Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Sorry Chas, I'm in the Buckeye State but pretty far away from the queen city. Maybe next time.

[QuikSand]

So, let's peruse the Baltimore roster...


Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Alfonso, Cary           102 QB          5    40               40               ---    
Cote, Levon             104 QB          13   29               29               1 yr.  

So, maybe we have nothing to work with here? Alfonso hasb;t come close to cracking a passer rating of 90... we have to be able to improve on that, right? Right?

Or do we roll with him, and pay him the...uhhh... $50m he thinks he's worth now?

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Cooper, Edgar           224 RB          4    36               36               ---    
Machado, Cristian       223 RB          2    27               36               ---    
Murray, K.C.            236 RB          8    34               34               ---    
Gantry, Devin           234 RB          3    33               33               ---    
Spaulding, Amari        338 FB          9    27               27               ---    

Notice the contract column. Noooo commitments! BUt seriously, Cooper is a chem leader and nothing more, Murray is a KR/ST guy, and Spaulding is jury chem/coh at this point.

Machado gave us 3.96 ypc, Gantry 3.85. Nothing we can't replace, but we have them as fallback options if the draft/FA stinks.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Buhlmann, Ronald        440 TE          7    53               53               3 yrs. 
Turnbull, Derek         481 TE          8    38               38               1 yr.  
Meadows, Britt          437 TE          8    35               35               3 yrs. 

So, Buhlmann looks okay here, but he's got his bars in the wrong places. Oooh blocking strength, wow, great. He's got solid RR but not the complementary stuff I like, so... $25m is VERY cut-friendly, let's say.

Turnbull is a useful run-blocking, special-teamer, who's now a major cohesion asset too. Meadows similar to Buhlmann, but with a void at run blocking.

An early-ish pick here, or a major FA target if there's someone suitable, would make a lot of sense for us.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Jefferson, Peter        585 FL          8    49               49               1 yr.  
Strickland, Phil        518 FL          9    37               37               ---    
Douglas, Matt           529 FL          11   35               35               1 yr.  
Hampton, Fernando       512 FL          8    34               34               1 yr.  
Perez, Drew             589 FL          8    27               27               ---    
Michl, Mitch            517 FL          2    18               21               ---    
Jackson, Alec           580 FL          12   11               11               ---    
Maxfield, Marvin        584 SE          3    54               54               2 yrs. 

Okay, what do we have here? HOW DID THIS TEAM MAKE THE BOWL? Maxfield is our top rated guy, he's basically all RR and that's good enough I guess, though 6.3 ypt isn't anything to shout about, of course. Peter Jefferson, also mostly RR, did the heavy lifting but he too was below 1,000 yards.

As always... this team really needs help at WR. We have cap space... maybe a trade? Big splash free agent? Need to look everywhere.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Singleton, Rondell      664 C           3    44               67               2 yrs. 
Miranda, Marlon         663 C           6    48               48               3 yrs. 
Nichols, Chase          669 C           11   0                0                1 yr.  
Billig, Bryant          776 LG          4    70               70               1 yr.  
Willis, Lewis           775 RG          7    61               61               2 yrs. 
Lugar, Rodolfo          861 LT          6    63               63               1 yr.  
Morris, Cristian        865 RT          4    57               57               1 yr.  

Oo, this group is in good shape. Nichols returns as the uber chem leader. Guards are really good, tackles are pass protectors, and Singleton edged out Miranda to take the C job for now. Happy here, but never closed to improvements.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Hoffman, John           909 P           3    68               68               2 yrs. 
McWaters, Thurman       1003K           13   40               40               ---    

McWaters has been on and off our roster his whole career... we'll look for a long temr answer there.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Cowdrick, Denzel        1197LDE         5    78               78               3 yrs. 
Carr, Trenton           1198LDE         3    38               42               2 yrs. 
Emerson, Carlos         1149LDE         2    27               33               1 yr.  
Manning, Oscar          1192RDE         8    72               72               1 yr.  
Burns, Casey            1196RDE         5    58               58               ---    
Andrews, Bart           1194RDE         12   24               24               1 yr.  
Perreault, Charlie      1299NT          7    66               66               2 yrs. 
Norris, Donte           1293NT          9    42               42               1 yr.  
Cady, Sawyer            1295NT          8    28               28               2 yrs. 

We extended Cowdrick, he's very solid but not a spectacular pass rusher. Burns is also a run blocker mainly, that's why I didn't extend him for big money. We need pressure. Manning is the main guy. We want some more pieces around them.

Perreault and Norris have the NT job sewn up, Cady is a chem/coh/ST guy still clinging to relevance after four straight offseason bubbles.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Rodgers, Scottie        1357SILB        6    50               50               3 yrs. 
Pringley, Howie         1359SILB        10   46               46               ---    
Somogyi, Silas          1355WILB        10   44               44               1 yr.  
Patton, Dakota          1415SLB         10   69               69               ---    
Mohammed, Sebastian     1452SLB         4    64               64               1 yr.  
Barker, Brad            1491WLB         2    30               42               1 yr.  

Not deep, but solid. Patton is aging but we are probably willing to bid to retain him. Mohammed is a really good run stopper, with decent complementary skills, long term asset. Rodgers is great in coverage, and I love that. As is often the case, we will be actively looking here.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct
Hughes, Elias           1530LCB         4    40               40               2 yrs. 
Hill, Elliot            1522LCB         3    27               27               2 yrs. 
Crews, Jorge            1526RCB         5    44               44               1 yr.  
Lucky, Tom              1639SS          10   52               52               1 yr.  
Alcott, Griffin         1641SS          2    36               43               1 yr.  
Renes, Alfredo          1643SS          10   35               35               1 yr.  
de Leon, Branden        1633FS          10   34               34               1 yr.  
Ellingsen, Steven       1628FS          13   16               16               ---    

Lucky is solid and our chem leader, I like him. Our former undrafted rookies were nice stories, but as CB1 and CB2, are a bit uninspiring. He are used to having major talent here, not so much right now.

One veteran addition seems in order, and maybe an early draft pick also when there's squat at WR/TE.

[code]
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.

Players Under Contract: 36
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 36

Salary Cap: $814,500,000
Cap Room: $304,970,000
Maximum for New Player: $242,770,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $1,800,000

Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $233,360,000


Lots of cap space. Lots of work to do. Not lots of energy to get really really deep, I fear. We'll see.

[QuikSand]

For the Ravens... kinda tough to decide what to do about a semi-attractive free agent toward the end of his career. Do I really want to be signing up a 9th or 10th year DB to give me two years, just so we can go 9-7 instead of 8-8? (Yes, I realize we just came off a bowl run, still...)

[QuikSand]

So, the WFT... well, WTF. Heh.

Last year I made a reckless and premature decision to start an OL overhaul but releasing our best OT and new (bad) chem leader. The plan will be to mesh that group into the Groups 7-8-11 triad, in which my other two offensive groups reside. But getting there means a major loss in both talent and cohesion amidst the change. That will continue this season.

So, do we re-sign poor Rod Swift, or just move on? I suspect I have fouled up the OL badly enough to say this is a lost cause year. We will likely draft a couple guys, and in a couple seasons will be back toward average, and hopefully the chem/cohesion will get us back to high-end production. But not now. And without those intangibles, really hard to get the offense to really "click" the way I want.

Also on a chem/talent note... there's a flawed by pretty good WR out there in free agency, but he's in Group 7 and I am hoping/expecting to shift my chem leadership there before too long. A fat contract to the new guy, meaning he'd become a zero chem contributor, would be an impediment toward that forecasted move. So, do we push in, play it safe, or skip it? (I will be bidding, but duration and severity are the unknowns) Stay tuned.

[QuikSand]

Okay, the WFT line rebuild starts, in earnest, right here:




Washington: KickStand takes T Leon Kariya with the 1.7 pick.

Run Blocking		56<->88
Pass Blocking		66<->98
Blocking Strength		13<->44
Endurance		69<->100

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
76	301	6.0	6.6	4.98	43	26	7.50	110	-	29

Left tackle, early in the draft, hopefully just keep him forever. That's the way.

[QuikSand]

So, BAL trades up, trades down, and ends up with two first rounders... one guy I presumed was out of reach, and another guy we expected was going to be our pick at 1.15. I'm pleased, on the surface, with the deals... we ended up down one second rounder, bascially, in the entire swap:




Jacksonville: finkellll takes T Javier La Rosa with the 1.9 pick.

Run Blocking		68<->99
Pass Blocking		62<->94
Blocking Strength		68<->99
Endurance		38<->69

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
77	318	6.8	7.5	5.11	41	38	7.52	96	-	52

(he picked my player, but we've since agreed to the deal)




Baltimore: QuikSand takes RB Richard Sellers with the 1.27 pick.

Breakaway Speed		70<->99
Power Inside		41<->70
Third Down Running		70<->100
Hole Recognition		36<->65
Elusiveness		45<->74
Speed to Outside		71<->100
Blitz Pickup		0<->29
Avoid Drops		44<->73
Getting Downfield		54<->83
Route Running		66<->95
Third Down Catching		54<->83
Punt Returning		0<->29
Kick Returning		0<->29
Endurance		71<->100
Special Teams		71<->100

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
70	206	5.0	5.3	-	23	-	-	-	24	33

So, not sure what this guy will actually DO, but we're thin at both RB and WR. In a keep-my-interest world, I'd love to find a Travis Etienne style role for him - 100 carries and 100 targets. I'd love to have him just be a "weapon" so to speak. Not sure the path do doing this in FOF, but at 206 lbs, a pure switch out to WR is definitely in play, especially if that Hole Rec bar looks disappointing.

[QuikSand]

Also in Baltimore news:

Baltimore Ravens

QuikSand

SE Frankie Blouir

3 years, $183,000,000 (Bonus: $159.0M. Salary: $8.0M, $8.0M, $8.0M.)

67

67

[QuikSand]

When the Ravens are on the clock again in the late 2nd, I have that classic conundrum... I like two guys a bit, and would like to get them both with my next two selections. I roll the dice, and take the RB my staff graded out as "underrated" and who has the combines to back that up. Given our paltry production at RB of late, even if we end up doubling down here I'm ok with that, if it helps to lead to this team becoming more effective on the ground. I don't often say that, but... here we are, it seems.




Baltimore: QuikSand takes RB Vince Hines with the 2.27 pick.

Breakaway Speed		14<->43
Power Inside		41<->70
Third Down Running		27<->56
Hole Recognition		70<->99
Elusiveness		29<->59
Speed to Outside		54<->84
Blitz Pickup		13<->42
Avoid Drops		42<->72
Getting Downfield		0<->29
Route Running		0<->29
Third Down Catching		39<->69
Punt Returning		0<->29
Kick Returning		0<->29
Endurance		29<->58
Special Teams		20<->49

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
72	226	5.7	6.0	4.52	32	19	7.20	128	16	52

Even if he turns out to be a one-bar-wonder... at least it's a good bar, right?


We'll see if the ploy works, and i still get my 1B target in the mid-3rd. Ravens have a ton of picks remaining, so I'm trying to take this draft seriously.

[QuikSand]

Cross-posting here, linking to a "Great Debate" discussion about Play Diagnosis, a key rating for the early-3rd round pick from the WFT (after selecting two offensive tackles):

FOF Great Debate III: Ignore Play Diagnosis - Front Office Football Central

Trying to keep things interesting here.

[Chas in Cinti]

This is the most excited I've perceived you for a draft in a bit... but maybe that's just because you've found some potential matches that are a bit better than usual...

[QuikSand]

Yes, I am trying to re-engage. Having a ton of picks in BAL has helped.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

When the Ravens are on the clock again in the late 2nd, I have that classic conundrum... I like two guys a bit, and would like to get them both with my next two selections. I roll the dice, and take the RB my staff graded out as "underrated" and who has the combines to back that up.

We'll see if the ploy works, and i still get my 1B target in the mid-3rd. Ravens have a ton of picks remaining, so I'm trying to take this draft seriously.

Well, the good news is, my guy fell to our next pick.

The not as good news...




Baltimore: QuikSand takes WR Branden Welch with the 3.15 pick.

Avoid Drops		50<->79
Getting Downfield		52<->81
Route Running		61<->91
Third Down Catching		0<->29
Big-Play Receiving		16<->46
Courage		0<->29
Adjust to Ball		40<->69
Punt Returning		0<->29
Kick Returning		0<->29
Endurance		35<->65
Special Teams		56<->85

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
72	199	4.8	5.0	4.46	27	7	7.04	105	53	43

This view is way less exciting than my own scout's, so we will temper enthusiasm now...

[QuikSand]

So, I managed to trade around in the draft three times, and converted a simple double-draft into a more compressed package of picks, plus one extra 4th rounder next season.

Here's the batch, as the draft is still ongoing but the Ravens are done:

Pick	Team	Team GM	Change Team	Name	Pos	School
1 - 9 (9)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Javier La Rosa	T	Georgia
1 - 27 (27)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Richard Sellers	RB	Kansas
2 - 27 (59)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Vince Hines	RB	Wayne State (Mich.)
3 - 15 (79)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Branden Welch	WR	Northwestern
3 - 31 (95)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Bubba Henderson	DT	Colorado
4 - 12 (108)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Sawyer Caldwell	T	Vanderbilt
4 - 15 (111)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Trevor Henson	TE	Miami Florida
4 - 31 (127)	Baltimore * (5 min)	QuikSand (online)		Justics Hallock	CB	West Virginia

I know the links won't mean much to you, but here's my hope for each pick... as I try to re-immerse and dig into this a bit more:

1.9 T La Rosa ought to be an anchor...have been using pass blockers for a while, he ought to be the complete package LT

1.27 RB Sellers has the skills/weight to convert to WR and I will look at that, or possibly fiddle with a hybrid role just for kicks (collapse candidate though)

2.27 RB Hines is a workout warrior with decent ratings and scout UR recommendation, likely needs a bump to be worth the early-ish pick, we'll hold out hope

3.15 WR Welch should be a WR3/4/5 caliber guy with special teams and possibly high RR bar, I can squeeze value out of that, if true

3.31 DT Henderson is one-skill, but it's run-stopping, so in a base D setup he could earn starts and play a long time, esp if his ST bar is legit

4.12 LT Caldwell looks like an even-bars guy I'd likely play at G, we'll see

4.15 TE Henson has a mix of bars i like (max GD and Courage) so i reached... track record is weak making this move, to be honest

4.31 CB Hallock is a mixed-bars guy who might bump a bit and fit in long term as a rotation CB2 (bump guy, no zone) and ST/KR possible

[QuikSand]

Ravens, through stage 7 of free agency (when a fair bit of the dust tends to settle), here's the roster math:

42 players signed
08 draft picks incoming
08 free agents w lead offers
---
58 tentatively in hand

That's about right for me. A few "have a look" guys in that mix, here and there, including (for now) a high-rated kicker on a big but cut-friendly deal.

[QuikSand]

For the WFT, a less eventful offseason thus far (other than signing a big money receiver, which I guess makes it a big offseason), but a few things worth noting:

WILB Conner Harding	FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 3yrs, $30,440,000.
LS Jeremy Ellis	FA Stage 1	signed to a new contract: 3yrs, $11,750,000.
QB Myles Thornton	FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 3yrs, $16,500,000.
FB Dale Fau	FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 4yrs, $24,010,000.
FL Andy Craven	FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 3yrs, $17,140,000.
SE Jimmie Quackenbush	FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 2yrs, $11,860,000.
SE Dillon Fuller	FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Minnesota: 5yrs, $385,000,000.
FS Hugh Farrell	FA Stage 6	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $15,000,000.
SLB Sammy Figurelle	FA Stage 7	turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $7,200,000.

Losing out on LB Figurelle is disappointing, but it happens. I mostly just assume nobody wants my older chem/cohesion guys, but AVAILABLE is sneaky sometimes, that way. My bad.

That will leave us a bit thin at LB - literally only four guys on the roster right now, at all. Cranwell and Harding are both run stoppers and good for the base D, but less than ideal for pass situations. Flannery is the all-purpose guy and should get full time Sam duty this season. Kieta is a good enough starter at the Will. So, this isn't awful, for a zero-injury league.

Our 3rd round DE looks increasingly like a candidate to either position-switch to OLB, or maybe just play some there out of position. And our 4th rounder is a coverage-first LB who probably can squeeze in some "starts" here and there and become a rotation guy. We ought to be okay, with that group, if the rookies come through at least okay.

Numbers are similar to those in Baltimore... we are on target to land post-draft with close to 60 players, including some trial types. A young but semi-promising OL will be the thing to watch here. Oh, and maybe we need to keep an eye on QB Rod Swift, who seems reluctant to re-up with us and play in this mess again.

[QuikSand]

So, Ravens have a QB controversy? Well, maybe...

	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	QB Cary Alfonso	2 years, $88,000,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $44.0M, $44.0M.)	40	40
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	FL Drew Perez	2 years, $10,580,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $5.3M, $5.3M.)	27	27
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	QB Nolan Rich	2 years, $14,000,000 (Bonus: $40K. Salary: $7.0M, $7.0M.)	29	41

No bonus for either guy, but we have the "stay the crappy course" guy back if we want him, and the "box of chocolates" guy as well.

[QuikSand]

The pot, she thickens...

Baltimore Ravens

QuikSand

QB Hayden Battle

3 years, $66,000,000 (Bonus: $42.0M. Salary: $8.0M, $8.0M, $8.0M.)

41

41

So, what now? Battle has been playing, so we have a track record... and it's... okay. Around 6 yards per attempt (meh) and close to the golden ratio of 1.6 TDs for every Int. BenBot pegs his AvInt around 50.

This is probably our starter, right? 70 Sense Rush is way above anything we have from anyone else. Yeah, it's silly to overlook that... we just need to get behind him, I reckon.

[QuikSand]

So, expected development here in Baltimore, with LB Mohammad, a solid run-stopper but a guy with low enough endurance and personality to make him a bubble player for purposes of a fat long term deal. Now he's holding out, forcing the issue. I can afford him now, but... do I want to pay him $45m/yr or so to be a somewhat limited LB3 guy with only weak chemistry?

Framed that way, obviously no. But... my good LBs are in years 10, 6, 10, 4(Mohammad), 10. We really would like to have some continuity as these guys phase out soon. So, it's tough.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and how could I semi-forget, the always humbling reveal of the BenBot analysis of everyone's drafts? Before I look, I will guess WAS posted my usual low rating, probably around #26. And BAL with two firsts, should have done a bit better, maybe around #18.

= = = = =

8

BAL

QuikSand

1(9) LT Javier La Rosa 46/71 1(27) RB Richard Sellers 39/59 2(27) RB Vince Hines 38/48 4(12) RT Sawyer Caldwell 24/41 4(31) LCB Justics Hallock 17/43 3(31) RDT Bubba Henderson 24/51 4(15) TE Trevor Henson 23/41

1(9) LT Javier La Rosa 46/71 1(27) RB Richard Sellers 39/59 2(27) RB Vince Hines 38/48 4(12) RT Sawyer Caldwell 24/41 4(31) LCB Justics Hallock 17/43 3(31) RDT Bubba Henderson 24/51 4(15) TE Trevor Henson 23/41

69.3

Hey how about that?

27

WAS

KickStand

3(5) RDE Chance Victor 31/59 2(6) LT Isaac Jordan 33/54 1(7) LT Leon Kariya 25/62 6(6) FL Roger Thomas 20/40 5(7) RG Les Dabbs 16/42 7(5) FB Ryan Andersen 25/45

3(5) RDE Chance Victor 31/59 2(6) LT Isaac Jordan 33/54 1(7) LT Leon Kariya 25/62 6(6) FL Roger Thomas 20/40 5(7) RG Les Dabbs 16/42 7(5) FB Ryan Andersen 25/45

59.1

And yeah, pretty much as predicted. Almost nailed it, actually.

[QuikSand]

My own rookie takeaways from the sneak peek:

BAL
RB Sellers looks really good, very pleased there... move to WR seems risky
RB Hines looks fine, typical late round guy, only drafted in early 2nd
TE Henson should develop the bars I value, long term TE2 I think
WR Welch has limited skills, but may be long term WR3/WR4
T La Rosa looks good, not great, a reach with that early pick, but starter
T Caldwell is end-of-bench fodder
DT Henderson was bad value with a 3rd, too limited
CB Hallock is end-of-bench fodder

[QuikSand]

WAS

FB Anderson has nice mix of skills, I could see him as long term starter
WR Thomas low endurance but a few bars, could stick for a while as WR5
G Dabbs is decent pass-blocking guard, i never know what to do with those
T Jordan might develop to be good enough to play at RT, will get a shot here
T Kariya is low dev% but if he fills those green bars, he should be starting LT
DE Victor is fun mix of bars, run stopper at DE or maybe WLB, intriguing
LB Briggs is coverage-first backer, roster is thin, giving him a shot to make it

[QuikSand]

In Baltimore, I really like the silly notion of using RB Sellers like the IRL Jags are saying they want to use Travis Etienne - as a swing WR/RB offensive "weapon." He's 206, and I expect he might even lose weight, I could make him into a 1st-round-worthy WR I believe. But he looks right now like an awfully solid RB1 guy. Tough to know what to do, I think.

[QuikSand]

Late free agency results... as always, bonus tells much of the story:

FB Devonte Thune	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
FL Tony de la Cruz	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
MLB Dave Dillon	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,140,000.
WILB Joseph Hamm	Late FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Cleveland: 3yrs, $19,200,000.
RB Malik McClure	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
TE Richie Ferguson	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
LDT Ernie Collier	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,140,000.
RCB Carlton Gambone	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
TE Donald Shields	Late FA Stage 3	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Buffalo: 1yrs, $4,300,000.
QB Ashton Briggs	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,140,000.

LB Hamm is likely a plug-and-play guy we expect to use a good deal, and to have as part of our lineup after a wave of retirements/fades that are coming at the LB positions. RB McClure looks... promising, maybe? CB Gambone is a multi-bar, multi-void player who might make the team as a KR/ST guy, too.

[QuikSand]

And the WFT:

LDE Manuel Price	Late FA Stage 1	has begun a contract holdout
LDE Manuel Price	Late FA Stage 1	signed a renegotiated contract: 3yrs, $62,740,000.
SE Leland Tubbs	Late FA Stage 1	turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $51,000,000.
SILB Lawrence Cranwell	Late FA Stage 1	turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $30,000,000.
TE Jonah Lovelace	Late FA Stage 1	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Tampa Bay: 2yrs, $7,500,000.
SE Larry Simpkins	Late FA Stage 1	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $6,140,000.
SLB Riley Long	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $3,900,000.
RDT Glen Scarbrough	Late FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from San Francisco: 3yrs, $17,700,000.
RB Brandon Whittle	Late FA Stage 2	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $6,200,000.
LT James Marsh	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $3,900,000.
P Brady Kemock	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $7,800,000.
P Phil Walley	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $10,300,000.
RDE Clarence Shallard	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,650,000.
RDT Don Van Pelt	Late FA Stage 2	turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $4,800,000.
SILB Liam Northcott	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $9,020,000.
RB Ruben Tiller	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $5,900,000.
LG Nathaniel Irwin	Late FA Stage 3	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $6,140,000.

Nothing alarming here, really. Might have a free-for-all for roster slots among the FB/RB group, I think.

[QuikSand]

Ok, training camp is done, time for the preseason file.

WFT was pretty boring to set up... lots of youth, lots of guy who need starts, that sort of thing. I don't think the team will be horrid, but the OL there is just soooo young, it can't work out that great. Rod, I'm sorry, buddy.

BAL is much more interesting right now. RB Sellers looks every bit the part as RB1... but I now have not one but two other rookies who also look like they could be effective there. I pushed Sellers to lose weight, and he switches out to WR at 96%... I think we have to do it. He looks like a reasonable B+ type WR1 to me, and we truly need that.

At QB... we likely just need to decide whether we're cutting Cary Alfonso. Likely yes, that would help free up cap space to re-sign LB Mohammad and WR Jefferson. If we fancy ourselves as staying in the "contender" tier, then we had better do those things. That hands the ball to Hayden Battle, I guess, to see if we can squeeze an Alfonso-plus season out of him (and implicitly improve on his 8 years in the league).

So, these are fun decisions, honestly.

[QuikSand]

So much for the double draft this year providing a ton of fuel for the Ravens' future:

23

BAL

QuikSand

1(9) LT Javier La Rosa 47/65 1(27) FL Richard Sellers 28/50 4(12) RT Sawyer Caldwell 27/38 3(31) NT Bubba Henderson 30/51

1(9) LT Javier La Rosa 47/65 1(27) FL Richard Sellers 28/50 4(12) RT Sawyer Caldwell 27/38 3(31) NT Bubba Henderson 30/51

60.7

[QuikSand]

...the big loss here is that Sellers did not come through the RB-WR conversion in good shape at all. I guess there's some dice rolling in that process, and we got bad luck, he looks very, very mediocre... not a WR1/2 but more of a WR4/5 now, for our 1st round pick and a seemingly sure thing lock as RB1. Ouch.


Other attrition here and there, but that's the major loss. Drat.

[Chas in Cinti]

Wow... I've never seen one be that far off on the projection (didn't you say he was like 96%)...

[QuikSand]

Yeah, Sellers projected at 90-something% and the bar profile looked pretty good, so I felt I was getting a borderline WR1 there. Position-switching is a bit of an unknown to me and most of us, I think... guess I just got unlucky.

File set for the Ravens. if we were not coming off a nice run to the title game last season, I'd be predicting a 9-7 milquetoast season here. Instead I'll bump that up to 10-6 and "fringe contender" but I don't see it all coming together here - too many weak spots on this roster, and now a cohesion problem at key positions too.

[QuikSand]

WFT file is in. Maybe we're 8-8 here? OL is still a work in progress, being charitable with that cliche deployment. Rod Swift likely gets his last hurrah here, sorry buddy.

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

Welp, predictions were sound, as was their inherent lack of real optimism...

RAVENS EARN WILD CARD BERTH AT 10-6

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2143

LISTLESS WFT FLOUNDERS UNDER .500 AGAIN

GML: Washington Football Team 2143

[QuikSand]

In Washington, it feels like a blunder to have run old Rod Swift back out there, I should have at least gotten that "first season worth of bad starts" out of the way for Miles Thornton (former 3rd round pick, sitting idle through year 5). Not a high likelihood Thornton is going to be "the guy" but at least he'd have a shot with that out of the way.

The OL stats are just an abomination. Starting C went 6 for 52 in key run blocks... OMG. Just a bad scene all around, a lost season but not bad enough to pull a lottery ticket draft pick. Awesome.

[QuikSand]

The Ravens were about what I expected, a decent team, but not really a "threat" for big honors. Battle gave me more or less what we'd have gotten from Alfonso, much cheaper and with more upside short term. Run game was weak (but Battle lead the team and proved to be adept in the running game). Big money free agent WR Blouir got 142 targets, but only 6.7 ypt... nobody stood out in the air game, really.

On D, nothing shocking. We were reasonably effective in the pass rush (PR% mid-pack), even without a standout guy with the ratings to anchor that effort - Manning remains our best guy up front. Veteran LB Patton had a great season all-around, and LB Mohammad even came to play against the pass (10 PDs).

Work to do here, but we have some pieces in place. With cap space to spend, and a 10th year QB next year, maybe we try to add in another big signing or two (chemistry or not) to try to liven things up. WFT doesn't feel like it's going anywhere soon, so we should at least have something exciting here for anyone still slogging through this thread.

[Chas in Cinti]

I'm still slogging...

[QuikSand]

Yeah, Chas, you're probably the last of it. I need to have something going, maybe take this WFT team and try to execute my "target year" philosophy or something. Just rebuilt the whole OL, we could surely just shed off all our 8th+ year guys and load up on whatever we can young, and just say we're all in for... uhh...we just wrapped 2143 so... 2147?

[Pyser]

i'm here - gml forever!

[Chas in Cinti]

@Quik... Sounds like a plan... by the way, above you mentioned you were in Ohio... whereabouts? I'm all over... we should grab that beer we talked about 20 or so years ago... LOL

[QuikSand]

My mother lived in Middletown for around 10 years, but has fairly recently moved back toward Lake Erie, closer to where I grew up (in Erie County). Was there to visit her for a weekend, and nominally get a tiny slice of R&R.

[QuikSand]

Okay, let's say we're ready to commit to a five year plan for the WFT from here. In theory, that means for me that I'm shifting gears and seeking to max things out in roughly 2148 (we are just starting 2144 now). So, 10th year players who won't be around by 2148 need to be phased out, in the name of building cohesion and development for the targeted peak years.

The missing piece here is we lack a QB worthy of building around. But we'll see what we can do there. At least we can have a vision here.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football Eight
Washington Football Team Roster, Scout Overview

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Thornton, Myles         133 QB          6    37               37               2 yrs. 
Fitzgerald, Brody       119 QB          5    15               30               1 yr.  
Iacuessa, Korey         112 QB          6    16               26               ---    
Swift, Rod              106 QB          16   19               19               ---    

Well, Rod Swift hasn't had enough punishment, it appears. But what do we have here worth anything?

Thornton is a two bar guy, but they're two good bars - sense rush and accuracy. So, worst case, we trot him out, get his bad first year out of the way.

Ideally, though, we either draft a youngster or find a young-ish player by trade or free agency, and have that guy to build around.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Tiller, Ruben           231 RB          2    42               48               ---    
Greenway, Efrain        235 RB          7    47               47               ---    
Sampson, Marcus         283 RB          6    2                5                1 yr.  

Tiller had a rookie ratings bump, and I'm going to try to look past his bad stats and blame the line there. Strong chem, so we can pm in as a long term asset.

Greenway is okay, but on a five year plan, a 7th season RB is not a keeper. Sorry.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Fau, Dale               344 FB          4    52               52               3 yrs. 
Anderko, Cedric         346 FB          4    35               45               ---    

Fau suffers from once being through of as a big deal. Had he been an undrafted rookie, I'd be really happy with him now. ANyway, both these guys could fit in longer term.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
McDaniel, Devon         447 TE          6    52               52               ---    
Humphries, Clyde        486 TE          3    37               41               2 yrs. 
Fasani, Ernie           482 TE          12   30               30               1 yr.  

McDaniel is the higest rated, but isn't great - more of a blocker. So, we will need to be adding guys here.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Craven, Andy            510 FL          7    37               37               2 yrs. 
Fuller, Dillon          508 SE          6    61               61               4 yrs. 
Tubbs, Leland           518 SE          8    49               49               1 yr.  
Tatum, Johnnie          580 SE          6    41               41               1 yr.  

Retirements hit us this offseason, so we have Diller to build around, and maybe we push our Tubbs - who was once very productive in the "go deep" X role in my 11 formation.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Constable, Wendell      661 C           6    30               43               1 yr.  
Lovelace, Jonah         649 C           4    1                2                1 yr.  
Crownhart, Bradley      767 RG          6    35               35               1 yr.  
Dabbs, Les              774 RG          2    23               35               3 yrs. 
Kariya, Leon            860 LT          2    39               54               3 yrs. 
Jordan, Isaac           878 LT          2    37               49               3 yrs. 
Marsh, James            871 LT          2    24               41               ---    
Phillips, Benjamin      872 RT          3    34               48               ---    

We're set for chemistry and cohesion here - Lovelace will be a great leader, and everyone has starts to click around him. We will want to improve the talent level, but we are not in terrible shape - three tackles could start for us longer term, in a worst case scenario, and with experience and cohesion, we would likely "draft toward average." #PFF

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Walley, Phil            904 P           2    64               64               ---    
Emerson, Riley          1003K           5    74               74               ---    

Walley was a big money rookie free agent, now mine forever, I hope. EMerson, we will have to decide whether he's worth real money.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Quinn, Wally            1199LDE         8    67               67               1 yr.  
Scarbrough, Glen        1195LDE         3    47               47               2 yrs. 
Price, Manuel           1192LDE         6    42               42               2 yrs. 
Victor, Chance          1190RDE         2    46               54               3 yrs. 
Clayton, Ike            1194RDE         9    37               37               ---    
Ramaswami, Victor       1298NT          8    66               66               1 yr.  
Samuels, Dillon         1293NT          4    61               61               1 yr.  
Baker, Les              1296NT          12   34               34               ---    

So, here, we are anchored around Group 3 LB Harding, whom we hope will stay around for 4 more seasons as leader.

After 4 seasons, I could see us using these base formations for the front three:

Base: Victor - Samuels - XXXXXXXX
v3WR: XXXXXXXX - XXXXXXXX - Price

Scarbrough could stick through the four years, but doesn't look good enough to really play a lot. But we could easily slot him in to get his starts now while we're thinking longer term. he could stick, despite not really making my grid above.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Cranwell, Lawrence      1353SILB        7    43               43               ---    
Harding, Conner         1345WILB        8    50               50               2 yrs. 
Flannery, Sebastian     1455SLB         8    55               55               1 yr.  
Long, Riley             1457SLB         4    41               46               ---    
Briggs, Floyd           1458SLB         2    27               31               3 yrs. 
Rudd, Barry             1450WLB         6    49               49               1 yr.  

So, does anyone here belong on the field in 4 more years? Not really, maybe Long. Hopefully Harding stays as leader.

But we will have work to do, of course. I will figure Long for a big role, and hope he continues his development as a starter, likely to slot in eventually as SILB against the pass, perhaps.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Bradley, Derek          1517LCB         11   61               61               2 yrs. 
Hughes, Cooper          1543LCB         4    38               38               1 yr.  
Sutton, Larry           1515RCB         7    60               60               ---    
Hastings, Jalen         1527RCB         4    37               37               2 yrs. 
Shelton, Asher          1530RCB         7    35               35               ---    
Rochon, Cristian        1640SS          7    57               57               1 yr.  
Gruttadauria, Alexis    1634SS          3    44               44               2 yrs. 
Farrell, Hugh           1623FS          6    53               53               1 yr.  
Ruark, Levon            1636FS          4    39               39               1 yr.  
Ellis, Jeremy           669 LS          3    21               21               2 yrs. 

Well, this group isn't bad, and we have some young assets. No chem leader right now, so some pliability there I suppose.

In order of 2048 value/importance, I guess I would see these guys being around and contributing:
S Gruttadauria (all purpose safety, zone coverage ace)
S Farrell (huge chem asset, can play SS/FS/NB, high endurance)
S Ruark (rotation zone guy who gets picks)
CB Hastings (zone guy, okay for NB/DB role)
CB Hughes (bump void, but great ST and coh/chem asset)

...what's missing there is anyone who can play CB1 or CB2. SO, we need some help there, I reckon.

     
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 34
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 34
   
Salary Cap: $819,500,000
Cap Room: $333,710,000
Maximum for New Player: $296,350,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $13,130,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $236,050,000

We have cap space to use now, and if we find anyone among that gaggle of 5th year players, that is fair game to lock up and still have them be near peak in four seasons from now.

[QuikSand]

So, we have a week off for Commissioner vacation. Chilling out a bit.

Have the draft class available, and a look from the WFT perspective is... meh. Our 6-10 season only got us pick 11 in the draft, and my best guess is we will end up with a BPA type guy rather than getting lucky with an impact position like QB or WR. There are a gaggle of affinity QBs in this draft, but anyone really exciting would get grabbed well before pick 11, so... we'll see. No extra picks, so our thinking will probably be to grab two long term assets (hopefully) with picks 11 and 42, and then just scrounge our way through, possibly with a focus on chemistry (as in, high personality guys).

[QuikSand]

Some illustration of "what do you mean, all in for 2148?"

Here's a guy available in free agency:

8th year DT Bronson

So, I have a lot of cap space, and my current DL group is okay, but not fantastic. My Main NT guy is Ramaswami, another 8th year guy for whom I paid big FA money, and who is fine but not an affinity. I have Samuels who is a run-stopper, so there's not an obvious slot for this guy on my team -- but he might be a guy I'd pursue anyway.

But this year, if I am really focused on 2148, four years out, this guy will be in year 12. Likely in serious decline. So, at that point he'd mostly just be a chem asset with a shade of cohesion. But we have Samuels, who only has 51 personality but will almost surely be a better performer in 4 years, and will bring more cohesion to the table then.

Playing for right now, Bronson would get an offer. Playing for 2148, I don't see any point in it. He'd just be stealing "starts" from a younger player. Pass.

[QuikSand]

Put another way:

Football, more than any other sport except possibly the NBA, allows you to "draft for immediate need" knowing that your top picks can reasonably be expected to step right into important/starting roles. Not every team does this, but it's viable. And free agency is always there to help target the immediate need, if you're willing to spend market price plus.

Typically, I'd be doing that. In Washington, my team really needs, right now, a starting TE. Going out and landing one of the top couple free agent guys could make a lot of sense. Other places, like the DL, are pretty secure right now, as I feel I have the starters I need right away. That's not an immediate priority.

But here, I'm not really trying to think about my 2144 roster right now. If we have genuine gaps, so be it. I 'll try to patch them over where I can, but my main focus is on the 2148 roster... and the places where I see problems there. And in that frame of mind, I look instead at the DL, where my high value guys are currently in years 8,9,8, and 6. Four years from now, even if they all are still around, they will be in deep decline. The 2148 roster really needs work there, and that has to be a focus - whether it's finding young-ish free agents, or rookies.

Drafting a valuable TE is still an option, it always is. But getting a guy plugged in and ready to go at DE is a higher priority than would meet the eye, due to the long term lens.

[QuikSand]

So, with pick 1.11, WFT definitely wants to target a position of need - as noted above, a DL would be fine, I'd also be fine with a CB and had a couple guys in mind.

But the top ten picks included both my CB targets, and I didn't like anyone at DL enough to go with.

So... stud tackle? Nope. Uhhh... linebacker? Nope.

Non affinity running back? Yeah, that's the ticket.




Washington: KickStand takes RB Carl Blouir with the 1.11 pick.

Breakaway Speed		67<->95
Power Inside		18<->46
Third Down Running		49<->76
Hole Recognition		71<->99
Elusiveness		40<->67
Speed to Outside		73<->100
Blitz Pickup		69<->96
Avoid Drops		73<->100
Getting Downfield		40<->67
Route Running		66<->93
Third Down Catching		73<->100
Punt Returning		0<->27
Kick Returning		0<->27
Endurance		65<->92
Special Teams		61<->89

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
69	208	6.7	7.1	4.41	35	18	7.17	121	35	54

How does this make sense? I don't really know, I just felt he was good value. He might thin down and convert to WR... despite my bad turn in BAL with that notion I still think it's viable here. Or even if he is just a big bars RB, that's something we have not had on this team for some time, and by his 4th year he'd be in his peak, I guess.


We'll see. Welcome aboard, Carl.

[QuikSand]

Pick 21 for Baltimore is more the usual speed... I am thrilled with this guy, who should switch over to play CB nicely, and hopefully as CB1 for a long time...




Baltimore: QuikSand takes S Wesley McCormick with the 1.21 pick.

Run Defense		48<->79
Man-to-Man Defense		70<->100
Zone Defense		59<->89
Bump-and-Run Defense		69<->100
Play Diagnosis		15<->46
Punishing Hitter		22<->53
Interceptions		65<->95
Punt Returning		56<->87
Kick Returning		56<->87
Endurance		61<->92
Special Teams		70<->100

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
71	204	6.1	5.7	4.33	41	22	6.96	121	51	28

[Pyser]

finally a deep firs round. it had been a loooong time.

that guy will be a great cb.

[QuikSand]

it does feel like the back end of round one has been thing in this league...

[QuikSand]

Okay, not a lot of updates, but in Washington, I get what I wanted... now let's hope we're not the dog who caught the car.

I wanted a QB in this draft, if only to have "something" to put into that slot in the mental picture of our big year ahead. This draft was barren, but among my chem fits, this was my best target...




Washington: KickStand takes QB Rob Sicotte with the 2.10 pick.

Screen Passes		11<->39
Short Passes		14<->42
Medium Passes		54<->82
Long Passes		68<->96
Deep Passes		22<->50
Third Down Passing		14<->42
Accuracy		48<->76
Timing		72<->100
Sense Rush		29<->57
Read Defense		40<->69
Two Minute Offense		46<->74
Scramble Frequency		60<->88
Kick Holding		72<->100

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
72	220	5.0	5.7	4.61	45	13	7.80	112	91	16

I get he is obviously not perfect. And, if we're bring honest here, the plentitude of AI teams using Ben's pretty savvy drafting algorithm makes it even less likely that he's a serious diamond in the rough.


But... there are things to sorta like here. Five good combines. Zero void bars. A good timing bar that, on a different player, a certain overpowered GM has said he thinks is valuable.


Can this guy be "the guy" for us? Don't know. The immediate opportunity cost was a trade-down offer that I candidly just missed (made the pick and then checked the board, dummy)... or alternatively a pretty good but not great looking tackle. So, it's not like this was pick 1.10... it was pick 2.10. I can live with a fail here, obviously, and more or less expect it.

[QuikSand]

Minor update... I have three guys I liked a bit as my BAL 2nd rounder approached, so I made a modest deal to trade down, thinking it might boost my chances of landing two of the three guys.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

NE sends
2.30 and 3.30

BAL sends
2.21 and 4.21

However... in the space between 2.21 and 2.30, I end up losing two of my three targets. Awesome.

Anyway, we land a guy who (for the second time I can remember in MP FOF) seems to have come off the factory floor basically from the mold of... well, me:




Baltimore: QuikSand takes TE Weston Quinn with the 2.30 pick.

Run Blocking		57<->85
Pass Blocking		39<->67
Blocking Strength		14<->42
Avoid Drops		26<->54
Getting Downfield		47<->75
Route Running		54<->82
Third Down Catching		52<->80
Big-Play Receiving		28<->56
Courage		52<->80
Adjust to Ball		35<->63
Endurance		10<->38
Special Teams		66<->94

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
76	265	5.7	4.9	4.68	29	19	7.56	111	36	62

So, let's see here... 6'4" and about 265, that's more or less me now. "Playing weight" would have been less, but we'll roll with it. TE... yeah, that's what I'd say was my principal playing position. Basically a solid blocker, fairly sure hands, but not all that shifty after the catch... check. And Syracuse, check.


(Sadly, the leaguewide look is a click and a half lower than what my scout saw... so maybe he was a major reach here)


We'll see.