Front Office Football Central  

Go Back   Front Office Football Central > Main Forums > Werewolf Games
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read Statistics

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 06-09-2009, 09:22 PM   #701
claphamsa
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
ok, im withdrwaling, I have too much going on, and I cant say i realy care anymore. im sorry

Im sure ill be back, but i shouldnt be, this just isnt fun anymore.
__________________
Dominating Warewolf for 0 games!

GIT R DUN!!!
claphamsa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:27 PM   #702
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:27 PM   #703
dubb93
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
As the Woebegone Prison guards make their last rounds before night fall they discover the cell door to Passacaglia’s cell is wide open. After a search of the grounds Pass is nowhere to be found. Evidence collected suggests Pass is in fact alive and not dead. The evidence also suggests Pass’s escape was an inside job.

Abe has replaced Clap. All votes for Clap have been transferred to Abe. Pass in no longer in jail.

1. Barkeep49
2. lerriuqs
3. USFLTechmo
4. Abe
5. MartinD
6. hoopsguy - Vanilla Villager, Killed Night 1
7. Passacaglia
8. Telle
9. The Jackal
10. Danny
11. Autumn
12. Lathum
13. SnDvls
14. RendeR
15. Chief Rum
16. saldana
17. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith
19. path12
20. KWhit
21. Schmidty - Elected King Day 1
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?

Last edited by dubb93 : 06-09-2009 at 09:28 PM.
dubb93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:28 PM   #704
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.

Ugh... Grammar police have at me... "Their" should be "they're" above.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:29 PM   #705
Schmidty
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whitmore, CA
What the hell?
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross
Schmidty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:29 PM   #706
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
As the Woebegone Prison guards make their last rounds before night fall they discover the cell door to Passacagliaís cell is wide open. After a search of the grounds Pass is nowhere to be found. Evidence collected suggests Pass is in fact alive and not dead. The evidence also suggests Passís escape was an inside job.

Say what?
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:30 PM   #707
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Ok assuming 4 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 10% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 5 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 13% chance of finding one or two wolves.

Assuming 4 starting wolves we have a 20% chance of lynching one tonight randomly. Assuming 5 starting wolves we have a 25% chance of lynching one tonight randomly.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:30 PM   #708
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
If the jailed people can be broken free at any time without the benefit of a bodyguard keeping watch, I will rethink my entire strategy.

Ugh...
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:31 PM   #709
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Um, so Pass was freed from jail somehow and judging by Schmidty's reaction, it doesn't appear it was him (at least admitting to it).

And then we now have Abe in the game instead of Clap
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:32 PM   #710
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.
No it is right. The odds of having found Pass last night are 0, not 20%. Therefore tonight the odds of finding one person's aurora is 36%, not 49% as CR originally posted.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:32 PM   #711
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Ok assuming 4 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 10% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 5 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 13% chance of finding one or two wolves.

Assuming 4 starting wolves we have a 20% chance of lynching one tonight randomly. Assuming 5 starting wolves we have a 25% chance of lynching one tonight randomly.

I'd feel pretty good about their only being 4 starting and 1 convert. Based on the recent discussions we had about ideal wolf:villager ratio, I think it is unlikely Dubb gave the wolves 5 starting and 1 convert.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:32 PM   #712
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
And latest events are only reaffirming what I'm saying.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:32 PM   #713
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
UNVOTE JAIL ABE
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM   #714
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
No it is right. The odds of having found Pass last night are 0, not 20%. Therefore tonight the odds of finding one person's aurora is 36%, not 49% as CR originally posted.

Why was it 0% last night?
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM   #715
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I'd feel pretty good about their only being 4 starting and 1 convert. Based on the recent discussions we had about ideal wolf:villager ratio, I think it is unlikely Dubb gave the wolves 5 starting and 1 convert.
I agree. I feel good about 4+1.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM   #716
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
In light of new events - I think this was clap being clap and not clap being a wolf.
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM   #717
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
Why was it 0% last night?
Because the scan has happened and it failed. When the dice were rolled it was 20%. It is now 0 as we know that it didn't hit the random chance.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:34 PM   #718
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Get back in your pen.

VOTE JAIL PASSACAGLIA
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:34 PM   #719
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I feel like we are barking up the wrong tree completely today, I wouldn't be opposed to lynching someone and then even being an all new candidate.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:34 PM   #720
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
Why was it 0% last night?
It's important to remember this about statistics, is that past results don't affect the odds of the next roll. So if I flip a coin and it comes up heads, the next time it's still 50/50 that it will come up heads, even though only 1/4 of the time that will happen. But after I flip the coin the first time my odds of heads the next time are NOT effected by the previous flip.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:35 PM   #721
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Because the scan has happened and it failed. When the dice were rolled it was 20%. It is now 0 as we know that it didn't hit the random chance.

Ah, that yeah
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:35 PM   #722
dubb93
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), Autumn (635), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Pass Jail - 1 - Tyrith (718)


Yet to Vote: Danny, Render, Pass
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?

Last edited by dubb93 : 06-09-2009 at 09:40 PM.
dubb93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:36 PM   #723
USFLTecmo
H.S. Freshman Team
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Given that we have seen the major flaw in the math that I didn't see earlier, I hereby pull off of the "MUST JAIL" theory. I'm not changing my vote at this point, but I have to wonder why we wouldn't benefit if we just took this as a normal game of werewolf, and not let The Dark One screw with us, or a bad king choice screw with us either.
USFLTecmo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:36 PM   #724
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Um, anyone want to talk about Pass? I'm remembering Tombstone right about now...
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:36 PM   #725
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
The person I feel the best about voting right now is Sndvls, or Telle.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:37 PM   #726
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
The person I feel the best about voting right now is Sndvls, or Telle.

Why Telle?
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:38 PM   #727
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
I am frustrated by how many people we have here and there's no real movement or discussion about lynching/jailing based on the points I'm bringing up. I feel pretty strongly that lynching is the way to go and would love to see some movement.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:38 PM   #728
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.

Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:39 PM   #729
USFLTecmo
H.S. Freshman Team
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?
USFLTecmo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:40 PM   #730
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
I am frustrated by how many people we have here and there's no real movement or discussion about lynching/jailing based on the points I'm bringing up. I feel pretty strongly that lynching is the way to go and would love to see some movement.

And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:40 PM   #731
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrith View Post
Why Telle?

It's a small thing, but yesterday when I voted Barkeep I thought Pass was the leading vote getter. When I made the vote, Telle pointed out that Barkeep was in the lead. I asked her to post the vote count since she seemed to know. She posted it very quickly. She obviously had the vote count done and handy, but chose not to post it until I pointed it out. And it had been a long while since there was any vote count.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:40 PM   #732
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.

We have the ability to potentially confirm our votes over a long period of time, in an unpredictable way. I think a mix strategy is called for, personally.
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:41 PM   #733
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.

Of course, I have no idea of the mechanic that allowed Pass to escape, so my strategy may be completely off base.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:41 PM   #734
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by USFLTecmo View Post
At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?
We have a lot of players here right now. It's only too late if you decide it is.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:41 PM   #735
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Does anyone really think Abe/clap is bad at this point?
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:41 PM   #736
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I'm going to go with that even though it's not something definitive.

Vote jail Telle. I am not necessarily opposed to a lynching either and will switch if others want.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:42 PM   #737
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
so why would Pass bust out?
Lathum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:42 PM   #738
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by USFLTecmo View Post
At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?

I think we should let that play out and not make rushed assumptions in the next 15 minutes.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:43 PM   #739
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
My "Must Jail" strategy assumed that the wolves would have to break out the jailed person in their night action which would give the BG a chance to guard the prison. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Color me seriously confused.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:43 PM   #740
USFLTecmo
H.S. Freshman Team
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Okay BK. I'm around. Convince me to change my vote.
USFLTecmo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:44 PM   #741
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Well, no one is saying anything and we're just sitting on the fact that the person about to go to jail is mostly going to jail because the player they succeeded seemed to be on some kind of tilt today.
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:44 PM   #742
Telle
College Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
It's a small thing, but yesterday when I voted Barkeep I thought Pass was the leading vote getter. When I made the vote, Telle pointed out that Barkeep was in the lead. I asked her to post the vote count since she seemed to know. She posted it very quickly. She obviously had the vote count done and handy, but chose not to post it until I pointed it out. And it had been a long while since there was any vote count.

Umm.. no. I keep it up to date in Excel in a slightly different format. I tend to post it whenever somebody asks for it.. takes a couple of minutes to do.
Telle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:44 PM   #743
USFLTecmo
H.S. Freshman Team
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
My "Must Jail" strategy assumed that the wolves would have to break out the jailed person in their night action which would give the BG a chance to guard the prison. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Color me seriously confused.

Ditto. I hopped off the bandwagon when I realized that could happen so easily. That's why I'm a bit worried about Schmidty at this point.
USFLTecmo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:46 PM   #744
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by USFLTecmo View Post
Ditto. I hopped off the bandwagon when I realized that could happen so easily. That's why I'm a bit worried about Schmidty at this point.

Well, I was worried about Schmidty when he seemed to lobby to be King so adamently, but we all know the king has to be replaced at some point, so I'm not too worried about going his direction yet.

But the inside job thing does make me wonder about him.
KWhit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:46 PM   #745
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telle View Post
Umm.. no. I keep it up to date in Excel in a slightly different format. I tend to post it whenever somebody asks for it.. takes a couple of minutes to do.

Like I said, it is a small thing, but it pinged me a little bit. It's not something damning, but I don't really like the current candidates.
Danny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:47 PM   #746
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.

Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.
Yeah the math on that is tricky. I'm having a little trouble putting it together. But, according to my calculations, there's only a 4% chance that we learn 0 people's auras by Day 5. But remember just because we learn an aura doesn't find us a wolf. Randomly picking someone to lynch is going to produce better results until we've got a fairly long timetable.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:47 PM   #747
Schmidty
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whitmore, CA
If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross
Schmidty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:48 PM   #748
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
BK, considering changing your lynch candidate based on clap dropping out?
Lathum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:48 PM   #749
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.

Honestly, I think the vote should be just about anything other than what it is at this point.
Tyrith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 09:48 PM   #750
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
BTW: These calculations are even more shot with Pass not being in jail. That 4% actually is 12% now because we'll only have 1 person in jail tonight. And that assumes no more breakouts.
Barkeep49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:54 AM.



Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.