Draft dilemma

[TheseBoots]

Question is based on my current SP campaign, but could equally apply to MP I'm sure.

Due to some canny trading with a team I thought might tank I find myself with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft whereas I usually pick late 20s/early 30s. I'm not used to such rich options! The number 1 pick is already in. The Giants took a CB who looks like the best player in the draft and by my reckoning projects to be 80+ rated.

I'm curious how other GM's would analyse the 2 pick.

OPTION 1: Quarterback

Spoiler

Reasons to draft:
- projects to be a top 5 QB in the league
- would be a BPA pick
- feels a bit outrageous to let him slide to 3

Reasons to not draft:
- I already have a top 10 QB with a reasonable cap hit, fully developed and only 6 seasons on the clock.

OPTION 2: Cornerback

There are several good looking corners...

Spoiler

Reasons to draft:
- project to be top 5-10 CB's in the league
- teams in my division all have very good QB/WR1 combos as they have been drafting high for several seasons. therefore pass defense is highly relevant.
- my secondary overall is pretty average and year on year I rate middle of the pack for pass D

Reasons not to draft:
- 2 overall feels a bit rich?
- After 4 years they are going to ask for a LOT of money and I historically haven't paid much for secondary (I usually prefer to spend on the D-line)

OPTION 3: Receiver

There are several WR's I would expect to rate 70-ish

Spoiler

There are more - these two project the best IMO

Reasons to draft:
- very high potential impact
- my WR1/2 are currently 7 and 9 seasons in so age is catching up with them soon

Reasons to not draft:
- I already have a couple of good young receivers to replace the aging pair
- I could do with a tackle...

OPTION 4: Off Tackle

Spoiler

Reasons to draft:
- I need a tackle as my starters are 11-12 years and declining
- I don't usually draft high enough to take a premium tackle

Reasons not to draft:
- This guy looks the best of a poor tackle class but I expect him to project mid-50s overall which seems a very poor use of the 2 overall pick
- I do not like that run block bar!
- I'm not drafting this guy at 2

OPTION 5: Running Back

There are a couple of RBs available but none of them look like monster 70+ guys to me. Anyway, I'm not sure I like RB at 2 even though I get a lot of production out of them - you can get good RBs later who can rush 1000 yards for you.

OPTION 6: Trade out

If I'm not taking that QB I could probably trade out with a teams who wants a QB and maybe pick up some more value. I'm sure in MP I would have people falling over themselves to get that 2 pick but this is SP so who knows?

So, I'm curious how you guys think about a situation like this and what your instincts would tell you to do? I'm not so much looking for the answer as fishing for alternate views on how to process the options. In particular, does it make sense to let that QB slide down the board even though I have a good option already?

Maybe Chicago's FO can pick up a few pointers for next season's draft =)

[MIJB#19]

For me it would really depend on how much I'm trusting my current QB, because Shields looks like a no-brainer pick if my QB situation is anywhere between dreadful to decent. If I love my top10 QB, I'd try to stick with him, attempt to trade down a little bit and hope to get WR Hoffman. Any other position, not worth spending a top4 pick on, maybe not even top7.

Although I can be suckered into a stud DT or CB in such a spot, but it's not the right return of value. In that sense, CB Beyer wouldn't be my pick in the top10, he's missing a bit here or there. A complete LB or monster LT or RT or would be teasing in the late top10, but LT Wharry is just a bit too early in that spot.

[TheseBoots]

Thanks for your thoughts MIJB, I appreciate you laying out how you might analyse the various options.

I think you are right to zoom in on the QB Shields. It's so obvious that he is going to be great that it makes the decision difficult IMO. When I was analysing the draft class I didn't factor in a scenario where he didn't get picked at 1 overall =) I was certain the Giants would take him, particularly as they don't have a great talent at QB already.

As I said, I really like my QB. I picked him second round and he started life around 55 potential but he has crept and crept up to low 70s and has pretty great bars (timing apart) and high avoid ints (75-ish).

Where I found it hard to decide was actually thinking ahead a few years, when Shields is fully developed and ready but my current QB Winters is still great and experienced. What happens then? Just let one go in FA? It seems like that would end up being a waste of the 2 pick (potentially) whereas e.g. Hoffman as you highlighted could have been putting up multiple 1000 yards seasons by then...

I don't very often have one good QB. Potentially having two didn't compute!

(As an aside I already played out this situation. I traded down to 6 and still got Hoffman as there were incredibly 5 60+ rated QBs in this draft!)