Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves - Page 17

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I think the most likely scenario is that RPI-Fan is clear. My reason for thinking so:
* Railroading Passacaglia is too bold of a play for a wolf. I especially don't like it for the cunning wolf, as the cunning attribute gives the wolves a shot at discrediting either the witness or the seer.

* He's not a great night 1 target for the wolves. Having just railroaded Passacaglia, he may work out to be a valuable player to leave alive -- one sowing confusion and misguided attacks. A safer target is someone like hoopsguy or Raiders Army, someone respected as an analyst and potentially dangerous as an opponent.

I think my second reason is weaker than the first (leaving cursed as a more viable possibility), mainly because the wolves have a tendency to not kill off the guy that I would choose to kill off if I were a wolf.

I disagree with your logic on point 1, since the wolves didn't use the cunning wolf in a logical way. I'm unclear how the seer could be discredited, since the seer ideally would not reveal his identity.

I don't quite follow point 2.

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Did anyone find the voting activity stuff I posted last night mildly interesting or a factor in their thought process today? It takes quite awhile to collect that stuff and I'm not necessarily inclined to continue using it if people don't consider it useful.

It definitely helped me, quite a bit.

Blade6119 · 11-18-2005, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Did anyone find the voting activity stuff I posted last night mildly interesting or a factor in their thought process today? It takes quite awhile to collect that stuff and I'm not necessarily inclined to continue using it if people don't consider it useful.

yes and no, though i had already re-read the entire thread twice to formulate my own ideas at the time you did that...so i was already pretty set on mine, im sure it helped others

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I disagree with your logic on point 1, since the wolves didn't use the cunning wolf in a logical way. I'm unclear how the seer could be discredited, since the seer ideally would not reveal his identity.

We've been speculating about why they didn't use the cunning wolf in an ideal way to discredit the witness.

As for how the cunning wolf discredits the seer -- it often seems to be the case that subtlety fails and the seer must outright denounce the alleged wolf. The cunning wolf might frame an argument that the seer was a wolf trying to get a villager framed -- sometimes the seer is not believed and is lynched instead of the accused wolf. The cunning wolf would have an additional bullet when this happens -- in appearing to be a villager, the seer might be discredited, sowing doubt and possibly leading to us lynching him.

Quote:

I don't quite follow point 2.

Having played on the other side, I feel like I have a little more insight into the thought process that goes into picking a target. There are a bunch of different things that go into it, one aspect is that you may wish to leave loose cannons alive with the hope that they'll succeed in railroading another villager for you. Another is that you may wish to kill someone who is usually an especially insightful player.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:30 PM

What a frickin mess. I think it was way easier last night when we knew it was one or the other.

At this point, I'm really doubting the RPI vote, but it's too late to change it. I believe I was the first one to state that because he was pushing so hard on Day 1 it was obvious that he was a villager. His actions since then made me change my mind.

I'm pretty sure dubb is on the level. I think I explained that before, and I think there are a few who agree with that.

kingfc22 is the wildcard. I have a lot of doubt in my mind on him.

Now, what are the chances that all three are villagers out of 12 remaining players? I would say that the chances of at least one of them is a wolf are pretty good. It's just which one.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Having played on the other side, I feel like I have a little more insight into the thought process that goes into picking a target. There are a bunch of different things that go into it, one aspect is that you may wish to leave loose cannons alive with the hope that they'll succeed in railroading another villager for you. Another is that you may wish to kill someone who is usually an especially insightful player.

Very true on both points. I would also add that after playing a baddie a few times gives you the insight on what maneuvers they're trying to do...although each game is a little different.

Since it's too late to change votes, should we speculate on the lovers' twist?

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Post #255 - thinks we are heading wrong direction, that Pass and RPI showdown may in fact be two warring villagers
Analysis: He knows if this is the case. Cronin has already made the case that SnDvls could be trying to remove RPI from the fray. Even though the wolves can communicate, I don't expect that every move is in lockstep. People are online at different times and they don't wait to post until getting approval from each and every teammate.

Could be a point in favor of RPI-Fan (as originally clear, at least), as SnDvls may have been attempting to curry favor should we also lynch RPI-Fan. Remember, at that time RPI-Fan was very prominently engaging Pass, so he may very well have looked like a likely lynch target.

Poli · 11-18-2005, 08:34 PM

Where's Neon? I want results! Inquiring minds want to know!

hoopsguy · 11-18-2005, 08:35 PM

Wednesday, I agree with your thought that if RPI is a villager then they would likely have left him around after Day 1 when he went berserk on the herbalist. But I speak from experience when I say that if that person is not lynched the next day then they eventually are able to assume a trusted position. The 'no one would be that stupid' defense starts to gain credibility when combined with rational play on the following days.

As far as the wolf decisions, I've got a number of thoughts on what would have been optimal play but I don't have any desire to post them as we come up on the night actions for them. But I thought yesterday's lynch was a pretty straight-forward call and they went another direction. So far the lynching of the herbalist is the best thing they have going for them.

Assuming that none of people under the microscope today held special roles I think that everyone did a great job of keeping their roles tightly wrapped. Of course, if we are lynching a villager who is also a lover/seer then I'll have to edit my post (j/k) to moan and complain about not saving us from our own stupid mistake.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:35 PM

There are at least two players conjoined and they know it. That could also explain why some players are "protecting" others. The problem is that a villager may be trying to protect his own hide by saving a wolf. I think we need to take this into account.

Would there be any harm in letting the rest of us know who the two lovers are? I would think that the wolves would know if one of them was connected to a villager, so in the reveal it would make it an even playing field.

Poli · 11-18-2005, 08:36 PM

Oh, and hoops, I found your analysis very helpful. Wednesday is in there now as well. I trust barkeep and blade, but they're in my valence circle of trust.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:37 PM

I see no benefit to conjoined villagers revealing themselves -- it gives the wolves a free bonus kill.

Blade6119 · 11-18-2005, 08:38 PM

NOOOO, lovers do not come out...nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I see no benefit to conjoined villagers revealing themselves -- it gives the wolves a free bonus kill.

doh. I didn't think of that.

I guess I was looking at it as a villager/wolf thing instead of a villager/villager thing.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:39 PM

Dola, on the other hand, if one of the conjoined is on the block, I would have to think that it would be revealed -- not because it does anything to clear the player (or the mate), but only because it should affect the math that the voters do in terms of where they cast their vote.

(If that makes any sense at all...)

I'm not as sold on this part, though.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:39 PM

Dola, and I guess they can't come out because we don't know if they're a villager/villager or villager/wolf. Crap.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

doh. I didn't think of that.

I guess I was looking at it as a villager/wolf thing instead of a villager/villager thing.

Well, whether it's one of those really comes down to the luck of Foz's draw.

hoopsguy · 11-18-2005, 08:40 PM

Lovers impact:
1.) Players who are lovers have to be pretty tightly wrapped. Getting into a pissing match with someone that you do not know is a wolf is especially dangerous because you know you will be taking someone else with you if you incite your own lynching.
2.) Wolves would all know if one of their own is a lover, since they can communicate. They would also know which villager to avoid.
3.) Wolves would be incented to 'take a shot' at the lovers rather than collecting a sure kill, in the event that they have identified a role
4.) If a villager is a lover and their lover seems to be skating free and clear along with them they have to worry about their partner as we move towards end game. I'm still kind of thinking through the implications of this one ...

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Dola, on the other hand, if one of the conjoined is on the block, I would have to think that it would be revealed -- not because it does anything to clear the player (or the mate), but only because it should affect the math that the voters do in terms of where they cast their vote.

(If that makes any sense at all...)

I'm not as sold on this part, though.

Makes sense to me. The problem is that it's all after the fact. Hmmmm....let me revisit something.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:43 PM

Basically, a villager/villager pair wants to stay hidden.

If a wolf is part of a pair, the incentive for hiding isn't there (no worries about free wolf meat), but because of the desire of the villager/villager pair to stay hidden, a reveal in itself casts suspicion.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:45 PM

Maybe my analysis of dubb making a play at kingfc wasn't too off:

(assuming 3 wolves)
9-3 villagers right now.
After a villager lynch, it would be 8-3 villagers.
Wolf kill tonight would bring it to 7-3 villagers.
Lynch a villager tomorrow, it would be 6-3 villagers.
Wolf kill would make it 5-3 villagers.

IF the lovers are both villagers, chances are that we will lose another villager in this process, making it 4-3 villagers at the end of tomorrow. That makes it a much closer game there.

I think the only conclusion is that if we fucked up today, we have to be very careful in what happens tomorrow (or the seer needs to come up big), because if we don't, that's pretty much the game.

Raiders Army · 11-18-2005, 08:48 PM

I'm out for the night. See y'all in the morning.

hoopsguy · 11-18-2005, 08:49 PM

Don't forget a cursed, RA. Upon the death of SirFoz I interpreted that to mean that there is one blessed and one cursed remaining. I don't think it takes a particularly liberal interpretation to suggest that there is someone out there who could still be turned by the wolves.

Looks like Sir Fozzie's Night 0 action will go a long way towards determining the winner in this game.

dubb93 · 11-18-2005, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Maybe my analysis of dubb making a play at kingfc wasn't too off:

I'm trying to figure out if this is a good thing or a bad thing for me. What was your analysis of me making a play @ king?

And who is getting lynched? King or RPI?

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 08:53 PM

I used to think I was a pretty smart fellow.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 08:56 PM

I'm pretty sure kingfc22 wound up getting lynched by a single vote (without tiebreakers coming into play).

dubb93 · 11-18-2005, 09:01 PM

KING-Dubb, Mr. Wednesday, Ardent, RPI
DUBB-Barkeep, St. Cronin, hoopsguy
RPI-KingFc, RA, McSweeny, Blade

I just went thought and counted it up as that.

EDIT: Assuming this is the count it comes down to a technicality. I voted King b/f King voted RPI(which would kill RPI), but I later unvoted that vote and re-voted for him(which could kill King). Should be interesting.

pennywisesb · 11-18-2005, 09:11 PM

Damnit. Sorry guys, I missed the vote. I was expecting to get out of the office by about 5:30 and make it home in time, but I didn't end up leaving until 6:45 and at my new office we don't have internet access yet. I have about 5 pages of posts to read through, but it looks like today was quite a day.

Blade6119 · 11-18-2005, 09:13 PM

Im headed out for a date...ill be back either late late tonight or tomorrow afternoon...

pennywisesb · 11-18-2005, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Im headed out for a date...ill be back either late late tonight or tomorrow afternoon...

Hopefully its tomorrow!

Poli · 11-18-2005, 09:26 PM

hitting the hay. Not sure how active I can be tomorrow. I have college and UFC fighting championship on the tube. A bunch of guys from work will be over.

Neon_Chaos · 11-18-2005, 10:47 PM

Sorry for the lateness. I'm putting things on hold until the weekend blows over. Night actions can be sent in during the weekend and I will post everything as soon as I receive them. We resume on Monday, 8PM EST Voting deadline. BTW, can you guys find someone who would want to play in place of SackAttack over the weekend?

Vote Count:
kingfc22 - Mr.Wednesday, ardent_enthusiast, dubb93, RPI-Fan
dubb93 - Barkeep49, st. cronin, hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny, Blade6119

With RPI-Fan having the last first vote cast on him, he is the unfortunate lynchee tonight.

You grab RPI-Fan and accuse him of being a wolf. He says that he certainly is not one. You grab his arms and legs and bind them. You quickly hoist him up, despite his screams for mercy. A noose is tied around his neck. You lift him up... and wait. Nothing. You just killed another villager.

RPI-Fan was a Villager!

Player List:
SackAttack
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1.
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3
ardent enthusiast
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny
Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2
dubb93
Barkeep49

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 10:55 PM

Oops, I didn't read my own count right. And that answers the question about whether revoking a vote alters the tiebreaker, as well. RIP, RPI.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 10:57 PM

Dola, and I was all set to be melancholy about not getting a wolf, but we really don't know that for sure because he could have been the cunning wolf (although I've already posted my own reasons for thinking otherwise).

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 10:57 PM

well pfffffffffffftttt

sorry RPI

hoopsguy · 11-18-2005, 10:58 PM

I'll update the post counts thread tomorrow morning. Since we have a fairly long weekend to digest the info I'm just going to get some rest tonight and come back at this with a fresh outlook tomorrow. Hopefully today's close results give us something more to look at than today's crapshoot.

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 11:04 PM

Since it was a close vote, I will be looking most closely at those who voted FOR RPI-Fan. Although I will keep in mind that it is possible rpi was cunning wolf. Ugh ... you all might be better off if I get eaten, I'm just really no good at this.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Since it was a close vote, I will be looking most closely at those who voted FOR RPI-Fan. Although I will keep in mind that it is possible rpi was cunning wolf. Ugh ... you all might be better off if I get eaten, I'm just really no good at this.

It's not a werewolf game until you try to figure out what the heck is going on and realize you have no f***ing clue.

hoopsguy · 11-18-2005, 11:08 PM

If that is the case then this werewolf game started for me today.

Cronin, you ever read along with a game before playing this one? I remember the first game I read along with I was pretty dialed in. But that was probably the exception to the rule.

st.cronin · 11-18-2005, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If that is the case then this werewolf game started for me today.

Cronin, you ever read along with a game before playing this one? I remember the first game I read along with I was pretty dialed in. But that was probably the exception to the rule.

Nope. I opened one or two threads just to see what it was all about ... but never followed the actual gameplay. I was a werewolf virgin before this game. Although I think I may have played a parlor game with a similiar theme.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-18-2005, 11:52 PM

There was one game (run by Neon) where I knew fairly early on what all of the players were. It was very unusual, though, because there was so much interlinking that very few people were playing completely in the dark. And I still wasn't able to leverage that knowledge into a strategy to win the game.

kingfc22 · 11-19-2005, 12:50 AM

Just got home and I can't believe the amount of activity that went on. Pretty crazy.

McSweeny · 11-19-2005, 01:21 AM

well damn

that was a bit unexpceted. i left tonight figuring that i'd be lynched and i come home to see a neck and neck race between king and rpi and dubb

as i was driving to providence tongiht i had this crazy theory that Blade is a wolf. it's probably just paranoia, but since Blade has been pretty much the villager ring-leader i figure the wolves would want him dead ASAP. i know that if i were a wolf he'd be the first one i'd target. If he doesn't get attacked tonight you have to wonder what the wolves are thinking. doesn't it make sense to take out whomever presents the greatest threat? could he be playing an amazing game as a wolf? could he really have us all fooled?

i dunno, that's just the crazy theory that popped into my head tonight, don't take it for anything more. i'm sure i'll be one of the front-runners for tomorrow's lynching and i doubt this crazy theory will do anything to help that... but we already lost the innocent RPI. we really don't need to lose another innocent

Raiders Army · 11-19-2005, 05:25 AM

Shiznit. Now we're down another villager, albeit somewhat of a loose cannon.

I see this: Blade, McSweeny and I should be the targets today. All three of us voted for Pass and RPI. Well, Blade didn't really vote for Pass, but he would've had his vote been properly formatted.

I know I'm on the level, but it's strange that McSweeny brings up doubts about Blade at this point. I haven't had any doubts due to the way he's "played the game," but now I do. On the flipside, is he bringing this up at this point to deflect attention from himself?

hoopsguy · 11-19-2005, 08:29 AM

Post Count: Night 2 (494 - 519)
Neon 5
Cronin 2
Hoopsguy 6
Ardent 5
SnDvls 3
King 1
Wednesday 2
Sack 1
RPI 1

Barkeep49 · 11-19-2005, 08:30 AM

Well as far as lynching a villager goes that was about as good as it gets. The only thing better would have been to find the cursed.

hoopsguy · 11-19-2005, 08:57 AM

Post #520 - 783 (Day 2 Voting Deadline)
Hoopsguy 24
RPI 11
Dubb 37
Barkeep 15
Neon 2
Foz 1
Ardent 16
Wednesday 45
Blade 60
King 11
Raiders 19
Penny 1
Cronin 14
Sack 1 (leaving game)
JonInGA 1 (OOG)
McSweeny 7

hoopsguy · 11-19-2005, 08:59 AM

We may have lynched the cursed - I don't believe that role is revealed upon death.

Barkeep49 · 11-19-2005, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We may have lynched the cursed - I don't believe that role is revealed upon death.

If that's true that means we might have also lynched the blessed. I guess it wasn't as good as it first sounded.

hoopsguy · 11-19-2005, 09:12 AM

Villager? Or ...

Blessed
Cursed
Cunning Wolf

We really are playing with more incomplete information than normal at this point.

11-18-2005, 08:34 PM	#808
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Where's Neon? I want results! Inquiring minds want to know! __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-18-2005, 08:36 PM	#811
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Oh, and hoops, I found your analysis very helpful. Wednesday is in there now as well. I trust barkeep and blade, but they're in my valence circle of trust. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-18-2005, 08:37 PM	#812
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	I see no benefit to conjoined villagers revealing themselves -- it gives the wolves a free bonus kill. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 08:38 PM	#813
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	NOOOO, lovers do not come out...nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

11-18-2005, 08:39 PM	#815
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Dola, on the other hand, if one of the conjoined is on the block, I would have to think that it would be revealed -- not because it does anything to clear the player (or the mate), but only because it should affect the math that the voters do in terms of where they cast their vote. (If that makes any sense at all...) I'm not as sold on this part, though. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 08:30 PM	#805
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	What a frickin mess. I think it was way easier last night when we knew it was one or the other. At this point, I'm really doubting the RPI vote, but it's too late to change it. I believe I was the first one to state that because he was pushing so hard on Day 1 it was obvious that he was a villager. His actions since then made me change my mind. I'm pretty sure dubb is on the level. I think I explained that before, and I think there are a few who agree with that. kingfc22 is the wildcard. I have a lot of doubt in my mind on him. Now, what are the chances that all three are villagers out of 12 remaining players? I would say that the chances of at least one of them is a wolf are pretty good. It's just which one.

11-18-2005, 08:35 PM	#809
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Wednesday, I agree with your thought that if RPI is a villager then they would likely have left him around after Day 1 when he went berserk on the herbalist. But I speak from experience when I say that if that person is not lynched the next day then they eventually are able to assume a trusted position. The 'no one would be that stupid' defense starts to gain credibility when combined with rational play on the following days. As far as the wolf decisions, I've got a number of thoughts on what would have been optimal play but I don't have any desire to post them as we come up on the night actions for them. But I thought yesterday's lynch was a pretty straight-forward call and they went another direction. So far the lynching of the herbalist is the best thing they have going for them. Assuming that none of people under the microscope today held special roles I think that everyone did a great job of keeping their roles tightly wrapped. Of course, if we are lynching a villager who is also a lover/seer then I'll have to edit my post (j/k) to moan and complain about not saving us from our own stupid mistake.

11-18-2005, 08:35 PM	#810
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	There are at least two players conjoined and they know it. That could also explain why some players are "protecting" others. The problem is that a villager may be trying to protect his own hide by saving a wolf. I think we need to take this into account. Would there be any harm in letting the rest of us know who the two lovers are? I would think that the wolves would know if one of them was connected to a villager, so in the reveal it would make it an even playing field.

11-18-2005, 08:39 PM	#816
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	Dola, and I guess they can't come out because we don't know if they're a villager/villager or villager/wolf. Crap.

11-18-2005, 08:40 PM	#818
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Lovers impact: 1.) Players who are lovers have to be pretty tightly wrapped. Getting into a pissing match with someone that you do not know is a wolf is especially dangerous because you know you will be taking someone else with you if you incite your own lynching. 2.) Wolves would all know if one of their own is a lover, since they can communicate. They would also know which villager to avoid. 3.) Wolves would be incented to 'take a shot' at the lovers rather than collecting a sure kill, in the event that they have identified a role 4.) If a villager is a lover and their lover seems to be skating free and clear along with them they have to worry about their partner as we move towards end game. I'm still kind of thinking through the implications of this one ...

11-18-2005, 08:43 PM	#820
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Basically, a villager/villager pair wants to stay hidden. If a wolf is part of a pair, the incentive for hiding isn't there (no worries about free wolf meat), but because of the desire of the villager/villager pair to stay hidden, a reveal in itself casts suspicion. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 08:45 PM	#821
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	Maybe my analysis of dubb making a play at kingfc wasn't too off: (assuming 3 wolves) 9-3 villagers right now. After a villager lynch, it would be 8-3 villagers. Wolf kill tonight would bring it to 7-3 villagers. Lynch a villager tomorrow, it would be 6-3 villagers. Wolf kill would make it 5-3 villagers. IF the lovers are both villagers, chances are that we will lose another villager in this process, making it 4-3 villagers at the end of tomorrow. That makes it a much closer game there. I think the only conclusion is that if we fucked up today, we have to be very careful in what happens tomorrow (or the seer needs to come up big), because if we don't, that's pretty much the game.

11-18-2005, 08:48 PM	#822
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	I'm out for the night. See y'all in the morning.

11-18-2005, 08:49 PM	#823
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Don't forget a cursed, RA. Upon the death of SirFoz I interpreted that to mean that there is one blessed and one cursed remaining. I don't think it takes a particularly liberal interpretation to suggest that there is someone out there who could still be turned by the wolves. Looks like Sir Fozzie's Night 0 action will go a long way towards determining the winner in this game.

11-18-2005, 08:53 PM	#825
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I used to think I was a pretty smart fellow.

11-18-2005, 08:56 PM	#826
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	I'm pretty sure kingfc22 wound up getting lynched by a single vote (without tiebreakers coming into play). __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 09:11 PM	#828
pennywisesb College Benchwarmer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Los Angeles, California	Damnit. Sorry guys, I missed the vote. I was expecting to get out of the office by about 5:30 and make it home in time, but I didn't end up leaving until 6:45 and at my new office we don't have internet access yet. I have about 5 pages of posts to read through, but it looks like today was quite a day. __________________ Myspace Profile

11-18-2005, 09:13 PM	#829
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	Im headed out for a date...ill be back either late late tonight or tomorrow afternoon... __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

11-18-2005, 09:26 PM	#831
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	hitting the hay. Not sure how active I can be tomorrow. I have college and UFC fighting championship on the tube. A bunch of guys from work will be over. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-18-2005, 10:47 PM	#832
Neon_Chaos Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Parañaque, Philippines	Sorry for the lateness. I'm putting things on hold until the weekend blows over. Night actions can be sent in during the weekend and I will post everything as soon as I receive them. We resume on Monday, 8PM EST Voting deadline. BTW, can you guys find someone who would want to play in place of SackAttack over the weekend? Vote Count: kingfc22 - Mr.Wednesday, ardent_enthusiast, dubb93, RPI-Fan dubb93 - Barkeep49, st. cronin, hoopsguy RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny, Blade6119 With RPI-Fan having the last first vote cast on him, he is the unfortunate lynchee tonight. You grab RPI-Fan and accuse him of being a wolf. He says that he certainly is not one. You grab his arms and legs and bind them. You quickly hoist him up, despite his screams for mercy. A noose is tied around his neck. You lift him up... and wait. Nothing. You just killed another villager. RPI-Fan was a Villager! Player List: SackAttack st.cronin kingfc22 Raiders Army Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1. hoopsguy RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3 ardent enthusiast pennywisesb SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2 McSweeny Mr. Wednesday SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2 dubb93 Barkeep49 __________________ Come and see.

11-18-2005, 10:55 PM	#833
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Oops, I didn't read my own count right. And that answers the question about whether revoking a vote alters the tiebreaker, as well. RIP, RPI. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 10:57 PM	#834
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Dola, and I was all set to be melancholy about not getting a wolf, but we really don't know that for sure because he could have been the cunning wolf (although I've already posted my own reasons for thinking otherwise). __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-18-2005, 10:57 PM	#835
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	well pfffffffffffftttt sorry RPI

11-18-2005, 10:58 PM	#836
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'll update the post counts thread tomorrow morning. Since we have a fairly long weekend to digest the info I'm just going to get some rest tonight and come back at this with a fresh outlook tomorrow. Hopefully today's close results give us something more to look at than today's crapshoot.

11-18-2005, 11:04 PM	#837
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Since it was a close vote, I will be looking most closely at those who voted FOR RPI-Fan. Although I will keep in mind that it is possible rpi was cunning wolf. Ugh ... you all might be better off if I get eaten, I'm just really no good at this.

11-18-2005, 11:08 PM	#839
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	If that is the case then this werewolf game started for me today. Cronin, you ever read along with a game before playing this one? I remember the first game I read along with I was pretty dialed in. But that was probably the exception to the rule.

11-18-2005, 11:52 PM	#841
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	There was one game (run by Neon) where I knew fairly early on what all of the players were. It was very unusual, though, because there was so much interlinking that very few people were playing completely in the dark. And I still wasn't able to leverage that knowledge into a strategy to win the game. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-19-2005, 12:50 AM	#842
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Just got home and I can't believe the amount of activity that went on. Pretty crazy. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-19-2005, 01:21 AM	#843
McSweeny College Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Somerville, MA	well damn that was a bit unexpceted. i left tonight figuring that i'd be lynched and i come home to see a neck and neck race between king and rpi and dubb as i was driving to providence tongiht i had this crazy theory that Blade is a wolf. it's probably just paranoia, but since Blade has been pretty much the villager ring-leader i figure the wolves would want him dead ASAP. i know that if i were a wolf he'd be the first one i'd target. If he doesn't get attacked tonight you have to wonder what the wolves are thinking. doesn't it make sense to take out whomever presents the greatest threat? could he be playing an amazing game as a wolf? could he really have us all fooled? i dunno, that's just the crazy theory that popped into my head tonight, don't take it for anything more. i'm sure i'll be one of the front-runners for tomorrow's lynching and i doubt this crazy theory will do anything to help that... but we already lost the innocent RPI. we really don't need to lose another innocent

11-19-2005, 05:25 AM	#844
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	Shiznit. Now we're down another villager, albeit somewhat of a loose cannon. I see this: Blade, McSweeny and I should be the targets today. All three of us voted for Pass and RPI. Well, Blade didn't really vote for Pass, but he would've had his vote been properly formatted. I know I'm on the level, but it's strange that McSweeny brings up doubts about Blade at this point. I haven't had any doubts due to the way he's "played the game," but now I do. On the flipside, is he bringing this up at this point to deflect attention from himself?

11-19-2005, 08:29 AM	#845
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Post Count: Night 2 (494 - 519) Neon 5 Cronin 2 Hoopsguy 6 Ardent 5 SnDvls 3 King 1 Wednesday 2 Sack 1 RPI 1

11-19-2005, 08:30 AM	#846
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Well as far as lynching a villager goes that was about as good as it gets. The only thing better would have been to find the cursed.

11-19-2005, 08:57 AM	#847
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Post #520 - 783 (Day 2 Voting Deadline) Hoopsguy 24 RPI 11 Dubb 37 Barkeep 15 Neon 2 Foz 1 Ardent 16 Wednesday 45 Blade 60 King 11 Raiders 19 Penny 1 Cronin 14 Sack 1 (leaving game) JonInGA 1 (OOG) McSweeny 7

11-19-2005, 08:59 AM	#848
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	We may have lynched the cursed - I don't believe that role is revealed upon death.

11-19-2005, 09:12 AM	#850
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Villager? Or ... Blessed Cursed Cunning Wolf We really are playing with more incomplete information than normal at this point.