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Old 06-09-2009, 05:23 PM   #551
Schmidty
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Originally Posted by saldana View Post
i also see a problem with continuing to jail people...every day will be day one until we either get a seer reveal or a 20% hit.

I totally agree.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:27 PM   #552
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
For the not, math inclined. If we jail someone every day, and those players remain in said jail, here are the chances by that day that we will have at least one aura scan:

After Night One (1 prisoner)== 20% chance to learn aura, 80% nothing
After Night Two (2 prisoners)==48.8% chance to learn aura, 51.2% nothing
After Night Three (3 prisoners)==73.8% chance to learn aura, 26.2% nothing
After Night Four (4 prisoners)==89.3% chance to learn aura, 10.7% nothing

This is a good point, I suppose.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:28 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by path12 View Post
I call BS on this, RendeR. Voting records are almost always valuable.


Not on day 2 path, if we magically hit a wolf on day 2 or 3 the early votes MIGHT lead to something, but over the long haul it takes a number of days of voting to get anything from them. Day 2 isn't a worthwhile grasp at that straw when we have another mechanic that works to our advantage.

thats all I actually said there.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:28 PM   #554
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Schmidty is going to get lynched tomorrow or Thursday....

I hope you're wrong.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:30 PM   #555
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I got my response from dubb - Pass didn't break down and confess, so I didn't learn squat.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:44 PM   #556
Tyrith
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Jeez, half the game is completely UTR at this point. We need a battery of UTR seeking missiles or some such.
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:49 PM   #557
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I've got to get a vote in. My feelings about lynch vs jail have been put out there, but I don't think it's going to matter much today since it seems more are in favor of the jail option.

But to be consistent I'm going to vote to lynch and will choose someone who has been quiet.

VOTE LYNCH USFLTECHMO
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Old 06-09-2009, 05:53 PM   #558
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Fine. Let's see if we can make this interesting. I know that voting lynch takes power away from me, but I'm still not quite sold that jailing every time is the best idea.

Vote Lynch USFLTechmo
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Old 06-09-2009, 06:00 PM   #559
Tyrith
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I'm going to hold off switching to lynch now to avoid a bandwagon, but I philosophically sympathize with your point and your choice of target. Hopefully he'll come show some signs of activity, but if not I would probably change in a couple of hours.
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Old 06-09-2009, 06:08 PM   #560
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Well if we're going to consider a lynch I think I'll keep it close with someone who's been at least semi-suspicious.

VOTE LYNCH CLAP

I can see both lynching and voting today, and we've got plenty of time to decide.
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Old 06-09-2009, 06:08 PM   #561
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lynching and jailing, rather
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:00 PM   #562
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I don't get why you guys are so anxious to lynch. If we jail people, it's like we get extra seer scans. What is the harm?

And once we do find out if the jailed folks are good or bad, we will learn something about voting history. Wolves will not want one of their own to go to jail because there is a great chance they'll be discovered by the king within 2-3 days.

So once the king finds a wolf we'll learn a lot. And remember, it's 20% chance every night for each person in jail. Soon Schmidty is going to get a hit on a player and we'll learn a lot.

Chief Rum's analysis is spot on and important:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
For the not, math inclined. If we jail someone every day, and those players remain in said jail, here are the chances by that day that we will have at least one aura scan:

After Night One (1 prisoner)== 20% chance to learn aura, 80% nothing
After Night Two (2 prisoners)==48.8% chance to learn aura, 51.2% nothing
After Night Three (3 prisoners)==73.8% chance to learn aura, 26.2% nothing
After Night Four (4 prisoners)==89.3% chance to learn aura, 10.7% nothing
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:00 PM   #563
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Seriously, I think it is a bad idea to lynch.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:03 PM   #564
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I tend to agree with KWhit, although I am concerned that if we pack the jail too much, the Dark one will bust open the prison, even if there are no wolves inside, just to spoil our plans.

So our BGs would need to be on their game.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:03 PM   #565
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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
Lathum makes some good points about using the mechanic to guide our decision making on a decent king, he's also spot on that BK, based on his play style and his attention to detail would make a fantastic king.

Personally though wouldn't it just be quicker to get a seer scan and somehow get that info out? I know its hard to do so without giving the seer away but I'm sure whomever that is could manage the task.

This pinged my wolf-dar a little bit. How do you propose the seer "somehow get that info out?"

This reads slightly like you're trying to get the seer to drop hints as to his identity, something that I think is a bad idea at this point because wolves can pick up on that just as easily as villagers can.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:04 PM   #566
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
I tend to agree with KWhit, although I am concerned that if we pack the jail too much, the Dark one will bust open the prison, even if there are no wolves inside, just to spoil our plans.

So our BGs would need to be on their game.

Agree. I'm thinking though that as long as the dark ones know that the prison has about a 50% chance of being guarded on a given night that they will stay far away.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:07 PM   #567
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Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
Fine. Let's see if we can make this interesting. I know that voting lynch takes power away from me, but I'm still not quite sold that jailing every time is the best idea.

Vote Lynch USFLTechmo


It doesn't really take anything away from you, what it does do is take away any chance we have of saving a villager from being lynched.

Jail == Chief rum's numbers on saving a villager's ass.

Lynching == 75-25 chance we kill a villager outright and lose them forever.

We have a valid alternative to wasting our players by lynching them, why is everyone so determined to ignore that and waste them anyway?
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:09 PM   #568
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
I tend to agree with KWhit, although I am concerned that if we pack the jail too much, the Dark one will bust open the prison, even if there are no wolves inside, just to spoil our plans.

So our BGs would need to be on their game.

What would be the benefit to the wovles of busting open the prison if there are no wolves inside? That makes zero sense to me. While villagers are in jail they don't count to our winning conditions, so that would be like the wolves giving us four or five more days to win.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:10 PM   #569
RendeR
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This pinged my wolf-dar a little bit. How do you propose the seer "somehow get that info out?"

This reads slightly like you're trying to get the seer to drop hints as to his identity, something that I think is a bad idea at this point because wolves can pick up on that just as easily as villagers can.


I agree, notice the fact that stated the fact that its not an easy task. I've tried it as the seer in the past and if done right you can manage to get your knowledge out.

Honestly with the fact that we have the jailing ability I really don't think the seer SHOULD be scanning anyone we're discussing, he should be going through all the other players in the game that aren't under fire currently.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:10 PM   #570
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What would be the benefit to the wovles of busting open the prison if there are no wolves inside? That makes zero sense to me. While villagers are in jail they don't count to our winning conditions, so that would be like the wolves giving us four or five more days to win.


Because by busting them out he makes us start over from scratch reloading the jail.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:11 PM   #571
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I find it a little interesting that I posted four possible "quiet" targets and picked one myself, Sndvls. Then several people have come in and targeted USFL instead with no reasoning. Why start a new quiet target rather than capitalizing on the one with one vote already?
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:12 PM   #572
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I find it a little interesting that I posted four possible "quiet" targets and picked one myself, Sndvls. Then several people have come in and targeted USFL instead with no reasoning. Why start a new quiet target rather than capitalizing on the one with one vote already?


Glad I wasn't the only one noticing that.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:12 PM   #573
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Because by busting them out he makes us start over from scratch reloading the jail.

But why would we care if they were all villagers? I mean, I realize we would not know that, but in the scenario proposed why would the wolves bust out a bunch of villagers just to confuse us. That would be helping us win.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:12 PM   #574
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If we jail players, time is our friend (since jailed players will be revealed to the King over time).

If we lynch players, time is our enemy (as the odds are that we lose 2 players per night).


I think that without any evidence, we should play defensively and make time our friend. When there is compelling evidence that someone may be a wolf, that's when we switch our strategy to lynching.

IMO, of course.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:14 PM   #575
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Agree. I'm thinking though that as long as the dark ones know that the prison has about a 50% chance of being guarded on a given night that they will stay far away.


This is what I think really helps us with the Jail plan, the dark one can't afford to get caught at the prison and a 50-50 shot at being detected, if I were a wolf, is not a chance I'm going to take.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:15 PM   #576
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But why would we care if they were all villagers? I mean, I realize we would not know that, but in the scenario proposed why would the wolves bust out a bunch of villagers just to confuse us. That would be helping us win.


because we don't KNOW they're villagers we would end up re-jailing a lot of the same people until we clear them. It buys the dark side time.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:15 PM   #577
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I find it a little interesting that I posted four possible "quiet" targets and picked one myself, Sndvls. Then several people have come in and targeted USFL instead with no reasoning. Why start a new quiet target rather than capitalizing on the one with one vote already?

Also notice that of the 3 people who targeted him, they split their votes between lynch and jail, which makes it more difficult to actually do anything to him.

Quote:
USFL Jail - 1 - Tyrith (542)
USFL lynch - 2 - path12 (557), Schmidty (558)


(conspiracy theory alert up ahead)

Is it possible they just want their votes to look good if/when later on USFL is revealed as a baddie?

I just found it odd.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:16 PM   #578
Lathum
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vote vount?
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:16 PM   #579
RendeR
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
If we jail players, time is our friend (since jailed players will be revealed to the King over time).

If we lynch players, time is our enemy (as the odds are that we lose 2 players per night).


I think that without any evidence, we should play defensively and make time our friend. When there is compelling evidence that someone may be a wolf, that's when we switch our strategy to lynching.

IMO, of course.


I agree with this. There is no rush people, we rush this, we lose, the numbers are against us. We use patience the numbers work for us.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:17 PM   #580
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I strongly believe the better mathematical play for the villagers is to jail instead of lynch (especially early on).

I imagine the wolves agree strategy-wise, so I am keeping a close eye on the bloodthirsty pro-lynchers.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:18 PM   #581
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I think it's this:

Day 2 Vote Count:

BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
SnDvls Jail - 1 - Autumn (494)
Clap Lynch - 2 - Saldana (503), Jackal (560)
Clap Jail - 1 - USFL (528)
USFL Jail - 1 - Tyrith (542)
USFL lynch - 2 - path12 (557), Schmidty (558)
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:18 PM   #582
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In that vein these are votes that are odd to me:

clap's vote on Render with no exlanation I could find
Tyrith voting USFL instead of Sndvl at that point
Path and Schmidty going at USFL as well with a lynch vote.

I guess after Tyrith Sndvl and USFL both had votes, but it still seems a bit off to me. I'm going to keep my vote on Sndvl, I wonder if there isn't something going on there.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:18 PM   #583
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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
It doesn't really take anything away from you, what it does do is take away any chance we have of saving a villager from being lynched.

Jail == Chief rum's numbers on saving a villager's ass.

Lynching == 75-25 chance we kill a villager outright and lose them forever.

We have a valid alternative to wasting our players by lynching them, why is everyone so determined to ignore that and waste them anyway?

I guess I see jailing's draw-backs as two things:

1. We sit around twiddling our thumbs without any type of voting history to go on until we happen to find a wolf, which could be days.

2.Like Chief said, if we jam the jail full, we risk the DO getting a bunch of villagers in one shot.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:20 PM   #584
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I guess I see jailing's draw-backs as two things:

1. We sit around twiddling our thumbs without any type of voting history to go on until we happen to find a wolf, which could be days.

2.Like Chief said, if we jam the jail full, we risk the DO getting a bunch of villagers in one shot.

I take back #2, since he doesn't actually kill them from what I remember. He still muddies up the waters though.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:20 PM   #585
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I'm going to put a vote on a member of the Pro-Lynch party for reasons I expressed above.

Vote Jail Saldana
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:20 PM   #586
Autumn
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because we don't KNOW they're villagers we would end up re-jailing a lot of the same people until we clear them. It buys the dark side time.

I can see that, but if the wolves left them in there they're out of the game, which subtracts time from the village. I don't see that the wolves would benefit in teh end. If they had four or five villagers in jail they're four or five steps closer to having won.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:21 PM   #587
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I take back #2, since he doesn't actually kill them from what I remember. He still muddies up the waters though.

But assuming the BGs are vigilant, there would be a 50/50 chance of the Dark one getting caught if he tries to attack the jail. I'm betting the Dark Ones stay far away from the jail.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:22 PM   #588
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I guess I see jailing's draw-backs as two things:

1. We sit around twiddling our thumbs without any type of voting history to go on until we happen to find a wolf, which could be days.

2.Like Chief said, if we jam the jail full, we risk the DO getting a bunch of villagers in one shot.



How does he get a bunch in one shot? he can't kill them all? Or did I miss some ability that lets him slaughter everyone in jail?
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:22 PM   #589
Autumn
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I'm going to put a vote on a member of the Pro-Lynch party for reasons I expressed above.

Vote Jail Saldana

Another candidate? Yikes.

I would love some consensus around consolidating at this point.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:23 PM   #590
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I can see that, but if the wolves left them in there they're out of the game, which subtracts time from the village. I don't see that the wolves would benefit in teh end. If they had four or five villagers in jail they're four or five steps closer to having won.

You're missing the beauty of the jail.

If we lynch the people instead of jailing them, they're removed from the game also. But if they're in jail, after a couple of days we'll get scans on them and have a chance to move them back into the game if they're good.

It gives us second chances to fix any bad votes we make. It is a very powerful tool for the villagers!
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:24 PM   #591
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I can see that, but if the wolves left them in there they're out of the game, which subtracts time from the village. I don't see that the wolves would benefit in teh end. If they had four or five villagers in jail they're four or five steps closer to having won.


the more people we have in jail the higher our odds of getting reads on them, thereby taking away from the DO's chances of winning. We find good auras we let them free, we find dark auras we kill them. After while he cannot allow them to just sit in there, the king COULD hit on everyone in one night. Thats a chance he can't afford to allow to happen.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:25 PM   #592
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What would be the benefit to the wovles of busting open the prison if there are no wolves inside? That makes zero sense to me. While villagers are in jail they don't count to our winning conditions, so that would be like the wolves giving us four or five more days to win.

Good point. I was thinking second level, though, if the candidates outside the prison were getting a little tighter on the wolves, maybe they do this to send the village off looking for the "wolves" that were freed. Or they could be trying to make it easier to kill someone in the prison without having to use the Dark One.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:32 PM   #593
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Glad I wasn't the only one noticing that.

Because SnDvls is a vet with a reputation and isn't typically a quiet player, period.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:34 PM   #594
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Do we have an updated count with who hasn't voted?
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:35 PM   #595
Chief Rum
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Because SnDvls is a vet with a reputation and isn't typically a quiet player, period.

I don't recall the point of contention leading to this statement, so don't confuse this with me agreeing or disagreeing with whatever stance you're trying to make. But I disagree with your assertion SnDvls isn't typically a quiet player.

I'm not saying he's the quietest, but he's hardly ever one of the more prolific posters, much more of a pick your spot guy. I am constantly finding him to be a bit under the radar when he's in the game.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:37 PM   #596
Tyrith
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I don't recall the point of contention leading to this statement, so don't confuse this with me agreeing or disagreeing with whatever stance you're trying to make. But I disagree with your assertion SnDvls isn't typically a quiet player.

I'm not saying he's the quietest, but he's hardly ever one of the more prolific posters, much more of a pick your spot guy. I am constantly finding him to be a bit under the radar when he's in the game.

Yeah, but he's not quiet like USFL/ntn/etc. The kind of quiet that is detrimental to the village. If I'm going to vote to encourage someone to change behavior I'm going to do it to someone that's not useful. SnDvls has historically been a useful villager.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:38 PM   #597
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Do we have an updated count with who hasn't voted?

I'll save you the trouble on me at least, as I have not voted.

I am going to vote to Jail someone, I know that, but my issue is the main candidate for jailing is BK, and as I put forth before, I don't think it benefits the village to put the potential clearing of BK into Schmidty's hands, given how BK nom'd Schmidty from the start. Way too obvious? Sure, but coming off last game, it seems at best an indifferent play, and at worst fairly risky and ripe for manipulation.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:39 PM   #598
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Day 2 Vote Count:

BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
SnDvls Jail - 1 - Autumn (494)
Clap Lynch - 2 - Saldana (503), Jackal (560)
Clap Jail - 1 - USFL (528)
USFL Jail - 1 - Tyrith (542)
USFL lynch - 2 - path12 (557), Schmidty (558)
Saldana Jail - KWhit (585)


Yet to Vote: Barkeep, CR, DT, Danny, KWhit, Render, Telle,
Invalid Vote: Clap
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:40 PM   #599
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Feel free to double-check that vote count, but I believe it's right.
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Old 06-09-2009, 07:40 PM   #600
Tyrith
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And as it comes to the other two - lerr was talkative last game, Martin was somewhat talkative and voting for him to try to get him to talk is counterproductive if he's already gone to bed. This hasn't been a terribly exciting game so far, so I'm willing to give someone a pass for not being too talkative now.

So Autumn, you posted a list of four people - how come you picked SnDvls and not one of the others, knowing he hasn't played in a long time?
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