WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I mean, maybe they're bing cautious, but it seems odd the wolves would have not one but two kills last night, and they didn't use either one to try to take out the seer.

Although if Bug is who he says he is, that's pretty strong evidence the wolves have not corrupted the Sheriff. If they still have to fear the Sheriff, then they avoid Bug the seer.

That is if Bug was indeed protected, which I think it was mistake to protect if it happened. A seer is nice, but who knows if his scans were good or he is even the seer. Additionally, he can survive and the wolves still win, the exorcist and minister survive, wolves lose.

[The Jackal]

Well but if he is the seer he's going to keep scanning people and by the end of the game we'll know if he was good or not and a COT like that is tough to overcome.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize it could just be for flavor, but does anyone else wonder why CF was buried?

dzilla died the way we expect it from wolves, ugly and messy. And that conforms with what we have seen so far from nightkills, too.

Now, CF died violently, too (snapped neck), but buried in a cemetary? Why would the wolves do that?

I can only think of a handful reasons someone would bury them in a cemetary. Now, the cemetary is just flavor, yes, but it could be Abe wrote it up that way because of who killed CF. So in that way, it could be an indicator that CF was indeed a villager kill. I can't remember right now if there is a villager role with a one time NK ability, but certainly it's possible in a complicated game that that possibility exists. Take into consideration all of the items we have, too, with unknown uses, and this is definitely something to think about, IMO.

The cemetary indicates to me 1) Guilt (the killer felt guilt and buried CF to absolve himself a little; wolves don't feel guilt); 2) Christian/God-fearing (with Ministers and Exorcists, it seems the Lightbringers are by and large God-fearing; Christian burial migth have been the "right" thing to do; wolves wouldn't bother); and 3) burial might protect against the undead (killer might have hoped a burial in a Christian cemetary would stop the person from being resurrected for evil ends or for becoming undead; again, wolves ARE the undead, they won't fear the undead).

So that's three possible reasons why CF might have been a villager kill. Or Abe added some flavor and it means nothing.

I can see it being a villager kill for this reason, but I looked at the roles after the death, the only things I saw were Martyr, and Keeper of the Flame. However neither fit as a night kill or the description of what happened.

Additionally reading this post I got to thinking about the life giver. If you are in this game, DZ might be the person to bring back.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Crimson does seem an odd choice-dubb was going to be coming after him today, so would have been an easy lynch target for the wolves. Maybe they just want to take out the "noisier" players? Dubb can you shed any light on CF's death?

I'm holding my vote until later in the day unless EF comes in and wants to clarify his vote.

I also passed an item last night that I had held since day 1. I will not say who I passed it to and I don't want the person I passed it to to admit it yet in the off case it is a powerful item. I know little about it so now that it is gone I think we should talk about it publicly that way the new owner can get some sense of what it might be able to do.

The item was "Lantern of Substance." I asked Abe on D2 if I could use it and he said it is more of a passive item. Any clue what this item could do?

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, I didn't remember a villager role with the ability. I kinda thought this might be the work of some sort of item.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

hoops is the only player who has passed me something, a baseball bat. There are other ways to acquire items besides passing and nigth kill.

BTW, I started with a baseball bat (so I had two after hoops passed me his).

Wait, what? What other way is there to get an item?

[J23]

Vote Narcizo

I still think Bug is likely converted and Narc could be good, but I really don't want to risk the seer on that feeling.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Believe me I'm not discounting the idea that bug is lying, that would suck though. Was a great start to the game for us but if we aren't getting any seer clears and there are converts, gonna be a tough finish.

The problem is he doesn't really clear anyone. Any or all of the people he has said are good can now be bad because of conversion or he got an incorrect reading to begin with. I'm starting to think I'd rather vote Bug today to end this debate once and for all getting a good voting history to review over the weekend and also let the sheriff protect McKerney, or who ever announced as the Minister. Otherwise maybe CR or who ever else Bug scanned to see what his scans are really telling us, but preferably Bug.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wait, what? What other way is there to get an item?

Is Chief saying he's the scientist here?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm holding my vote until later in the day unless EF comes in and wants to clarify his vote.

I also passed an item last night that I had held since day 1. I will not say who I passed it to and I don't want the person I passed it to to admit it yet in the off case it is a powerful item. I know little about it so now that it is gone I think we should talk about it publicly that way the new owner can get some sense of what it might be able to do.

The item was "Lantern of Substance." I asked Abe on D2 if I could use it and he said it is more of a passive item. Any clue what this item could do?

Well, assuming a lanteran of substance provides "substance", it must fight against a "lack of substance". So perhaps it protects against noncorporeal spirits? Or perhaps is a one time save from a kill (a fall into a "lack of substance", depending on your perspective)?

Or perhaps, as a lantern, it sheds light on things that lack substance. So it could uncover noncorporeal spirits (i.e. Servants of the Dead maybe). But if it is a passive item, this is probably not the case.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Is Chief saying he's the scientist here?

Yes, I am the Scientist. Good pull, mckerney.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

Vote Narcizo

I still think Bug is likely converted and Narc could be good, but I really don't want to risk the seer on that feeling.

Yeah I can't figure why a corrupt Bug would point a finger at Narc, unless he thinks Narc has a role, maybe. But it seems like a bold play. If Bug had only pulled it before he got fingered as corrupt, I would feel a lot stronger about it. But now you can interpret it as a save-his-ass move.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

For a day. Once the item is out of their control, it can be passed around on subsequent nights, no control of where it goes. And if it protects the holder, then wolves have even less ability to take back that item.

Yes, but all it takes in a NK to get the items back. That is if they are useful to begin with.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, I am the Scientist. Good pull, mckerney.

Oh, man, of course. I had forgotten about the gadget roles. I was just looking at that this morning too, but I was thinking maybe they weren't in the game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Yes, but all it takes in a NK to get the items back. That is if they are useful to begin with.

A baseball bat is likely to be a protective item. Why would you pass a protective item to someone and then attempt to NK them?

[Autumn]

Clearly you gave the hints we needed, Chief, yeah. I was just being dense. Do you have control over what you invent, or clues as to what they do?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm starting to think I'd rather vote Bug today to end this debate once and for all getting a good voting history to review over the weekend and also let the sheriff protect McKerney, or who ever announced as the Minister. Otherwise maybe CR or who ever else Bug scanned to see what his scans are really telling us, but preferably Bug.

Well CR just revealed as the scientist so I won't be voting for him. But I really don't think we should start by voting out the seer, any further scans he's able to get helps, you take the risk of him "clearing" someone that is unscannable for him to find a wolf like he may have last night. We test bug by voting either EF or Narc today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem is he doesn't really clear anyone. Any or all of the people he has said are good can now be bad because of conversion or he got an incorrect reading to begin with. I'm starting to think I'd rather vote Bug today to end this debate once and for all getting a good voting history to review over the weekend and also let the sheriff protect McKerney, or who ever announced as the Minister. Otherwise maybe CR or who ever else Bug scanned to see what his scans are really telling us, but preferably Bug.

But killing Bug won't make anything any clearer. As you said his scans could have been converted already. I suppose we could then guess who he might have lied about. But lynching Narc provides the same data. And unless Narc has an important role, at less cost. Unless we think Bug is offering up a wolf, which would be a crazy move.

[The Jackal]

And as for bug's other scans (me and mau), we're obviously not 100% in the clear if bug is telling the truth. But if he's hit a wolf in Narc and has a chance at hitting more with each scan, it's worth keeping him around.

[The Jackal]

C'mon EF, you can't just leave us hanging with a phrase like "I found a convert" when there is no role that I can see that has that ability, and you don't link it to an item, hidden ability, or anything. Sketchy when you knew you'd be on the block today to begin with, and hurting our ability to make a good decision here.

[Chief Rum]

I started with a baseball bat as my opening item. As the Scientist, I have the ability to create items. Keep in mind, we started with 24 items in this game, assuming everyone had one. So this is not as powerful as you might think.

On Night One, I was unfortunately sick (as was well documented) and was not able to get a night action in, so I did not create an item. I was however passed a baseball bat, and it's pretty clear from discussion that that was from hoopsguy.

On Night Two, I made my first item. It was the sprig of holley I passed to Commo.

On Nights Three and Four, I made two new items which I still have in my possession, and I believe they are the more powerful. They are why I am pretty well protected from wolves the next couple nights, besides the bat. For now, I am keeping those items a secret, and we can see if the wolves want to waste a NK attempt on me for a couple nights.

I passed one of the bats to Thomkal last night, and the holly to Commo. I attempted to move an item to CF, but of course, it was not able to be delivered.

I attempted to pass a bat to Lathum on Night Two and Danny on Night Three, but their NKs prevented delivery.

[The Jackal]

What does the sprig of holley do, was that discussed before?

[J23]

Btw, Abe accepts conditional item passes. The item I passed a couple nights ago was going to go to Danny before he was NK'd, so it went to the backup I had listed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Clearly you gave the hints we needed, Chief, yeah. I was just being dense. Do you have control over what you invent, or clues as to what they do?

I was told that inventing is sometimes rather unfocused, more or less, which suggests that I don't have much control over what I can make. That said, I have not tried a specific request. I have only asked to Make "a Gadget" and waited to see what came of it.

I am only told what the item is, not what it does.

[The Jackal]

Alright, that makes sense. Lunchtime for me, back later.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Autumn

How do you expect they will kill you? And if you claimed a fake scan, you think the wolves would think you're somehow on their side?

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly if you had come out saying you scanned Narcizo good I'd be tempted to vote you. That's the sort of scan a fake seer comes out with. At least this way we can test your scan and your allegiance.

I was trying to think of all the possibilities and while I think I would have been left alone another day, I dont think revealing that I lied about a scan would be too endearing to you guys. Especially when I still seem to be in the cross-hairs of a few people. I also think had I lied about Narizco, the wolves would have killed me, I would have been verified as to who I was, and he gets a free pass.

I'm not going to lie though. I'm curious as to why EF came out as a Seer. It's obviously a risk, despite there being the chance for two Seers (Or Seer-like?) in the game. I also wonder if there is an item that blocks scans. A few people have seemed to be trying too hard to get me to scan them and this move would certainly be a way to focus on my scan on a particular person.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by J23

Btw, Abe accepts conditional item passes. The item I passed a couple nights ago was going to go to Danny before he was NK'd, so it went to the backup I had listed.

Good point. Forehead slap moment. I should have thought to do that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What does the sprig of holley do, was that discussed before?

I threw out some ideas on the last page. But I have no real idea.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, I am the Scientist. Good pull, mckerney.

Dun Dun Dun

[Chief Rum]

I am also going to lunch now. I'll be back in about a half hour.

[mckerney]

Vote Narcizo

I still think that MrBug is more likely to be telling the truth here. EF was a likely lynch candidate after yesterday and already had the vote lead, claiming a scan is a likely desperation move to make in that situation in hopes to both buy one more day and have us do the work of killing the seer. Bug could obviously be lying too, but what decides it for me is that there's more risk in lynching Bug today in that we'd be doing the wolves a favor in killing the seer for them.

I could also see EF being a wolf and Bug being converted last night with the two of them hoping that we'd lynch a villager Bug lead us to in Narc today, then lynching Bug tomorrow. EF comes out looking good from it without losing much because the longer Bug stays around the more suspicious we become of him even if EF doesn't claim he's a convert. Something to consider if things do come back Narcizo villager/Bug convert, but for now I'd rather hope that we can trust Bug's scan.

[MrBug708]

I would imagine Holley (Holly?) is used as some kind of truth or protection mechanism

[Autumn]

Well, if Chief is good, and so far I buy his reveal, then that means EF is likely bad just based on that itself. Hard to believe there were no wolves at all on Thomkal. Although I guess it's nearly as odd that there would be only one. Time to look back at timing and scans and see if maybe one of those semi-cleared people might have been converted at that point.

Combine that with a strange reveal, and I'm fairly certain he's bad. It seems a bit too good to believe that we'd catch two bad guys on the same day. If Chief is Good and EF bad, yesterday's vote should tell us something.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Combine that with a strange reveal, and I'm fairly certain he's bad. It seems a bit too good to believe that we'd catch two bad guys on the same day. If Chief is Good and EF bad, yesterday's vote should tell us something.

Any consideration to voting EF today then? I think I'd prefer to leave my vote on Narcizo, though as I said even if Narc comes back as good and Bug bad I still don't think EF is cleared in that situation.

[SnDvls]

still my same vote from yesterday

vote eaglefan

he's one of just a few I don't have cleared/rolled

[J23]

I'm leaving my vote on Narc, hoping that I'll hear more from EF later today when he has some time.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm leaving my vote on Narc, hoping that I'll hear more from EF later today when he has some time.

I definitely want to hear his explanation on the scan for converted, as it seems like it has to be a Lightbringer role that isn't listed or an item.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'm not going to lie though. I'm curious as to why EF came out as a Seer. It's obviously a risk, despite there being the chance for two Seers (Or Seer-like?) in the game.

I'm expecting him to say he had an item that let him make a scan for a convert.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm expecting him to say he had an item that let him make a scan for a convert.

If he's a wolf, I would expect them to make a run at me tonight for conversion

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not much time here as I am heading out, only a couple minutes to check in but very good news. I found a convert last night. Sorry fo being unavailable for much of the game but glad that I finally can contribute.

I am tied up most of the day preparing for my daughter's birthday party this weekend and then I have poker tonight. I will try to check in when possible.


vote mrbug

Yes, this is very interesting, and I still think quite possible.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

If I'm a convert...I'm unaware of it

But I scanned Narizco last night

Originally Posted by MrBug708

vote narizco

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why did you scan Narcizo, Bug? I would have thought Chief and EF would be obvious scans.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I also won't lie...I thought about saying narizco was good and that would have bought me another day IMO. I don't think I survive tonight's action sadly.

So you think about lying, what good does that do? Then you said something about waiting to reveal until you got your first vote. What I think is happening here is this. Narc is probably a wolf. That buys you trust, but you were thinking about lying because well, it helps to keep your wolf buddies alive. You realized however that if we lynch him and he is a wolf we probably keep you alive and this gets you all the trust you need to stay alive for the near future. As others stated, why Narc though? I'll have to go back and check, but at no point do I recall you ever suspecting him as a wolf. It does help though to out a fellow wolf with a bad voting record, limited availability, and a target as it is to gain trust. This may buy you today, but I really am not sold on you.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And as for bug's other scans (me and mau), we're obviously not 100% in the clear if bug is telling the truth. But if he's hit a wolf in Narc and has a chance at hitting more with each scan, it's worth keeping him around.

To me if it does come up as Bug becoming a wolf you are the next person I lynch. I'm strongly recommending again that Bug be left out to dry. The wolves need to lynch the minister and he has already come out, the seer, not so much.

Vote Narc

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

So you think about lying, what good does that do? Then you said something about waiting to reveal until you got your first vote. What I think is happening here is this. Narc is probably a wolf. That buys you trust, but you were thinking about lying because well, it helps to keep your wolf buddies alive. You realized however that if we lynch him and he is a wolf we probably keep you alive and this gets you all the trust you need to stay alive for the near future. As others stated, why Narc though? I'll have to go back and check, but at no point do I recall you ever suspecting him as a wolf. It does help though to out a fellow wolf with a bad voting record, limited availability, and a target as it is to gain trust. This may buy you today, but I really am not sold on you.

So, even if I throw out an off the wall name like Narizco, and is a wolf, you STILL won't believe that I am good? Or that I have been anything BUT a convert from day 1?

What's the angle I'm missing?

To me if it does come up as Bug becoming a wolf you are the next person I lynch. I'm strongly recommending again that Bug be left out to dry. The wolves need to lynch the minister and he has already come out, the seer, not so much.

When Narizco is lynched, I would imagine the wolves won't be too happy with me

[mckerney]

Bug has no reason to give us a wolf if he was converted. If he's alive in two days he'll still probably get lynched even if he gives us a wolf today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

If he's a wolf, I would expect them to make a run at me tonight for conversion

I would have expected them to make a run at you every night since you revealed.

[Grammaticus]

Just to add to the sprig of holly discussion. I started the game with a sprig of holly and passed it to Dzilla on night two after he revealed as the Exorcist. I had hoped it provided some type of protection. Not sure if it did or not. But it obviously did not help him last night.

At this point I’m probably going to go with Bug and vote Narc.

Vote Narc

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

So you think about lying, what good does that do? Then you said something about waiting to reveal until you got your first vote.

Yeah that doesn't seem like a good explanation to me. Waiting to reveal a scan until you get votes ... why would you do that unless you wanted to use your scan to defend yourself? I can't figure out why Narc, in that case, but I also can't figure out why the seer would be holding onto a scan for defensive purposes.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would have expected them to make a run at you every night since you revealed.

It's not like there has been a lot of nights since my reveal though either

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah that doesn't seem like a good explanation to me. Waiting to reveal a scan until you get votes ... why would you do that unless you wanted to use your scan to defend yourself? I can't figure out why Narc, in that case, but I also can't figure out why the seer would be holding onto a scan for defensive purposes.

I would have liked to have seen where early votes went on and who cast them. It might not be the best course of action, but what do we learn when I announce my scan at 1130pm last night and everyone votes with me? Wasted day of voting.

It did lure out EF into make a proclamation, even if it was about me in a role that I already am. I will admit that I didn't think that would happen and in that exact scenario, but that is hindsight now

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

It's not like there has been a lot of nights since my reveal though either

Seems like a long time ;-) WAht day did you reveal? It's two nights, right?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I would have liked to have seen where early votes went on and who cast them. It might not be the best course of action, but what do we learn when I announce my scan at 1130pm last night and everyone votes with me? Wasted day of voting.

It did lure out EF into make a proclamation, even if it was about me in a role that I already am. I will admit that I didn't think that would happen and in that exact scenario, but that is hindsight now

Luring out votes makes sense, and what i would expect. But what did you mean you were waiting until you got a vote?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

So, even if I throw out an off the wall name like Narizco, and is a wolf, you STILL won't believe that I am good? Or that I have been anything BUT a convert from day 1?

What's the angle I'm missing?

When Narizco is lynched, I would imagine the wolves won't be too happy with me

I still am not 100% sold. You said you were pondering lying about it, that is ludicrous. Not to mention if you are a wolf it greatly helps out your case.

Originally Posted by mckerney

Bug has no reason to give us a wolf if he was converted. If he's alive in two days he'll still probably get lynched even if he gives us a wolf today.

I'm not sure if we lynch him though, I kind of want to to end speculation and get a voting history for who voted for him and who not. I'm curious though why I've mentioned you being the minister and BGing you at night, but you have not corrected me. I just went back to see who was the minister and I misread that you were the Martyr and we were speculating a minister was in the game. That changes everything for who to BG, the obvious choice that DZ is dead now is Bug.