggest there is some kind of effort on your part to set me up? I end up casting my vote on a guy that you had voted for only a couple of hours earlier. I post what I consider coherent thoughts on why I voted in the direction that I did. And now this makes me a wolf covering for Kingfc?

If I'm going for a two-wolves-for-price-of-one theory then I would speculate that you and Dubb were wolves and that you staged a vote for him, only to be talked off the ledge. Furthermore, you laid the groundwork to call me out the next day which would explain why you didn't kill me last night. Paranoia? I don't think it is any bigger stretch than the scenario you have tried to box me into this afternoon.

[Barkeep49]

Frankly I'm still waiting to see if anyone would like to react to the questions I raised back in post 900, particularly Wednesday and Raiders.

[kingfc22]

In regards to your bolded line, I would say that hoops is probably next since they got rid of Blade last night. I still think Dubb is a wolf and here is my reason why.

At this point in the game the wolves need to run off a bunch of kills in succession to win. If you have 2 people going at each other like Dubb and myself, then it is best for the wolves to kill one of them to setup the other to be lynched the next day. However if one is a wolf, then they are not going to sacrifice a guy for a 1:1 swap.

Instead, they killed Blade. What did that do for them? Were they hoping to get one of the lovers? Were they searching for the seer? They didn't succeed in putting heat on anyone for the next lynch.

I still think RPI was the cunning wolf because we are running low on people who voted for Pass. I still think dubb is a wolf and I'm beginning to suspect AE since he is defending dubb and accusing hoops, who I have yet to see mislead anyone.

[hoopsguy]

King, thanks for providing cover for me

[Poli]

Funny, I expect we'll lynch you and you will show up as a wolf. I expect we can then move on from there, possibly to kingfc, if I have anything to do with it. I suspect you know full well if kingfc is a wolf.

The wolves are letting you live because you are one. I don't know why I didn't see this before. Blade, I love ya, blue, but your analysis hasn't quite been what hoops has been. I know, I know, I KNOW that if you were a villager, and I was a wolf, I'd have you gutted by now. No doubt in my mind. There's no way I'd go after anyone, anyone, ANYONE, but the guy who's analyzing the most. Blade's been known to be a loose cannon. Everyone knows that. Darn near everyone knows that the bad guys like to keep the kid alive because of it. A bad play by the wolves, and a bad play by you, I think.

My actions against Dubb...oh boy. I knew you'd try to find something. I'm not even going to bother reading it. I know full well I'm a villager. Everyone here should. I'd place the hattrick supporter on it. It's my golden ticket. I'd offer to anyone that's willing to take the bet. EVERY time I've put that out there, I'm a VILLAGER. EVERY TIME. Check my record, I'd bet it's better than yours. I'm not willing to shell out cash/supporter for this game...which makes my proposition even better. Let's place a bet, hoops. I'll bet you I'm a villager. Heck, I'd go out on a limb and BET you're a wolf.

[kingfc22]

I'm still wating for Mr. W to respond to my post #890

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

King, thanks for providing cover for me

Just what I'd expect, actually.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Frankly I'm still waiting to see if anyone would like to react to the questions I raised back in post 900, particularly Wednesday and Raiders.

Questions? Where? I see the voting patterns, but not the questions.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Just what I'd expect, actually.

If I was playing the retard wolf.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

If I was playing the retard wolf.

There have been worse plays.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Mr. W - On day 1 you ended up voting for RPI-fan saying that he was "pushing way to hard" to lynch the herbalist. So what changed on day 3 for you not to vote for him? I'm just curious because his actions on day 1 were the reason I voted for him on day 3.

Bolded my question for ya since I think you missed it.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Bolded my question for ya since I think you missed it.

I don't think he's been online.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, in regards to a switched vote I did it because McSweeny only had two votes and did not feel he was going to pick up a third based on the conversation at that point. Between King, RPI, and Dubb I felt like Dubb was the most likely wolf based upon information that you had posted earlier, the fact that he was bickering with King, and that the guy I trust the most (Cronin) had voted for him.

I didn't think RPI was a wolf by the end. I don't think that he would be ballsy enough, as a wolf, to go after the herbalist with the vigor that he did. If he was a wolf, then he played a baffling game to me. And I don't think RPI is a dumb guy, so this was hard for me to accept even though his behavior seemed anti-villager.

I didn't know where to go with Kingfc. No one had raised concerns with him except Dubb, and that initially stemmed from him being quiet rather than any action he had taken. If that makes me a King apologist, then so be it.

[Poli]

I don't buy it. St. Cronin is trusted due to his witness. Not to the fact he has inside knowledge on everyone. Keep trying.

[Poli]

Actually, now that I think of it, I probably won't last through the night phase. We'll lynch you, I hope. You'll be a wolf. The remaining wolves will likely take me out because of it.

Heck, even if you're the cunning wolf, I'll likely be cut down.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I trust Cronin because I know he isn't a wolf. I factor the voting decisions of people I know are not wolves considerably heavier than people I count as unknowns.

Keep trying? To what, answer Barkeep's question? I think I did that pretty successfully on my first try, thanks.

[hoopsguy]

Chances are pretty good that if you lynch a villager (me, in case I'm being too subtle) that the wolves will leave you for the other villagers to lynch the next day.

[Poli]

Righhhhht. No offense to St. Cronin, but I totally expect a wolf to blindly follow the new guy. Makes perfect sense for a seasoned player like yourself to do that. Nice try, wolfie.

If you're not a wolf, then I'll gladly go up to be hung next. Gladly. I think I have you figured out, hoops.

And you still haven't answered my call on the bet.

[hoopsguy]

Ardent, would you care to comment on your Dubb flip-flop yesterday? How you voted for him initially, but now view him as trusted friend and those who voted against him as wolves? I'm still not sure I understand this ...

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chances are pretty good that if you lynch a wolf (me, in case I'm being too subtle) that the wolves will kill you that night.

I fixed that for you.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Ardent, would you care to comment on your Dubb flip-flop yesterday? How you voted for him initially, but now view him as trusted friend and those who voted against him as wolves? I'm still not sure I understand this ...

Sure, wolfie. My dubb flip flop was based first on the info from barkeep. I still trust barkeep, but dubb asked I review some posts, and I did. Based on that, I decided to change my vote to kingfc. Your vote for dubb kind of confused me, which is why I asked for more info out of you. I really didn't get much, which confused me since you're absolutely teeming with information.

Then I started putting two and two together, and it makes sense. You're putting out all this information because it helps your cause. The WOLF cause.

[Poli]

As far as dubb being a trusted friend. That's not entirely true. He's in the valence shell of the trust. He's just outside. Why?

Because you voted for him.

[kingfc22]

I would love to hear what the others think about all this.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I would love to hear what the others think about all this.

Me too. King, I may be wrong about you. I might be.

I'm absolutely sold on hoopsguy. He's got to be a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Since I don't play Hattrick I'm not sure what I'm getting out of the bet? What is the cash value? I know you have been on the up-and-up the two times I have seen you make the offer before. I'm not betting on you being a villager because I'm still trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here even though you are giving me very little reason to do so. If you are a wolf then I've been pretty wrong for three straight days before now. If you want to wager on me being a wolf then let me know how much money I should collect from you. That bet is on when you say the word.

OOG: I've never liked your introduction of cash betting into the game. It brings out-of-game behavior into play and unduly influences peoples decision-making process.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Since I don't play Hattrick I'm not sure what I'm getting out of the bet? What is the cash value? I know you have been on the up-and-up the two times I have seen you make the offer before. I'm not betting on you being a villager because I'm still trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here even though you are giving me very little reason to do so. If you are a wolf then I've been pretty wrong for three straight days before now. If you want to wager on me being a wolf then let me know how much money I should collect from you. That bet is on when you say the word.

OOG: I've never liked your introduction of cash betting into the game. It brings out-of-game behavior into play and unduly influences peoples decision-making process.

I'm so sold on you being a wolf, it's on.

OOG: I never like cash betting, either, which is why I offered hattrick supporter for blade(I think) the first time I did it. Obviously, you'd have to be a www.hattrick.org player, which I don't think you are. The equivalent is 20 dollars, and in my opinion, definitely proves my honesty. I'm not giving 20 dollars away to anyone.

[hoopsguy]

Post #757 lists my reasons for voting Dubb:

There is some suspicion that Dubb has been spotted, and he finds himself in a toe-to-toe with King. Lots of heat being generated around him at this point, enough that I think this is our best option with the given information.

Dubb, I can meet you halfway on your last post, but at some point if you are weighing between two theories that appear to have equal merit then go with the simplest. Barkeep and RPI slow-rolling you would be pretty damn subtle - not impossible, but less likely than you are a wolf that has had the heat turned up on him in a manner similar to SnDvls yesterday (minus the monster bandwagon).

Post #759 from you:

Hoops,

Can you explain why you think dubb is a wolf over kingfc? I'd like to know you're thoughts on both of them if we have time. I'm willing to change my vote, though I'd need solid convincing.

Post #765 replying to you:

I've got much less info to work with on Kingfc - he has been quiet for spurts in this game, but vocal when called out by Dubb.

Honestly, King would be about 4th on my list right now behind Dubb, RPI, and McSweeny. Obviously subject to change ... was really expecting some late-day revelations (real or invented) that would make this a little easier on all of us.

If Dubb is in fact a villager then we have a growing list of suspects emerging for tomorrow. But I think that is going to be true no matter which person ends up lynched.

You really didn't get much, since I'm teeming with info? I thought I answered the question asked, which was why I voted for one over another.

I really don't think that us arguing here is terribly productive. I know I'm a villager, you are willing to put out money that you are a villager and I have not seen you bluff on this before. Thus, in poker terms, I'll respect your raise rather than re-raising you all-in. But that being the case, I don't think we are helping the VILLAGER cause by going to war here.

[Poli]

Not working. It doesn't add up. You're not a villager. Try as you might, you've got to be a wolf. I think I'm helping the villager cause. I believe you're a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I guess I didn't phrase them as questions but here's what I've got:

1. Why were Raiders and Wednesday so sure about their vote? Everyone else changed their vote at least once, except king and myself. And since we started the voting, early on, for our respective people it follows that we were confident.

2. McSweeny what the heck were you thinking with your vote for yourself? Everyone else, to my knowledge, who has ever done that has been a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Then I guess I'm going to have to count on the other villagers to not follow your lead. However, if you do end up being a wolf I'm going to be pretty annoyed with myself for not calling your Hattrick bluff and collecting twice.

I'm having a tough time working through any arguments right now that don't involve the person gunning for me as being a wolf.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Then I guess I'm going to have to count on the other villagers to not follow your lead. However, if you do end up being a wolf I'm going to be pretty annoyed with myself for not calling your Hattrick bluff and collecting twice.

I'm having a tough time working through any arguments right now that don't involve the person gunning for me as being a wolf.

I'm hoping they do follow my lead. I'm not going to end up a wolf. Anyone else is more than welcome to call my hattrick "bluff" as you call it.

I'm sure you've had a tough time. Being a wolf and trying to defend yourself must be tough.