The Official MLB 2007 Thread

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Carpenter on DL

Yeah, that sucks.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

That home run by A-Rod doesn't count. The Yankees were already up by 5.

I am soooo glad he fell to me at #4 in the draft this year.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

But Barry was just breaking the rules. Really, not even that. Steroids were not banned.

(please read the sarcasm there, just said to prove a point)

lol...actually this is a really funny point in the context of our earlier discussion. Barry was cheating...and was NOT breaking any rules.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol...actually this is a really funny point in the context of our earlier discussion. Barry was cheating...and was NOT breaking any rules.

Hm. Maybe. But I would say he was doing neither within the context of Major League Baseball.

[Bearcat729]

And Josh Hamilton's first Major league hit is a 2 run HR tie the game in Arizona

[MrIllini]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

And Josh Hamilton's first Major league hit is a 2 run HR tie the game in Arizona

it's too bad the Reds suck :P

[Brownkeg8]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

And Josh Hamilton's first Major league hit is a 2 run HR tie the game in Arizona

He appears to have the John Daly appeal. A guy that has made mistakes but is well liked. So far he appears capable of producing

[larrymcg421]

Great start for the Braves so far, but there's still plenty to be worried about. Despite Davies strong performance, the 4-5 spot in the rotation is weak. Also, the situation at 1B and 2B is a disaster. Plus, we have no leadoff hitter.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Florida should have pulled the trigger on a deal for Benitez when the Giants were trying to give him away.

Julio does it again!

[dawgfan]

Potential awesome matchup today at Fenway as Felix Hernandez opposes Daisuke Matsuzaka.

[Ksyrup]

I meant to post that yesterday and forgot (the pitching matchup for tonight). Looking forward to it.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Hm. Maybe. But I would say he was doing neither within the context of Major League Baseball.

Insofar as steroids weren't specifically banned, yes, that is true. But I am talking overall with respect to cheating. Using steroids is cheating, whether it's in the rules or not. It is on that basis I call Barry a cheater. And it is on the fact that steroids were not addressed in baseball's rulebook that I point out Barry was not a "rule breaker", which is quite true.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Potential awesome matchup today at Fenway as Felix Hernandez opposes Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Wish I could watch that.

[Ksyrup]

You don't have ESPN?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Insofar as steroids weren't specifically banned, yes, that is true. But I am talking overall with respect to cheating. Using steroids is cheating, whether it's in the rules or not. It is on that basis I call Barry a cheater. And it is on the fact that steroids were not addressed in baseball's rulebook that I point out Barry was not a "rule breaker", which is quite true.

But what he was doing is, or can be construed as, the same as taking vitamins. He was taking a substance that supplemented his diet and and improved his body composition. This substance was not banned by the league.

I am merely playing devil's advocate and pointing out that this whole "rule breaker" vs. "cheater" argument is stupid. It is bad to do either.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You don't have ESPN?

I'll be at work.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

But what he was doing is, or can be construed as, the same as taking vitamins. He was taking a substance that supplemented his diet and and improved his body composition. This substance was not banned by the league.

I am merely playing devil's advocate and pointing out that this whole "rule breaker" vs. "cheater" argument is stupid. It is bad to do either.

Yeah, I see where you're coming from. I do disagree on the difference between cheater and rule breaker, though. While rule breakers run the gamut (from minor to major), cheating to me carries a connotation of being a more severe form of violation. It is an active attempt tp circumvent fair play. Rule breaking can be major, too, but the context I have used it in this thread is from the perspective that every single rule has to be followed (which is often near impossible) for you to not be a rule breaker. It's a question of grades. Speeding is a rule msot of us likely break every day. No one is going to call anyone a criminal based on speeding every day. Criminal is a form of word reserved for major crime generally, even though it can apply to every rule breaker. We have stronger words/terms for major rule breakers, so choosing to use the term "rule breaker", while in and of itself can refer to all rule breakers, is by its nature suggestive of a minor rule breaker.

And to me, cheater is on the level of "criminal", "major rule breaker", and so forth. So I don't equate the two--"cheater" and "rule breaker" on the same level as you do.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

But what he was doing is, or can be construed as, the same as taking vitamins. He was taking a substance that supplemented his diet and and improved his body composition. This substance was not banned by the league.

Steroids were banned from Major League Baseball in 1991 by Fay Vincent.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Steroids were banned from Major League Baseball in 1991 by Fay Vincent.

Really? Well, lol, I guess Barry was a rule breaker, too.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Steroids were banned from Major League Baseball in 1991 by Fay Vincent.

Not the form that Barry is accused (*coughdidcough*) of using.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Not the form that Barry is accused (*coughdidcough*) of using.

In the most literal sense, no it wasn't banned. However, thats because it wasn't known to even exist. Had it been a known substance, it would been labled both illegal (or at the very least controlled) and thus banned under Fay Vincent's guildelines.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Atocep

In the most literal sense, no it wasn't banned. However, thats because it wasn't known to even exist. Had it been a known substance, it would been labled both illegal (or at the very least controlled) and thus banned under Fay Vincent's guildelines.

As a logical thinking human being, I agree.

As devil's advocate, I do not.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I meant to post that yesterday and forgot (the pitching matchup for tonight). Looking forward to it.

The game is living up to the hype so far. Felix now has 12 consecutive shutout innings to start his season, and Daisuke has only given up 1 run.

[dawgfan]

Dola - and of course, as soon as I post that the M's add on two more runs.

Not that I'm complaining...

[Crapshoot]

Seriously - stupid Pacific time means I'm still at work. Damn it!

[henry296]

If you can turn on the Red Sox-Mariners game. Felix Hernadez is pitching a gem.

[hoopsguy]

Was wondering if there was any conversation here about this ...

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by henry296

If you can turn on the Red Sox-Mariners game. Felix Hernadez is pitching a gem.

Got that on and watching the Tigs/Os in a 0-0 game in the 7th. I love great pitching match ups, so this is awesome.

[henry296]

JD Drew with a clean single up the middle to break up the no-no.

[dawgfan]

Stay focused Felix - get us through the 8th and we can let Putz close it out next inning.

[dawgfan]

Looks like Felix is going to finish what he started. His pitch count is low enough that I'm not going to bitch about it.

[dawgfan]

The country just got to see what makes Felix so amazing - 17 groundball outs to only 4 fly outs, 6 K's to 2 walks and just the 1 hit and no runs.

[Terps]

Ugh, Sam Perlozzo needs to be fired. I DVR'ed the game since Loewen was pitching. Outstanding matchup between him and Verlander. He walked a little too many (4 in 5 innings), but he had the Tigers flailing at his pitches all night.

Anyway, onto why Perlozzo needs to be fired. Loewen goes 5 innings, and he decides to let all the bullpen guys pitch one inning. Parrish has filthy stuff, as evidenced by striking out the side in the 6th. Parrish also used to be a starter so he can throw more than one inning. Gone after the 6th. Bradford, Baez, Ray, Walker, and Williamson followed, all an inning each.

Walker, Parrish and Ray can all go more than one inning. So in the 12th it comes down to Kurt Birkins, who hasn't pitched yet for the O's this year, and gives up a grand slam. For one, he shouldn't be on the team to begin with. Brian Burres made the team out of spring training and got sent down before he even pitched in a game.

Not to mention the fact that Freddie Bynum is on the team while Jon Knott, Jason DuBois, and J.R. House rot in Ottawa. And while Payton and Hernandez are out the bench consists of Bynum, one of Paul Bako/Alberto Castillo, and Chris Gomez. Just awful roster management all together.

[Ksyrup]

Great night of ball all around.

[Ksyrup]

Strange/amazing story about Greinke's grandparents dying within hours of each other.


Greinke takes leave after deaths in family

By BOB DUTTON

The Kansas City Star


Zack Greinke left the club Wednesday morning to fly to Florida to attend the funerals of his maternal grandparents. His departure came just hours after he pitched six strong innings in Tuesday’s victory over the Blue Jays.

Greinke’s grandparents, Mary L. and John B. Wilkin, died within hours of each other last Thursday and Friday after coming to Kansas City to attend his start Thursday against Boston.

“He’s been walking around with a heavy heart, obviously,” Bell said. “It’s a tough thing, but it shows a little of his toughness as well — to be able to deal with what he’s had personally, and to do what he’s done professionally. That’s pretty awesome.”

The services are this afternoon in Orlando, Fla. Greinke is expected to rejoin the club Friday in Baltimore.

“I’m doing OK,” he said. “I’m worried about my mother, but she seems to be doing a little better than she was a few days ago.”

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Terps

Ugh, Sam Perlozzo needs to be fired. I DVR'ed the game since Loewen was pitching. Outstanding matchup between him and Verlander. He walked a little too many (4 in 5 innings), but he had the Tigers flailing at his pitches all night.

Anyway, onto why Perlozzo needs to be fired. Loewen goes 5 innings, and he decides to let all the bullpen guys pitch one inning. Parrish has filthy stuff, as evidenced by striking out the side in the 6th. Parrish also used to be a starter so he can throw more than one inning. Gone after the 6th. Bradford, Baez, Ray, Walker, and Williamson followed, all an inning each.

Walker, Parrish and Ray can all go more than one inning. So in the 12th it comes down to Kurt Birkins, who hasn't pitched yet for the O's this year, and gives up a grand slam. For one, he shouldn't be on the team to begin with. Brian Burres made the team out of spring training and got sent down before he even pitched in a game.

Not to mention the fact that Freddie Bynum is on the team while Jon Knott, Jason DuBois, and J.R. House rot in Ottawa. And while Payton and Hernandez are out the bench consists of Bynum, one of Paul Bako/Alberto Castillo, and Chris Gomez. Just awful roster management all together.

As a Tigs fan I thoroughly enjoyed last nights game but I couldn't begin to speculate why he used 8 pitchers in a 12 inning 0-0 game for the life of me.

Also - -Corey Patterson is the worst player in baseball. Watching this series it amazes me how someone so talented can not understand the game. Like in Tuesdays game, all tied up, runner on second with no outs, he pops up first pitch swinging. That is on the coaches for probably not giving him the sign but he needs to be aware that it's fundamental ball. There are other examples but that's most glaring.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Strange/amazing story about Greinke's grandparents dying within hours of each other.

My wife and I were talking about this last night. Not for the family (in this case, Greinke, for instance), certainly, but for the two individuals- that's the way to go. We both agreed that going within hours of each other, after being together for 50+ years would actually be preferrable to one person living a lot longer after having the biggest part of their life gone.

SI

[Terps]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

As a Tigs fan I thoroughly enjoyed last nights game but I couldn't begin to speculate why he used 8 pitchers in a 12 inning 0-0 game for the life of me.

Also - -Corey Patterson is the worst player in baseball. Watching this series it amazes me how someone so talented can not understand the game. Like in Tuesdays game, all tied up, runner on second with no outs, he pops up first pitch swinging. That is on the coaches for probably not giving him the sign but he needs to be aware that it's fundamental ball. There are other examples but that's most glaring.

Patterson will be gone after this season hopefully. I'm hoping at the trade deadline they move him for something, I don't care what. He's a FA, and a Boras client, so he's gone likely. But, yeah, he swings at everything. Once he strings together some homers that becomes apparent too, because then that's all he tries to do. His speed is valuable, but I could do without him.

Also, I just noticed that I put those guys are rotting in Ottawa, still used to typing that. My mistake, they're rotting in Norfolk.

[Ksyrup]

Speaking of a great talent/athlete who doesn't appear to get the game...did anyone see the double whammy boneheaded running mistakes Carl Crawford made last night in the 9th inning? Tie game, man on 1st, he hits a b all down the line in RF. The 3B coach holds the runner at third, except Crawford apparently doesn't bother to look ahead and just keeps going through 2B. I know what he was thinking - I'm so fast I can get a triple out of this. And he probably could have, except there was, uh, somebody already occupying third.

So once he makes his way to third, the guy on third does the only thing he can - he takes off for home to make sure the faster guy is at least left at 3B, and who knows, maybe they'll botch the play and the Rays will get a cheap run out of it. But no, not only do they tag him out easily between 3B and home, but then Crawford inexplicably starts jogging back to 2B during the rundown, and is easily thrown out at 2B for the double play. Instead of second and third, no one out, they've got no none on and 2 out. End of inning. Bottom of the 9th, Morneau hits a HR over Crawford's head, and it looks like Crawford had a shot at it, but it would have been difficult. But damn, I haven't seen baserunning that bad since my daughter's last T-ball season.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Speaking of a great talent/athlete who doesn't appear to get the game...did anyone see the double whammy boneheaded running mistakes Carl Crawford made last night in the 9th inning? Tie game, man on 1st, he hits a b all down the line in RF. The 3B coach holds the runner at third, except Crawford apparently doesn't bother to look ahead and just keeps going through 2B. I know what he was thinking - I'm so fast I can get a triple out of this. And he probably could have, except there was, uh, somebody already occupying third.

So once he makes his way to third, the guy on third does the only thing he can - he takes off for home to make sure the faster guy is at least left at 3B, and who knows, maybe they'll botch the play and the Rays will get a cheap run out of it. But no, not only do they tag him out easily between 3B and home, but then Crawford inexplicably starts jogging back to 2B during the rundown, and is easily thrown out at 2B for the double play. Instead of second and third, no one out, they've got no none on and 2 out. End of inning. Bottom of the 9th, Morneau hits a HR over Crawford's head, and it looks like Crawford had a shot at it, but it would have been difficult. But damn, I haven't seen baserunning that bad since my daughter's last T-ball season.

I thought you hated baseball? Get out of this thread!

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

... Corey Patterson is the worst player in baseball.

Christian Guzman says thank you.

[Atocep]

Alfonso Soriano has looked like the player everyone thought he was before he went to the Nationals.

[Chief Rum]

Not that it's Dice-K versus Felix, but it looks like Dice-K will match up with Jered Weaver on Monday in another must see game. Apparently Dice-K can't miss going up against the best young pitchers in the game. I assume he starts against Verlander after that.

[billethius]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Not that it's Dice-K versus Felix, but it looks like Dice-K will match up with Jered Weaver on Monday in another must see game. Apparently Dice-K can't miss going up against the best young pitchers in the game. I assume he starts against Verlander after that.

Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by billethius

Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.

Yup, the local sabermetric society here at FOFC made much the same predictions of doom and gloom last year about him. It has yet to pan out, going back to all levels of play on record he has been playing at.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by billethius

Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.

He gave up 15 homers in 123IP, that sounds about right. Maybe a little low, but not enough to make a huge difference.

Scouts were actually much more down on him as a major leaguer than the "sabermetric society" (not talking about FOFC, I have no idea what was written about him last year), in general. Where Weaver was lucky last year was in balls in play. He had a .239 BABIP so at the very least you can expect him to regress to the mean this year, if not go over it a bit. He still projects as a pretty damn good pitcher, though. He'll be fine, but he just won't be as good as he was last year.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by billethius

Weaver had a nice year last year, but I'm not terribly impressed with him. His flyball rate was super high last year and the number of those that went for homeruns was awfully low. I'm pretty sure most studies show HR/Flyball is fairly consistent for all pitchers across the league, so I'd expect Weaver to not get quite so lucky this season.

By the end of last season Weaver's home runs allowed per flyball rate had roughly normalized. The more unusual numbers were his batting average on balls in play allowed and runners left on base percentage.

As we know from DIPS theory and studies, major league level pitchers have very little to no control over the number of balls in play that go for hits against them - this is primarily controlled by your defense, and to a lesser extent the ballpark and luck. Last year Weaver allowed just a .236 batting average on balls in play, compared to the normal rate of .270+.

Additionally, his LOB% (the percentage of runners allowed that don't score) was a phenomenal 86.2%. Consider that just about every other pitcher last year with close a full season's worth of innings had rates between about 67% and 77%, and it seems highly likely that Weaver was rather fortunate last year and probably shouldn't be expected to be quite that effective at stranding base runners this year.

Now, that's not to say Weaver can't or won't be a good starting pitcher this year, just that the evidence suggests he benefited from quite a bit of luck last year.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Alfonso Soriano has looked like the player everyone thought he was before he went to the Nationals.

Now if only Brad Wilkerson would start to look like even half the player I thought he'd be...

[billethius]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

By the end of last season Weaver's home runs allowed per flyball rate had roughly normalized. The more unusual numbers were his batting average on balls in play allowed and runners left on base percentage.

As we know from DIPS theory and studies, major league level pitchers have very little to no control over the number of balls in play that go for hits against them - this is primarily controlled by your defense, and to a lesser extent the ballpark and luck. Last year Weaver allowed just a .236 batting average on balls in play, compared to the normal rate of .270+.

Additionally, his LOB% (the percentage of runners allowed that don't score) was a phenomenal 86.2%. Consider that just about every other pitcher last year with close a full season's worth of innings had rates between about 67% and 77%, and it seems highly likely that Weaver was rather fortunate last year and probably shouldn't be expected to be quite that effective at stranding base runners this year.

Now, that's not to say Weaver can't or won't be a good starting pitcher this year, just that the evidence suggests he benefited from quite a bit of luck last year.

Yeah, the LOB% is huge. Take a look at Jarrod Washburn's last two years. Everything was pretty much identical except for his LOB, and his ERA rose by over a run.

Still, I wasn't saying Weaver isn't a valuable pitcher. He's probably above average with a deceptive delivery, which makes him a nice piece to a team. I just wouldn't expect him to be challenging for any Cy Young awards anytime soon.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by billethius

Yeah, the LOB% is huge. Take a look at Jarrod Washburn's last two years. Everything was pretty much identical except for his LOB, and his ERA rose by over a run.

Still, I wasn't saying Weaver isn't a valuable pitcher. He's probably above average with a deceptive delivery, which makes him a nice piece to a team. I just wouldn't expect him to be challenging for any Cy Young awards anytime soon.

Agreed. If he can keep up his strikeout rate and his strikeout to walk ratio, he can be pretty successful even with the extreme flyball rate, but I have my doubts that he'll be joining the ranks of Santana and Halladay (and perhaps King Felix) as elite AL starters.