WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER - Page 31

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I know I've said it, but if we're wrong about Lathum, we will almost certainly lose today.

I don't see us as 6-5 right now, honestly. I envision 7-4 and I really think that we have a good possibility of getting to 6-2 (assuming a nk goes our way and they get one on us). Although with people too wolfy to say that they are the vanilla wolf, it may not be possible.

USFLTecmo · 06-01-2009, 01:43 PM

I'm lost as to why it benefits me to claim vanilla wolf. Shed some light on that for me, please.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I don't see us as 6-5 right now, honestly. I envision 7-4 and I really think that we have a good possibility of getting to 6-2 (assuming a nk goes our way and they get one on us). Although with people too wolfy to say that they are the vanilla wolf, it may not be possible.

If that is the case then Dubb is telling the truth. If he was a wolf, it only makes sense to lie about Lathum here if it's an end game scenario. Otherwise we end up wrong on Lathum, but are still alive and then have a decent chance at figuring this out.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 01:44 PM

I am amazed that Racer and PB both keep completely glossing over the fact that it could be game over if I am lynched today.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

I'm lost as to why it benefits me to claim vanilla wolf. Shed some light on that for me, please.

It benefits the village, the fact none of you are willing means the two of you that are likely wolves can hide behind that.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am amazed that Racer and PB both keep completely glossing over the fact that it could be game over if I am lynched today.

PB seems convinced there was only 3 starting wolves, but last game with 17 or so had 4 starting wolves and a convert too.

USFLTecmo · 06-01-2009, 01:46 PM

Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am amazed that Racer and PB both keep completely glossing over the fact that it could be game over if I am lynched today.

I'm not glossing it over, but how is it different if you're a wolf and dubb isn't? STILL GAME OVER. Either way, with your theory, it is game over if we're wrong. So the game over argument makes no sense at that point.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?

By sheer numbers, of the four who are being asked to do this 2/4 are likely wolves and quite possible 3/4 are. By the villager or two in there not stepping up, it allows the wolves in there to hide behind that.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?

It allows Danny to take a shot at a wolf off of that list.

Telle · 06-01-2009, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?

Because it means he can night kill you. And IF you are a wolf that's good for the village. Problem being is that if he offs a villager it could be game-over.. something that keeps getting glossed over.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Because it means he can night kill you. And IF you are a wolf that's good for the village. Problem being is that if he offs a villager it could be game-over.. something that keeps getting glossed over.

I'm not going to use my power willy nilly, we've have more information to work tonight assuming it's not game over and an additional night kill option. If the data we learn doesn't support that I won't use it.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:49 PM

So far, here is who have stated certain roles to be believed:

Hoops- Vanilla Wolf
Racer- Tough Villager, Vanilla Wolf
USFC Tecmo- Said in a post "I'm a vanilla villager"

That leaves Telle, Schmidty, and maybe/hopefully a van. wolf one from USFC.

USFLTecmo · 06-01-2009, 01:49 PM

All right. Fine. I'm apparently not in any position of trust, and I lack the ammo to change that. So here. I just want it on the record that torching me tonight ends our chances.

I'm the vanilla wolf.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Because it means he can night kill you. And IF you are a wolf that's good for the village. Problem being is that if he offs a villager it could be game-over.. something that keeps getting glossed over.

Except for the fact that the village will be the ones picking because we have to believe that person, as a group, first.

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm not glossing it over, but how is it different if you're a wolf and dubb isn't? STILL GAME OVER. Either way, with your theory, it is game over if we're wrong. So the game over argument makes no sense at that point.

This game doesn't make sense anyway because of lack of facts or patterns, so what does it matter. Might as well just pick a name out of a hat.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

All right. Fine. I'm apparently not in any position of trust, and I lack the ammo to change that. So here. I just want it on the record that torching me tonight ends our chances.

I'm the vanilla wolf.

USFL, I appreciate it and it does go a long way towards where you stand for me. The other thing it should do with all our seers is give you the benefit of a scan assuming we don't 'believe' you are the actual wolf. So for the village, thanks.

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So far, here is who have stated certain roles to be believed:

Hoops- Vanilla Wolf
Racer- Tough Villager, Vanilla Wolf
USFC Tecmo- Said in a post "I'm a vanilla villager"

That leaves Telle, Schmidty, and maybe/hopefully a van. wolf one from USFC.

I said near the beginning that I have no role, so you might as well move my name. Thanks.

Not that it matters since my word, just like everyone else's means jack this game.

Telle · 06-01-2009, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Except for the fact that the village will be the ones picking because we have to believe that person, as a group, first.

Yeah except Danny seems hell bent on me being a wolf and so I see him persuading the rest of you and then you end up with a villager dead.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:52 PM

No, I think you actually have to make the statement for us to be able to believe you but I'm not 100% on that.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm not glossing it over, but how is it different if you're a wolf and dubb isn't? STILL GAME OVER. Either way, with your theory, it is game over if we're wrong. So the game over argument makes no sense at that point.

To be fair, there is a possible difference. If Dubb is a wolf, this was an end game play. If Lathum is a wolf, there's no backing one way or the other of this being an end game play.

PurdueBrad · 06-01-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Yeah except Danny seems hell bent on me being a wolf and so I see him persuading the rest of you and then you end up with a villager dead.

Telle, I had a wolf vibe (and that's all it was) from you early but I think it was last game carrying over. Since then, I think you're okay, so you aren't really the one I would pick, you're probably third right now. That being said, I am likely to vote for people that don't do it tomorrow but hey, as everyone has pointed out, there may be no tomorrow so what the hell.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Yeah except Danny seems hell bent on me being a wolf and so I see him persuading the rest of you and then you end up with a villager dead.

Tonight based on the lynch, we will have new information to work with. If you end up being believed and what I see doesn't line up with you being a wolf I won't kill you.

Telle · 06-01-2009, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Tonight based on the lynch, we will have new information to work with. If you end up being believed and what I see doesn't line up with you being a wolf I won't kill you.

Well forgive me if that doesn't sound overly re-assuring.. seeing as how you've been proclaiming my supposed wolfiness from the mountain-tops with nothing to back it up but "gut".

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 01:59 PM

I know everyone hates this, but we might as well just use random.org this lynch. I don't really mean that, but it would be just as informed of a vote as we're going to get anyway.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I know everyone hates this, but we might as well just use random.org this lynch. I don't really mean that, but it would be just as informed of a vote as we're going to get anyway.

Not exactly as we do have at least a 50% chance at hitting a wolf today, well maybe not because the wolves can manipulate the vote.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Well forgive me if that doesn't sound overly re-assuring.. seeing as how you've been proclaiming my supposed wolfiness from the mountain-tops with nothing to back it up but "gut".

What have you done that in anyway indicates you are not a wolf? By sheer numbers, if we assume PB, Tyrith and I are good (which at this point we kind of have to) and then one out of Lathum/Dubb being good, that leaves us with 6 players, 3 or 4 of which being bad. There is a solid 50/50 maybe more chance of you being a wolf just based on numbers and my read has you more likely to be a wolf than Schmidty or USFL at this point. That may change, but that's what I have to go on for now.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:05 PM

Oh and if you stay on this stance, you're almost certainly going to be the lynch tomorrow.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I know everyone hates this, but we might as well just use random.org this lynch. I don't really mean that, but it would be just as informed of a vote as we're going to get anyway.

I see your frustration but thats not true.

We have information, it's just whether you want to believe it or not.

You and I are in the same boat with people believing we are wolves.

I know I am not and have faith in my scan of Racer, then Dubb goes at night by Danny's hand. That to me is the best play.

Dubb could have just as easily claim he scanned you, but I think he knows by my reputation that he could get people to follow.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Oh and if you stay on this stance, you're almost certainly going to be the lynch tomorrow.

And this is coming from PB and yes unless there is new info, I would probably follow on this.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

What have you done that in anyway indicates you are not a wolf? By sheer numbers, if we assume PB, Tyrith and I are good (which at this point we kind of have to) .

why are you so quick to assume Tyrith is good?

PB could easily be the fake seer, another point you are choosing to gloss over.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:07 PM

Lathum I asked this, but since you trust your scans, you think PB is the false seer?

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

why are you so quick to assume Tyrith is good?

PB could easily be the fake seer, another point you are choosing to gloss over.

Obviously that depends largely on what happens with this lynch. If you are telling the truth, I would have to reevaluate that, if you are the wolf then obviously PB is the real seer.

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Oh and if you stay on this stance, you're almost certainly going to be the lynch tomorrow.

So be it. We wouldn't lose anything important other than a useless villager with no power. How would I even argue against it? There're no more facts to back up my innocence than there are to condemn me or anyone else. Maybe my death would actually help to establish some type of record of votes to go on.

Hell, lynch me today. I'm annoyed by this game.

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I see your frustration but thats not true.

We have information, it's just whether you want to believe it or not.

You and I are in the same boat with people believing we are wolves.

I know I am not and have faith in my scan of Racer, then Dubb goes at night by Danny's hand. That to me is the best play.

Dubb could have just as easily claim he scanned you, but I think he knows by my reputation that he could get people to follow.

I'll just trust your claim. There's no less reason to trust you than anyone else.

Vote Racer

This might get me killed today or tomorrow, but at least the villagers will have more to go on. I'll sacrifice myself;.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

So be it. We wouldn't lose anything important other than a useless villager with no power. How would I even argue against it? There're no more facts to back up my innocence than there are to condemn me or anyone else. Maybe my death would actually help to establish some type of record of votes to go on.

Hell, lynch me today. I'm annoyed by this game.

I actually meant Telle, but I guess it could apply to you too.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Lathum I asked this, but since you trust your scans, you think PB is the false seer?

seems logical

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Obviously that depends largely on what happens with this lynch. If you are telling the truth, I would have to reevaluate that, if you are the wolf then obviously PB is the real seer.

dude, game over. no reevaluation necessary. May as well start the signup thread for the next game.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I'll just trust your claim. There's no less reason to trust you than anyone else.

Vote Racer

This might get me killed today or tomorrow, but at least the villagers will have more to go on. I'll sacrifice myself;.

I really wish Lathum would have gone with Dubb, You are 50/50 to be the false seer and with the dwindling villagers the chances for you to falsely scan a wolf were reasonable, as was PB's to scan me as a wolf if he was the false seer. PB did not falsely scan a wolf, I don't know whether you did or not. It makes more sense to vote Dubb though since you know 100% he is a wolf if you're a villager.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

seems logical

dude, game over. no reevaluation necessary. May as well start the signup thread for the next game.

You do realize my vote is not on you right now? It's possible we lynch Dubb to find out you are telling the truth.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

You do realize my vote is not on you right now? It's possible we lynch Dubb to find out you are telling the truth.

Well I am in the ead by a decent margin right now so you have to excuse my assumptions that a new game will be starting soon.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:23 PM

That wouldn't be the case if you weren't as stubborn on Racer. Otherwise with schmidty now supporting you, there would reasonably be four votes on DUbb right now as originally Racer voted that way.

Tyrith · 06-01-2009, 02:23 PM

There's nothing I can really say at this point that hasn't already been said. I'm not moving my vote.

Danny · 06-01-2009, 02:26 PM

Tyrith, you are on Lathum right now?

Racer · 06-01-2009, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I'll just trust your claim. There's no less reason to trust you than anyone else.

Vote Racer

This might get me killed today or tomorrow, but at least the villagers will have more to go on. I'll sacrifice myself;.

This vote makes no sense today since clearly Dubb or Lathum (or potentially both) are wolves. You could definitely argue for me tomorrow (if Dubb is confirmed good or goes unscanned), but today it just makes no sense.

Lathum · 06-01-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

This vote makes no sense today since clearly Dubb or Lathum (or potentially both) are wolves. You could definitely argue for me tomorrow (if Dubb is confirmed good or goes unscanned), but today it just makes no sense.

There you ga again glossing over the fact that there is no tomorrow unless we get it right.

Racer · 06-01-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So far, here is who have stated certain roles to be believed:

Hoops- Vanilla Wolf
Racer- Tough Villager, Vanilla Wolf
USFC Tecmo- Said in a post "I'm a vanilla villager"

That leaves Telle, Schmidty, and maybe/hopefully a van. wolf one from USFC.

Hoops also claimed vanilla villager I believe (which would be a mistake to believe anyone as).

Racer · 06-01-2009, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

There you ga again glossing over the fact that there is no tomorrow unless we get it right.

Well perhaps, but I don't think there is anyway to know if we're at 7-4 or 6-5 right now. If it's 6-5 and we get it wrong, we're screwed. Voting for you makes a little more sense then Dubb at this point because Dubb can be night killed by Danny whereas you cannot.

USFLTecmo · 06-01-2009, 03:46 PM

BELIEVE HOOPS AS VANILLA WOLF
BELIEVE RACER AS VANILLA WOLF

Just so we can get some believing actually accomplished rather than talked about.

Schmidty · 06-01-2009, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

This vote makes no sense today since clearly Dubb or Lathum (or potentially both) are wolves. You could definitely argue for me tomorrow (if Dubb is confirmed good or goes unscanned), but today it just makes no sense.

Why am I to believe that dubb or Lathum are wolves again?

Racer · 06-01-2009, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Why am I to believe that dubb or Lathum are wolves again?

Dubb "scanned" Lathum as a wolf. Since believed seer's scans are 100%, either Dubb is lieing (meaning he's a wolf) or Lathum's a wolf since he was scanned as one.

I also think there is chance both are wolves and are trying to take heat off one or the other.

So if Lathum is telling the truth that he's a villager, then Dubb is definitely a wolf. Even if Lathum is telling the truth, you have to consider there is a very real possibility that Lathum is a fake seer and that his scans are no good.

If it's 6-5 at this point, then there's a 45.5% chance of a scan coming up as a wolf.

If it's a 7-4 at this point, then there's still a 36.4% chance of a scan coming up as a wolf.

06-01-2009, 01:59 PM	#1525
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	I know everyone hates this, but we might as well just use random.org this lynch. I don't really mean that, but it would be just as informed of a vote as we're going to get anyway. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-01-2009, 01:43 PM	#1502
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	I'm lost as to why it benefits me to claim vanilla wolf. Shed some light on that for me, please.

06-01-2009, 01:44 PM	#1504
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I am amazed that Racer and PB both keep completely glossing over the fact that it could be game over if I am lynched today.

06-01-2009, 01:46 PM	#1507
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?

06-01-2009, 01:49 PM	#1514
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	All right. Fine. I'm apparently not in any position of trust, and I lack the ammo to change that. So here. I just want it on the record that torching me tonight ends our chances. I'm the vanilla wolf.

06-01-2009, 02:05 PM	#1528
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Oh and if you stay on this stance, you're almost certainly going to be the lynch tomorrow.

06-01-2009, 02:07 PM	#1532
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Lathum I asked this, but since you trust your scans, you think PB is the false seer?

06-01-2009, 02:23 PM	#1541
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	That wouldn't be the case if you weren't as stubborn on Racer. Otherwise with schmidty now supporting you, there would reasonably be four votes on DUbb right now as originally Racer voted that way.

06-01-2009, 02:23 PM	#1542
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	There's nothing I can really say at this point that hasn't already been said. I'm not moving my vote.

06-01-2009, 02:26 PM	#1543
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Tyrith, you are on Lathum right now?

06-01-2009, 03:46 PM	#1548
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	BELIEVE HOOPS AS VANILLA WOLF BELIEVE RACER AS VANILLA WOLF Just so we can get some believing actually accomplished rather than talked about.

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