WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So which wolf are you exactly then hoops?

You had your chance to clear this up last night.

If you are good, and we are on the same team, then we probably are going to need some kind of a trust building exercise together after the last two games.

[Danny]

Vote Telle

I may change this, but I think no matter who is telling the truth, she is a wolf.

[Danny]

I think then we nominate Lathum for being believed. Then I can kill one of Dubb/Lathum with the night kill. If I am right, great. If not then we lynch the other the next day

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think then we nominate Lathum for being believed. Then I can kill one of Dubb/Lathum with the night kill. If I am right, great. If not then we lynch the other the next day

So let me get this right. You keep me around because you believe I am good and want my scans yet when I scan a wolf you want to vote elsewhere? Had PB not scanned you last night you would be on my list right behind Lathum and Hoops.

[Danny]

Yes because I felt it highly unlikely a duke not be included in the game. But, this very well could be an end game scenario here from you as you did push for Saldana to get the maniac role and if there are five wolves that is what we were looking at.

[Lathum]

Dubb must be playing some end game scenerio or something.

I am the other seer. I scanned Hoops N1 and he came up good, I scanned CR N2 and he also came up good. I scanned Racer N3 and he came back wolf.

My guess is it is 6-5 and they are trying to get an uncleared villager with a history as a wolf lynched.

I mean ask yourselves why they waited until now to claim I was scanned.

VOTE RACER

[Danny]

If we lynch Telle and she turns up good and the game is not over, that means Dubb is good as he only makes this move here if it is end game. I find this very likely, if there are 5 wolves in the game, I am sure Telle is one of them.

If she turns up wolf, then we can take out you or Lathum and then if I am right, great and the other is cleared. If wrong, then we lynch the other one.

[Tyrith]

Dubb revealing duke the way he did makes zero sense unless he plans on getting in a duke on duke reveal fight day 1. The wolves wouldn't know if the role wasn't it in the game. That seems beyond dodgy...and if you're going to do that, why not reveal seer and get value for it?

It seems to me that the dubb = bad line of thought is paranoid. I blame hoops. If dubb hadn't caught a wolf last night I know exactly where my vote would be right now.

[Danny]

Lathum, while obviously you or Dubb is bad, it is possible you are the false seer and Racer isn't actually a wolf. Why would you not vote Dubb? Especially since Racer is the other person here who believes Dubb is bad.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

If we lynch Telle and she turns up good and the game is not over.

Are you seriously willing to run that risk?

I am telling you, Racer is a wolf. Lynch me or another villager and it is probably game over.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Dubb revealing duke the way he did makes zero sense unless he plans on getting in a duke on duke reveal fight day 1. The wolves wouldn't know if the role wasn't it in the game.

It's in the rules, the wolves will know one role that is not in the game, it's possible it could have been duke. Not saying that is the case, but it's possible.

[Tyrith]

From the newbie help thread...whichever seer comes out accusing first is a villager 90% of the time. And I trust the insight of the person who said it :P

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Are you seriously willing to run that risk?

I am telling you, Racer is a wolf. Lynch me or another villager and it is probably game over.

Yes I am, if there are five wolves in the game, I am sure she is one of them.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Are you seriously willing to run that risk?

I am telling you, Racer is a wolf. Lynch me or another villager and it is probably game over.

If you are good, you may be the false seer and Racer not a wolf.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Danny

It's in the rules, the wolves will know one role that is not in the game, it's possible it could have been duke. Not saying that is the case, but it's possible.

That does change things...a fair bit. Gah, how come this hasn't come up before?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

That does change things...a fair bit. Gah, how come this hasn't come up before?

It has been, but there's a reason why I felt it highly highly unlikely the duke was not in the game, but now I am not as sure. I am not voting Dubb for sure, but that doesn't mean I will go with him 100% today either.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Lathum, while obviously you or Dubb is bad, it is possible you are the false seer and Racer isn't actually a wolf. Why would you not vote Dubb? Especially since Racer is the other person here who believes Dubb is bad.

I trust my scans so I am going that way, you seem hellbent to vote on people who are unscanned and unknown, like Telle, when that could cost us the game.

I think the best course of action is lynch Racer, then you can take out Dubb tonight and we get 2 wolves. If it makes you feel better I can claim vanilla villager and if Racer comes up good you can kill me tonight.

[dubb93]

Lathum is not the fucking seer. He is a wolf.

[saldana]

well since dubb cleared me, and i know that scan is correct, i am going to go with him in the dueling seer game

vote lathum

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

well since dubb cleared me, and i know that scan is correct, i am going to go with him in the dueling seer game

vote lathum

unless he is a wolf and knows you are good

[Danny]

I would like to see you claim vanilla villager yes. The problem is you or Dubb has to be a wolf, why would you not vote Dubb? You voted for the one other person in the game who trusts Dubb the least which could be trouble for you.

You also believe I am good and we know CR is, why would it be any more likely you are the seer as opposed to PB?

At this point it's likely the wolves were either told that the false seer or the duke was not in the game. I still find it more likely that was the false seer and that the duke is in the game.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

unless he is a wolf and knows you are good

No chance, Dubb supported Saldana being maniac and push for it. He doesn't give a random villager that ability with such a large chance at hitting a wolf. If Dubb is bad, I am sure Saldana is too.

The more I think about it, the more I am going back with Dubb

[Tyrith]

In my mind, there are only two real scenarios in play. One is that hoops and Lathum are both bad, and they have been doing everything they can to stop us from believing our one rock solid data source, in dubb. In this case Racer is almost certainly bad - hoops late vote and Lathum saying he's bad reconcile in this scenario. The rest of the wolves would be in the UTRs.

The other is that dubb is bad, and I'm willing to accept that we lose in that case. To be quite frank, either Lathum/hoops or dubb is playing us at this point, and dubb tried harder (and had the time to try harder) this game. If dubb is bad, Racer is probably still bad, and the rest of the wolves are hiding in the UTRs. This pretty much means all the UTRs are bad.

Dubb's explanation of the tie breaking mechanism makes sense to me - the role description just says breaks ties, not his vote breaks a tie.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

The more I think about it, the more I am going back with Dubb

Meaning supporting him, not voting for him.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

In my mind, there are only two real scenarios in play. One is that hoops and Lathum are both bad, and they have been doing everything they can to stop us from believing our one rock solid data source, in dubb. In this case Racer is almost certainly bad - hoops late vote and Lathum saying he's bad reconcile in this scenario. The rest of the wolves would be in the UTRs.

The other is that dubb is bad, and I'm willing to accept that we lose in that case. To be quite frank, either Lathum/hoops or dubb is playing us at this point, and dubb tried harder (and had the time to try harder) this game. If dubb is bad, Racer is probably still bad, and the rest of the wolves are hiding in the UTRs. This pretty much means all the UTRs are bad.

Dubb's explanation of the tie breaking mechanism makes sense to me - the role description just says breaks ties, not his vote breaks a tie.

I agree, I still think Dubb is good as I have all game. I've been his biggest supporter overall and in the end I will likely vote on that. But you still have that paranoia in there.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I still find it more likely that was the false seer and that the duke is in the game.

you think Dubb was the Duke from the start, is that what you mean?

And I already explained. Lynch Racer today and you kill Dubb tonight.

[dubb93]

I think at this point you have to ask yourself why Lathum would have scanned CR night 2 if he was the seer. PB revealed he scanned CR on night 1 and he was villager.

If Lathum hits on CR as a wolf what exactly does that prove? It surely doesn't prove CR is a wolf, it simply proves that either Lathum or PB is the false seer.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Meaning supporting him, not voting for him.

then vote me if you wanna lose the game, you want to win or keep things going vote Racer.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I think at this point you have to ask yourself why Lathum would have scanned CR night 2 if he was the seer. PB revealed he scanned CR on night 1 and he was villager.

If Lathum hits on CR as a wolf what exactly does that prove? It surely doesn't prove CR is a wolf, it simply proves that either Lathum or PB is the false seer.

and you see no value in that?

[Danny]

Yes. You claimed seer, Dubb claimed Duke. Since one of you is a wolf, this means either the duke or the false seer was not in the game and that the wolves were told that.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and you see no value in that?

No I don't.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

No I don't.

Well then I'll explain it to you really simply.

If we 100% know someone if the real seer then we can 100% trust their scans

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yes. You claimed seer, Dubb claimed Duke. Since one of you is a wolf, this means either the duke or the false seer was not in the game and that the wolves were told that.

I don't think it is this simple. There is also a chance that every role is in fact in the game and that Lathum is making this move to out the other seer. According to the rules if the wolves manage to kill the seer they will eliminate all the seer roles from the game. If Lathum flushes the other seer out while he is going down anyway then they have a 50/50 shot tonight of hitting the correct seer.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well then I'll explain it to you really simply.

If we 100% know someone if the real seer then we can 100% trust their scans

OK, but if PB says that CR is a villager and you say he is a wolf what does that accomplish? All we know at that point is that one of you is the false seer. Nice try here Lathum, but I caught you and you slipped up on your fake reveal.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I don't think it is this simple. There is also a chance that every role is in fact in the game and that Lathum is making this move to out the other seer. According to the rules if the wolves manage to kill the seer they will eliminate all the seer roles from the game. If Lathum flushes the other seer out while he is going down anyway then they have a 50/50 shot tonight of hitting the correct seer.

I'm not going to say much on this, but I am positive that not all roles are in the game. My above scenario is almost certainly the case. And since seer and false seer are different roles, I am pretty sure killing one does not eliminate both.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Dubb revealing duke the way he did makes zero sense unless he plans on getting in a duke on duke reveal fight day 1. The wolves wouldn't know if the role wasn't it in the game. That seems beyond dodgy...and if you're going to do that, why not reveal seer and get value for it?

It seems to me that the dubb = bad line of thought is paranoid. I blame hoops. If dubb hadn't caught a wolf last night I know exactly where my vote would be right now.

According to the rules, the wolves know any roles that aren't in the game.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm not going to say much on this, but I am positive that not all roles are in the game. My above scenario is almost certainly the case. And since seer and false seer are different roles, I am pretty sure killing one does not eliminate both.

Maybe not but I think it goes without saying that if someone gets killed and shows up as seer that the false seer is pretty much worthless at that point. Also the seer role would not be able to be claimed at that point and the believed seer would lose his powers.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

According to the rules, the wolves know any roles that aren't in the game.

I think it means the wolves will know one role not in the game, not all roles that are not in the game (if there is more than one).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Maybe not but I think it goes without saying that if someone gets killed and shows up as seer that the false seer is pretty much worthless at that point. Also the seer role would not be able to be claimed at that point and the believed seer would lose his powers.

This is true. But assuming one of the two of you are claiming a role not in the game, false seer makes more sense to not have been included and give the wolves a possible fake reveal.

[Danny]

I think giving a cunning wolf the opportunity to claim duke would have been too much. Especially in this case when it gave you trust to gain the believed seer. A false seer claim makes sense as if they lie about a scan they will be caught.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK, but if PB says that CR is a villager and you say he is a wolf what does that accomplish? All we know at that point is that one of you is the false seer. Nice try here Lathum, but I caught you and you slipped up on your fake reveal.

are you intentionally being thick?

Then once CR is killed we can go back and review the 2 seers scans.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

I would like to see you claim vanilla villager yes. The problem is you or Dubb has to be a wolf, why would you not vote Dubb? You voted for the one other person in the game who trusts Dubb the least which could be trouble for you.

You also believe I am good and we know CR is, why would it be any more likely you are the seer as opposed to PB?

At this point it's likely the wolves were either told that the false seer or the duke was not in the game. I still find it more likely that was the false seer and that the duke is in the game.

I'm going to go out on a hunch and say that there is a good chance Barkeep picked a couple of different roles that would definitely be in the game (seer and bodyguard) and then chose how many other villager roles would be in the game and used random.org to determine what those would be.

I also don't understand why people think I am a wolf. I waited until the last minute to tie the vote to test to see if Dubb is really the Duke. Considering I'm still alive at this point, I don't know why people still seem to trust him (especially trust him more then me).

Also, either Lathum is the fake seer or he's a wolf since I "turned" up a wolf according to him.

I am willing to vote for Hoopsguy, Dubb, or Lathum at this point. I think Schmidty is probably a wolf, but not quite as likely as those three.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

What was NTN?

They were both V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R.S.

[Danny]

Building off of what posted earlier (not that I trust him, in my mind these are the possible wolf combos.

Dubb, Hoops, Saldana, Telle, USFL, Schmidty, Racer
Lathum, Hoops, Telle, USFL, Schmidty, Racer

Which of these is more likely to have four or five wolves in it.

[hoopsguy]

Today is going to be really messy.

PB + Danny - I really wish that there had been some way to coordinate the scan on Dubb before now.

Also, I've noticed quite a few people making their way in and out of the thread over the past few hours without be willing to make the "vanilla villager" claim that I did. I thought that the wolves would probably play ball with it, but so far that has not been the case. Well, to be fair no unbelieved people (villager or wolf) have made the claim besides me.

It is all well and good to line me up for the kill shot, but I'm pretty sure the plan was not "Hoops, will you volunteer to be the vanilla wolf while everyone else sits on the sideline?"

[Danny]

I really wish Saldana had killed Hoops instead of NTN that would have told us more depending on the result.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Today is going to be really messy.

PB + Danny - I really wish that there had been some way to coordinate the scan on Dubb before now.

Frankly, I think if Dubb is a wolf, he is the cunning.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Today is going to be really messy.

PB + Danny - I really wish that there had been some way to coordinate the scan on Dubb before now.

Also, I've noticed quite a few people making their way in and out of the thread over the past few hours without be willing to make the "vanilla villager" claim that I did. I thought that the wolves would probably play ball with it, but so far that has not been the case. Well, to be fair no unbelieved people (villager or wolf) have made the claim besides me.

It is all well and good to line me up for the kill shot, but I'm pretty sure the plan was not "Hoops, will you volunteer to be the vanilla wolf while everyone else sits on the sideline?"

Well, to be fair, we were about ready to hold the gun to your head anyway. And the UTRs haven't been talking today.

[Danny]

Getting the cunning along with an unchallenged duke claim would be really powerful.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

They were both V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R.S.

Specifically vanilla villagers