Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424) - Page 9

Fouts · 10-26-2006, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well All I can say is I have been there before. I very rarely am a night kill by bad guys because usually the good guys find some reason to want to lynch me in the first few days. I talk alot in WW games, throw out alot of ideas (some of them better than others) and I want to encourage others to contribute with meaningful conversation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'll go ahead and say what my thoughts are. I'm not too worried about dying tonight, but I have a feeling that I won't live past night 2 in this game. So I want to try to get some forward momentum going here.

These posts don't match up. You say you very rarely are a night kill, yet in the night post you have a feeling that you won't live past night 2.

Your reasoned that st.cronin and I aren't on the same team, so one of us is bad. Did you get that from..

Fouts votes Cronin
Cronin votes hoops (changed later to bullet)
Hoops votes bullet
?

As Lathum said, you are playing the helpful villager, but with a twist. You are providing names for people to go after. I am sure a good guy wouldn't be throwing names out there on night 1 with little evidence. I submit that either you are the Police Chief (nope), and you know who the STARS are, or you are working for the bad guys. More likely you are hoping that throwing hints out there might get people thinking you are the PC.

saldana · 10-26-2006, 06:09 AM

i dont know where alan is getting his fouts theory from, but as for right now, i am leaning toward fouts and cronin both being good guys, and hoops being some form of a bad guy....pretty sure lathum is also a good guy.

of course i could have no idea what the hell i am talking about, as well

spleen1015 · 10-26-2006, 06:28 AM

Well, my idea for yesterday didn't work, it seems. It does help me narrow things down a bit, though. Let's see what happens after night actions.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts

And finally,

Lest we all forget, Alan started the voting on bullet, and campaigned to have him lynched. Now he is creating a smokescreen for day 2, so we all forget the blood on his hands.

I have no problems having responsibility for sacrificing Bulletsponge.

But if you think I'm pushing for an endgame strategy on day 2, that is fairly bold.

Yep, the game started with so many bad guys, we can win if we just lynch fouts tommorrow!

I am actually really shocked that no one else has seen what I saw on this.

If no one else sees how either Fouts or St.Cronin has to be a bad guy, then well I am dissapointed in all of you.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts

These posts don't match up. You say you very rarely are a night kill, yet in the night post you have a feeling that you won't live past night 2.

Your reasoned that st.cronin and I aren't on the same team, so one of us is bad. Did you get that from..

Fouts votes Cronin
Cronin votes hoops (changed later to bullet)
Hoops votes bullet
?

As Lathum said, you are playing the helpful villager, but with a twist. You are providing names for people to go after. I am sure a good guy wouldn't be throwing names out there on night 1 with little evidence. I submit that either you are the Police Chief (nope), and you know who the STARS are, or you are working for the bad guys. More likely you are hoping that throwing hints out there might get people thinking you are the PC.

I will come right out and say I am not the police chief. And I am pretty sure if you turn up a bad guy that I won't live past night 2

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 07:06 AM

Alan, if I was thinking about going along with your Fouts/Cronin theory I would choose to flip the order around and remove Cronin from the chess board first. As I mentioned last night, I hope that we have more information than just the votes to work with come tomorrow. But if not, then:

1. Fouts voted for Cronin, Cronin voted for Bullet - advantage Fouts
2. Cronin initially voted for me - advantage Fouts

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:08 AM

You know, I feel like I am playing this game Blade style.. just without the typing in all capital bold letters and with a few more smilies

But seriously, take a step back, look at day 1 and you will see either Fouts or St.Cronin has to be a bad guy. Once you realize that, you then will see what the next step in that progression is and see how if Fouts is the bad guy St.Cronin and Hoops become pretty close to 100% trusted.

Its a big connect the dots game. Don't take my word for it, look through the posts, its right there in front of you. If you don't see it, go back and look again till you do.

Anyone saying Fouts or St.cronin both could be good guys either haven't looked hard enough or are also a bad guy trying to make a cover.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, if I was thinking about going along with your Fouts/Cronin theory I would choose to flip the order around and remove Cronin from the chess board first. As I mentioned last night, I hope that we have more information than just the votes to work with come tomorrow. But if not, then:

1. Fouts voted for Cronin, Cronin voted for Bullet - advantage Fouts
2. Cronin initially voted for me - advantage Fouts

I honestly don't know which of the two are the bad guy. I just know 1 of the 2 is. The reason I am picking Fouts first is because if he is the bad guy, it also clears you in my mind.

If St.Cronin ends up being the bad guy, it doesn't do anything to help clear you or not. So to me Fouts being the bad guy of the two is the more convienant route for me as it would then clear 2 people. However I realize that could be wishful thinking. It might just be St.Cronin who is bad which then clears no one.

I have a feeling mid-day I might be able to figure out which of the two is bad based on how people vote.. but thats a gamble.

All i know is either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 07:16 AM

Alan, I assume both being bad falls under the 99.9%?

I do not have the same level of certainty on both not being good, although I think it is pretty likely both are not good. And I've read the sequence of posts you are referring to a couple of times as I was pretty heavily involved in them.

If Fouts is a bad guy all that would imply is that Cronin and I are not on his team, not that we are STARS. So while I'm happy to find my way onto trusted lists, I would prefer that it is based on solid conclusions. I don't think that either Cronin or I would deserve to be 100% trusted in this scenario. Just a check mark in the good book, that you can largely eliminate us from one bad team.

If Cronin is bad, then you can move a step closer to accepting my claims. But I don't know if it says anything about Fouts one way or the other. I would prefer Cronin as a target over Fouts for the reasons listed in Post #406.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I assume both being bad falls under the 99.9%?

I do not have the same level of certainty on both not being good, although I think it is pretty likely both are not good. And I've read the sequence of posts you are referring to a couple of times as I was pretty heavily involved in them.

If Fouts is a bad guy all that would imply is that Cronin and I are not on his team, not that we are STARS. So while I'm happy to find my way onto trusted lists, I would prefer that it is based on solid conclusions. I don't think that either Cronin or I would deserve to be 100% trusted in this scenario. Just a check mark in the good book, that you can largely eliminate us from one bad team.

If Cronin is bad, then you can move a step closer to accepting my claims. But I don't know if it says anything about Fouts one way or the other. I would prefer Cronin as a target over Fouts for the reasons listed in Post #406.

I am 99.9% sure that if Fouts is bad, you and cronin are good.

If Cronin is bad, it doesn't tell me anything about you or Fouts. (You both could be good or bad)

So yes, both could be bad, but I can gurantuee you that at least 1 of the 2 are bad. The reason I want to go fouts today is like i said, its more convienant for me. It will tell me more about you and Cronin from his allegiance.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:22 AM

And hoops, to connect the dots, read more than just that sequence of posts. The posts first thing in the morning are important where the votes took place, then posts mid-day are important, and then the final vote total is important.

It truly is right there for you to see.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:23 AM

Off to work. I'll be back around night action deadline time. Can't wait to see what happens.

LoneStarGirl · 10-26-2006, 07:26 AM

Haha did bullet really not know he was playing? Because i wouldn't doubt it. Thats funny. And Alant, I really would have to disagree taht either cronin or fouts has to be a bad guy. Why? Because i think you just pulled that out of your ass... If NTN would have voted for Glen would that mean either Glen or Cronin would have to be a wolf? I think not

KWhit · 10-26-2006, 07:31 AM

I don't see the Fouts / St Cronin thing, but I haven't looked closely at their posts yet.

Hopefully, I'll have some time to pour over them later today.

LoneStarGirl · 10-26-2006, 07:40 AM

You know whats funny, I just went through the first page and Bullet never said he wanted to play.... he just said BRAINS.... oh well, no harm no foul.

I think for the first time in WW history we lynched somebody on the first day without them getting pissed.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 07:50 AM

Anyone else find it ironic that the guy who has potential for a double vote in the game is the guy who doesn't know he is playing and thus doesn't post?

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Haha did bullet really not know he was playing? Because i wouldn't doubt it. Thats funny. And Alant, I really would have to disagree taht either cronin or fouts has to be a bad guy. Why? Because i think you just pulled that out of your ass... If NTN would have voted for Glen would that mean either Glen or Cronin would have to be a wolf? I think not

Nope, not pulling anything out of my ass. I guarantee you one of the two is a bad guy.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

You know whats funny, I just went through the first page and Bullet never said he wanted to play.... he just said BRAINS.... oh well, no harm no foul.

I think for the first time in WW history we lynched somebody on the first day without them getting pissed.

Yep, thats why I don't feel bad about pushing for his death. Its funny that Fouts is saying that I want to create a smokescreen for pushing people to vote bulletsponge, but in fact, I'll do the opposite.. I'll say even after the fact I take full credit for it.

1) Hoopsguy might be bad, I don't know yet.. but day 1, I would rather have a dead STARS player that isn't going to contribute anything to the game than Hoopsguy dead good or bad. Someone like Hoops I would rather wait till I have a better feel before I go after.

2) It provided us enough information to make an -Educated- Day 2 vote, which I am trying to present today.

So nope, I'm perfectly fine with having to lose one of our team on day 1, especially since he wasn't going to contribute anything anyways. (not even realizing he was in the game.)

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:13 AM

Alan if you're not willing to now, then after morning I think you should come right out with your theory. I would prefer to know why I'm voting for somebody, rather than just trusting somebody I have no reason to trust.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:28 AM

dola

In fact, it is now past deadline ... so you may want to publish your theory before night results, in case you are not able to.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:31 AM

Well, I have no idea if I am going to get whacked tonight or not. Since its past deadline now I can say that I was bluffing about not being afraid that I would get night 1 in a way hoping they would be afraid to come after me.

Don't know if they caught my bluff or not, so I will say now that its deadline in case I do die, I will reel everything back in.

I guess a little bit of me is dissapointed that no one else has picked up on this. It makes me have a small fear that some of the people who I think most of in WW games are all bad guys and did pick up on it, just hiding the fact to try to save teammates.

I'm going to reel myself back in a little bit now so I'm a little less Blade-gung-ho-crazy-mode and a bit more analytical now. Basically here is the deal. Think about this:

-The police chief won't vote for a good guy
-Bulletsponge was a good guy
-The police chief would not have voted for Bulletsponge
-The police chief voted for someone other than Bulletsponge
-Only St.Cronin and Fouts received votes besides Bulletsponge yesterday
-The police Chief voted for Either St.Cronin or Fouts
-Either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad.

Thats how I drew the first half of my dots together. Now that I have done that, I am sure most of you can put together the last half. Hope this is far more analytical and little less off the wall for you all.

Like I said I am a bit dissapointed that no one else put this together

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:33 AM

dola, and its a bad thing too because now i am highly suspicious of some of the better players in the game.. and I dont want that to cloud my vision going forward in future days here. I just can't help but think you all aren't on my team anymore.

spleen1015 · 10-26-2006, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well, I have no idea if I am going to get whacked tonight or not. Since its past deadline now I can say that I was bluffing about not being afraid that I would get night 1 in a way hoping they would be afraid to come after me.

Don't know if they caught my bluff or not, so I will say now that its deadline in case I do die, I will reel everything back in.

I guess a little bit of me is dissapointed that no one else has picked up on this. It makes me have a small fear that some of the people who I think most of in WW games are all bad guys and did pick up on it, just hiding the fact to try to save teammates.

I'm going to reel myself back in a little bit now so I'm a little less Blade-gung-ho-crazy-mode and a bit more analytical now. Basically here is the deal. Think about this:

-The police chief won't vote for a good guy
-Bulletsponge was a good guy
-The police chief would not have voted for Bulletsponge
-The police chief voted for someone other than Bulletsponge
-Only St.Cronin and Fouts received votes besides Bulletsponge yesterday
-The police Chief voted for Either St.Cronin or Fouts
-Either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad.

Thats how I drew the first half of my dots together. Now that I have done that, I am sure most of you can put together the last half. Hope this is far more analytical and little less off the wall for you all.

Like I said I am a bit dissapointed that no one else put this together

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

I agree. Who knows what the police chief will actually do, too. I've been in some games where roled players just did some completely goofy things. Heck, look at AT's game, where succesive villager sherrifs made poor play after poor play.

I think it's a long shot, and I'm going to wait to see what night brings before I place my vote.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

Chubby · 10-26-2006, 08:45 AM

Results and PMs on their way

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

I still don't understand, though - what does hoops have to do with that theory?

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I still don't understand, though - what does hoops have to do with that theory?

That part I won't talk about. We can just go from point A to B right now and see where that goes.

spleen1015 · 10-26-2006, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

Bullet has a 3 vote advantage. I think it was safe to say that he was going to be the one that would be lynched. I think it is the safe play by the chief to vote for him at this point.

What your theory has done is shoot holes in my strategy. So, know I don't know what I want to do today.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Bullet has a 3 vote advantage. I think it was safe to say that he was going to be the one that would be lynched. I think it is the safe play by the chief to vote for him at this point.

What your theory has done is shoot holes in my strategy. So, know I don't know what I want to do today.

A police chief who votes for his own team mates is a rather pointless and counter-productive role.

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 08:55 AM

Alan, I think your theory has some merit but I'm not sold on it. THe police chief role almost has to be played like a wolf role in a normal game. Very often early on a wolf will vote for another wolf to buy himself leverage later in games. I think it's very possible the same thing could happen here otherwise the zombies/umbrella would be able to narrow the field pretty early.

A savy police cheif would realize that at some point a STARS member is gonna be executed so why not "hide in the open" Especially if it's a foregone conclusion it was gonna come down to 2 players who are probably on the same side like yeaterday. Why would the chief put himself in the open like that, IMO it would be a stupid play.

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

A police chief who votes for his own team mates is a rather pointless and counter-productive role.

not if both choices are his teammates. It would look alot more suspiscous to try and deflect people another direction on day one. I think the chief would have to "roll with the punches"

Chubby · 10-26-2006, 08:57 AM

As day breaks the citizens of Raccoon City converge on the town square to see what happened over night. Was there any attacks? Was everyone ok?

A quick head count reveals that they are missing someone. Who is it?

Everyone looks around but no one can seem to find KWhit. The group heads to KWhit's house to find him in his bed dead, with bite marks all over his head and what's left of his brains oozing out. A further inspection of the house and body reveals little besides a gun and a holster.

Day 2 Ends Thursday at 11pm EST

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 08:58 AM

dole- according to the records NTN was the only one who voted other then St.Cronin or bullet so if St. Cronin is good as well does that mean NTN is the chief. Good job putting that target on him...

BrianD · 10-26-2006, 08:58 AM

Alan, I think you should have kept your theory to yourself for a while at least. Depending on how things go, we could have the chief identified today. That is way too early. As far as waiting to see who else figured it out, I don't think you gave people enough time. I had gone through the same thought process as you and came up with the same idea (aside from some of your trust ideas) on the chief, but now I can't proove it. I personally would have let your idea float for a while and see which of the two accused fought harder to discredit you.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

dole- according to the records NTN was the only one who voted other then St.Cronin or bullet so if St. Cronin is good as well does that mean NTN is the chief. Good job putting that target on him...

You are one of the people who I am pretty sure would have caught this. I'm guessing right now you are a bad guy just based on your behavior. Prove me wrong.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

Alan, I think you should have kept your theory to yourself for a while at least. Depending on how things go, we could have the chief identified today. That is way too early. As far as waiting to see who else figured it out, I don't think you gave people enough time. I had gone through the same thought process as you and came up with the same idea (aside from some of your trust ideas) on the chief, but now I can't proove it. I personally would have let your idea float for a while and see which of the two accused fought harder to discredit you.

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

Sure, I'm pretty sure many players here are smart enough to not have needed me to connect the dots for them. They knew before I even said anything that most likely they had a pool of people who likely were the police chief. I'm pretty sure they chose from that pool someone who is an experienced player who is a good player and not on their team.

I am guessing they thought there was a possibility Kwhit was the chief and tried to off him.

BrianD · 10-26-2006, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

There are a lot of smart people in the game, and the bad guys probably did know the same thing you did. I was just suggesting that by letting the info come out during the day, you would have had a chance to figure out where people stood by how they argued against you.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Sure, I'm pretty sure many players here are smart enough to not have needed me to connect the dots for them. They knew before I even said anything that most likely they had a pool of people who likely were the police chief. I'm pretty sure they chose from that pool someone who is an experienced player who is a good player and not on their team.

I am guessing they thought there was a possibility Kwhit was the chief and tried to off him.

Then you must think I'm a zombie.

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

You are one of the people who I am pretty sure would have caught this. I'm guessing right now you are a bad guy just based on your behavior. Prove me wrong.

What are you talking about? You'r theory basicly came right out and said it and FWIW if I was a bad guy I would keep my mouth shutly what you have accomplished is

1. Trying to get us to lynch fouts or St. Cronin, then when one of them is good lynch the other. Wasting 2 days.

2. Try and call me out because I blew holes in your theory

3. I can GUARENTEE !!!! at some point today you were going to say something like " I think the bodyguard has no choice but to protect NTN tonight" thus giving the zombies an uncontested shot.

All in all that kind of screws things up for a few days while the zombies run amuck.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Then you must think I'm a zombie.

I've already said that I feel pretty confident either you or Fouts are a bad guy.. and possibly both are.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

What are you talking about? You'r theory basicly came right out and said it and FWIW if I was a bad guy I would keep my mouth shutly what you have accomplished is

1. Trying to get us to lynch fouts or St. Cronin, then when one of them is good lynch the other. Wasting 2 days.

2. Try and call me out because I blew holes in your theory

3. I can GUARENTEE !!!! at some point today you were going to say something like " I think the bodyguard has no choice but to protect NTN tonight" thus giving the zombies an uncontested shot.

All in all that kind of screws things up for a few days while the zombies run amuck.

Would you rather us vote for you today instead of St.cronin or Fouts? I don't see you giving us anyone else better to go on. Right now intentional or not, you look like you are trying to protect a team mate really strongly.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:27 AM

After thinking things over, i think the best move today is

Vote St.Cronin

So I'll get this show started.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 09:33 AM

ugh

You're wrong, Alan.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 09:34 AM

I should seriously adopt the utr strategy when given a villager role.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I should seriously adopt the utr strategy when given a villager role.

I am not voting you because you gave ideas yesterday. In fact I gave you many chances to elaborate and you ignored most of those points, either disappearing from the thread or just not responding to the questions.

I've been pretty clear on why I'm voting you. The only question in my head was if I was going to vote you or Fouts

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 09:36 AM

dola, and I'm not convinced I'll stay on you. I might switch to Fouts still. I'm not sure which is the better path to play out today.

Chubby · 10-26-2006, 09:40 AM

I have to work today 1pm - 1030pm EST just so everyone knows (I get several of these shifts which is why the day deadline is set at 11pm EST)

10-26-2006, 08:13 AM	#419
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Alan if you're not willing to now, then after morning I think you should come right out with your theory. I would prefer to know why I'm voting for somebody, rather than just trusting somebody I have no reason to trust. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 08:28 AM	#420
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	dola In fact, it is now past deadline ... so you may want to publish your theory before night results, in case you are not able to. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 09:33 AM	#446
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	ugh You're wrong, Alan. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 09:34 AM	#447
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I should seriously adopt the utr strategy when given a villager role. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 06:09 AM	#402
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	i dont know where alan is getting his fouts theory from, but as for right now, i am leaning toward fouts and cronin both being good guys, and hoops being some form of a bad guy....pretty sure lathum is also a good guy. of course i could have no idea what the hell i am talking about, as well

10-26-2006, 06:28 AM	#403
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	Well, my idea for yesterday didn't work, it seems. It does help me narrow things down a bit, though. Let's see what happens after night actions.

10-26-2006, 07:06 AM	#406
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, if I was thinking about going along with your Fouts/Cronin theory I would choose to flip the order around and remove Cronin from the chess board first. As I mentioned last night, I hope that we have more information than just the votes to work with come tomorrow. But if not, then: 1. Fouts voted for Cronin, Cronin voted for Bullet - advantage Fouts 2. Cronin initially voted for me - advantage Fouts

10-26-2006, 07:08 AM	#407
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	You know, I feel like I am playing this game Blade style.. just without the typing in all capital bold letters and with a few more smilies But seriously, take a step back, look at day 1 and you will see either Fouts or St.Cronin has to be a bad guy. Once you realize that, you then will see what the next step in that progression is and see how if Fouts is the bad guy St.Cronin and Hoops become pretty close to 100% trusted. Its a big connect the dots game. Don't take my word for it, look through the posts, its right there in front of you. If you don't see it, go back and look again till you do. Anyone saying Fouts or St.cronin both could be good guys either haven't looked hard enough or are also a bad guy trying to make a cover.

10-26-2006, 07:16 AM	#409
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, I assume both being bad falls under the 99.9%? I do not have the same level of certainty on both not being good, although I think it is pretty likely both are not good. And I've read the sequence of posts you are referring to a couple of times as I was pretty heavily involved in them. If Fouts is a bad guy all that would imply is that Cronin and I are not on his team, not that we are STARS. So while I'm happy to find my way onto trusted lists, I would prefer that it is based on solid conclusions. I don't think that either Cronin or I would deserve to be 100% trusted in this scenario. Just a check mark in the good book, that you can largely eliminate us from one bad team. If Cronin is bad, then you can move a step closer to accepting my claims. But I don't know if it says anything about Fouts one way or the other. I would prefer Cronin as a target over Fouts for the reasons listed in Post #406.

10-26-2006, 07:22 AM	#411
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	And hoops, to connect the dots, read more than just that sequence of posts. The posts first thing in the morning are important where the votes took place, then posts mid-day are important, and then the final vote total is important. It truly is right there for you to see.

10-26-2006, 07:23 AM	#412
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Off to work. I'll be back around night action deadline time. Can't wait to see what happens.

10-26-2006, 07:26 AM	#413
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Haha did bullet really not know he was playing? Because i wouldn't doubt it. Thats funny. And Alant, I really would have to disagree taht either cronin or fouts has to be a bad guy. Why? Because i think you just pulled that out of your ass... If NTN would have voted for Glen would that mean either Glen or Cronin would have to be a wolf? I think not

10-26-2006, 07:31 AM	#414
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I don't see the Fouts / St Cronin thing, but I haven't looked closely at their posts yet. Hopefully, I'll have some time to pour over them later today.

10-26-2006, 07:40 AM	#415
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	You know whats funny, I just went through the first page and Bullet never said he wanted to play.... he just said BRAINS.... oh well, no harm no foul. I think for the first time in WW history we lynched somebody on the first day without them getting pissed.

10-26-2006, 07:50 AM	#416
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Anyone else find it ironic that the guy who has potential for a double vote in the game is the guy who doesn't know he is playing and thus doesn't post?

10-26-2006, 08:31 AM	#421
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Well, I have no idea if I am going to get whacked tonight or not. Since its past deadline now I can say that I was bluffing about not being afraid that I would get night 1 in a way hoping they would be afraid to come after me. Don't know if they caught my bluff or not, so I will say now that its deadline in case I do die, I will reel everything back in. I guess a little bit of me is dissapointed that no one else has picked up on this. It makes me have a small fear that some of the people who I think most of in WW games are all bad guys and did pick up on it, just hiding the fact to try to save teammates. I'm going to reel myself back in a little bit now so I'm a little less Blade-gung-ho-crazy-mode and a bit more analytical now. Basically here is the deal. Think about this: -The police chief won't vote for a good guy -Bulletsponge was a good guy -The police chief would not have voted for Bulletsponge -The police chief voted for someone other than Bulletsponge -Only St.Cronin and Fouts received votes besides Bulletsponge yesterday -The police Chief voted for Either St.Cronin or Fouts -Either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad. Thats how I drew the first half of my dots together. Now that I have done that, I am sure most of you can put together the last half. Hope this is far more analytical and little less off the wall for you all. Like I said I am a bit dissapointed that no one else put this together

10-26-2006, 08:33 AM	#422
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	dola, and its a bad thing too because now i am highly suspicious of some of the better players in the game.. and I dont want that to cloud my vision going forward in future days here. I just can't help but think you all aren't on my team anymore.

10-26-2006, 08:45 AM	#426
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	Results and PMs on their way

10-26-2006, 08:55 AM	#431
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Alan, I think your theory has some merit but I'm not sold on it. THe police chief role almost has to be played like a wolf role in a normal game. Very often early on a wolf will vote for another wolf to buy himself leverage later in games. I think it's very possible the same thing could happen here otherwise the zombies/umbrella would be able to narrow the field pretty early. A savy police cheif would realize that at some point a STARS member is gonna be executed so why not "hide in the open" Especially if it's a foregone conclusion it was gonna come down to 2 players who are probably on the same side like yeaterday. Why would the chief put himself in the open like that, IMO it would be a stupid play.

10-26-2006, 08:57 AM	#433
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	As day breaks the citizens of Raccoon City converge on the town square to see what happened over night. Was there any attacks? Was everyone ok? A quick head count reveals that they are missing someone. Who is it? Everyone looks around but no one can seem to find KWhit. The group heads to KWhit's house to find him in his bed dead, with bite marks all over his head and what's left of his brains oozing out. A further inspection of the house and body reveals little besides a gun and a holster. Day 2 Ends Thursday at 11pm EST

10-26-2006, 08:58 AM	#434
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dole- according to the records NTN was the only one who voted other then St.Cronin or bullet so if St. Cronin is good as well does that mean NTN is the chief. Good job putting that target on him...

10-26-2006, 08:58 AM	#435
BrianD Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Alan, I think you should have kept your theory to yourself for a while at least. Depending on how things go, we could have the chief identified today. That is way too early. As far as waiting to see who else figured it out, I don't think you gave people enough time. I had gone through the same thought process as you and came up with the same idea (aside from some of your trust ideas) on the chief, but now I can't proove it. I personally would have let your idea float for a while and see which of the two accused fought harder to discredit you.

10-26-2006, 09:27 AM	#445
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	After thinking things over, i think the best move today is Vote St.Cronin So I'll get this show started.

10-26-2006, 09:36 AM	#449
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	dola, and I'm not convinced I'll stay on you. I might switch to Fouts still. I'm not sure which is the better path to play out today.

10-26-2006, 09:40 AM	#450
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	I have to work today 1pm - 1030pm EST just so everyone knows (I get several of these shifts which is why the day deadline is set at 11pm EST)

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