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Old 10-27-2009, 12:14 PM   #801
Raiders Army
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Join Date: Oct 2000
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VOTE HOOPSGUY

Believe we need to start some activity or we're just going to waste today.
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Old 10-27-2009, 12:17 PM   #802
Lathum
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I believe you PB!!
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Old 10-27-2009, 12:31 PM   #803
Coffee Warlord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG View Post
CW, what are your reads on people at this point?

Just got back from lunch, and have a bunch of email. I'll post my thoughts as soon as I can.
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Old 10-27-2009, 12:39 PM   #804
The Jackal
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I believe you PB!!

+1
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Old 10-27-2009, 12:47 PM   #805
hoopsguy
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Wrapped up with my client earlier than expected, so I'll be around most of the afternoon.

Votes as of Post #804:
Hoops - Lathum (774), RA (801)
CW - Hoops (777)
NTN - Lerri (778)
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Old 10-27-2009, 12:59 PM   #806
Coffee Warlord
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Alright. Largely gut reads and personal impressions overall. I honestly don't have time at the moment to dig through votes/unvotes and go the logic route, so I'll spew forth my instinct reads.

The good...
PB - Trusted. Like I said, there's no way someone wouldn't have challenged him he was faking at this point.

RA - Feel moderately decent about. I originally was challenging him, but upon going back and looking at his day 1 actions, I was able to follow his (theoretical) mindset here, and it felt like decent-ness. And thusly don't mind him.

The bad...
I still don't care for NTN. I kind of wonder if we had two wolves on the block yesterday. I have no further evidence besides what we already posted, but the thought is there, festering like a diseased yak.

Lathum. Not so much for voting records, but warranted or not, it feels like he's been unseasonably quiet. Could be RL, could be just my perception, could be he's altered his play style since I last played, but I remember him being...louder.

The I Don't Know What To Make Of Them...
Touching briefly on the pair who've voted for me, Hoops and Kwhit, I just don't know where to place them. Of the two, KWhit's been sort of out sync, and hoops...I just don't know. Understandably, my voting has been less than stellar thus far, so I can't suspect them just from them voting me, but I just don't feel like I have anything resembling a read on either of them.

The Post More Please Duo...
Ping: lerriuqs & MartinD. Kindly post more, it feels like you two have been sitting under the rader being vewy vewy quiet hunting wabbits thus far.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:20 PM   #807
hoopsguy
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CW, I'm all for it if you can get Lerriuqs + MartinD to post more but their posting this game is pretty consistent with other games they have played. I personally think Lerriuqs has put himself in a pretty trusted spot with his voting record.

If you have specific questions about my play I'm happy to answer them. Similarly, I'm not 100% married to voting you today but I think I've spelled out my thoughts going into today pretty clearly on every person in the game.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:25 PM   #808
The Jackal
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What do you think about KWhit, hoops?
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:26 PM   #809
Coffee Warlord
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
CW, I'm all for it if you can get Lerriuqs + MartinD to post more but their posting this game is pretty consistent with other games they have played.

Fair enough point. I'm honestly not sure if I've actually played in a game with either of them. POSSIBLY Martin, but I dunno.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:38 PM   #810
Lathum
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CW, you mentioned not having time to look through the voting records so I figured I would quickly state my case.

Day 1: (198) Lathum unvotes Chief Rum, votes Abe Sargent (PB 6, AS 5, RA 2, hoops 1, KWhit 1, ntn 1)

No way do I make that move as a wolf. I either vote PB to put him further ahead or leave my vote on CR who is in no real danger. Now I do unvote Abe later and move on to Danny, but as a wolf what do I have to gain by that move.

Day 2 I cast the first vote on Abe and spearheaded the charge against him. again, as a wolf what do I have to gain by playing that way, against the cunning no less.

As for my playing style, I am back in school and in my senior year majoring in history at The University of Washington, so my time is much more limited than in the past.

Plus I have been a real tool in the past and am working on getting past that.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:40 PM   #811
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
What do you think about KWhit, hoops?

Here is a repost from #776:
KWhit - killer bad vote yesterday on PB, putting him up 7-6 on Abe. His vote today avoided both leading candidates. Leaning towards distrust, but not at the bottom of the pile since he could have actively backed Abe instead of going 3rd party.

Expanding on it a little more, KWhit is a really good villager when he is engaged in a game. He seems to have a better knack than most at cutting to the important information when it comes to his vote. I like playing with him a great deal. But I don't think his schedule allows him to play like this all the time and this seems like one of those games so far where he just is not dialed in. I don't think it is any kind of "tell" in terms of his faction this game, but it does make it a little harder for me to take a hard stance on him.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:43 PM   #812
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
CW, you mentioned not having time to look through the voting records so I figured I would quickly state my case.

Day 1: (198) Lathum unvotes Chief Rum, votes Abe Sargent (PB 6, AS 5, RA 2, hoops 1, KWhit 1, ntn 1)

No way do I make that move as a wolf. I either vote PB to put him further ahead or leave my vote on CR who is in no real danger. Now I do unvote Abe later and move on to Danny, but as a wolf what do I have to gain by that move.

Day 2 I cast the first vote on Abe and spearheaded the charge against him. again, as a wolf what do I have to gain by playing that way, against the cunning no less.

As for my playing style, I am back in school and in my senior year majoring in history at The University of Washington, so my time is much more limited than in the past.

Plus I have been a real tool in the past and am working on getting past that.

1.) How is your Day 1 vote so different than my Day 2 vote?
2.) Why would I bring up the cunning wolf on Day 1? "As a wolf what do I have to gain by playing that way, against the cunning no less".

Obviously if you are 100% convinced that I'm a wolf then it really does not matter what argument I raise. But it would be prudent to start thinking about how those D1/D2 votes shake out with me as a villager because that is what you are going to learn if/when I'm lynched.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:45 PM   #813
GoldenEagle
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PB, what is your interpretation of getting hit with a shoe last night? Do you think that means your particular action was blocked? In other words, KWhit could have still performed an action last night. I know this was talked about a bit earlier, but I am just seeking more clarification.
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:55 PM   #814
hoopsguy
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I agree that it is worth discussion on why PB's night report was different than the previous night. PB, do you think it was just moderator flavor or potentially something more?
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Old 10-27-2009, 01:59 PM   #815
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
1.) How is your Day 1 vote so different than my Day 2 vote?

At the time of your vote it was 4-3 NTN/Abe respectivly. You had been trying all day to steer people from Abe, only to vote him. Had you made it 5-3 NTN and NTN gets lynched that points to you trying to save Abe. Now granted NTN could also be a wolf. By making it 4-4 you risk Abe getting lyncehd, but that makes you look better,but there is also the chance he doesn't get lynched and NTN does, which also makes you look good.It is a risky play, but one you are certainly capable of making.



Quote:
2.) Why would I bring up the cunning wolf on Day 1? "As a wolf what do I have to gain by playing that way, against the cunning no less".


you were the 4th person to cast a vote for a 4th candidate. Oddly enough Abe then votes for you. There is little risk day 1 casting the first vote on someone like that and the reward is you can use it for your defense, like you are doing now.

It just seems to me you and Abe have been playing off each other all game.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:04 PM   #816
KWhit
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Well, hello there Halloween party-goers.

Just getting caught up.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:12 PM   #817
KWhit
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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
I have to say, this sandwich that I found tasted great.

I almost thought about sharing it but only saw Shaggy and JAG online so I snuck off and had it myself. I really wasn't sure about sharing at that point..... I was hungry!!!!!!


Now back to the game. I want to find out more about what KWhit was doing. Maybe he'll bring me some scooby snacks and we'll talk about it over them.

If anyone else has scooby snacks feel free to let me know. I just love those things!!!!!!!!!!!

No Scooby snacks, I'm afraid.

As to what I was doing last night? Nothing. I have no night actions, so I wasn't "doing" anything. I assume Schmidty's writeup to PB was just flavor text to show that he was watching me when someone disrupted him (which wasn't me).

Unfortunately, I have no way to prove any of that.

I will however, point out this role description again:

Quote:
Werewolf - The Werewolf is a vicious Monster who can intimidate a player once a phase. This will stop whatever ability/action they are trying to perform.

So I assume that the werewolf intimidated PB and kept him from watching me (not that he would have anything). I will further assume that the werewolf had no idea who PB chose to watch/follow last night when he blocked him.

So just because PB was blocked while following me, don't assume that I had anything to do with it. I didn't.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:16 PM   #818
Lathum
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so can the Werewolf target the same player 2 nights in a row?
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:16 PM   #819
GoldenEagle
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On the subject of night kills, it is easy to see why J23 was killed. The cunning was dead and they wolves picked up on something J23 said that made them believe he was the seer. That was an intelligent play, because I missed that.

But the night kill of Danny is far more interesting. It does not make sense. He was likely going to draw heat the next day. Purdue Brad had revealed he was Shaggy. In my opinion, Shaggy is the 2nd most dangerous role in the game. Why would the wolves not kill him on night one?
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:17 PM   #820
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenEagle View Post
But the night kill of Danny is far more interesting. It does not make sense. He was likely going to draw heat the next day. Purdue Brad had revealed he was Shaggy. In my opinion, Shaggy is the 2nd most dangerous role in the game. Why would the wolves not kill him on night one?

I would assume they figured he would be guarded.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:19 PM   #821
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
At the time of your vote it was 4-3 NTN/Abe respectivly. You had been trying all day to steer people from Abe, only to vote him. Had you made it 5-3 NTN and NTN gets lynched that points to you trying to save Abe. Now granted NTN could also be a wolf. By making it 4-4 you risk Abe getting lyncehd, but that makes you look better,but there is also the chance he doesn't get lynched and NTN does, which also makes you look good.It is a risky play, but one you are certainly capable of making.






you were the 4th person to cast a vote for a 4th candidate. Oddly enough Abe then votes for you. There is little risk day 1 casting the first vote on someone like that and the reward is you can use it for your defense, like you are doing now.

It just seems to me you and Abe have been playing off each other all game.


I still don't see how what you perceive as my "risky wolf" plays are so different than your "clear villager" plays. I could make counter-claims about how you have been doing exactly what you accuse me of doing but I don't think it is productive. I think there are multiple people more likely than you to be a wolf and I don't really want to try and paint a target on you just because you are the most strident person in voting for me.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:21 PM   #822
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
I still don't see how what you perceive as my "risky wolf" plays are so different than your "clear villager" plays. I could make counter-claims about how you have been doing exactly what you accuse me of doing but I don't think it is productive. I think there are multiple people more likely than you to be a wolf and I don't really want to try and paint a target on you just because you are the most strident person in voting for me.

paint away.

and it is easy because I know I am a villager.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:21 PM   #823
GoldenEagle
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Another thing - I bet the wolves thought they had a 50/50 shot at J23 being the seer. Would it not have been smarter to go ahead and take out Shaggy, with a 100% chance.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:22 PM   #824
Lathum
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dola- and to compare your votes to mine Hoops is absurd. You made a late vote switch day 1 that directly led to a villager dying while saving a wolf.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:23 PM   #825
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenEagle View Post
Another thing - I bet the wolves thought they had a 50/50 shot at J23 being the seer. Would it not have been smarter to go ahead and take out Shaggy, with a 100% chance.

IMO no. Especially if one of the wolves is a high profile player likely to be scanned. Like Hoops
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:36 PM   #826
JAG
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VOTE HOOPSGUY

I feel that the D1 votes (the initial vote on Abe, the last minute save of Abe) look poor if you believe as I do that the wolves wanted the cunning to get some level of heat and get scanned on N1 (which they appear to have succeeded in). Voting Abe on D2 paints him in a better light, but I don't find it unreasonable that this could be a maneuver to gain trust in the event that Abe was voted out, especially if they felt like they had a bead on the seer at this point because his voting history would've put him in a trusted position. Outside of the darning D1 evidence, in retrospect the idea to 'vote two other candidates or do a pile on on Abe' doesn't look very good as we learned more by having ntn involved in the voting (or likely will at some future point). I feel pretty good about one of either hoops or CW being a wolf trying to save Abe at the very end of D1.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:42 PM   #827
hoopsguy
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JAG, take a look at my posts down the stretch on Day 1. Does it look at all like I was trying to get anyone to move off of Abe, prior to PB + Danny making an agreement to start a run on Telle?
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:42 PM   #828
GoldenEagle
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
IMO no. Especially if one of the wolves is a high profile player likely to be scanned. Like Hoops

At what number do you put that percentage at then? I don't think the kidnapping of J23 was random, but I don't think the wolves had much to go on either.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:49 PM   #829
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenEagle View Post
At what number do you put that percentage at then? I don't think the kidnapping of J23 was random, but I don't think the wolves had much to go on either.

as someone who is often a day one scan I would take a shot at the seer if I had it. Shaggy really wouldn't worry me much at this point. I would be much more concerned with the seer.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:49 PM   #830
Lathum
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If you are asking me for a number I would say they were at least 75% sure they had the seer, but even if it is 25% I go for it there.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:50 PM   #831
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
JAG, take a look at my posts down the stretch on Day 1. Does it look at all like I was trying to get anyone to move off of Abe, prior to PB + Danny making an agreement to start a run on Telle?

no, but once the opportunity was there you took advantage.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:51 PM   #832
hoopsguy
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OK, I'll throw this out there - the only other candidate that I would be 100% OK with switching to from Coffee Warlord is Raiders Army. After going through a post review of the last hour of Day 1 I think RA actually comes out looking a little worse than Coffee Warlord on the day. I would grudgingly get behind a KWhit vote, but I think the first two candidates I'm mentioning are a fair bit better.

I'm still very against an NTN lynch today - thought he was being picked as the 'easy alternative' yesterday - and I have zero interest in switching to him as an alternative.

Again, I'm posting this stuff because if the current trend continues - both with the current votes on me and the people who seem to be drifting towards voting for me - then we are going to have a bad lynch. Not a horrific "OMG - village is screwed!" lynch because there should be a ton of good info in the voting records. But a wasted day nonetheless.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:56 PM   #833
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
KWhit, I *believe* I've picked up on something from the thread that I feel is worth at least giving him a day or two. Yeah, I'm putting myself out there but its enough that I believe it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I don't like to vote you day 1, but I wasn't going to spread the vote out further. The reason you over Raiders Army and Abe was pretty simple, Raiders hasn't played in a long while, in fact I am not sure I have ever seen him in a game I played. For Abe, everytime he has had the kind of emotional outburst he kind of had this game, he has been a good guy. That said, my vote is not stuck on you by any means.

I will say this now even before a potential last hour run on me, I have no role, so if it ends up choosing between me and a revealed seer/etc.. feel free to go for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Danny, I'm not sure that I've seen the same kind of "emotional outburst" from Abe that I've characterized with his villager play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
PB, you seem to think that you have a read. But I'm pretty sure that Abe has stated in the past that he does not leave clues when holding roles.

Assuming I'm not pulling a Clemens and "misremembering" I'm wondering if you can help me understand how you have come to the conclusion that he is good?

FWIW, it may sound like I'm trying to lead a lynch mob on Abe ... I'm not. But I am trying to understand the logic of a guy who is claiming a good role and was not willing to take all steps to protect himself earlier against an unknown entity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
no, but once the opportunity was there you took advantage.

C'mon - there were a ton of opportunities for me to try and create my own opportunity rather than wait for others to do it for me. I was in the thread for the last 90 minutes on Friday night.

The fact of the matter is that I wasn't sure on the Abe thing at all for two days running. But I did make the right call yesterday with my vote and I'm pleased with myself for doing so even if no one seems willing to give me a shred of credit for a pretty pivotal vote. I do think that the people who voted for NTN early yesterday are the most likely wolves (excluding Scooby) and I've voted accordingly. So please - pretty please with sugar on top - keep this in mind tomorrow if you are bound and determined to screw up today.
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Old 10-27-2009, 02:56 PM   #834
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Oops, was working on a multi-quote from earlier - only meant to have the last quote in the post above.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:03 PM   #835
Lathum
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Quote:
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C'mon - there were a ton of opportunities for me to try and create my own opportunity rather than wait for others to do it for me. I was in the thread for the last 90 minutes on Friday night.

.

I don't think there was.

I think the thought process was you stay on Abe and if he is lynched come off looking good. Once there is a shift you then realize if Abe dodges a bullet and is probably scanned. This allows you to switch to Telle in the hopes Abe is scanned, then not lynched the next day and eventually the seer comes forward clearing abe. This happens and no one is nearly as suspicious of your switch, assuming since it was villager-villager you really weren't trying to save Abe.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:04 PM   #836
hoopsguy
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Dude, why in the world would I sit passively by when the cunning wolf is on the block all day? That is borderline nuts and you have to realize this if you are even pretending to be a villager right now.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:11 PM   #837
JAG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
JAG, take a look at my posts down the stretch on Day 1. Does it look at all like I was trying to get anyone to move off of Abe, prior to PB + Danny making an agreement to start a run on Telle?

There was this post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
PB, I agree that a duke move would help give us a starting point for a COT (Scooby + Duke + likely you) but I do not think we could throw Abe into that group just yet if it played out that way.

FWIW, I do think that Abe is sounding more like my perceptions of his "villager self" since returning from Jimmy Johns.

I'm not 100% convinced. I felt like we were viewing others fairly eye-to-eye, so that gives me pause. But unfortunately the evidence doesn't look very good and I think from my standpoint you look like the highest percentage chance to catch a wolf along with CW. I've felt uncomfortable with some of what you've said thus far so I've given the nod to you barring any other info.

If you are a villager, I appreciate you laying out your thoughts so that we can go back to a known villager viewpoint in the event that you are lynched and come up good.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:12 PM   #838
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Dude, why in the world would I sit passively by when the cunning wolf is on the block all day? That is borderline nuts and you have to realize this if you are even pretending to be a villager right now.

what else could you have done?

wolf 101: if another wolf is going down day one don't vouch for them or tie yourself to them in any way.

Now once the tide surged towards Telle it gave you a shot to save Abe and save face since he was the cunning.

But on day one what else could you do but sit passively by, people who tend to be vocal in saving another player day one get looked at pretty hard.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:25 PM   #839
hoopsguy
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I really don't know how to argue this any other ways at the moment so I'll just take my villager ball and go home for a little while. Do what you want; I'll probably return to the thread in a little while and continue this discussion when I'm in a frame of mind to be a little more civil.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:26 PM   #840
GoldenEagle
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hoops, do you have any sort of role?
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:27 PM   #841
Coffee Warlord
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VOTE NTN

I still have my suspicions about NTN as a wolf, so let's put him back on the block.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:29 PM   #842
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
VOTE NTN

I still have my suspicions about NTN as a wolf, so let's put him back on the block.

and what are they as opposed to the way people feel about hoops?
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:34 PM   #843
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
OK, I'll throw this out there - the only other candidate that I would be 100% OK with switching to from Coffee Warlord is Raiders Army. After going through a post review of the last hour of Day 1 I think RA actually comes out looking a little worse than Coffee Warlord on the day. I would grudgingly get behind a KWhit vote, but I think the first two candidates I'm mentioning are a fair bit better.
I disagree that I come out looking worse than Coffee on day 1; however, with that being said I think that if you look across both day 1 and 2 I look worse than Coffee.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:36 PM   #844
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Zoinks, lots of discussion. Those of you that are good people and trust me, I love you (in a non-sexual, I don't know you from anyone else in the world because we talk over the internet and play a game kind of way).

As for the enslutting that has been happening to me, yeah, it sucks. I believe that GM flavor is behind the change in methods (and I added the flavor of the candlestick that missed me) and nothing more. It could have been KWhit or it may not have been, I have no idea on that one.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:37 PM   #845
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
As for voting for Hoops, well, I think you all know my normal feelings on that. But I think I may go a different way honestly. I'm taking time to consider it.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:39 PM   #846
Coffee Warlord
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
and what are they as opposed to the way people feel about hoops?

1) Irrelevent of anything else, I don't want everybody piling on one candidate - it's less helpful.

2) I look at hoops's voting record, which is essentially identical to mine. I've garnered suspicion, so has he. Fair enough, we've both been ugly in that regard, I can give him the benefit of the doubt, since I'm essentially requiring the same leap of faith. The only difference being yesterday's vote. Leading to...

2a) Yesterday's vote becomes much more meaningful to me in regards to hoops if NTN *is* a wolf. Hoops vote on Abe becomes utterly irrelevant as it was a vote between two wolves, and he'll now have been defending both of them on different days. That makes tomorrow very simple in my mind.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:48 PM   #847
ntndeacon
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
I do not really want to vote hoops today. Two reasons occur to me.
First, We do need to get another candidate up there. Even if hoops is a wolf there are still others out there. (assuming the list of possible wolves are all used then 2 others) Getting another candidate could help us refine the list more.

Secondly, (and more important to me) I feel someone who was willing to listen and ask questions of those accused of being wolves is worth having around. (especially since I know that I am a villager and at least he believed in me and my positions enough to vote )

One alternative that hasn't been mentioned much that needs some light shined on it, is the quieter players. I realize this is a somewhat selfish act, as I have been defined as a quiet one as well. Martin needs to be looked at in the near future. As we all know a quiet wolf is a deadly wolf.
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:53 PM   #848
GoldenEagle
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
Zoinks, lots of discussion. Those of you that are good people and trust me, I love you (in a non-sexual, I don't know you from anyone else in the world because we talk over the internet and play a game kind of way).

As for the enslutting that has been happening to me, yeah, it sucks. I believe that GM flavor is behind the change in methods (and I added the flavor of the candlestick that missed me) and nothing more. It could have been KWhit or it may not have been, I have no idea on that one.

So the PM did say that you got hit with a shoe?
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:53 PM   #849
ntndeacon
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
I hate to do this right after I have been brought up yet again, but since I can not vote for myself and have just said I do not think hoops is the way to go, I will
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD
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Old 10-27-2009, 03:55 PM   #850
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenEagle View Post
So the PM did say that you got hit with a shoe?

Specifically a stinky shoe, but I'm not smelling your shoes to figure out who did it.
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