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Old 11-19-2005, 09:36 AM   #851
Barkeep49
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NEON

Both Pass and saldana have volunteered in this thread to step in.
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Old 11-19-2005, 01:16 PM   #852
hoopsguy
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It has been very, very quiet here today. I'm hoping that Neon receives, and processes, the night actions today so we have some additional time to discuss how to proceed on Monday.
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Old 11-19-2005, 01:51 PM   #853
st.cronin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy
It has been very, very quiet here today. I'm hoping that Neon receives, and processes, the night actions today so we have some additional time to discuss how to proceed on Monday.

shhhhhhhh we're hunting wabbits i mean werewolves
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Old 11-19-2005, 02:02 PM   #854
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin
shhhhhhhh we're hunting wabbits i mean werewolves
Actually right now it's "shhhhhhh we're being hunted by werewolves"
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Old 11-19-2005, 02:13 PM   #855
hoopsguy
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Why don't people run wabbit games, anyways? I'm sure we would have gotten our replacement for SackAttack in no time flat if this were a game of "Wabbit".
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:18 PM   #856
Neon_Chaos
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Alright, since Pass already was part of the game, I'm going to give saldana the role. So, saldana will be replacing SackAttack.

Last night you heard a vicious scream. And then silence. You wake up in the morning and realize that one of you is missing. You look around and start searching for Blade6119... you find his mutilated body beside his house. You rummage through his belongings, and find nothing of note.

Blade6119 has been killed! It is now Day (4), all votes are due on Monday, 8pm EST

Player List: (I knew someone was missing from my player list, but I couldn't figure out who the hell it was... well, until today. )
saldana
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1.
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3
ardent enthusiast
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny
Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2
dubb93
Barkeep49
Blade6119 - Villager, killed Night 3
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:23 PM   #857
McSweeny
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ok so my fears about Blade were unfounded. It's a shame we lost a good member of team villager (even if he did have my high on his list of mis trust)
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:28 PM   #858
Barkeep49
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Not really sure where we go from here.
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:29 PM   #859
st.cronin
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VOTE MCSWEENY

Almost three whole days to discuss.
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:34 PM   #860
McSweeny
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well i hope the seer got a look at a wolf last night. or at the very least i hope the seer was able to clear myself or any of the other targets

king, dubb, and myself were the main targets along with RPI last time around, and i don't think things are going to change this time. it'll be an interesting three days of discussion won't it?
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:37 PM   #861
Barkeep49
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Looks like saldana has been chosen to take over for SackAttack. Welcome to this little house of insanity.
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Old 11-19-2005, 03:51 PM   #862
Poli
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Interesting chain of events. Sorry to lose you, blade. I had reservations after last night's vote, but clearly you just chose the wrong man.

My vote's going to go to kingfc22.
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Old 11-19-2005, 04:46 PM   #863
hoopsguy
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OK, now that the night actions are processed, discussion can ensue.

11 left, 2-3 wolves out there. This is working off an assumption that there were three wolves to start, that there was a cursed taken on night 1, and that the cunning wolf may or may not be in play.

There have been no tandem deaths so lovers are intact.

The seer is still intact.

Worst case - score is 8-3 right now:
We lynch an innocent who is not the seer/lovers and score is 7-3
Wolves hit the lovers, 5-3
We string up another villager, and game is over.

So the game could be over in two turns, but everything would have to break wrong for this to happen. The seer only views villagers, we only lynch villagers, and the wolves hit the lovers. Realistically we have three days to work with and emerging voting patterns to look at.

Blade was a pretty prolific poster, so there is a ton of content to go through in terms of figuring out why he might have been targeted over other candidates last night. Finally, there are strong voting patterns to be evaluated.
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:04 PM   #864
Blade6119
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Wow, the wolfs killed me?? God damnit, i knew trying to play it smart for a game and less like myself would only get me killed...Best of luck to the villagers, hope someone takes the right meaning from my death
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:04 PM   #865
saldana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Looks like saldana has been chosen to take over for SackAttack. Welcome to this little house of insanity.
i am desperately trying to catch up in time for tonights vote, please dont hold it against me if i dont make it...i will jump to the end around quarter of if i am not all the way...someone please post something or pm me if my vote is needed
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:11 PM   #866
hoopsguy
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Saldana, I don't think the next deadline is until Monday night.
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:14 PM   #867
st.cronin
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Somebody should pm saldana ...
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:19 PM   #868
Blade6119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast
Interesting chain of events. Sorry to lose you, blade. I had reservations after last night's vote, but clearly you just chose the wrong man.

My vote's going to go to kingfc22.

......

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Old 11-19-2005, 06:23 PM   #869
hoopsguy
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Time to start re-reading yesterday, see what we can discern. Note that everything in here is subject to my interpretation but I have supplied post numbers so you can go back and look up the posts yourself to remove any bias I'm bringing to the analysis:

I'll do these in blocks of 50 posts, since about half of these are from people who were on hot seat or Blade (now dead, known good guy since wolves killed him).

Post #532 - Dubb brings out McSweeny and King as suspects, casts a vote for King.
Post #533 - RPI falls in line, votes for King. (Note: interpreting RPIs actions is challenging because we don't know if he was a villager or cunning wolf.)
Post #535 - Barkeep lays out a long post for Dub as wolf, votes for him.
Post #536 - Quick unvote by RPI.
Post #537 - Blade has suspect list: RPI (dead, role unknown), McSweeny, Hoops, King, and Dubb. (Note: list appears to be in order of suspicion). Blade doesn't think going after King at this point is optimal.
Post #538 - Blade trying to figure out who was cursed, suspects Hoops, Sack (now Saldana) or Ardent. Notes that AE has supported his posts.
Post #542 - Blade responds to my post, says that I'm still suspect behind RPI and McSweeny. Further evidence that Post #537 did list suspects in order.
Post #545 - Dubb addresses concerns from Barkeep, primarily revolve around "fake" witness
Post #547 - King votes RPI, based on votes to lynch herbalist.
Post #548 - Dubb notes that RPI has played quiet wolf before. (Note: If he was in fact a wolf this time he was anything but quiet as cunning wolf)
Post #550 - Dubb list of suspects: 1. KingFC 2. McSweeny 3. RPI
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:49 PM   #870
saldana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin
Somebody should pm saldana ...
nice...i read 400 odd posts in less than an hour and there is no f@#*ing vote tonight....i think i am gonna go lynch myself...for what its worth, i am up to speed and in the game. sorry to see you go blade, hope i can fill in with some equally insightful comments and help pull this one out for "team wolf-snacks".

based on what i have seen so far, i think we should pick up where we left off with measuring a pine box for Dubb.
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Old 11-19-2005, 06:54 PM   #871
hoopsguy
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Post #551 - RPI votes for King, "reasons are obvious". (Note - weird post if villager, still weird if cunning wolf. People usually want to provide some reasons for the vote in order to help build coalitions).
Post #553 - Blade votes for RPI, based on earlier suspect list and that he is around to defend himself (Note: 13 minutes between post #551 and 553).
Post #554 - RA votes for RPI, says he thinks Blade is a villager and has suspected RPI most of the game.
Post #555 - I post vote totals, comment on Dubb as possible werewolf as bad scenario for me since I have not established good read on him in past WW games. Post my suspect list: King, RPI, and McSweeny. (Note: suspect lists are sounding pretty similar for people who have listed them up to this point).
Post #556 - I post my circle of trust: Cronin, Blade, MrWednesday (Note: I wonder if Blade appearing on multiple circles of trust is why he was targeted last night? It is also fair to note that he is the only person who listed me as a suspect. I discount this because I know my status but everyone else must interpret this information on their own).
Post #557 - I post that I want to look at Day 1 voting to help with today's decision. Next couple of posts by me are on this topic.
Post #562 - Barkeep posts his trust list: Cronin, RPI (too crazy to be wolf), Blade (helpful). (Note: this is strongest show of support for RPI to date, as he is suspicious to most of others).
Post #563 - AE also trusts RPI.
Post #563 - Raiders posts on meta-game strategy of "loose cannon" as wolf.
Post #566 - Cronin votes for RPI. (Note: given Cronin's role as witness there is significantly less risk at taking his votes at face value). Cites that SnDvls (wolf) defended RPI, thinks this only makes sense if he is a wolf.
Post #567 - I discuss RPI, who is starting to collect votes. I then pull info on how early votes were cast on Pass from Day 1.
Post #569 - I pull up every SnDvls post from Day 1, with analysis. (Note - I didn't see much there).
Post #572 - Dubb asks if two wolves - RPI and King - would throw votes at each other. Thinks that no explanation from RPI in #551 was to avoid implicating himself.
Post #573 - King disputes Dubbs point in #572.
Post #575 - King says that wolves definitely wanted Pass dead on Day 1, would push to make this happen. RPI pushed hardest.
Post #577 - Blade calls up Post #351 from RPI. RPI had looked at rules for way that the wolf SnDvls could have been innocent on Day 2. Plus trying to kill herbalist on Day 1.
Post #579 - Blade with disclosure that he did vote for Pass on Day 1, even though final vote did not show this (bad format, not counted by Neon)
Post #584 - Dubb again comments that Witness did not make sense to him; this is not why he thinks RPI is a wolf. More based on "obvious reasons" quote and interplay between him and King. Doesn't want King to succeed in laying low, leaving vote on him to make sure that conversation continues today and into next day if King survives today.
Post #587 - King sick of being called a wolf by Dubb, starting to think that Dubb is a wolf rather than mistaken villager.
Post #589 - King's list of suspects: 1. RPI 2. Dubb
Post #590 - King says that Dubb will make sure that he (King) is alive tomorrow if he is a wolf, since wolf would not kill the person they are trying to build coalition to lynch. (Note: I find that to be a very interesting argument and something I had not really thought of in the context of this game).
Post #593 - Sack drops out.
Post #597 - Dubb keeps up pressure on King, although no new points are raised.
Post #598 - King says that Barkeep and Hoops also are concerned that Dubb is a wolf
Post #599 - Dubb thinks RPI lynching today is done deal, thinks that both RPI and King are wolves. "If we push King and it turns out he's clean, I'm OK with that"
Post #600 - King bolds the above statement, says that this is "funny line"



Overall impressions so far - the list of suspects seems to be very consistent across the players: RPI, King, Dub, McSweeny.

I was initially concerned that King and Dub were two villagers getting into a pissing match. But I'm less convinced of this at this point. A big part of my vote for Dub yesterday was because two different people - Barkeep and King - both were pushing him on different fronts. The RPI arguments appeared to all be based upon the same set of actions (leading the lynch of herbalist, trying to support SnDvls for awhile, suspicion that SnDvls had tried to protect RPI).

Anyways, more posts to come. Going through these again has been a good exercise to re-assess my assumptions from yesterday.
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Old 11-19-2005, 07:10 PM   #872
Raiders Army
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I was away all day today and just got back...catching up now.

I'm glad that the vote is Monday so I didn't miss anything!
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Old 11-19-2005, 08:12 PM   #873
hoopsguy
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Post #601 - Blade laments that his suspect list is not cooperating with him.
Post #602 - Dubb says (Note: correctly) that I had not accussed him of being a wolf, but only said that I have trouble reading him.
Post #603 - Blade warns Dubb about his wording on the "if clean, OK with me" post (Note: I was pretty suspicious of this post at the time but without merit since Blade was killed by the wolves).
Post #604 - Post by RA that refers to a quote from RA, I think responding to Dubb. Hard to follow this one, but I think it ties into King/Dub argument.
Post #607 - King still thinks that Dubb is wolf, but worries that if not the case wolves can run a "setup" play to get three straight kills.
Post #612 - Blade notes that the last four votes on SnDvls are all from his five person list (Note: didn't argue it at the time, but I was out that entire day).
Post #614 - I said I wanted to avoid Dubb/King conflict without further evidence.
Post #619 - I mention that McSweeny is getting off too easy on the day, cast my vote for him. Also note that half the villagers seem to be beyond suspicion up to this point.
Post #622 - Dubb says that McSweeny has lurked in thread without posting.
Post #623 - Blade suggests that Mr W could have been cursed/converted on Night 1.
Post #624 - Blade tells Dubb to stop accusing everyone.
Post #627 - Dubb replies to Blade, says that Blade accuses even more people, and that he (Dubb) forces people to respond by being direct.
Post #629 - AE trusts Hoops, moving into circle of trust. Also doesn't buy RPI as wolf.
Post #634 - Mr W votes for King to counter the RPI bandwagon.
Post #638 - I defend the McSweeny vote.
Post #639 - Barkeep notes that Dubb kept defense of SnDvls up 60 posts after PM posting.
Post #640 - McSweeny arrives, no defense offered but says he will vote for Dubb, King, or RPI.
Post #641 - Dubb replies to Barkeep, notes that a post later that day gave him the clarity he was looking for on SnDvls and witness role discussion.
Post #643 - Raiders lists reasons for voting RPI - actions on both days, editing posts, and trust for people voting for RPI.
Post #646 - Blade comments that Dubb and King appear to be off the hook as RPI has accumulated votes and they have turned down the volume on their bickering.
Post #647 - McSweeny votes for RPI, citing logic from Raiders.
Post #648 - Blade switches vote from RPI to McSweeny. Doesn't like bandwagon.
Post #649 - McSweeny switches vote to McSweeny, helping to build his own bandwagon.

Impressions:
McSweeny has been pretty erratic with his voting up to this point. Doesn't spend time building his own defense. He has been in survival mode two out of three days, with the only exception being the day that SnDvls was outted by the Witness.
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Old 11-19-2005, 08:39 PM   #874
dubb93
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I still firmly believe RPI was the cunning wolf, and going by that logic I'm going to re-evaluate my thinking.

Right now I'm going off the assumption Ardent and Barkeep are both suspect, due to their close ties with RPI yesterday(And it would make sense if they were both wolves to align themselves publically with the cunning wolf, since he will show up as a villager upon death). And the fact that Blade appeared to pick up on it late in the day and ended up dead.

Also we need to take a close look at both Saldana and Pennywise. I'm accusing neither of being a wolf, but I have no read on either one of them. I'm backing off of King for the day unless new evidence is brought forward, simply b/c of how Ardent is pushing for him to be voted out and I'm now VERY suspecious of him. Ardent was VERY flakey yesterday.
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Old 11-19-2005, 10:35 PM   #875
kingfc22
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Hoops, great work with the recap. I agree that the next lynch is huge. I think it is almost time for the seer to play his card (if he has spotted a wolf) since we have so many suspects at this point. Keyword in that sentence is underlined just in case any of you think I'm a wolf looking to trap the seer. The last thing we need to happen is to nearly lynch the lovers and force them to come out in order to save themselves. Sure it would save them from a lynch, but the wolves would be able to eat them during the night.
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Old 11-19-2005, 10:50 PM   #876
hoopsguy
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King, thanks for the kudos. I've still got another page or two to go through, will try and get them done before calling it a night.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:01 PM   #877
Mr. Wednesday
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I didn't see anything remarkable in ardent's play yesterday, but maybe I'm missing something.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:04 PM   #878
st.cronin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingfc22
Hoops, great work with the recap. I agree that the next lynch is huge. I think it is almost time for the seer to play his card (if he has spotted a wolf) since we have so many suspects at this point. Keyword in that sentence is underlined just in case any of you think I'm a wolf looking to trap the seer. The last thing we need to happen is to nearly lynch the lovers and force them to come out in order to save themselves. Sure it would save them from a lynch, but the wolves would be able to eat them during the night.

I think that's lunacy. There are still too many wolves left. My reading of how this works is the seer is for use in end-game strategy or when our backs against the wall. We are at neither point.

I went with McSweeny because he was online when Neon posted the kill, and was the first one to post after the kill. I don't know if that's a wolf move or not.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:16 PM   #879
hoopsguy
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Recaps from posts #651 - 700:

Post #651 - Dubb doesn't trust McSweeny bandwagon if it includes RPI.
Post #653 - McSweeny unvotes himself, votes RPI.
Post #654 - Dubb says that voting for yourself is a bad guy move (Note: it has been the times I have seen it played, although I'm working with a small sample set).
Post #655 - McSweeny asks seer to look at him.
Post #658 - Blade speculates that McSweeny is cunning wolf messing with us or else a villager who doesn't care.
Post #664 - RPI has been away most of the day. He thinks that the seer has posted and is now changing his vote from King to Dubb. He also states he was playing as aggressive villager in order to get viewed and verified as good guy. More to come in 50 minutes ...
Post #667 - Blade surprised at RPI direction, still thinks our wolf is RPI or McSweeny.
Post #672 - McSweeny is out for night, sticking with RPI vote (Note: roughly 2:10 before the deadline).
Post #673 - Dubb suspects that RPI thinks Barkeep is seer. Says he does not think this is case, since Barkeep would have scanned (Note: based on Day 1 vote) and cleared by now.
Post #674 - RPI willing to move his vote to McSweeny to stay alive, looking for the count.
Post #675 - MrW says he can't save RPI alone, not sure how to help.
Posts #677, 678 - MrW and Blade both express willingness to move votes from RPI if there is a reason to do so.
Post #678 - In addition to above, Blade does not think Barkeep is seer, does not think King is a wolf. Likes how Dubb has handled himself over last hour. Is confused.
Post #679 - Cronin thinks it is less than 50/50 that RPI is wolf, but if he is then McSweeny likely is as well.
Post #680 - Ardent votes for Dubb. Still doesn't think RPI is wolf, is wavering between King and Dubb. Asks Dubb to talk him off the vote.
Post #682 - Dubb feels like he is victim of a bandwagon, no good reasons for it forming.
Post #684 - MrW speculates that lack of movement in votes indicates that wolves "are not feeling threatened, which seems a little odd with four people on the block". Now wary of King and Raiders because of this.
Post #685 - Blade sees RPI and Ardent moving in concert. Unlike Cronin, Blade thinks EITHER McSweeny or RPI is a wolf. And if RPI is wolf then so is Ardent.
Post #686 - If RPI = cunning wolf then that explains Ardent following him "B/C when RPI does he shows as a normal villager, and Ardent is all but cleared."
Post #687 - 688 - MrW seems pretty certain that RPI is not a wolf. Says he can make a case for King as wolf, but it would call RPI into question at same time.
Post #689 - Blade thinks that Ardent was converted on night 1.
Post #690 - MrW "RPI, you mean? Interesting thought you had there." (Note - think this was direct reference to Blade post before it).
Post #691 - Blade thinks RPI and SnDvls were original wolves, Ardent was converted.
Post #692 - AE says he trusts Blade "ironically", Barkeep, and Hoops. Vote for Dubb based primarily on Barkeep, not RPI.
Post #693 - MrW says he would be after RA before AE (Note: for conversion by wolves, as spelled out in next post).
Post #695 - AE pulls out Hattrick as proof of vilalger (Note: this has not been a bluff in two previous games I have played with him).
Post #696 - Barkeep "I want to be clear. I am not claiming to be the seer."
Post 697/698 - Blade and AE wavering on votes
Post #699 - Barkeep confident RPI is human, less so with Dubb and McSweeny (Note: both Barkeep and MrW seem pretty sure on RPI as human).


Impressions - I had hoped to find something in Blade's posting that would help me understand why the wolves went after him. I initially figured that he must have generated some heat that they didn't like, but after re-reading he moved around quite a bit on this day.

Started (Post #537) with: RPI, McSweeny, Me, King, Dubb.
Post #691: RPI still on list, but Ardent is now the converted.

And there were other names mentioned in between, mainly in terms of figuring out who would have been converted.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:19 PM   #880
hoopsguy
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Quote:
And it would make sense if they were both wolves to align themselves publically with the cunning wolf, since he will show up as a villager upon death

I disagree with this. If I was playing a wolf I would never want to be tightly coupled with two other wolves. One other one? Sure, just not every turn. Two other wolves? Not a chance.

In short, I would buy this more if you are targeting either Ardent or Barkeep in the cunning wolf/partner scenario.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:20 PM   #881
Blade6119
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........
__________________
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Despair
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Demotivation
Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:21 PM   #882
McSweeny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin
I went with McSweeny because he was online when Neon posted the kill, and was the first one to post after the kill. I don't know if that's a wolf move or not.
fwiw worth, hoops was online and posted 3 minutes after the second kill and dubb posted 1 minute after the first kill. you yourself posted 3 minutes after the first kill
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:22 PM   #883
Mr. Wednesday
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It depends on how much useful info the seer has. The worst case scenario is that the wolves get him tomorrow night without him actually posting what he knows, then we're just completely in the dark.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:24 PM   #884
st.cronin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
fwiw worth, hoops was online and posted 3 minutes after the second kill and dubb posted 1 minute after the first kill. you yourself posted 3 minutes after the first kill

dubb is my second choice at this point.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:26 PM   #885
hoopsguy
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Quote:
My reading of how this works is the seer is for use in end-game strategy

Disagree with this one a bit as well. The seer needs to identify a wolf before they get killed. They fail if they don't deliver this, they succeed if they do. As you get later in the game the dependency on the seer should diminish. There are more votes to evaluate to help flag a wolf. There are more posts to read to help flag a wolf. A wolf has to lie throughout the game and eventually they start to add up.

Of course, a seer can't deliver a wolf if they have picked the wrong people to view.

If a seer can get a wolf lynched without revealing their role that is ideal, but it is also quite hard and almost never happens.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:31 PM   #886
st.cronin
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I just did the math in my head, and I think at this point it would be actually be a better wolf play to pretend to be the seer - that's if it's 8-3 villagers. It may be 9-2 or even possibly 7-4.

So I would not be happy if the seer came out at this point ... it wouldn't mean anything to me.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:34 PM   #887
hoopsguy
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Quote:
I went with McSweeny because he was online when Neon posted the kill, and was the first one to post after the kill. I don't know if that's a wolf move or not.

Depends - if Neon was waiting for a kill order from the wolves and then promptly posted results then it could be. But I'm guessing Neon had the following things to collect:
1.) Wolf order
2.) Seer order
3.) Line up new player

Only after all three were complete could he post results. I know that I was on and off today looking to see if results were in but was not at the time they finally went up. I would be bummed if I had been and then voted for based on that reason.

Don't get me wrong - I think that McSweeny has justified votes based on his track record so far this game. I'm not at all trying to talk you out of your vote. I just worry about this type of logic being applied later in the game when there is a decent chance I will be around to see (and comment on) the results of a lynching or night actions.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:34 PM   #888
kingfc22
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One person that I'm very wary of right now is pennwiseb. He has missed two votes and he is the one utilizing the quiet game the best.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:36 PM   #889
st.cronin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Depends - if Neon was waiting for a kill order from the wolves and then promptly posted results then it could be. But I'm guessing Neon had the following things to collect:
1.) Wolf order
2.) Seer order
3.) Line up new player

Only after all three were complete could he post results. I know that I was on and off today looking to see if results were in but was not at the time they finally went up. I would be bummed if I had been and then voted for based on that reason.

Don't get me wrong - I think that McSweeny has justified votes based on his track record so far this game. I'm not at all trying to talk you out of your vote. I just worry about this type of logic being applied later in the game when there is a decent chance I will be around to see (and comment on) the results of a lynching or night actions.

I realize all that. I liked McSweeny and dubb and was waiting to see who would post first.

I concur about pennywise as well.
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Old 11-19-2005, 11:41 PM   #890
kingfc22
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Mr. W - On day 1 you ended up voting for RPI-fan saying that he was "pushing way to hard" to lynch the herbalist. So what changed on day 3 for you not to vote for him? I'm just curious because his actions on day 1 were the reason I voted for him on day 3.
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Old 11-20-2005, 12:23 AM   #891
hoopsguy
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More Day 3 post recaps: 701-750

Post #701 - AE unvotes Dubb.
Post #703 - Blade "I pray to god he doesnt answer the way rpi think he would" (Note: I read this to suggest that Blade was still pursuing the AE/RPI link from a few threads back).
Post #704 - Cronin changes vote from RPI to Dubb.
Post #705 - Going along with MrW idea of RPI bandwagon.
Post #706 - Dubb tells Cronin this is a mistake, very concerned that people think Barkeep is seer.
Post #709 - RPI not sure how to further defend himself.
Post #711 - Blade wants to make sure RPI dies.
Post #712 - Raiders sticking with RPI vote.
Post #714 - Raiders does not think Dubb is a wolf, but one of Dubb/King is likely a wolf. (Note - seems to imply he thinks King is a wolf).
Post #715 - Blade says if RPI is wolf look to Ardent next. If not, then look at Raiders and him (Note - assume this is request to seer on who to view?)
Post #716 - RPI asks people to "cut me some slack" (Note - interesting approach in a WW game ).
Post #720 - Ardent comes in with vote for King. Starting to believe Dubb.
Post #728 - Dubb changes vote from King to RPI (Note - there was some misconception about deadline, this move took place right at 8PM, one hour before deadline).
Post #729 - Dubb says he had no choice on switch, would have preferred to go with vote for King but votes weren't there.
Post #733 - Dubb offers to switch vote back if someone will vote for King.
Post #739 - Dubb moves vote back to King (and off RPI), says he will move it again if he has to preserve himself. Votes at this level provide another "hour to pool our thoughts with me, King, and RPI all on even footing."
Post #744 - RPI switches vote from Dubb to King, again citing self-preservation.
Post #750 - Dubb suggest that RPI could be cunning wolf, his death would help clear Ardent and Barkeep. (Note: Ardent does not have his vote on Dubb at this point, was switched to King). Dubb notes that Barkeep has not said he is the seer, just hinted at it. "I have a feeling looking back on the bandwagon on me, that this may be the way to go. The only thing I fear, is that if I vote RPI, he turns out to be the cunning and it takes another round to prove or disprove my theory. Anyone find this possible?"


Impressions: Heat really got turned up on Ardent in this block of posts.

Pro-RPI: Barkeep (699), MrW (684, 687)
Anti-RPI: Blade (711), Raiders (643), Dubb (750 most recent)

Note that this does not reflect the overall votes on RPI, but the people who seem to feel strongly that he is, or is not, a wolf. There have been some votes on RPI that express uncertainty.
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Old 11-20-2005, 01:54 AM   #892
dubb93
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Join Date: Nov 2004
As far as the seer speculation, I've seen the seer killed before he could be of use too many times. Right now I'm of the impression that he has been coming up with nothing but villagers. I say that if you have hit a wolf(unless the vote appears to be going his way as we get closer to the deadline), you should come forward(and also reveal the cleared villagers), b/c as the game goes on, the chances of you getting eaten increase. Also, if there is ever a point where you can clear 3-4 villagers, especially as the numbers dwindle, it may be wise to come forward with that information.

It is important that he stay hidden, but if he dies without telling us anything that isn't good either.
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Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 11-20-2005, 06:27 AM   #893
Raiders Army
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
I agree with most of you about the seer. We still have another day or so until the lynch, so a lot can happen until then. Here's what I see:

1. If the seer has viewed a wolf and the lynch looks like it's gonna be the wolf anyhow, remain silent.
2. If the seer has viewed a wolf and the lynch looks like it's gonna not be that wolf, speak up in the late afternoon tomorrow/early evening.

There's also the possibility that the seer is a lover as well. How bad would it be if the seer viewed his mate and found that the mate is a wolf? Then what does the seer do? Hopefully that's not the case.

I also think pennywisesb is playing the quiet game very well at this point...but that's not a particularly strong piece of evidence that he's a wolf.
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Old 11-20-2005, 06:58 AM   #894
Barkeep49
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
People playing the so-called quiet game are always people I'm willing to vote for.

Either
A) They're a wolf trying to be forgotten
or
B) They're a villager not helping the cause

By not giving us anything to judge or link to, they're not only not helping the cause, they're hurting it.
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Old 11-20-2005, 07:05 AM   #895
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BTW, I will be out of the net tomorrow evening because I'm going to Walmart to wait for an Xbox 360.
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Old 11-20-2005, 07:56 AM   #896
saldana
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Bethlehem, Pa
Quote:
Originally Posted by st.cronin
I just did the math in my head, and I think at this point it would be actually be a better wolf play to pretend to be the seer - that's if it's 8-3 villagers. It may be 9-2 or even possibly 7-4.

So I would not be happy if the seer came out at this point ... it wouldn't mean anything to me.


good idea to give the wolves straegy ideas.

we know we are only going to get one real shot with the seer after the herbalist disaster. if he knows anything, it is really hard to be subtle about getting it out there. the best thing we can hope for is the seer to have found a wolf that is lovers with another wolf and we can get 2 with one lynching tommorow night.
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Old 11-20-2005, 08:09 AM   #897
saldana
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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dola, going through the hoops recaps (thanks btw), i really dont like the look of dubb...he was on the block early, and then at the very end of the night moves his vote twice, once off of king, citing self preservation, then when it is clear that king is not getting strung up, moves it back onto him...this to me looks like he wanted to make sure his vote could be used later to set a pattern of "everyone thinks king is a wolf and i voted for him"

i also love the fact that he is trying to turn people onto me when i have only been in the game for a couple hours. neon pm'ed me about sliding in for Sack yesterday evening, and by the time i got all the posts read it was quarter of 8....by 9:15 he is calling me a wolf "because he doesnt have a read on me"....of course you dont have a read on me, i just got here!!
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Old 11-20-2005, 12:23 PM   #898
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
I'm trying to discern a voting pattern here...Red equals dead villager that we know of...Pink equals wolf, green equals an alive known villager. I'm green, since I know I'm a villager.

Passacaglia - RPI-Fan, Raiders Army, Sir Fozzie, McSweeny
McSweeny - dubb93, Barkeep49, Passacaglia
SirFozzie
- SnDvls, st.cronin
RPI-Fan - Mr. Wednesday, Sack Attack (saldana)
ardent enthusiast - hoopsguy
Pennywiseb - ardent enthusiast (note, my vote didn't count because I didn't write it in caps, my bad)

SnDvls - st.cronin, SirFozzie, kingfc22, ardent enthusiast, Blade6119, Barkeep49, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, pennywisesb, McSweeny, dubb93, RPI-Fan, hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - SackAttack (saldana)
st.cronin - SnDvls

kingfc22 - Mr.Wednesday, ardent_enthusiast, dubb93, RPI-Fan
dubb93 - Barkeep49, st. cronin, hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny, Blade6119

--------------

My guess is a wolf is tied to a villager, which may be the reason the wolves haven't had the two lovers killed. It would mean the wolves KNOW who the other lover is and won't attack him. They may even defer votes away from that potential victim so as not to have a wolf die.

From what I see, I think perhaps RA or McSweeny is a wolf. But that's not based on more than looking at who is left from the Pass kill.

I'm also gaining suspicion on, and I hate to say it, hoopsguy. Hoops cast a vote on me the first day, the last vote on Sndvls, and a vote on dubb93 of no consequence at a critical time. My guess would be the wolves would spread their votes out on day 1, perhaps one of them "helping" us along in killing a fellow villager. That fits as Sndvls wasted his vote on the first day. Hoops has provided a lot of information, but that may be to help us think he's a good guy. I may be out in left field with this, but the picture seems to be getting clear for me as I type this. Hoops would also RPI was a villager and that he would be hung. If hoops is a wolf, he'd known the true identity of both dubb93 and kingfc (whom I suspect is a wolf as well). Perhaps he cast that "wasted" vote on dubb93 so he could make sure that kingfc was "safe", and not draw suspicion for piling on to RPI. For example, my suspicion of Blade6119 rose when he cast the last vote on RPI.

I've got to leave for class again now, and will be back on later tonight. Let's talk about this. Is HOOPS a WOLF?

VOTE HOOPSGUY
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Old 11-20-2005, 12:24 PM   #899
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
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Edit: I'll be back later this afternoon. Blade, I hope you're happy with my analysis.
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Old 11-20-2005, 03:11 PM   #900
Barkeep49
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
The color's are great idea, Ardent. Magenta is such a nice effiminate color for those nasty ole wolves .

I think it might be useful at this point to look at not only who ended up voting for who, but how they got there. I'm going to use Central time since that's what I'm on and then I don't have to think as I'm recording time.

This makes for a long post, but I'm hoping it'll be useful. I'm going to study it over and post my conclusions. Green represents known villager (whether dead or alive)

11:29 PM Dubb votes King
Tally
King 1 - Dubb

Vote Order: Dubb

11:31 PM RPI-Fan votes King
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI

11:31 PM Barkeep49 votes Dubb
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49

11:34 PM RPI-Fan unvotes King
Tally
King 1 - Dubb, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI

1:46 AM King votes RPI-FAN
Tally
King 1 - Dubb, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 1 - king

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King

4:13 AM RPI votes King
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 1 - king

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI

4:26 AM Blade votes RPI
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 2 - king, Blade

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade

6:04 AM Raiders votes RPI
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders

11:37 AM st. cronin votes RPI
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin

3:39 PM Hoops votes McSweeny
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin
McSweeny 1 - hoopsguy

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy

4:11 PM Mr. Wednesday votes King
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin
McSweeny 1 - hoopsguy

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday

5:29 PM McSweeny votes RPI-Fan
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 5 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny
McSweeny 1 - hoopsguy

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny

5:30 PM Blade unvotes RPI and votes McSweeny
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade

5:33 PM McSweeny unvotes RPI and votes McSweeny
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny
McSweeny 3 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny

5:35 PM McSweeny unvotes McSweeny and votes RPI
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 1 - Barkeep49
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 3 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny

5:43 PM RPI unvotes King and votes Dubb
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 2 - Barkeep49, RPI
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI

5:57 PM Ardent votes Dubb
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent

6:34 PM Ardent unvotes Dubb
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 2 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent

6:36 PM St.Cronin unvotes RPI votes Dubb
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday
Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin
RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin

6:54 Ardent votes King
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent
Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin
RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin McSweeny, McSweeny
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent

7:00 Dubb unvotes King and votes RPI-Fan
Tally
King 2 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent
Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin
RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny, Dubb
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent, Dubb

7:07 Dubb unvotes RPI and votes King
Tally
King 3 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent, Dubb
Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin
RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny, Dubb
McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent, Dubb, Dubb

7:26 RPI unvotes Dubb and votes King
Tally
King 4 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent, Dubb, RPI

Dubb 2 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin

RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny, Dubb

McSweeny 2 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent, Dubb, Dubb, RPI

7:45 PM Hoops unovtes McSweeny votes Dubb
Tally
King 4 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent, Dubb, RPI

Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin, hoopsguy

RPI 3 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny, Dubb

McSweeny 1 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent, Dubb, Dubb, RPI, Hoops

7:49 PM Blade unvotes McSweeny and votes RPI

Tally
King 4 - Dubb, RPI, RPI, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent, Dubb, RPI

Dubb 3 - Barkeep49, RPI, Ardent, st. cronin, hoopsguy

RPI 4 - king, Blade, Raiders, st.cronin, McSweeny, McSweeny, Dubb, Blade

McSweeny 0 - hoopsguy, Blade, McSweeny

Vote Order: Dubb, RPI, Barkeep49, RPI, King, RPI, Blade, Raiders, st. cronin, hoopsguy, Mr. Wednesday, McSweeny, Blade, McSweeny, McSweeny, RPI, Ardent, Ardent, St. Cronin, Ardent, Dubb, Dubb, RPI, Hoops, Blade

Last edited by Barkeep49 : 11-20-2005 at 03:17 PM. Reason: Had some errors in the chart for King's total votes
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