The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[Atocep]

I agree mostly. I do think the state of the union ends up mostly washing out. People have short attention spans and tire of scandals unless there are significant updates. The state of the union, Gaza, and 1000 other things will either be forgotten or have far less importance to voters by election day. Republicans can't really run on the Gaza situation because they're all for Israel steamrolling through there at any cost. 7 months from now its u likely to have much, if any, impact.

Abortion and the economy will be the 2 biggest factors in this election. The economy is strong fundamentally but people are still not comfortable with the combination of inflation and shrinkflation we're seeing. Abortion, though, is still killing the GOP. They lost a state seat special election in Alabama by 25 points in a district that Trump won and went +7 to the GOP in 2022 by heavily focusing on reproductive rights.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I agree mostly. I do think the state of the union ends up mostly washing out. People have short attention spans and tire of scandals unless there are significant updates. The state of the union, Gaza, and 1000 other things will either be forgotten or have far less importance to voters by election day. Republicans can't really run on the Gaza situation because they're all for Israel steamrolling through there at any cost. 7 months from now its u likely to have much, if any, impact.

Abortion and the economy will be the 2 biggest factors in this election. The economy is strong fundamentally but people are still not comfortable with the combination of inflation and shrinkflation we're seeing. Abortion, though, is still killing the GOP. They lost a state seat special election in Alabama by 25 points in a district that Trump won and went +7 to the GOP in 2022 by heavily focusing on reproductive rights.

I really don't think those issues will go away. And I really think Democrats are making a huge mistake assuming that everyone is just going to come back to the table at election time. I'm sure some will, but I think they are vastly underestimating how many people are angry with Biden and his hard right shift and continuation of unpopular policies. Repeatedly antagonizing your base seems like a bad strategy.

Maybe they have internal data telling them things are great. Maybe there is a plan to abandon Michigan because they think they can win North Carolina with these policies instead (they did think they could win Georgia in 2020 when most people didn't think they could). And maybe they think there are enough never-Trumpers to make up for all the people they are losing.

But sure seems to me like a campaign that is fucking up bad (see their immigration stunt) and will need to pull out some excuses for why they botched another election to Donald Trump of all people.

[RainMaker]

Here is how Biden is going to be haunted over the next 9 months. We're going to keep seeing stories like this pop up every week. They can't ban every social media site posting them like they want to with TikTok. This isn't a war that will end next week, it's going to go on till November and Netanyahu will do everything in his power to make Biden look bad.

A new Al Jazeera video shows what is an apparently unarmed man shot by IDF forces while walking along the seaside, by the Nabulsi/Netzarim checkpoint

He was shot right next to the pier that was being built after Biden's State of the Union.

Imagery below is March 20 from Planet https://t.co/muNo8bahaz pic.twitter.com/M5l7QeTxg8

— Aric Toler (@AricToler) March 27, 2024

[GrantDawg]

Joe Lieberman has died. He was one of the biggest names behind the "No Labels" party, who can't seem to find anyone interested in running for them.

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[Ksyrup]

Our local news said he was 94. I about choked. But no, he was about Biden's age.

[GrantDawg]

He had a fall. That is just an example of how quickly someone of Biden or Trump's age can go down from something as simple as a fall.

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[molson]

I'm pretty sure my parents bought their retirement house because the realtor told them that Joe Lieberman's wife's parents were a previous owner. She did grow up there in Gardner, MA, but, otherwise, unsubstantiated.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Our local news said he was 94. I about choked. But no, he was about Biden's age.

That did surprise me so googling said 82.

[RainMaker]

He was an enormous piece of shit.

[GrantDawg]

Y'all do realize that P. Diddy having his houses raided for sex trafficking almost guarantees he is going to be Trump's running mate, right?

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[Edward64]

Diddy do it?

[RainMaker]

Reaching the point where Trump would be a better choice in terms of foreign policy and at least slowing down genocide than Biden. Still think he'd allow a lot, but he understands the situation much better than Biden.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/u...&smid=tw-share

[BYU 14]

So ignore all the other damage he will do? Beyond that, Israel won't listen to him anymore than they listen to Biden. You want them to listen, cut off aid until they allow complete aid and quit killing civilians.

[RainMaker]

Israel absolutely listens when you turn off the money spigot. HW and Reagan did it and got what they wanted. Joe being a feckless pussy doesn't change that reality.

[flere-imsaho]

We already know what Trump's foreign policy would be. It would be doing what Putin wants the U.S. to do. Given that you seem totally fine with Putin being allowed to do what he wants to do, RM, I could see how you would come up with such a ridiculous statement.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

We already know what Trump's foreign policy would be. It would be doing what Putin wants the U.S. to do. Given that you seem totally fine with Putin being allowed to do what he wants to do, RM, I could see how you would come up with such a ridiculous statement.

I'm not fine with what Putin is doing. I just don't think we should be sending hundreds of billions in weapons for an unwinnable war. Also think the potential blowback of sending hundreds of billions in weapons to a poor country with extremely far-right militias and little oversight is a recipe for disaster (not to mention entering a proxy war with a nuclear power). Have a feeling we'll be seeing those weapons end up in some sketchy hands down the road.

You'd think people would realize this after the other dozen or so times this strategy blew up in our face, but maybe this time is different.

Trump sucks and all but his foreign policy is much better. It'd keep us out of nevernding conflict in Ukraine and save hundreds of billions. Plus he at least seems to have a line with Israel committing genocide that Joe doesn't.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Trump sucks and all but his foreign policy is much better.

From the first Trump Administration, a short-list:

• Withdrew from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia
• Alternately increased defense funding and criticized the amount spent on defense
• Pardoned and promoted soldiers who were convicted and accused, respectively, of war crimes
• Increased drone strikes from the Obama Administration, and reduced transparency, including the Obama-era policy of reporting civilian deaths due to drone strikes
• Legitimized North Korea, removed sanctions placed on North Korea, and saluted North Korean generals
• Withdrew the U.S. from an Iranian sanctions program that then allowed Iran greater freedom to develop nuclear weapons
• Removed support from the Kurds, causing them to ally with Syria against Turkey, another stated objective of Russia in the region
• Sold billions of weapons to Saudi Arabia, said great things about MBS, and condoned the murder of Jamal Khashoggi
• Gave legitimacy to the practice of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank

[Atocep]

I would add legitimizing the Taliban and inviting them to talks at Camp David to that list.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

From the first Trump Administration, a short-list:

• Withdrew from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia
• Alternately increased defense funding and criticized the amount spent on defense
• Pardoned and promoted soldiers who were convicted and accused, respectively, of war crimes
• Increased drone strikes from the Obama Administration, and reduced transparency, including the Obama-era policy of reporting civilian deaths due to drone strikes
• Legitimized North Korea, removed sanctions placed on North Korea, and saluted North Korean generals
• Withdrew the U.S. from an Iranian sanctions program that then allowed Iran greater freedom to develop nuclear weapons
• Removed support from the Kurds, causing them to ally with Syria against Turkey, another stated objective of Russia in the region
• Sold billions of weapons to Saudi Arabia, said great things about MBS, and condoned the murder of Jamal Khashoggi
• Gave legitimacy to the practice of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank

Yeah, Trump was pretty bad and still much better than Biden's foreign policy. That should tell you something.

[flere-imsaho]

I mean, that's the short list.

The fact of the matter is that the first Trump Administration's foreign policy more-or-less completely consisted of delivering on the hopes & dreams of autocrats everywhere, but especially those who had bankrolled TrumpCo over the years (Russia, though much of that was money laundering) or bankrolled Jared Kushner during the administration (Saudi Arabia) or allowed Ivanka to make money (China, granting IP rights), while simultaneously alienating long-standing U.S. allies.

If that's what constitues a "much better" foreign policy, then at least be honest about it.

And let's not forget that part of the problem with Israel right now is down to the fact that Netanyahu has been supported and emboldened for years by the same evangelical right donors that are also Trump's most fervent supporters. To think that he's magically going to bring Netanyahu to heel is fantasy, magical thinking. He'll do whatever 2025's version of Sheldon Adelson wants him to do in Israel. Or be persuaded to let Israel sweep Gaza off the map so he can get in on the seaside real estatement investment opportunities that his son-in-law talked about.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yeah, Trump was pretty bad and still much better than Biden's foreign policy. That should tell you something.

You're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I would add legitimizing the Taliban and inviting them to talks at Camp David to that list.

As bad as the Taliban is, they're actually the more moderate group in the country. Beats supporting the absolute psycho Salafists and some of those warlords.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

As bad as the Taliban is, they're actually the more moderate group in the country. Beats supporting the absolute psycho Salafists and some of those warlords.

Taliban edict to resume stoning women to death met with horror | Taliban | The Guardian

How are the other groups worse?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

Worth noting that most of those things you mentioned, Biden supports. Increase defense funding, drone strikes, West Bank settlements, weapons to the Saudis, betraying the Kurds, and the embrace of war crimes. On the others, he hasn't cared enough to change them.

On top of it, Biden is spearheading a genocide in Gaza where even our own citizens are being executed by the Israeli government. Netanyahu is openly mocking him on a daily basis it seems. One of the lowest points in American foreign policy history that will have repercussions for the rest of our lives.

The Ukraine War has cost hundreds of billions and ended up with us being less safe and Ukraine still losing (still too cowardly to implement and act on any sanctions that may harm wealthy people). The Saudis embarrass him a few times a year for fun. Even Sisi in Egypt has gotten in on that.

We've had some terrible foreign policy Presidents in our country, but he has to be up there as one of the weakest. Being subservient to tiny ethnostates and authoritarian regimes to the point that he sides with them over the deaths of his own citizens.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Taliban edict to resume stoning women to death met with horror | Taliban | The Guardian

How are the other groups worse?

Read up on Salafi jihadism. They view the Taliban as fake Muslims who are too secular. They're the ones that just shot up that concert hall in Russia.

As wild as it is, they're far more fucked up than the Taliban and believe their cause should be global.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Worth noting that most of those things you mentioned, Biden supports.

Really?

Here's my list, again:

• Withdrew from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia
• Alternately increased defense funding and criticized the amount spent on defense
• Pardoned and promoted soldiers who were convicted and accused, respectively, of war crimes
• Increased drone strikes from the Obama Administration, and reduced transparency, including the Obama-era policy of reporting civilian deaths due to drone strikes
• Legitimized North Korea, removed sanctions placed on North Korea, and saluted North Korean generals
• Withdrew the U.S. from an Iranian sanctions program that then allowed Iran greater freedom to develop nuclear weapons
• Removed support from the Kurds, causing them to ally with Syria against Turkey, another stated objective of Russia in the region
• Sold billions of weapons to Saudi Arabia, said great things about MBS, and condoned the murder of Jamal Khashoggi
• Gave legitimacy to the practice of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank

Which of those does Biden support?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

And let's not forget that part of the problem with Israel right now is down to the fact that Netanyahu has been supported and emboldened for years by the same evangelical right donors that are also Trump's most fervent supporters. To think that he's magically going to bring Netanyahu to heel is fantasy, magical thinking. He'll do whatever 2025's version of Sheldon Adelson wants him to do in Israel. Or be persuaded to let Israel sweep Gaza off the map so he can get in on the seaside real estatement investment opportunities that his son-in-law talked about.

So you're saying he'll just continue on doing what Biden is doing?

Also, drop the "it's evangelicals causing this" nonsense. Liberals have defended the genocide (including many on this board). Almost all Democrats in power support it. Biden has supported it for decades and is pushing for more of it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Really?

Here's my list, again:

• Withdrew from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia - Russia broke it and it's kind of silly to stay in a treaty if one side is not abiding by it. A lot you can criticize him for but continuing to abide by a treaty the other side isn't is really dumb. You somehow found the one Russia example where Trump was kind of tough on them.
• Alternately increased defense funding and criticized the amount spent on defense - Biden has done this and is asking for hundreds of billions more in military aid for other countries to fight our proxy wars.
  
• Pardoned and promoted soldiers who were convicted and accused, respectively, of war crimes - Biden has ignored all the war crimes being committed in Gaza with our support. He also voted for those wars in Iraq and Afghanistan where this happened and said nothing about the war crimes the United States was committing while he was VP.
• Increased drone strikes from the Obama Administration, and reduced transparency, including the Obama-era policy of reporting civilian deaths due to drone strikes - We're bombing Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Somalia in just the past couple months. We're providing weapons and support in bombings of many others.
  
• Legitimized North Korea, removed sanctions placed on North Korea, and saluted North Korean generals - Which sanctions did he remove? I know he added a bunch when he was in power and even seized assets from NK. Worth noting that under Biden, NK is now much closer to Russia and is providing them with munitions to fight Ukraine. Not sure this is one you want to use.
• Withdrew the U.S. from an Iranian sanctions program that then allowed Iran greater freedom to develop nuclear weapons
• Removed support from the Kurds, causing them to ally with Syria against Turkey, another stated objective of Russia in the region - Biden literally just gave Turkey billions in military equipment to kill Kurds. You can't be serious. Fucking over the Kurds is sort of our thing.
• Sold billions of weapons to Saudi Arabia, said great things about MBS, and condoned the murder of Jamal Khashoggi - No difference from what Biden is doing.
• Gave legitimacy to the practice of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank - No difference from what Biden is doing.

Which of those does Biden support?

Listed above. If you're looking for some big Biden foreign policy win, the withdrawal from Afghanistan was genuinely a good decision. Although it was mostly just a shift of one neverending war to prop up defense companies to another.


Also added this for your "pardon war criminals" point.

JUST IN: The 🇺🇲 White House says there is no evidence that the 🇮🇱 IDF hit aid workers deliberately

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) April 2, 2024

[PilotMan]

This isn't genocide. It's exactly the sort of war that hawks want because it gets results. It's total war.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This isn't genocide. It's exactly the sort of war that hawks want because it gets results. It's total war.

Nazis said the same thing.

[RainMaker]

Also, what results are they getting? Starving a bunch of kids probably creates far more extremists than they can kill. Israel is sort of proof that committing genocide against a group creates extremists in that group in the aftermath.

[RainMaker]

This could be huge for the upcoming election. If it passes, it means Biden would have to win one of Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada where he is down heavily (assuming he can win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).

I'd be curious to see what that passing does to his odds. Seems like his best route was the MI, PA, WI path even if Michigan is a tall task now.

Nebraska’s GOP governor says he’s a “strong supporter” of a proposal to return the state to a winner-take-all system for electoral votes. The state’s legislative session ends April 18. https://t.co/DXuZ2iutdI

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) April 2, 2024

[Edward64]

Supposed Trump's VP list. My guess is Scott or Vance. Rubio should just say no and keep whatever pride he (and his wife) has left.

Just a moment...

The names under consideration continue to be in flux, according to multiple people familiar with the list, who describe it as being in “pencil, not pen.” But it includes

• Sens. Scott of South Carolina,
• Vance of Ohio,
• Katie Britt of Alabama and
• Marco Rubio of Florida, as well as
• Govs. Noem of South Dakota,
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas and
• Doug Burgum of North Dakota.
• Donalds, the Florida representative, and
• Gabbard, the former Hawaii representative,

among others, are also being considered or have been floated by Trump.

[Ksyrup]

I don't understand what Rubio would bring to the table, at all. It's like picking a slightly less annoying and polarizing Ted Cruz.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This could be huge for the upcoming election. If it passes, it means Biden would have to win one of Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada where he is down heavily (assuming he can win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).

I'd be curious to see what that passing does to his odds. Seems like his best route was the MI, PA, WI path even if Michigan is a tall task now.

Nebraska’s GOP governor says he’s a “strong supporter” of a proposal to return the state to a winner-take-all system for electoral votes. The state’s legislative session ends April 18. https://t.co/DXuZ2iutdI

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) April 2, 2024

This is one step in the process to ensure the deck is stacked for Trump. The other is legislatures ordering their state's slate of electors to vote for the candidate they tell them to.

[larrymcg421]

The founders intent thing is such BS. Winner take all wasn't a major thing until 1824.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Nazis said the same thing.

I think you win by equating Jews and Nazis on the same side of the table. Good going.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't understand what Rubio would bring to the table, at all. It's like picking a slightly less annoying and polarizing Ted Cruz.

Call it a hunch but ... it might merely be intended as an F.U. to DeSantis

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think you win by equating Jews and Nazis on the same side of the table. Good going.

I'm equating what Israel is doing to what the Nazis did. Genocide to continue their push for an ethnostate.

Judaism is a religion and no sovereign country owns it.

[RainMaker]

Couldn't Maine just do the same thing and even it all out?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Call it a hunch but ... it might merely be intended as an F.U. to DeSantis

Hah, didn’t think of that! You may well be right.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Call it a hunch but ... it might merely be intended as an F.U. to DeSantis

It would be a very fitting reason for Trump to pick his running mate. Just to piss a rival off.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Supposed Trump's VP list. My guess is Scott or Vance. Rubio should just say no and keep whatever pride he (and his wife) has left.

Just a moment...

I think Stefanik has to be pretty high on the list. She's changed her entire political profile to lobby for the role. Plus I feel like Trump would be more comfortable with a New Yorker.

Still can't fathom Scott getting the nod. A closeted black man from South Carolina is not going to help much. I think Britt torpedoed her chance with the weird SOTU rebuttal.

If I was betting, I'd still take the field over any of the names listed. I think it'll be a woman who won't upstage Trump. Someone like Kim Reynolds.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think Stefanik has to be pretty high on the list. She's changed her entire political profile to lobby for the role. Plus I feel like Trump would be more comfortable with a New Yorker.

Still can't fathom Scott getting the nod. A closeted black man from South Carolina is not going to help much. I think Britt torpedoed her chance with the weird SOTU rebuttal.

If I was betting, I'd still take the field over any of the names listed. I think it'll be a woman who won't upstage Trump. Someone like Kim Reynolds.

Reynolds endorsed Desantis, so she seems doubtful. I think Noem fits the profile.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Reynolds endorsed Desantis, so she seems doubtful. I think Noem fits the profile.

Noem likes to be in the media too much. Trump doesn't want someone that's going to pull attention away from him.

[Ryche]

I'll be quite surprised if he doesn't pick a white guy ala Pence. Burgum seems like a fit, older white guy who made a lot of money.

[JPhillips]

Pence was perfect in that he didn't need a lot of attention and wasn't ever going to show enough charisma to outshine the boss. Meanwhile, he loved the job because Trump didn't care about policy and Pence could do whatever he wanted behind the scenes.

So many of the candidates for VP now are obviously trying to raise their own profile and I can't see Trump elevating them. They all want the job because they hope Trump dies soon.

[albionmoonlight]

Pence was a great pick.

The evangelicals are now 100% MAGA. But that wasn't the case in 2016. There were some folks who wondered if they would support such a . . . secular candidate. Pence was a (successful) way of courting them.

And the GOP had a lot more establishment leaders and voters in 2016. Picking a boring Midwestern governor was a sign to those folks that you could back Trump.

And, as others noted, he did not fight Trump for attention.

Really, in hindsight, one of the best picks he could have made. That he ended up helping save the Republic four years later was just a bonus for the rest of us :-)

[cuervo72]

Just pick one of his kids (or in-laws) who doesn't reside in Florida. Not sure why he'd want to risk dying and not passing the torch directly anyway.

[Thomkal]

He can always pick one of his fellow convicts like bannon or navarro and we can all learn about Vice Presidential Immunity"