Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[kingfc22]

I should like to add dubb as my #3 suspect

[st.cronin]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

It's the obvious play... I don't begin to understand how yesterday played out. Mr W and AE were lovers ... but both villagers ... but Mr W revealed himself and AE as lovers? That seems incredibly foolish.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I should like to add dubb as my #3 suspect

Yes, I would suspect me at this point. It seems I was the first and one of the only to pick up Ardents slap you over the freakin head obvious hints that he was the freakin seer. When it became obvious that the hinting ploy wasn't working I came right out and said I believe he was the feakin seer. I would look at the people that didn't catch on. I don't have the time nor the patience to look through the thread right now and figure out who the idiots are, but you can bet money hoops gets lynched today, followed by anyone that voted Ardent and pushed the McSweeney vote when it was obvious with Ardent's reveal one was lieing and one had to be a wolf. If you honestly believe that a wolf would pick up on Ardent's hints and push for other people to see them when people aren't buying it, then you need some practice playing this game.

BTW if I seem extra upset right now its b/c of how freakin stupid the rest of villagers played this combined with the fact that I drove an hour tonight b/c I was told a wal-mart an hour away had 24 XBOX 360's on hand and only 6 people in line. When I got there I was 12th in line waited 2 and a half hours in line and didn't freakin get one b/c of people buying multiple ones in front of me. I'm off to get some sleep.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Mr. Wednesday]

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[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

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Welcome to the club buddy

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[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

When I got there I was 12th in line waited 2 and a half hours in line and didn't freakin get one b/c of people buying multiple ones in front of me. I'm off to get some sleep.

Since this is OOG, I'll pipe up: from what I know, Wal-Mart isn't supposed to be selling multiples to single purchasers. The whole "no dealers" thing. I would go back in, ask to talk to a manager, and try to kick your complaint upstairs. If nothing else, you may be able to get them to guarantee you one from the next shipment if you raise enough of a fuss.

*poof*

[Poli]

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OOG: The Silo makes good pizza. I'm looking forward to it.

[hoopsguy]

Well, it looks like I'm dead today. I have zero idea how I would have appeared as a wolf to Ardent since I am a villager and have not been informed of any kind of savage role that I might hold.

I accept that I'm going to be lynched today and I hope that the villagers are given the opportunity to continue the battle tomorrow to try and win this thing. But I think that is a real longshot if we are still fighting three wolves.

My time online today is going to be pretty limited, similar to yesterday. But I'll try to answer any questions anyone has for me if you are interested in my responses. If not then I'll await the rope early this evening.

The only role that I can remotely speculate that I might have is blessed. That would fit with me not understanding the role, but I don't see how that would make me have thoughts of bloodlust or whatever it was that made me appear to Ardent as a bad guy. And I'm not going to do what I accused AE of doing, manufacturing a role to try and save my skin.

AE, I'll meet you at Silo and I'll go ahead and buy because I feel pretty lousy about how I've played this game. But not because I'm a wolf. You'll see, along with everyone else when I am lynched today, that I'm a villager. I have zero reason to lie about it at this point in the game.

If I had been a wolf I would certainly enjoy pulling an EaglesFan right now and making comments all day about how much fun it has been getting away with my ruse and about what delicacies the dead villagers were.

This is by far the most helpless feeling I've had in any WW game I've participated in. I'm definitely going to talk to Neon about this after the game because I really feel that I should have had some kind of inkling about why I would appear to the seer as a wolf. That way I could produce a worthwhile defense for myself instead of waiting to die today. It really, really feels like the deck was stacked against us this game.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

IMO, I think RPI was the cunning wolf and McSweeny was not. RPI knew he would be viewed as a villager which led him to be very aggressive and even if we did lynch him there would still be a cloud of doubt surrounding his status in the game.

WRONG!!! Re-read Ardent's posts. He made it completely clear that he viewed RPI and he was a villager. He also made it clear that Barkeep is a villager. The only known villagers at this point are Barkeep and St. Cronin. I also think that Hoops piling on me late would help to clear me.

[dubb93]

McSweeny - st.cronin, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49
hoopsguy - ardent enthusiast, dubb93,
ardent enthusiast - hoopsguy, pennywisesb, saldana

Looking at this vote I can say that there is no way all the wolves piled on Ardent. It would make no sense. This is bad news for RA as St. Cronin was the witness, Mr. Wednesday is dead by wolf attack and Barkeep has been cleared by Ardent.

I have no way to read into King's no vote, but his analysis on this day hasn't been good as he's seems to be trying to cause confusion, but I'd be willing to put money on the fact that either pennywise of saldana is a wolf due to the Ardent vote.

Also with the way Hoopsguy is carrying on, I'm guessing he is the cunning wolf and is going to come up as a villager.

[dubb93]

This is the remaining player list and how I see them.

saldana-50/50 chance of being a wolf
st.cronin--witness
kingfc22--no vote, but not really jumping out to me as a wolf at this point
Raiders Army--only living non-cleared vote for McSweeny
hoopsguy--known wolf, most likely cunning
pennywisesb--50/50 shot of being wolf
dubb93--only villager left that voted with Ardent, recognized he was the seer and was piled on by Hoopsguy during day 3
Barkeep49--cleared by Ardent

[dubb93]

As far as after today I say we go with RA tomorrow and then try and hammer out which one is the most likely suspect between King, Saldana, and Pennywise the next day.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I can't argue with your logic except for assuming that I'm the cunning wolf.

If I was any kind of wolf, I would be insisting that I'm a villager. A wolf only tries to survive for another day. He doesn't need the cunning wolf role in the game to say that he is a villager and will hang as a villager. He just needs to get people to not hang him so he doesn't show up as a wolf.

If you make the intuitive leap that I am a villager and the victim of really miserable circumstances (which, I recognize, is asking for a BIG leap of faith) then you don't take it as a lock that I'm the cunning wolf when I'm lynched today. I don't know if McSweeny was or not, but I'm inclined to agree with you that AE looked at RPI and that RPI was not the cunning wolf.

For someone that has time to do it today or tonight, I would recommend going back through Ardent's posts and trying to determine who he viewed besides RPI. Dubb, you seem to think that he cleared Barkeep. Can you cite that post, because I don't recall anything along those lines.

Night 0 - did seer get a peek this night?
Night 1 - viewed RPI after the herbalist hanging
Night 2 - ???
Night 3 - viewed me

[Barkeep49]

On a not anything point I find it interesting that the wolves killed Wednesday instead of Ardent.

Looking forward from today, I don't know. Yesterday was about as good as it gets for the wolves, with a three kill day, including the seer. I've sat here for a while with nothing else typed, waiting for what I should type next. Guess it's time to spend the day going back over the thread with a fine tooth comb. All it takes for the villagers to get back on track is a couple of wolf kills.

For now the easy play is
VOTE HOOPSGUY (I almost did it again with the Caps. Would have felt very stupid making the same mistake twice in a row)

[Barkeep49]

King where do you stand on RPI's being the cunning wolf after all the facts now. You seemed rather sure of this at several points. Does this confidence still hold up if hoops is killed and is seen as a villager?

[Barkeep49]

Dubb: Why have you cleared king but give saldana and penny a 50/50 shot? I think that just makes no sense.

[Poli]

..........

[dubb93]

My circle of trust is evolving. St. Cronin obviously, you (barkeep), and probably dubb, though he's pointing at me incorrectly. Hoops is on the outside looking in, pending his reaction.

I trust barkeep and blade, but they're in my valence circle of trust.

I need no more. He had 3 views, obviously 2 of them are RPI and you, there is no other reason for Barkeep to be in the seers absolute trust role. Keep in mind Ardent was trying to stay under cover so there was no way for him to come out and just say "I scaned Barkeep and he was a villager." so he tried to drive it home incase he was killed we could look back and see Barkeep was in his absolute trust group. Nothing you can say will change my mind and everything you say will be an attempt to cause doubt, afterall you are a wolf that was caught by the seer.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Dubb: Why have you cleared king but give saldana and penny a 50/50 shot? I think that just makes no sense.

I have not cleared King, I said he could be, but I'm pretty sure that atleast 1 other wolf voted with Hoops. That is why I have them at 50/50. Right now for me King is the wildcard. By yesterdays voting patterns it seems to me the wolves would not pile on Ardent, but would try and push him. That indicated RA is a wolf. I also feel that since Ardent never outright came out and claimed seer, atleast one would attempt to push him and save hoops, that is the 50/50 saldana/penny. I have no clue what the hell King is trying to do at this point.

[Poli]

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[dubb93]

Barkeep, if you'd like to continue this conversation you better respond quick b/c I have to get some sleep. I never actually went to bed after my one post saying I was, I actually decided to head off to another wal-mart that didn't open untill 7AM and wait outside for several hours only to find out they gave their employees and their families voucher cards for the only 8 360's they had.

Otherwise we can continue the debate around 1 or 2 when I actually get up for the day.

[dubb93]

Ight, I'm off for sleep. I would really like for St. Cronin and Barkeep to post their thoughts on King/RA/Penny/Saldana/Dubb93(me) so we can kind of pull our thoughts together and I can see where I stand with you guys at this point.

EDIT: Said I was off for the day when I really meant to say I was off to get some sleep. Blame the edit on a lack of sleep

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Barkeep, if you'd like to continue this conversation you better respond quick b/c I have to get some sleep. I never actually went to bed after my one post saying I was, I actually decided to head off to another wal-mart that didn't open untill 7AM and wait outside for several hours only to find out they gave their employees and their families voucher cards for the only 8 360's they had.

Otherwise we can continue the debate around 1 or 2 when I actually get up for the day.

No I've got nothing else for the moment. Sleep well and sorry that you're still 360less!

[hoopsguy]

Post #1168

Nothing you can say will change my mind and everything you say will be an attempt to cause doubt, afterall you are a wolf that was caught by the seer.

I understand, and if I was divorced from the set of facts that I had I would feel the same way. If I was viewing this as a 3rd-party villager I don't know how you vote any other way. A vote for me feels very, very safe since I was busted by the seer.

But if I'm a wolf then why am I not trying to come up with some cover story? I would like to think that I'm a reasonably smart guy and could come up with some kind of plausible excuse. Heck, why wouldn't I have offered one up yesterday when AE came out with his fake role to explain his real role?

If I'm a wolf, then which one am I?
- Brutal wolf, and I'm taking someone with me tonight
- Converted wolf, which will be apparent when you hang me and is best case scenario for the villagers
- Cunning wolf, which will show me hanging as a villager

The explanation that the real wolves will give you tonight is that I'm the cunning wolf. And it will be very convenient to believe that because you will think that you are advancing your ability to win the game. But you will not be; it will bring us closer to a loss. I don't really expect to survive the day, but that doesn't mean I'm throwing in the towel.

If/when I am lynched today I would ask you to pay attention to who pushed against me the hardest and factor that into your decisions tomorrow. I'm hoping that they will have to exert some energy themselves to get me hung, rather than relying on bloodthirsty villagers to do the deed for them.

[hoopsguy]

I'm hoping that they will have to exert some energy themselves to get me hung, rather than relying on bloodthirsty villagers to do the deed for them.

By "they" I mean the wolves - did not want to edit a post, even though I realized my pronouns were unclear as I hit "reply".

[Poli]

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[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

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[SnDvls]

dola-
hey just noticed my name changed cool

[Neon_Chaos]

Enough with the ....'s

[pennywisesb]

Well, that was a terrible day yesterday. At this point RA has jumped way up on my suspicion meter since he's the last remaining voter for Pass as well as Hoops for the obvious reasons.

[pennywisesb]

Looking back on my vote for AE I realize that it was pretty boneheaded. I hadn't picked up on his subtle hints of being the seer, but his little explanation threw me for a loop considering he mentioned it was a "secret role" and Neon hadn't mentioned anything about secret roles. Next time I'll be more careful when analyzing plays like that.

[saldana]

i have to be honest, the thought that AE was the seer did occur to me, but i still thought the fake role reveal was an attempt to throw people off his being a wolf, not off being the seer.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

also, as of yesterday when i posted that i was at work, i had access to the board from my work, computer, 5 minutes later when i refreshed the screen, i was booted off by my companies surf blocker, which means i am out of contact after 315 until 130 in the morning...when i joined the game this was not the case..sorry for letting down the game

[pennywisesb]

I don't think its a good idea to just bandwagon on Hoops today. If he turns out to be what he says, a villager (possibly a blessed/cursed villager), then we are completely screwed here. I'm just so confused. Mr. W wasn't forthcoming with his inside information, and now we lost two villagers because of that coupled with AE's shady role reveal. Damnit.

[pennywisesb]

I think at this point I'm going to VOTE RAIDERS ARMY He even stated in earlier posts that either McSweeny or him is most likely a wolf and McSweeny turned out to be a villager....

[hoopsguy]

Guys, if my lynching is inevitable then I would encourage you to continue working through scenarios for your next action as well.

I wish that someone was posting any kind of argument for voting for me besides "AE was the seer, he said Hoopsguy was a wolf, he is now dead, VOTE HOOPSGUY". I cannot dispute the first three items on the list. But I also am possessed of knowledge that I'm a villager, so there must be something more to the game. I don't know how to prove I'm a villager, short of publishing the PM I received at the start of the game. That is against the rules, so I'm not going to do it, but this is pretty frustrating.

I'm wondering if it is possible for the cunning wolf to assume another role when he is killed? So instead of appearing as a villager, he is able to appear to possess a specific villager role? This doesn't make sense to me, but neither does Ardent seeing me as anything other than a villager.

If you truly think that I'm a wolf then try to extract information from me. You have six hours to try and manipulate me to suit your purposes. I would rather have some kind of a discussion where people think there is some (slight) chance that I'm telling the truth then to systematically write me off. Heck, even if you don't believe me at all maybe I can help draw out another wolf, directly or indirectly.

Obviously losing the seer (assuming that AE was in fact the seer) was a huge blow. But lynching another villager today isn't going to help us win either.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I don't think its a good idea to just bandwagon on Hoops today. If he turns out to be what he says, a villager (possibly a blessed/cursed villager), then we are completely screwed here. I'm just so confused. Mr. W wasn't forthcoming with his inside information, and now we lost two villagers because of that coupled with AE's shady role reveal. Damnit.

here is the other wolf. how can the seer be wrong? have you ever been the seer and seen the info you get? ardent isn't a first time player either, there is no chance he is wrong.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Guys, if my lynching is inevitable then I would encourage you to continue working through scenarios for your next action as well.

I've done all the working through the scenarios that I'm going to do for the day. And I've probably actually said too much already. This reaks of a ploy to help you guys with yur night action and/or kill when you are lynched if you are the brutal.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, it isn't a matter of being a first-time player or an experienced player. It is Neon throwing some kind of wrinkle in the game that isn't explained in the rules. It is short-sighted to say there is no chance he was wrong.

As an example of a seer being wrong, there was the items game where the seer saw someone as a wolf because they possessed a mask. That was clearly stated in the rules, so it was unfortunate for the villagers that the seer was wrong but clearly fair. I don't feel, based on the information that I currently possess, that my railroading here has been fair.

If Penny is a wolf, I don't think he is making a good play here defending me. But I'm glad that someone (wolf or villager) is at least willing to humor me with the idea that I COULD be telling the truth.

OOG: The timestamp issue should be a lot of fun in this thread if people get to posting in it before the deadline tonight. Time to go fight traffic ...

[hoopsguy]

Sure, because a runaway vote without putting any pressure on the wolves really helps ferret them out.

Dubb, even if you don't believe me I don't think that makes sense for a villager. I hold you in high enough regard in this game that I think you would at least try and provide some kind of linkage to a known wolf, rather than shut down for the night and wait for night actions to complete. At this point I have you as my number one suspect - which isn't all that different than where I was at on Night 3, come to think of it.

VOTE DUBB93

And I recognize that this isn't the best way for me to survive tonight, since Raiders already has a vote on him. But I do want to try and help the remaining villagers figure out how to proceed when it becomes clear that I was telling the truth today. The wolves will certainly want you to believe that I was the cunning wolf instead of a villager who has been dealt a really, really lousy hand in this game. Don't let them get away with it.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

King where do you stand on RPI's being the cunning wolf after all the facts now. You seemed rather sure of this at several points. Does this confidence still hold up if hoops is killed and is seen as a villager?

After re-reading the posts that dubb was talking about, I would not be surprised to see Hoops show up as a villager (cunning wolf). That kind of scares me since I would then move RPI to the villager camp and that means we still have 2-3 wolves left.

That would reinforce my suspect list:
1. Hoops
2. RA

After that, I'm really not to sure where to go, but with upcoming night actions and votes hopefully we'll be able to piece it together before it is too late.

[Barkeep49]

Well with the board outages it's seemed like a slow day. I have to confess I've never understood the reasoning behind RA, but that seems like a bridge we'll have a long time to cross, what with our Thansgiving break.

[saldana]

just in case anyone cares, i got the IT admin to open up access for me from work between 730 and 830 et so i wont be missing the votes

that said, Pennywise, what the hell more do you need than the fact that the seer was killing himself yesterday to get us to vote for hoops...how can the seer be wrong?

[Barkeep49]

Ok I have to say today was disappointing. With the board outages it seems like we had a lot of people not vote. I would hope that if any votes come in between now and when Neon starts to total that Neon would count it.

VILLAGERS GET YOUR VOTES IN. With the game coming down to the wire we depend on these things moving forward. We need the evidence.

[McSweeny]

oh if only i wasn't dead

[Barkeep49]

Hmm. Upon further reflection it seems as though we're just missing Raiders. I hope he'll be able to get on soon and cast his vote.

[saldana]

is the deadline 8 or 9 tonight

[hoopsguy]

I believe there is only one vote that is not outstanding at this point - Raiders.

Hoopsguy - saldana, st.cronin, kingfc22, dubb, Barkeep
Dubb - hoopsguy
Raiders Army - pennywisesb
No vote - Raiders Army

I would petition to get an extension because of the board outage, but with this kind of majority on me I don't want to slow the game down for the rest of you. Particularly with Thanksgiving looming. But, I have to admit, a part of me isn't making this move because I'm extremely disappointed with everyone for their play today. It isn't the votes in my direction that bother me, but the complete lack of thought that went into the decision. And the complete lack of effort to try and lure out the wolves on this vote. A runaway vote is the last thing that the villagers should be giving the wolves at this point. Even if you are certain (certainly wrong in this case) that you are bagging a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - one vote that is outstanding. Or one vote that is not in. Bad typing

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And the complete lack of effort to try and lure out the wolves on this vote. A runaway vote is the last thing that the villagers should be giving the wolves at this point.

Finally starting to gloat?

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, Post #1192

how can the seer be wrong?

If I knew the answer to this I would tell you. But as I pointed out earlier it has happened in other games. And it has happened in this game as well. I'm awaiting the answer to this myself. And I think I have the most vested interest of all in this answer.