WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[Danny]

Unvote Telle

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I really wish Saldana had killed Hoops instead of NTN that would have told us more depending on the result.

About 70% of me feels the same way.

There are some days where you relish the battle more than others. I've got a pretty lousy villager hand at the moment while NTN would have been at least considered a neutral voice if/when he posted.

When I'm a wolf I can't find a way to make it into Day 3 without a scan. But lately I can't pick up a scan as a villager either - or at least have the seer publish the result and afford me some trust.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'll be curious to see how the orders are processed. I would assume that yours would go first. In fact, as a placeholder, submit an order to kill the believed vanilla wolf if BK will accept it in case he does it based on time.

I haven't revealed the order of the night action but I will reveal that it is a fixed order based on role. It is not time sensitive.

[Danny]

Dubb, Hoops, Saldana, Telle, USFL, Schmidty
Lathum, Hoops, Telle, USFL, Schmidty, Racer

Working from this list, it probably is unlikely Racer and Dubb would both be wolves which would make each list six names long.

I still lean towards truting Dubb, but everything does potentially add up to an end game scenario with just now finding a wolf, pushing Saldana for maniac, etc...

[Danny]

Barkeep, give us the name of one wolf

[hoopsguy]

Danny, if you think that Dubb is bad then pull me off that first list and vote at will. Fish in a barrel.

[Danny]

If I pulled you off that list, it would leave 5 people for 5 spots. And I still feel USFL is likely not a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, that is my point exactly. 5 people for 5 spots = every vote is good.

Obviously you and I are working with different information today. But for me the only thing I'm considering is Dubb's guilt/innocence. If I get that right I pretty much can't miss on my vote if there are 5 wolves.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

If I pulled you off that list, it would leave 5 people for 5 spots. And I still feel USFL is likely not a wolf.

Eh, considering he's been a-wall this game and we've been getting our butts handed to us, you're probably right.

[Danny]

Vote Lathum

If Dubb ends up being bad, he played a great game.

[Lathum]

Jesus Danny, how's it feel to get played?

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, until some other people step up there isn't a chance in hell I make you the vanilla wolf.

As for the rest of this, I'll sit tight.

Lathum, how does BK express to you a person's allegiance in his PMs, as it has been fairly unique and BK-esque.

[PurdueBrad]

Let me clarify Lathum, I'm not looking for a quotation, just what makes his PMs, at least regarding good guys (since I haven't seen a bad guy one yet), unique.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Lathum, how does BK express to you a person's allegiance in his PMs, as it has been fairly unique and BK-esque.

I'm sorry but that is to meta-gamey for me.

If it gets me killed so be it but I'm not answering that.

[PurdueBrad]

So we're basically left with the idea that dubb played a phenomenal game (very possible) or that Lathum is trying to squirm out of being lynched.

Let me ask this instead. Lathum, why didn't you mention your scan either of the two times you dropped in before since it was a wolf?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm sorry but that is to meta-gamey for me.

If it gets me killed so be it but I'm not answering that.

And that's fine because he doesn't do anything special anyway, just trying to gauge your response.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So we're basically left with the idea that dubb played a phenomenal game (very possible) or that Lathum is trying to squirm out of being lynched.

Let me ask this instead. Lathum, why didn't you mention your scan either of the two times you dropped in before since it was a wolf?

I needed to catch up with the thread.

I'm not going to run in and post all willy nilly without reading up to date. Also, remember I am on the west coast and am checking email, making breakfast, etc... and doing other stuff.

I wanted to wait until I had enough time to answer questions.

[Lathum]

and by other stuff I mean Mrs. Lathum

[PurdueBrad]

Thanks Lathum, appreciate the answers. I'll have more questions later (once I think about and organize them).

[Lathum]

Well we are going to see Star Trek then going out. I should be around alot though.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Catching up. I've had a crazy busy day flying from Boston to Seattle, then having to get my dog and cat and try to get settled.

I will likely be quiet early on. Most of the long time players will tell you games like this take me a few days to wrap my brain around.

A couple of early thoughts.

This whole cultist=wolf thing seems to easy, without having a grasp of the rules, it seems BK would have something in place to prevent that from being so simple.

Hoops worries me. It seems he could be making this play as the cunning, become seer and buy himself a few days and some false scans that would cause us all kinds of problem.

I really don't like EF's game. Comes out early and claims wolf, then goes after me, then swaps to Dubb, it just seems like he is creating alot of confusion for confusions sake. He is also seemingly trying to set up some Duke/ tie showdown which seems to me would burn our Duke on day 1.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote DT seer

I guess we should have 2 candidates and Hoops gives me the willies

Originally Posted by Lathum

Unvote believe DT
believe Hoops as seer

Obviously DT isn't getting elected so I may as well ensure hoops does

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dubb must be playing some end game scenerio or something.

I am the other seer. I scanned Hoops N1 and he came up good, I scanned CR N2 and he also came up good. I scanned Racer N3 and he came back wolf.

My guess is it is 6-5 and they are trying to get an uncleared villager with a history as a wolf lynched.

I mean ask yourselves why they waited until now to claim I was scanned.

VOTE RACER

Alright, I was hoping to catch Lathum in a lie but didn't (i.e. still acting like he was worried about Hoops after Day one). He mentions he's weary of Hoops day one, but no mention after that.

He did end up voting for Hoops as seer on day one, but to be fair, I did the same thing after DT had no chance of getting the role.

[Tyrith]

Lathum's response to the charge today seems more like his wolf response than his villager response, due to the sheer aggressiveness of it. Or so another player in this game would say, and his advice hasn't stirred me wrong too often. There really isn't much about this Lathum/dubb situation that would make me think Lathum is on the correct side.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Lathum's response to the charge today seems more like his wolf response than his villager response, due to the sheer aggressiveness of it. Or so another player in this game would say, and his advice hasn't stirred me wrong too often. There really isn't much about this Lathum/dubb situation that would make me think Lathum is on the correct side.

There's a case there against Dubb actually. I'm still not decided, and will lay out both sides at some point this weekend.

[ntndeacon]

booooooo!

[Schmidty]

I'm home. About to start the Tivoed Red Wings Cup game, but I read a bit of the thread. I'm not surprised that I'm a suspected wolf, as per usual, but I still don't understand the reason.

Anyway, weekend play sucks, so I'm going to have my ribs and watch the game.

[DaddyTorgo]

did you all catch a wolf yet?

[Danny]

Dubb

Case for:
Revealed duke which went uncontested

Was clearly open to being scanned

I find it unlikely their would be no duke in the game

Was the first reveal of finding a wolf with Lathum

Seemed less convinced that I was telling the truth about killing him as the maniac as opposed to some others who seemed to suddenly believe me with certainty.

Possible Case against:
Possibility that there is no duke in the game and as a wolf he knew that

Was not upfront about the tiebreaker and could be making it up since to thos point no tie has gone against the second tiebreaker. I'm still not sure I completely understand why his vote would have remained on Racer and he would have chosen Lerriuqs for the tiebreaker.

Hoops late vote switch may have been an opportunity to have Dubb to backtrack on the tiebreaker

Scanned and pushed for Saldana as maniac who took out a villager with his maniac kill.

Was on for a little bit this morning before posting he found a wolf, almost like he would have been verifying who he wanted to say was scanned as a wolf.

Lathum

Case for:

If Dubb is lying, he is obviously good

Case against:

Had a chance to reveal about finding Racer before Dubb revealed, but did not.

Wolves may know there is no false seer in the game and used that to try and counter Dubb's scan reveal

[PurdueBrad]

Right now, based on what I too read as an odd day 1 play of believing DT as seer, talking about how weird/bad Hoops seems to be, and then flipping that believe vote back to Hoops to "make sure that he wins" I will put my vote:

vote Lathum

[PurdueBrad]

I am also, as Hoops pointed out, intrigued that he is the only one off of that list willing to claim vanilla wolf.

So Racer, Schmidty, Telle, and USFL- Are you the vanilla wolf? If not, why not?

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I am also, as Hoops pointed out, intrigued that he is the only one off of that list willing to claim vanilla wolf.

So Racer, Schmidty, Telle, and USFL- Are you the vanilla wolf? If not, why not?

I generally think it would be stupid for the village to believe anyone that with the chance that there hasn't been a conversion (i.e. the wolves may be looking for the cultist).

I'm willing to claim if you want, but I don't really feel like being night killed by a villager when I'm a villager.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Right now, based on what I too read as an odd day 1 play of believing DT as seer, talking about how weird/bad Hoops seems to be, and then flipping that believe vote back to Hoops to "make sure that he wins" I will put my vote:

vote Lathum

I interpreted the "Make sure he wins" as vote for a seer day one instead of a bodyguard day one. I did the same thing.

That said, I don't trust Lathum at all. Unless it's between him and either Dubbs or Hoopsguy, I'll be voting for him.

On the topic of Hoopsguy, how do others feel about him? I think he's the one guy who is definitely a wolf at this point while I think Lathum and Dubbs are only probably wolves (I know that Dubbs said Lathum is a wolf).

If others aren't one 100% sure on Dubbs and Lathum either, then it might be a smarter move to scan one of them next since I am positive at least one of them has to be a wolf.

[Racer]

Also, my thoughts on Lathum.

Lathum
For being a wolf:
-"100% trusts" his scans when PurdueBrad already claimed seer much earlier. Also, I could easily turn up a wolf from a fake seer scan since the villager-wolf ratio is probably either 7-4 (36.4%) or 6-5 (45.5%) at this point. Since he's a veteran of this game, I don't think he would 100% trust his scans if he really was a villager.
-Turned up a wolf on Dubb's scan. Even if Dubb is a wolf, they could still be playing off of each other to try to take heat off the other.
-"90%" of time the person who comes out 2nd claiming something is a wolf.

Not sure:
-Would a fake seer really say something to the effect of, "It usually takes me a few day to wrap my head around games like this". He said that earlier which sort of hints he's a seer in my opinion.

against being a wolf:
-Said multiple times on day one I believe that he doesn't trust Hoopsguy. Didn't reiterate that after day one.
-Someone pointed out earlier that either the wolves know that every role is in the game or specifically one role that isn't in the game. Assuming that not every role is present in the game, would they wait until day 4 to use it. That said I think it's very probable that the wolves could have taken a chance and guessed the fake seer isn't in the game.

Dubbs:
I laid these reasons out when I voted for him.

[hoopsguy]

I would like to believe Lathum when he said he scanned me as good and Racer as bad because it would be nice to be cleared and Racer is someone that I think is a wolf.

It also plays into the distrust I've had of Dubb for a couple of days now - I'm still really frustrated that he is around with our believed seer power and uncleared at this juncture in the game. That is really gnawing at me when I look at this as an endgame play for the wolves.

But I don't think that Dubb and Racer are both wolves - I think they are on opposite sides. Lathum's version of events seems to strongly suggest that they are aligned and I'm just not buying it right now.

For now,
VOTE LATHUM
VOTE DUBB

[hoopsguy]

Heh - you can see my flip-flopping on this in the last post. Was initially going to go Dubb when I changed my mind based on the last point.

Vote is for Lathum (for now)

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

In my mind, there are only two real scenarios in play. One is that hoops and Lathum are both bad, and they have been doing everything they can to stop us from believing our one rock solid data source, in dubb. In this case Racer is almost certainly bad - hoops late vote and Lathum saying he's bad reconcile in this scenario. The rest of the wolves would be in the UTRs.

The other is that dubb is bad, and I'm willing to accept that we lose in that case. To be quite frank, either Lathum/hoops or dubb is playing us at this point, and dubb tried harder (and had the time to try harder) this game. If dubb is bad, Racer is probably still bad, and the rest of the wolves are hiding in the UTRs. This pretty much means all the UTRs are bad.

Dubb's explanation of the tie breaking mechanism makes sense to me - the role description just says breaks ties, not his vote breaks a tie.

Why the hell would I be bad in the 2nd scenario? I'm pretty sure I would have taken one for the team instead of forcing a tie to test to see whether or not Dubb was really the Duke.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

Lathum, while obviously you or Dubb is bad, it is possible you are the false seer and Racer isn't actually a wolf. Why would you not vote Dubb? Especially since Racer is the other person here who believes Dubb is bad.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I trust my scans so I am going that way, you seem hellbent to vote on people who are unscanned and unknown, like Telle, when that could cost us the game.

I think the best course of action is lynch Racer, then you can take out Dubb tonight and we get 2 wolves. If it makes you feel better I can claim vanilla villager and if Racer comes up good you can kill me tonight.

Missed this before.

I guess you're the only person left that actually makes any sense for me to claim a role.

Lathum, if it keeps you from voting for me and voting for Hoops or Dubb instead, then I will claim a role. I know for a fact you are either the fake seer or a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Just to avoid any more potential confusion for BK (and others when they are tabulating votes.

UNVOTE EVERYONE I VOTED FOR IN POST #1383
VOTE LATHUM

[Racer]

Okay, for Lathum.

I am the tough villager.

I'm not going to claim a role that doesn't help the village at all that could potentially help the wolves if they haven't found the cultist (that being the vanilla wolf role).

[Racer]

Lathum, you now have no reason to vote for me if you are actually a villager (if I'm believed).

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, so Racer has stepped up and believed something as well, meaning that that gives Danny two possible choices. I would expect/hope to see the rest step up and claim one of the roles as well.

NOT claiming vanilla wolf DOES make me suspicious though just because it could be a wolf trying to protect their wolf powers rather than actually trying in some way to help the village. Obviously, the person we believe for a role will not make the night, so it shouldn't matter what role you get believed for UNLESS you are the brutal wolf.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alright, so Racer has stepped up and believed something as well, meaning that that gives Danny two possible choices. I would expect/hope to see the rest step up and claim one of the roles as well.

NOT claiming vanilla wolf DOES make me suspicious though just because it could be a wolf trying to protect their wolf powers rather than actually trying in some way to help the village. Obviously, the person we believe for a role will not make the night, so it shouldn't matter what role you get believed for UNLESS you are the brutal wolf.

I just don't like the idea of nominating anyone who hasn't been cleared as vanilla wolf. If we believe an actual wolf as that, it allows them to know who the cultist is, if the person hasn't been converted yet.

I guess it just depends on which risk you would rather take. If most people would rather take the risk that comes with the vanilla wolf, I would claim that I guess.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay, for Lathum.

I am the tough villager.

I'm not going to claim a role that doesn't help the village at all that could potentially help the wolves if they haven't found the cultist (that being the vanilla wolf role).

how exactly does that help the village?

[Racer]

Ah, I guess it makes sense for me to claim both roles then (since people are voting on it).

I am a vanilla wolf

I thinking voting someone as a tough villager is a better way to go though.

[Lathum]

hmm, nice backtrack tthere Racer.

[Lathum]

and why are people so quick to believe PB as the real seer. It's not like we are operating with a large number of scans here.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

how exactly does that help the village?

Poor wording. It really doesn't help us. It's just until PurdueBrad pointed it out that the brutal wolf might go for something else, I didn't see how it could hurt the village to believe someone as tough villager whereas I saw how believing someone as the vanilla wolf could hurt the village.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and why are people so quick to believe PB as the real seer. It's not like we are operating with a large number of scans here.

I believe PB because I know I am good and your "scan" of me was bad.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Poor wording. It really doesn't help us. It's just until PurdueBrad pointed it out that the brutal wolf might go for something else, I didn't see how it could hurt the village to believe someone as tough villager whereas I saw how believing someone as the vanilla wolf could hurt the village.

I just find it interesting that you would select a role that makes it more dufficult to lynch you. Were you planning for tomorrow for when it comes back I am telling the truth.

[Lathum]

Just to extrapolate on my point about PB

He has scanned CR, Tyrith and Danny
I have scanned Hoops, CR and Racer.

Of that group we know only CR's alligience. There is no reason to believe PB is the real seer over me.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just find it interesting that you would select a role that makes it more dufficult to lynch you. Were you planning for tomorrow for when it comes back I am telling the truth.

Well we can't believe anyone as a seer, bodyguard, or maniac right now and believing anyone as Duke that the whole village doesn't trust would be stupid since that gives someone the ability to change the lynch vote if desire. The only villager role left was the tough villager.