2014-2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Fangraphs apparently believes so .

Mariners Pay Kyle Seager Like The Player He Is | FanGraphs Baseball

They make a compelling case that over the last three years Seager and Sandoval are very comparable players.

Thanks for including this. Seattle's front office has a well-earned reputation for being a pack of stooges, so it is nice to see that at least this move might have some basis in reality.

[ISiddiqui]

Interestingly enough, it appears that the Giants may be using the money they would have spent on Sandoval to help get Lester. I think it'd be ironic if by getting Sandoval, the Red Sox indirectly screw themselves in the Lester sweepstakes.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Interestingly enough, it appears that the Giants may be using the money they would have spent on Sandoval to help get Lester. I think it'd be ironic if by getting Sandoval, the Red Sox indirectly screw themselves in the Lester sweepstakes.

I think Scherzer is just as good a bet, even with the extra years and dollars.

Now, if Lester takes a discount to sign with the Red Sox, just like Sandoval did? Add Hanley apparently calling the Red Sox and offering to play a position other than SS to come here and it's clear Boston's just the premier FA destination right now!

[ISiddiqui]

Well Lester already rejected Boston's "discount" offer, I think.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well Lester already rejected Boston's "discount" offer, I think.

"Discount" at this point would mean leaving more money or an extra year another team offered on the table... I just think the media would be making a huge deal out of it if the Red Sox had offered a matching deal to an Ellsbury/Lester and that player walked away.

Yasmani Tomas to the D'Backs, 6 years/$68.5 million.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Classy stuff from Billy Butler. From today's KC Star:

[sterlingice]

Very cool. I think the April game against the A's when he comes back will be very popular

SI

[claphamsa]

Oakland Athletics trade Josh Donaldson to Toronto Blue Jays - ESPN

[Vince, Pt. II]

Wow. A's obviously not afraid to make changes. Holy crap.

[Atocep]

Donaldson getting traded was a foregone conclusion. It was a good time to sell high on him because he is going to start getting expensive.

Getting Lawrie, Nolin, and Barreto is a good haul. Barreto is a long way away and is likely a 2nd baseman in the future the but the bat's potential is huge.

[stevew]

I don't understand how Ike Davis fits in Oakland. Unless they maybe need him to plunge shit out of the showers? Is Moss now a RF or is he getting traded too?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Donaldson getting traded was a foregone conclusion. It was a good time to sell high on him because he is going to start getting expensive.

Getting Lawrie, Nolin, and Barreto is a good haul. Barreto is a long way away and is likely a 2nd baseman in the future the but the bat's potential is huge.

Oakland's a contending team and he's only entering his first arb year - team's that desperate to cut payroll don't sign Billy Butler to $10 million contracts. Pretty surprising IMO, even though I really like Barreto.

It will be interesting to see if the rumored pairing with a Chase Headley signing happens. And if it adds Samardzija to the seemingly very large pool of 2015 FA pitchers that teams are shopping this winter.

[ISiddiqui]

Headley signing would definitely make it interesting. It'd move Lawrie to 2B for one. With the pitching and Barreto, it may turn out pretty nice for Beane. But they'd have to get Headley first.

[cartman]

Nelson Cruz to Seattle. I won't be surprised if his HR numbers drop off playing in that park.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cartman

Nelson Cruz to Seattle. I won't be surprised if his HR numbers drop off playing in that park.

Won't be surprised? I would go one step further. I would be shocked if they didn't drop.

[sterlingice]

He'd have to double the dose just to get up to 30 in Safeco

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Organization Of The Year: In K.C., Patience Finally Pays - BaseballAmerica.com

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

Thanks for including this. Seattle's front office has a well-earned reputation for being a pack of stooges, so it is nice to see that at least this move might have some basis in reality.

You can add selling low on Michael Saunders to that list. Another good pickup by the Blue Jays to go with their Russell Martin signing.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I was kinda hoping the Giants would go after Saunders.

[JPhillips]

Is it just me or is that a pretty shitty trade?

[DaddyTorgo]

I think Lester to the Sox is less and less likely every day.

Which I mean...in some sense I'm okay with. He's been remarkably durable aside from the cancer thing - surely he's gotta revert to the mean and spend some significant time on the DL, right?

[stevew]

I don't have insider but Olney is supposedly not voting for the HOF this year. I can only imagine how sanctimonious the article is.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Is it just me or is that a pretty shitty trade?

Makes no sense in a vacuum, only if the Mariners have a trade of a different starter for an outfielder lined up. Even then, yeah, it looks shitty. It certainly sounds like Jack Z hated him and just wanted to get rid of him.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Which I mean...in some sense I'm okay with. He's been remarkably durable aside from the cancer thing - surely he's gotta revert to the mean and spend some significant time on the DL, right?

I don't think any pitcher's a good bet to stay healthy on a long-term contract, but this isn't flipping a coin - a pitcher like Jon Lester is more likely to stay healthy than a Clay Buchholz/Francisco Liriano over any one season.

If the price tag ends up being too much for Lester/Scherzer and we fill the top of rotation slots with one year rentals I'll understand, but I do not want them to panic and feel they need to trade Mookie Betts for a Cole Hamels that is being paid market value. (Rick Porcello is the latest name popping up in the eventual Cespedes trade, and I'd be 100% on board with that unless Cueto is in play.)

[claphamsa]

Mike Mussina spent each of his 18 seasons in the most treacherous waters pitchers have ever faced, among the whitecaps of what will always be remembered as an era of rampant steroid use -- and in the offense-rich American League East, no less. He was a fly ball pitcher who called two homer-happy ballparks -- Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium -- his home during his career.

It’s as if he navigated his way daily through one of those monstrous marble-hard golf courses in Scotland covered with bunkers that have names (such as St. Andrews' Road Hole Bunker), as compared to the Executive Par-3s of 2014. In 2000, Mussina’s last season with the Orioles, 47 hitters mashed 30 or more homers; in 2014, only 11 batters reached 30 homers.

Mussina finished his career with a 3.68 ERA and is 19th all time in strikeouts. He also is 24th in WAR among pitchers, and most of the guys ahead of him on the list are in the Hall of Fame.

But his chances for induction will improve slightly this year because I’m abstaining from the voting for the first time, and won’t submit a ballot. The same is true for Curt Schilling, and Tim Raines, and at least two others who I think should be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

To repeat: I think Mussina, Schilling and Raines and others are Hall of Famers, but it’s better for their candidacy if I don’t cast a ballot.

If that sounds backward, well, that’s how the Hall of Fame voting has evolved, squeezed between rules that badly need to be updated and the progression of the candidates linked to the use of performance-enhancing drugs. The process needs to be pruned to allow voters to get back to answering a simple question about each candidate: Was his career worthy of the Hall of Fame?

When I started covering Major League Baseball, getting the opportunity to participate in the Hall of Fame voting was something to really look forward to, a nice carrot through the long days of spring training, the travel delays of the summer and extra-inning games. After being a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America for 10 years, receiving a blank Hall of Fame ballot for the first time, with voting instructions and pages of notes on each candidate also in the envelope, carried the same excitement as receiving a thick college admission letter.

So it's incredible that declining to cast a ballot is even a consideration. But in light of where we are, it seems like the right thing to do for the candidates involved, until the rules are adjusted.

For years, the rule that each writer can vote for no more than 10 candidates was probably irrelevant; it certainly was for me, given that I usually voted for anywhere from four to seven players. It's not clear why the "Rule of 10" was put in place, but I suspect it was originally designed to prevent writers from flooding their ballots with names of players who had no chance of being elected, just so they could report to their buddy that they had voted for them.

A decade ago, nobody could have anticipated the quandary that has developed because of this rule, and because of the debate surrounding the steroid-era candidates.

[+] EnlargeMark McGwire
Peter Newcomb/AFP/Getty Images
Mark McGwire received just 11 percent of the Hall of Fame votes last year.
Mark McGwire first appeared on the ballot in December 2006, five years after he retired, and he became the first real test case for what the voters would do with players either directly linked with performance-enhancing drugs or suspected of doing them.

As written in this space many times, I think all players should be judged within the context of the era in which they played, and during McGwire's career, the sport was saturated with performance-enhancing drugs, largely because over the period of about 15 years, no one within the institution of baseball -- not the union leaders, not MLB owners, not the commissioner, not the clean players, nor the media that covered the sport -- aggressively addressed the growing problem. Through that inaction, what evolved was a chemical Frankenstein of a game. Like it or not, that's what the sport was in that time: no drug testing, lots of drug use, lots of drug users, lots of money being made by everybody. (And by the way, no team, baseball executive or player has offered to give back the money made in that time.)

The idea of retroactive morality is ridiculous, especially given that the folks in the sport had a strong idea by the mid-'90s that there was a growing problem and nobody did anything about it. Here's Jose Canseco being asked about his steroid use on national television before the 1988 playoffs, right after Olympic sprinter Ben Johnson was stripped of his gold medal. And here's a Bob Nightengale story from 1995 in which then-interim commissioner Bud Selig was asked about the problem, and made mention of a "private meeting" the year before. Yet serious testing and penalties really weren't in place until 2006.

McGwire was a star during that time, with 583 homers, including his record-setting 70 homers in 1998, so I voted for him. That was a minority opinion, for sure: 23.5 percent of the 545 voters cast ballots for him, far short of the 75 percent needed for induction, but more than the 5 percent required to remain on the ballot. The McGwire test case continued, however, because his candidacy carried over to the next ballot, and so did that of Rafael Palmeiro and others, until they became stacked up like planes on a runway, their Hall of Fame situation stuck in a weird sort of purgatory.

This is how the rule that limits writers to 10 players became a serious problem. Roger Clemens became eligible, and Barry Bonds. Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza also hit the ballot, and while there is no indisputable evidence of steroid use by those two as there is for Palmeiro, who was suspended in 2005 after a positive test, a high number of voters apparently withheld votes for them because of suspicion of PED use. The career numbers for Bagwell and Piazza are overwhelmingly worthy for Hall of Fame election, but Bagwell has never finished higher than 59.6 percent in his four years on the ballot; Piazza, the all-time leader in homers for catchers, got only 57.8 percent of the vote in his first year.

So the list of serious candidates grew well beyond 10 spots. Last year I counted 17 players I thought were Hall of Fame-worthy, from Greg Maddux to Tom Glavine to Craig Biggio. But because of the Rule of 10, I had to leave off seven players who I believe are of Hall of Fame caliber. That included Mussina, Schilling and Raines. For the first time since McGwire became eligible, I didn't cast a vote for him.

The way I picked among the 17 was to rank them in order among the first nine, from the best player on down, regardless of the PED question. I also included Jack Morris, who was in his last year of eligibility; I wanted to give Morris a fair last shot with my ballot, knowing that Mussina, Raines, Schilling and Jeff Kent probably would get enough votes to stay on the ballot for this winter.

But really, that didn't seem right, because there's nothing in the voting rules that suggest I should weigh the candidates against each other, or must consider the landscape of the ballot. There is no guidance for picking 10 players from a 17-man field of worthy candidates. There is only this:
"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

The practical reality was that I wasn't deciding on whether to vote for Mussina based on career performance. My vote was predicated entirely on his standing among an extraordinary volume of candidates, from Maddux to Glavine to Bonds to Piazza to Frank Thomas. (Let's again dismiss the notion that the "character" was ever used by writers as a serious criterion for election before McGwire's name appeared on the 2007 ballot. We all know the stories about some of the racists, alleged cheats, drunkards and PED users who already are in the Hall of Fame.)

And while I think Schilling and Mussina are Hall of Fame-worthy, my ballot hurt them. My ballot counted against their percentage. Five hundred seventy-one voters cast ballots last year, and my ballot was among the 450 that didn't have Mussina included, which lowered his percentage.

That makes no sense.

The Rule of 10 seemed to factor heavily in the voting last year, dragging down the vote percentages for everyone from Morris to Clemens to Alan Trammell, whose numbers plummeted from 33.6 percent of the vote to just 20.6 percent. Clearly Trammell wasn't being judged based on his career; he lost votes last winter because of the choices made under the Rule of 10.

Maddux was a slam-dunk candidate after posting 355 career wins and four Cy Young Awards, but he was left off 16 ballots entirely. I don't know who all of those 16 were, but a couple of writers mentioned to me privately that in dealing with the confines of the ballot limit, they thought about not voting for Maddux and Glavine, knowing that they'd probably get in anyway. It would be a shame to think that Maddux lost any votes because of the Rule of 10 problem.

During the summer, the Hall of Fame adjusted some of its rules. Voters are now required to register to receive a ballot, writers can lose the right to vote, and players could remain on the ballot for a shorter period of time.

Surprisingly, however, the Rule of 10 was not altered. The same impossible math remains: I'm counting 15 worthy candidates right now for those 10 spots. Other writers are telling me they see anywhere from 12 to 20 worthy candidates, which means that in their eyes, they'll be leaving players they feel are Hall of Fame-worthy off their ballots. It means that as great as Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez were -- both should be unanimous, in light of their accomplishments -- they might lose votes as writers struggle with the question of how to deal with the ballot guideline that seems completely arbitrary. (Why not a ballot limit of 11? Why not 12? Why not eight? Why not six? Is it 10 only because it's a round number?)

Maybe I should've figured it out last year, but this puzzle cannot be solved. There's no way to judge each candidate strictly on his merits given the current ballot limitations, no fair way to vote.

I can't stand the protest ballots we've seen in the past, when someone signs a blank ballot that counts as a vote against all candidates. That's unfair. I've hated to hear the stories of voters who haven't voted for a player because they didn't like them personally. The voting shouldn't be about the writer; it should be only about the players and whether they're worthy of induction.

And I can't stand the idea of casting a ballot that works against players that I think should be inducted, such as Mussina, Schilling or others. So as much as it has been an honor in the past to participate in the voting, I'll abstain, and hope that in the future the rules change.

[stevew]

Thanks.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Makes no sense in a vacuum, only if the Mariners have a trade of a different starter for an outfielder lined up. Even then, yeah, it looks shitty. It certainly sounds like Jack Z hated him and just wanted to get rid of him.I don't think any pitcher's a good bet to stay healthy on a long-term contract, but this isn't flipping a coin - a pitcher like Jon Lester is more likely to stay healthy than a Clay Buchholz/Francisco Liriano over any one season.

If the price tag ends up being too much for Lester/Scherzer and we fill the top of rotation slots with one year rentals I'll understand, but I do not want them to panic and feel they need to trade Mookie Betts for a Cole Hamels that is being paid market value. (Rick Porcello is the latest name popping up in the eventual Cespedes trade, and I'd be 100% on board with that unless Cueto is in play.)

If they fill the top of the rotation with one year rentals aren't they just essentially punting on the season and waving the white flag before it begins?

[DaddyTorgo]

Truly epic BS there from Olney. My eyes are bleeding and I could only skim it.

[Suicane75]

I admit to having a giant man crush on Micheal Saunders, but the Blue Jays offense next year is going to be insane. Assuming health, of course.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Truly epic BS there from Olney. My eyes are bleeding and I could only skim it.

I had to tap out.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

If they fill the top of the rotation with one year rentals aren't they just essentially punting on the season and waving the white flag before it begins?

I'm not talking about signing scrap heap guys, I'm talking about trading for legit front line starters like Cueto, Latos, Samardzija, Porcello, Iwakuma, David Price, Jordan Zimmerman who will be free agents after next season.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm not talking about signing scrap heap guys, I'm talking about trading for legit front line starters like Cueto, Latos, Samardzija, Porcello, Iwakuma, David Price, Jordan Zimmerman who will be free agents after next season.

aaah okay

[MikeVic]

As with the last couple of offseasons, I am again excited about the Blue Jays going into this season. I still feel they need at least one SP, but we'll see what happens I guess.

They also signed Justin Smoak. I thought he was supposed to be some pretty good prospect a few years ago, I guess he just didn't pan out?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

They also signed Justin Smoak. I thought he was supposed to be some pretty good prospect a few years ago, I guess he just didn't pan out?

Yeah, he was supposed to be one of the top players in the 2008 draft. The Rangers got him, and he was one of the big pieces in the trade that brought Cliff Lee to Texas from Seattle. He has decent power, but seems to have a problem hitting major league pitching.

[ISiddiqui]

Sooooo... the A's traded Brandon Moss for a 2B prospect (Joey Wendle)? Ooookay... so Beane is just blowing shit up and rebuilding?

[miked]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

As with the last couple of offseasons, I am again excited about the Blue Jays going into this season. I still feel they need at least one SP, but we'll see what happens I guess.

They also signed Justin Smoak. I thought he was supposed to be some pretty good prospect a few years ago, I guess he just didn't pan out?

I won a Justin Smoak autographed baseball a few years ago at a fundraiser. Wanna buy it?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Sooooo... the A's traded Brandon Moss for a 2B prospect (Joey Wendle)? Ooookay... so Beane is just blowing shit up and rebuilding?

Has to pay for Billy Butler somehow.

[Neuqua]

Rosenthal says Lester is down to the Giants and Cubs.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Sooooo... the A's traded Brandon Moss for a 2B prospect (Joey Wendle)? Ooookay... so Beane is just blowing shit up and rebuilding?

Rebuilding... allegedly. I can buy that Ike Davis will outproduce Brandon Moss over the next 3 years, but again I don't understand how he didn't get a higher return.

Fwiw Moss has weird defensive splits - he's actually above-average in the OF while being atrocious at first base. We'll see where Cleveland plays him.

Starlin Castro and Engel Beltre are persons of interest in a nightclub shooting in the DR. Shades of Ugueth Urbina/Angel Villalona.

[BishopMVP]

Billy Beane continues to wheel and deal, with Samardzija to the White Sox for Marcus Semien + ... White Sox looking like a real challenger for the AL Central now.

Meanwhile today marks seemingly the 19th straight day baseball writers claim Jon Lester will sign somewhere tonight.

[stevew]

Do not like 3/39 for Francisco Liriano. I think it's going to be hard to recoup that amount of value, coupled with the fact that we could have just taken the pick and signed a McCarthy type instead. The pirates have done well with getting value out of reclamation projects, this seems to go against that.

[sterlingice]

And here I was about to post that I thought 3/$39 for Liriano was perfectly reasonable

SI

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And here I was about to post that I thought 3/$39 for Liriano was perfectly reasonable

SI

A sandwich pick is worth about 7M in value or so on average so that inflates the value of the contract. He's been pretty injured, I just think we will struggle to get value. Would have been fine with 1/15 if he just took the QO.

[ISiddiqui]

Interesting fangraphs article on the A's:

The A’s Are Just Doing What the A’s Have to Do | FanGraphs Baseball

The A’s were running out of long-term pieces. Beane himself said he saw a team in decline. It’s the one downside of years of success — success makes it harder to think about the long-term. What the A’s are trying to do, and what they’re mostly pulling off, is balancing the short-term evenly against the long-term. Maybe they went too far in one direction with the first Samardzija trade. Maybe they went too far in the other direction with the Donaldson trade. But think about your impression of the current A’s, and then look at the projected WAR.

Right now, in the American League, the 2015 A’s are in the middle of the pack. They’re about on par with the Indians and Rays. They’re absolutely not a great team, but they’re absolutely not a bad team. Maybe you figure the depth charts aren’t right. Maybe you figure the projections are too high on Brett Lawrie. But the actual important point is, the A’s haven’t stripped down to nothing. There’s still a mostly competitive ballclub here. The A’s project better than the White Sox. By a decent margin, actually. What’s skewing things is the direction the teams are going in. The White Sox are prioritizing 2015 more, and the A’s are prioritizing 2015 less, and given what we understand about the win curve that seems like the wrong move for Oakland. Additional wins are more valuable, and all that. But this is the reality of a team without money.

[stevew]

Moss vs Davis/platoon partner + piece from Cle could be interesting. Davis costs 3M or so less at least and has 1 extra year of control. They may get a solid bounce back and get similar production to 2014 Moss. Or Davis may just totally suck. Hard to say.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Neuqua

Rosenthal says Lester is down to the Giants and Cubs.

Giants are out now.

[stevew]

lester to the cubs for 6/155

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

lester to the cubs for 6/155

Finally! Reportedly the Sox last offer was 6/135. Cubs offer also has a vesting option for a 7th year.

Action should go fast on the Shields/McCarthy/Maeda/Masterson type guys now. Still not sure when Boras will really start fielding offers for Scherzer.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Finally! Reportedly the Sox last offer was 6/135. Cubs offer also has a vesting option for a 7th year.

Action should go fast on the Shields/McCarthy/Maeda/Masterson type guys now. Still not sure when Boras will really start fielding offers for Scherzer.

If the Sox last offer was 6/135 then they were never really "in" it IMO.

[ISiddiqui]

So the Cubs re-signed Hammel and signed Lester. Those are added to their signing of Miguel Montero. Should be a very interesting year in Wrigley.

[JPhillips]

The NL Central is going to be brutal. The Reds might be the worst team and if they are healthy they could win 88-90 games with their pitching.